Summer 1998

-
ummer
leaner Air
Ir a
leaner Future
controllina
pollution
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Rasearch Updates
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pages 4 5
Human Impact on Yelbw Rfuer Whler Management
New Penslon Investment Strategy Could Alleuiate
Economic Impacts of Populatfon Agfng
Polfcy O p t h sfor tbe Sustainable Development
of tbe Russian Forest Sector
Feature
Transbormdary Afr Ponution
inside IlASA
pages 17
- 19
IXASA Scbolars on Tour fn Sweden
IIASA Cooperatfon wftbEuropean Observatory
New Internatfonal CoIlsboratfonon Population Studies
Meetings, Awards and Appointments, In MmorIam
Researcb Grants
l a w Book
Global Energy Perspectives
Ootions is a maaazine featurina the
activities d IIAS~,located in "
Laxenburg, Austria. IlASA is an
interdisci~iinaw,nongovernmental
research'instititionsponsored by a
consortium of National Member
Organizations in Asia, Europe and
North America. The Institute's research
focuses on sustainability and the
human dimensions of global change.
The studies are international and
interdlscipllnary, provid~ngtlmely ana
relevant nformation and options for the
scientific community, policy makers
and the public.
Opfions is prepared by the Gifice of
information.
Editor: Mary Ann Williams
Contributing Editors:
Margaret MacDonald,
Christoph Schneider
DesignIDTP:
Peter D. Reisinger-Gralic-Design
Printed by Holzhausen. Vienna
Copyright O 1998
IlASA
A-2361 Laxenburg. Austria
Phone: +43 2238 807
Fax: +43 2238 71 313
E-mail: inf@iiasa.ac.at
Web: www.iiasa.ac.at
Sections of Options may be reproduced wiih acknowledgement to IIASA.
Please send a copy ofany reproduced
material to the M i c e of Information.
The vlews and otnnlons exoressed
hereln do not necess~r~ly
represent h e
positions of IlASA or its supporllng
Vision for the
21" Century
IIASA strategy focuses
on future demands of
its key customers:
decisionmakers.
At die June Council meeting, I
presented a draft statement on
IIASA's Future researcli :~gend:i,
as well as on needed or@iniz:~tional reforms. The st;~temrnt.
Vivion for the Zlst Ckntnry, is
designed t o provoke h~rtherdiscussion :il>out IIASA's Future not
only within the Council, hut illso
by the entire IIASA community.
It reflects input from many of
IIASA's project leaclers, as well
as From key administrative staff.
I take this opportunity to highlight so~ilcconclusions of the
statement.
To remain relevant in the 21st
cmtury. IIASA must satisfy the
needs of our customers: governtnent and industry lraders who
nuke decisions about complex
issues such ;is energy use. food
security, population, health. and
research priorities. In facing
these difficult questions, decisionrn:~kers require sciencet,asetl policy insight. This,
intleetl, should k Ilh'iA's "product." one step heyontl the
research results themselves.
IIASA's multidisciplinary studies
call ;mtl should illi~minate tlie
svucrure ant1 clynamics o f the
complex issues posed by mocle m society, and thus offer special benefits to ihese custoliiers.
The Institute musr both l~uildon
its c u ~ r m tstrengths and br:~ncli
our into new ;ireas. I believe thar
IlkSA shoultl base its future
resrarch program on three core
themes: Energy and Teclinolohy:
Population zinc1 Society: and
Narur:~l Resources :ind Environmmr. Our plan is thar one or
mole larger pri)iects shoi~ld
address a c h of tlicsc a]-eas.with
considemhle co1lalx)r~rionamong
them. Currently, IIASA's Energy,
Population, Land-Use Ch:inge.
Forestry, and Transhounda~yAir
Pollution projects exemplify
rnajor research projects that constitute building hlocks of the
Institute's f i ~ t i ~vsearch
~~r
profile.
To ensure that IIASA anticip;~tes
customer needs rather than
merely reacting to requests, the
vision sr:itemenr ala) proposes a
fourtli theme, Future Research,
rlut woultl fund exploratory projects in which tlie l~isriti~te
has a
comp~ri~tive
advantage, and that
target IIASA's main clients.
Examples woulcl he wurk related to the glol~alizationof the
internationdl economy, or to the
i~nplieationsof expanding, worldwide commimiwtit)n and inhrmution systems.
In addition, TIASA plans to
strengthen its geographic focus
on Asia, E~~rope.
and Rl~sski,as a
complemenr to our disciplina~y
approaches. We believe that the
ch:illenges posed I>y expanding
econo~nies in Asia, Europan
integration, and the economic
and social rest~ucturingof the
fonner Soviet Union will top the
agendas of the decisionmakers
in the 21st century who are
IIASA's primary custonlers.
Ar its June nieeling, the Council
heard the report of the indeprnclent evaluation committee on
IIASA's ~lletl~odological
projects.
all of which received high
praise. We must find ways to
integrate the findings and activities of these etForts more closely
into the work of the core projects addressing our three prirn:~ry themes. At the same time, we
intend to phase out so~iieof the
smaller projects, which, altliough
they have produced excellent
results, c:lnnot s u p l x ~ die
t clear
placement of IIASA at the nexus
of intnrli,wipl'ia~y:~l>plird~~.w.ur.li.
Thus. ~rhxusingtlx re.warch progmm also involves modifying
the struaure thn>ugh w l k h we
address our ;ireas of interest.
Finally, a strong future for IlASA
depends upon an assured
income, and upon expanded
melnbership. The vision state
Inent calls upon our National
Memher Organizations to increase their efforts to ensure that
their governments meet dues
obligation.., and to enlist the aid
OF government oFficials in
encoilraging new countries to
join IIASA or urging former
menibers to rejoin.
Wsron fur the 2lst Centitry only
(iutltnes the directions that I
lbelte%e IIASA sIit)i~ldtake. The
details wmain to k tilled in. I
urge all meml,ers of tlie IlASA
romrnwuty to read the docunrmt, which is availdl~leon the
IIASA home page, ant1 give me
your input.
0
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CHINA'S WAT
SUPPLY; PENSIONSm
RUSSIAN FORESTS
Human Impact on Yellow
River Water Management
The limited availability of hoth suitable land and water places severe
comtraints on run11 development in
Northern China, a largely agricultural region characterized by arid or
semi-wid conditionf. Assurance of
adeqi~dtr water supply depends
upon rational lnanagelnent of the
Yellow River, which supplies most
of the water for the area. In conjunction with IIASA's Land-Use and
Land-Cover Change project, Zdzlskw
Knctmarek, head of the Water
Resources Division, Institute of
Geophysics in Warsaw, investigated
the impan of human activities on
water resounws in the Yellow River
basin, and developed recommendations for water management srntegies based on the findings.
Rationalizing water use and expanding storage ~"dpaciryemergrd as the
most effective strategies for increasing the rohustness of the Yellow
River water resoume systems under
incredsingly unpredicrable levels of
supply and demand. Case studies
for the Jinghe and Luanhe suhbasins showed that construction of
additional storage reservoirs may
improve the reliability of water supply significantly. China must also
find ways to improve control of
floods and sedimentation in the
lower reaches of the Yellow River.
The smdy also took acruunt of possible climate change and concluded
that, overall, population and economic growth in China will have a
far Inore significant impact in
putting incrrasing stress on water
supply in the region than climatic
shihs. Although the spatial resolution of cnrrent ~ n d e l sis roo cozrrsc
to provide a hasis for predictive
analysis of water resources, si~nola[ions indicate [hot the hy~lrological
processes in mosl of the Yellow
River basin are not highly sensitive
to rhe r.inge of glohal drculation
Rafio11ol mana#mml of C h k . h
Yellow R l m Is CNCISI to adequate
. . ..
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model-based climate change scenarios tested in the study. Re.xarch
shoi~lclcontinue to refine the models, which in turn would improve
predictions regarding future water
resources and demand, and permit
the evak~ationof specific adaptive
responsrs in important economic
subregions in Nonhern China. The
results would contribute to fomulation of an effective long-term %ater
management plan, based upon different combinations of climate
change scelvarios and econ~)mic
growth assumptions.
Pot M e r information,c o n e
Giintber Ffscbet;
e-mail:fsbe@iiasa.ac.at
New Pension Investment
Strategy Could Alleviate
Economic Impacts of
Population Aging
Investing retirement savings from
rapidly aging dev.elopec1 countries in
the emerging markets d still-youthfill developing countries could ;~lle-
vlate, but by no mean5 el~mmnate.
the macroeconomic mpam of population agmg, accordmg to research
hy IIASA's Social SecurrIy Reforrn
project
A model developed by project
leader Landi MacKellar and Helmut
Reisen of the Organisation for
Economic
Co-operation
and
Development (OECD) Development
Centre was used to qinntify the
global outlook for major macroeconomic variables as a function of
changing population age distributions in fast- and slow-aging
regions. The key variables studied
were economic growth rates, saving
rates, international capital flows. the
level of prospzclive capital returns,
and the distribution of income
herween the working- and retirement-age populations.
The model was used to compare
two scenarios for the period
1995-2100: a baseline scenario that
extrapolated current international
investment patterns and a "glol~ali2ation" scenario in which world
problems to overcome include o b s o
Iete technology, low productivity
and forest-threatening
development
A new paper cc-authored by Sen
NrLrson and Anaa~iy Shvidenko of
IIASA'g project on Sustainable Boreal
Forest Rmources and publish4 by
the Internanonal Union of Forestry
Research Organizatlonb suggests
policy r n ~ c m sfor Russia diat nught
lead to ecologicaliy, economically
and socially busta~nahle development. The suggested actlond cover
the full mn8e of sustamMe forestry
development, from fores~mdn~gemenr to the transportation sector to
foren monitoring. Overall pollcy
suggestions include:
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Net capital flows, fast- lo slow-aging counlries.
capital markets were assumed to
undergo rapid integratton. A deftning feature of the latter scenario was
that emerging-market assets were
assumed to represent a greater share
in the portfolios managed by financial institutions in developed countries.
A comparison of the two scenarios
indicated that, while international
diversification may anenuate negative macroeconomic impacrs of
aging in the N o h , such as a declining savings rate and a lower m e of
return to capital, reallocation of
investment is unlikely to reverse
these trends. Moreover, globalintion was estimated to cause significant, and therefore politically sensitive, fihifts in the distribution of
income hetween the working-age
and retirement-age uonulatwns in
both fan- and slow-agtng rqrons
- ..
wood for the world and as a aitrcai
stabihzer of the global climate
Everyolle h#s a stake m the mtelligent, susrainable development of
this resource
bean of Ruw~an forestry- has
been and continties to be anented
toward ecosystem and landscape
management, which ace crucial components of the sustainable develop
ment concept However, authorltanan political regimes, srrongiy centralized management, and the lack of a
sound economy have led to unsuc
tamable development of the forest
sector By the early 1990s. huge
pmhlem9 accumulated ~n the Soviet
fore%sector and were hlnher aggravated by the tnnsitioning economy.
Resvutrunng Russia's forest tndustry
wll be dNrcut and costly. Major
'Illhe
mgree of ores st
The paper, now availahle as IIASA
Interim Report No 034, m e d as a
background paper to the OECD
report ihlamtaining Prns[nncy u1 an
Ageing Soctetp "
industrial
Tbe development of forest sector
policies chat are consistent with the
overall envimnmenral, economic,
and social objectives of the government and the economic reform
already underway;
The idenrif~cationof the forest sector's potential contributions toward
global, national, and regional environmental and socioeconomic sustainable development, thus incnasing the political status of the furest
sector and allowing concrete ohjecrives for the sector to he set; and
The clarification of Russ~lblegal
and poltcy framework that currently
hinders the development ot the
Russian forest sector.
For hvther Information,
contact:
Sfen Nilson,
e-mail: nUssonOi*rsa ac at
ran sit ion
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POT hther information, concontact:
..~.
.....
..
Lands MacKeIlar,
e-marl mckeUar(Diiara.ac.at
....
Policy Options for the
Sustainable Development of
the Russian Forest Sector
R ~ ~ s i avast
' s forests, which make up
23 percent of the world's forest
areas, are a natural resource of g l o b
al economic and ecological importance, serving both as a source of
.s
_-*
To vteu the dqpee d m n d l i m in R W I I M lonsm, IlASA Z FonsIry pmtact divlded the
fmmsts into thma ute#&m vlrgn, MM
and mN,h t a
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'
INFORMATION
a N d
SIMULATION
Only one computer model has ever been at the center of major international environmental negotiations.That model is RAINS. Twice it has besn central to renegotiation of the
Convention on Long-rangeTransboundary Air Pollution, the umbrella convention regarding air pollution across all Europe. It also underpins the European Union policy and
directives on air pollution. Countries in Southeast Asia are turning to the model for help
with their growing air pollution problems.
With some 900 copies of RAINS delivered to governments, private firms, academic institutions, and environmental NGOs in more than 50 countries on four continents, RAINS is
one of the most successful integrated assessment tools yet devised.
Some ttme In 1999, reprrsentatives of 35 coilntrieb plan to sign an agreement tr2 ~harplylimit air pollution in Europe. The
agreemenr will comritute a fi~rthermilestone in effons IW protect Europe's natural environment and the health of irs p e o
ple. It will Hlso k a mtlexone in the appllcarion uf science to international polrcy.
For the first nme, negotiaxorr have addressed a complex range of related air pollutants and problem stmul~neoi~sly,
m
one negottatlon, r ~ t h e rthan adrctally isoiattng them in separate talks and pmtocols. Thts profound change in approach
has been possihle only because negotiators had the support of a .wphisticated computer model, the Regional Air
Pollution Information and Simubtson model-RAINS.
It is no exawmtion to say that without the RAMS model, o r s~methingi ~ k e11. the new multi-pollutant agreement could
not be negotiated. The cross-ltnkages anlong pdluwrs, pollutants and environment are numerous and ~vmplcx,and the
range of possible uade-oK* in the erunomy- m d enuironmenr I$ potentially ovelwheltning. RAINS q a n t z e s key d o n n a rion on sctencr, poltcy options and costs In one package. It helps negotiators to avoid getting sidetracked in scientific
minutiae and aUows them to concentrate on the .much fra pol~cies(or, more acnmtely, cornhinations of p1icie-J that
give the lxst balance of env~rc~nmmral
prorrctwn at rhe lowest possible cosrs.
MINS was the first computer m o ~ ever
l ~ placed at the center of negotrations for a major environmental agreement. the
1994 agreement by 35 countries to limit sulfur droxide enussons tn Europe. Subsequently, RAINS pl'ayed n central role rn
the creatton of the European Commission's 1995 Acidification Strategy Mort. recently it has supponed the development
of new, legally bindtng EU dirertives on air quality and emissions, those dvectives should be published late in 1998.
And, as mentioned above, RAINS is central to joint efforts by EU member cpuntries and the nations of Central and
Eastern Europe to stgn a truly comprehensive agmment covering four major
pollutants
Average grams sullur
per m' per year (1990).
Illis rolc-helping
Rovernments to identifji scientifically sound, cost+ffrctive
policies to combat air pollutio~preciselyFulfills the rask envisa~rdfor R4INS
Vuposlavia
I?y the IlASA scienttsn who conce~vrdthe mcxlel in 1983
l h e bllowing articles and illuswations ourline the model's development and trs
-
Hungary
Germany-We8
l5]
1
stnicnlse in 1998, the historic role it has played in negotiations, a n d a few
examples of its output. They highlight the central role of IIASA's
- Czech
Slovak Federal
Republics
end
Tcansboundary Air Pollution project, where a 12-member team works on the
RAINS model a n d related issues. llASA is the home of RAINS But the tn&d
continues
1a be
a collabnuve effon involving hundredv of sclentlsts.amund
the world. They roo are imporrant mcmben of the RAINS ream
Sources of sulfur deposited in
Austria, showing the importance of
transboundary fluxes: In 1990,
93 percent of the sulfur originated
outside the country
A Description
of the RAINS
Model
RAINS was one of the first successful integrated assessment
tools. It comprises a series of submodels and datahases that organize information in three broad
categories: pollution generation
and control options, including
costs; atmospheric transpon and
deposition; and impacts on the
environment.
2030. The European version has a
resolution of 150 by 150 kilometer%
RAINS-Asia is based on a one
degree by one degree grid.
reduce ozone levels to a given
standard for all of Europe? For the
worst-affected areas only? What is
the chrdpest way to stop acidification of forest soils in Bohemia?
What would he the impact of a
new emission standard for, say,
power plants on soil eutrophication? On acidification? On ozone
formation? RAINS gives answers to
such questions, usually within
minutes.
When RAINS was conceived in
1983, the project tram adopted four
guiding principles:
The model should be joinr!~
designed by scienli/ic experts
a n d poleizlial usrm Scientists
reviewed the model in detail
during its early development at
of
meetings.
a
series
Experienced bureaucrats and
policy makers--the intended
u s e r s a l s o attended the meet-
A second version of RAINS allows
the same sort of analyses for
Southeast Asia (see page 15). The
two versions have the same software and structure but different
databases.
The RAINS Model of Acidification and Tropospheric Ozone
Economic
activities
Emission control
pollcies
Environmental
targets
p
emissior
rn
emissions
Critical loads:
acidification
lis~ersion
p emissions
G l
L
emissior
Clitical loads:
u3
formation
1
v
tm~rr~on
control costs
In essence, RAINS is a scenariogenerating device that helps users
to understand the impacts of
future actions-or
inactionand
to design strategies to achieve
long-term environmental goals at
the lowest possible cost. With a
few hours of training, scientists.
bureaucrats, politicians, and other
nonteclinical usrrs can pose any
number of "what-if' questions to
RAINS. How much woi~ldit cost to
RAINS-A.ia covers 23 countries in
Southeast Asia, including China,
India, Indonesia, Japan, and the
Philippines. The European version
covers a11 of Europe as far east as
Russia's Ural Mountains. It includes
critical information on 1.3 million
separate ecasystems, some as small
as one square kilometer. Databases
and sinlulations for the European
version extend from 1990 to 2010;
for South?ast Asia from 1990 to
Environmental
Impacts
in@ and provided significant
input. Development of RAINS
was then and is now a tmly
international, multidisciplinary
effort. Economists, energy
experts. engineers, meteorologists. soil scientists, forestry
experts, limnologists and other
experts from some 20 countries
took pan in designing RAINS.
Today, literally hundred5 of scientists contribute ro perioclic
rrviews and opcl~tingof nlodel
coo~ponent%
and dataha.ws.
7he nt(zlel sborrlci hc. trrrdrtlrrr.
The first versions of RAINS
bcu.wl exclusively on sulfur
dioxide poUutiun ($02
*ICioilnts
..
for ahout M percent of acidiwing emissions in Europe). The
chxrt on page X shows how
RAINS incoryx)rates ruols for
analysis of nitrogen r~xides.
ammonia. and, mmt recently.
ozone. The next step will he a
module on particulate matter
(see page 16). Moduklr construction simplifies the tasks of
adding or revising mcnlels 2nd
the regular updating ~~fikvalxises.
.
StrbmudeLc should he ns simple
a r possible, but based on
detniled mwids. Meny of the
proressrs mmleled in RAINSthe shifting of p(dlurmts by
wind and weather, hlr example.
or the formation of oxmn--arr
Iwst sirnl~li~rc~i
hy I:irge research
modds. These models can take
hours to nln on a supereomputer-hardly
practical for 3
suhmodel. The answer is to
find, or create, twls that ~niniic
the outpin of rrsrarch modeis.
hut need only minutes of con>purer time. To model the distrihution of acidifying mmpounds, RAINS ailoprecl silnple
atmospheric transfer matrices
developed in Norway. When
IlASA scientists began work on
ozone pollution, there was no
simple model of ozone fonnntion. So, witti the help of colleagues in Norway and Berlin,
rhey made one (see page 14).
Hc~wcvrr,whew ctmplrxity is
it is tolerated, as in the
j~~srifird,
datatz&se ou~pping 1.3 million
.wpardte ecosystrms in Europe.
Tbt.model shorrld haw irnlemctiw irzp111suilbjle-dble choices
and cleurgr*phic oufptlf Even
the first versions of RAINS
mncnrpomtecl simple menus that
helped uwr, deviw tthc~rown
.rr'ennrios. Thc currcnt version
of KAINS has a Winrlc~ws-style
~~iterf.~ec.
;tnd nins on 81 persold ru~~,putrr.
IIASA hss sold more th:m MO copies
of RAINS and the usrr's t l ~ ~ n uro
sl
gnucrnmcn~s,universities. rrsearch
instituii~~ns,
nangovernmental environmental organiiations. and privatr firms (especially companies in
thr mvrgy w l o r ) . Universiries in
several Eumpran countries and in
Canada cumntly usr RAINS as a
teaching aid. Ir has h a a central
pan of many puhliskd .xientitic
sturlies, includiw IlASA studies of
forest growd~. glohil energy use.
and climate change. RAINS has also
a r v e d as a ha.u for national acidification models in Finland. Hungary.
and Llhine.
But hy Far the must iniponant we of
RAINS has k e n in the negot~at~on
of intcrn:~tional agreements to control air pollution in Europe.
llAsA tias sold more man m
copies ts ofw to oustamers
mngicg from governments to
private H w . For information on
how te o&r RAINS, visH the
Web sibe at
www.iiasa.m.a~rchAP.
TransboundaryAir Pollution
St&, 1983 1998
-
Current sraff members are
marked*
Joseph Alcamo (USA)
Markus Amann (Austria)'
Project leader since 1991
Marina Baldi (Italy)
Armro Barragan (Norway)
Jerry Bamicki (Poland)
Stuan Batternan (USA)
Lmrich Bertok (Slovalua).
Andreas Beyer (Germany)
Giuseppe Calori (Italy)
Serguei Chibaev (Ukmlne)
Janusz Cofala (Poland).
Lourdes Cornelm (Ph~hppines)
Juzer Dhondia (India)
Pet- Dorfner (Hungary)
Marc Doubsoo (Russia)
Robert Gardner (USA)
Mdrgret Cattslehen (GermanyP
Bngitte Gromus (Austr~a)
Frantisek Gyarfas (SlovakiaY
Jean-Paul Henelingh
(Netherlands)
Chris Heyes (UK)'
Maria Holmberg (Finland)
L e n Hordijk (Netherlands)
Project leader 1984 - 1387
Vicky Hsiung
Yang Jianxin W.R. China)
Juha K21liXn (Finland)
Pekka Kalrppi (Finland)
Monir Khondker (Bangladesh)
Rainer Kurz (Austria)
Ger Klaassen (Nethedsnds)
Zbigniew Klimonr (Poland).
Gabor Kornai (Hungary)
k o ~ Kropp
d
(ISSK)
Seung-Bok Lee (Korea)'
Ralph klunann (Gerniany)
Rarbar;~Liihken (Gemany)
Anniki MPkeB (Finland)
Tomasz Mroczek (Poland)
Andries Nentjes (Netherlands)
Krzysztof Olendrzynski (Pol;~~xl)
Xander Olsthoorn (Netherbnds)
(Lm
S e w i Pitrclvanov (USSR)
Sergei Popov (USSR)
MaXimilian Posch (Austria)
Jose Potting (Nctherkmds)
I'eter RaffeLsixqer (Austria)
Eliodoro Runca (Italy)
Pmject leader 1983
Wc,lCgane, Schupp (Ai~stria)'
Roderick Shaw (Canada)
Project leader 1987 19'3
Shan&Gyco Shim (Korea)'
b e Sormsen (Urnmark)
Frank Springmann (Germany)
Senna Syri (Finland)'
Michael Sutt(m (USA)
Wward Taffel (USA)
Dirk Torn (Nrtllerlands)
Alfred T~kenmilller(Cirtnany)
Wilkmijn Tuinntra (Netlierl;mds)
Hany Valentine (USA)
Charlotte Wa1.w-Jonson (Sweden)
Achi~nWittmOB 1Cermany)
Laura Wright (LISA)
Mioko Yamada CJqmn)
I'etrr Zilpft.1 (Austrhl)
-
RAINS and its
Role in
Negotiations
Tlir p:~stdec:liIr 1x1s secn cxrr;~r,rclin:lry shifts in t l l r \T3y5 tlxll
Eurr,p':ln
countries n~gntiareeffons
to l i ~ n i t air ~iollutiori. Cortil)uter
rn<xleling,once ;I pcriplieoll aid. 11:~s
mrwcd to tllc \?cly 11c:lfl of negntiat i o n . This 113s radicrlly altered tlie
way goverrnllcnts think :rlx)ul air
pollution pr~,hle~ris
and tliv 1v:ty tIr:rt
they se:lrch fol- snlutions.
hl~xlerneflons to contrnl air p~,llution in Europe hegan in tlie 1970s.
pmnipted hy cnnccrns over :lcid
ti tin. I k i t i s l i srirntist H.A. Snlitir first
u.trned crf [lie prnl,lcrii in iS71. A
cmutty kitrr. the :~cidityof prc',ipitation in Eurupc 1i:rd increased at
leilsl tell-fol<l,
Studies in tlrc 1970s confirtiled that
pollur;rnts ohcn tcl\,eled long disnnces I~cforefalling a1 e:rnh. I n
1979 [lie Convention on Long-r.tnge
Tfitnshound;~ry Air Pollution w:ls
incluiling :111
signed lhy 35 r~>unrrius.
swtes in Europe. the IISA. :~nd
Gtnada. l l i e convention was negoti:lted through the LiN Economic
Co~iimissinnfr)r Eurt>pr, i r Genevah;~.*.d l)ody tltat was then onr o f t l i r
few intern:rti(,n:rl organi7ari<1nstliol
I>n)ltglit tqgctlier Eurr>pe;tn countries lrotii 1135t arid West. l l r r L-YECI; convention a.<,uld l)rcomc a
ffitn~cworkfc~rsul,sequent cffons to
litnit air ~ o l l u t i ~ t i .
The First Steps
Initi;tl efforrs f~xuseirdon ; ~ e i uin.
~ l In
1985. LO p:llticx to llle conventi<m
signed 3 prot<xc>Ist~itingthirt 11); IlX3
they \\uuLl rc-duce unnual eriiissi<~ns
and ."cupwtseof sultitr dioskle. tlic,
nuin u n ~ r crJ3ciilificari<1n,
r
hy nl l c w ~
30 pelrrnl. crnup;irrrl to 1984 le\>cls.
.4 itnif~)rrn perccnt:rge rut. \vhile
I>etter tlian nothing, is cruilc :lnd
ineffirienl. It ignolrs that Somv
en)systcms arc very smsiri\,c \vliilc
otllrrs Are nor: if the g<r:ll i s 11, prtltfct tlie ?n\,imnmrnt. i t mtkcs littlc
scnsc 10 cut emissions if rliey f:rll in
they do no IY,I~I~I,
places I
tVori,over, :~cr~~ss-tl?e-l~~x~rcl
e-~tls<lo
I
1:lhc inlrl :lccounl tliat snnic.
emissions CJIl lie cut murc clieaply
:in11 quickly tli;~notlicm.
fitr pn~tocolw;rs due II,r renegurkttion. ;i t:lsk f<)rrc of tlie I;N-ECE
noted diat:
An integrated assessment
model that can assist
in cost-effectiveness
analysis is now
available. ... [This task force]
recommends that the RAINS
model be used by Parries to
the Convention, the
Executive Body, and varlous
subsidiary bodies.
This \vos :rn historic rrsnlutinn. For
the first tinir. a11 p,ulics 10 :I rii:~jur
intem:ai<)nal liegtkttion ;tc'~e-t.pleil
one conlputcr model :mil :~grccilto
m:rke it :I key tool in their negorktrinns. The nr:trrst p a c ~ l l roccurrril
l
elill-ing tlie iC)70sncgntktrion of the
u f the Sca: solne nryoti.rling
tc.;trns from large countries allowed
smtller dcle&itions to ttre their sill]I>ut this n7;is done
ukltion tii~~dels.
infortil:~lly. KAINS. ihy contrast.
would pl:~y:I ccntnll rr,lr in rencgotkltir,n ofthc sultilr prtlt<xnl.
Scientists and Negotiators:
A Process of Mutual Education
Bc.f<~l-c.
negoti:~tor:coold exploit the
tu
1mtenti:ll of RAINS. they i
understancl a bit :tl~our t l i r morlcl
:tnrl, Inure importantly. the concepts
Ihcliinrl it. Slo\vly. Elley c:tmc to
;tc<,ept the nccd to r ; ~ l ~ ccuts
t
in
ctiiirsi~>ns. Samplt. c;ilcularions
I
tlinn him, ~;lrgcteil cuts
couIi1 prntcr,t thc cnvin~nlncntlnolr
effectivvly tli:ln icrnss-tlic-ln,eril
cuts, ;inel at ;I frztction of tlie cost.
For their p:111,ncgr~ti~tnrs
sunsitized
scientists to pnlirical re:~litirs. A nnif<?rmcot in etliissions 1i:ts its vinws.
It apjn,a!s h~il:'rsrrpc.tcd cuts. Iby defif they olhli~c
inition. are i~ncrl~~:il:
sumr industrieb or countrir to cot
mnre and p.ry more than others.
they c:ln disron competition. For tlic
ncgotiaturs xnd t1lci1- pc~litic:~l
rnzrstcrs. this w:ls :I long lhriclgc ur cnrss.
liut thc potential hencfits ncrc simgre:tr to ignore.
],I! I~II
Over tirnc tlicy accvprcd tlic cnncept of "critical lm~rls"as :I key :rid
to ne#ntiati1)11.A critic;~l lo:t~l is :I
qu:tntitati\.r estimarc {IT an ccosyhtetu's vulnembility to polltrrion. For
tlic purposes <of the sulft~rneguri:iti<rn. it \\..I.; defined :IS the ;imr,unr of
:tcid ilrlh<~sitir)nrI1:rt :In tvosysrcfii
can 10lcr.11~':lnnu:!lly witliuut longterlii d:l~ii:~gc~.
\;ulncnrl,ility to acidity del~erirls on 1cic:iI crrnditic,ns.
CSPC-C~:III!.
boil c l i r n i i s y . soils
~lcrivc~
fr111ii
l
Ii:nehl~,!ie. for ex:~nl-
plr, rctdily al~sl~rl)
and ncut~;rlize
nckls. while glaniric soils can ntw.
Other ililpollant hrcnjrs r e soil
thi~'kness,precipimtic~n,and depc~silion of dust ;md (nhcr :tcicI-ncutmliring tnatc-~ials.
In 1992 negxi:itws a s k d llASA to
:rn:ilyze a mnge of scenarios for sulfur rmirsions, using the HAINS
tn(1del. Lincler (Jnr scen:rrio, only 7
pcrccnt o f rcosysrrms $voulcl
receive sulfi~r depositions alnrvc
their criric:tI 1o;rds (compared tc) .U)
percent in 1990). Wit11 minor :tlrrtations, tliis scenario. ;tnd a l l tliat il
implied for each u~untq,. Im~,me
t h r hasis of tlic Sccond Sulfur
Prorocol. signed in 1994. Ncvcr
Ircicire h;td intcrn:~tional negnti:lrors
: i l l o u ~ ~:Idcornpurer tuol to so cluqely gt~idediscussions and intli~enre
their outconie.
Shlftiog Approaches
The sulfur pn)to>col wits tlie l i n t
m;tjor agnwnent to ix driven h y
detailrd t;lrgers for envir~~nrnenml
protection. All pr)lluri<m control
txgl)tkttions irinl lo protect the en\+
ronmmt: I t . in fact, the acl1t:tl
negoti:aiotls ;lrc usually driucn ly
teclmolugy. Typically negntiators
stat? with :I prolilem (s;ty. :wid rain),
identify the main source (sulfitr
di<,xide). then sc;trcli fc)r tcclinologies to control emissions (in tliis
c;rse, flue-&as scmhhcr; tix pon,cr
plsints). Tlic result is ;in aglreliirnr
to :rdopt t l ~ ehlxsc;~v:til;rl~leteclinoly
i t 1 the I11,pc th~it tliis will
reduce t l i r pmhlerii.
As nt~teclal)ove, this npproilrh does
not ;rlu~ays succwcl. RAINS allows
t1sa.s to st:m nt the other end of the
pollution chain. Kathcr than hcgin
r\.itli aveilalhle wclinologir'al fines.
tlic model llrlps nrgoriatow set
clear. me:tsitral~lr goals Tor mvirontnental pn)te~lion.t l i m works hackward to se wli:lr c~,mhinatic)ns 1)f
technologies and emissions cc~ntml
[x)lirirs would satisfy these goals.
and :a v l x u cx)st.
This -cFfecrs-hc-sed' irppr(,ach t(1
an;llysis is now also :rccepted hy the
Rtropr;,n
Ilnlon. In 1995 the
t'11r0i3c:ui Comniission proposed an
Acidification Strategy Imscd laqcly
on atlculations cirrried out ar IlASA
with the RAIKS model. The pmposa1 w:ts l i r ~ v i l ydrhated. with some
memlwr ~(luntriessaying i t w;ts t o l j
stringent. Rut froni t k ~ dcl,;rtc
t
two
p~'inrs of consensus aiierged: first.
the effects-l);lsnl :~ppm:fc~li
\rz:rs the
right one; :lnd %contl tile niodrls
and riicth(xls usecl by the cc~intiiission \vere :iIso :~pprrrpri;~tc.
+
A
M u l t i p l e
A p p r o a c h
t o
C l e a n e r
A i r
The tigums show how an illustrative multi-polluwnt emi.ssion contr~)lscenario c-dlcdated by RAINS would impmve the environmental situation for acidication (top row) and ground-level ozone (l>ottum).Thrmaps on the left portray the status in
1990, while the nraps on the right indicate lhc envisaged changes for the year 2010 resulting from the enBssion reductions
calc~~lated
by RAINS (page IZ).l'his scewario is one of several produccd by IIASA, using the RAINS model.at the request of the
European Commission and the ilepotiating parties of the lJN/ECE Convention on Long-rangeTransboundary Air Pollulion.
Acidification
Ozone
Number of summu days exceeding
the World Health Organization's
ozone hcdlth gtnidelines (60 ppb.
e~ghthours mean). based cm a fiveyear avrrage of meteon>lo@calconditions.
REDUCING
EMISSIONS
FOR
A
CLEANER
ENVIRONMENT
Percentage emission reductions, and control costs in the year 2010 (related to the year 199O).for a RAINS illustrative emission
contml scenario aimed at simultaneous improvenients of acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone. For more
details, check nut the reports availahlr at http://zi~urw.iiflsfl.ac.fll/-rains.
Changes in emissions
compared to 1990
SO2
NO,
NHs VOC
m
I
Emission control costs
(million ECUJyr)
on top of
Total
already
committed
measures
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
-53%
-54%
-63%
-49%
-75%
-89%
-28%
-56%
-64%
-71%
-75%
-47%
-63%
-33%
-90%
-63%
-63%
-51%
-39%
-65%
-64%
-18%
-33%
-55%
-64%
-46%
-33%
-32%
-43%
-60%
-16%
-41%
-9%
-21%
-32%
-47%
-10%
-5%
-18%
-14%
-59%
-8%
-2%
-15%
-16%
-38%
-68%
-47%
-50%
-56%
-66%
-33%
-59%
-43%
-63%
-67%
-43%
-36%
-55%
-66%
1125
2250
470
730
9966
13916
976
391
8521
88
3862
1406
5571
1166
7332
0
840
3
0
2376
3187
6
49
49 1
5
941
181
62
0
1065
EU-15
-77%
-55%
-28%
-56%
57770
9206
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia-H.
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Noway
Poland
Moldova
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Switzerland
FYR Macedonia
Ukraine
Yugoslavia
-23%
-47%
-21%
-72%
-70%
-93%
-37%
-68%
-53Y0
-50%
-35%
-70%
-54%
-82%
-55%
-86%
-87%
-33%
-2496
-79%
-59%
50%
-55%
-34%
-31%
-4%
-70%
-13%
-34%
-2396
-28%
-31%
-44%
-61%
-50%
-43%
-50%
-48%
-46%
-26%
-43%
-39%
3%
-27%
-32%
-24%
-13%
-9%
0%
-21%
-26%
0%
-9%
-8%
-2%
-25%
-32%
-18%
-13%
-9%
-12%
-30%
-40%
27%
-16%
-7%
-3%
10%
-48%
0%
-32%
-20%
-19%
-36%
-16%
-19%
2%
-20%
-1%
-58%
-40%
0%
-21%
-2%
0
221
14
247
67
1110
2
1128
49
32
542
2523
54
927
1523
454
182
795
0
1190
430
0
8
14
136
16
207
0
564
0
0
0
533
8
783
45
44
4
0
0
737
341
Non-EU
-68%
-43%
-24%
-20%
11490
3440
Total
-ZZ%-55%
-2696
-42%
69260
12648
In 1997 the Council of EG
Environment Ministers formally
endorsed the Eumoean Commis
slon's methods and 'models In the
sprtng of 1998 the Etrropean
Parliament echoed this endorsement.
In fact, the only "models and methods" used by the commission were
RAINS and ir? associated methodology. RAINS was the only tool available for comprehensive integrated
assessments of air pollution in
Europe, or in Soinheast Asia. As of
mid-1998, that remains the case.
The "integrated" in "integrated
assessment model" refers to integration of scientific information regarding a chain of pollution; for RAINS.
this means economic activity and
emissions of pollutanw. their transport in the atmosphere and deposition, and their impact on the environment. Policy makers from across
Europe are now using RAINS, not
jusr to integrate science, hut to
coordinate and integrate negotiations and, hy extension, national
policies.
Bridging Political Gaps
The European Commission is now
proposing a comprehensive series
of directives on air quality and emissions control. In keeping with
European Union policy, treaonent of
purely local pollutants will he left
largely at the discretion of each
nation. But for four key pollutants
that cross national boundaries-suifur, ammonia, nitrogen oxides. and
volatile organic compounds--rhe
directives are expected to propa%
limits on emissions For each of the
15 member states of the EU. If the
Council of Ministers and the
European Parlianlent approve the
proposed directives, thaw limits will
become legally binding. The commission relied heavily on RAINS to
determine these emission ceilings.
The same four pollutants alv also
the suhlea of a parallel negotlatlon
in Geneva under the UN-ECE
Convention
on
Long-range
Transboundary Air Polluti~n Thu IS
no coincidence.
RAINS is the element common to
hoth negotiations. Without a shared
scientific ba.w.. nevotiations could
not proceed in parallel. RAINS has
been the key to ensuring that directives negotiated in Brussels will
complement, and not contradict.
protocols negotiated in Geneva.
This is essential, as all I5 EU members have also signed the 35-country
UN-ECE convention.
-
Toward Comprehensive Alr
Pollution Control
During renegotiation of the sulfur
protocol in the early 1990s. negotiators learned a great deal about the
complexity of air pollution chains
and the power of integrated assessment tools to help them find more
effective, less costly solutions. The
inefficiency of single-pollutant
agreements became obvious when
they began to consider the next
agreement up for renegotiation, the
Nitrogen Oxides Protocol.
The paths of NO, through the environment, and its impact, are much
more complex than tho.% of sulfur.
In the presence of sunlight, NOx
combines with VOCs and c a h n
monoxide to form ozone-hence
the need to negotiate controls of
NO, and VOCs simultaneously (see
page 12).
Like sulfur dioxide, NO, is also an
imponant source of environmental
acidification (responsible for about
20 percent in Europe, compared to
60 percent for sulfur and 20 percent
for ammonia). But unlike sulfur,
nitrogen is also a basic plant nutrient. It can he taken up by plants,
ofien to excess, creating- the probIem of over-fmilization, or eutrophication. Nitroeen
from ammonia
"
(NHj) can have the same impact.
This complex interaction-sulfur
acidibing, thereby affecting plants;
nitrogen hoth acidifying and fmilizing; plants taking some or all of the
nitrogen deposited, thus reducing its
impact on soil acidity-makes
it
impossible to calculate a "simple"
critical imd value for an ecosystem.
In reality, there can he n o one fived
level. The ton1 amount of acid
deposition is imponant; but equally
important (depending on the
ecosystem) can he the ratio of sulfur
to nitrogen. Current versions of
RAINS take this into account by considering not just one number for
total acid deposition, but pairs of
numbers, with one value for sulfur
deposition and one for nitmgen.
Different combinations of sulfur and
nitrogen can have the same net
effect on an ecosystem. RAINS calculates the usiral sources of the pollutants (some of which may originate hundreds of kilometers away)
and then determines the cheapest
possible combinations of cuts in
emissions. In other words, the
model shows how we can take
advantage of the complexiry of pollution to save money.
Clearly, a comprehensive approach
to acidification and eutrophication
means that ammonia, the other key
source of airborne nitrogen, must be
included in the negotiations. Hence
the simultaneous neeotiation.
in h(xh
.>
Bmssels and Geneva, of mrasures to
control the four pollutants 6 0 2 ,
NH3, NO,, and VOC9 resyx>nsihle
for three major envimnrnental pmblems: acidification, eutrophication.
and ozone formation.
Exoloitinn Environmental
This multi-pollutant, nidti-effect
approach offers clear environnicntal
and financial advantages. If it is
complex, it is because nature and
society are complex. But for ncgotiators, this co~nplexityraises a host
of pmhlems.
In traditional single-pollutant or single-effect talks, negotiators had the
luxury of one clear goal. They could
always fall back on a one-dimensional question and a simple measure of progress. Now they are
faced with a atamering number and
variety of cross-linkages. Almost
everything becomes a trade-off with
something else.
Many mde-offs can be framed as
scientific or technical questions, as
in the balancing of emissions
between sulfur and nitrogen. In
such cases, RAINS can help. But in
other cases, the mde-offs are monl
and social, and hence political.
Which is more important, protecting
forests from acid rain or limiting
human exposure to harmful ozone?
Should we put all our effon into
helping the worrjt-affected areas, or
should we try to spread benefits
evenly? How do we balance the
interests of agriculture versus traospon versus electricity production?
When European negotiators chose
to put RAINS at the center of their
nrgutiations, they opened the door
to such complexity. However, integrated assessment also helps them
to separate scientific questions from
purely political ones. By combining
and linking the relevant scientific
and technical information in one
package, this approach minimizes
the chances that negotiators will
hog down in scientific minutiae. It
helps them to set over-arching goals
for environmental protection, then
focus on the search for practical,
fair solutions. In a sense, RAINS
contains and hounds the science,
and leaves the politics to the politicians. The results should benefit
everybody.
Modeling
Ozone
Wlim fewer emissions can lead ICI
more pollution, policy makem have
little chancc offinding intuitive solutions, When one further considers
o
that NOx is a fatlor in t ~ otlier
environment:~l prohlems, :tciil rain
and eutrnphic;t~ion,the complexity
hemmes overwhel~iiing. lntegrat~vl
;Issessmmr nx,ls suc11 as RAINS c l n
track all tlie possil~lecornhinations
and trade-offs, weigh tlle~naccoriing to the user's criteria. ;tnd point
to a reasonahly halancecl, cost-effective solution.
.tc.k ~ I.O U ~ C I ct,ncrntration% of
ozone in Europe are at le:lst twice as
li&h as tliey were a century ago.
Excessive ozone in tlie lower atnios
pliere (tropospheric ozone, as
<)pposed to str.ltospherir, or highaltitude. z o n e dalnages crops.
weakcns trees. and harms human
hellth. especially in people weakened 1,y l)n)ncliitis, heart discasr,
cmphysem:~.or ;tsthma.
Until recently the fen, omne mrxlels
in existence were simply rcx) hi8 for
an integrz~tedassessment tool like
RAINS. The model devt.lope<l at the
Norwegian Meteorologic;ll Institute
in Oslo was typical: to c;llculate one
scenario it would nln 2111 night on
the fzstrst computer in Europe (;I
Cr:~y YMP)-hardly
practical fc>r a
SLII,~IO~
o ~i RUNS.
I
For ye:irs many scientists said that it
was imp(~ssihlcto include ozone in
a RAINS-style integrated ..~'.\esslnml
.-.model. The chemistry of ozone formation was simply tno complex.
Only a large anddetailed resc:1rc11
model requiring mlssive computing
power coulcl simul;~teit accurately.
In 19% researchers at IMA. together with colleagues in Oslo and
Berlin. Ilegan work on a solution.
Fint, mathematicians at the GMD
(Gesdlsclrafr fiir Mathnnatik und
Uatenverarlleitung) research center
in Berlin adapted the Yonvegian
model for plr&lel computing. This
reduced the time needed for scenario
calculation to ahout 15 minutes.
Between 1994 and 1997, IIASA scientists, with tlie help [IF collc;~gues
in Nomay and Ct.rm;~riy,succeedeel
in hringing ozone into the RAINS
framework. The nod el has pk~yed1
key role in effons to develop new
"second-generation" strategies to
ct~ntrolair pollution in Europe (see
.-.
pegti lo).
The IlASA researchers designed a
sct of 2000 scmarios. which
amountal to a list of possible conrhinations of ozone-fonning chemiC.I .h ~.1ne1
. . conditions. Then the scrn;trios were calculated in Now;~v
using llle pardllel computing lools to
create a large set of statistical data.
IIASA then analyzed this dara smtis-
The \tr)ry hehind the alorlel's development is interesting in itself. It also
illustrates some imponanr artrihutes
of integrated assessment modeling,
and of systems analysis gmmlly.
Tmposplieric ozone is a .secondary
]x)llut;~nl. I t f o m ~ s when nitrogen
oxide\. \,olatile org~niccompounds.
and c x h n monnxide m h in the prt.5rnce of sunlieht.
.. N i m.e n oxidc and
cadmn ~nonoxiclecome mainly from
huminp, fos~ilfi~els;the volatile owdnics Lome from solvers, paint?, waporaring fuels and txhcr cliemio~ls.
An integrated assessment of ozonr
pollution must take account of the
entire chain of pollution, from the
niiission of each cliemical prcvursor
to its final impact on human he;tlth
to devise measures to limit ozc~ne.
In areas that typially have comp~r.lhly low nmogen oxide conccntr.1tkms. such :IS Scandinavia and some
remote Meditrr~neanarras, the easiest w%y to reduce ozone i\ to rtttluce
NO, even funher. Bul in northwestern Europe and other areas where
concentrations are generally high,
reducing NO, levels could actually
i ~ ? c r ~ u < , o z opollution.
ne
4
tically and found a single representative equation: Given essentially
the same input data. this one-equarion model produces estimates of
ozone formation within 1 or 2 pcrcent of estimates made l ~ yits giant
"grandfather" in Noway. And it
does so in seconds, on a person:tl
computer.
This projecr illustrates the capacity
of the RAINS team ta foster international scientific coopcretian (integrated assesnlmt lo~dingto intrgrdted research). IJ.su:llly, hcnefits
tlow hot11 ways. Researchers in Oslo
now regularly usc the parallel cumputing tools drvcloperi in Berlin.
In some w;lys, however. Illis project
was highly unus~ral.Thr drvrlopers
of RAINS, and systems modelers
generally, prefer to make use of
existing tools and information rather
than develop them from scratch.
I n d c ~ d .RAINS and models like it
:Ire sometimes criticized for not
1,re:tking new scientific ground. This
criticism misses the point.
Tile wlue of systems science is in
tile reintegration of specialized
knowledge. The real work1 is a
sramiess web. Speciulist.oand the
grcat majority of researchers are narrowly. specialized-hreak
it into
.
small chunks for detailed study.
Important connections are ohm
ignored. Systems science is ahout
reintegraling pieces to reveal important l?atterns. The skill is in deciding
what pieces arc neederl, and ;tr what
level of comnlexitv.
, to huild a
model that accurately reflects (part
of) the real world.
60%
$
5
8
$
40%
30%
20%
1
Percent NO, Reduction
WpIu~Ily
Low NO, Concentration5
-
Percent NOx Reduction
~plplcalWHigh NO. Concenwmlons
The "Ozone Hi//"
changes in ozone concentration in areas of
high and low NOx.
The illustration on the left shows that, where NO, concentrations are typically
low to begin with, reductions of VOCs have little impact on ozone fmation,
but further reductions in NOx have a significant effect. The illustration on the
right shows how, where NOx concentrations are generally high, reductions of
NOx or VOCs (or both) can actually lead to increased ozone concentrations.
Modeling Air
Pollution
in Southeast
Asia
Solahast. Askt is on the verge 61 an
addificatirn pnzhl,cnz as widr$prad
ancl seve~v as anythins seen in
North Anlerica or Eurt~pe.
Speeraculsr economic e w w h has
led to sharp incrcasvs in ironsumptim CIScnc@y and ctinscqucnrly to
shibrp increa.iec in emissions df sillfur dioxictc, thc mdin cause ofmcd
rail>. Energy eons,uinprirp has hecn
cloiihling rvrry 12 ye;im. Li,c;~lpolItirimi prcrhkm?; are alrr~idyw e r e :
12 cd the 15 most poilt~ltaedc-ities in
tile worW (thoxp with the hi&wt
Icvelr; of fine airhornc prmiclrs) are
in .Ast:i. If nothins is done, widcs p r e d evirrinmental and k l t h
prchlems ace Inevitiihl?.
111 1992 the World Rank agreed to
hind dcvclolrinent o>t a vat$:&nt vf
RAINS for Sqiitheiia Aaki I N K S E u r p e took rlghr ye'irs to dr+rlop
rhr 1i1t.a war to preparc a co~npxru1>12 rtx~lfor A?I;$ hcfkse the pwl>lent
p s out of ln~ncl,~ i n dhi h,iw n a v ~ J 'ihlti when the polir~c.il it111
a p p a r c d to ne#<jnate :+#reemen(\
rrrl .~irpollution
Tlic project hrotight %ether a
<IVLL?I t t . ~ ~ t r cte.amb
h
from Acid.
Europe. .md the I'SA IlASA pliryed a
irntr,il rcdc, with rr\ponr~hil~ty
for
clmeltipfng the h ~ r i cnmdrri, for integc,i~inpmatenal from other teami.
;~ntl fin:~lly fix a95vssing ~ , s s i h l r
trmtesies ttl cOntrc31 acidific1tio)n.
Rather th~ndc5ign J vanant speclfi
i.illy tor k\h, IlASA took the uppartttnlty to r%detigr the owdel srrticat%-cn ~ I I A I 11 tdn tX gmemi~zeclto
ally world region The E u l r ~ p ~ d n
rnd 4alan veihton.; :are e%senftally
the 5,une ;n<&lelhtith dillfirent i~tput
cbtd Trr)lh 01 mcdmck develo~w~l
FIX one resign, 3uch a1.5 L\tlle tovl
de\igne<i to model ozone tonndrron
m Europe, cotlld polentially he wed
fur othei re#un%
IlASA completed the trrst verrlrm of
MMS-Aka in 1544 Prelttnindry cnlcubtiom curng 19YO chta ~ndicatrd
rhnt a c ~ d&pei~uon\ wry@already
hi,gh mouah ro cause long-tmn
damage in ~ n i ~ c l iuf Chthma.
lndochlna. anti Tnpiln Future prw
jeccions were downr~gl~t
aslrwg
F a t sume aieds in Chtna they
s l ~ w dlcvck of auld depoaitinn
three tline.. hidirr t11an the worst
ever recorded rn the tnIamou>Blark
Tltangle aF Cemral Europe
Tile World Bmk a tr.iing RAIhkkm
to a\\e% the mvirumlenlal lnip,1<T>
ol p r u p i l s lor neQ paww plants
Thr Asnin Drvrlopmnt Bad$ w&s
c<~zlccrned cnwugb to o ~ k r400
C<:OJIILYL
cd RAINS .~otRwrr--;tn ex@..
o & a q numhm for a nla&I ol t h ~
%on-to drstrfbuw td~rou@ho~it
d~e
rep,iun Thb w d r diiqemm8tlon ~ u g that WIN: <,QLII~l x c u n ~ rn
Vimtnent tool Fur integn~tril;iur+i
nletu of air pollwcorm m 3o~ithed$t
b . , ni it has heen in Eiaupr 8111
tliflh2ht.r developmcnr t. n c c s d r y
W 4 r e 11 can flll thzt role pioperly
The tniml veruem tleal only cvlih5iilhu c l ~ w d e(the main hource o f cad
r ~ i n l Truly iomprehensive pohty
a?semnenr w d d rryu~rr,a1 a mtmmum. the r~ddrttonof tools and dud
tor nitmaen oxide\, and, n1m importantly, for fine a ~ r t n m e[rdrt~cltis
Wnrh 1% iindem-:~y ro venfy and
Improve vnrrous model elrmmrs
Mrsnwh~l.?, re.;ranheri at IL4SA
nnd in Asn ale usmg UAINS-~~SI~
a, analyzr the p o t m t ~ a lTor renew%lieenergy to s o l w some of Asw s
pollurlan pmhlrms *MI te stbidy
Idrge-sc!&lrpollutton pc0Jilemu rn
Eas? Asla
Sulfur dioxide
Wdhasl
Asia
emissions are
expected to drop
steadily in Europe
and North America
and climb rapidly
in Asia.
Excess Sulfur
Deposition
above Critical
Loads in 2020
-*
- 1 -100
I under the
-
->*a
No Control
-a%
--am
-law
-a-
Scenario.
(
.
Swrw Amann and
Cofala H@QSI.
I
I
The Next
Steps:
Fine Airborne
Particles
The new generation of European air
pollution agreements expected in
1W should greatly reduce (though
not solve) problems of acid rain and
ozone pollution. But these agreements
overlook another pollution pmhlem:
the damage to human health caused
by fme a i h m e panicles.
Airborne panimlates come mostly
from the exhaust of cars, mucks, and
power plants. M e d secondary particles are formed fmm pollutant gases,
including s~llhlrdioxide and nivogen
oxides. lhey ~ L L Wrnpiratory and cardiovascular d i m % and have brrn
linked to i n m a d late5 of mortality.
W A has bepln to a.%cesc systemarially what is known, and not known.
about the mtire chain of paniculates
pollution, from emissions to impact on
hwlth. The goal is to develop a model
of paniculates pollution and incorponte it into RAINS, linking it to tools for
Ihe sn~dyof sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
oxides, ammonia, and volatile organic
co~npoundq. Such a model would
on the W&
$b
make it p i b l e to prioritize ahatement measures for different envimnmental problems, and to identify those
mmsures that convibute to the a ~ l u tion of several problems.
But much must happen before a
malule on paniculates
becomes reality. At many stages in the
chain, the xientific picture is unclear.
RAINS
While researchers agree that airborne paniculates can cause health
problems, especially in high concentrations, considerable debate
remains about the relative dangers
of different sorts of panicles (it
appears that size matters, as well as
chemical composition), about the
risks from long-term exposure to
low levels of particulates, and about
the dangers posed by simultaneous
exposure to paniculates plus other
airborne pollutants. The range of
uncenainties must be defined.
Knowing what sons of particles
cause problems, and at what concentrations, would be a big step.
Researchers will pay particular
attention to studies that link health
problem9 to moniroring data on particulates. These data should help
llASA to design tools to simulate the
dispersion (and concentration) of
panicles in the atmosphere.
Transparency ca
making RAINS
widely availabt
RNNS is coded
ware, at p m n l
and more
Euromn
In contrast to practices with m y
other pollutant5, neither Europe nor
k.ia routinely collects high quality
data on airborne paniculates. Neither
is there much quantitative information about the size and chemical
characteristics of particles emitted by
different sources, or about the effects
of c i m n t pollution control technologies on emissions: for instance, a
scrubber put in a powerplant to
remove sulfur might trap large panicles, but not small ones.
A key goal for IIAS.4 is to determine
wllilt information must be collected
(such as particle sizes and chemical
properties) and at what geographial
scale to create an inventor/ of emissions suitable for RAINS modeling.
More generally, sommne 5hould
conduct a systetnatlc survey to
reveal knom~ledge that can b e
used-and
gaps that must b r
filled-before
pan~cuhte pollution
can be modeled proprrly, and ultlmarely controlled
Local sources are impondnt, especially vehicles in cities.But, as noted
www.iiasa.ac.at/Resea~1WAp.)
l b amwrance and conswuentlv
a61e appiication of the 'RAINS
es. To achieve
ahwe, some panicles are formed
from sulfur dioxide and nitrogen
oxide gases, which can be "import4''by winds. RAINS already models
long-range transport of these two
gases throughout Europe, as well as
the chemical interactions between
some airborne panicles and ozone.
m@sl in the present negotiation
,prOcesses requires the model
dEv@lopers to respond quickly to
Su@e&tions made, for example,
by negoWcing panies. Using the
Wdd Wide Web makes it possiB~B'
!Q. keep up-to-date technical
'@&I dqsaipti~nsand the latest
darabases accessible to all negotiparties. IUSA mainla~nsa
qmid Web site with deta~led
Wal information on models,
d$tabases and scenario results
(www.iiasa.ac.ao'-rains)
In preparing for the various policy meetings, the European
Cwrmission now routinelv uses
electronic communication to
quickly communicate interim
repons compiled by IIASA to all
Member States. The Commission
encourages national e x p n s to
download the related documents
d w n l y from IIASA's Web site.
MEETINGS, AWARDS AN0 hPPOF'WT#Et4%$, l't'Vkl%lEB0PllA:M,'W:E:@:W&!RG:H
6PI'AMTe. .'
, ,
,
,
,
.
..
IIASA
RESEARCHERS
SWEDEN
In what is becoming a tradition,
IlASA researchers have traveled
through Sweden to spread the
news about the lnstitute and its
research to local scientists and
policy makers. Population, energy
and land use were the focus of this
year's events organized by IIASA's
Swedish National Member
Organization, the Swedish Council
for Planning and Coordination of
Research (FRN). FRN strives to
publicize IIASA's research and
facilitate contacts to each of
Sweden's many universities.
At the first went in Stockholm on
28 April. Population project leader
Wolfgang Lutz spoke to a large
group of scientists, planners and
decisionmakers. Swedish IlASA
alumni, and other guests about
"New Methods for Population
Projections - Experiences from
IIASA's Population Project:' Lively
discussion followed additional
Swedish presentations on Why
are IIASA's forecasts better than
those of the UN?: "Could simulation methods reveal the importance of economy, demography
and policy regimes?: and "Is a
sustainable [social security] system possible?"
The second FRN-organizedevent,
in late May, was held at VBxj6
University (in the south) and Lulea
University (in the far north).
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, leader of
IIASA's Environmentally
Compatible Energy Strategies project, and GOnther Fischer, leader
of the Modeling Land-Use and
Land-Cover Changes in Europe
and Northern Asia project, presented the latest project developments. IlASA Director Gordon
MacDonald joined the tour for a
seminar at its final stop at the
Royal Institute of Technology in
Stockholm.
,.
INSIDE''IIASA
IIASA
COOPERATION
WITH
EUROPEAN
OBSERVATORY
European
Observatorp
National Family olrcles
The European ObseNatory on
National Family Policies was
established by the European
Commission in 1989. In its first
eight years, the ObseNatory was
coordinated by institutes in France,
Belgium and the UK. In the spring
of 1998, the European
Commission (DG V) awarded a
contract for the coordination of the
Observatory to the Austrian
Institute for Family Studies (OIF) in
Vienna, a collaborating institution
of IIASA's Population project.
The European Commission
requires the Observatory to disseminate information on family
studies in Europe via the World
Wide Web (WWW). To that end,
the 6 l F has formalized a six-year
partnership with IlASA to develop
and maintain a WWW site for the
ObseNatOry and simuitaneously to
provide Web access to new databases containing information specific to family studies issues in
Europe.
IlASA is contributing its experience
and competence as an international research institution producing
policy-relevant research results
and disseminating these through
the Internet and the WWW.The
new Web site will be operational by
this October.
INTERNATIONAL
COLLABORATION
POPULATION
STUDIES
The International Union for the
Scientific Study of Population
(IUSSP) and IlASA are developing
new ties to better promote scientific studies of demography and population-related issues. Wolfgang
Lutz, leader of IIASA's Population
project, was elected general secretary of the IUSSP this spring. Now,
NASA is helping the Belgiumbased IUSSP develop a worldclass Web site to improve access
to the organization's useful work.
Originally founded in 1928 and
reconstituted in 1947, the IUSSP is
the leading international prolessional association for individuals
interested in population studies.
The IUSSP network includes
almost 2000 members world-wide.
one third of whom are from developing countries. The IUSSP's main
goal is to "foster relations between
persons engaged in the study of
demography in ail countries of the
world, and stimulate interest in
demographic matters among governments, national and international organizations, scientific bodies
and the general public:'
[AWARDS AND
Sten Nilsson has been appointed
IIASA's counselor to the director. In
addition to his duties as leader of
the Sustainable Boreal Forest
Resources project, Nilsson will
assist Director Gordon MacDonald
in maintaining close working relations with IIASA's National
Member Organizations and in
establishing and developing contacts with potential new member
countries.
IlASA Council member Risto
Seppiila of the Finnish Committee
for IlASA was named an IlASA
honorary scholar by the Council at
its June 1998 meeting. Seppala
retired from the Council in June
1998, having served since 1990.
His activities with the Council
included memberships on the
Executive, Finance, Membership,
and Program Committees. Seppaia
is a professor at the Finnish Forest
Research Institute in Helsinki.
The International Society on
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
(MCDM) awarded the MCDM Gold
Medal to Howard Raiffa and
Ralph Keeney for their outstanding achievements in the field of
MCDM. The awards were presented at the June banquet of the
Society's international conference.
which was held in Charlottesville.
Virginia, USA. Raiffa was the first
director of IIASA, and Keeney
worked at IlASA in the 1970s. The
president of the Society is Pekka
Korhonen and the chairman of the
awards committee is Wojtek
Michalowski, both of the NASA
Decision Analysis and Support
project.
The International Association for
Hydrogen Energy presented its
Jules Verne Award to Cesare
Marchetti at the World Hydrogen
Energy Conference in Argentina in
June. The award recognizes his
extensive and diverse work on the
solar hydrogen energy system.
Marchetti first came to NASA in
1974 to contribute to research
undertaken by the Energy
Systems Program. Since then he
has been involved in the work of
various research groups at the
Institute and is now an lnstitute
scholar.
Long-time IlASA collaborator Tokio
Kanoh, managing director of the
Tokyo Electric Power Company,
has been elected to the Upper
House of the Japanese Diet. Mr.
Kanoh has worked with IIASA's
Environmentally Compatible
Energy Strategies project, and was
a member of IIASA's steering wmmittee on global economic and
technological transition from 1993
to 1996. In January 1998 he was
named an "IIASA Distinguished
Scholar" for his outstanding contributions to the lnstliute.
18
Joint Meeting of the
lnternational Energy
Workshop and the Energy
Modeling Forum
(Stanford University,
Stanford, CA, USA)
June 17-19, 1998
Contact: Leo Schrattenholzer
E-mail: leo@iiasa.ac.at
Fusion and Public
Opinion
July 12-14. 1998
Contact: Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
E-mail: bayer@iiasa.ac.at
Future Life Expectancy
and Education in the
Southern Africa Region
and an Assessment of its
Human Resource
Potential
July 20-21, 1998
Contact: Wolfgang Lutz
E-mail: 1utzBiiasa.ac.at
Modeling PopulationDevelopmentEnvironment Interactions
in Namibia and Botswana
July 22-24, 1998
Contact: Wolfgang Lutz
E-mail: lutz@iiasa.ac.at
Paul Freeman has joined the
Risk, Modeling and Policy project
as senior research scholar. Before
coming to IIASA, Freeman was
chief executive officer at ERIC
Companies in Englewood.
Colorado, USA.
Global Change and
Catastrophic Risk
Management
May 11, 1998
Contact: Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
E-mail: bayer@iiasa.ac.at
Decision Methods and
Systems for Development
June 3-6, 1998
Contact: Barbara Hauser
E-mail: hauser@iiasa.ac.at
Vivien Schimmel-Casti passed
away in April 1998. She worked in
the IlASA Directorate from 1973 to
1987. She was instrumental in
establishing IIASA's Office of
Sponsored Research and in formulating policies and guidelines for
external funding.
Allan H. Murphy, a researcher
with IIASA's Environment project
from 1974 to 1975, died in August
1997 after a long illness. Murphy
devoted his professional life to verification and evaluation of weather
forecasts, probability weather forecasting, and decision theory.
M E E T I N G S , AWARDS A N D A P P O I N T M E N T S , I N M E M O R I A M , R E S E A R C H G R A N T S
RESEARCH GRANTS
Decision Analysis and Suppon
International develop men^
Ect~nomicTransition
The \Vurltl bank
Two Conferences:
High-Level Conference on I'ension
Reform, and Joint Conference on
Central and Eastern European
Pension Issues
Educ;~tionin Africa: An As.sesslnent
of the African Human
Resource Potential
Systems Analysis of
Tedmological and Economic
The Fujitsu Research Institute
Cmnpantivr Awalysis and Evaluatio
of the Historial Perspective of
PERSPECTIVES
al climate. Consumers want higher
levels of more efficient, clraner, and
less obtn~siveenergy semices. How
much of those needs will be met by
fossil furls, how mucli by altrrnative
fuels. and how much by efficiency
increases and expanded eneqy conservation i s a crucial question and
the focus of this book.
Edited hy Nebojia NakiCmovic',
Arni~lfGriibler, and Alan McDonald
Published by
Cambridge University Press
ISBN 0-521-64569-7
PaperbacUS27.95
Global energy needs are expanding
with economic development around
the world and population g r o a ~ h .
There is now strong evidence that
growing energy use risks damaging
the environment and changing @ o h
IIASA and the World Energy Council
( W C ) present six alternative longterm energy futures. They cover s
wide range-from
a tremendous
expansion of L'~dl production a)
\tlict limits, from a phasrou! of
nuclear mergy to a substantial
increase, from carhon emissions i n
2100 that are only one-thircl of
today's levels to incwdses by more
than a factor of three. All allow significant economic growh a.ithotl1
exhausting energy rexlurccs, but 111
require sohstantial. yet different,
early investments.
These early
investments will determine which
fuels, technologies. efficiency gains,
conservation patterns, and pollution
levels are mast likely to characterize
the 2lst cmtiuy.
Global Enetyg PenpecIitesaddresses
issues that are of central mncern to
a very wide audience, sin<? the pro-
^
.
,
.
.
.
r
i
*
.
q
I I A S A
~
N a t i o n a l
Austria
The Austrian Academy of Sciences
Bulgaria'
The Ministry of Environment and
Waters
Finland
The Flnnnish Committee lor liASA
Germany"
The AssociaBon lor the
Advancement of IlASA
Hungary
The Hunoarian Committee for
Applied Systems Analysis
Japan
The Japan Committee for IlASA
vision of s~dequateenergy .seviccs is a
prerequisite for human devrlopmmt.
The primary audience includes
mearchers, rducarors p o l i q makers
in private and puhlic m n - s and other
workers in the eneqg, r&ology,
economics, and environmental arras,
but the book will appeal to anyone
interested in the future of energy sys
terns and the envirorunent.
The book can be ordered on-line
from the Camhriclge University Press
Weh site at www.cup.cam.ac.uk
or by contacting:
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building
Shafteskn~ryRoad
Cambridge CB2 2RLl
United Kingdom
Tel.: t44 (0)1223 312393
Fax: +44 (0')1223 315052
E-mail:
laformation@cup.cam.ac.uk
or
Cambridge Eniversiq Press No&
American Branch
40 Wes 20th Street
New York, NY 10022-4211
USA
Tel.: +1 212 924 3900
Fax: +1 212 691 3239
E-mail: Informadon@cup.org
-
M e m b e r
.-I__
O r g a n i z a t i o n s
Kazakstan'
The Ministry of Science The Academy of Sciences
Sweden
The Swedish Council for Planning
and Coordination of Research
FRN)
Netherlands
The Netherlands Organization for
Scientific Research (NWO)
Norway
The Research Council ol Noway
Poland
The Polish Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
The Russian Academv of Sciences
Slovak Republic*
The Executive Slovak National
Committee for IlASA
Ukralne'
The Ukrainian Academy of
Sciences
United States of America
The American Academy of Arts
and Sciences
..
A~sociateMember
Afiliate