IIASA Update by the Director: Science

Cumulative effects and interactions
in human-environmental systems
An interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral
perspective
Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat
IIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer
Professor Earth System Science
Wageningen, Netherlands
Oost
Een parachutisctische durfal
dook vlak bij het wad op een
veestal.
Hij zei: Ik weet best:
het vliegveld is west,
Ik snap niet waaroom ik op
Oost val.
Jan Heemskerk (2006)
53 Texelse Limericks
THE EARLY 1970s
Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian
Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA
24 MEMBER COUNTRIES (NMOs)
 International, independent,
interdisciplinary
 Research on major global
problems
 Solution oriented, integrated
systems analysis
24 MEMBER COUNTRIES
Representing:
71% of the world’s economy
US$54,797,000 million from World GDP of US$77,302,000 million
(including 8 of the world’s 10 largest economies)
63% of the world’s population
4,599.7 million people from World population of 7,247.9 million
Sources: GDP figures from IMF (2014); population figures from IIASA (2015)
IIASA TRULY INTERNATIONAL
Today’s
IIASA
• 1,445 visitors & collaborators in 2014
• Plus ~25% of IIASA alumni (3,505 people worldwide)
remain actively involved in IIASA research
• Plus ~600 partner institutions
• In sum, ~2500 researchers from some 65 countries
involved in IIASA’s research network (external faculty)
• And it is not just research networks: IIASA researchers
took part in 112 advisory boards and steering
committees in 2014
INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENTISTS
29% 30%
41%
Natural Scientists &
Engineers
Economists & other
Social Scientists
Mathematicians and
others
IIASA’s Systems Science Approach
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Integrated
Interdisciplinary
International
Independent
Solution-oriented
Long term
Trade offs
=
Systems
Analysis
EXAMPLES OF EARLY RESEARCH
1978
1981
1983
1986
1990
IIASA RESEARCH STRATEGY
Food
&
Water
IIASA HIGHLIGHTS
2011-2015
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/achievements/Highlights.html
Energy
&
Climate
Change
Poverty
&
Equity
NEW IIASA RESEARCH FRAMEWORK
Science, Policy, Society
Partnerships
Natural
Systems
Systems Approaches for Global
Transformations
Integrated
IIASA ResearchSolutions
Plan
2016
–
2020
for
Sustainability
Transformations
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/leadership/strategicplan/IIASATechnology &
Infrastructure
Systems
Research-Plan2015-2020.pdf
Human & Social
Systems
Integrated Systems
Analysis
Example of the Benefits of Systems Thinking:
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT
• Launched in 2012 at Rio +20 Summit
• Outcomes include defining the aspirational yet
feasible objectives for the UN SecretaryGeneral’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative:
1. Ensure universal access to modern
energy services by 2030
2. Double the global rate of improvements in
energy efficiency by 2030
3. Double the share of renewable energy in
the global energy mix by 2030
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
16
Global Primary Energy
Historical Evolution
1200
1000
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
800
Mikrochip
EJ
Kommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Nuklearenergie
600
Fernseher
400
200
Vakuumröhre
Ottomotor
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Dampf- Elektrischer
maschine Motor
Oil
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
Global Primary Energy
A Transformational Pathway
1200
1000
EJ
800
Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
600
400
200
Renewables
Nuclear
Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS
Gas
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Oil
Coal
0
1850
Biomass
1900
1950
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
2000
2050
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
1.2%
Added costs of ES and
PH are comparatively
low when CC is taken as
an entry point
Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Only Energy Security
Only Air Pollution and Health
Only Climate Change
All Three Objectives
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
Cumulative and Complex Adaptive Systems in
Marine and Coastal Environments
( examples/vignettes after & in collaboration with Dr.Ulf Dieckmann,
Director IIASA Evolution and Ecology (EEP) Programme
Rapid adaptation
Interdependent agents
Emergent phenomena
Tipping points
Self-organized criticality
Social dilemmas
Stakeholder diversity
Rapid
Adaptation
Two Types of Adaptation
• Biological evolution
operates through genetic change (slower)
• Cultural evolution
operates through social learning (faster)
Two Common Misperceptions
• Biological evolution is always slow
On the contrary, rapid contemporary evolution is
widespread, in particular in response to
anthropogenic environmental change
• Biological evolution is always optimizing
On the contrary, selection operates at the individual
level, implying that population-level features will rarely
get optimized by evolution
Example: Modern Fisheries
• Evolutionary responses of stocks to modern
fishing pressures are inevitable
• Significant evolution can occur within just a
few generations
• Evolutionary changes are not necessarily
beneficial
• Evolutionary changes will often be difficult to
reverse
Which Traits Are at Risk?
• Age and size at maturation
 Reproducing late is impossible
• Reproductive effort
 Saving for future seasons is futile
• Growth rate
 Staying below mesh size prolongs life
• Morphology and behavior
 Avoiding fishing gear is advantageous
Northeast Arctic Cod: Stock
Structure
Feeding grounds
Barents Sea,
mature & juvenile fish
Spawning grounds
Norwegian coast,
only mature fish
© Google Earth
With a catch of 400,000 tonnes per year, Northeast Arctic cod is
one of the most important European fish stocks
Northeast Arctic Cod: Evolutionary Change
Length at 50% maturation
probability at age 7 (cm)
100
Until about 1970
90
80
Today
70
1930
1970
2005
This shift in maturation schedule contributes to a drop in
maturation age from 9-10 years to 6-7 years and reduces initial
egg production by about 50%
Fast Pace of Evolutionary Decline
Eco-genetic model of Northeast Arctic cod
10
8
Today
Age at maturation (years)
12
6
4
2
0
ca. 40 years
Historical
fishing
0
Current
fishing
Time (years)
100
Slow Pace of Evolutionary Recovery
Eco-genetic model of Northeast Arctic cod
10
8
6
Today
Age at maturation (years)
12
4
2
0
ca. 250 years
Current
fishing
Historical
fishing
0
Time (years)
100
Interdependent
Agents
A few rich cooperators suffice to enable
cooperation under adverse conditions
With wealth inequality
Without wealth inequality
Blue: cooperators, red: defectors, bright: rich sites, dark: poor sites
Social planners can maximize cooperation by
managing wealth inequality
Contrast between rich and poor sites
High temptation to defect
Low temptation to defect
Planners can move along
iso-wealth curves to
maximize cooperation
Making just 10% of sites
3 times richer greatly
improves cooperation
0% Fraction of rich sites
100%
For low
temptation to
defect, as in
societies with
strong
institutional or
social control, the
situation
reverses: full
equity now
maximizes
cooperation
0% Fraction of rich sites
100%
Social
Dilemmas
Common Goods and Social Dilemmas
Civil security
Global climate
Beneficial
demography
Clean air
Prudent
urbanization
Social welfare
Internet
Fish and game
Communal land
Garrett Hardin
Open-access resources that are
utilized unrestrictedly tend to
suffer from overexploitation and
will often collapse through a
‘tragedy of the commons’, in
which the selfish actions of
individuals jeopardize a common
good
Framing the Social Dilemma
• Conventional (‘Tragedy of the Commons’)
– Foster cooperation despite selfish behavior
– Emergence of social institutions
– Insights from game theory
• Broadened framing
– Account for plural rationalities
– Emergence of socially inclusive institutions
– Insights from cultural theory
Inclusive Governance
• Recognizes stakeholder views, and therefore
accounts for their heterogeneity in terms of age,
sex, income, race, interests…
• According to cultural theory, it is critical to also
account for worldviews:
–
–
–
–
Individualism (choice, markets)
Egalitarianism (moral stance, communal)
Hierarchism (control, regulation)
Fatalism (life is a lottery)
Stakeholder
Diversity
Approaches for Social Planners
When agents are heterogeneous, social planners can
• Analyze stakeholder impacts
• Optimize for one stakeholder or objective
• Optimize across stakeholders or objectives
• Promote compromise across stakeholders
Integrated Bioeconomic Model
Ca. 460,000 tonnes
Northeast Arctic cod
Derived Harvest Control Rules
 Harvest-control rules are politically
negotiated without support from
quantitative modeling
 Our assessment is process-based,
couples an individual-based
biological model with an economic
model, and accounts for three
alternative objectives
 Current rule maximizes profit,
Yield-maximizing HCR
(Johannesburg World
Summit 2002)
Welfare-maximizing HCR
Current HCR
Profit-maximizing HCR
while alternative objectives lead to
more aggressive exploitation
Adult biomass (1000 tonnes)
Hilborn 2007: “Zone of New Consensus”
Benefits (utility)
Profit
Yield
Employment
Zone of traditional
fisheries
management
Zone of
new
consensus
Ecosystem
preservation
0
Fishing effort
Population crash
Integrated Assessment
1. Biological model
Northeast Arctic cod,
Barents Sea capelin
2. Socio-economic model
Fleet costs, revenues, and effort-employment
relationships estimated from profitability
surveys by the Norwegian Fisheries Directorate
3. Stakeholder model
Heterogenous preferences
Stakeholder Preferences
Yield
Employment
Industrial fishers
30%
Artisanal fishers
50%
10%
Employment-oriented community
20%
50%
Profit-oriented community
20%
Conservationists
10%
Profit
Preservation
70%
20%
10%
30%
30%
60%
20%
20%
50%
Mapping the Zone of Consensus
Stakeholder A
Stakeholder B
Area of joint satisfaction: Consensus most likely
Mapping the Zone of Consensus
Cod
15
150
70%
100
90%
50
10
Status quo
Status quo
5
Minimum size (cm)
20
Capelin
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
Harvest proportion (%)
60
80
100
A propos:
The Anthropocene
• For the first time in the Earth’s history are the major
processes dominated by a single species:
• Homo (not-so much) -sapiens ?
• The current era is therefore so unique that is has been
labeled the ‘Anthropocene’
• What are the consequences and can we manage
this?
The UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Washington Post
30 March 2005
VISION…..
If one does not know
to which port one is
sailing, no wind is
favorable
Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65)
Photo: David McGrath
The Renaissance vision
Principia
Sir Isaac Newton
The Renaissance vision
Principia
Sir Isaac Newton
The Anthropocene vision
Young
Wadden
Academy
here
????
Terrestris Rationis Principia
Vuurtorenwachter
Een vuurtorenwachter, die
zei:
“Mijn vak maakt me niet
altijd blij.
Want soms staat mijn licht
op het naaktstrand gericht,
maar dan flitst het er te snel
voorbij.”
Jan Heemskerk(2006)
53 Texelse Limericks
Thank you and welcome soon at
IIASA !!