November 12 2010

Transcription

November 12 2010

Fotografías:
Banco de Imagen Bureau
Róbinson Henao
Diseño y Diagramación
Karin Martínez Camacho
Fabián Rivero Camargo
Área de Diseño Universidad EAFIT
I.
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Medellín
Welcome
José Darío Uribe Escobar
Governor, Banco de la República
Juan Luis Mejía Arango
President, Universidad EAFIT
Alberto Uribe Correa
President, Universidad de Antioquia
Juan Sebastián Betancur Escobar
President Proantioquia
Centro de Pensamiento Social
We are very pleased to welcome you to the XV Annual Meeting of the Latin American
and Caribbean Economic Association to Medellín. The Banco de la República, Universidad EAFIT, Universidad de Antioquia, and Centro de Pensamiento de Proantioquia
are proud to organize the meeting this year.
The organization of LACEA 2010 has benefited from numerous people. Mauricio Cárdenas and Ricardo Hausmann, the past and current presidents of LACEA, were
very supportive at the moment of inviting us to organize the meeting in Medellín, the
first time the conference has taken place in an intermediate non capital city of the
region. Members of our Program Committee were generous with their support in the
selection of the articles and the organization of invited sessions.
We also thank the administrative staff of EAFIT, first led by María Alejandra
Palacio, and then by Alberto Naranjo; people of Grupo Logístico, led by Lina María
Granados, people at Banco de la República, led by Diana Mejía; and the students assistants, for taking care for all the details required to make your stay pleasant.
Finally, we want to thank to our sponsors for their generous support that
made possible this conference.
We are convinced that the material selected by our Program Committee is
of high academic quality and hope you agree. Along with this academic program, we
are offering you at EAFIT, a friendly environment to interact with your colleagues
from over the world. We are delighted to have you in Medellín and wish that you get
to know the city.
Let us invite you to begin enjoying LACEA 2010!
II.
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LACEA 2010 / Colombia
Parque Explora | Sala Abierta
Foreword
It is for me an honor and a pleasure to introduce to you this handbook. It presents the
program of the conference and all relevant information related to it: the Organizing
Committee, the Program Committee, the organizing institutions, the Latin American
and Caribbean Economic Association, previous LACEA conferences, this year
conference’s sponsors, and general information for participants.
First, I want to join the thanks offered to all those mentioned in the welcome
for their support for the conference, and also I want to thank the Presidents of
Universidad EAFIT, Universidad de Antioquia, Centro de Pensamiento Social de
Proantioquia, and Banco de la República, and Alejandro Gaviria, for their combined
efforts to promote this event.
Secondly, I want to provide a brief summary of the academic material you will
find in this program. We received nearly 600 submissions, out of which somewhat less
than 500 were finally reviewed and half of them were accepted. From those accepted,
nearly 20 percent excused their attendance for several reasons. Although the number
of submissions was not as overwhelming as the previous two conferences, that jointly
organized both LAMES and LACEA, we are confident that this year we have a very fine
selection of academic material.
Our Program Committee selected papers on a broad range of topics. Nearly 10
percent of the articles are related to Trade, 7 percent to Education, 6 percent each to
Program Evaluation and Labor Economics, and nearly 3 percent to each of Economic
Development, Exchange Rate, Poverty and Inequality, Fiscal policy, Financial
Institutions, Microeconomics, International Migration and Remittances, Pensions,
Business Cycles, Conflict and Development, and Econometrics. The remaining topics
account for about 39 percent of the articles.
Most accepted articles, nearly 43 percent, were submitted by people affiliated to
institutions based in North America, 38 percent in South America, 12 percent in Europe,
and 6 percent in Central America. 41 percent of accepted submitters were based in
The United States, 12 percent in Chile, 8 percent each in Colombia and Brazil, nearly 6
percent each in Argentina and United Kingdom, and 5 percent in Mexico. The remaining
accepted articles were submitted by people based in other 20 different countries.
Third, I want to mention what we want you to enjoy in your free time with your
colleagues and friends. We will have a welcome cocktail at the Museo de Antioquia, in
which you will have the chance to know the donations made by the Colombian artist
Fernando Botero, which include paintings donated since 1955, sculptures donated
since 1984, and the Botero Donation 2000, a collection of 112 works of art, including 64
of his paintings and 14 of his sculptures. On Friday we will offer a dinner and party at
Plaza Mayor, and on Saturday a closing cocktail at EAFIT.
I hope you have a great time at LACEA 2010!
Juan José Echavarría
Conference Chair
III. Contents
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Organizing Committee
6
Program Committee
7
Organizing Institutions
9
Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association
13
Sponsors
15
General Information
16
Conference Program – Thursday, November 11th
19
Conference Program – Friday, November 12th
29
Conference Program – Saturday, November 13th
43
Index
56
Notes
63
Program Structure
69
Map of Universidad EAFIT
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Av. San Juan | Estación del Ferrocarril
5
Plaza Mayor
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IV.
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Organizing Committee
Conference Chair
Universidad EAFIT
Banco de la República
Universidad de Antioquia
Juan José Echavarría Soto
Juan Luis Mejía Arango, President
Alberto J. Naranjo, Administrative Chair
Maria A. Palacio, Administrative Chair
Staff
Nathalia Franco Pérez
Juan Sebastián Cárdenas Salas
Carlos Fernando Arbeláez Ortiz
Luis Alejandro Cárdenas Franco
Catalina Gómez Toro
José Darío Uribe Escobar, Governor
Hernando Vargas Herrea, Deputy Technical Governor
Hugo López Castaño
Carlos Medina Durango
Staff
Diana Mejía Anzola
Catalina Gómez Irurita
Consuelo Páez Rodríguez
Melanie Triana Salazar
Sebastián Londoño Mora
Alberto Uribe Correa, President
Jorge Hugo Barrientos, Alexander Tobón, Co-Chairs
Juan Sebastián Betancur, President
Sergio Andrés Tobón Ospina
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Alejandro Gaviria Uribe
Logistic Operator
Lina María Granados E., Grupo Logistico
Nicolas Robledo S., Grupo Logistico
Juan José Echavarría, Conference Chair,
Patricia Cortés,
Banco de la República de Colombia
University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Alberto J. Naranjo, Program Co-Chair,
Flavio Cunha,
Universidad EAFIT
University of Pennsylvania
Alejandro Gaviria, Program Co-Chair,
José De Gregorio,
U. de los Andes and Centro de Pensamiento Social
Banco Central de Chile
Carlos Medina, Program Co-Chair,
Augusto de la Torre,
World Bank
Andrés Alvarez,
Rafael Di Tella,
Universidad Nacional
Harvard University
Mauricio Alviar,
Juan Dubra,
Universidad de Montevideo
Orazio Attanasio,
Juan Carlos Duque,
University College London
Universidad EAFIT
Alicia Bárcena,
Suzanne Duryea,
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
Inter-American Development Bank
Jorge Hugo Barrientos,
Federico Echenique,
California Institute of Technology
Raquel Bernal,
Sebastian Edwards,
Universidad de los Andes
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Francesco Bogliacino,
Marcela Eslava,
Universidad EAFIT
Marcelo Buchelli,
Raquel Fernández,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
New York University
Paula Bustos,
Francisco Ferreira,
Universitat Pompeu Fabra
World Bank
Luis Lopez Calva,
Erica M. Field,
United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Harvard
Mauricio Cárdenas,
Arturo Galindo,
Brookings Institution
Juan Camilo Cárdenas,
Francisco Gallego,
Universidad Católica de Chile
Juan Esteban Carranza,
Martin Grandes,
Universidad ICESI
Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
Luis Felipe Céspedes,
Rema Hanna,
Banco Central de Chile
Harvard University
V. Program Committee
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Ana María Ibáñez,
Guillermo Perry,
Fedesarrollo
Salomón Kalmanovitz,
Ricardo Reis,
Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Columbia University
Graciela Kaminsky,
Roberto Rigobon,
George Washington University
MIT
Maurice Kugler,
Jaime Saavedra,
World Bank
The World Bank
Ricardo Lagos,
Pablo Sanguinetti,
New York University
Corporación Andina de Fomento
Hugo López Castaño,
Ernesto Schargrodsky,
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Eduardo Lora,
Emmanuel Skoufias,
The World Bank
Rosa Liliana Matzkin,
Rodrigo Soares,
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Adriana Lleras-Muney,
Roberto Steiner,
Fedesarrollo
Grant Miller,
Gustavo Suárez,
Stanford University
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Ramón Moreno,
Alexander Tobón,
Bank for International Settlements
Andrés Neumeyer,
Alberto Torres,
Banco de Mexico
Hugo Ñopo,
José Darío Uribe,
José Antonio Ocampo,
Miguel Urquiola,
Columbia University
Columbia University
Mónica Ospina,
Sergio Urzua,
Universidad EAFIT
Northwestern University
Jesús Otero,
Martin Valdivia,
Universidad del Rosario
GRADE
Carmen Pages,
Hernando Vargas Herrera,
Ugo Panizza,
Carlos Eduardo Vélez,
UNCTAD, United Nations
The World Bank
Susan Parker,
Leonardo Villar,
Center for Teaching and Research in Economics (CIDE)
Corporación Andina de Fomento
Organizing Institutions
Research at the Banco de la
República de Colombia
The Banco de la República was established as the Central Bank of Colombia
on the 25th of July 1923 by means of Law 25. The Bank was organized as an anonymous
society with a starting capital of 10 million in gold, of which the Government provided
50% and foreign and national commercial banks as well as some private individuals
contributed the remainder. This entity was exclusively entrusted with the faculty of
issuing Colombian legal tender, administrating the country’s international reserves,
acting as banker to the Government and serving as a last resort moneylender. The
Bank’s Board of Directors, composed of 10 members consisting of representatives
both from the private and public sectors, was entrusted by Law 25 with the exercise of
regulatory and monetary controls with strict adherence to the parameters of financial
orthodoxy. The Board was also given the responsibility of establishing the discount
rate and intervening to control interest rates.
The Banco de la República plays a fundamental part in the economic and
institutional organization of the country. With the passage of time, this institution
has undergone important changes, and has adapted itself to serve an economy in a
permanent process of growth and development.
Different areas of the Banco de la República, in different cities of Colombia,
produce research on a broad range of topics: financial, monetary and exchange
markets, international economics, economic development, growth, labor markets,
labor economics, regional economics, etc. Today, the Bank has a Research Unit in
Bogotá, a Regional Center of Economic Studies in Cartagena, and a Regional Division
of Economic Studies in Medellín. As of September 2010, the Banco de la República was
ranked sixth (second) among all institutions in South America according to RePec, and
it was the first (first) Colombian institution in that ranking (W. Rank).
VI.
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Department of Economics
Universidad EAFIT
The Universidad EAFIT was founded on 1960 by a group of entrepreneurs with the
purpose of bringing up suitable professionals aware of their responsibility with the
country. Today, the University has four Schools – Management, Engineering, Sciences
and Humanities, and Law.
The Department of Economics is within the Management School and its
purpose is to educate professionals with the necessary skills to lead the processes of
social and economic transformation that are required in the country, Latin America,
and the world, in line with the University institutional mission. With this in mind,
the Department of Economics offers an undergraduate and a Master program in
Economics taught by leading national scholars, together with extension courses.
Our research groups are very active publish regularly in high ranked international
scientific journals.
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Universidad EAFIT
Department of Economics
The University of Antioquia is a Colombian public university founded in 1803. This
institution represents an important point of reference in the development of science
and the technology in Colombia. Since its foundation in 1944, the Department of
Economics of the University of Antioquia has played an important role in the education
of economists, who are able to face the challenges imposed by the evolution of the
Colombian economy. Currently, the Department of Economics is devoted to teaching,
research and consultancy in the different fields of the economic science. In this sense,
we offer an undergraduate program in Economics and two graduate programs: an
International Cooperation program and a Master in Economics. The Department
of Economics has five quality certified research and consultancy groups: Applied
Macroeconomics, Applied Microeconomics, Regional Studies, Health Economics, and
Applied Econometrics.
Nowadays, our teacher staff has a significant background, resulting
from both their high academic qualification, and their national and international
research experience. As a result of its distinguished performance, the Department
of Economics publishes two recognized academic journals: Lecturas de Economía
and Perfil de Coyuntura Económica. LACEA Annual Conference 2010 is the
opportunity to share different experiences around the most urgent problems of the
Latin American economies.
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The Centro de Pensamiento Social was established by an inter-institutional alliance
made between ANDI, the National Business Association of Colombia; COMFAMA a
private and autonomous social enterprise; Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. – ISA, the largest
company of electric energy transportation in Colombia; Foundation for the Progress of
Antioquia - PROANTIOQUIA, and ARP SURA, a workers’ compensation corporation. His
purpose is to enhance the independent research, opinion, critics, and social studies,
improving the social public policies and corporate social responsibility.
The Centro de Pensamiento bases its operations on three pillars. First,
increase the dialogue between civil society-academics-enterprises, all around social
problems in Colombia. Second, build an organization which promotes independent
research and provides an intellectual platform to establish innovative policies and
constructive solutions in terms of investment and social programs, to face the country’s
challenges and opportunities in a world increasingly interdependent, keeping in mind
the increasingly relevant role of private sector. Finally, knowing that Think-Tanks are
signals of intellectual capacity to create ideas and opinions.
Our main activities are related to: creating meeting spaces between public,
private and social institutions trough the Catedra de Pensamiento Social, an
interdisciplinary initiative to analyze topics like poverty, inequality, social protection,
health system, labor market, social development, education, and others. Also,
provide new knowledge and socializing research projects trough our Working Papers
(Documentos de Trabajo). And last, look for a direct incidence in public policy and
corporate social responsibility, in our Seminarios Tecnicos, a methodological approach
to find solutions of social problems in our region.
In brief, the Centro de Pensamiento Social pretends to be a decisive factor to
establish public opinions and to create effective public and private policies.
VII. Latin American and
Caribbean Economic
Association
The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) is an international
association of economists with common research interests in Latin America and
the Caribbean. It was founded in July 1992 to facilitate the exchange of ideas among
economists and policymakers. Its purpose is to encourage greater professional
interaction among economists concerned with Latin American and Caribbean policy
and research problems, without regard to political, ideological or methodological
orientation.
Starting from 1996, LACEA has held annual meetings in Buenos Aires,
Bogotá, Santiago, Rio de Janeiro, Montevideo, Madrid, Puebla, San José Costa Rica
and Paris. These meetings have been jointly organized with the Latin American
Chapter of the Econometric Society (LAMES) since 2006. LACEA is part of the Allied
Social Sciences Association.
LACEA sponsors five specialized research networks: the Network on
Inequality and Poverty (NIP); the Political Economy Group (PEG); the Trade,
Integration and Growth Network (TIGN); the Impact Evaluation Network (IEN);
and the International Finance and Economics Camps Network. LACEA’s associate
networks organize regular meetings and workshops allowing a more specialized
and detailed discussion of papers than it is possible during the general meetings of
LACEA. Since 2000, LACEA has been publishing its own journal Economia that has
recently released its nineteenth issue.
LACEA is generously supported by grants from the Global Development
Network and the World Bank’s Development Grant Facility. In addition, the annual
meetings have been supported by grants from The World Bank, The Inter-American
Development Bank, The Ford Foundation, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation,
among others. LACEA has increasingly evolved to a funding allocation on the basis
of a competitive process, under which funds are allocated to the various activities
based both on quality standards and capacity-building criteria. LACEA funding has
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been used to reach out to minorities, and economists of under-represented countries
of Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as to bring policy-makers closer to the
association’s activities under the GDN objective of bridging research and policy.
Since its inception LACEA has grown to an organization with currently 800 active
members. All LACEA members enjoy exclusive benefits: invitations to participate in
LACEA’s annual meetings, mentoring program, summer schools, and other programs
and academic activities organized by LACEA; biannual issues of Economia; access to
JSTOR’s Economic and Business Collection; and receiving a fortnightly newsletter
with information about grant/funding opportunities and academic activities.
For more Information about LACEA’s history, bylaws, activities, and membership can
be found at www.lacea.org.
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Past Meetings:
Year
Location
Host Institution
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Ciudad de México, México
Bogotá, Colombia
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Santiago, Chile
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Montevideo, Uruguay
Madrid, Spain
Puebla, Mexico
San José, Costa Rica
Paris, France
Mexico City, Mexico
Bogotá, Colombia
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Instituto Autónomo Nacional de México
Fedesarrollo, Universidad de los Andes
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
CERES, Universidad Ort
CEMFI
Universidad de las Américas
Universidad de Costa Rica, INCAE
The American University in Paris
Instituto Tecnológico Autonomo de Mexico
Fedesarrollo and Universidad de los Andes
Fundación Getulio Vargas
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Parque Biblioteca “León de Greiff” | La Ladera
VIII. Sponsors
a. Permanent Sponsors
• Banco Central de Chile
• Bank for International Settlements
• Corporación Andina de Fomento
• Global Development Network
• Inter-American Development Bank
• International Monetary Fund
• Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association
• The World Bank
b. 2010 Sponsors
• Grupo Bancolombia
• Alcaldía de Medellín
• Grupo BBVA
• Cementos ARGOS S.A
• Grupo Nacional de Chocolates S.A.
• Coltabaco S.A. - Phillip Morris International Inc.
• Protección S.A.
• Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A.
• Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas
• Banco de España
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IX.
General Information
Information Desk
The information Desk is located in front of the Fundadores Auditorium.
It will be opened throughout the conference from 8:00 to 19:30.
If you need help or any assistance, please visit us there.
Access to the conference
Conference participants are required to show their badges at all times in
order to have access to the conference rooms, lunch, and social events.
Social events
Opening Reception
November 11, 19:35 – 21:30
Antioquia Museum
This reception is sponsored by BBVA
LACEA Dinner and Party
Novembre 12, 19:15 – 23:00
Plaza Mayor Medellín, Exposiciones y Convenciones.
Closing Ceremony
November 13, 19:15 – 20:30
Universidad EAFIT
Medical Assistance, Hospitals
Please contact the information desk if you need medical assistance
during the conference hours. For more serious conditions or after hours,
we recommend going directly to the emergency rooms at any of these
private hospitals.
Lunch and coffee breaks
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Lunch will be served next to the Fundadores Auditorium. There will be
coffee and tea stations in the buildings where the conferences will be held.
Shuttle Buses
There will be transportation to and from the Universidad EAFIT organized
by the logistic personnel in the university.
Sendero Peatonal Plaza Mayor | Edificio EPM
Taxis
Please visit the information desk if you would like to be picked up by a taxi
at the Conference Center.
Internet and Computers
Wireless internet service for your laptop is available throughout the
University. You can use the Universidad EAFIT´s access to WIFI in your
laptop under the name INVITADOS.EAFIT
For those who need a computer there will be Computer Rooms available
in the building 18 and 38.
Restaurants
Restaurant Cuisine
Hato Viejo Il Forno Fatto in Casa El Zocalo In China Sushi Light La Provincia Tabun Herbario El Cielo Mystique San Carbón La Cafetiere de Anita Antioqueña
Italian
Italian
Mexican
Chinese
Japanese
French (Mediterranean)
Arabic (Mediterranean)
New generacion
New generacion
New generacion
Argentinean grilled
French
You can exchange US dollars into Colombian pesos in Bancolombia Office
(Building 18) and there will be a travel agency stand (AVIATUR).
Currency exchange and travel agency
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X.
Conference Program
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Jardín Bontánico, Joaquin Antonio Uribe
Thursday November 11 2010
The Medellin Botanic Garden, Joaquin Antonio Uribe, was opened
on April 19th, 1972. It is a “living museum” and a center for the scientific
research that offers education, recreation and culture. It has 14 hectares
of scientifically organized living collections, which form a beautiful garden
of diverse plants of various groups and species to enjoy in the heart of
the city. The Botanic Garden has also an exhibition place (Orquideorama)
together with a lake, exotic plants and trees, a restaurant, a coffee shop, a
theatre, meeting rooms, a gift store, a nursery room, and a parking zone.
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08:00 - 08:30
REGISTRATION
08:30 - 10:00
OPENING CEREMONY
Ricardo Hausmann, President, LACEA
Juan Jose Echavarría, Chair, LACEA 2010
“TBA”
Andrés Velasco, Fellow Harvard Center for International Development and Adjunct
Professor of Public Policy
10:15 - 11:45
INVITED SESSIONS
10:15 - 11:45
Presentation of the book: “declining inequality in latin america: a
decade of progress?” Edited by luis f. Lopez-calva and nora lustig
(brookings institution and undp, 2010)
Room:
Fund adores
Auditorium
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
Chairperson: Nora Lustig, Tulane University
WHY DID INEQUALITY DECLINE IN LATIN AMERICA?
Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva, UNDP and The World Bank
Co-author: Nora Lustig, Tulane University
A DISTRIBUTION IN MOTION: THE CASE OF ARGENTINA
Leonardo Gasparini, Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (Universidad
Nacional de La Plata)
Co-author: Guillermo Cruces, Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies
(Universidad Nacional de La Plata)
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A DECADE OF FALLING INEQUALITY IN MEXICO: MARKET FORCES OR STATE ACTION?
Gerardo Esquivel, El Colegio de México
Co-authors: Nora Lustig, Tulane University and John Scott, Centro de Investigación y
Docencia Económica (CIDE) - Mexico.
INEQUALITY IN POST-STRUCTURAL REFORM PERU: THE ROLE OF MARKET AND
POLICY FORCES
Miguel Jaramillo, Grupo de Analisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)
Co-author: Jaime Saavedra, The World Bank.
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REDISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES IN LATIN AMERICA
James A. Robinson, Harvard University
10:15 - 11:45
Economia Panel: Applied Microeconomics
Chairperson: Roberto Rigobón, MIT
DOES PERSONALIZED PENSION PROJECTION AFFECT THE RETIREMENT
DECISION? EVIDENCE FOR CHILE
Jorge Miranda Pinto, Superintendence of Pensions of Chile
Associate editor: Rodrigo Soares, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
WILL PANAMA EXPERIENCE LARGE POVERTY EFFECTS FROM THE CANAL
EXPANSION?
Rafael de Hoyos, The World Bank
Co-authors: Maurizio Bussolo, and Denis Medvedev, The World Bank
Associate editor: Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes
Room:
Fabricato
Auditorium
10:15 - 11:45
Individual behaviour of households and firms in developing
countries: markets, policies and institutions
Chairperson: Costas Meghir, University College London
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS IN MICROENTERPRISES: IS AFRICA DIFFERENT?
Chris Woodruff, University of Warwick
EFFECTS OF COLOMBIA’S SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM ON WORKERS’ CHOICE
BETWEEN FORMAL AND INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT
Emily Conover, Hamilton College
INFORMALITY AND WAGES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Costas Meghir, University College London
Co-Authors: Renata Narita and Jean Marc Robin, University College London
10:15 - 11:45
Micro and Macro Evidence on the Scarring Effects of Recessions
Chairperson: Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes
Room:
35 - 201
UNEMPLOYMENT IN LATIN AMERICA
Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University
Co-Author: Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS, THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND FIRM DYNAMICS IN
COLOMBIA
Marcela Eslava, Universidad de Los Andes.
Co-Authors: Arturo Galindo and Alejandro Izquierdo, IADB; and Marc Hofstetter,
Universidad de los Andes.
Fiscal Multipliers
Chairperson: Carlos Vegh, University of Maryland
FISCAL CYCLICALITY AND FISCAL RULES IN THE WORLD AND IN CHILE
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Catholic University of Chile
Room:
Engineering
Building,
Auditorium,
5th Floor
THE SCIENCE OF FISCAL MULTIPLIERS: A BAYESIAN EXPLORATION
Todd Walker, Indiana University
Co-Authors: Eric Leeper and Nora Traum, Indiana University
HOW BIG (SMALL) ARE FISCAL MULTIPLIERS?
Carlos Vegh, University of Maryland and Nber
Co-Authors: Ethan Ilzetzki, London School of Economics and Enrique Mendoza,
University of Maryland
10:15 - 11:45
The Micro Dynamics of Price Rigidities: Evidence from Argentina
under hyperinflation, mild inflation and deflation
Room:
35 - 301
Chairperson: Andrés Neumeyer, Torcuato Di Tella University
SCRAPED DATA AND STICKY PRICES
Alberto Cavallo, MIT Sloan School of Management
10:15 - 11:45
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VIRTUE OF BAD TIMES AND FINANCIAL MARKET FRICTIONS
Min Ouyang, University of California Irvine
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PRICE DYNAMICS AND INFLATION IN ARGENTINA
Andrés Neumeyer, Torcuato Di Tella University
Co-author: Fernando Alvarez and Martin Beraja, The University of Chicago; and
Martin Gonzalez Rozada, Torcuato Di Tella University
10:15 - 11:45
Recent Innovations to Improve Financial Inclusion: Latest Fad or a
New Trend?
This session is sponsored by the Corporación Andina de Fomento
Room:
Auditorium
38-125
Chairperson: Leonardo Villar, CAF
PANELISTS:
Liliana Rojas Suarez, Center for Global Development
Shawn Cole, Harvard Business School
Augusto de la Torre, The World Bank
Pablo Sanguinetti, CAF
11:55-12:55
CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS
11:55-12:55
Education I
Room:
35 - 101
WHO ELSE IS BENEFITING FROM CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS?
INDIRECT EFFECTS ON SIBLINGS IN NICARAGUA
Monserrat Bustelo, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC SPENDING BETWEEN COMPULSORY AND
HIGHER EDUCATION
Fernanda Estevan Goncalves, University of Ottawa
11:55-12:55
Female Labor Market Outcomes
Room:
35 - 201
LABOR SUPPLY OF MARRIED WOMEN IN MEXICO: 1990-2000
Eva Olimpia Arceo-Gomez, CIDE-México
THE EFFECTS OF LENGTHENING THE SCHOOL DAY ON LABOR FEMALE SUPPLY:
EVIDENCE FROM A QUASI-EXPERIMENT IN CHILE
Paulina Sepulveda, IADB
Co-author: Dante Contreras, University of Chile
11:55-12:55
International Migration and Remittances I
Room :
35 - 102
REMITTANCES AND THE PROBLEM OF CONTROL: A FIELD EXPERIMENT AMONG
MIGRANTS FROM EL SALVADOR
Dean Yang, University of Michigan
GREAT EXPECTATIONS: INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AMONG DESCENDANTS
OF MEXICAN IMMIGRANTS IN THE U.S.
Ana Sofia Leon Lince, Harris School of Public Policy and the University of Chicago
22
11:55-12:55
Pensions I
REFORMS TO AN INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT PENSION SYSTEM AND THEIR EFFECTS
ON WORK AND CONTRIBUTION DECISIONS: THE CASE OF CHILE
Viviana Velez-Grajales, IADB
Room:
35 - 301
NOTIONAL DEFINED CONTRIBUTION (NDC) PENSION PROGRAMS WITH SPARSE
CONTRIBUTION DENSITIES
Alvaro Forteza, Universidad de la Republica-Urugay
Co-author: Ianina Rossi, Universidad de la Republica-Urugay
11:55-12:55
Business Cycles I
Room:
35 - 202
ON THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
Andres Fernandez, Universidad de los Andes
FIXED AND VARIABLE-RATE MORTGAGES, BUSINESS CYCLES AND MONETARY
POLICY
Margarita Rubio, Bank of Spain
11:55-12:55
Institutions and Firm’s Productivity
Room:
35 - 203
DEBT ENFORCEMENT, FIRM DYNAMICS AND AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY
Bernardo Cruz Morais, UCLA
Middle Classes: Measurement and Political Economy Implications
Room:
35 - 401
DOWN AND OUT OR UP AND IN? LATIN AMERICA’S ELUSIVE MIDDLE CLASS
Guillermo Cruces, Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (Universidad
Co-authors: Diego Battiston, Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies
(Universidad Nacional de La Plata); and Luis F. Lopez Calva, UNDP and The World
Bank
BIGGER… BUT STRONGER? THE MIDDLE CLASS IN CHILE AND MEXICO IN THE
LAST DECADE
Luis F. Lopez Calva, Undp and The World Bank
Co-authors: Dagmar Hertova, UNDESA and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, UNDP, Regional
Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean
11:55-12:55
The Global Financial Crisis
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES
IN THE OUTPUT IMPACT
Gaston Gelos, IMF
Co-authors: Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennkack and James Walsh; IMF
Room:
27 - 102
1
INTERNATIONAL LENDING OF LAST RESORT AND SOVEREIGN DEBT
RESTRUCTURING
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, IADB
11:55-12:55
SME POLICY AND FIRMS’S PRODUCTIVITY IN LATIN AMERICA
Alessandro Maffioli, IADB
Co-authors: Pablo Ibarraran, IADB and Rodolfo Stucchi, University of Gottingen and
IADB
23
11:55 -12:55
Poverty and Inequality I
Room:
35 - 302
ACUTE MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY: A NEW INDEX FOR DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
Maria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University
of Oxford and Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET)Universidad Nacional del Sur (Argentina)
ON INFLATION, WEALTH INEQUALITY AND WELFARE IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
Enes Sunel, University of Maryland
11:55-12:55
MicroFinance
Room:
38 - 119
HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION & THE LIFE CYCLE
Andreas Fagereng, European University Institute
FROM PAWNSHOPS TO BANKS: THE IMPACT OF FORMAL CREDIT ON INFORMAL
HOUSEHOLDS
Claudia Ruiz, UCLA
11:55-12:55
1
Econometrics I
STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN FISCAL PERFORMANCE: DID FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
LAWS HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THEM?
Leandro Medina, the George Washington University and IMF
Co-authors: Carlos Caceres and Ana Corbacho; IMF
USING THE FLOW OF CONJECTURAL INFORMATION FOR SHORT TERM
FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN ARGENTINA
María Lorena Garegnani, Central Bank of the Argentinian Republic
Co-authors: Emilio Blanco and Laura D’amato; Banco Central de la Republica
Argentina
11:55-12:55
Macroeconomics
SYSTEMIC RISK AND INEFFICIENT DEBT MATURITY
Julien Bengui, University of Maryland
Microeconomics I
ROSCAS AS A SELF-COMMITMENT DEVICE: EVIDENCE FROM MEXICO
Pedro Gerardo Bernal Lara, University Of Chicago
Co-author: Pavel Luengas, Oxford University-Green Templeton College
Room:
27 - 203
STATE-DEPENDENT PRICING UNDER INFREQUENT INFORMATION: A UNIFIED
FRAMEWORK
Marco Bonomo, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Co-authors: Carlos Carvalho, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and René Garcia,
Edhec Business School
11:55-12:55
24
Room:
35 - 303
RISK PREFERENCE AND RISK SHARING: EVIDENCE FROM MEXICO
Carolina Mejia Mantilla, UCLA
Room:
35 - 402
11:55 - 12:55
Health and Welfare
Room:
38 - 118
MARKET REGULATION AND FIRM PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF SMOKING BANS
IN THE U.K.
Samuel Berlinski, IADB
ECONOMIC CRISES AND LONG-TERM HEALTH EFFECTS: EVIDENCE FROM
PUERTO RICO’S 1928 AND 1932 HURRICANES
Orlando Sotomayor, University of Puerto Rico
11:55 - 12:55
Business Taxes and Subsidies
Room:
35 - 403
CORPORATE TAX STIMULUS AND INVESTMENT IN COLOMBIA
Arturo Galindo, IADB
Co-author: Marcela Melendez , Econestudio-Colombia
THE EFFECTS OF TAX INCENTIVES FOR SMALL FIRMS ON EMPLOYMENT LEVELS
Rodrigo Moura, Epge/Fgv-Brazil
Co-author: Carlos Corseuil, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
Chairperson: Juan Camilo Cardenas, Universidad de los Andes
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
POST-WALRASIAN MICROECONOMICS
Samuel Bowles, Santa Fe Institute
Discussant: Ricardo Hausmann, Center for International Development at Harvard
University
15:05 - 16:35
INVITED SESSIONS
15:05 - 16:35
Poverty and Political Economy in Latin America
Chairperson: Frederico Finan, UC Berkeley
THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT OF POVERTY ALLEVIATION: EVIDENCE FROM
MEXICO’S OPORTUNIDADES PROGRAM
Craig McIntosh, UC San Diego
Room:
Engineering
Building,
Auditorium,
5th Floor
INDIAN IDENTITY, POVERTY, AND COLONIAL DEVELOPMENT IN MEXICO
Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, UC San Diego
POLITICAL PATHOLOGIES AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT
Frederico Finan, UC Berkeley
15:05 - 16:35
Middle Classes in Latin America
Chairperson: Jeff Dayton, Chief Economist - OECD Development Centre
1
PLENARY LECTURE
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
BEING MIDDLE CLASS IN LATIN AMERICA
Francesca Castellani, IADB
Co-author: Gwenn Parent, Paris School of Economics
13:55 - 14:55
25
SOCIAL MOBILITY AND MIDDLE CLASSES
Guillermo Cruces, Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (Universidad
Nacional de La Plata); and Luis Felipe López-Calva, UNDP and The World Bank
THE ECONOMY OF THE POSSIBLE: PENSIONS AND INFORMALITY IN LATIN
AMERICA
Angel Melguizo, Economist OECD, Development Centre.
Co-authors: Rita Da Costa, Consultant; Juan De Laiglesia, Economist; and
Emmanuelle Martinez, Consultant; OECD Development Centre
15:05 - 16:35
The Pricing of Emerging-Market Bonds: Then versus Now
Chairperson: Ugo Panizza, UNCTAD and The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Room:
Fabricato
Auditorium
THE COSTS OF GOING PUBLIC IN THE EMERGING CORPORATE BOND MARKET:
THE ROLE OF BANK REPUTATION AND RATING AGENCIES
Rolando Avendaño, OECD Development Centre, and Sebastián Nieto-Parra, OECD
Development Centre
CORPORATE CREDIT SPREADS AND THE SOVEREIGN CEILING IN LATIN
AMERICA
Martin Grandes, Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, Demian Tupac Panigo,
Universidad Nacional de La Plata, and Ricardo Aníbal Pasquini, Center for
Financial Stability and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
1
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, REPUTATION, AND THE INTERWAR DEBT CRISIS:
BANKSTERS OR BAD LUCK?
Marc Flandreau, The Graduate Institute; Norbert Gaillard, World Bank; and Ugo
Panizza, UNCTAD and The Graduate Institute, Geneva
15:05 - 16:35
Institutions, Credit, and Economic Activity
Chairperson: Rodrigo R. Soares, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Room:
35-301
OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE AND COMMITMENT POWER: INFERENTIAL EVIDENCE
FROM CHANGES IN THE AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT CONTRACTS
Gabriel Madeira , University of Sao Paulo
Co-Authors: Marcos Rangel, Harris School and Mauro Rodriguez, University of Sao Paulo
POLITICIZED LENDING: CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND ACCESS TO CREDIT IN
BRAZIL
Cláudio Ferraz, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Co-Authors: Sérgio Leão and João Manoel Pinho de Mello, Pontifical Catholic
University of Rio de Janeiro
ACCESS TO JUSTICE AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL’S
SPECIAL CIVIL TRIBUNALS
Rodrigo R. Soares, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Co-Authors: Guilherme Lichand, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
26
15:05 - 16:35
How Experiments can Inform Policies and How Policy can Inform
Experiments
Chairperson: Juan Camilo Cardenas, Universidad de los Andes
Room:
35 - 201
TRUST, INFORMATION ACQUISITION AND FINANCIAL DECISIONS: A FIELD
EXPERIMENT
Alexander Elbittar, CIDE México
Co-authors: Sonia Di Giannatale, CIDE-México; Patricia López Rodriguez, ITAMMéxico; and María José Roa, Universidad Carlos III De Madrid.
DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO, TELL ME WHO TO FOLLOW! FIELD EXPERIMENT
EVIDENCE ON VOLUNTARY DONATIONS
Francisco Alpizar, CATIE and Director of the Latin American and Caribbean
Environmental Economics Program (LACEEP)
COLLECTIVE ACTION IN WATERSHEDS AND THE CHALLENGES FOR PUBLIC
POLICY
Juan Camilo Cardenas, Universidad de Los Andes
15:05 - 16:35
Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America: A New Paradigm?
This Session is co-sponsored by the Inter-American
Development Bank and The World Bank
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
Chairperson: Francisco Ferreira, The World Bank
PANELISTS:
William Maloney, The World Bank
Hugo A. Hopenhayn, UCLA and NBER
Carmen Pages, IADB
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
Chairperson: Ramon Moreno, Head of Economics for Latin America and the
Caribbean, BIS
PANELISTS:
Jose Dario Uribe, Central Bank of Colombia
Andres Velasco, Fellow Harvard Center for International Development and Adjunct
Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Brazil
16:55 - 18:25
ROUND TABLE: POLICY AND MULTILATERALS
16:55 - 18:25
The Limits to Growth and Productivity in Latin America
This Session is sponsored by the Inter-American Development
Bank
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
Global factors and monetary policies in emerging market
economies
This session is sponsored by the Bank for International
Settlements
Chairperson: Santiago Levy, IADB
PANELIST:
Andres Velasco, Fellow Harvard Center for International Development and Adjunct
15:05 - 16:35
1
27
16:55 - 18:25
Presentation of the Brookings Economic Outlook for Latin America
Chairperson: Roberto Steiner, Fedesarrollo
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
PRESENTERS:
Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, Torcuato Di Tella Unversity
Mauricio Cardenas, Brookings Institution
DISCUSSANTS:
Jose Dario Uribe, Central Bank of Colombia
Rodrigo Valdez, IMF
Roberto Rigobón, MIT
16:55 - 18:25
Central Banks in Latin America and the Financial Crisis: Ahead of
the Curve?
This session is sponsored by the Banco de España
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
Chairperson: Enrique Alberola, Banco de España
PANELISTS:
Augusto de la Torre, The World Bank
Andrew Powell, IADB
1
18:35 - 19:35
Chairperson: Alberto Naranjo, Universidad EAFIT, Co-Chair, LACEA 2010
28
PLENARY LECTURE
RETHINKING GROWTH POLICY TWO YEARS INTO THE CRISIS
Philippe Aghion, Harvard University
19:35-21:30
OPENING RECEPTION
Location: Museo de Antioquia
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
2
+
Metro | Parque Berrío
Friday November 12 2010
Metro de Medellín began operations on November 30, 1995 and currently
conveys around 500,000 commuters on a daily basis. The Metro system
runs on electricity and, thus, is free of carbon emissions. Furthermore,
the Metro Culture promotes good citizenship standards as a foremost
value–added benefit. Despite many years in service, the cleanliness
and good repair throughout the Metro system, coupled with widespread
civility, show how environmental and behavioral standards prevail.
Metro radically improved the city’s lifestyle by providing a rapid and safe
mass transit system. In 2004, the company pioneered the first aerial
tramway for mass transit worldwide. Currently, there are 3 operational
tramway lines and two more are under construction.
+
8:15 - 8:45
REGISTRATION
8:45 - 10:15
INVITED SESSIONS
8:45 - 10:15
Impact Evaluation of Social Policies in Latin America
Projects PEP Research Network
Room:
35 - 201
Chairperson: Martin Valdivia, Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)
EXTERNALITY AND BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE EFFECTS OF A NONRANDOMIZED
CCT PROGRAM – HETEROGENEOUS IMPACT ON HEALTH AND EDUCATION
OUTCOMES
Clarissa Teixeira, UNDP IPC-IG
Co-authors: Fabio Soares, Elydia Silva, Guilherme Hirata, Joana Costa and Tatiana
Brito, UNDP IPC-IG.
Discussant: Hugo Ñopo, IADB
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF LFE ON EDUCATIONAL AND LABOR OUTCOMES IN
ARGENTINA
María Laura Alzúa, Center For Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (Universidad
Co-authors: Germán Bet, Leonardo Gasparini and Francisco Haimovich, Center for
Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (Universidad Nacional de La Plata)
Discussant: Ana Santiago, IADB
2
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, ADULT LABOR SUPPLY AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME - AN
IMPACT EVALUATION OF PANES
Verónica Amarante, UDELAR
Co-authors: Mery Ferrando and Andrea Vigorito, UDELAR
Discussant: Luis Felipe Lopez Calva, UNDP and The World Bank
8:45 - 10:15
The development and impact of human capital in Latin America and
Caribbean: Evidence from the origin
Room:
35 - 301
Chairperson: Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
BRAINS VERSUS BRAWN: LABOR MARKET RETURNS TO INTELLECTUAL AND
PHYSICAL HUMAN CAPITAL IN A POOR DEVELOPING COUNTRY
Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS AND BIRTH OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM THE
URUGUAYAN PANES
Marco Manacorda, Queen Mary y LSE
Co-authors: Veronica Amarante, E. Miguel and Andrea Vigorito, UDELAR
EARLY CHILD DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY: DO THEY
MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
30
8:45 - 10:15
Labor Markets in Latin American Countries: Do Current
Comparisons Make Sense?
Chairperson: Luis E Arango; Banco de la República de Colombia (Central Bank
of Colombia)
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
THE CASE OF MEXICO
Tomas Ramirez, Institute of National Statistics and Geography of Mexico, INEGI
THE CASE OF BRAZIL
Cimar Azeredo Pereira, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, IBGE
THE CASE OF CHILE
Domingo Claps, National Institute of Statistics of Chile, INE
THE CASE OF COLOMBIA
Eduardo E. Freire Delgado, National Department of Statistics of Colombia, DANE
DISCUSSANTS:
Norman Loayza, The World Bank
William Maloney, The World Bank
Carmen Pages, IADB
Economia Panel: Applied Macroeconomics
Room:
Auditorium
Fabricato
INFLATION TARGETING IN LATIN AMERICA: TOWARD A MONETARY UNION?
Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes
Associate Editor: Ugo Panizza, UNCTAD
2
ON THE TRANSMISSION OF GLOBAL SHOCKS TO LATIN AMERICA BEFORE AND
AFTER CHINA’S EMERGENCY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
Alessandro Rebucci, IADB
Associate editor: Claudio Raddatz, The World Bank
FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION AND CENTRAL BANK CREDIBILITY
Quy-Toan Do, The World Bank
Co-author: Kevin Cowan , Central Bank of Chile
Associate Editor: Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, IADB
8:45 - 10:15
Beyond the BRICs
Chairperson: Roberto Steiner, Fedesarrollo
PRESENTATION:
Alicia García Herrero
Chief Economist, Emerging Markets, BBVA Hong Kong
Room:
Engineering
Building,
Auditorium,
5th Floor
COMMENTS:
Guillermo Perry, RFK Visiting Professor at Harvard Kennedy School, Non Resident
Fellow CGD, Investigador asociado Fedesarrollo
8:30 - 10:30
Eduardo Levi Yeyati, Universidad Torcuato di Tella
Crime Economics
Chairperson: Ernesto Schargrodsky, UTDT
INDIRECT EFFECTS OF A POLICY ALTERING CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE
FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT
Francesco Drago, University of Naples (Parthenope)
Room:
35 - 401
8:45 - 10:15
31
DID THE VIETNAM DRAFT INCREASE HUMAN CAPITAL DISPERSION? DRAFT
AVOIDANCE BEHAVIOR BY RACE AND CLASS
Ilyana Kuziemko, Princeton University (New Jersey)
CRIMINAL RECIDIVISM AFTER PRISON AND ELECTRONIC MONITORING
Ernesto Schargrodsky, UTDT
Co-Author: Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School, CIfAR and NBER
8:45 - 10:15
Recomposing world growth: the future of global imbalances”
In this session the discussion will focus on whether the current global financial crisis
represents an opportunity to reduce global imbalances or they will simply reappear
as world recovery unfolds. Given the current pattern of world growth, prospects for
some countries in Latin America look positive while the recovery in others, especially
in Central America and the Caribbean may be delayed. In this context, the session
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
discusses the patterns of world growth that would be consistent with “balanced
growth” in Latin America, and the domestic and world policies that would allow for
more balanced and sustainable growth in the region
This Session is co-sponsored by the Inter - American
Development Bank and The World Bank
Chairperson: Augusto de la Torre, The World Bank
2
PANELISTS:
Carlos Vegh, University of Maryland
Andrew Powell, IADB
Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferrati, IMF
10:40 - 12:10
10:40 - 12:10
Trade I
FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, DEMOCRACY AND TRADE POLICY DIVERGENCE
Gustavo Torrens, Washington University (St. Louis)
Co-author: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University and Norman Schofield
REGIONAL GDP PER CAPITA CONVERGENCE IN A REFORMING ECONOMY: THE
ROLE OF TRADE OPENNESS AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Maria Valentina Konow Vial, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile
Co-author: Francisco Gallego, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile
WEAK GOVERNMENTS AND TRADE AGREEMENTS
Laura Zoratto, Graduade Institute (Geneva)
Co-author: Marcelo Olarreaga, University of Geneva and CEPR
10:40 - 12:10
32
Room:
35 - 101
Gender Discrimination
USING AN EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH TO IDENTIFY LABOR MARKET
DISCRIMINATION BASED ON GENDER AND SOCIAL CLASS A DEVELOPING
ECONOMY
Claudia Sanhueza, UAH-Georgetown University
Co-authors: David Bravo, University of Chile; Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
Room:
35-102
EVOLUTION OF GENDER WAGE GAPS IN LATIN AMERICA AT THE TURN OF THE
TWENTIETH CENTURY: AN ADDENDUM TO NEW CENTURY OLD DISPARITIES
Hugo Ñopo, IADB
Co-author: Alejandro Hoyos, IADB
SELECTION, HETEROGENEITY AND THE GENDER WAGE GAP
Cecilia Machado, Columbia University
10:40 - 12:10
Education II
PARENTAL EDUCATION AND COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EARLY CHILDHOOD:
LONGITUDINAL EVIDENCE FROM ECUADOR
Norbert Schady, IADB
Room:
38 - 103
PREPRIMARY ACCESS AND PROGRESSION IN PRIMARY SCHOOLS: EVIDENCE
FROM A LARGE-SCALE CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM IN RURAL GUATEMALA
Nicolas Bottan, IADB
Co-authors: Paulo Bastos and Julian Cristia, IADB
International Migration and Remittances II
Room:
35 - 301
IMMIGRATION, REMITTANCES AND BUSINESS CYCLES
Andrei Zlate, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES AND MIGRANT PORTFOLIO INTERESTS
Susan Pozo, Westen Michigan University
Co-authorS: Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, San Diego State University
THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCE FEES ON REMITTANCE FLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM A
FIELD EXPERIMENT AMONG SALVADORAN MIGRANTS
Diego Aycinena, Francisco Marroquin University
Co-authors: Claudia Martínez A., University of Chile and Dean Yang, University of
Michigan
10:40 - 12:10
Environmental Economics
CLIMATE COST UNCERTAINTY, RETROFIT COST UNCERTAINTY, AND
INFRASTRUCTURE CLOSEDOWN: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS
Sebastian Miller, IADB
Co-author: Jon Strand, The World Bank
Room:
35 - 202
2
HURRICANES AND LABOR OUTCOMES: A DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCE
APPROACH FOR MEXICO
Eduardo Rodriguez-Oreggia, EGAP ITESM CEM
10:40 - 12:10
THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURED TEACHING METHODS ON THE QUALITY OF
EDUCATION IN BRAZIL
André Portela Souza, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Co-authors: Maria Carolina Leme and Vladimir Poncze, Getulio Vargas Foundation;
and Paula Louzano, Lehman Foundation
33
10:40 - 12:10
Monetary Policy
CAPITAL FLOWS, CREDIT FRICTIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING
MARKETS
Pablo Federico, University of Maryland
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
HOW EFFECTIVE WERE THE FEDERAL RESERVE EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY
FACILITIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE ASSET-BACKED COMMERCIAL PAPER MONEY
MARKET MUTUAL FUND LIQUIDITY FACILITY
Gustavo Suarez, Federal Reserve Board
Co-authors: Burcu Duygan-Bump, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
IS EXCHANGE RATE STABILIZATION AN APPROPRIATE CURE FOR THE DUTCH DISEASE?
Ruy Lama, IMF
Co-author: Juan Pablo Medina, Central Bank of Chile
10:40 - 12:10
Room:
35 - 203
THE EFFECTS OF SCHOOLING ON LABOR MARKET AND HEALTH OUTCOMES
Gregory Veramendi, Northwestern University
Co-authors: James Heckman, University of Chicago and Sergio Urzua, Northwestern
University
2
LEAD EXPOSURE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT: EVIDENCE
FROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL NEGLIGENCE
Loreto Reyes, University of Chile
Co-authors: Tomás Rau, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and Sergio Urzua,
Northwestern University
DRY LAW FOR DRUNK DRIVERS: THE IMPACT OF ALCOHOL-RELATED LAWS ON
CAR ACCIDENT MORTALITY RATES
Maria Micaela Sviatschi, Universidad de San Andres-IADB
10:40 - 12:10
Conditional Cash Transfers and Intrahousehold
Room:
35 - 302
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS
Nikita Cespedes Reynaga, University of Rochester and Central Bank of Peru
INTRAHOUSEHOLD TIME ALLOCATION: AN IMPACT EVALUATION OF A
CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAM IN COLOMBIA
Mónica Ospina, Universidad EAFIT
PARENTAL EDUCATION, GENDER PREFERENCES AND CHILD NUTRITIONAL
STATUS: EVIDENCE FROM FOUR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Rafael Novella, University of Essex
10:40 - 12:10
34
Program Evaluation I
Labor Economics I
THE UNION EFFECT ON WAGES IN CHILE: A TWO-STAGE APPROACH USING
PANEL DATA
Nicolas Lillo, University of Chile
Co-authors: Oscar Landerretche, University of Chile; Esteban Puentes, Microdata
Center-Chile
Room:
27 - 102
THE COMPENSATION OF PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS IN FAMILY FIRMS
Francisco Gallego, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile
Co-author: Borja Larrain, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile
PUBLIC-PRIVATE WAGE GAP IN LATIN AMERICA (1999-2007): A MATCHING
APPROACH
Alejandra Mizala, University of Chile
Sebastian Gallegos and Pilar Romaguera, University of Chile
10:40 - 12:10
Fiscal Policy I
Room:
27 - 203
UNSTICKING THE FLYPAPER EFFECT USING DISTORTIONARY TAXATION
Guillermo Vuletin, Colby College
Co-author: Carlos Vegh, University of Maryland
TAX COMPLIANCE OF LTU TAXPAYERS: A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY APPROACH
Nicolas Oliva
Co-author: Gabriela Aparicio, The George Washington University
Microeconomics of Crime
Room:
35 - 303
CRIME AND CONSPICUOUS CONSUMPTION
Pascual Restrepo, Universidad de los Andes-Colombia
Daniel Mejia, Universidad de los Andes-Colombia
LABOR SUPPLY, CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Marcelo Santos, Getulio Vargas Foundation
VARIETIES OF ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND VIOLENT CONFLICT: A HYPOTHESIS
FOR COLOMBIA
Juan Vargas, Rosario University
Co-author: Leopoldo Fergusson, MIT
10:40 - 12:10
Financial Institutions I
CENTRAL BANKS AND BANKING SUPERVISION
Jorge Ponce, Central Bank of Urugay
Co-author: Pierre Boyer, Toulouse School of Economics (Gremaq) and Ehess
Room:
35 - 402
2
ON GRADUATION FROM DEFAULT, INFLATION AND BANKING CRISES: ELUSIVE
OR ILLUSION?
Rong Qian, University of Maryland
Co-authors: Carmen Reinhart, University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard
University
BANK COMPETITION AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INTEGRATION:
EVIDENCE USING A NEW INDEX
Gurnain Parischa, Bank of Canada
10:40 - 12:10
THE MACROECONOMICS EFFECTS OF A NEGATIVE INCOME TAX
Martin Lopez-Daneri, University of Iowa
35
10:40 - 12:10
International Finance
Room:
35 - 403
REGIONAL RESERVE POOLING ARRANGEMENTS
Ran Bi, IMF
Co-author: Suman Basu and Kannan Prakas; IMF
THE COST OF BORROWING, INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY, AND CAPITAL OPENNESS
Gabriel Martinez, Ave Maria University
THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF EMERGING MARKET DEBT
Sergio Schmukler, The World Bank
Co-author: Luis Opazo, Central Bank of Chile
10:40 - 12:10
Agricultural Economics
Room:
38 - 119
WEATHER-INDEXED INSURANCE IN MEXICO: PRODUCTIVITY AND RISK
MANAGEMENT
Alan Fuchs, UC Berkeley
Co-author: Hendrik Wolff, University of Washington
LAND INEQUALITY AND CONFLICT INTENSITY
Giacomo De Luca, University of Leuven and University of Namur
Co-author: Petros Sekeris, University of Namur
2
13:25 - 14:25
PLENARY LECTURE
Chairperson: Juan Jose Echavarria, Central Bank of Colombia, Chair, LACEA
2010
MATCHING, SORTING AND WAGES
Costas Meghir, University College London
Co-authors: Jeremy Lise, University College London and Jean-Marc Robin, Science
Po, Paris
14:35 - 16:05
14:35 - 16:05
Trade II
TRADE LIBERALIZATION, FIRM HETEROGENEITY, AND WAGES: NEW EVIDENCE
FROM MATCHED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA
Jennifer Poole, University of California, Santa Cruz
Co-authors: Pravin Krishna, Johns Hopkins University and NBER; and Mine Senses,
Johns Hopkins University
EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND FIRM HETEROGENEITY: EVIDENCE FROM CHILEAN
MANUFACTURING PLANTS
Ivan Duran, Universidad EAFIT
36
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
SPILLOVER EFFECTS FROM INWARD FDI ON THE EXPORTING DECISIONS OF
CHILEAN MANUFACTURING PLANTS
Michael Ryan, Western Michigan University
Co-author: Ivan Duran, Universidad EAFIT
Room:
35 - 101
14:35 - 16:05
Financial Crisis
Room:
35 - 102
BANK CREDIT DURING THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: A CROSS-COUNTRY
ARI AISEN, IMF
Co-author: Franken Michael, Central Bank of Chile
WHAT HINDERS INVESTMENT IN THE AFTERMATH OF FINANCIAL CRISES:
INSOLVENT FIRMS OR ILLIQUID BANKS?
Carolina Villegas Sanchez, University of Houston
Co-author: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, University of Houston and NBER; and Herman
Kamil, IMF
WHEN THE RIVERS RUN DRY: LIQUIDITY AND THE ROLE OF WHOLESALE FUNDS
IN THE TRANSMISSION OF THE U.S. SUBPRIME CRISIS
Claudio Raddatz, The World Bank
PRIVATIZATION AND NATIONALIZATION CYCLES
Norman Loayza, The World Bank
Co-authors: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University; Constantino Hevia, The World Bank
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
2
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CONTRACTING INSTITUTIONS
Alvaro Aguirre, University of Pennsilvania
LIPSET VERSUS FRIEDMAN: WHO IS RIGHT?
Daniel Morales, Catholic University Andrés Bello and Monteávila University
Co-authors: Hugo Faria, IESA and Hugo Montesinos Yufa, Simon Bolivar University
14:35 - 16:05
Education III
Room:
35 - 301
ICT ACCESS, USE AND OUTCOMES IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN PERU
Pablo Ibarraran, IADB and IZA
Co-Authors: German Bet, CEDLAS and Julian Cristia, IADB
LONGER SCHOOL DAYS, BETTER OUTCOMES?
Tiago Miguel Castanheira Correia Costa Pires, Northwestern University
Co-Authors: Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
14:35 - 16:05
The Effects of Social Programs in LA Countries
THE TRADE OFFS IN THE LABOR MARKET OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS:
THE CASE OF THE SEGURO POPULAR PROGRAM IN MEXICO
Raymundo M. Campos Vasquez , El Colegio de Mexico
Co-authors: Mariano Bosch, Alicante University
WELFARE PROGRAMS AND LABOR SUPPLY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:
EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM LATIN AMERICA
Laura Ripani, IADB
Maria Alzua and Guillermo Cruces, Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies
(Universidad Nacional de La Plata)
Room:
35 - 401
Economic Development I
14:35 - 16:05
37
SOCIAL SECURITY DISTORTIONS ONTO THE LABOR MARKET: ESTIMATES FOR
COLOMBIA
Jose Cuesta, The World Bank
Co-author: Mauricio Olivera, Fedesarrollo
14:35 - 16:05
Exchange Rate I
DO CREDIT MARKET IMPERFECTIONS EXPLAIN WHY EMERGING MARKETS
REACT SO SHARPLY TO SHOCKS?
Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, IMF
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
THE BACKWARD LOOKING COMPONENT IN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS
AND THE NOT-SO-PUZZLING FORWARD PREMIUM: THE CASE OF URUGUAY
Gonzalo Varela, University of Sussex
FEAR OF APPRECIATION
Eduardo Levy Yeyati, UTDT
Co-author: Federico Sturzenegger, Torcuato Di Tella University
14:35 - 16:05
Pensions II
DO PERSONALIZED PENSION PROJECTIONS AFFECT RETIREMENT DECISIONS?
EVIDENCE FOR CHILE
Jorge Miranda, Superintendence of Pensions of Chile
2
Room:
27 - 102
IN AN INDIVIDUALLY FUNDED PENSION SYSTEM: HOW CAN RISKS BE
MITIGATED?
Olga Fuentes, Superintendence of Pensions of Chile
Co-authors: Solange Berstein and Nicolas Torrealba, Superintendence of Pensions
of Chile
THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL SECURITY, DEMOGRAPHY AND TECHNOLOGY ON
RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Co-author: Marcelo Santos, Getulio Vargas Foundation
14:35 - 16:05
Prices
Room:
35 - 203
ESTIMATING STRATEGIC COMPLEMENTARITY IN A STATE-DEPENDENT PRICING
MODEL
Arnildo Correa, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Co-authors: Marco Bonomo, Getulio Vargas Foundation and Marcelo Medeiros,
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
WHAT DO WE MEAN WHEN WE MEAN RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY?
Laura D’amato, Central Bank of the Argentinian Republic
BACK TO BASICS: STICKY PRICES IN MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM
Nicolas De Roux, Universidad de los Andes
38
14:35 - 16:05
Program Evaluation II
A CONTRACT TO MAKE PUBLIC SCHOOLS ACCOUNTABLE EVIDENCE FROM
BOGOTA – COLOMBIA
Juan Bonilla, University of Maryland
Room:
35 - 302
DISTANCE TO SCHOOL AND COMPETITION IN THE CHILEAN SCHOOLING SYSTEM
Francisco Meneses, Ministry of Education of Chile
Co-authors: Romulo Chumacero, Central Bank of Chile; Ricardo Paredes, Pontifical
Catholic University of Chile; and Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
SOCIAL INTERACTION, SEGREGATION AND SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT IN
ARGENTINA
Maria Ana Lugo, The World Bank
14:35 - 16:05
Institutions and Firm’s Productivity
Room:
35 - 303
COMPETITION AND FIRM PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM FIRM-LEVEL DATA
Sandra Ospina, IMF
Co-author: Marc Schiffbauer, The World Bank
DISTRIBUTIVE AND REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONOPOLY POWER
Carlos M. Urzúa, GAP and Tecnológico de Monterrey
Room:
35 - 402
DEFAULT, INSTITUTIONS AND THE EXTERNAL COST OF CAPITAL
Eugenia Andreasen, European University Institute
2
FRAGMENTATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING: BRINGING IDEOLOGICAL
POLARIZATION INTO THE PICTURE
Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes
Co-author: Oskar Nupia, Universidad de los Andes
OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY WITH LIMITED
COMMITMENT
Sofia Bauducco, Central Bank of Chile
Co-author: Francesco Caprioli, Banca d’ Italia
14:35 - 16:05
Labor Economics II
BUSINESS INFORMALITY IN COLOMBIA: AN OBSTACLE FOR CREATIVE
DESTRUCTION
Carolina Ydrovo Echeverry, Econestudio
LABOR MOBILITY AND THE SPECIFICITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL
Guido Matias Cortes, University of British Columbia
Co-author: Giovanni Gallipoli, University of British Columbia
Room:
27 - 203
Fiscal Policy II
A COHORT-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF MINIMUM WAGE
LEVELS ON THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN THE INFORMAL SECTOR:
QUANTITATIVE AND SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS
Jhon J. Mora, Icesi University
Co-author: Juan Muro, Alcala University
14:35 - 16:05
39
14:35 - 16:05
International Economics
Room:
35 - 403
LAND CERTIFICATION AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM
MEXICO
Michele Valsecchi, University of Gothenburg
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
Marcelo Eduardo Silva, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco
HABITS, CATCHING UP WITH THE JONESES AND INTERNATIONAL RISK
SHARING
Jair Ojeda, Central Bank of Colombia
14:35 - 16:05
Taxation
Room:
38 - 118
ASSESSING THE INCIDENCE AND EFFICIENCY OF A PROMINENT PLACE-BASED
POLICY
Matias Busso, IADB
TAXES, PRISONS, AND CFOS: THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED PUNISHMENT ON
CORPORATE TAX COMPLIANCE IN ECUADOR
Gabriela Aparicio, The George Washington University
Co-author: Paul Carrillo and Shahe Emran, The George Washington
2
16:35 - 18:05
ROUND TABLE: POLICY AND MULTILATERALS
16:35 - 18:05
Commodities: Curse or Blessing?
This Session is sponsored by The World Bank
Chairperson: Augusto de la Torre, The World Bank
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
REPORT PRESENTATION: NATURAL RESOURCES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN: BEYOND BOOMS AND BUSTS?
John Nash, The World Bank
Discussant: Roberto Rigobón, MIT
16:35 - 18:05
TBA
This Session is sponsored by the International Monetary Fund
Chairperson: TBA
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
PERSPECTIVAS PARA LATINO AMÉRICA: RETOS DE LAS CONDICIONES
FINANCIERAS EXTERNAS FAVORABLES
Rodrigo Valdes, FMI
Other panelists: To be Confirmed
16:35 - 18:05
FINANCIAL REFORM
40
Chairperson: Jose Darío Uribe, Banco de la República
Panelists:
José Luis Escrivá, BBVA Group
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Center for Global Development
Jorge Londoño Saldarriaga, Bancolombia
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
18:15-19:15
PLENARY LECTURE
Albert Hirschman Lecture
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
“TBA”
Delivered by: Lant Pritchett, Harvard University
LACEA DINNER AND PARTY
Location: Plaza Mayor Medellín, Exposiciones y Convenciones
2
19:15-23:00
41
3
+
Parque Biblioteca España
Saturday November 13 2010
The Parque Biblioteca España was opened to the community by the
mayor of Medellin on March 24th, 2008, as part of the Municipal Libraries
Plan. This place has been conceived as a space that can promote different
social, cultural and educative programs focused on the improvement of the
quality of life for the people living nearby. It is also considered as a place
that allows tolerance, freedom and dignity of the human spirit. The park
was named Parque Biblioteca España due to the donation made by the
Spanish Government through its Agencia de Cooperación Internacional
(International Cooperation Agency).
+
8:15 - 8:45
REGISTRATION
8:45-10:15
INVITED SESSIONS
8:45-10:15
The Real Wealth of Nations: Presentation of the 2010 Human
Development Report
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
Chairperson: Daniel Mejia, Universidad de los Andes
PRESENTATION OF THE REPORT:
Francisco R. Rodriguez, UNDP
Comments:
Guillermo Perry, Fedesarrollo
Ricardo Hausmann, Center for International Development at Harvard University
Jose Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University
8:45-10:15
Early Childhood Programs in Developing Countries
Chairperson: Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes
COMMUNITY NURSERIES AND THE NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF POOR CHILDREN:
EVIDENCE FROM COLOMBIA
Vincenzo Di Maro, UCL and IADB
Co-authors: Marco Vera Hernandez, UCL and Orazio Attanasio, UCL and Institute for
Fiscal Studies (UK)
3
THE EFFECT OF PARTICIPATION IN PUBLIC CHILDCARE CENTERS: EVIDENCE
FROM CHILE
Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
Co-authors: Grace Noboa Hidalgo, Northwestern University
THE IMPACT OF A TECHNICAL TRAINING PROGRAM FOR CHILDCARE PROVIDERS
ON CHILDREN’S WELL-BEING
Raquel Bernal, Universidad de Los Andes
8:45 - 10:15
Presentation of the book: “La Reforma de los Sistemas de
Pensiones en Latinoamérica: Avances y Retos Pendiente”
This session is sponsored by Pensiones y Seguros América, BBVA
PRESENTATION:
David Tuesta, BBVA Research
COMMENTS:
Carmen Pagés, IADB
Angel Melguizo, OECD-Center of Development
Edward Whitehouse, The World Bank and Social Protection-OECD
What about: RePEc: What, how and who
Chairperson and panelist: Christian Zimmermann, University of Connecticut
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
Chairperson: Alicia García Herrero, BBVA Research
8:45 - 10:15
44
Room:
Fabricato
Auditorium
Room:
35 - 301
8:45 - 10:15
Corruption Control
Chairperson: Juan Dubra, Montevideo University
A SOLUTION TO THE TRAVELLERS’ DILEMMA, WITH AN APPLICATION TO
GETTING POLLUTERS TO TELL THE TRUTH
Juan Dubra, Montevideo University
Co-Author: Marcelo Caffera, Montevideo University
8:45 - 10:15
The Economics of Crime: Lessons for and from Latin America
Chairperson: Ernesto Schargrodsky, UTDT
Room:
Engineering
Building,
Auditorium,
5th Floor
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
INTRODUCTION
Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution
UNDERSTANDING HIGH CRIME RATES IN LATIN AMERICA: THE ROLE OF SOCIAL
AND POLICY FACTORS
Rodrigo R. Soares, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Co-author: Joana Naritomi, Harvard University
CAPITAL CRIMES: KIDNAPPINGS AND CORPORATE INVESTMENT IN COLOMBIA
Gustavo A. Suarez, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Co-author: Rony Pshisva, Protego Investment Associates, Mexico
THE QUALITY OF LIFE IN PRISONS: DO EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS REDUCE INPRISON CONFLICTS?
María Laura Alzúa, CEDLAS - Universidad de La Plata
Co-authors: Catherine Rodriguez, Center of Studies on Economic Development,
Universidad de los Andes; and Edgar Villa, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
10:40 - 12:10
10:40 - 12:10
Trade III
DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AROUND THE WORLD: 1962-2000
Roberto Alvarez, Central Bank of Chile and University of Chile
Co-author: Manuel Agosin, University of Chile
EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND TRADE FACILITATION REFORM: HARD AND SOFT
INFRASTRUCTURE
Portugal Perez Alberto, The World Bank
Co-author: John S. Wilson, The World Bank
Room:
35 - 101
3
THE COST OF AVOIDING CRIME: THE CASE OF BOGOTÁ
Carlos Medina, Banco de la República
Co-authors: Alejandro Gaviria, Universidad de los Andes; Leonardo Morales, Banco
de la República; and Jairo Núñez, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana.
EXPORT COSTS, QUALITY AND THE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF TRADE. A FIRMLEVEL ANALYSIS
Tomás Castagnino, Banco Central de la Republica Argentina
45
10:40 - 12:10
Trade IV
TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND WELFARE DISTRIBUTION IN DR-CAFTA
COUNTRIES
Samuel Freije, The World Bank
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
TRADE LIBERALIZATION, INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN BRAZILIAN STATES
Marta Castilho, Universidade Federal Fluminense
Co-authors: Marta Menéndez and Aude Sztulman, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDaDIAL
GLOBALIZATION, PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION AND WAGE INEQUALITY
Paulo Bastos, IADB
Co-author: Odd Rune Straume, University of Minho and University of Bergen
10:40 - 12:10
Room :
35 - 301
IMPACT OF EDUCATION SUBSIDIES ON TEENAGE CHILDBEARING: EVIDENCE
FROM BOGOTA, COLOMBIA
Darwin Cortés, Universidad del Rosario
Co-author: Juan Gallego, Catalina Latorre, Darío Maldonado and Mónica Ortegon,
Universidad del Rosario
3
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
Alex Solis, UC Berkeley
Co-author: Alejandro Arrieta, Indiana University
THE IMPACT OF STUDENT LOANS ON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: THE CASE OF
A PROGRAM AT THE PONTIFICAL CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF PERU
Luis Garcia, Pontifical Catholic University of Peru
10:40 - 12:10
Exchange Rate II
Room :
35 - 401
MEASURING MEDIA BIAS ON THE ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE IN COLOMBIA
Taborda Rodrigo, Universidad del Rosario
CURRENCY INDUCED CREDIT RISK IN A DOLLARIZED ECONOMY
Jorge Guillen, ESAN-Peru
Co-author: Alejandro Arrieta, Indiana University
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF EXCHANGE RATES IN LATIN AMERICA
Cesar M. Rodriguez, IADB
10:40 - 12:10
46
Education IV
Public Economics: Intergovernmental Relations
THE DUTCH DISEASE AND THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL FISCAL TRANSFERS ON
THE LOCATION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ACROSS A COUNTRY REGIONS: THEORY
AND EVIDENCE FOR ARGENTINA
Sebastian Freille, National University of Cordoba
Co-authors: Pedro Esteban Moncarz, Marcelo Capello and Alberto Figueras, National
University of Cordoba
Room:
35 - 102
TYING YOUR ENEMY’S HANDS IN CLOSE RACES: THE POLITICS OF FEDERAL
TRANSFERS IN BRAZIL
Fernanda Brollo, University of Alicante
FRIENDS FIRST: POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF TARGETING IN DECENTRALIZED
POVERTY ALLEVIATION PROGRAMS
Miguel Sarzosa, Oxford University
10:40 - 12:10
Poverty and Inequality II
(RE)COUNTING THE POOR IN PERU: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH
Juan F. Castro, Universidad del Pacífico
Jessica Baca and Juan P. Ocampo, Universidad del Pacífico
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
MEASURING INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY WITH IMPERFECT DATA: THE CASE
OF TURKEY
Francisco Ferreira, The World Bank
Co-authors: Meltem Aran, Oxford University and Jeremie Gignoux, Paris School of
Economics
Program Evaluation III
Room:
35 - 201
PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN BOLIVIA:
EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED NATURAL EXPERIMENT
Monica Yanez-Pagans, University of Illinois
THE IMPACT OF IMPROVING ACCESS TO JUSTICE ON CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Yuri Soares, IADB
Co-authors: Raul Andrade and Jimena Montenegro, Analysis Group for the
Development-Peru; and Maria Micaela Sviatschi, San Andres University and IADB
THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS AND EXPOSURE TO PROFESSIONALS ON
THE EDUCATIONAL ASPIRATIONS OF THE POOR
Carlos Chiapa, El Colegio de Mexico
Co-authors: Jose Luis Garrido, El Colegio de México and Silvia Prina, Case Western
Reserve University
10:40 - 12:10
Business Cycles II
Room:
35 - 203
3
THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR UNDER LEARNING AND THE ROLE OF
MONETARY POLICY
Rodrigo Caputo, Central Bank of Chile
Co-authors: Juan Pablo Medina and Claudia Soto, Central Bank of Chile
FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY INTERACTION: A SIMULATION BASED ANALYSIS
OF A TWO-COUNTRY NEW KEYNESIAN DSGE MODEL WITH HETEROGENEOUS
HOUSEHOLDS
Fabia Carvalho, Central Bank of Brazil
Co-author: Marcos Valli, Central Bank of Brazil
10:40 - 12:10
POVERTY AND INEQUALITY UNDER LATIN AMERICA’S NEW LEFT REGIMES
Darryl McLeod, Fordham University
Co-author: Nora Lustig, Tulane University
47
LABOR FORCE HETEROGENEITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RELATION BETWEEN
AGGREGATE VOLATILITY AND GOVERNMENT SIZE
Alexandre Janiak, University of Chile
Co-author: Paulo Santos Monteiro, University of Warwick
10:40 - 12:10
Firm’s Productivity
INNOVATION, R&D INVESTMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY IN COLOMBIAN FIRMS
Maria Arbelaez, Fedesarrollo
Co-author: Monica Parra Torrado, Fedesarrollo
Room:
Fabricato
Auditorium
WAGE ADJUSTMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM MATCHED
EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA
Julian Messina, The World Bank
Co-author: Mikael Carlsson, Research Department-Sveriges Riksbank
PRODUCTIVITY, INFORMALITY AND FIRM SIZE: MEXICO, 1998-2008
Santiago Levy, IADB
Co-author: Maria Victoria Fazio, IADB
10:40 - 12:10
3
Urban and Regional Economics
LAND REGULATION IN THE URBAN AGGLOMERATES OF ARGENTINA AND ITS
RELATIONSHIP WITH HOUSEHOLDS’ RESIDENTIAL TENURE CONDITION
Cynthia Goytia, Torcuato Di Tella University
Co-author: Cecilia Mendoza and Ricardo Pasquini; Torcuato Di Tella University
THE AGRARIAN RENTIER POLITICAL ECONOMY: LAND CONCENTRATION AND
FOOD INSECURITY IN COLOMBIA
Richani Nazih, Kean University
A PROPOSAL TO MEASURE MUNICIPAL COMPETITIVENESS IN MEXICO
Sylvia Beatriz Guillermo Peón, Benemerita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla
10:40 - 12:10
Labor Economics III
ASSESSING THE LINK BETWEEN ADOLESCENT FERTILITY AND URBAN CRIME
Carlos Medina, Central Bank of Colombia
Co-author: Jorge Andrés Tamayo, Central Bank of Colombia
DISENTANGLING THE ROLE OF PRE-LABOR MARKET SKILLS AND FAMILY
BACKGROUND WHEN EXPLAINING INEQUALITY
Julio Guzman, Alfonso Ibañez University
Co-author: Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University
CULTURE AND TEENAGE CHILDBEARING IN PERU
Martin Valdivia, Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo
48
Room:
38 - 119
Room:
27 - 203
10:40 - 12:10
Econometrics II
Room:
35 - 303
THE ECONOMETRICS OF AUDITS DATA WITH AN APPLICATION TO
DETERMINANTS OF CORRUPTION
Guilherme Lichand, The World Bank
Co-authors: Marcos Lopes, FGV-SP-Brazil; Marcelo Medeiros, Pontifical Catholic
University - Rio de Janeiro
NONEXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATION OF HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT EFFECTS
Sebastian Calonico, University of Michigan
THREE-PART TARIFFS AND CONSUMER WELFARE OF THE LOCAL FIXED
TELEPHONE SERVICE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MEDELLIN
Jorge Hugo Barrientos, Universidad de Antioquia
Co-author: David Tobón Orozco, Universidad de Antioquia
Room:
35 - 402
TRANSFER OF VALUES FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD: THE CASE OF AIR
POLLUTION
Carlos Adrián Saldarriaga Isaza, Universidad Nacional de Colombia (Medellín)
Co-author: Edison Vásquez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia (Medellín)
3
THE BLESSING OF NATURAL RESOURCES: EVIDENCE FROM A PERUVIAN GOLD
MINE
Fernando Aragon, London School of Economics
Co-author: Juan Pablo Rud, Royal Holloway and University of London
10:40 - 12:10
Microeconomics II
Room:
35 - 403
INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION AND NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Antoine Loeper, Northwestern University
THE ORIGINS OF POLITICAL POWER: THE ROLE OF WEALTH
Martin Rossi, Universidad de San Andres, Argentina
13:25 - 14:25
PLENARY LECTURE
Chairperson: Alejandro Gaviria, Universidad de los Andes, Co-Chair, LACEA 2010
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
ENDOGENOUS CHECKS AND BALANCES
James Robinson, Harvard University
14:35 - 16:05
INVITED SESSIONS
14:35 - 16:05
Human Opportunity Index for children: Methodology and
Applications for Latin America
Chairperson: Marcelo Giugale, Country Manager Colombia and Mexico, World Bank
HUMAN OPPORTUNITY INDEX: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES AND PROPERTIES
Ricardo Paes de Barros, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada
Natural Resource Economics
Engineering
Building,
Auditorium,
5th Floor
10:40 - 12:10
49
OPPORTUNITIES FOR COLOMBIAN CHILDREN: TRENDS AND REGIONAL
DIFFERENCES, 1997-2008
Carlos E. Velez, The World Bank
HUMAN OPPORTUNITY INDEX IN PERU
Javier Escoval, Grupo de Analisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)
14:35 - 16:05
Firm Performance and International Trade
Chairperson: Maurice Kugler, The World Bank
Room:
35 - 301
PERSISTENCE IN EXPORT SUCCESS
Facundo Albornoz, University of Birmingham
Co-author: Juan Carlos Hallak, San Andres University
DOES TRADE STIMULATE INNOVATION? EVIDENCE FROM FIRM-PRODUCT DATA
Caroline Paunov, OECD
Co-author: Ana Fernandes, The World Bank
PRICES, PLANT SIZE, AND PRODUCT QUALITY
Maurice Kugler, The World Bank
Co-author: Eric Verhoogen, Columbia University
3
14:35 - 16:05
The Economics of State Capacity
Chairperson: Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution
TAXATION AND MORE REPRESENTATION? ON FISCAL POLICY, SOCIAL MOBILITY
AND DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA
Christian Daude and Ángel Melguizo, OECD
AGGREGATE VOLATILITY, STATE CAPACITY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Cesar Calderón, The World Bank and Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Torcuato Di Tella
University
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN STATE CAPACITY AND CONFLICT: A PANEL DATA
APPROACH
Mauricio Cárdenas, Brookings Institution and Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los
Andes
14:35 - 16:05
Fiscal Schemes for Inclusive Development: A Microsimulation
Models Approach
Chairperson: Carlos M. Urzúa, EGAP-ITESM, Mexico City Campus
OVERVIEW AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
Luis F. Lopez Calva, Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean and Carlos
M. Urzua, EGAP-ITESM, Mexico City Campus
METHODOLOGY IMPLEMENTED
Amedeo Spadaro, Paris School of Economics and Carlos M. Urzua, EGAP-ITESM,
Mexico City Campus
50
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
COUNTRY CASES AND PARTICIPANTS:
Ricardo Nogueira, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Brazil
Osvaldo Larrañaga, UNDP, Chile
Room:
Fabricato
Auditorium
Wilson Romero, Universidad Rafael Landivar, Guatemala
Carlos M. Urzua, EGAP-ITESM, Mexico City Campus
Marisa Bucheli, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
GENERAL COMMENTS AND DISCUSSION:
Samuel Freije. The World Bank
Guillermo Cruces, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina
14:35 - 16:05
Financial Stability Considerations in Monetary Frameworks
This session is sponsored by the Bank for International
Settlements
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
Chairperson: Ramon Moreno, Head of Economics for Latin America and the
Caribbean, BIS
MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: CONSIDERATIONS FOR
EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIES
Alberto Torres, Research Director, Central Bank of Mexico
FINANCIAL VOLATILITY AND INFLATION TARGETING
Roberto Chang, Professor, Department of Economics-Rutgers University
“TBA”
Luis Felipe Cespedes, Economics Research Manager, Central Bank of Chile
16:35 - 18:05
Trade V
Room:
35 - 101
PRODUCT STANDARDS HARMONIZATION AND FIRM HETEROGENEITY IN
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Jose-Daniel Reyes, Georgetown University
THE DR-CAFTA AND THE EXTENSIVE MARGIN: A FIRM-LEVEL ANALYSIS
Maurizio Bussolo, The World Bank
Co-authors: Ana Cristina Molina, The World Bank and Graduade Institute (Geneva);
and Leonardo Iacovone, The World Bank
GRAVITY AND EXTENDED GRAVITY: ESTIMATING A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF
EXPORT ENTRY
Andres Zahler, CID and Harvard University
Co-author: Eduardo Morales and Gloria Sheu, Harvard University
16:35 - 18:05
Trade VI
TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND WORKER DISPLACEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM
TRADE REFORMS IN COLOMBIA
Adriana Kugler, Georgetown University
TRADE ADJUSTMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY IN LARGE CRISES
Brent Neiman, University of Chicago
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 103
16:35 - 18:05
3
RESERVE REQUIREMENTS IN A LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINED ENVIRONMENT
Carlos Montoro, Senior Economist, Bank for International Settlements
51
INFORMAL JOBS AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN ARGENTINA
Pablo Acosta, The World Bank
Co-author: Gabriel Montes Rojas, Universidad del Rosario
16:35 - 18:05
Economic Development II
Room:
35 - 201
SETTLEMENT COLONIES ACROSS PLANTATION FIELDS: EVIDENCE ON THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMAN CAPITAL AND LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT
Rudi Rocha, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Co-author: Claudio Ferraz and Rodrigo Soares, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio
de Janeiro
EYE DISEASE AND DEVELOPMENT
Pablo Selaya, University of Copenhagen
Co-authors: Thomas Barnebeck Andersen and Carl-Johan Dalgaard, University of
Copenhagen
16:35 - 18:05
Financial Institutions II
FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND FOREIGN BANKS IN LATIN AMERICA: HOW DO
THEY IMPACT THE TRANSMISSION OF EXTERNAL FINANCIAL SHOCKS?
Alejandro Izquierdo, IADB
Co-author: Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Center for Global Development
3
Room:
Auditorium
38 - 125
DEPOSIT-LOAN SYNERGIES AS A SOURCE OF MARKET POWER IN THE MEXICAN
BANKING INDUSTRY
Mario Villalpando, Banco de México
IS THERE A CROSS-BORDER BANK LENDING CHANNEL? EVIDENCE FROM U.S.
BANKS’ INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE
Ricardo Correa, Federal Reserve Board
Co-author: Charles Murry, University of Virginia
16:35 - 18:05
Education V
Room:
35 - 301
COMPETITION, INCENTIVES, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENTS IN
PRIVATE SCHOOL MARKETS
Matias Tapia, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile
TESTING THE QUANTITY-QUALITY MODEL IN MEXICO
Bansi Malde, Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London
Co-author: Emla Fitzsimons, IFS
OUTPUT-BASED MANAGEMENT AND SCHOOL EFFICIENCY: EVIDENCE FROM
SÃO PAULO STATE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Priscilla Tavares, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie
Co-author: Rafael de Sousa Camelo, Fundação Itaú Social
52
16:35 - 18:05
Conflict and Development I
EFFECTIVENESS OF THE CONTROL OF VIOLENCE AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT IN COLOMBIA: A DYNAMIC DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS
Alexander Cotte Poveda, University of Göttingen and Universidad de La Salle
Room:
35 - 203
JUVENIL DELINQUENCY: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OR SOCIAL POLICIES?
Monica Concha Amin, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
POVERTY TRAPS, ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND DELINQUENT INCENTIVES
Edgar Villa, Pontifical Javeriana University
Co-author: Andres Salazar, DNP-Colombia
16:35 - 18:05
Program Evaluation IV
Room:
35 - 401
IMPACT OF A TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER PROGRAM ON SMALL FARMERS: THE
CASE OF ECUADOR’S PROMSA
Gonzalo Vásquez, IADB
Co-authors: Alessandro Maffioli, IADB and Martin Valdivia, GRADE
IMPACT EVALUATION OF SENA’S VOCATIONAL TRAINING PROGRAM
Monica Parra Torrado, Fedesarrollo
Topics in Inflation
Room:
27 - 102
NOMINAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF
INFLATION SURPRISES
Tiago Berriel, FGV-Rio EPGE
ARGENTINA: INFLATION AND LIES
Alberto Cavallo, MIT
PRICE SETTING IN RETAILING: THE CASE OF URUGUAY
Leandro Zipitría, Universidad de Montevideo and Universidad de San Andrés
Co-author: Fernando Borraz, Central Bank of Uruguay
16:35 - 18:05
Conflict and Development II
THE IMPACT OF ARMED CONFLICT ON EARLY HEALTH AND NUTRITION IN PERU
Alan Sanchez, Oxford University
BARGAINING UNDER POLARIZATION: THE CASE OF COLOMBIAN ARMED
CONFLICT
David Tobón, Universidad de Antioquia
Co-authors: Sigifredo Laengle and Gino Loyola, University of Chile
Room:
35 - 302
3
CIVIL WAR AND FOREIGN INFLUENCE
Facundo Albornoz, University of Birmingham
Co-author: Esther Hauk, IAE-CSIC
16:35 - 18:05
ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF PLACING TOP UNIVERSITY GRADUATES IN
VULNERABLE SCHOOLS IN CHILE
Ana Santiago, IADB
Co-authors: Mariana Alfonso and Marina Bassi, IADB
53
16:35 - 18:05
Collective Decision-Making
Room:
35 - 303
THE POLITICAL RESOURCE CURSE
Tommaso Nanncini, Bocconi University
Co-authors: Fernanda Brollo, Roberto Perotti and Guido Tabellini; Bocconi University
HOW DO THE PERMISSION AND DECISION TO RUN FOR REELECTION AFFECT
FISCAL POLICY? A NEW TEST OF THE OPPORTUNISTIC FISCAL CYCLE APPLIED
TO LOCAL ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL
Fabio Klein, EAESP/FGV-Brazil
LAND REFORM AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT: VOTING INCENTIVES IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE
Felipe Gonzalez, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile
16:35 - 18:05
Labor Economics IV
Room:
27 - 203
QUANTILE REGRESSION WITH SAMPLE SELECTION: ESTIMATING WOMEN’S
RETURN TO EDUCATION AND RACIAL WAGE DIFFERENTIAL IN BRAZIL
Danilo Coelho, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
Co-author: Róbert Veszteg, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
3
ETHNIC EARNINGS GAP IN COLOMBIA
Ximena Peña, Universidad de los Andes-Colombia
Co-author: Daniel Wills, Universidad de los Andes-Colombia
NOT YET MARRIED BUT ALREADY PAYING THE PRICE? THE IMPACT OF
GRANTING ALIMONY RIGHTS TO COHABITING PARTNERS
Jeanne Lafortune, University of Maryland
16:35 - 18:05
Room:
35 - 402
PREDATORY TRADING AND CREDIT FREEZE
Jennifer Lao, University of Chicago
CREDIT CONTRACTION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM CHILEAN
EXPORTERS
Javier Turen, University of Chile
Co-author: Ari Aisen, IMF
POP GOES THE DOT-COM BUBBLE: UNDERSTANDING THE FINANCING OF
SURVIVING FIRMS
Jihad Dagher, IMF
Co-author: Nathaniel Arnold, University of Southern California
16:35 - 18:05
54
Credit Access: Determinants and Consequences
Microeconomics III
OPTIMAL INFORMATIONAL INTEREST RATE RULE
Marta Areosa, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Co-authors: Waldyr Areosa and Vinicius Carrasco, Pontifical Catholic University of
Rio de Janeiro
Room:
35-403
GRADUALISM AND COMMITMENT: WHEN TO STOP LEARNING?
Jorge Fernandez, Georgetown University
18:15 - 19:15
PLENARY LECTURE
Carlos Diaz-Alejandro Lecture
Room:
Fundadores
Auditorium
Chairperson: Ricardo Hausmann, Center for International Development at
Harvard University, President, LACEA
“TBA”
Hugo A. Hopenhayn, UCLA
CLOSING RECEPTION
Location: Universidad EAFIT
3
19:15 - 20:30
55
56
XI. Index
Adriana Kugler..........................................................................51
Adriana Lleras-Muney ............................................................... 8
Alan Fuchs................................................................................ 36
Alan Sanchez............................................................................ 53
Alberto Cavallo.................................................................... 21-53
Alberto Diaz-Cayeros................................................................ 25
Alberto Figueras....................................................................... 46
Antoine Loeper......................................................................... 49
Ari Aisen...............................................................................37-54
Arnildo Correa.......................................................................... 38
Arturo Galindo.................................................................. 7-21-25
Aude Sztulman.......................................................................... 46
Augusto de la Torre............................................... 7-22-28-32-40
Bansi Malde.............................................................................. 52
Alberto Naranjo ............................................................ 3-6-7-28
Alberto Torres ...................................................................... 8-51
Alberto Uribe Correa.................................................................. 3
Alejandra Mizala....................................................................... 35
Alejandro Arrieta....................................................................... 46
Alejandro Gaviria..................................................... 6-7-45-46-49
Alejandro Hoyos........................................................................ 33
Alejandro Izquierdo............................................................. 21-52
Alessandro Maffioli .............................................................23-53
Alessandro Rebucci.................................................................. 31
Alex Solis................................................................................... 46
Alexander Cotte Poveda............................................................ 52
Alexander Elbittar..................................................................... 27
Alexander Tobón .................................................................... 6-8
Alexandre Janiak...................................................................... 48
Alicia Bárcena............................................................................. 7
Alicia García Herrero .........................................................31-44
Alvaro Aguirre........................................................................... 37
Alvaro Forteza........................................................................... 23
Amedeo Spadaro....................................................................... 50
Ana Corbacho............................................................................ 24
Ana Cristina Molina.................................................................. 51
Ana Fernandes.......................................................................... 50
Ana María Ibáñez........................................................................ 8
Ana Santiago............................................................................. 53
Ana Sofía Leon Lince ............................................................... 22
André Portela Souza................................................................. 33
Andrea Vigorito......................................................................... 30
Andreas Fagereng..................................................................... 24
Andrei Zlate............................................................................... 33
Andrés Alvarez............................................................................ 7
Andres Fernandez..................................................................... 23
Andrés Neumeyer ........................................................... 8-21-22
Andrés Salazar.......................................................................... 53
Andrés Velasco . ..................................................................20-27
Andrés Zahler........................................................................... 51
Andrew Powell ...................................................................28-32
Angel Melguizo.............................................................. 26-44-50
Bernardo Cruz Morais.............................................................. 23
Borja Larrain............................................................................. 35
Brent Neiman........................................................................... 51
Burcu Duygan-Bump................................................................ 34
Carl-Johan Dalgaard................................................................ 52
Carlos Adrian Saldarriaga Isaza............................................... 49
Carlos Caceres.......................................................................... 24
Carlos Carvalho........................................................................ 24
Carlos Chiapa............................................................................ 47
Carlos Corseuil......................................................................... 25
Carlos E. Velez ..................................................................... 8-50
Carlos Fernando Arbeláez Ortiz................................................. 6
Carlos M. Urzúa............................................................. 39-50-51
Carlos Medina...............................................................6-7-45-48
Carlos Montoro......................................................................... 51
Carlos Vegh.................................................................... 21-32-35
Carmen Pages ...........................................................8-27-31-44
Carmen Reinhart...................................................................... 35
Carolina Mejia Mantilla............................................................. 24
Carolina Villegas Sanchez........................................................ 37
Carolina Ydrovo Echeverry........................................................ 39
Caroline Paunov........................................................................ 50
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes...................................................... 33
Catalina Gómez Irurita................................................................ 6
Catalina Gómez Toro................................................................... 6
Catalina Latorre........................................................................ 46
Catherine Rodriguez................................................................. 45
Cecilia Machado........................................................................ 33
Cecilia Mendoza........................................................................ 48
Cesar Calderon......................................................................... 50
Cesar M. Rodriguez.................................................................. 46
Charles Murry........................................................................... 52
Chris Woodruff.......................................................................... 21
Christian Daude........................................................................ 50
Christian Zimmermann............................................................ 44
Clarissa Teixeira....................................................................... 30
Cimar Azeredo Pereira............................................................. 31
Claudia Martinez A.................................................................... 33
Erica M. Field.............................................................................. 7
Ernesto Schargrodsky...............................................8- 31-32-45
Esteban Puentes....................................................................... 34
Esther Hauk.............................................................................. 53
Ethan Ilzetzki ........................................................................... 21
Eugenia Andreasen................................................................... 39
Eva Olimpia Arceo-Gomez........................................................ 22
Fabia Carvalho.......................................................................... 47
Fabio Klein................................................................................ 54
Fabio Soares............................................................................. 30
Facundo Albornoz................................................................50-53
Federico Echenique.................................................................... 7
Federico Sturzenegger............................................................. 38
Felipe Gonzalez......................................................................... 54
Fernanda Brollo...................................................................47-54
Danilo Coelho............................................................................ 54
Dante Contreras........................................................................ 22
Dario Maldonado....................................................................... 46
Darryl McLeod.......................................................................... 47
Darwin Cortés........................................................................... 46
David Bravo............................................................................... 32
David Tobón............................................................................... 53
David Tobon Orozco................................................................... 49
David Tuesta.............................................................................. 44
Dean Yang............................................................................22-33
Demian Tupac Panigo............................................................... 26
Denis Medvedev........................................................................ 20
Diana Mejía Anzola..................................................................... 6
Diego Aycinena.......................................................................... 33
Diego Battiston......................................................................... 23
Domingo Claps.......................................................................... 31
E. Miguel .................................................................................. 30
Edgar Villa............................................................................45-53
Edison Vasquez......................................................................... 49
Eduardo E. Freire Delgado........................................................ 31
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias........................................23-28-31-38
Eduardo Levy-Yeyati . ............................................................... 50
Eduardo Lora.............................................................................. 8
Eduardo Morales....................................................................... 51
Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez............................................................... 23
Eduardo Rodriguez-Oreggia..................................................... 33
Edward Whitehouse.................................................................. 44
Elydia Silva................................................................................ 30
Emilio Blanco............................................................................ 24
Emily Conover........................................................................... 21
Emla Fitzsimons....................................................................... 52
Emmanuel Skoufias.................................................................... 8
Emmanuelle Martinez.............................................................. 26
Enes Sunel................................................................................ 24
Enrique Alberola....................................................................... 28
Enrique Mendoza...................................................................... 21
Eric Leeper............................................................................... 21
Eric Verhoogen.......................................................................... 50
Fernanda Estevan Goncalves.................................................... 22
Fernando Alvarez...................................................................... 22
Fernando Aragon...................................................................... 49
Fernando Borraz....................................................................... 53
Fernando Brollo........................................................................ 45
Flavio Cunha............................................................................... 7
Francesca Castellani................................................................ 25
Francesco Bogliacino................................................................. 7
Francesco Drago....................................................................... 31
Franceso Caprioli...................................................................... 39
Francisco Alpizar...................................................................... 27
Francisco Ferreira........................................................... 7-27-47
Francisco Gallego............................................................ 7-32-35
Francisco Haimovich................................................................. 30
Francisco Meneses................................................................... 39
Francisco R. Rodriguez............................................................. 44
Franken Michael....................................................................... 36
Frederico Finan......................................................................... 25
Gabriel Madeira........................................................................ 26
Gabriel Martinez....................................................................... 36
Gabriel Montes Rojas................................................................ 52
Gabriela Aparicio.................................................................35-40
Gaston Gelos............................................................................. 23
Gerardo Esquivel....................................................................... 20
Germán Bet..........................................................................30-37
Giacomo De Luca...................................................................... 36
Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferrati......................................................... 32
Gino Loyola................................................................................ 53
Giovanni Gallipoli...................................................................... 39
Gloria Sheu............................................................................... 51
Gonzalo Varela.......................................................................... 38
Gonzalo Vasquez....................................................................... 53
Grace Noboa Hidalgo................................................................ 44
Graciela Kaminsky...................................................................... 8
Grant Miller................................................................................. 8
Gregory Veramendi................................................................... 34
Guido Matias Cortes................................................................. 39
Guido Tabellini.......................................................................... 54
Claudia Ruiz.............................................................................. 24
Claudia Sanhueza..................................................................... 32
Claudia Soto.............................................................................. 47
Claudio Ferraz............................................................... 26-50-52
Claudio Raddatz...................................................................31-37
Constantino Hevia..................................................................... 37
Consuelo Páez Rodríguez........................................................... 6
Costas Meghir......................................................................21-36
Craig McIntosh.......................................................................... 25
Cynthia Goytia........................................................................... 48
Dagmar Hertova........................................................................ 23
Daniel Mejia.........................................................................35-44
Daniel Morales.......................................................................... 37
Daniel Navia.............................................................................. 31
Daniel Wills............................................................................... 54
57
58
Guilherme Hirata...................................................................... 30
Guilherme Lichand .............................................................26-49
Guillermo Cruces................................................ 20-23-26-37-51
Guillermo Perry............................................................... 8-31-44
Guillermo Vuletin...................................................................... 35
Gurnain Parischa...................................................................... 35
Gustavo A. Suarez................................................................. 8-45
Gustavo Torrens........................................................................ 32
Gwenn Parent........................................................................... 25
Hendrick Wolff.......................................................................... 36
Herman Kamil........................................................................... 37
Hernando Vargas Herrea ....................................................... 6-8
Hugo A. Hopenhayn.............................................................27-55
Hugo Faria................................................................................. 37
Hugo López Castaño............................................................... 6-8
Jorge Guillen............................................................................. 46
Jorge Hugo Barrientos ................................................6-7-47-49
Jorge Londoño Saldarriaga...................................................... 40
Jorge Miranda .......................................................................... 38
Jorge Miranda Pinto................................................................. 20
Jorge Ponce.............................................................................. 35
Jose Antonio Ocampo........................................................... 8-44
Jose Cuesta............................................................................... 38
Jose Dario Uribe...........................................................6-8-27-28
José de Gregorio......................................................................... 7
Jose Luis Garrido...................................................................... 47
Jose Luis Esrcrivá..................................................................... 40
Jose-Daniel Reyes.................................................................... 51
Juan Bonilla.............................................................................. 38
Juan Camilo Cardenas . .............................................7-25-26-27
Hugo Montesinos Yufa.............................................................. 37
Hugo Ñopo....................................................................... 8-30-33
Ianina Rossi............................................................................... 23
Ilyana Kuziemko........................................................................ 32
Ivan Duran................................................................................. 36
Jaime Saavedra.................................................................... 8-20
Jair Ojeda.................................................................................. 40
Jairo Nuñez............................................................................... 45
James A. Robinson................................................................... 20
James Heckman....................................................................... 34
James Robinson....................................................................... 49
James Walsh............................................................................. 23
Javier Escoval........................................................................... 50
Javier Turen.............................................................................. 54
Jean Marc Robin..................................................................21-36
Jeanne Lafortune...................................................................... 54
Jeff Dayton................................................................................ 25
Jennifer Lao.............................................................................. 54
Jennifer Poole........................................................................... 36
Jere Behrman........................................................................... 30
Jeremie Gignoux....................................................................... 47
Jeremy Lise . ............................................................................ 36
Jessica Baca............................................................................. 47
Jesús Otero................................................................................. 8
Jhon J. Mora............................................................................. 39
Jihad Dagher............................................................................. 54
Jimena Montenegro.................................................................. 47
Joana Costa............................................................................... 30
Joana Naritomi......................................................................... 45
Joao Manoel Pinho de Mello..................................................... 26
Joaquín Vial............................................................................... 31
John Nash................................................................................. 40
John S. Wilson.......................................................................... 45
John Scott................................................................................. 20
Jon Strand................................................................................. 33
Jon Wha Lee.............................................................................. 31
Jorge Andres Tamayo............................................................... 48
Jorge Fernandez....................................................................... 55
Juan Carlos Duque..................................................................... 7
Juan Carlos Hallak................................................................... 50
Juan De Laiglesia...................................................................... 26
Juan Dubra............................................................................ 7-45
Juan Esteban Carranza.............................................................. 7
Juan F. Castro........................................................................... 47
Juan Gallego............................................................................. 46
Juan Jose Echavarría ..................................................6-7-20-36
Juan Luis Mejia Arango.............................................................. 6
Juan Muro................................................................................. 39
Juan P. Ocampo........................................................................ 47
Juan Pablo Medina..............................................................34-47
Juan Pablo Rud......................................................................... 49
Juan Sebastián Betancur........................................................... 6
Juan Sebastian Cárdenas Salas................................................. 6
Juan Vargas............................................................................... 35
Julian Cristia........................................................................33-37
Julian Messina.......................................................................... 48
Julien Bengui............................................................................ 24
Julio Guzman............................................................................ 48
Kannan Prakas......................................................................... 36
Kenneth Rogoff......................................................................... 35
Kevin Cowan.............................................................................. 31
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel.................................................. 21-28-44
Lant Pritchett............................................................................ 40
Laura D’amato.....................................................................24-38
Laura Ripani . ........................................................................... 37
Laura Zoratto............................................................................ 32
Laurence Ball............................................................................ 21
Leandro Medina........................................................................ 24
Leandro Zipitría........................................................................ 53
Leonardo Gasparini ............................................................20-30
Leonardo Iacovone.................................................................... 51
Leonardo Morales..................................................................... 45
Leonardo Villar..................................................................... 8-22
Leopoldo Fergusson............................................................35-40
Liliana Rojas Suarez............................................................22-52
Lina María Granados.................................................................. 6
Martin Valdivia............................................................8-30-48-53
Masa Kawai............................................................................... 31
Matias Busso............................................................................. 40
Matias Tapia.............................................................................. 52
Maurice Kugler..................................................................... 8-50
Mauricio Alviar............................................................................ 7
Mauricio Cardenas......................................................7-28-45-50
Mauricio Olivera........................................................................ 38
Maurizio Bussolo.................................................................20-51
Mauro Rodriguez...................................................................... 26
Melanie Triana Salazar............................................................... 6
Meltem Aran............................................................................. 47
Mery Ferrando ......................................................................... 30
Michael Ryan............................................................................. 36
Michele Valsecchi..................................................................... 39
Marcelo Caffera........................................................................ 45
Marcelo Capello........................................................................ 44
Marcelo Eduardo Silva.............................................................. 46
Marcelo Giugale........................................................................ 49
Marcelo Medeiros................................................................38-49
Marcelo Olarreaga.................................................................... 32
Marcelo Santos....................................................................35-38
Marco Bonomo.....................................................................24-38
Marco Manacorda..................................................................... 30
Marco Vera Hernandez............................................................. 44
Marcos Lopes............................................................................ 49
Marcos Rangel.......................................................................... 26
Marcos Valli............................................................................... 47
Margarita Rubio........................................................................ 23
Maria A. Palacio.......................................................................... 6
Maria Ana Lugo......................................................................... 39
Maria Arbelaez.......................................................................... 48
Maria Carolina Leme................................................................ 33
Maria Emma Santos................................................................. 24
María José Roa......................................................................... 27
María Laura Alzúa.......................................................... 30-37-45
Maria Lorena Garegnani........................................................... 24
Maria Micaela Sviatschi.......................................................34-47
Maria Valentina Konow Vial...................................................... 32
Maria Victoria Fazio.................................................................. 48
Mariana Alfonso........................................................................ 53
Mariano Bosch.......................................................................... 37
Marina Bassi............................................................................. 53
Mario Villalpando...................................................................... 52
Marisa Bucheli.......................................................................... 51
Marta Areosa............................................................................ 54
Marta Castilho.......................................................................... 46
Marta Menéndez....................................................................... 46
Martin Beraja............................................................................ 22
Martin Gonzalez Rozada........................................................... 22
Martin Grandes..................................................................... 7-26
Martin Lopez-Daneri................................................................ 35
Martin Rossi.............................................................................. 49
Miguel Jaramillo....................................................................... 20
Miguel Sarzosa......................................................................... 47
Miguel Urquiola.......................................................................... 8
Mikael Carlsson........................................................................ 48
Min Ouyang............................................................................... 21
Mine Senses.............................................................................. 36
Monica Concha Amin................................................................ 53
Monica Ortegon......................................................................... 46
Mónica Ospina....................................................................... 8-34
Monica Parra Torrado .........................................................48-53
Monica Yanez-Pagans............................................................... 47
Monserrat Bustelo.................................................................... 22
Nathalia Franco Pérez................................................................ 6
Nathaniel Arnold....................................................................... 54
Nicolas Botan............................................................................ 33
Nicolas De Roux........................................................................ 38
Nicolas Lillo.............................................................................. 34
Nicolas Oliva............................................................................. 35
Nicolas Robledo S. ..................................................................... 6
Nicolas Torrealba...................................................................... 38
Nikita Cespedes Reynaga......................................................... 34
Nora Lustig..........................................................................20-47
Nora Traum............................................................................... 21
Norbert Gaillard........................................................................ 26
Norbert Schady......................................................................... 33
Norman Loayza....................................................................31-37
Odd Rune Straume................................................................... 46
Olga Fuentes............................................................................. 38
Orazio Attanasio.................................................................... 7-44
Orlando Sotomayor................................................................... 25
Oscar Landerretche.................................................................. 34
Oskar Nupia.............................................................................. 39
Osvaldo Larrañaga.................................................................... 50
Pablo Acosta............................................................................. 52
Pablo Federico.......................................................................... 34
Pablo Ibarraran....................................................................23-37
Pablo Sanguinetti.................................................................. 8-22
Pablo Selaya.............................................................................. 52
Loreto Reyes............................................................................. 34
Luis Alejandro Cardenas Franco................................................ 6
Luis E Arango............................................................................ 30
Luis Felipe Cespedes............................................................ 7-51
Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva.................................. 7-20-23-26-30-50
Luis Garcia................................................................................ 46
Luis Opazo................................................................................. 36
Luiz A. Pereira da Silva............................................................. 27
Manuel Agosin.......................................................................... 45
Marc Flandreau......................................................................... 26
Marc Hofstetter....................................................................21-31
Marc Schiffbauer...................................................................... 39
Marcela Eslava..............................................................7-2-39-50
Marcela Melendez..................................................................... 25
Marcelo Buchelli......................................................................... 7
59
60
Pascual Restrepo...................................................................... 35
Patricia Cortés............................................................................ 7
Patricia López Rodriguez.......................................................... 27
Paul Carrillo.............................................................................. 40
Paula Bustos............................................................................... 7
Paula Louzano.......................................................................... 33
Paulina Sepulveda.................................................................... 22
Paulo Bastos........................................................................33-46
Paulo Santos Monteiro.............................................................. 48
Pavel Luengas........................................................................... 24
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira......................................................... 38
Pedro Esteban Moncarz............................................................ 46
Pedro Gerardo Bernal Lara...................................................... 24
Pelin Berkmen.......................................................................... 23
Petros Sekeris........................................................................... 36
Rodolfo Stucchi......................................................................... 23
Rodrigo Caputo......................................................................... 47
Rodrigo Moura.......................................................................... 25
Rodrigo R. Soares................................................................26-45
Rodrigo Soares................................................................ 8-20-52
Rodrigo Valdes.......................................................................... 40
Rolando Avendaño.................................................................... 26
Romulo Chumacero.................................................................. 39
Rong Qian.................................................................................. 35
Rony Pshisva............................................................................. 45
Rosa Liliana Matzkin.................................................................. 8
Rudi Rocha................................................................................ 52
Ruy Lama.................................................................................. 34
Salomón Kalmanovitz................................................................. 8
Samuel Berlinski...................................................................... 25
Philippe Aghion......................................................................... 28
Pierre Boyer.............................................................................. 35
Pilar Romaguera....................................................................... 35
Portugal Perez Alberto............................................................. 45
Pravin Krishna.......................................................................... 36
Priscilla Tavares........................................................................ 52
Quy-Toan Do.............................................................................. 31
Rafael de Hoyos........................................................................ 20
Rafael de Sousa Camelo........................................................... 52
Rafael Di Tella....................................................................... 7-32
Rafael Novella........................................................................... 34
Ramon Moreno................................................................ 8-27-51
Ran Bi........................................................................................ 36
Raquel Bernal.................................................................. 7-20-44
Raquel Fernández....................................................................... 7
Raul Andrade............................................................................ 47
Raymundo M. Campos Vasquez............................................... 37
Rema Hanna............................................................................... 7
Renata Narita............................................................................ 21
René Garcia............................................................................... 24
Ricardo Aníbal Pasquini............................................................ 26
Ricardo Correa.......................................................................... 52
Ricardo Hausmann...................................................20-25-44-55
Ricardo Lagos............................................................................. 8
Ricardo Nogueira...................................................................... 50
Ricardo Paes de Barros............................................................ 49
Ricardo Paredes........................................................................ 38
Ricardo Pasquini....................................................................... 48
Ricardo Reis................................................................................ 8
Richani Nazih............................................................................ 48
Rita Da Costa............................................................................ 26
Robert Rennkack...................................................................... 23
Robert Veszteg.......................................................................... 54
Roberto Alvarez......................................................................... 45
Roberto Chang ....................................................................37-51
Roberto Perotti......................................................................... 54
Roberto Rigobón.........................................................8-20-31-40
Roberto Steiner........................................................................... 8
Samuel Bowles......................................................................... 25
Samuel Freije.......................................................................45-51
Sandra Ospina........................................................................... 39
Santiago Acosta Ormaechea.................................................... 38
Santiago Levy.......................................................................27-48
Sebastian Calonico................................................................... 47
Sebastian Edwards..................................................................... 7
Sebastian Freille....................................................................... 46
Sebastian Galiani...................................................................... 32
Sebastian Gallegos................................................................... 35
Sebastián Londoño Mora............................................................ 6
Sebastian Miller........................................................................ 33
Sebastian Nieto-Parra.............................................................. 26
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan............................................................ 37
Sergio Andrés Tobón Ospina....................................................... 6
Sérgio Leao .............................................................................. 26
Sergio Schmukler..................................................................... 36
Sergio Urzua........................................ 8-30-32-34-37-38-44-48
Shahe Emran............................................................................ 40
Shawn Cole............................................................................... 22
Sigifredo Laengle...................................................................... 53
Silvia Prina................................................................................ 47
Sofia Bauducco......................................................................... 39
Solange Berstein ..................................................................... 38
Sonia Di Giannatale................................................................... 27
Suman Basu.............................................................................. 36
Susan Parker.............................................................................. 8
Susan Pozo................................................................................ 33
Suzanne Duryea.......................................................................... 7
Sylvia Beatriz Guillermo Peón.................................................. 48
Taborda Rodrigo........................................................................ 46
Tatiana Brito.............................................................................. 30
Thomas Barnebeck Andersen.................................................. 52
Tiago Berriel............................................................................. 53
Tiago Miguel Castanheira Correia Costa Pires........................ 37
Todd Walker.............................................................................. 21
Tomás Castagnino.................................................................... 45
Tomas Ramirez......................................................................... 31
Tomás Rau................................................................................ 34
Tommaso Nanncini................................................................... 54
Ugo Panizza..................................................................... 8-26-31
Verónica Amarante................................................................... 30
Vincenzo Di Maro...................................................................... 44
Vinicius Carrasco...................................................................... 54
Viviana Velez-Grajales.............................................................. 22
Vladimir Poncze........................................................................ 33
Waldyr Areosa .......................................................................... 54
William Maloney...................................................................27-31
Wilson Romero . ....................................................................... 51
Ximena Peña............................................................................. 54
Yuri Soare.................................................................................. 47
61
XI. Notes
63
64
Notes
XII. Program Structure
Thursday, November 11th
8:00-8:15
Registration
8:00-8:30
8:15-8:30
8:30-8:45
8:45-9:00
9:00-10:00
10:00-10:15
10:15-10:30
10:30-10:40
10:40-11:45
12:00-12:10
12:10-12:55
12:55-13:15
13:15-13:25
13:25-13:55
Coffe Break
10:15 -11:45
Invited
10:15-11:45
Registration
8:15-8:45
Registration
8:15-8:45
Invited
8:45-10:15
Invited
8:45-10:15
Coffe Break
10:15 -10:40
Coffee Break
10:15-10:40
Contributed
10:40-12:10
Contributed
10:40-12:10
Lunch
12:10-13:25
Lunch
12:10-13:25
Plenary
13:25-14:25
Plenary
13:25-14:25
Contributed
14:35-16:05
Invited
14:35-16:05
Coffee Break
16:05-16:35
Coffee Break
16:05-16:35
Round Table/Policy
16:35-18:05
Contributed
16:35-18:05
Plenary
Albert Hirschman Lecture
18:15-19:15
Plenary
Carlos Alejandro Diaz Prize
18:15-19:15
Dinner
19:15-23:00
Closing Reception
19:15-20:30
Contributed
11:55-12:55
Lunch
12:55-13:55
13:55-14:25
14:25-14:35
Saturday, November 13th
Opening Ceremony
8:30-10:00
11:45-11:55
11:55-12:00
Friday, November 12th
Plenary
13:55-14:55
14:35-14:55
14:55-15:05
15:05-15:35
15:35-16:05
16:05-16:15
Invited
15:05-16:35
16:15-16:35
16:35-16:45
16:45-16:55
Coffee Break
16:35-16:55
16:55-17:55
17:55-18:05
18:05-18:15
Round Table/Policy
16:55-18:25
18:25-18:35
18:35-19:05
19:05-19:15
19:15-19:35
19:35-
Plenary
18:35-19:35
Opening Reception
19:35-21:30
18:15-18:25
65
66
Financial Inclusion in Latin America: where
do we stand?
Pablo Sanguinetti
Research Director
CAF - Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina
CAF Sponsored Panel at LACEA
“Recent Innovations to Improve Financial Inclusion: Latest Fad or a New Trend”
Medellin, November 11th 2010
Outline of the presentation
• Why we care about financial inclusion
• Households’ access to finance: new data from
CAF survey
• Is the lack of access to finance a problem only
for the poor?
• Conclusions: research questions
Why we care about financial inclusion
• Access to financial services and welfare:
• Impact on productivity: savings are channeled to entrepreneurs
with the best projects. Start up of new firms
• Established firms use financial services to save on transaction
costs and smooth investment expenditures
• Access to finance also helps families improve payment
technologies, saving time and money
• Households can smooth differences between expenditures
(planned and unplanned) and income using credit and saving
services
• Idiosyncratic risk can be shared and diversified at a low cost
through insurance products
Households: new data from CAF survey
• Where does Latin America stand on household
financial access?
•
•
•
•
•
Basic data on account holdings (¨Bancarización¨)
Transaction or payment services
Savings
Credit
Insurance
• CAF survey: 17 cities in Latin America (the two most
important in each country (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia,
Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela). 600 observations in
each city.
Basic data on financial access: in most countries
50% or more of urban population do not have a bank account
BOLIVIA
65,1
PERU
61,3
ARGENTINA
55,6
COLOMBIA
53,2
PANAMA
47,3
ECUADOR
46,2
URUGUAY
VENEZUELA
BRAZIL
Source: CAF (2010)
44,6
33,9
31,0
Type of account most commonly held ( in %):
Most people have saving account, very little use of checking
accounts (except Brazil) and credit cards
Access to finance and infrastructure services:
Having good access to certain infrastructure services is not always
correlated with access to banking
Access to financial services if household has:
Self reported satisfaction:
In most countries financial services are at the bottom
in terms of household’s satisfaction
Transaction services: most common mean of payment
very little use of instruments other than cash (except for Brazil)
Types of financial transactions performed by internet:
Very little use of internet for financial transactions
Do people use the financial system for savings?
Most people do not save and if they do they hold cash (domestic and foreign)
Do people use the financial system for savings?
In some countries households purchase durable goods as a way of
allocating savings (%)
Access to credit: the financial system (including banks, cooperatives
and microfinance institutions ) are the main source of loans; family and
money lenders are also relevant in some countries
What is the main purpose to apply for a loan?
Smooth out expenditures in durable goods appears one of the main reason
though current consumption is also relevant in various countries
ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL COLOMBIA ECUADOR PANAMA PERU URUGUAY VENEZUELA
Regional
average
Household consumption
17
14
42
32
17
8
12
27
22
22
Durable goods for the
household
Purchase of fixed assets for the
household
31
18
18
22
21
1
16
22
16
20
19
29
8
8
16
8
13
13
9
15
Business expenditure
3
6
28
4
8
4
8
3
10
8
Purchase of assets for the
business
6
13
0
10
5
3
18
3
6
8
Purchase of financial assets
1
3
0
2
0
4
2
1
0
1
Cover emergency expenses
3
9
0
8
18
35
15
7
23
11
14
8
0
12
13
36
15
24
8
14
Pay other debts
Insurance: what are the most important risks faced by
households? Illness ranks first followed by lost of job
ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL COLOMBIA ECUADOR PANAMA
PERU URUGUAY VENEZUELA
Regional
average
Illness
58
75
74
86
83
89
74
67
84
76
Business perform poorly
4
7
11
15
7
7
4
10
7
8
Loss of formal/informal
employment
27
18
27
40
22
23
15
25
17
24
Death
11
11
21
52
33
46
13
24
28
25
Loss / damage of dweling
4
3
9
19
8
15
4
20
15
11
Loss / damage of vehicle
4
2
9
8
3
9
2
13
6
6
Natural disaster
2
11
25
44
29
28
14
11
19
20
Theft of property
41
34
18
37
43
17
38
52
33
36
None
4
5
0
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
What type of insurance do people have?
Public health insurance is the most common service; private health and life
insurances are also relevant in some countries
Is lack of access to financial services only a problem for the poor?
Financial access is also limited for households in the middle and upper middle classes
Research questions suggested by the analysis of
the data (1)
• Why is it that people with in the middle and upper-middle
classes in various Latin American countries lack access to basic
banking services?
• Is access to finance associated not only with income but with
formal employment and more generally with the formal sector
of the economy?
• To what extent has the “microfinance revolution” been able to
break this association between formal employment and access
to financial services?
Research questions suggested by the analysis of
the data (2)
• In various countries we observe that formal credit and saving
instruments are used together with informal mechanisms (money
lenders and family loans). Why is this so?
• Are they attending different needs? Could we say that formal credit
arrangements (including microfinance) are not flexible enough?
• How important (quantitatively) is access to finance for household
welfare? Very few impact evaluation studies for LA. Good example
of serious work is presented in Banerjee et al, 2009 for a
microfinance program in Hyderabad, India. The most important
impact was on expenditures in durable goods. Case of a credit card
for poor households in Argentina. Access to finance also impacted
mostly on durable good expenditures.
http://www.caf.com

November 12 2010

Transcription

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