Melbourne Metro Business Case

Transcription

Cabinet in Confidence
Commercial in Confidence
Melbourne Metro 1
Options Assessment
MELBOURNE METRO
Business Case
December 2011
Version 2.1
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Business Case
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................... 7
PART A – DESCRIBING THE BUSINESS NEED ................................................................................................. 13
1
2
3
How the investment aligns with government policies ............................................................................. 13
1.1
Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 13
1.2
Victorian Government strategic and policy framework ........................................................................ 14
1.3
Local Government policy context ........................................................................................................ 21
1.4
Commonwealth policy context ............................................................................................................ 24
1.5
Summary of MM contribution to government policy and strategy........................................................ 26
Describing the existing and future situation ............................................................................................ 28
2.1
Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 28
2.2
Existing land use structure .................................................................................................................. 29
2.3
Existing transport context.................................................................................................................... 36
2.4
Population growth and housing........................................................................................................... 40
2.5
Industry and employment.................................................................................................................... 43
2.6
Sustainability of urban form................................................................................................................. 54
2.7
Public transport patronage .................................................................................................................. 58
2.8
Rail network capacity and performance .............................................................................................. 65
2.9
Summary of business need................................................................................................................. 83
Summarising the business need and investment drivers ....................................................................... 85
3.1
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 85
3.2
Definition and evidence of the problem ............................................................................................... 85
3.3
Timing considerations ......................................................................................................................... 87
3.4
Other occurrences of the problem....................................................................................................... 87
3.5
Investment logic .................................................................................................................................. 87
3.6
Project vision, goals and objectives .................................................................................................... 90
PART B – DEFINING THE BEST SOLUTION TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS......................................................... 92
4
5
Options assessment ................................................................................................................................... 92
4.1
Strategic options ................................................................................................................................. 92
4.2
Corridor options assessment .............................................................................................................. 94
4.3
Melbourne Metro default scheme........................................................................................................ 96
4.4
Station location and alignment options assessment ........................................................................... 97
4.5
Updated MM scheme ........................................................................................................................ 113
4.6
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct intervention options......................................................................... 115
4.7
Property acquisition and development around new metro stations ................................................... 120
4.8
Vertical alignment options ................................................................................................................. 121
4.9
Station access and mobility options .................................................................................................. 124
Scope of preferred scheme...................................................................................................................... 131
5.1
Scope definition process ................................................................................................................... 131
5.2
Peer review process.......................................................................................................................... 134
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5.3
MM tunnel ......................................................................................................................................... 137
5.4
MM stations....................................................................................................................................... 143
5.5
South Kensington tunnel portal – Sunbury........................................................................................ 151
5.6
Northern Loop, Frankston loop and Cross-City Metros ..................................................................... 151
5.7
Tram integration works...................................................................................................................... 152
5.8
Property acquisition........................................................................................................................... 153
5.9
Property acquisition and development around new metro stations ................................................... 157
5.10
Arden urban renewal precinct ........................................................................................................... 159
Project interfaces, future proofing and complementary programs ...................................................... 162
6.1
Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 162
6.2
Precursor projects ............................................................................................................................. 162
6.3
Future proofing.................................................................................................................................. 162
6.4
Interdependent projects .................................................................................................................... 166
6.5
Complementary projects and programs ............................................................................................ 166
6.6
Detailed project interfaces................................................................................................................. 170
PART C – BENEFITS AND IMPACTS ................................................................................................................ 172
7
8
9
10
Benefits, operating plan, patronage & land use impact ........................................................................ 172
7.1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 172
7.2
Outputs, benefits and key performance indicators ............................................................................ 172
7.3
Concept of Operations ...................................................................................................................... 181
7.4
Rolling stock deployment strategy .................................................................................................... 191
7.5
Patronage impacts ............................................................................................................................ 193
7.6
Land use impacts .............................................................................................................................. 207
Risk assessment ....................................................................................................................................... 211
8.1
Risk assessment process ................................................................................................................. 211
8.2
Key risks ........................................................................................................................................... 214
8.3
Risk modelling................................................................................................................................... 218
8.4
Operational risk management ........................................................................................................... 219
Project cost................................................................................................................................................ 220
9.1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 220
9.2
Cost estimate methodology............................................................................................................... 223
Economic assessment ............................................................................................................................. 227
10.1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 227
10.2
Key assumptions and parameters..................................................................................................... 231
10.3
Costs................................................................................................................................................. 231
10.4
Transport benefits and network impacts ........................................................................................... 232
10.5
User benefits..................................................................................................................................... 233
10.6
Externalities ...................................................................................................................................... 235
10.7
Residual value .................................................................................................................................. 236
10.8
Arden transport benefits.................................................................................................................... 237
10.9
Wider economic benefits................................................................................................................... 237
10.10
Sensitivity tests and conclusion ........................................................................................................ 241
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Environmental assessment...................................................................................................................... 243
11.1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 243
11.2
Preliminary environmental benefits ................................................................................................... 243
11.3
Preliminary environmental impacts ................................................................................................... 245
Social assessment .................................................................................................................................... 252
12.1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 252
12.2
Human capital benefits...................................................................................................................... 252
12.3
Other social benefits ......................................................................................................................... 256
12.4
Specific urban development benefits ................................................................................................ 256
12.5
Social impacts of tunnel construction ................................................................................................ 259
PART D – DELIVERY ARRANGEMENTS .......................................................................................................... 260
13
14
15
16
17
18
Stakeholder engagement ......................................................................................................................... 260
13.1
Stakeholder engagement strategy .................................................................................................... 260
13.2
Stakeholder framework ..................................................................................................................... 261
13.3
Stakeholder consultation results ....................................................................................................... 263
13.4
Stakeholder consultation next steps.................................................................................................. 267
13.5
Technical and operational stakeholders............................................................................................ 268
Delivery strategy ....................................................................................................................................... 270
14.1
Procurement strategy........................................................................................................................ 270
14.2
Planning approvals............................................................................................................................ 276
14.3
Planning process to support property acquisition.............................................................................. 279
14.4
Detailed project development phase schedule.................................................................................. 280
14.5
Construction schedule....................................................................................................................... 282
Project governance................................................................................................................................... 285
15.1
Overall governance ........................................................................................................................... 285
15.2
Project team...................................................................................................................................... 287
15.3
Reference groups.............................................................................................................................. 290
Funding requirements .............................................................................................................................. 292
16.1
Phase 1 – Project Development........................................................................................................ 292
16.2
Phase 2 – Pre-construction............................................................................................................... 292
16.3
Phase 3 – Implementation ................................................................................................................ 293
Lessons learned and innovation ............................................................................................................. 295
17.1
The Tunnelling Joint Code of Practice .............................................................................................. 295
17.2
Victorian projects............................................................................................................................... 295
17.3
Interstate projects.............................................................................................................................. 299
17.4
International projects......................................................................................................................... 301
Public interest issues and Transport Integration Act ............................................................................ 304
18.1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 304
18.2
Public interest ................................................................................................................................... 304
18.3
Principles .......................................................................................................................................... 304
18.4
TIA Objectives................................................................................................................................... 309
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19
Recommendation ...................................................................................................................................... 312
20
Bibliography .............................................................................................................................................. 313
21
Acronyms and Glossary of Terms........................................................................................................... 317
APPENDIX CONTENTS
APPENDIX 1 – RETAIL OFFER
APPENDIX 2 – DETAILED STAKEHOLDER MATRIX
APPENDIX 3 – PROJECT RISK REGISTER
APPENDIX 4 – DETAILED PROJECT COST SCHEDULES
APPENDIX 5 – DETAILED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CASHFLOWS
Version
Purpose
Date
1.8
Issued to Commonwealth Sept 2011
1 December 2010
2.1
Final
December 2011
TRIM REFERENCE NUMBER: TRIM/WORK/08/1513 – FOL/10/1025 – DOC/10/87361
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Foreword
“Forecasts indicate that, a decade from now, metropolitan Melbourne could potentially
become Australia’s largest city, with over one million people commuting to the central city
every day. In fact, the share of trips into central Melbourne by public transport is up from 52%
in the late 1990s to 65% in 2007, demonstrating the importance of the rail network in providing
access to central Melbourne.
“The Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program will lead development of a world class rail
transit system, facilitating the comfortable, safe and efficient movement of residents, workers
and visitors. This is also in line with Council’s policies regarding improved public transport
access in support of more sustainable and efficient outcomes.
“The Melbourne CBD has grown while the core of our heavy rail system, the City Loop, has
been confined within the limits of the Hoddle grid. Today the central city effectively extends
from St Kilda Road, up through Southbank to the historic CBD, across to Docklands and north
to the burgeoning Carlton/Parkville university and research precinct. The Melbourne Metro 1
project will add services to the expanded central city area and relieve the pressure on St Kilda
Road/Swanston Street tram services.
“Melbourne’s future success rests largely on our ability to establish a knowledge economy of
global relevance. Our education sector is already a world leader and major economic
contributor; biotechnology and medical research are significant growth industries. The
Melbourne Metro 1 will physically connect our bio-medical research and university precincts in
St Kilda Road and Parkville/Carlton, and provide daily access for thousands of students,
teachers, and researchers: it is foundation infrastructure for future growth.
“The Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program is essential for the growth and
development of a sustainable Melbourne and a thriving central city. Above ground, it will act
as a powerful catalyst for urban development and renewal in districts around new stations.
Greater urban density, which includes a mix of uses such as entertainment and cafés, retail,
residential, and commercial activity, all contribute to the economic stability, safety, and
sustainability of the city.”
Robert Doyle
Lord Mayor, City of Melbourne
Regional Rail Link & Melbourne Metro 1 Project Plan: Progress
Report for Infrastructure Australia, October 2009
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This document presents the preliminary business case for implementation of the Melbourne Metro
(MM) project, including a full appraisal of the need, benefits, costs, risks and indicative delivery
arrangements to underpin pre-implementation funding submissions. The scope of the project to
concept stage is articulated. It follows the comprehensive options assessment report (March 2010),
which established the preferred alignment and station locations for MM and a draft pre-construction
business case for MM1 (December 2010). This business case therefore reflects the results of ongoing
investigations during 2011 and the latest refinement of the scope of the project. It will be updated and
refined as part of the pre-construction phase.
Separate submissions are being made to the Commonwealth for pre-construction ($130 million) to
permit the detailed development and early works) and to the Victorian State Government for corridor
protection ($100 million). The State is also pursuing investment in rolling stock and associated
stabling, power and overhead upgrades to enable the service plans of this and other investments
to be delivered.
The project
The Melbourne Metro (MM) project is the critical enabler of a metro-style rail system in Melbourne,
which is needed to maintain Melbourne’s liveability in the face of strong population growth, decreasing
access to jobs and services, a poorly performing and congested transport system and declining
productivity growth. The rail tunnel from South Kensington to South Yarra, and accompanying
surface works, will dramatically increase transport capacity to central Melbourne, improving
accessibility to Melbourne’s knowledge economy and facilitating inner urban renewal through a major
development precinct in North Melbourne.
The project was conceived as part of a seven-stage metropolitan rail capacity upgrade program to
address Melbourne’s transport and land use needs. Stages 1 to 4 of that program are fully funded and
construction is either well underway or completed. This includes Regional Rail Link (Stage 4).
The program previously envisaged delivery of the Melbourne Metro in two stages, with Melbourne
Metro 1 (MM1) as Stage 5. The Department of Transport has undertaken significant engineering, rail,
environmental, patronage, economic and land use investigations on Stages 5, 6 and 7, being MM1,
Melbourne Metro 2 and Melton Rail Upgrade. Based on these investigations, the metropolitan rail
upgrade plan includes refined definitions of Stages 5, 6 and 7 as indicated below (Figure E1).
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Figure E1: Updated Metropolitan Rail Upgrade Plan
Stage 5 - Melbourne Metro (MM) (this business case) - a new rail tunnel from South Kensington to
South Yarra, with stations and alignment as per MM1, plus surface works, which lays the foundation
for ‘metro-style’ services across the metropolitan rail network (refer Figure E2) and addresses critical
rail capacity bottlenecks and operational issues in the inner city and on lines serving most of
Melbourne’s growth corridors.
The project unlocks capacity for fourteen additional train services in the peak hour across
Melbourne’s north-west and three extra services on the Frankston and Sandringham lines. Further
passenger capacity uplift will be provided through longer trains on the Sunbury - Dandenong Metro.
The previous MM2 default “long” tunnel from Domain to Caulfield along Dandenong Road is made
redundant by the considerably more cost-effective “short tunnel” extension of MM1 along Toorak
Road, joining Dandenong rail corridor east of South Yarra station. The additional capacity that the
MM2 long tunnel option provides between Caulfield and South Yarra is no longer required for the
foreseeable future. Further, detailed investigations around possible stations along the MM2 tunnel
corridor options found no scope for major urban renewal, hence this is not a factor in selecting MM2
alignments.
The Melbourne Metro concept has also been refined and optimised by incorporating significant value
engineering opportunities analysed during 2011. Key improvements, in addition to the extension to
South Yarra, include a higher (shallower) vertical alignment and simplified interchange with Flinders
Street Station.
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Figure E2: Melbourne Metro rail system schematic
Stage 6 - Dandenong Rail Capacity (DRC) Program – staged investment to address critical
capacity issues on the corridor including provision for operational and timetable changes, longer
trains, signalling and power upgrades, road-rail grade separations and trackwork. These investments
will need to be progressively implemented over the next decade, commencing in the next two years. It
is assumed that with the long lead and construction timeframes for MM, a significant component of
the DRC works will be completed by MM opening. It is assumed that longer (9-car) trains will be
operating by MM opening; hence longer platforms will be required on the Sunbury corridor as part of
MM scope.
While MM has strong economic performance on its own, the DRC investments permit future benefits
of MM and are included in the economic analysis of the ultimate MM scheme. DRC works will
integrate and allow for the future connections to the Port of Hastings and the proposed future rail line
to Rowville, which is currently envisaged to connect to DRC at Huntingdale.
Stage 7 and beyond - the Metropolitan Planning Strategy (MPS), incorporating an integrated
transport strategy and refined rail priorities, is currently being prepared. The need or priority for MM
and DRC will not change, as urban development patterns for the next ten to fifteen years are already
largely set. The effects of the MPS will begin to reshape Melbourne’s urban form, and hence influence
the rail priorities, beyond this timeframe.
Feasibility studies are underway for upgraded or extended rail lines to Rowville, Doncaster and
Melbourne and Avalon Airports. The sequencing and staging of metropolitan rail upgrades beyond
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MM and DRC will be determined following these feasibility studies and in the context of the MPS. MM
is compatible with these initiatives.
Why should Governments invest in this project?
Investment in this MM is warranted because it addresses fundamental needs of the city, aligns
completely with the strategic aims of all levels of government, creates major environmental and social
gains and delivers substantially higher economic benefits than its whole-of-life cost. The project is
ready to proceed to the pre-construction phase, which needs to commence as soon as possible. The
ten-year lead time for the project means the earliest delivery time is 2021, and while the Regional Rail
Link project will ease existing congestion, the transport system will again be congested by 2018.
The rationale for investment in the project is explained in detail in the business case in four parts.
The business need identified (Part A) shows that:
the project is completely aligned with the Commonwealth, State and local government’s policy
and strategic aims;
Melbourne’s population is growing faster than any other capital city in Australia.
Its knowledge economy in the central area is now critical to the nation with jobs located in the City
of Melbourne having reached 500,000 - double the number of two decades ago; and
Melbourne’s productivity growth, sustainability, liveability and accessibility to jobs and services is
declining due to inequitable growth patterns and growing road, tram and train congestion. Current
commitments to rail capacity enhancement will fail to meet future demand, resulting in chronic
overcrowding and unreliability of the public transport system.
The preferred solution (Part B) to address these problems principally comprises a nine-kilometre rail
tunnel between South Kensington in the west and South Yarra in the south-east connecting the
Northern and Caulfield rail groups and bypassing the key bottlenecks North Melbourne and
Richmond.
Thorough options analysis has been undertaken over several years to determine the optimum
solution, including assessment of strategic, corridor, alignment and project options. The analysis
concluded that the Melbourne Metro Rail Tunnel, in combination with surface works across the rail
network and interventions to facilitate intense employment-focused mixed use development in North
Melbourne, is the best way to address these problems.
The Melbourne Metro (MM) is one part of a staged rail capacity upgrade plan to meet the growth on
Melbourne’s train network in the short, medium and long term. The Melbourne Metro is a key part of
this comprehensive expansion of the rail network providing a critical link through the central area. It
adds the capacity needed to meet the expected demand for rail travel in the Northern and Caulfield
rail groups, which are currently the most congested parts of the network.
The overall impacts and benefits of the Melbourne Metro (Part C) confirm that it has major strategic
social, environmental and economic benefits, which more than offset the whole-of-life investment.
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The project delivers an additional 17 train services or capacity for approximately 25,000 additional
passengers in the peak hour in the peak direction. When subsequently complemented by works to
remove other capacity constraints on the network, such as in the Dandenong Corridor, the MM tunnel
will be able to carry more than 60,000 passengers each hour in each direction.
The project delivers savings of 8 million tonnes of greenhouse gases across the project life and
improves accessibility to a range of existing and emerging activity and employment centres in the
south-east, north and west. Its scale also creates the opportunity to create a more equitable urban
form and deliver major human capital benefits, particularly to the outer south-east, north and west.
The MM project’s initial estimated capital cost is $7 to $7.5 billion (real 2010/11), excluding rolling
stock and related works. The ultimate scheme has a benefit cost ratio of 1.6–1.8 and an NPV of
$5.6–$6.5 billion.
A project of this nature, scale and location will naturally include significant risks. Many of these risks
have been identified early and mitigated through the design process. The project team has also
undertaken a Gateway review and several technical peer reviews of the scheme (by an independent
panel of international experts). Significant value engineering activities have been undertaken to
address risks and issues raised by the peer reviewers.
The key risks, which continue to be mitigated as possible as the project proceeds, include:
Geotechnical risks regarding knowledge of ground conditions, geology, hydrogeology and
construction method;
Construction impacts and disruption, including work injuries and failure of major equipment on
critical path (eg TBM) during construction
Scope creep resulting from stakeholder requirements and inter-dependent projects not
proceeding as expected
Work packaging interface and management risk
Market unable to support sufficient consortia/finance for multiple, competitive bids, resulting in
higher project costs or funding/delivery model design does not cater for market appetite
Industrial Relations - delays due to industrial disputes, access agreements and difficulties in
achieving acceptance of new technologies/standards
The delivery arrangements for the project (Part D) indicate the project is ready to proceed to preconstruction phases and to complete statutory approvals and protect the corridor.
The broader Melbourne community and stakeholders affected by the project have been engaged in a
variety of mechanisms to date. The project enjoys strong support from the community, local, State
and Commonwealth governments. Community responses to the alignment options and station
locations assessment showed that 93% of respondents are in favour the project. A staged program of
stakeholder engagement is about to commence to support the statutory approvals process. This
includes the establishment of a Community Reference Group and Key Stakeholder Reference Group.
A preliminary investigation into procurement strategies found that the tunnels and stations should be
packaged and delivered as a Public Private Partnership (PPP), with the design, build and maintain
model to be retained as the next preferred model (ie without private financing). Other works (eg
surface works) will be delivered using traditional delivery models.
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Preliminary work has been undertaken to identify, assess and quantify value capture mechanisms,
including examination of options for sources of funding and funding models for the project. This work
will continue in the next phase.
This includes over-station development, proceeds from uplift in state-owned land, Tax Incremental
Financing, rates levies, uplift in future public transport far receipts, reallocation of the CBD parking
charge, public transport ticket levy, further charges to landowners based on uplift in property values,
and road user charges / vehicle registration levies. This work is ongoing.
A governance structure has been established for the project’s development to date, which will
facilitate a smooth transition to the ultimate delivery structure. The project’s delivery method (including
resolution of risks to be retained and managed by the State) will need to be confirmed before the
governance structure for delivery is established. A preliminary resources plan and organisational
structure have been prepared to support the project’s progress through the pre-construction phase.
The statutory approvals process, including the environmental assessment process for the scheme
has commenced. This will assist in preparation of the project proposal for declaration under the Major
Transport Projects Facilitation Act (MTPFA). The MTPFA has been selected as the preferred statutory
approvals process (instead of the process defined in the Environmental Effects Act) principally
because timeframes are more certain and approvals are consolidated into a single integrated decision
to be made by the Minister for Planning.
Declaration of the project under the MTPFA is the first statutory step, planned to occur early 2012.
This will be followed by preparation of a Comprehensive Impact Statement including public exhibition
and assessment committee during 2012. It is proposed to secure statutory approvals by 2013.
Recommendation
This assessment of the MM project demonstrates that it will shape Melbourne’s development over the
next 20 to 30 years. It shows compelling economic, social and environmental benefits and justifiably
enjoys strong stakeholder and community support.
It is recommended that this business case be endorsed as a basis for considering the preconstruction and corridor protection funding submissions.
It is recommended that Governments proceed with the next phases of development to enable a full
implementation business case to be prepared.
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PART A – DESCRIBING THE BUSINESS NEED
1
How the investment aligns with
government policies
1.1
Overview
This section sets out the national, state and local government policies and strategies which provide
the basis for the development of MM and this business case.
The policies of the new State Government reinforce the strategic case for MM. Themes which support
MM include fixing capacity problems on the rail network, building for future growth, creating
opportunities for consolidated urban development and renewal, strengthening the capital city and
supporting growth corridors.
The key policy principles that underpin the decisions for the development of the transport system in
Victoria are enshrined in the Transport Integration Act 2010. The Act sets out a framework to ensure
the components of the transport system are considered together and that transport and land use
planning are addressed as one.
The Victorian Planning Provisions (VPP) set out the strategic land use and transport planning for
Victoria. The VPP recognises the importance of an effective transport and land use system in meeting
people’s need for access to both enhance their own quality of life and for communal benefit
associated with a growing economy and inclusive society. The recognition of faster than forecast
population growth in Melbourne and an historic shift of the focus of metropolitan growth to the north
and west was inherent in ongoing updates to the VPP. The MM project is essential to supporting the
development of a mature transport to support this urban expansion in Melbourne’s north and west,
and to connecting these growing areas with the employment opportunities and other activities in and
around central Melbourne.
Victorian planning policy is based on integration of land and transport, improving productivity and
making the best use of existing infrastructure. Facilitating urban consolidation and sustainable growth
patterns is a key land use objective. DOT has developed a seven-stage rail capacity upgrade program
in this policy context. The program will deliver capacity and performance upgrades to the transport
system to address congestion, meet population growth, enhance accessibility and improve the city’s
productivity. It contains initiatives that have either been completed, are committed and underway or
are planned for the future.
Planning for the rail network has hinged on creating a metro-style train system to allow frequent train
services day and night so as to meet the needs of an international city of five million people and
beyond. Metro rail systems are designed to run higher capacity trains from end to end of lines using
dedicated tracks. Unlike today’s rail network, the trains can run at higher frequency without interfering
with other routes. The focus is on simple timetables, frequent services and consistent stopping
patterns. MM is the key stage of the seven-stage plan to facilitate metro-style services.
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At a local government level, the City of Melbourne’s Future Melbourne Plan and Municipal Strategic
Statement (MSS) are the overarching transport and land use policy documents. A review of the MSS
is under way, and the draft of this review recognises MM as the most fundamental change in the
transport network for the municipality.
The key Commonwealth Government policy relevant to MM is provided through Infrastructure
Australia (IA) which is advising the Commonwealth Government on priority projects that increase
Australia’s productivity, diversify the economy, build on Australia’s global competitive advantages,
develop our cities, reduce greenhouse emissions, and improve social equity and quality of life. The
“develop our cities” and “increase Australia’s productivity” objectives are at the heart of the MM
project. The Commonwealth Treasury Intergenerational Report provides background on the mix of
long-term challenges Australia is facing.
This section concludes with a summary of how MM is contributing towards the achievement of these
various policies.
1.2
1.2.1
Victorian Government strategic and policy framework
Introduction
The policy context of Victoria’s new State Government will be subject to ongoing development to
better articulate the current Government’s policies as they emerge. The government’s transport and
planning agendas, and hence MM, will need to inform and respond to the ongoing refinement of
planning strategies:
a new Metropolitan Planning Strategy to develop an outcomes-based model of metropolitan
planning for Melbourne which takes into account the provision of services and infrastructure.
Population Strategy for all of Victoria to investigate new population corridors in regional Victoria
and the possibility of extending existing infrastructure in regional cities to help manage Victoria’s
population growth.
Metropolitan Liveability Audit to understand the full capacity of Melbourne’s rail, tram, bus and
road networks to find the gaps and optimise its use.
Acceleration of the provision of zoned land to ensure a 20-25 year supply of land in growth
corridors followed by a biennial review of the Urban Growth Boundary.
It is expected that, given the scale and metropolitan-wide impact of MM, its need will be undiminished
by refinement of long term planning strategies. The rail system will progressively reach capacity from
2015 onwards, whereas the timeframes for fundamental changes in settlement patterns are much
longer. For this reason, while changes to land use policies may slightly alter or delay the long term
benefits of the project, the need for the project is unchanged.
Although the MM project has been developed partly in the context of policies of the previous Victorian
Government, the project primarily responds to fundamental drivers. Some, but not all, of these drivers
are within the influence of governments. The current Victorian Government has announced various
policies relevant to MM and it is clear that these strengthen the case for the project overall, relative to
1
the strategic fit assessment for the project .
1
Regional Rail Link, Melbourne Metro Rail Tunnel Stage 1: Project Plan for Infrastructure Australia (DOT, January 2009).
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Some of the themes emerging from the new Government’s policies which are relevant to and
reinforce the strategic fit of MM are:
fixing capacity problems on the rail network – the rail system will progressively reach capacity
from 2015 onwards (refer section 3), which MM specifically addresses
building for future growth – train patronage, population and employment are all clearly growing
significantly. While MM addresses existing and short term congestion problems, it provides
significant capacity for growth
creating opportunities for consolidated renewal and development zones – MM is the
catalyst for significant urban development in North Melbourne and surrounding areas of the inner
west and provides the environment for urban development in accessible locations along rail
corridors
strengthening the capital city – a focus on metropolitan Melbourne and improving the
productivity of the capital city by improving connections between the centre and metropolitan subregions to the north east, south east and west
supporting growth corridors – supporting the south-east, north and west growth corridors and
biennial reviews of the urban growth boundary. MM provides for growth in these areas and also
provides the environment in which more compact urban development patterns can be facilitated
along rail corridors.
It is clear therefore that the emerging themes and policies of the new government reinforce the
strategic case for MM.
1.2.2
Transport Integration Act
The Transport Integration Act (TIA) unifies the transport portfolio under the one framework – including
ports and marine and transport regulation. The new legislation strives to achieve both integration and
sustainability in economic, environmental and social terms. The new Act requires all transport
agencies to work together toward the common goal of an integrated, sustainable transport system.
It also means land-use agencies – including DPCD, municipal councils, the Growth Areas Authority
and Parks Victoria – will need to take account of the new Act when making decisions that impact on
the transport system.
The Act recognises that transport planning and land use planning are fundamentally the same thing,
whether it be in long term planning, operations, project design, development or delivery.
The key policy principles that underpin the decisions for transport and related projects are enshrined
in the Act. The Act sets the following vision statement for Victoria’s transport system:
The Parliament recognises the aspirations of Victorians for an integrated and sustainable
transport system that contributes to an inclusive, prosperous and environmentally
responsible State.
The Act sets a number of objectives for the transport system:
social and economic inclusion
economic prosperity
environmental sustainability
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integration of transport and land use
efficiency, coordination and reliability
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The project goals and investment logic identified for MM in this business case align closely with these
objectives.
The Act also lays out decision-making principles, to be employed in making decisions affecting the
transport system:
integrated decision making
triple bottom line (social, economic and environmental) assessment
equity
transport system user perspective
precautionary
stakeholder engagement and community participation
transparency.
These principles are strongly reflected in the project and the development of this business case.
Transport and land use agencies at multiple levels of government have come together to ensure
integrated and transparent decision making and a triple bottom line assessment is fundamental to the
evaluation of the project.
More detail regarding how the MM incorporates the principles and objectives of the Act is outlined in
the final section of this business case where public interest issues are examined by looking at the
Act’s principles and objectives.
1.2.3
Victorian Planning Provisions
The context and framework for spatial planning and managing land use in Victoria is outlined in the
Victoria Planning Provisions, and state and metropolitan policies are detailed in the State Planning
Policy Framework (SPPF).
The planning provisions set out an approach to manage Melbourne’s growth for the next 30 years in a
way that consolidates the city’s reputation as one of the most liveable, attractive and prosperous
areas in the world for residents, businesses and visitors. The level of growth envisaged was
approximately 620,000 additional households by 2030, to be accommodated through urban
consolidation and development of sites in established areas, greenfield sites and dispersed urban and
non-urban locations. This is currently being review as part of the Metropolitan Planning Strategy and
updated population and employment forecasts.
The SPPF includes three directions which are of particular note:
A more compact city, which included an objective to ‘locate a substantial proportion of new
housing in or close to activity centres and other strategic redevelopment sites that offer good
access to services and transport’.
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A more prosperous city included an objective to ‘strengthen Central Melbourne’s capital city
functions and its role as the primary business, retail, sport and entertainment hub for the
metropolitan area’.
better transport links included an objective to ‘plan urban development to make jobs and
community services more accessible’.
These directions and subsequent actions have led to the definition of MM.
In recognition that population growth had been faster than originally forecast, the Victorian Planning
Provisions are now premised on a level of population growth that will see approximately 600,000
additional dwellings in metropolitan Melbourne over the next 20 years, rather than over a 30-year
period as originally envisaged. Setting clear boundaries for Melbourne’s growth is a key element of
managing growth, and this will manage outward expansion, facilitate achievement of a compact city,
protect non-urban areas and ensure ready access to infrastructure in the key transport corridors.
During this period, the number of jobs within the metropolitan area will also grow significantly, from
1.86 million to nearly three million. Many of the higher order jobs are expected to be located in
central/inner Melbourne and the spine towards Monash, whilst employment opportunities in the outer
and fringe areas will tend to be more dominated by retail, community service and industrial jobs.
The Victorian Planning Provisions, through changes to the UGB, also recognise the historic shift of
the focus of metropolitan growth to the north and west. While Melbourne has grown asymmetrically
th
towards the east since the late 19 Century, fundamental constraints to the last remaining growth
area in the east, Casey/Cardinia, mean that urban expansion will predominantly be to the north and
west in coming decades. The MM project is fundamental to supporting the development of a mature
transport network to the north and west to support this urban expansion and to connecting these
growing areas with the employment opportunities and other activities in central Melbourne.
1.2.4
Central Melbourne
As the pre-eminent higher order employment node in the state, central Melbourne generates
significant productivity due to the concentration of knowledge jobs and specialisation of industries and
employment. Employment in the City of Melbourne has doubled to 500,000 in the past two decades
and is predicted to continue to grow by a further 200,000 by 2031. MM will strongly contribute to
central Melbourne, enhancing this critical role, and providing opportunities for expansion of the ‘inner
core’ office market to be progressively taken up.
The inner Melbourne planning policy context of the project is shown in Figure 1-1.
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Figure 1-1: Inner Melbourne planning policy context
Source: (City of Melbourne, 2008)
1.2.5
Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program
This section briefly summarises the fundamental policy drivers and integrated long term planning that
has been undertaken by DOT for the rail system, in collaboration with DPCD. In particular, it reports
on the seven-stage rail capacity upgrade program to deliver capacity and performance upgrades to
the transport system to address congestion, meet population growth, enhance accessibility and
improve the city’s productivity.
beyond. Metro rail systems are designed to run higher capacity trains from end to end of lines using
dedicated tracks. Unlike today’s rail network, the trains can run at higher frequency without interfering
with other routes. The focus is on simple timetables, frequent services and consistent stopping
patterns. MM is the key to make this happen.
As outlined above, Victorian planning policy is based on integration of land and transport, improving
productivity and making the best use of existing infrastructure. Facilitating urban consolidation and
sustainable growth patterns is a key land use objective. The Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade
Program continues to be refined and developed in this policy context.
A staged approach to the delivery of Melbourne Metro was previously contemplated in the context of
the seven-stage metropolitan rail upgrade program. Melbourne Metro is the pivotal ‘metro-enabling’
component of this strategy which builds on precursor projects and initiatives (ie Stages 1 – 4), which
are fully funded and either underway or completed:
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Stage 1 - service changes and new greenfields timetables to improve rail capacity and reliability
across the network (implemented)
Stage 2 - Laverton and Westall Rail Upgrades (completed)
Stage 3 - Craigieburn Train Stabling and Maintenance Facility (completed) and Sunbury
Electrification Project (underway)
Stage 4 - Regional Rail Link (underway)
The Department of Transport has undertaken significant engineering, rail, environmental, patronage,
economic and land use investigations on Melbourne Metro 1, Melbourne Metro 2 and Melton Raul
Upgrade projects, which formed Stages 5, 6 and 7. Based on these investigations, the updated
Metropolitan Rail Upgrade Program (Figure 1-2) includes refined definitions of the latter three stages:
Stage 5: Melbourne Metro (MM) – new rail tunnel from South Kensington to South Yarra plus
surface works to allow reconfiguration of the network to provide new segregated, metro-style lines
and substantially more capacity across the Northern and Caulfield Rail Groups
Stage 6: Dandenong Rail Capacity (DRC) Program – staged investment to address intensifying
capacity issues on the Dandenong rail corridor including provision for longer trains, signalling and
power upgrades, road-rail grade separations and trackwork.
The sequencing and staging of metropolitan and regional rail upgrades beyond MM and DRC
Program (ie Stage 7 and beyond) will be determined following various rail feasibility studies and in the
context of the Metropolitan Planning Strategy (MPS). The MPS is currently being prepared and
incorporates an integrated transport strategy and refined rail priorities.
The need or priority for MM and the DRC Program will not change, as urban development patterns for
the next ten to fifteen years are already largely set. The effects of the MPS will begin to reshape
Melbourne’s urban form, and hence influence the rail priorities, beyond this timeframe. Feasibility
studies are underway for upgraded or extended rail lines to Rowville, Doncaster, Upgrading Regional
Passenger Lines (Melton-Ballarat and Bendigo), Melbourne and Avalon Airports. Further details on
the impacts and shortfalls in capacity that will remain after each of these initiatives is implemented are
provided in section 2.8.
2
The Regional Rail Line Upgrades and Regional City Program , which aims to further strengthen
the economic and social integration of regional centres and metropolitan Melbourne, includes the
Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines project (duplication and upgrade of Melton-Ballarat and
Bendigo lines) and urban redevelopment initiatives on regional rail corridors at Footscray, Sunshine
and Toolern. This project (previously known as Melton Rail Upgrade) is currently on the Infrastructure
Australia pipeline at an “Early Stage”.
2
Stage 5 of the Regional Rail Development Program, which is the next stage to be delivered (Stage 4 is Regional Rail Link and
Stages 1, 2 and 3 have largely been delivered).
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Figure 1-2: Updated Metropolitan Rail Upgrade Program
Indicative timing for the development and delivery of the six-stage program is shown in Figure 1-3.
Figure 1-3: Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program – Indicative Schedule
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1.3
1.3.1
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Local Government policy context
City of Melbourne
The need for effective and integrated public transport is a key tenet of the City of Melbourne’s Future
Melbourne plan. The plan targets an increase in the percentage of people who use public transport,
cycle or walk to work in the central city from 72% to 90% by 2020 and calls for a significant increase
in the capacity and quality of train, tram and bus services to accommodate this. Future Melbourne
also underlines the state’s planning provisions to channel new urban growth into transit-oriented
development focused around train and tram nodes. The City of Melbourne has been a key partner in
the development of the MM and has been working in an integrated way with DOT, DPCD and the MM
project team on the refresh of the city’s Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS).
3
The recently exhibited City of Melbourne draft Municipal Strategic Statement envisages varying
degrees of land use change as the municipality continues to grow and develop, whilst retaining valued
characteristics (Figure 1-4). It is intended that this will be achieved by “targeting growth and
development to transform the large parts of the City that are currently redundant, underutilised or
undervalued, enabling ongoing but more incremental growth and development in those parts of the
City that need to constantly renew their vitality, and maintaining the existing character in valued
established areas”.
The draft MSS introduces three new strategic land use framework areas:
stable areas – those anticipated to experience the least growth and change due to physical and
planning controls
ongoing change areas – primarily established areas predicted to undergo modest changes
urban renewal areas – areas predicted to experience the greatest level of growth and
development, often including whole precincts. Urban areas of note for MM include the precincts of
Kensington/North Melbourne; Arden/Macaulay, North Dynon; Racecourse rail corridor; E-Gate;
City North and CUB. These areas are key locations of interest for MM and support its
implementation.
3
Amendment C162 to the Melbourne Planning Scheme exhibited on 8/7/2010.
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Figure 1-4: City of Melbourne Growth Framework Plan
(Source: Draft Municipal Strategic Statement, City of Melbourne, July 2010)
1.3.2
Other municipalities
The relevant municipalities can be grouped into those in inner Melbourne, middle ring suburbs and
the growth corridors, as follows:
Inner Melbourne: Cities of Port Phillip and Stonnington
Middle Suburbs: Brimbank, Hobson’s Bay, Maribyrnong, Moonee Valley, Moreland (north and
west), Bayside, Glen Eira, Monash, Kingston, Greater Dandenong (south-east)
Growth corridors: Hume and Whittlesea (North), Melton and Wyndham (West) and Casey and
Cardinia (South east).
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The local government areas are mapped in Figure 1-5. The local governments in Melbourne’s north,
west and south-east are supportive of initiatives to improve rail capacity, particularly between the
growth corridors and central Melbourne. This was reflected in submissions received in the
development of the Victorian Transport Plan, for example the City of Hume’s acknowledgement of the
strategic importance of the project: “The underground rail link provides opportunity for some of the
most congested sections of the network...to be freed up.”
Figure 1-5: Melbourne Metropolitan local government areas
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A review of policies of the relevant municipalities has indicated that these policies generally seek to:
encourage housing and other activities in to highly-accessible locations
encourage retail activity and employment diversity along corridors and at centres
support housing in established areas along high capacity transport routes
improve amenity and public realm in key locations
develop transport interchanges.
These objectives are broadly consistent with MM. It is also likely that MM will assist with the
implementation of local policies (as well as regional and metropolitan).
In some specific locations, changes to local planning controls may be required in order to facilitate the
scale and nature of development commensurate with MM. This will occur as planning for future
development occurs, in conjunction with MM and in line with the Victorian Planning Provisions.
1.4
1.4.1
Commonwealth policy context
Council of Australian Governments
Victoria is not alone in meeting the challenges of a growing city. The Commonwealth Government
through the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) and Infrastructure Australia (IA) recognises
the importance of cities both for welfare of the population and for their contribution to the national
economy. The importance of cities in ensuring both quality of life and the national economic good has
been further supported by the release of the National Objectives and Criteria for Future Strategic
Planning of Capital Cities by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG, December 2009).
COAG’s objective is:
To ensure Australian cities are globally competitive, productive, sustainable, liveable and
socially inclusive and are well placed to meet future challenges and growth.
This objective is supported by nine criteria against which the appropriateness of city strategic planning
systems can be measured. The Victorian planning system is consistent with these criteria.
1.4.2
Infrastructure Australia strategic objectives
The Commonwealth has partnered with the Victorian Government to support the ongoing
development of the project through provision of development funding (for MM1). This Commonwealth
support has been the result of the project’s listing as a priority project by Infrastructure Australia (IA),
following their endorsement of the original strategic assessment. MM has been nominated as a
project of national significance not because of the scale of investment required but because of the
profound implications it has for Melbourne’s development and therefore the nation.
The Melbourne Metro project has been assessed against IA’s strategic objectives used to assess
proposals for Nation Building funding. These objectives are:
expand Australia’s productive capacity
increase Australia’s productivity
diversify Australia’s economic capabilities
build on Australia’s global competitive advantages
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develop our cities.
The project addresses all of these objectives. In particular, the need to ‘increase Australia’s
productivity’ and ‘develop our cities’ (the second and fifth IA objectives) are at the heart of the project,
by enabling a new urbanism thorough provision of a quality public transport system that provides a
viable alternative to the private car and provides accessibility to a range of employment opportunities
and higher order facilities and services. By increasing accessibility to a wider labour pool and better
connecting Melbourne’s knowledge economy, the project’s agglomeration and productivity benefits
are very significant.
IA’s recent State of Australian Cities (March 2010) report noted that:
While Australian cities perform relatively well in terms of quality of life and other social
issues, they are confronted by significant challenges including population growth and
demographic change, transport congestion, living affordability, infrastructure development,
productivity growth, climate change and ecological sustainability. Australian cities will need
to respond effectively to these challenges in order to sustain the high quality of life enjoyed
by urban communities into the future, and remain globally competitive. …………
………In meeting growing local, state and territory demands, the Australian Government,
however, must ensure that taxpayer funds are allocated to deliver improved living standards
and quality of life for all Australians, as well as the national economic good, rather than
satisfying particular local demands.
Infrastructure Australia has previously designated the MM1 project as ‘ready to proceed’ in the
Transforming our cities category, indicating that the project meets all IA criteria supported by robust
economic analysis and has robust delivery plans.
MM2 is included separately in IA’s pipeline of projects as a project of ‘real potential’ (ie initiatives
which clearly address a nationally significant issue or problem and there has been a considerable
amount of analysis of potential solutions).
Defining Melbourne Metro as a more cost-effective extension of MM1 means that it remains eligible
for ‘ready to proceed’ status.
1.4.3
Intergenerational Report 2010
The 2010 Intergenerational Report published by the Australian Government Treasury in January 2010
states that Australia faces a complex mix of long-term challenges — an ageing and growing
population, escalating pressures on the health system, and an environment vulnerable to climate
change.
Decisions taken in the near term will impact on the wellbeing of future generations. Productivityenhancing reforms, particularly through nation building infrastructure and improving the skills base,
will grow the economy, improve living standards, and partly offset the fiscal pressures of ageing. With
an ageing population, productivity growth is the key driver of future economic growth. Australia’s
future economic growth therefore relies largely on productivity growth, with population growth and
employment participation likely to be a less significant influence on economic growth in the future.
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1.5
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Summary of MM contribution to government policy and
strategy
MM has arisen to meet the challenges set by the urban growth envisaged in the Victoria Planning
Provisions and the need for an integrated and sustainable transport system to support an inclusive,
prosperous and environmentally responsible State, as enshrined in the Transport Integration Act. MM
will do this by increasing the level of accessibility to key places, linking people with jobs in an efficient
and effective manner.
MM will deliver jobs closer to where people live, create a pipeline of supply of dwellings in targeted
urban renewal sites to contribute to a sustainable urban form, and enhance accessibility to a range of
urban activities through sustainable means. These outcomes will support a refined metropolitan
structure which will ensure Melbourne retains its liveability and productivity.
By increasing the level of accessibility to places, MM (including Arden Urban Renewal precinct) will:
optimise urban renewal and redevelopment opportunities by creating environments where higher
density development can be delivered. This will include underutilised areas of inner Melbourne,
activity centres, and potentially other redevelopment sites along the rail corridor around new and
existing station sites
provide opportunities for new communities in growth corridors to be anchored around high
capacity and high frequency public transport, providing access to a range of locations and
activities within the metropolitan area and region
contribute to mixed use development extending out to the west of Melbourne where there is a
deficit of jobs and other activities by linking these areas with high capacity, high frequency
transport
broaden the activities which can be easily accessed by public transport, particularly for existing
and the substantial additional communities to be developed in Melbourne’s west and north.
Existing clusters of activities will be easier to access, whilst new clusters of activity will be
supported along the corridor
strengthen and expand the knowledge economy of inner Melbourne and CBD and catalyse an
urban activity corridor to link the central city towards the west, enabling faster growth in labour
productivity.
MM will play a pivotal role in increasing the connectivity between Footscray and the major institutions
and employment opportunities in central Melbourne, a major component of the agglomeration benefits
of this project. Connections will be enabled between central Melbourne, the western and south
eastern employment precincts, major educational and research institutions in Parkville and Monash
precincts and the Dandenong and Frankston activity centres, delivering significant productivity
benefits to Melbourne and Victoria.
MM is an enabler for the more efficient operation of the rail network, relieving the most critical
capacity constraint in the network and, in doing so, allowing more services to operate on the existing
tracks through the north and west of Melbourne and supporting the future extension of the network.
The process to develop the business case for MM strongly reflects the integration and sustainability
objectives and decision-making principles enshrined in the Transport Integration Act. Transport and
land use agencies have come together to ensure integrated and transparent decision making and a
triple bottom line assessment is fundamental to the evaluation of the project.
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The review of City of Melbourne’s Municipal Strategic Statement is taking MM as the largest single
change to the transport network. Through close working with DOT, City of Melbourne is ensuring that
its strategic plans best align with and leverage off this generational change.
MM addresses all of the IA objectives, particularly the ‘develop our cities’ and ‘increase Australia’s
productivity’ objectives, enabling a new urbanism through a quality, city-shaping public transport
system that provides a step-change in accessibility to employment and services. By increasing
accessibility to a wider labour pool and better connecting Melbourne’s knowledge economy, the
project’s agglomeration and productivity benefits are very significant. The 2010 Intergenerational
Report confirms that productivity is the fundamental driver of economic growth.
In summary, MM responds to the above policy imperatives by:
supporting urban renewal and development in the inner areas of Melbourne, enabling more
people to live closer to employment and recreation opportunities
supporting transit oriented development in the growing western suburbs of Melbourne and a
reduced travel footprint, by providing an enhanced rail system
enabling more people to travel by rail, which reduces cost of living and is a relatively low-impact
mode for mass transit travel to the inner areas
taking a transformational view to the development of the rail network, setting new benchmarks
regarding operational performance for future generations and environmentally sustainable design.
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2
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Describing the existing and future
situation
2.1
Overview
This section sets out the land use and transport context within which the need for and scope of MM
has been developed. All the evidence for the business need is provided in this section, which is then
summarised in Section 3.
Existing land use structure and transport networks in areas relevant to the project are described,
focusing particularly on inner Melbourne and the north-west of metropolitan Melbourne. The extent
and spatial distribution of population and employment growth envisaged over the next 20 years is
then presented. Recent trends in public transport patronage (particularly rail) are discussed, along
with the current operational performance of the rail system, and current problems of lack of capacity.
The section concludes with an assessment of the current performance of the rail network.
Melbourne is the nation’s fastest growing capital. Currently its population is four million people and is
expected to reach five million before 2030, more than a decade earlier than previously projected.
Most of Melbourne’s outward population growth is projected to occur in the north and west of the city,
with Melbourne’s west expected to nearly double by 2030. Growth in jobs and services in the medium
term is expected to be focused in the CBD and south-east, rather than in the north-west, which
already has lower than average job density.
Population growth, increasing rates of road congestion, petrol price rises and greater environmental
patronage awareness has caused a mode shift towards public transport. There has been an
unprecedented 70% growth in train patronage in the last decade and 50% in the last five years alone.
This has resulted in rail demand approaching the capacity of the network, particularly through North
Melbourne and around the City Loop. Only one track pair around the City Loop and between North
Melbourne and Flinders Street service all Northern Group services. This will be operating virtually at
capacity following completion of programmed initiatives. Richmond Station and access to the city
loop is similarly congested serving all lines in the Caulfield and Burnley Groups.
This lack of rail capacity and reliable rail performance will reduce the ability of employees to access
the major employment, service and education hubs of inner Melbourne and the south-east. It will also
impair employers’ access to a sufficiently diverse and deep pool of appropriately skilled employees. It
will also have an impact on the use of road capacity and hinder the efficient movement of freight.
The Victorian Government’s urban consolidation policy targets urban growth to occur in established
areas. There are significant opportunities to intensify inner urban development in North Melbourne but
higher density development in that area would lead to inefficiency in the transport system if it is not
served by high capacity public transport.
The congested state of the tram network and the growing importance of the knowledge economy
support the need to better service the key non-CBD centres of Parkville and St Kilda Road. These
centres are critical to the city’s growing knowledge economy and are served by congested tram
services on the St Kilda Road - Swanston Street corridor. This congestion highlights the need for two
of Melbourne’s more significant economic centres to be served by higher capacity public transport to
improve access and harness economic agglomeration benefits.
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2.2
2.2.1
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Business Case
Existing land use structure
Melbourne CBD and CBD fringe
Inner Melbourne comprises the local government areas of the cities of Melbourne, Port Phillip,
Stonnington and Yarra. This is a well developed and cosmopolitan urban area, the character of which
is summarised below. MM has the ability to enhance this area and underpin its further development
in a sensitive and appropriate way. Figure 2-1 shows the existing land use zones for the City of
Melbourne.
Figure 2-1: City of Melbourne existing land use zones
Inner Melbourne, particularly the Central Business District (CBD), forms the geographic, commercial,
employment and transport heart of the wider metropolitan area; there are over 750,000 workers and
visitors to the CBD each day, and this is projected to increase to over 1.2 million by 2030. The area is
largely divided into clear land use sectors with significant areas of parklands. The CBD is built on the
historic Hoddle Grid and now extends to the west and south to incorporate the mixed use suburbs of
Docklands and Southbank. It is within these suburbs that the major residential and employment
growth has occurred in recent years and where the greatest level of growth is predicted in the next
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decade. The precincts which are envisaged in the MSS review to have significant growth and change
are discussed and shown in section 1.3.1. These precincts align with MM.
Successive governments have allowed for and planned for the growth and expansion of central
Melbourne. Major initiatives included Southbank, Docklands and the Yarra cultural and sporting
precincts. This planning has not been limited to commercial activities, but also included cultural,
recreational, entertainment, sporting and institutional and educational facilities of state significance.
There has also been significant investment to ensure these activities also work at a human scale, for
example the inclusion of pedestrian and cycling infrastructure.
In the last 15 years, these activities have been complemented by significant efforts, particularly by
City of Melbourne, to attract housing. The central city is now effectively a self contained area in which
to work, rest and play.
As a consequence of these factors, the central city now extends from Melbourne University/Parkville
to St Kilda Junction and from the Sports and Entertainment Precinct to Docklands (Figure 2-2). This
central area is also complemented by significant metropolitan precincts at its edge: Lygon Street,
Bridge Road, Brunswick Street and Acland Street. In addition, a chain of parks and boulevards which
promote connections to south, east and north, and north-west has been developed. Complementary
commercial activity has spilled out of the central city to the inner east as far out as Hawthorn,
Camberwell and Malvern.
Figure 2-2: Inner city development past and future patterns
West of the CBD and Docklands is an extensive area currently dedicated to transport infrastructure
(port and rail) and industrial land uses. These current uses restrict movement and connections,
creating an effective barrier between the CBD and the Footscray CAD. This area includes the Port of
Melbourne and a freight and logistics precincts. It is predicted that by 2035, the Port of Melbourne,
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Australia’s premier container port, will be handling four times the number of containers that it does
today.
It is also evident that for a range of long-standing historical reasons, the central city activities have not
expanded towards the west. It appears that the historic constraints of swamps, noxious industry, port
and wasteland industrial activity have made locations such as Footscray ‘a bridge too far’ for higher
order investment and employment, despite Footscray being the same distance from the GPO as
St Kilda junction.
Major research, bio-tech and educational institutions are focused around Parkville and Carlton. To
the north and east of the CBD, the established areas of Parkville, Carlton, Fitzroy and East Melbourne
are characterised by heritage dwellings. To the northwest of the CBD, North Melbourne and
Kensington have predominantly small scale heritage residential uses and significant amounts of
industrial activities.
Employment corridors extend from the CBD along existing tram routes through inner Melbourne with
the most significant of these being along St Kilda Road to the south. Higher density residential and
commercial development along these corridors is being promoted as a means to more efficiently
utilise the city’s existing public transport infrastructure. This intensification of uses will provide a
greater diversity of employment, retail and entertainment opportunities as well as the ability to ‘live
more locally’ along existing public transport routes.
2.2.2
North-west metropolitan area
The northern and western parts of Melbourne have historically developed relatively slowly compared
to Melbourne’s east. This pattern of development is also reflected in public investment in transport
infrastructure. The current accessibility limitations in the west reflect the cumulative effect of this
historic slow growth and low investment in transport infrastructure. Figure 2-3 shows the planning
context for the north-west.
While the activities of a city are never equally dispersed, for some of the reasons described above,
the implications of this have greater significance as Melbourne moves from a population of four million
to five million and beyond. In particular:
the north-west has a very narrow employment base with very limited activities in the growth
knowledge sector
the north-west also has a considerably lower employment levels per capita compared to the
Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD), and also struggles to retain wealth, experiencing high levels
of escape expenditure for retail
when the spatial distribution of production potential of Melbourne is examined, the most
productive areas are biased to the east, with the majority of west not included.
While the overall region is growing and diversifying, its economic structure remains narrowly focused
and is defined by industrial, logistics and population driven sectors. There are few higher order
centres, institutions and other assets. Various service sectors, including advanced business services
and retail, remain poorly represented in the region. This profile reinforces the blue collar emphasis of
the population base. The lack of higher order jobs, services and education opportunities in the north
and west also means that the regions are heavily reliant on inner Melbourne for these activities.
Gentrification has recently taken hold in the inner western arc between the traditionally wealthy
Williamstown and Essendon, including Yarraville, Footscray, Kensington, Flemington and Ascot Vale.
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These areas are generally characterised by heritage dwellings, and high levels of amenity and
accessibility.
In the north-west, the inner areas (Brunswick, Ascot Vale and Moonee Ponds) and middle ring
suburbs (Coburg, Pascoe Vale and Glenroy) continue to experience gentrification with higher density
dwelling activity and higher order employment activities beginning to emerge. Major open space
networks, including Maribyrnong River, Royal Park, the Moonee Ponds Creek and various smaller
reserves, contribute to the high amenity and desirability of these suburbs.
Some port and industrial land uses remain, particularly the industrial node at Laverton-Derrimut which
is designated of state significance. The evolution of this node has been heavily influenced by the
Western Ring Road which stimulated significant transport and logistics activities in the region. Other
areas which do not have the same road accessibility benefits are currently underutilised, and
combined with other planned infrastructure projects, are likely to represent opportunities for urban
renewal.
Regional demand for housing over time was sufficient to support development ‘jumping’ the industrial
node to suburbanise areas including Altona and Sunshine. Sunshine is now a growing activity centre,
providing access to a range of retail goods and services and with opportunities to capitalise on the low
intensity of land use within its centre at present.
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Figure 2-3: North-west planning context
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Beyond the Western Ring Road are newer suburbs of Cairnlea, Caroline Springs and Sydenham.
These areas currently form the edge of the existing metropolitan area in the north-west, with the
satellite towns of Melton (west) and Sunbury (north-west) located approximately 10 kilometres from
the existing urban edge. Recent changes to Melbourne’s growth boundary will close the gap with
Melton over the next 25 years and will also link the north western and western growth corridors. This
will result in improved internal connections and a more cohesive and coherent region.
The Melbourne Airport and surrounds will remain a ‘non-urban’ area and the adjacent business park
is one of the most significant employment concentrations in Melbourne, along with the major shopping
centres.
To the south-west, the Werribee corridor comprises the established areas of Werribee and Hoppers
Crossing, including Werribee town centre and Werribee Plaza, an enclosed mall-based shopping
centre which accommodates a substantial proportion of the area’s retail and commercial floor-space.
New master-planned housing estates such as Sanctuary Lakes at Point Cook and Caroline Springs
have been created in the growth corridors and these have attracted a more skilled and higher income
population to parts of the region.
Newer northern growth suburbs such as Broadmeadows, Craigieburn and Roxburgh Park (and as far
north as Beveridge with recent growth boundary changes) are served by Broadmeadows Central
Activities District. This is located in the southern area of this linear-based growth corridor.
2.2.3
South-east metropolitan area
The current (2011) estimated resident population of Melbourne’s south-east region is 1.6 million.
The Casey-Cardinia growth area is limited from continued outward expansion by both physical and
environmental constraints to growth, including the Koo Wee Rup swamp and floodplain, the foothills
of the Dandenong Ranges, and the Western Port ‘Ramsar’ wetlands. Long standing, bipartisan,
Government policy prevents expansion of areas set aside for urban development in the Mornington
Peninsula.
Analysis of household formation in the east and south-east regions demonstrates that historically new
households and upgrading households (second home buyers) have tended to move towards the
fringe growth corridors. When the eastern growth areas closed down in the 1990s, new households
form that region moved to the south-east.
The Casey-Cardinia growth corridor contains the only significant areas of broad-hectare development
land available in the east and south-east of Melbourne. Despite the prospect of diminishing broadhectare land supply, there will be ongoing demand for additional housing in the region, which if not
matched with supply, will introduce the option of locating in communities further east in Gippsland,
such as Warragul, La Trobe Valley, and Leongatha, or in the Mornington Peninsula. The Gippsland
communities are further from major sources of employment and locating there will incur unaffordable
commuting costs. The region outside the growth corridor has limited ability to absorb significant
amounts of new housing.
Given the historical household formation patterns of the area, it is unlikely that people will contemplate
moving to other regions of Melbourne.
Unlike the north-west, the inner and middle parts of the south-east corridor enjoy relatively good
employment accessibility. Monash is home to a knowledge industry precinct which includes Monash
University (Caulfield and Clayton), the Synchrotron and other R&D organisations, Telstra, CSIRO and
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other technology based firms. Additional knowledge based jobs can therefore be realistically attracted
to the area due to the high proportion of white collar employees living in the south-east, as well being
the locus of knowledge based businesses (including advanced service industries and advanced
manufacturing) which are already developing around Monash University.
The development trends to date suggest that the area between Caulfield and Monash is potentially
capable of attracting knowledge based employment that would benefit from fast links to the CBD. This
is in great part due to the sum of previous public and private investments in facilities and services
such as health, education, transport, recreation, civic and amenity many of which are of very high
quality and standing (such as Monash University).
Without investment in infrastructure which maintains accessibility to the south east, congestion is
likely to be a key influence:
“The Monash University will be heavily impacted by congestion with a very significant contraction in
the accessibility currently enjoyed by that area. This will impact on the firms located in the area in
terms of their labour productivity performance. Workers travelling in from the growth areas to the
Monash region will also be faced with extended travel times. At this point there are no proposed
4
transport projects which would alleviate the future congestion surrounding the Monash area.”
In addition to the knowledge industry precinct around Monash University, there is a significant
logistics and manufacturing centre at Dandenong South, a major employment area developing in
Cardinia, and a large industrial area with potential for increased levels of port associated activity
around the Port of Hastings (on Westernport Bay). The Port of Hastings is being planned for
development into Melbourne’s second container port in the medium term. These industrial and port
areas have considerable impact on the level of freight movement between the south east and the rest
of Melbourne as well as being notable employment locations.
Other significant employment locations in the south east include:
-
Frankston Activity Area
-
Springvale Major Activity Centre
-
Dandenong South Industrial Area
-
Moorabbin Airport.
While many sectors such as manufacturing require strategic allocations of land across the city,
continued strong growth in employment in the inner city and adjacent areas is expected into the
future. This is because Melbourne has developed rapidly into a post-industrial economy in which
agglomeration economies help drive firm efficiencies in knowledge based sectors.
4
SGS Economics & Planning, December 2010
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2.3
2.3.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Existing transport context
Introduction
The rapidly growing suburbs in Melbourne’s west and outer south-east suffer from the impacts of a
less well developed transport network than elsewhere in the metropolitan area and hence the need for
significant enhancement. The middle and inner south-east has a much more established and denser
development pattern and supporting transport network. However it suffers from significant congestion
levels.
Inner Melbourne is the hub of the Melbourne metropolitan transport network, with the public transport
network focused around the CBD, key radial motorways connecting to and through the central area
and strategic freight links focused around the Port of Melbourne.
The transport network is experiencing strong growth in traffic across the metropolitan area. In
particular, the key corridors of the M1 (West Gate Freeway-Monash Freeway), North Melbourne and
Dandenong rail corridors experience significant congestion and no viable alternatives to these
corridors currently exist. The economic cost of congestion in Victoria is as much as $2.6 billion per
year (in 2007) and this could double within 15 years.
2.3.2
Public transport
5
Metropolitan train lines are currently assembled into four groups serving distinct geographical areas:
Northern (incorporating Werribee, Williamstown, Sydenham, Craigieburn and Upfield lines in the
north and west)
Clifton Hill (incorporating Hurstbridge and Epping lines in the north-east)
Burnley (incorporating Lilydale, Belgrave, Alamein and Glen Waverley lines in the east)
Caulfield (incorporating Pakenham, Cranbourne, Frankston and Sandringham lines in the
south-east).
Figure 2-4 shows the network in the inner area.
5
A fifth group known as the Cross-City Group comprising Werribee, Williamstown, Frankston and Sandringham line services
was established in May 2011 as part of the implementation of a new greenfields timetable.
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Figure 2-4: Inner Melbourne public transport network
The outer areas of the north-west (Sunbury, Bacchus Marsh, Melton, Wallan) and south-east
(Warragul, LaTrobe Valley) regions are also served by V/Line regional services. The line from
Werribee in the south west of the region (including the Altona Loop) connects with the line from
Williamstown at Newport. The line from Sydenham passes through Sunshine and joins the Werribee
and Williamstown lines at Footscray. Craigieburn and Upfield lines to the north converge with other
Northern Group lines at North Melbourne. Work is currently underway to electrify and extend the
Sydenham line to Sunbury. All these train lines currently converge at North Melbourne, onto two track
pairs leading into the CBD. The four lines of the Caulfield Group progressively converge along the
Dandenong Rail Corridor, also joining the Burnley Group’s four lines at Richmond. This causes
unreliability and is a constraint on increasing the numbers of train services in the face of growing
demand.
Regional (V/Line) passenger services currently share tracks with metropolitan services as follows:
a. Sydenham to North Melbourne (Bendigo and Sunbury, Echuca and Swan Hill)
b. Sunshine to North Melbourne (Bacchus Marsh, Ballarat and Ararat)
c. Werribee to North Melbourne (Geelong and Warrnambool)
d. Craigieburn to North Melbourne (Seymour and Shepparton)
e. Pakenham to Southern Cross (Traralgon and Bairnsdale).
This is a further cause of unreliability and further constraint on increasing metropolitan train services.
The Regional Rail Link project will segregate V/Line services and eliminate the track sharing in a, b
and c above. A network of bus routes and limited tram routes also serve the north-west area.
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Inner Melbourne, particularly the CBD, is served by all train lines and all but three of the
27 metropolitan tram routes. Significant radial trunk bus services also connect the CBD to areas that
are not directly served by rail, such as Doncaster, complemented by local cross-town routes including
a high frequency bus service from North Melbourne provides access to Parkville and Melbourne
University.
Melbourne’s tram network has developed since 1885 into a $10 billon 247 kilometre double-track
network – the largest in the world. The tram network consists of a diverse mix of 27 routes providing
comprehensive network coverage across most of the 300 square kilometres of inner Melbourne, nine
of which are heavily concentrated on the St Kilda Road/Swanston Street corridor. St Kilda Road is the
spine of Melbourne’s tram network. With trams operating at headways of less than one minute in the
peak hour, this is the world’s busiest tram corridor. It is currently operating close to capacity.
Across the network average tram trip lengths are relatively short (in the order of 3–5 kilometres) with
work related trips only accounting for one in three trips.
2.3.3
Road
The north-west region is serviced by radial freeway connections to Geelong (Princes Freeway),
Bacchus Marsh/Ballarat (Western Freeway), Bendigo (Calder Freeway) and Craigieburn/Seymour
(Hume Freeway), as well as the Tullamarine Freeway serving the airport. These are linked by the
Western Ring Road. Inside the Ring Road, City Link and the Westgate Freeway provide access to
Inner Melbourne, the CBD and connect to the Monash Freeway providing access to the south and
east of Melbourne.
The south-east is serviced by the Monash Freeway and Princes Highway (Dandenong Road), which
traverses a well developed grid of arterial roads. Ten of these arterials form level crossings on the
Dandenong Rail Corridor between Caulfield and Dandenong, which have now become a constraint on
increasing train frequencies.
Inner Melbourne is served by high capacity arterial roads including Hoddle Street, Flemington Road,
Dynon Road, Victoria Parade, St Kilda Road, Kings Way and Royal Parade. Many of these main
roads carry both trams and buses as well as private vehicles, bicycles and freight vehicles.
Congestion on the major radial routes that connect the south-east and west to inner Melbourne and
the east is a particular concern, particularly for freight and business travel, especially given the
dependence on a small number of routes that cross the Maribyrnong River. These concerns gave
rise to the East West Link Needs Analysis (EWLNA) Study (The Eddington Report) and the proposal
for a new road connecting the Western Ring Road and the Eastern Freeway. The MM will provide an
additional transport link from the west into central Melbourne, helping to address this vulnerability.
2.3.4
Cycling and walking
Central Melbourne is characterised by very high pedestrian volumes, particularly in the CBD.
Swanston Street, for example caters for as many as 80,000 pedestrians per day. The presence of so
many people on the street creates a vibrant, active and economically healthy city. However it also
means that careful planning is needed so that the interfaces between pedestrians and other transport
modes are safe and efficient. For example, MM will result in more people entering and leaving
stations, crossing roads and linking to other modes such as tram, bus and bicycle.
High density bicycle infrastructure is provided in inner Melbourne compared to other parts of the
metropolitan area, and is well utilised, with the number of cyclists increasing significantly in recent
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years. In March of 2008, bicycles accounted for more than 9% of peak hour vehicle movements into
the Melbourne CBD. Growth in cycling is expected to continue.
2.3.5
Freight and logistics
The size of Melbourne’s freight task is increasing rapidly – and has been growing at a faster rate than
the economy and the population. Most of this freight is moved by road, and because a large share of
Victoria’s road freight transport relies on links through the metropolitan area, road congestion is a
significant issue. The city faces considerable challenges in reducing the impact of traffic congestion
on the freight task and ensuring that freight moves around Melbourne as efficiently as possible.
Freight traffic in Melbourne will continue to be concentrated around three key areas: the Port of
Melbourne and related industrial areas, the north, west and north-western corridor along the Western
Ring Road and around Somerton, and the south and south-eastern corridor, centred on Dandenong.
Freight hubs are becoming an important element in the metropolitan freight task and are increasingly
recognised as playing a key role in reducing congestion and managing the growing freight task. In
Melbourne, such centres are developing in and around Somerton and in Altona, Spotswood, the
Dynon precinct, Swanson Dock and Dandenong.
The Port of Melbourne is Australia’s leading container port and one of Victoria’s most important
assets – contributing more than $5.4 billion to the state’s economy each year and directly providing
jobs for more than 18,000 people. While it is unlikely that the size of the port will greatly exceed the
current 500 hectares by 2035, there will be significant increases in trade volumes of containers, Bass
Strait trade, new motor vehicles and bulk products. The Port of Hastings south of Dandenong is
planned to become Melbourne’s second container port in the future, which will change the patterns of
freight movement in Melbourne. It may cause additional pressures on the Monash Freeway and
Dandenong Rail Corridors.
Overall, around 80% of freight moving into the port is transported by road, generating around
1.2 million truck visits to the port each year. This has particular implications for local streets near the
port, the West Gate Bridge and the West Gate Freeway and associated road links to industrial areas
and logistics facilities in the west. Even allowing for existing initiatives, the significant growth in the
freight task will mean that truck traffic will still continue to grow significantly.
Managing the growth in urban freight – and the strong growth in trade through the Port of Melbourne –
raises many challenges for the city and its transport network. Among the issues holding back greater
freight efficiency in Melbourne are congestion along key freight routes, especially the M1 and the
Western Ring Road.
The Eddington Report paid particular attention to addressing the issues raised. Whilst the focus of
the team was on ways to improve the mode share for rail freight, it was noted that:
“Without action taken to improve management of the freight task, industry will face significant
additional costs from increased travel times and unreliable travel”.
MM has an important role in easing congestion, especially in inner Melbourne and more specifically in
the vicinity of the Port of Melbourne, by attracting car users which will release road space for trucks
and directly assist in managing the on-going freight task and support productivity.
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2.4
2.4.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Population growth and housing
Metropolitan growth
Melbourne and Victoria are growing very quickly, with the State currently experiencing its third
population boom – bigger than the post-war migration boom and bigger than the Gold Rush of the
1850s. Over 2008/09 alone, Melbourne’s population grew by about 93,500 people (almost 1,800
people per week). Victoria in Future 2011 projections indicate that between now and 2031,
metropolitan Melbourne‘s population will grow by 1.3 million people to over 5.4 million. VIF2011
estimates that Melbourne‘s population will reach six million before 2040 at an average growth rate of
1.2% per annum.
To accommodate this growth, it is estimated that 612,000 additional dwellings will be needed between
now and 2031, with around half in Melbourne’s established suburbs and half in Melbourne’s growth
corridors. In total, this means that an average of around 30,000 dwellings will have to be constructed
every year. Growth corridors have been designated in the west (Wyndham, Melton), north (Hume,
Whittlesea) and south-east (Cardinia and Casey). Within the three growth corridors it is projected
(Victoria In Future 2011) that the north and west growth corridors will accommodate 70% of new
dwellings in all growth corridors, as outlined in Table 2-1.
Table 2-1: Projected distribution of dwellings in growth corridors: 2010–2031
Areas
Existing
Dwellings
(2010)
Projected
Dwellings
(2031)
Established areas
1,273,000
1,595,000
Growth corridors
314,000
604,000
South-east
112,000
198,000
North
109,000
195,000
West
93,000
211,000
1,587,000
2,199,000
Total
Distribution of
New Dwellings
(2010–2031)
322,000
(53%)
290,000
(47%)
86,000
(14%)
86,000
(14%)
118,000
(19%)
612,000
Growth
2010-2031
25%
92%
77%
79%
127%
39%
Outside of the growth corridors, VIF2011 predicts that different parts of Melbourne will experience
different population growth patterns. In particular, the middle suburbs will experience moderate rates
of growth through residential infill developments; while the inner city will experience strong growth,
driven by the trend for young people, as well as knowledge and specialised service workers, to be
attracted to the inner area. These are shown in Figure 2-5.
The whole south-east corridor is projected to grow by more than 600,000 people or 40% to over 2.2
million people by 2046. Almost half (46%) of this growth is expected to occur in the Casey and
Cardinia municipalities (or growth corridors), with Greater Dandenong and Kingston account for a
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further 17%. This growth is expected to be housed in around 300,000 new dwellings across the
region, 40% of which is expected to be accounted for in the growth corridor.
Figure 2-5: Projected growth by municipality (Victoria in Future 2011)
Population Change
.
2010 to 2031
200,000
100,000
20,000
-20,000
-100,000
-200,000
2.4.2
Growth corridors
MM focuses on expanding rail capacity to the lines that service the growth corridors. It is estimated
that Melbourne’s south-east growth corridors will have land available for less than 20 years of
projected growth. As a result, these growth corridors which feed demand to the Dandenong rail
corridor are likely to play a limited role in accommodating outer urban growth after 2026, though the
corridor is currently congested – the potential for capacity increases are being examined as part of a
separate business case. The north and west growth corridors will become increasingly a focus of
Melbourne’s growth, and will continue to drive demand and therefore the need for additional
infrastructure on the Northern Group.
2.4.3
Middle suburbs
As well as the growth corridors in the northern and western parts of Melbourne, the established areas
will also need to accommodate additional dwelling and population growth. Activity centre locations,
as well as brown-field redevelopment opportunities, will need to be identified and planned in a manner
which reflects their important roles in providing a pipeline of dwelling supply for the city, and help
avoid the need for further expansion of Melbourne’s urban footprint. Central Activities Areas and
Principal and Major Activity areas will all play a role in accommodating such growth, as well as other
highly accessible locations.
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2.4.4
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Inner Melbourne
While a large proportion of the catchment for MM lies in Melbourne’s south-east, north and west,
proposed new stations in the inner area will have a role in supporting the predicted substantial growth
in inner city residential development and enabling access to this development from the wider
metropolitan area.
Inner Melbourne, which includes the municipalities of Melbourne, Yarra, Stonnington and Port Phillip,
is expected in VIF2011 to grow by around 160,000 to more than 530,000 by 2031. Demand for inner
urban development and consolidation is predicted to remain strong. It will be a major growth area in
its own right, accommodating around 12% of total metropolitan population growth.
Figure 2-6 provides a spatial distribution by suburb of projected growth for the City of Melbourne for
the 15 year period to 2026 (assuming no government intervention to stimulate development). Of
particular significance to MM, are the additional 23,500 residents projected in the CBD and
Southbank.
The built form that is expected with these developments is likely to shape the demographics of the
population. The majority of new dwellings that are expected to be built in this period are apartments,
many of which are relatively small in nature (one and two bedroom). The apartment market has been
dominated by young singles, couples and students. Docklands is also expected to attract some older
households.
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Figure 2-6: City of Melbourne population growth projections by suburb (no intervention)
Source: City of Melbourne
2.5
2.5.1
Industry and employment
Metropolitan Melbourne
The distribution, scale and nature of industry and employment have significant impacts on the city,
metropolitan area and state economy. Providing opportunities where firms can establish, expand and
diversify is a key role for government in contributing to a productive economy which can support our
growing and ageing population. In addition to having broad economic benefits, it is important that jobs
and people are well linked. This provides people with wider choice and opportunity, contributing to
better matches between jobs and skills, as well as limiting time spent travelling to access
employment.
These two facets of industry and employment will be addressed in this section – the changing nature
of employment and the changing spatial distribution of employment.
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Changes in employment by industry
Melbourne has historically grown as a large industrial city with a strong manufacturing sector;
however globalisation and trade deregulation have had significant implications for the employment
profiles of many cities, including Melbourne. Productivity and employment growth trends indicate that
the transition towards the services sector will continue, and these sectors will play increasingly
important roles in both the scale of job growth (refer Figure 2-7) as well as the level of productivity
generated by the economy. Providing for service based industries is therefore central to the future
economic growth and productivity of Melbourne and Australia.
Figure 2-7: Projected change in employment by industry (2006-2031)
Spatial preferences of the service sector
Service-based industries tend to cluster together because of the productivity benefits of proximity
(known as agglomeration). These benefits include better opportunities to build face-to-face
relationships and informal sharing of knowledge. This contributes to improved economies of scale and
scope, access to a deep and diverse pool of clients and skilled labour, technological and knowledge
transfer and innovation. Such interactions increase the productivity of companies and ultimately the
aggregate economic performance at a metropolitan, state and national level.
Government has played a significant role in providing opportunities for this sector to grow on the
fringe of the CBD through establishing the preconditions for major private sector investment (Figure
2-2). This has included tram, road and public realm investment in both Southbank and Docklands,
and the subsequent plentiful supply of relatively inexpensive land for commercial development. Whilst
these areas are readily accepted as new parts of the central city area of Melbourne, it is not
necessarily the case that all cities are able to provide significant quantities of supply in such prime
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locations. For example Sydney CBD is much more constrained and has not been able to achieve the
same outcome.
The sectors which benefit most from agglomeration show a high elasticity with respect to Effective
Job Density (EJD). The level of employment relative to the time taken by various modes to gain
access to that employment has been used to asses the EJD of existing areas. Figure 2-8 presents
the SLA level EJD pattern for Melbourne. Industries such as Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants
and Personal Services show particular affinity with EJD, however, these are not necessarily the
industries which will drive Victoria’s future prosperity. Key growth industries for Victoria are the
Property & Business Services and Finance & Insurance. These are also large sectors in Melbourne’s
economy. These industries are also positively correlated with EJD and benefit from increased
densities of commercial activity and/or improved transport links. The relationship between
agglomeration, industry size and growth is shown in Figure 2-8.
The Hoddle Grid in the CBD has historically been the area with the highest EJD and therefore
provided opportunities for these higher order activities to co-locate for their mutual benefit and
subsequently expanded to St Kilda Road. The Parkville precinct, due to its knowledge industries, now
also plays a role in accommodating such organisations and activities.
Major government
interventions have seen remnant industrial areas in Southbank and Docklands transform. The
attractiveness of these locations is easily explained by the map of Melbourne’s existing EJD
(Figure 2-9).
Whilst the inner commercial core (as defined by the Hoddle Grid, Southbank, Docklands and St Kilda
Road) will always retain some capacity to accommodate additional office and employment
investment, experience with locations such as Southbank and Docklands indicates that stimulating
such activity in new locations plays an important role in economic growth within a city. There is a key
role for government to create locations where the private sector can plan, deliver and invest to provide
employment opportunities.
Traditionally, Melbourne’s development has seen non-CBD jobs gravitate to the south-east in an area
roughly encompassed by a triangle between the CBD, Ringwood and Dandenong. This area was
generally accessible to the historical development corridors of Melbourne’s south-east.
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Figure 2-8: Agglomeration elasticity, industry size and industry growth, Melbourne
Figure 2-9: Melbourne effective job density, 2007-08
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Only certain areas in inner Melbourne, however, are capable of supporting new investment and
activity. These locations are largely determined by the market. Commercial investment choices are
strongly guided by historic ones, so it is likely that a large proportion of these job types will continue to
locate in areas that exhibit similar characteristics to that of the existing commercial core: that is, areas
of high EJD whether this is due to existing development or high transport accessibility. It is therefore
critical that Government identify locations where latent demand for such activities is present and focus
resources on activating such opportunities. Ultimately, this will result in further agglomeration of
employment, generating productivity benefits for the economy and contributing to retaining
competitiveness.
Ongoing congestion on the transport network also significantly impedes labour productivity,
particularly in the knowledge-intensive inner areas. Melbourne’s productivity growth has been falling
in recent years, in part due to increased congestion on its transport system (Figure 2-10). Productivity
is the cornerstone of future economic growth – accessibility of knowledge jobs improves business to
business interaction and the ability to attract more productive jobs to inner Melbourne, which in turn
drives agglomeration benefits and hence labour productivity. Business productivity is also affected by
efficiency of freight movement, which is strongly influenced by congestion.
Figure 2-10: Productivity Growth – Melbourne and Australia
Significant inner city employment growth in recent years has meant that employment in the City of
Melbourne has now reached 500,000, more than doubling in the past two decades. This growth has
been fuelled by the availability of competitively-priced inner city land in Docklands and Southbank and
has meant a greater diversity of businesses have been able to cluster in the city, driving more
demand, productivity growth and more productive jobs. The city’s amenity and vibrancy, driven in part
by residential growth in the CBD, has also been a key driver of attracting talent to the city and
informing business expansion decisions. Firms will continue to seek to capitalise on the innovation
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opportunities and agglomeration economies provided by the density of economic activity in central
Melbourne.
Demand for employment in this area is therefore expected to continue to grow strongly so long as the
central city retains it vitality, is accessible by public transport and land is available for commercial
development (refer Figure 2-11). The Melbourne Metro is therefore a key underpinning of economic
agglomeration, productivity and more productive jobs, given existing rail services will be over-crowded
in the future without MM, potentially resulting in knowledge jobs locating elsewhere (see breakout box
for Pearson case study). If service-based jobs, which benefit from agglomerating, were located
outside the central area, then productivity and international competitiveness would be reduced.
Rapid population growth in outer south-east, north and west growth corridors is expected to continue
without commensurate growth in employment in those regions, further exacerbating the already
significant geographic imbalance between population and employment growth. This will increase
cross-town travel between the north-west and south-east and radial travel to access central
Melbourne, intensifying growing congestion and unreliability on Melbourne’s public transport network.
Access from the outer north, west and south-east to economic activities in central Melbourne and
inner east is constrained by network capacity.
Figure 2-11: Forecast Spatial Changes in Employment (2006 – 2031)
It is clear that there is also an increasing need to better service the key knowledge economy centres
of Parkville and St Kilda Road. These areas are critical to the city’s economy, are and becoming part
of Melbourne’s central area and are continuing to grow. They are served by tram services on the St
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Kilda Road – Swanston Street corridor, one of the world’s busiest tram corridors and which continues
to experience strong growth. Services are nearing capacity and there is limited scope to provide
services. This congestion highlights the need for two of Melbourne’s more significant economic
centres to be served by higher capacity
public transport to improve access and
PEARSON GETS TO THE HEART OF IT
harness economic agglomeration benefits.
Dionne Higgins scoured Melbourne’s inner suburbs to find
2.5.2
North-west
Those living in Melbourne’s north and west
currently have limited access to and choices
in employment.
Current projections of
employment indicate that that this trend will
continue.
The northern and western
municipalities in Melbourne are expected to
accommodate approximately 144,000 jobs
over the next 20 years and 203,000 over the
next 30 years. This represents only 23% of
employment growth in the metropolitan area,
compared to the 36% of new dwellings
projected to be located in the region over the
2006-2026 period. The manufacturing and
transport industries in the west which will
play a significant role in the provision of
employment are characterised by low
employment densities and are generally
lower skilled, resulting in lower levels of
wealth within the working population. Such
a narrow employment profile also has a
higher degree of risk; should reductions
occur in these sectors, there are limited
other sectors to support the population.
These areas are heavily reliant on inner
Melbourne for access to a greater diversity
in jobs, hence providing access to the major
concentration of jobs within central
Melbourne is critical.
a new head office for Pearson Australia. The publishing
group’s chief operating officer wanted to bring together staff
from the main office in suburban Camberwell and another
facility in Port Melbourne.
She eventually settled on a refitted historic warehouse at
Docklands, and says attracting talent and the site’s
proximity to other businesses were key reasons behind the
decision.
When the company moved from Ringwood to Camberwell
10 years ago there was a noticeable shift in the talent on
offer. “They found a significant increase in the kinds of
people they were able to attract into the business,” she
says. “We’re expecting the same thing.”
A survey of Pearson staff revealed they came from all parts
of Melbourne and were increasingly using public transport.
The best way to provide them, and prospective employees
with an easy commute was to head for the heart of
Melbourne’s transport system.
“In the end that building and that location won us,” Higgins
says. “It’s right near Southern Cross (train station), it’s near
bike paths, it’s near trams, it’s near freeway exits.”
She concedes the purpose-built facility will cost more, but
Melbourne at least has lower rents than in other cities, such
as Sydney, where Pearson has offices in Frenchs Forest
and Surry Hills.
“There’s also a bit of a media hub down there,” Higgins
says.
Footscray CAD employment is currently
Pearson joins Fairfax Media, Channel 7 and the Nine
around 7000 and is projected to double by
Network in Docklands.
2046 (exhibiting a similar trajectory to
nd
Australian Financial Review, 22 September 2011
Dandenong CAD). Broadmeadows CAD’s
short to medium term employment growth is
not projected to be significant; noting that nearby Moonee Ponds PAC is likely to be a more attractive
location for employment given its success.
2.5.3
South-east
The Caulfield Rail Group directly serves an area that makes up about half of Melbourne’s GMP and
9% of Australia’s GDP (includes Melbourne CBD/ LGA). In conjunction with the Monash Freeway and
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Princes Highway, the Dandenong Rail Corridor serves as the transport backbone to south east
Melbourne.
Around half of all new dwellings in the south-east are expected to be located in the Casey/Cardinia
growth area, and by the mid 2020s over half a million people will be living south of Dandenong.
Growth in jobs and services in these already under-serviced areas is not expected to keep pace with
population growth, and many new residents locating to the outer growth corridors will need to travel to
the CBD and inner south east to access employment, education and other services. Unlike other
areas of the rail network, there are numerous major centres of population, education and employment
located along the corridor. These include major shopping destinations at South Yarra and Oakleigh
(Chadstone), Monash University campuses at Clayton and Caulfield, and clusters of
technology/innovation and manufacturing organisations such as Telstra, CSIRO, and the Australian
Synchrotron in the Monash area.
The south east already has a strong presence of “knowledge” based employment, and is also home
to a highly skilled workforce, with 44% of existing residents having a bachelor degree compared to
29% nationally. An increasing number of new service-based jobs are expected to locate to the inner
south-east and destinations along the corridor, building off the corridor’s strong economic base.
These residents, particularly those employed in service industries, will drive demand for rail travel for
access to employment in the CBD and inner south east.
2.5.4
Parkville precinct
Parkville is a premier precinct in a national and international context for education, research, and
health care. It is home to the Royal Melbourne, Royal Women’s and Royal Children’s Hospitals, the
University of Melbourne, the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, the Ludwig Institute
for Cancer Research, as well as a host of other research institutes and facilities. The sheer number
of life sciences research facilities and the comprehensive breadth of bioscience disciplines, is without
parallel in the southern hemisphere and is one of the few such concentrations of research excellence
worldwide.
Collectively, institutions in the precinct manage an annual research budget of $1.3 billion and engage
over 10,000 research staff and post graduate students. They have secured 26% of the National
Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) funding (part of the 41% of NHMRC funding
attracted to the State of Victoria) and created and commercialised numerous medical innovations,
including the bionic ear, colony stimulating factors, retinal imaging, discovery of Rotavirus, vaccines,
diagnostics, microsurgical instruments and antibiotics.
Building on this success, there has been recent and ongoing investment approaching $5 billion
around the Parkville Precinct to augment and construct new research infrastructure, build capabilities
in ICT as it pertains to the sciences and bring new partners into the Precinct. These investments
significantly expand the precinct’s capabilities to perform world-class research and are expected to
transform the precinct into the key southern hemisphere hub for the generation, storage, interrogation
and exchange of life sciences data and a major international player in health care, research and
training.
These investments include the new:
Neurosciences facility under construction in Royal Parade will be a hub for the Howard Florey
Institute, the Mental Health Research Institute and neuroscience-related University research
(operational in 2011)
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world-class Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre (to be built by 2015)
Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity
$100 million Victorian Life Sciences Computational Facility will give the precinct unequalled
computer capability in the life sciences
$250 million Royal Women’s Hospital (opened in 2008).
Synergies and opportunities evolve constantly from the co-location of large numbers of high quality,
researchers and clinicians in the precinct in the faculties, hospitals, research institutes and specialist
medical practices. The centralised position of the Parkville precinct, adjacent to Melbourne CBD,
enables the precinct to take advantage of industry savvy, other tertiary institutions such as the RMIT
University, public transport accessibility, quality inner city housing, and a rich cultural and intellectual
environment.
The Parkville and Carlton area is also the focus of a number of major educational institutions,
including the University of Melbourne and RMIT University, which generate significant economic
activity for the nation. The universities and research institutes are expected to continue to develop
and expand around these existing nodes, continuing to draw users from across not only the wider
metropolitan area but also across the state, the nation and internationally.
Parkville employment is projected to grow steadily from around 14,000 currently to 19,000 in 2031.
The Parkville precinct is served by a series of north-south tram routes, including those that run via
Swanston Street and Elizabeth Street. It is not currently serviced by rail, however the southern part of
the precinct falls within the walking catchment of Melbourne Central station.
2.5.5
North Melbourne
North Melbourne is located immediately north of the Hoddle grid, and separated by North Melbourne
Station and the Northern Group lines from the neighbouring Docklands and E-gate site to the south
(Figure 2-3). The suburb of North Melbourne is characterised by a mix of residential and industrial
activities (on the western edge). VicTrack land in the south of the suburb accommodates rail stabling
and concrete batching plants and the area is surrounded by light industrial uses. Many of these
premises are in poor condition, offering opportunity for renewal.
The main retail and commercial area is centred on Errol Street. Errol Street also accommodates a
number of health and community facilities, and is an important centre for provision of professional
services. A tram service along Errol Street provides access to the city via Elizabeth Street, while
North Melbourne station provides rail access to the inner area.
2.5.6
Southbank and St Kilda Road
Southbank and St Kilda Road have undergone significant transformation in the past two decades.
The precinct is a focus for a number of business service industries, and is host to software, creative,
design, engineering and logistics firms. Companies such as Fosters, IBM, Herald-Sun and Exxon–
Mobil have now been established in Southbank.
Approximately 10,000 further education placements are located along St Kilda Road, offered by
private providers. Higher education is the fastest growing part of the education sector, with the
number of places expected to double in 10 years.
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Victoria’s premier arts precinct is situated around the northern end of St Kilda Road, including the Arts
Centre, the National Gallery of Victoria and the Victorian College of the Arts. In recent times, this
precinct has extended to include Sturt Street and the development of stronger links between the
St Kilda Road institutions and those in Sturt Street is a key priority for the enhancement of the
precinct.
The Southbank/St Kilda Road precinct is linked to the CBD by the St Kilda Road, Queensbridge and
Clarendon Street trams. Two bridges exclusively for pedestrians and cyclists are also available – one
of which provides direct access to Flinders Street Station.
2.5.7
Port & East- West Corridor Framework
The EWLNA report highlighted the many advantages of reconceptualising the boundaries of the CBD
in the port and inner west. Integration between Footscray and the CBD would ensure that the inner
west shares in the opportunities and benefits being generated by the central city’s growing and
changing economy. This approach would give Footscray the potential to leverage off its proximity to
the central city and reinvigorate the inner west (with spin-off effects for the west more generally) by
shifting away from the area’s traditional reliance on manufacturing, and rebalance Melbourne’s
geography of opportunity. This is an important part of the rationale for MM.
A process was therefore initiated in 2009 to develop the Conceptual Framework Plan for the Port and
Inner West precinct, now known as the “Port and East-West Corridor”.
The framework plan was a significant collaborative effort involving various divisions and agencies of
DOT including Freight Logistics & Marine, VicRoads, Linking Melbourne Authority, Port of Melbourne
Corporation together with the Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD). This
has established a framework for infrastructure investment in the Port and East-West corridor for the
State and Federal Governments. This will in turn provide greater certainty for the private sector to
invest in infrastructure in the Port precinct. Its high level objectives are to
support Australia’s trade growth and prosperity through:
>
efficient port and freight systems
>
extending capital city knowledge economy to the west
facilitate integrated planning and delivery of transport and land use initiatives
capitalise on opportunities in inner west to progress Commonwealth and State infrastructure and
planning policy objectives and maximise funding opportunities.
The plan facilitates infrastructure planning in the area, particularly for several of Victoria’s major
transport infrastructure projects, notably the East-West Link, Regional Rail Link, MM and a new
precinct to accommodate port-related freight and logistics activities. It will outline how the sequencing
of projects will influence the availability of land at what time and provide direction on future land uses.
The framework identifies the national economic value of these projects – individually and collectively,
defines the footprint of each project, demonstrate how they will be sequenced and quantify how they
will unlock increased trade capacity, jobs growth and urban development.
The framework to date has identified the functional mix required in this precinct to fulfil Victoria’s
planning and economic policies (ie port, freight and logistics, east-west links and mixed use,
employment and activity corridors). The process confirmed that these land uses can be
accommodated in the precinct.
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Decentralisation of non port-related freight activities from the Dynon precinct and redevelopment into
a linked, urban activity corridor helps to overcome the barrier between the CBD and Melbourne’s west
and extends capital city functions and the knowledge economy to the west, thereby access to higher
order jobs and increasing human capital development in the west.
The sequencing and dependency of activities and project in the precinct and outcomes are key parts
of the framework – this is shown in Figure 2-12. MM plays a significant part in stimulating
development in the precinct.
Each of the component transport and urban development initiatives in the precinct are critical in their
own right, though together, they produce higher benefits by:
increasing the viability of the individual development areas
assisting in accommodating projected employment growth in the City of Melbourne of
approximately 200,000 by 2031
reducing pressure on inner transport infrastructure and reducing congestion and improving
amenity in the west
strengthening the western transport and economic hub and second-order CBD functions aspired
to in Footscray CAA
connecting Footscray and the west directly to the knowledge economies in Parkville and St Kilda
Road
enhancing the prospects of key activity centres in the west such as Sunshine, HighpointMaribyrnong Defence Site.
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Figure 2-12: Port & East-West Corridor – links, dependencies and outcomes
Metropolitan
Intermodal
System (MIS)
Create central
port hub of
MIS
Relocate markets
and non-port related
freight activity from
Dynon
frees up Dynon land for
Western Interstate
Freight Terminal
(WIFT)
Melbourne
Markets relocation
frees up Dynon land for
Dynon Boulevard
Dynon/Port
International
Freight Precinct
Port
Footscray CAA
• Efficient port
truck access
• Improved inner
city liveability
Local
transport and
open space
networks
Docklands
E-Gate
Improve access
Trade growth
East-West road
link
Truck Action
Plan
Releases road
network capacity
and unlocks
bottlenecks for
port freight
Regional Rail
Link and
Melbourne
Metro
Arden Station
Precinct
Inner City Activities
Growth
• Urban renewal
• Inner city growth
• Extension of knowledge
economy to the west
2.6
2.6.1
Sustainability of urban form
Greenhouse gas emissions
6
Victoria's annual greenhouse emissions are currently 122 megatonnes of emissions equivalent (Mt
CO2-e) which is 15% growth since 1990 and the highest per capita emissions in the world. While total
emissions fell by 2.5% between the peak of 2004 and 2007, they returned to 2004 levels in 2009.
Energy use is the source of over 80% of Victoria’s greenhouse gas pollution, with electricity and
transport representing the two largest sources. Despite its mandatory higher energy rating, new
(mostly outer suburban) housing stock emits on average 6% more carbon pollution than existing
homes due to larger houses. Combined with declining average housing occupancy, emissions from
new housing is growing 27% faster than population growth.
The transport sector is the biggest consumer of energy in Victoria accounting for 37% of all energy
consumed. At the household level, transport accounts for almost 50% of all household greenhouse
emissions (refer Figure 2-13). Transport and land use planning is therefore a central component of
any strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
6
State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2009, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australian
Government, April 2011
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Figure 2-13: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Household Activity
(Source: Deakin University, AGO/CSIRO data, 2002)
Transport is the second largest source of greenhouse emissions after stationary energy, producing
16% of Victoria’s emissions, of which 90% comes from road transport. Transport emissions grew 25%
between 1990 and 2004, but declined to 18% growth on 1990 levels by 2009. After peaking in 2004,
emissions from road-based travel are returning to similar levels as in the early 2000s, while overall
7.
Victorian transport emissions have been declining at approximately 0.8% per annum since that time
This is primarily due to the surging growth in public transport use and increased walking and cycling.
Maintaining Melbourne’s existing transport network into the future would increase today’s transport
emissions by more than 70% by 2031. Assessment undertaken by DOT confirms the importance of
the development of the transport network in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with achievement of
the 2021 vision envisaged in the Public Transport Strategy maintaining constant emissions to 2021,
despite growth in services.
Outer suburban development is generally characterised by lower density housing with larger lot sizes,
larger houses, higher car ownership, higher establishment costs and longer distances to travel. For
example, residents in Melbourne’s south-east travelled an average of 17 kilometres to work compared
to the metropolitan average of 12 kilometres. It is generally poorly served by public transport, the
dispersed travel patterns in outer areas makes it difficult for public transport to serve and
infrastructure provision is struggling to keep pace with development. A high level of growth in outer
suburban areas therefore increases car dependence, transport system inefficiency, higher emissions
and higher living costs.
8
DOT has analysed transport energy consumption for the Melbourne region and found that the
highest trip efficiencies (measured by energy consumption and greenhouse gases emitted) were
found within the Melbourne CBD, followed by areas well-serviced by trams. While railway corridors
7
Emissions from road-based travel in Victoria, 1990-2009, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, National
Greenhouse Gas Inventory
8
A Spatial Analysis of Future Macro-Urban Form. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Transport Energy Outcomes for Melbourne,
Jeremy Whiteman and Gavin Alford, Department of Transport
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have higher trip efficiency compared to non-railway locations, the overall trend is for trip efficiency to
decrease as distance from inner Melbourne increases. A DOT case study on the Shire of Cardinia
suggests there are 61% more emissions per trip than for an average trip in Melbourne.
2.6.2
Widening gap in liveability
People living in the outer areas of Melbourne find it harder to obtain quality jobs. Compared to inner
areas of Melbourne, there are very few jobs accessible within reasonable commuting times and fewer
high order jobs. Growth areas contain 20% of Melbourne’s workforce but only 13% of jobs. This
means that many resident workers in growth areas need to travel to employment; 81% of workers in
growth areas travel to work by car. The issues associated with employment in outer urban areas are
exacerbated by the lower levels of white collar and higher value jobs forcing people to travel for
employment.
Other liveability impacts apart from job accessibility include rising petrol prices leading to
disproportionate impacts on car dependent communities (particularly in outer urban areas) and low
income households, poor urban amenity resulting from car-based planning (roads, car parks and
noise pollution) and decreasing levels of physical activity as a result of increasingly high levels of car
travel, impacting on public health.
The interlinked issues of climate change and liveability therefore cause the greatest impacts in the
south-east, north and western growth areas.
The Casey-Cardinia growth corridor, for example, has a ratio of jobs to people of 2:10 compared to an
average of 4:10 for Melbourne. The area also has lower levels of educational attainment with only
59% of 20-24 year olds having completed year 12 or equivalent, compared to 75% of the same age
group in the Melbourne statistical division as at the 2006 Census. Similarly, only 10% of residents in
the area hold bachelor degrees or equivalent compared to 36% across the metropolitan area. There
are no higher, tertiary, or vocational education facilities in the area; the closest post-secondary facility
is the Monash Berwick campus.
Outer areas also experience higher levels of socio-economic disadvantage than inner areas. Family
incomes in south-east Melbourne, for example, are around 5% lower than the metropolitan average
and, with limited access to public transport and the need to travel further to access employment and
services; households in outer Melbourne spend three times more on fuel than inner Melbourne and so
are more vulnerable to rising costs.
These issues have a significant impact on affordability for outer urban households. The VAMPIRE
9
index calculates the level of household vulnerability to combined impacts of car dependence,
mortgages and incomes, and shows that the further a suburb is from the centre of the city the more
vulnerable it is. Melbourne is particularly affected, as it is ringed by a number of highly vulnerable
zones, including many of the outer suburban growth corridors. The extent of this vulnerability
worsened significantly between 2001 and 2006 (Figure 2-14).
9
Unsettling Suburbia: The New Landscape of Oil and Mortgage Vulnerability in Australian Cities, Jago Dodson and Neil Sipe,
Griffith University Urban Research Program, Research Paper 17, August 2008
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Figure 2-14: Oil and mortgage vulnerability in Melbourne, 2001 and 2006
Reliance on cars in outer urban areas creates significant inequalities for lower income households,
ageing populations no longer able to drive and others who do not drive. Less time spent with families,
decreasing physical activity, noise pollution from cars and trucks, and physical space take up by large
car parks and roads, all have an impact on the social health of a community.
2.6.3
Land resources
Despite the introduction of targets to reduce the average residential lot size, new lots in outer areas
continue to consume large amounts of available land.
Urban growth continues to put pressure on land supply for housing. Despite policies targeting an
average gross density of 15 dwellings per hectare and a reduction in the average residential lot size
2
2
to 400-450m , new lots in outer areas are being constructed at an average of more than 550m . Lot
sizes in inner urban areas are substantially lower and housing is higher density and more efficient.
Creating opportunities for inner urban development around mass rapid transit (Transit Oriented
Development or TOD) reduces pressure on land supply and the need for new infrastructure and
reduces the reliance on car-based travel. The proximity of housing, public transport and jobs can also
contribute to more affordable living through reduced transport costs.
A recent analysis of 17 residential TODs in the USA showed TOD housing generated approximately
half the number of car trips than conventional housing; TOD households owned half as many cars as
other households; and TOD commuters used public transport two to five times more often than other
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commuters. The study also showed that the location of jobs and access to regional jobs next to transit
and the proximity of stations to work were critical factors in influencing use of public transport use.
Evidence on land use and driving patterns shows that compact development can reduce the need to
drive between 20 and 40%, as compared with development on the outer suburban edge with isolated
homes, workplaces and other destinations. Further, that smart growth could, by itself, reduce total
10
transportation-related CO2 emissions from the current trends by 7 to 10 percent as of 2050 .
11
Modelling undertaken by DOT suggests that in a scenario where future growth is directed to innercity, ‘transport-rich’ areas of Melbourne, including the CBD, transport related emissions would be 12%
lower than the base case (ie continued urban development according to current (2008) patterns, with
no change to existing policy or implementation programs).
2.7
2.7.1
Public transport patronage
Recent train patronage trends
Rail patronage has been growing from a low point of 89 million trips in 1980/1981 to an expected 238
million trips in 2010/2011. This growth sees Melbourne’s rail network carrying the highest number of
passengers in its history.
Importantly, compared to previous peaks in the 1940s and 1950s passengers are being carried much
greater distances as the metropolitan area has significantly expanded over the last 60 years, further
increasing the transport task.
Market research shows this growth is driven by a number of factors including:
population growth;
growth in CBD activity (which is mainly accessed by public transport);
rising fuel prices and road congestion; and
concerns over the environment and personal well being.
Demand for rail services continues to grow rapidly. The latest patronage figures shows that
metropolitan train patronage grew by 8.2% in the 12 months ended March 2011, indicating that high
patronage growth has resumed following the slowdown induced by the Global Financial Crisis. Total
metropolitan public transport patronage also grew by 4.7% to a total of 515 million passenger trips
taken in the year ended March 2011.
Growth over the last two years has averaged 5.9% pa (or 5.6% in the AM peak). As shown in Table
2-2, growth has been highest on the lines serving the urban growth corridors (ie the Caulfield Group
to Frankston, Pakenham and Cranbourne, the Northern Group to Craigieburn, Sydenham, and
Werribee and the Epping line). Passengers entering the CBD in the morning peak period have
increased by around 28,000 (30%) between 2004 and 2009.
10
Growing Cooler: The Evidence on urban Development and climate Change, Urban Land Institute, Washington, 2007
11
Transport and Stationary Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios for Melbourne 2031, Jeremy Whiteman,
Department of Transport, Australasian Transport Research Forum 2010 Proceedings, 29 September – 1 October 2010,
Canberra, Australia
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Figure 2-15: Historical metropolitan rail patronage
238 million trips*
expected 2010/2011 patronage
Metropolitan Train Patronage since 1946
250
183 million trips
Petrol rationing ends
Pre 2000's patronage peak
up 102%
from
99-98
up 64%
from
04-05
Passenger Boarding (Millions)
200
8.6%
per year
(CAGR) s ince 04/05
150
St. Kilda & Pt. Melb
lines closed
89 million trips
City Loop opens
~3% per year
100
~1%
per year
50
29 day strike
55 day strike
0
1940s
Credit Squeeze
1950s
1960s
1970s
Global
Financial
Crisis
Recession
Recession
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
Financial year ended 30 June
* 2010-11 forecast outturn based on quarterly trends prior to the GFC adjusted for calendar effects
Table 2-2: AM peak train patronage at city cordon, 2004-2009
2004
2009
Annual Growth
(2004-09)
22,528
35,735
9.7%
Craigieburn
7,545
11,416
8.6%
Sydenham
5,691
9,793
11.5%
Upfield
2,197
3,388
9.1%
Werribee
4,285
7,482
11.8%
Williamstown
2,811
3,656
5.4%
Clifton Hill
13,385
16,412
4.2%
Burnley
26,285
29,936
2.6%
Caulfield
28,232
36,658
5.4%
Network
90,430
118,741
5.6%
Rail Group
Northern
Source: DOT Load Surveys, 2004-2009
2.7.2
Tram patronage
Twenty-four of the 27 tram routes in Melbourne connect radially to the CBD. The St Kilda Road
corridor is served by nine routes. All St Kilda Road routes terminate on Swanston Street at
Melbourne University in Parkville, except for Routes 1 and 8, which run to East Coburg and Moreland
respectively. Table 2-3 shows both the number of trams and highest capacity utilisation for the
morning peak period. (Capacity utilisation is the ratio of the average load over the average maximum
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capacity). In total, there are currently 90 services north-bound and 93 south-bound in the two-hour
morning peak period. In the height of the peak, there is more than one tram every minute. Tram
patronage growth between 2003/04 and 2008/09 was 31%.
Table 2-3: St Kilda Road tram routes (9 routes) – AM Peak (7-9am, May 2009)
Northbound into CBD
Route
St Kilda Road
connection point
Peak H’way Frequency
(mins)
(per hr)
Southbound out of CBD
Capacity
Utilisation
(%)
Peak
Headway
(mins)
Frequency
per hour
Capacity
Utilisation
(%)
1
Southbank Blvd
8
7.5
99
8
7.5
71
8
Domain Rd
7
8.6
117
8
7.5
85
72
Commercial Rd
12
5.0
86
11
5.5
98
6
High St
10
6.0
100
11
5.5
91
5
Dandenong Rd
10
6.0
95
11
5.5
106
16
Fitzroy St
10
6.0
63
9
6.7
86
64
Dandenong Rd
10
6.0
110
12
5.0
118
3
Carlisle St
11
5.5
89
11
5.5
122
67
Brighton RdGlenhuntly Rd
11
5.5
100
12
5.0
103
Total
Notes:
(1)
(2)
2.7.3
56.0
53.5
The scheduled 2-hour AM peak frequency and scheduled number of vehicles at route level provided by
PTD/Franchise Relationships Branch
The capacity utilisation is for a rolling hour at max load points for 2 hr am period south of Flinders St provided by
PTD Information Services “YARRA TRAMS LOAD STANDARDS SURVEY 2009” conducted in May 2009
Factors in recent public transport patronage growth
The recent surge in patronage has led to a re-consideration of long held assumptions regarding the
drivers for public transport patronage growth. It has long been considered that public transport
patronage will largely follow population growth, and that public transport mode share will decline with
rising real incomes and levels of car ownership, unless major changes are made in relative travel
costs between modes to encourage a mode shift. With recent patronage growth far outstripping
population growth, attention turned to the underlying factors driving this change.
Market research conducted over a number of years helped identify the major influences resulting in
these changes in travel behaviour. Figure 2-16 suggests that petrol price increases were the major
factor in 2006 and 2008. But across the period covering 2006 to 2010, the research identified a
number of other important factors, some of which are not captured directly in existing modelling
approaches. Increasingly strong attitudes towards personal health and fitness – and since 2008,
concerns for the environment – were seemingly driving a small but significant shift away from private
vehicle travel. Whilst these attitudes were certainly not influencing everyone in the community, the
strength of these attitudes may have been enough to drive the patronage surge well over and above
what would otherwise have been expected based on existing modelling frameworks.
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Figure 2-16: Major reasons for reducing car usage (2006-2009)
70%
60%
2006
2008
2009 (Feb)
2009 (Aug)
58%
51%
50%
40%
30%
20%
26%
20%
21%
20%
15%
14%13%
16%
8%
8%
4%
10%
12%
15%
13%
13%
9%
9%
8% 8%
7%
8%
7%
7%
7%
24%
21%
17%
7%
4%
2%
0%
Petrol prices
Parking Costs
Health &
Fitness
Lack of parking
availability
Car running
costs (excl
petrol)
Retired /
Changed Jobs
Travelled Less
Environmental
Concerns
Note: Proportion in each year sums to more than 100% as respondents could
nominate one or more reasons for reducing car travel
2.7.4
Overall travel demand
The projected growth in metropolitan population, and associated employment growth and anticipated
economic growth and the resulting increase in personal incomes will in turn increase the overall
demand for travel. Over the next 20 years, these factors are expected to contribute to motorised
travel demand growth (person trips) of up to 26%. This increased demand will not be evenly spread
geographically across the road and public transport networks. Travel demand is likely to increase
most in the growth corridors and the inner city given the likely land use patterns described above.
The increased demand may also not be distributed between modes in the same proportions as today.
In 2007, 10.8% of all daily motorised person trips are taken by public transport across the
metropolitan area12, rising to 16.5% in the morning peak period. For trips to and from Melbourne LGA
the public transport mode share is higher – around 50% across the day. Over the next 20 years it is
projected that with continuing investment in improving public transport services, the mode share in the
metropolitan area will change to 14.2% in 2021 and 15.5% in 2031.
12
VISTA (2007). This mode share is based on the percentage of total motorised journeys from origin to ultimate destination.
Mode share is usually quoted as a percentage of each motorised trip stage which equates to a current (2007) PT mode share
of 13.3%.
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High level metropolitan patronage forecasts
In 2008, DOT developed high level patronage forecasts for all public transport modes using its
elasticity model. This model uses established relationships between population and public transport
usage, combined with the expected impacts due to changes in those factors that are known to
influence travel demand, where measurable. The factors specifically included changes due to:
population and economic growth (specifically growth in population generally and employment in
the CBD)
travel costs (specifically fuel prices, parking policies and public transport fares)
service provision
road and public transport infrastructure (especially road congestion and public transport service
quality).
A specific allowance was also made for changes in community attitudes, including around health and
fitness and environmental concerns, drawing on the market research results.
The 2008 DOT forecasts are shown in Table 2-4. These forecasts are based on the following
assumptions:
demand unconstrained by supply
an average growth trend over a period of time, not for individual years which will be higher or
lower based on market conditions
long-term trends in key drivers of patronage (discussed above).
While the average forecast growth over the periods shown in Table 2-4 is notionally linear, year-onyear growth will vary around this average. Due to uncertainties in the longer term forecasts,
conservative estimates that mirror population growth have been adopted beyond 2021/22.
Table 2-4: Forecast annual public transport patronage growth (DOT elasticity model)
Mode
2008–2011
2012–2021
2022–2031
Train
9.6%
7.1%
1.3%
Tram
4.8%
4.1%
1.3%
Bus
3.8%
3.4%
1.3%
Total
6.8%
5.6%
1.3%
Patronage estimates in 2010 reveal that there has been a recent slowing of patronage growth on all
three modes, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. Rail patronage in particular has dropped
marginally below the forecast 2010 level, but has still grown from 2009. These forecasts were
re-confirmed by DOT in early 2010 and are assumed to apply for the short and medium term futures
(to 2021). Longer range planned patronage growth is assumed to follow population growth.
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Train patronage forecasts
Patronage forecasts have been prepared taking into account population and employment forecasts
and other factors influencing people’s travel behaviour. Over the next decade, growth in daily rail
patronage is anticipated to continue at an annual rate of 7.9% pa.
Growth in peak travel to the CBD grid is expected to be lower at 5.4% pa with growth being higher in
the off peak and in counter peak directions. The highest rates of city bound AM peak growth (over 6%
pa growth) are anticipated to continue to be on train lines servicing the existing growth corridors
including the Werribee, Sydenham (Sunbury), Craigieburn, Pakenham, Cranbourne, Epping and
Upfield lines (see Table 2-2).
Overall these forecasts anticipate inbound train loading at the city cordon to increase from 118,000 to
more than 250,000 passengers in the AM peak period by 2031. Of the 130,000 additional
passengers, around 55,000 are from the Northern Group and 31,000 on the Caulfield Group, if there
were sufficient capacity on the system to carry these loads (i.e. an unconstrained demand).
The unprecedented 70% growth in train patronage in the last decade and 50% in the last five years
alone has resulted in rail demand approaching the capacity of the network. This has highlighted the
limitations of key system bottlenecks such as North Melbourne and the city loop. Currently around
20,000 metropolitan rail passengers on 31 train services travel through North Melbourne railway
station in the morning peak hour. Demand is predicted to more than double by 2021 and rise to
around 55,000 by 2031.
Such increases cannot be sustained on the existing system (see below) and a significant uplift is
required in rail system capacity. Any short fall in system capacity will increase crowding and could
result in redirection of this growth to private vehicle travel with consequential impacts on congestion.
Changes to current urban development policies resulting from the new Metropolitan Planning Strategy
may influence the later year forecasts. These changes could affect, for example, location of
greenfields development, changing the balance between urban infill and greenfields development and
between metropolitan and regional centres. However, urban development is a long term proposition
and most of the development for the next 10–15 years is already in the early stages of delivery.
Table 2-5: AM peak forecast annual train patronage growth rates at city cordon
Rail Group/line
Northern
Forecast Annual
Growth
(2007-21)
7.8%
Craigieburn
6.6%
Upfield
6.1%
Werribee/Williamstown
8.5%
Sydenham (Sunbury)
8.5%
Clifton Hill
5.3%
Epping
7.0%
Hurstbridge
4.1%
Burnley
2.9%
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Forecast Annual
Growth
(2007-21)
Rail Group/line
Lilydale/Belgrave
2.9%
Glen Waverley
2.9%
Alamein
2.9%
Caulfield
5.4%
Pakenham/Cranbourne
6.3%
Frankston
3.6%
Sandringham
3.8%
Network
5.4%
Higher than average growth rates highlighted in bold
Source: DOT Travel Demand Forecasting, 2010
Network modelling results for the whole network without MM (known as the base case) are shown in
Table 2-6. The forecasts show the unconstrained demand (that is not constrained by the actual supply
of services) and are compatible with the DOT elasticity model forecasts, confirming that the strongest
growth will occur on the Northern Group.
Table 2-6: Modelled public transport network demand (unconstrained
13
AM peak 2 hour)
2008
2031 PT
Annual Average Growth
2008–31
Northern Group
32,000
87,200
4.4%
Caulfield Group
37,000
68,200
2.7%
Clifton Hill Group
19,800
42,300
3.3%
Burnley Group
29,600
53,700
2.6%
98,800
220,500
3.6%
Mode
Inbound rail load (at CBD cordon)
Tram network boardings
Source: Zenith 2010
2.7.7
Tram patronage forecasts
The tram network will also see strong demand growth, with tram forecasts for 2031 showing that there
will be a significant increase in tram volumes along the St Kilda Road corridor and tram loads to
Melbourne University will more than double. The introduction of MM has the potential to directly
address these issues on the tram network.
13
Measure of total system demand which is not ‘constrained’ by the capacity of trains. Constrained demand forecasts are
generally used in this business case as they reflect patronage on the system.
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DOT’s high-level public transport forecasts indicate that tram patronage will continue to grow at
around 4.4% pa, suggesting that the congestion on tram services in St Kilda Road will worsen. A
number of improvements have been made to the St Kilda Road corridor in recent times to cater for
this predicted growth, including a new terminus at Melbourne University to reduce tram turnaround
times, a section of third track outside the Arts Centre to reduce delays caused by turning trams, and a
number of platform stops to improve loading and unloading times, including the recent additions along
St Kilda Road at Commercial Road, High Street and Union Street as well as traffic signal priority to
improve travel times and reliability for services south of Domain. Fifty new high-capacity trams (light
rail vehicles) are also being purchased and will progressively be strategically deployed across the
network from late 2012 to cater for anticipated demand on key routes, and replace ageing fleet.
2.7.8
Regional rail patronage forecast
In 2008, DOT undertook forecasts for V/Line services, using a methodology similar to that used for
metropolitan rail forecasts. A major difference in methodology was that each line and major market
segment (peak commuter, peak regional, rest of week and weekend) were examined separately.
Table 2-7 below provides a summary of forecast V/Line growth for each of the major corridors for the
peak period. All corridors other than the eastern corridor pass through the region serviced by the
Northern Group en route to the CBD. These forecasts do not take into account localised demographic
changes associated with specific developments (such as Caroline Springs) or changes to the urban
growth boundary.
Table 2-7: V/Line growth rates 2008-2021
Period / Sector
Total
Geelong
Ballarat
Bendigo
Seymour
Traralgon
Peak – Commuter
7.2%
7.4%
7.9%
6.5%
7.2%
6.8%
Peak – Regional
6.6%
6.8%
6.6%
6.5%
6.8%
6.7%
Peak – Total
7.0%
7.4%
7.3%
6.5%
7.0%
6.8%
2.8
2.8.1
Rail network capacity and performance
Introduction
The above sections set out the current and forecast increases in patronage of the rail network. A
detailed review of the likely demand increases for each rail corridor has been compared to the
existing operating conditions and line capacities and has found that the current Melbourne rail system
will soon be at a point where more trains cannot be run on key lines.
This comparison has enabled the timing of and location of capacity constraints across the
metropolitan and regional network to be identified. This work has led to the development of a staged
upgrade rail capacity upgrade program (as discussed in section 0 above) that delivers capacity
incrementally, linked to need, while progressively moving towards a modern metro-style of operations.
The following sections summarise the analysis that has been undertaken and explain the initiatives
from the seven-stage program that are underway or already committed and the capacity and service
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outcomes delivered as a result of those initiatives. The shortfall in capacity that will remain after these
initiatives and the impact of that capacity constraint on the operation of the network will be identified.
This section discusses all parts of the metropolitan network but focuses in more detail on the Northern
Group of lines (Craigieburn, Sydenham/Sunbury, Upfield and Werribee/Williamstown) as the MM
project is focused on improving capacity and reliability on those lines.
2.8.2
Projected rail system shortfalls
The majority of Victoria’s rail network was built to serve patterns of travel and overall demand quite
different from today. The metropolitan network still comprises significant sections little changed from
their original construction as rural branch lines which now serve extensive areas of urban
development.
A ‘metro’ style operation, akin to those adopted in many of the larger cities of the world, is proposed
for Melbourne’s rail system to accommodate these patronage growth forecasts. The transformation of
the network is seen as a long term objective to be achieved through a program of initiatives, including
changes to operating practices as well as investment in upgraded and new infrastructure.
To this end, a number of projects have either been completed or are at various stages of
development, including Regional Rail Link (RRL), Sunbury Electrification Project and Laverton Rail
Upgrade. RRL will provide regional rail services with a dedicated line delivering increased capacity for
both regional and metropolitan trains across the 2 hour AM peak including:
Werribee
33%
Craigieburn
44%
Sydenham-Sunbury
50%
Geelong
100%
Ballarat
14%
Bendigo
20%
However, by 2021 it is expected that passenger demand will exceed the available capacity by 40
peak hour trains (see Table 2-8 and Figure 2-17). The shortfall is expected to grow to more than 70
trains in the peak hour by 2031. These shortfalls are greatest on the Northern, Clifton Hill and
Caulfield groups.
Table 2-8: AM peak hour capacity* shortfalls on Melbourne’s rail network (≥
≥10 trains
highlighted)
Capacity
following
committed
projects
Demand
2021
Shortfall
2021
Demand
2031
Shortfall
2031
Werribee &
Williamstown
13
20
7
23
10
Sunbury (& Melton)
13
25
12
31
18
Craigieburn
12
16
4
19
7
Line
Northern Group
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Capacity
following
committed
projects
Demand
2021
Shortfall
2021
Demand
2031
Shortfall
2031
4
6
2
7
3
42
67
25
80
38
Clifton Hill Group
18
26
8
30
12
Burnley Group
35
34
-
40
5
Cranbourne &
Pakenham
16
22
6
27
11
Frankston
16
17
1
20
4
Sandringham
12
9
-
11
-
Total (Caulfield)
44
48
7
58
15
Metropolitan Total
139
175
40
208
70
Line
Upfield
Total (Northern)
Caulfield Group
* assuming 900 train capacity planning standard
Figure 2-17: Rail patronage and existing capacity by corridor
250%
Capacity Utilisation - Peak Hour
200%
150%
Crush
capacity
Planning
capacity
100%
Load
standard
Seating
Capacity
50%
0%
2026
2018
2014
2026
2018
Cranbourne
&
Pakenham
2014
2026
2018
Lilydale &
Belgrave
2014
2026
Crush Capacity
2018
Alamein &
Blackburn
2014
2026
2018
Glen
Waverley
2014
2026
Standing Capacity
2018
Hurstbridge
2014
2026
2018
Epping
2014
Seating Capacity
2026
Upfield
2018
2014
2026
Sydenham Craigieburn
(Sunbury)
2018
2014
2026
2018
2014
2026
2018
2014
2026
2018
2014
Werribee
&
Williamst'n
Frankston Sandringham
Passengers Left Behind
In addition, the existing CBD stations also have limited capacity to handle the expected 2021 demand
leading to significant crowding on platforms and on escalators.
The capacity constraints on the Northern Group are related to the need to merge all four lines
servicing the northern and western suburbs into two lines inbound from North Melbourne. With the
current signalling system and 2016 (post-RRL) operating plan, a total of 16 trains would be able to
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operate on the Craigieburn-Upfield lines, 13 on the Sunbury line and 13 trains on the Cross-City
metro (Werribee–Frankston). This provides a total capacity of 37,800 passengers per hour from the
northern and western suburbs (average loading of 900 passengers per train). The combined capacity
of the Northern Loop and Cross-City metros would not meet the combined patronage on the
Werribee/Williamstown, Sunbury, Craigieburn and Upfield lines from 2015 onwards. The capacity of
the Caulfield Group is also limited by the City (Caulfield) Loop and Cross-City metro – the Dandenong
corridor is anticipated to reach rail operational capacity by around 2018 when 18 trains will be
operating in the peak one hour.
In addition to capacity issues, only 76% of AM peak trains on the Northern Group currently arrive
within five minutes of schedule in the peak direction. This is expected to improve to 87% with the
completion of RRL in 2014, but will decline again as patronage and crowding increases.
DOT’s estimated peak hour growth rates for individual lines confirms that lines operating within the
Northern Group will experience the highest rates (average of 10.5%) compared to the metropolitan
average of 7.1% pa.
The MM project specifically targets the Northern and Caulfield Groups, which have experienced the
highest levels of growth in recent years along with the highest levels of crowding and is forecast to
continue to grow more strongly than the rest of the network as the population in this catchment grows
substantially. Overcrowding has eased slightly on the train network in the period 2008–2010,
coinciding with an increase of 40 daily services in the peak periods provided over that time. Peak
period load breaches (trains carrying more than 798 passengers in the six hours that constitute the
AM and PM peak) have decreased from 89 in 2008, to 70 in 2009 and 58 in 2010 for the annual
October survey.
Longer-term estimates rely on more complex (four step) modelling of future land uses, the transport
system and behavioural changes. Two four-step network models, MITM and Zenith, were used to
provide forecasts for the project. The DOT model was used to provide a benchmark for the more
detailed forecasts from the strategic network models.
2.8.3
Metropolitan rail capacity upgrade program
beyond.
Metro rail systems are designed to run higher capacity trains from end to end of lines using dedicated
tracks. Unlike today’s rail network, the trains can run at higher frequency without interfering with other
routes. The focus is on simple timetables, frequent services and consistent stopping patterns.
Key steps planned towards the creation of a metro train system in Melbourne include:
introduction of new larger trains
upgrades to signalling
construction of new tracks where required to increasingly separate V/Line trains from metro trains
and to expand the capacity of the heart of the rail system, enabling all lines to carry their full
capacity of trains.
The improvements and upgrades have been planned as a seven stage program as discussed above
in section 1, with MM forming stage 5. MM is the pivotal ‘metro-enabling’ component of the program,
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which builds on precursor projects and initiatives (ie Stages 1 – 4), which are fully funded and either
underway or completed.
2.8.4
Committed projects 2010–2012
The metropolitan rail network is undergoing significant alterations over the next two years with further
operational changes, greenfield timetables and new infrastructure works. These are all shown in
Figure 2-18. These initiatives will result in improved peak hour services on all metropolitan lines
except for the Alamein/Blackburn and Belgrave/Lilydale services where patronage growth is not
expected to require increased capacity in this period. Additional shoulder peak services will also
operate on most lines to encourage more people to make their trips outside the peak period so as to
achieve a better balance of train loadings, a process known as peak spreading. During this period a
start will be made on separating the operation of the individual lines out from the line groups and
creating new independent metro lines, a process known as sectorisation. The first line to be created
is the Cross-City Line from Werribee to Frankston. The benefits of these changes and projects are
outlined in Table 2-9.
Figure 2-18: Key initiatives to be implemented between 2010 and 2012
Lilydale
Ringwood
Blackburn
Burnley
Camberwell
Footscray
Sunshine
Melton
Traralgon
Laverton
Werribee
Geelong
Pakenham
Ballarat
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Table 2-9: Benefits of works implemented 2010–2012
Project
Benefit
Laverton turn-back
Enables increased service frequency and reliability on
Werribee corridor
Electrification to Sunbury
Enables increased service frequency and reliability on Sunbury
corridor
Craigieburn upgrades works (second
electrified platform, new stabling and
maintenance facility)
Enables increased service frequency and reliability on
Craigieburn corridor and provides dedicated stabling and
maintenance facility on Northern Group
Establishment of through running from
Werribee to Frankston (Cross-City Group)
Delivers improved inner core capacity by optimising the
utilisation of through suburban (direct) lines from North
Melbourne to Richmond via Flinders Street and removing
conflicts between Dandenong and Frankston lines
Reduced number of peak crew changeovers
at Flinders Street Station (some platforms)
Enables improved throughput at Flinders Street to allow
additional trains to operate on Caulfield, Clifton Hill, CrossCity, Northern Groups
Westall turn-back and stabling
Provides opportunity to run short starter trains on Dandenong
corridor
Drop-on drivers at Sandringham
Enables higher service frequency to operate on Sandringham
line
City Loop dwell time management
Enables increased service frequency through Northern and
Caulfield loops
2.8.5
Committed projects 2013 to 2015
Even with the above initiatives, the Northern Group lines will continue to be constrained by the mixed
operation of regional and suburban trains on the corridors as well as the at grade conflicts over
Franklin Street junction (between North Melbourne and Southern Cross). This situation is
exacerbated by the patronage growth from regional centres, in particular from Geelong, and the rapid
growth on the Werribee, Sydenham (Sunbury) and Craigieburn metropolitan lines. The construction
of the Regional Rail Link (RRL) will provide a dedicated link to Southern Cross Station for regional
services, eliminating these conflicts, and freeing the electrified lines for growth in metropolitan train
services.
The South Morang Extension Project which extends the rail line from Epping to South Morang will
commence during this period. This project will also include duplication of the single line section from
Keon Park to Epping, enabling a higher service frequency to operate on that corridor.
The full sectorisation (independent operation) of the Frankston and Dandenong lines is also planned
for this period resulting in the removal of remaining Frankston services from the Caulfield loop. This
will be required to enable the Cross-City Group to function effectively at high service frequencies and
enable additional Dandenong services to operate.
These initiatives are all shown in Figure 2-19.
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Figure 2-19: Key projects implemented between 2013 and 2015
Seymour
South Morang
Epping
Hurstbridge
Craigieburn
Upfield
Broadmeadows
Keon Park
Reservoir
Clifton Hill:
Duplication Keon Park
to Epping and extension
to South Morang
Greensborough
Bendigo
Sunbury
Watergardens
Clifton Hill
North
Melbourne
Flagstaff
Melbourne
Central
Parliament
Manor Lakes
Regional:
Regional Rail Link
Southern
Cross
Richmond
Newport
Flinders Street
Williamstown
South Yarra
Alamein
Cross-City:
Removal of all Frankston
services from City Loop
Belgrave
Caulfield
All Groups:
Removal of all crew
changeovers at Flinders Street
Glen Waverley
Sandringham
Dandenong
-
Frankston
Cranbourne
2.8.6
Capacity by 2016 after committed initiatives
The planned network configuration, operating arrangements and service frequencies by about 2016
after implementation of these initiatives are shown in Figure 2-20. Post completion of RRL, Bendigo
regional trains will continue to share tracks with metropolitan trains on the Sydenham / Sunbury
corridor as far as Sunshine.
By 2016 following the implementation of RRL (and earlier initiatives), it is planned that a total of 42
services would operate from the Northern Group of lines in the peak hour. This represents an
additional 11 services in the peak hour compared to the October 2010 timetable (a 40% increase in
capacity). As all of these services cannot be run into the loop, to operate this level of service
specified, it is planned to run some extra services on the direct route from North Melbourne to
Flinders Street. The diversion of Geelong services onto RRL enables additional Craigieburn
metropolitan services to merge with services from Werribee at North Melbourne and run to Flinders
Street as part of the Cross-City Group. It is currently planned that around 2014 services from
Craigieburn would split between the Cross-City Group (running direct to Flinders Street) and the
Northern Group (running via the City Loop).
Table 2-10 lists the expected service frequencies in operation by the end of 2016 as well as the
available capacity (capacity shortfall by line also shown on Figure 2-21). The table also lists the
constraints to further increasing the capacity. It shows little or no opportunity will exist to add extra
services beyond 2016 on the Northern Group.
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Figure 2-20: Planned network configuration and planned peak hour frequencies by 2016
6
6
3
13
14
8
14
16
Table 2-10: Planned capacity in 2016 and line constraints
Service
frequency
2016
Capacity
2016*
Werribee &
Williamstown
14
14
Line capacity constrained in the inner area by the need
to merge with Craigieburn line trains on the cross city
metro
Sunbury
13
13
merge with Upfield and Craigieburn services running via
the City Loop
Line
Constraints
Northern Group
Craigieburn
12
12
to merge with Werribee services on the cross city metro
and the Sunbury and Upfield services running via the
City Loop
Upfield
3
3
to merge with Sunbury and Craigieburn services running
via the City Loop
42
42
Total
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Service
frequency
2016
Capacity
2016*
Constraints
Clifton Hill Group
18
18
Line capacity constrained in the inner area by City Loop
signalling, approach to Flinders Street and at grade
junction at Clifton Hill
Burnley Group
30
35
-
Cranbourne &
Pakenham
15
15
Corridor capacity constrained by road-rail crossings and
signalling capacity
Frankston
14
14
-
Sandringham
8
12
-
39
44
Line
Caulfield Group
Total
Figure 2-21: Rail patronage and capacity by corridor – following implementation of committed
projects up to and including RRL
250%
Capacity Utilisation - Peak Hour
200%
150%
Crush
capacity
Planning
capacity
100%
Load
standard
Seating
Capacity
50%
0%
2026
2018
2014
2026
2018
Cranbourne
&
Pakenham
2014
2026
2018
Lilydale &
Belgrave
2014
2026
Crush Capacity
2018
Alamein &
Blackburn
2014
2026
2018
Glen
Waverley
2014
2026
Standing Capacity
2018
Hurstbridge
2014
2026
2018
2.8.7
Epping
2014
Seating Capacity
2026
Upfield
2018
2014
2026
Sydenham Craigieburn
(Sunbury)
2018
2014
2026
2018
2014
2026
2018
2014
2026
2018
2014
Werribee
&
Williamst'n
Frankston Sandringham
Passengers Left Behind
Regional services
The existing and proposed V/Line regional services in 2016 after implementation of RRL are shown in
Table 2-11 below. Bendigo services will continue to share tracks with Sunbury metropolitan services
between Sunbury and Sunshine even after RRL is implemented. Seymour and Traralgon services
will also share tracks with metropolitan services.
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Table 2-11: V/Line services (peak two hour)
Current
2012
2016
(RRL)
Ballarat (via Sunshine)
3
3
4
Bacchus Marsh (via Sunshine)
4
5
5
Bendigo (via Sunshine)
4
4
5
Kyneton (via Sunshine)
1
1
1
Geelong (via Werribee/Sunshine post RRL)
8
9
12
Seymour (via Craigieburn)
3
3
3
Traralgon (via Dandenong)
4
4
4
V/Line Service
2.8.8
Reliability
As well as improving capacity to meet anticipated patronage growth, the suite of projects developed
for the upgrade of the network has been developed to improve the reliability of all services. A gradual
step-up in reliability is anticipated with the implementation of each project. As shown in Table 2-13,
reliability on the Northern Group is expected to increase from 76% currently to 87% in the peak period
following the implementation of the committed projects up to and including RRL. (Current franchise
agreements call for a reliability of 88% on time to four minutes 59 seconds for the total of services
provided each week.) Given the forecast continuing growth in patronage, reliability is likely to decline
rapidly after 2016 if no further projects are delivered to avoid train over-crowding, as train
overcrowding has a significant impact on station dwell times and hence on-time running performance.
Table 2-12: AM peak period Northern Group reliability (on time to 4 minutes 59 seconds)
Current (average January to June 2010)
76.3%
Delivery of committed projects up to and including RRL (2016)
87.3%
Reliability and punctuality on the Caulfield Rail Group is poor. In March 2011, only 66.9% of
Pakenham Line services ran on-time. This figure deteriorated further in April 2011 to just 56.9%. This
drop in performance was also reflected on the Cranbourne line, with average monthly punctuality
figures of 75.0% and 69.2% for March and April 2011 respectively.
The existing physical and operating constraints on the group mean that the Dandenong rail corridor is
already running above its practical operating throughput capacity during the busiest peak hour, and
has recorded capacity utilisation levels above 90% for the overall peak period for the last 3 years. As
more passengers crowd on to train services, there will be a corresponding decrease in service
performance.
Additional services on the group will further worsen reliability and punctuality in the busiest periods.
Adding additional services in shoulder peak periods (where current operations are still within practical
limits) will leave less room for recovery in the timetable, and is likely to exacerbate the impact of
delays as they occur.
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2.8.9
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Capacity and demand post 2016
The likely shortfall in capacity on each line group in 2021 and 2031 is demonstrated in Table 2-13.
The shortfalls are based on:
capacity provided in 2016 following the implementation of the committed projects and the revised
operational plan (ie Stages 1 to 4 of the Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program);
the demand in the busiest section of a line, not necessarily the city cordon point;
indicative representation of the capacity shortfall as the service demands shown for 2021 and
2031 do not necessarily represent the planned future service plan as future projects would seek
to meet the capacity shortfall through a combination of increasing frequency and increasing traincarrying capacity.
six-car trains in operation with a planning capacity of 900 passengers per train (ie capacity of the
new trains currently being introduced to the network). Consideration is being given to the use of
nine-car trains.
Table 2-13: AM peak hour capacity and demand in 2021 and 2031
(six-car/900 train capacity planning standard)
Capacity
following
committed
projects
Demand
2021
Shortfall
2021
Demand
2031
Shortfall
2031
Severity of
shortfall
Werribee & Williamstown
13
20
7
23
10
HIGH
Sunbury (& Melton)
13
25
12
31
18
VERY HIGH
Craigieburn
12
16
4
19
7
MEDIUM
Upfield
4
6
2
7
3
LOW
42
67
25
80
38
Clifton Hill Group
18
26
8
30
12
HIGH
Burnley Group*
35
34
-
40
5
MEDIUM
Cranbourne & Pakenham
16
22
6
27
11
HIGH
Frankston
16
17
1
20
4
LOW
Sandringham
12
9
-
11
-
NONE
Total
44
48
7
58
15
Metropolitan Total
139
175
40
208
70
Line
Northern Group
Total
Caulfield Group
(*) Additional capacity can be created on the Burnley group by operating additional services direct to Flinders Street
This capacity-demand comparison shows significant future capacity shortfall on a number of corridors
and severe shortfalls on the Sunbury (and Melton), Werribee/Williamstown, Clifton Hill and
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Cranbourne and Pakenham corridors. As a result, there is a need to focus on improving capacity on
the Northern and Caulfield groups initially with a secondary need to improve capacity on the Clifton
Hill Group.
Northern Group
The capacity constraints on the Northern Group are related to the need to merge all four lines
servicing the northern and western suburbs into two lines inbound from North Melbourne. With the
current signalling system and 2014 operating plan a total of 22 trains would be able to operate
through the Craigieburn-Upfield lines and 20 trains would be able to operate on the Cross-City Group.
This provides a total capacity of 37,800 passengers per hour from the northern and western suburbs
when utilising trains with an average loading of 900 passengers per train. The combined capacity of
the Northern Loop and Cross-City metros would not meet the combined patronage on the
Werribee/Williamstown, Sunbury, Craigieburn and Upfield lines from 2015 onwards. The results on
an individual line basis are discussed below:
Werribee/Williamstown – the implementation of committed projects on these lines will enable
demand growth to be met until around 2015 on the basis of an average loading of 900 per train.
Thereafter, significant overcrowding will occur without further capacity enhancements.
Craigieburn – demand on the Craigieburn line is likely to be met until around 2016 with the
implementation of the committed works on the basis of an average train load of 900.
Upfield – demand growth on the line will also be met up to around 2016.
Sunbury line – demand inbound from Sunshine can be met until 2016, provided electrification
and upgrades to the Melton line are not implemented before that date. The combined demand
from an upgraded Melton line and Sunbury will exceed the capacity of the shared section from
Sunshine.
Caulfield Group
Over the past five years, the number of metropolitan passengers travelling on the Dandenong rail
corridor has grown by 50%, with 30% of this growth occurring in peak periods, far outstripping
population growth in the region. Although rail patronage growth on the Dandenong rail corridor slowed
over 2008-2009 (as it did across the rail network) coinciding with the Global Financial Crisis, the
corridor still recorded average AM peak growth of 5% per annum in train loads arriving at the city
cordon over the last five years. Patronage growth across the metropolitan rail network again pickedup in the last year, with total patronage growing by 8.2 percent in the 12 months ending March 2011.
The unprecedented levels of patronage growth experienced on the corridor since 2004 have been the
cause of consistently high levels of overcrowding, despite the regular introduction of new peak period
train services. During this period, average capacity utilisation levels have frequently reached over
90% in the morning peak (7-9:30am), indicating very high levels of overcrowding on many peak
services. Increasingly overcrowded train services are causing prolonged dwell times, which contribute
to progressive deteriorations in reliability and overall service quality.
The following network constraints limit capacity on the Caulfield Rail Group, and will restrict the ability
to cater for future growth:
City Loop & Interchange Stations - Dandenong and Frankston train services share a single
track pair in the City Loop. The loop has a finite throughput capacity, and in recent years some
Frankston services have been removed from the loop during peak periods to accommodate more
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Dandenong services. As more peak period Dandenong services are added, Frankston services
will be progressively removed from loop operation. This places additional pressure at key
interchange locations such as Richmond, which are already extremely congested during peak
times, as passengers seek to transfer to loop services.
Service Patterns - currently there is a mix of stopping and express services operating in peak
periods on the Dandenong lines. These service patterns facilitate better load spreading along the
corridor, and provide a faster journey for those travelling from outer areas like Pakenham and
Traralgon. However, running a mix of express and stopping operating patterns takes up more
space in the timetable than running a single uniform operating pattern, and presents an
operational constraint to achieving maximum train throughput. Some express services have been
progressively slowed in recent years to make better utilisation of corridor capacity.
Rolling Stock - the existing rolling stock operating on the Dandenong line is limited to 6-car trains
with a passenger carrying capacity of 798 passengers (current load standard). The physical and
dynamic characteristics of the existing rolling stock (e.g. breaking and accelerating performance,
and dwell time performance) are also operational constraints.
Congestion at Level Crossings - congestion on the road network has reached critical levels at
several of the ten road-rail level crossings located on the trunk section of the Dandenong line
between Caulfield and Dandenong. Without mitigating measures, it is not possible to increase rail
service levels without worsening existing level crossing congestion.
Signalling Headways - the Dandenong line is signalled for 3 minute headways, which implies a
theoretical maximum throughput of 20 trains an hour. The practical operating throughput capacity
is 80% of the theoretical maximum, or 16 trains per hour. Operations above this level will cause
progressive deteriorations in service quality. Connecting lines, such as Frankston, Pakenham,
Cranbourne and Sandringham have lower signalling headways
These issues are being considered as part of the Dandenong Rail Capacity Program, though with the
implementation of the Cross City Metro (Werribee-Frankston), the capacity of both the Caulfield and
Northern Groups are being considered in a systematic way.
2.8.10
Train loadings
The current train load standard is 798 passengers per train. The current MTM Franchise Agreement
defines that a load breach occurs when the average load in a rolling hour exceeds the load standard.
Figure 2-22 shows the likely impact on Northern Group load breaches in the AM period between 2014
and 2024 with the implementation of the committed works only. Even with the provision of the
committed infrastructure it is forecast that each of the four corridors will have at least one load breach
per rolling hour in 2014 with the number increasing rapidly thereafter.
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Figure 2-22: Forecast load breaches on Northern Group (AM Peak)
Total Load Breaches (Northern Group)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Craigieburn
2020
2021
Upfield
2022
2023
2024
Sunshine
Whilst the number of load breaches can be used to assess the number of over-crowded trains, the
level of train loading is not assessed. Therefore, it is also useful to consider the rolling hour average
load in the same time period. Figure 2-23 shows the predicted average load on each of the Northern
Group lines in each rolling AM peak hour in 2020 with the implementation of the committed works
only.
It can be seen that in the event of no further infrastructure being provided, all Northern Group
corridors will have increasingly significant over-crowding (that is an average load exceeding 900
passengers per train) in three of the four rolling hours with people on the Werribee and Sunbury lines
left behind on platforms in the critical peak hour under normal operations (trains running to timetable).
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Figure 2-23: Forecast rolling hour train load in 2020 (AM Peak) – Northern Rail Group
1400
1200
0830-0930
0800-0900
Sunbury 0700-0800
0730-0830
0830-0930
0800-0900
Upfield 0700-0800
0730-0830
0830-0930
0800-0900
Craigieburn 0700-0800
0730-0830
200
0830-0930
400
0800-0900
600
0730-0830
800
Werribee/Williamstown 0700-0800
Average Load
1000
0
Category
0 to 798 passengers
798 to 900 passengers
900 to 1200 passengers
Above 1200 passengers
Description
Within "load standard"
Moderate over-crowding
Significant over-crowding
Passengers left behind
Figure 2-24: Load breaches on the Dandenong Rail Corridor (AM Peak)
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Figure 2-25: Load breaches on the Frankston line (AM Peak)
Figure 2-26: Load breaches on the Sandringham line (AM Peak)
2.8.11
Next stages of the rail capacity program
The next stage of the metropolitan rail capacity upgrade program must address, among other things,
the above looming capacity constraints. Based on various investigations in the past two years, the
next two stages envisaged are as follows:
Stage 5 - Melbourne Metro (MM) - new rail tunnel from South Kensington to South Yarra with
stations and alignment as per MM1, plus “surface” works to unlock capacity for fourteen additional
train services in the peak hour across the Northern Rail Group and three extra services on the
Frankston and Sandringham lines. MM lays the foundation for ‘metro-style’ services across the
metropolitan rail network and addresses critical rail capacity bottlenecks and operational issues in the
inner city and on lines serving most of Melbourne’s growth corridors.
The MM project scope has been thoroughly reviewed during 2011, which has resulted in the previous
two-stage tunnel (MM1 and MM2) being revised to a shorter single-stage tunnel (MM), enabling the
full benefits to be realised more quickly and improving value for money.
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The previous MM2 default “long” tunnel from Domain to Caulfield along Dandenong Road is made
Road, joining Dandenong rail corridor east of South Yarra station. The additional capacity that the
MM2 long tunnel option provides between Caulfield and South Yarra is no longer required for the
foreseeable future. Further, detailed investigations around possible stations along the MM2 tunnel
corridor options found no scope for major urban renewal, hence this is not a factor in selecting MM2
alignments.
Figure 2-27: Melbourne Metro rail system schematic
Stage 6 - Dandenong Rail Capacity (DRC) Program – staged investment to address critical
capacity issues on the corridor including provision for operational and timetable changes, longer
trains, signalling and power upgrades, road-rail grade separations and trackwork. These investments
will need to be progressively implemented over the next decade, commencing in the next two years. It
is assumed that with the long lead and construction timeframes for MM, a significant component of
the DRC Program works will be completed by MM opening. It is assumed that longer (9-car) trains will
be operating by MM opening - longer platforms will therefore be required on the Sunbury corridor as
part of MM scope.
While MM has strong economic performance on its own, the DRC investments permit future benefits
of MM and are included in the economic analysis of the ultimate MM scheme. DRC works will
integrate and allow for the future connections to the Port of Hastings and the proposed future rail line
to Rowville, which is currently envisaged to connect to DRC at Huntingdale.
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Stage 7 and beyond
The Metropolitan Planning Strategy (MPS), incorporating an integrated transport strategy and refined
rail priorities, is currently being prepared. The need or priority for MM and the DRC Program will not
change, as urban development patterns for the next ten to fifteen years are already largely set. The
effects of the MPS will begin to reshape Melbourne’s urban form, and hence influence the rail
priorities, beyond this timeframe.
Feasibility studies are underway for upgraded or extended rail lines to Rowville, Doncaster,
Melbourne and Avalon Airports. The sequencing and staging of metropolitan and regional rail
upgrades beyond MM and DRC Program will be determined following these feasibility studies and in
the context of the MPS. The compatibility of MM with these initiatives is discussed in section 6.3.5.
A key outcome of MM is to increase inner area rail capacity to support the continued expansion of the
rail network to meet growth. The MM has been planned to allow for additional services to growing
areas such as Melton, which is one of several options to become part of the ultimate Melbourne Metro
scheme. The Melbourne Airport Rail Link could also become part of the MM. It is assumed that the
Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines project (including upgrades to Melton / Ballarat and Bendigo
lines) is part of the ultimate MM scheme for the purposes of the economic appraisal of MM.
The number of extra services enabled by each stage of the rail capacity program is outlined in Figure
2-28.
Figure 2-28: Additional train services provided by Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program
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2.9
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Summary of business need
With the ongoing growth in inner city employment and population growth in northern and western
regions of Melbourne, it will simply not be possible to provide sufficient capacity on the Northern rail
group to service the projected demand. The City Loop and inner core network will not be able to
accommodate the required number of trains, leading to chronic congestion and unacceptably low
reliability. This will mean that residents of the northern and western regions, which are reliant on the
inner city and inner east for jobs and services, will be increasingly cut off from economic opportunities.
The Eddington report identified these major problems with east-west connectivity across the city.
Without development of inner urban sites, urban growth will continue to intensify the need for outer
suburban growth. The inner west has several industrial sites which could be developed into mixed use
commercial and residential development, though the intensity of this development is limited by the
site’s accessibility. Providing a step-change in public transport service has the capacity to unlock
development sites and catalyse intense inner-urban development.
Outer suburban development also contributes to higher infrastructure costs and developments tend to
be larger, more inefficient and contribute more greenhouse gas emissions than inner city
development. Sparser public transport service provision in outer areas also results in higher cardependence and higher living costs.
There are significant opportunities to intensify inner urban development in North Melbourne but higher
density development in that area would lead to further congestion if not served by high capacity public
transport, hence the intensity of any redevelopment is limited by the site’s accessibility. There is also
a strong need to support proposed growth in activity centres and to catalyse more intense
development around stations to make better use of increasingly accessible land. Providing a stepchange in public transport service has the capacity to unlock development sites and catalyse intense
development.
Demand for rail services in these corridors is growing rapidly. Population growth, increasing rates of
road congestion, petrol price rises and greater environmental awareness has caused a mode shift
towards public transport. This unprecedented 70% growth in train patronage in the last decade and
50% in the last five years alone has resulted in rail demand approaching the capacity of the network.
This has highlighted the limitations of key system bottlenecks such as North Melbourne, Richmond
and the City Loop. For example, currently around 20,000 metropolitan rail passengers on 31 train
services travel through North Melbourne railway station in the morning peak hour. Demand is
predicted to more than double by 2021 and rise to around 55,000 by 2031.
There are currently only two metropolitan track pairs at North Melbourne, one around the city loop and
one direct between North Melbourne and Flinders Street, used by all Northern Group services.
Services through North Melbourne are limited to 42 services per hour if there are no further
interventions beyond currently committed works, resulting in significant ongoing overcrowding.
Only 76% of AM peak trains on the Northern Group currently arrive within five minutes of schedule in
the peak direction. This is expected to improve to 87% with the completion of RRL in 2016, but will
decline again as patronage and overcrowding increases.
Ongoing congestion on the transport network also significantly impedes labour productivity,
particularly in the knowledge-intensive inner areas. Productivity is the cornerstone of future economic
growth – accessibility of knowledge jobs drives agglomeration benefits and hence labour productivity.
Freight productivity will also be threatened by road congestion, particularly in the port precinct. Freight
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movements are projected to continue to grow significantly into the future, at up to three times faster
than population growth.
Other problems include the increasing need to better service the key non-CBD centres of the
knowledge economy in Parkville and St Kilda Road. These areas are critical to the city’s economy and
are continuing to grow. They are served by tram services on the St Kilda Road – Swanston Street
corridor, one of the world’s busiest tram corridors and which continues to experience strong growth.
Services are nearing capacity and there is limited scope to provide services. This congestion
highlights the need for two of Melbourne’s more significant economic centres to be served by higher
capacity public transport to improve access and harness economic agglomeration benefits.
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3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Summarising the business need and
investment drivers
3.1
Introduction
The preceding sections have outlined the project’s policy context and the existing and future transport
and land use context. This gives rise to the business need and the problems that the city faces
without action.
The problems which this project seeks to address is based on the logic that infrastructure provision
dictates the level of service that can be provided. This in turn defines the level of accessibility offered,
and this ultimately influences land use patterns.
This section summarises the problems and business needs addressed by the overall Melbourne
Metro (MM) project in an investment logic framework.
3.2
3.2.1
Definition and evidence of the problem
Melbourne’s population growth is outstripping its ability to maintain liveability
Melbourne is the nation’s fastest growing capital city. Currently its population is 4 million people and is
expected to reach 5.5 million before 2036 at an average of growth rate of 1.5% per annum for the
next ten years. To accommodate this population growth, it is estimated that 612,000 additional
dwellings will be needed by 2031, with around half in Melbourne’s established suburbs and half in
Melbourne’s growth corridors.
This growth has led to:
Demand outstripping housing supply in certain locations, which increases house prices. Lack of
mass rapid transit services and land availability in established areas are examples of constraints
on intensity of development, so the choices for new housing are largely limited to lower density
housing in growth corridors until supply constraints are mitigated.
Rapid growth in public transport demand, resulting in system unreliability and severe congestion
on tram and train networks and ongoing congestion on road networks, particularly on transport
routes in the inner city and the west. This is affecting the city’s productivity, particularly for freight
movement, which is expected to continue to grow at up to three times faster than population
growth.
Melbourne is also shifting towards a knowledge based service economy, particularly in central
Melbourne where growth in knowledge jobs is most evident and service sector employment is
predicted to continue to increase significantly. Inner Melbourne’s ability to meet this growing
demand will become increasingly limited over the next 10–15 years as the pipeline of commercial
development in Southbank and Docklands gets used up. Other locations accessible by high
capacity public transport will be required to provide a logical next step for commercial investment
into the long term.
Evidence of the expected population and housing growth patterns and the consequences are
provided in section 2.4. Overall travel demands and rail patronage growth projections related to this
growth are explained in section 2.7.
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3.2.2
Melbourne Metro
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Current commitments to rail capacity enhancement will fail to meet future demand
and will cause chronic overcrowding and unreliability of the public transport system
The majority of Victoria’s rail network was built to serve patterns of travel and overall demand quite
different from those occurring today. The metropolitan network still comprises significant sections little
changed from their original construction as rural branch lines which now serve extensive areas of
urban development. Transformation of the rail system to metro style operations is required to meet
future demands. The transformation involves operating changes and investment in upgrades and new
infrastructure to permit segregated, end-to-end operations. Without this, train crowding and track
congestion will cause unreliability and performance issues on the rail network.
To this end, a number of projects have been completed or are in development. However, by 2021 it is
expected that passenger demand will exceed the available capacity by 40 peak hour trains and 70
trains by 2031, with shortfalls particularly occurring on the Northern and Caulfield rail groups. In
addition, the existing CBD stations have limited capacity to handle the expected 2021 demand leading
to significant crowding on platforms and on escalators.
The capacity of the Northern Rail Group is limited by junctions around North Melbourne, the capacity
of the City (Northern) Loop and the cross city line from Southern Cross to Flinders Street. The
capacity of the Caulfield Group is limited in the first instance by constraints south of Caulfield but also
by the City (Caulfield) Loop and cross city line.
This is explained in detail in section 2.8.
3.2.3
Present urban development patterns will result in lower productivity and reduced
access to jobs and services
Around half of Melbourne’s growth is expected to occur in greenfields residential development in the
northern, western and south-eastern growth corridors. This level of growth in areas with poor existing
public transport access increases car dependence and inefficiency and reduced accessibility to
economic opportunities. Road congestion will reduce efficiency and constrain growth in the freight
task, reducing productivity.
Employment in central Melbourne has also grown significantly in recent years and is expected to
continue to grow in line with population. Employment has historically been concentrated in central and
south-eastern Melbourne and is likely to attract a significant proportion of future employment growth.
Rapid population growth in outer suburban areas is therefore expected to continue without
commensurate growth in employment in those regions, further exacerbating the already significant
geographic imbalance between population and employment growth. This will increase cross-town
travel between the north-west and south-east and radial travel to access central Melbourne,
intensifying growing congestion and unreliability on Melbourne’s public transport network. Access
from the north and west to economic activities in central Melbourne and the south-east is constrained
by network capacity.
This is explained in detail in section 2.5.
3.2.4
Climate change and higher energy costs will intensify the need for more efficient
urban living
Transport is the second largest source of greenhouse emissions after stationary energy, producing
16% of Victoria’s emissions, of which 90% comes from road transport. Transport emissions grew 25%
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between 1990 and 2004, but declined to 18% growth on 1990 levels by 2009, in part due to the rapid
growth in public transport patronage since 2004.
Outer suburban development is generally characterised by lower density housing with larger lot sizes,
larger houses, higher car ownership and higher establishment costs. It is generally poorly served by
public transport and infrastructure provision is struggling to keep pace with development. A high level
of growth in outer suburban areas therefore adds to car dependence, transport system inefficiency,
higher emissions and higher living costs.
While access to central Melbourne is characterised by high levels of public transport, walking and
cycling, the share of travel by sustainable modes drops off sharply outside the catchment of the city
loop, despite key areas such as Parkville and St Kilda Road attracting a density of trips that is
amenable to servicing with mass transit. In addition to exacerbating congestion in inner Melbourne,
this increases transport greenhouse emissions.
This is evidenced in detail in section 2.6.
3.3
Timing considerations
The problems outlined above will be increasingly manifested over the next decade, to the point that
the capacity shortfall on Melbourne’s rail network will reach 40 trains in the AM peak hour by 2021.
While reliability on the Northern Group will be boosted significantly by RRL, it will deteriorate as train
and track capacity limits are breached by patronage growth. The project is of a scale that requires
significant implementation lead times, in the order of 10 years from funding commitment to opening.
Part of the lead time relates to approvals, so it could be reduced if approvals are undertaken now. The
lead times suggest that the project will be needed well in advance of likely delivery.
3.4
Other occurrences of the problem
The city-shaping nature of this investment means that some or all of these problems are also partly
being addressed by other investments. Significant investment is planned or underway to transform the
rail into a metro-style system. As discussed in sections 1 and 2, this project is a critical part of this
sequenced strategy to address the land use and transport needs identified above. It also lays the
foundation for ‘metronisation’ of the whole metropolitan network and permits the efficient future
construction of other projects such as Melbourne Airport Rail Link, Rowville Rail Extension, Doncaster
Rail Extension and Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines (Melton / Ballarat / Bendigo).
Melbourne Metro also specifically addresses the need to manage population growth through more
urban development in established areas. This need is fundamental to the Government’s new
outcomes-based Metropolitan Planning Strategy, which will manage current challenges and consider
the impacts of Melbourne’s population growth in decades ahead to guide future planning and
investment.
In addition, the establishment of the Public Transport Development Authority will ensure that priorities
for expansion of public transport are identified and acted on.
3.5
Investment logic
Based on these problems and business needs, an investment logic map has been established for the
project (Figure 3-1), describing the service need and key problems that need to be addressed, and
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hence the strategic interventions or high-level objectives for the project. The high-level benefits or
outcomes achieved by the project are also articulated. The benefits of the scheme and key
performance indicators are articulated in section 7.2.
Table 3-1: Key problems and descriptions to address them
Problem/business need
Description
Congestion on tram, train and road networks
Melbourne’s growth is outstripping its
ability to cope
Inability to unlock inner urban development opportunities
Inability to accommodate significant growth in freight task due to
congestion on the road network
Access from north and west to economic activities inner Melbourne
and inner east constrained by network capacity, limiting labour
productivity
Present urban development patterns will
result in lower productivity and reduced
access to jobs and services
Unsustainable levels of growth in outer suburban areas, adding to
car dependence and inefficiency and reduced accessibility to
economic opportunities
Congestion on road network reduces efficiency and growth in
freight task, reducing productivity
Climate change and higher energy costs
will intensify the need for more efficient
urban living
Unsustainable levels of growth in outer suburban areas, adding to
car dependence, system inefficiency, higher emissions and higher
living costs
The current commitments to rail capacity
will fail to meet future demand and cause
chronic overcrowding and unreliability of
the public transport system
Increasing population growth in north and west and in employment
in inner Melbourne increases rail demand
Train crowding and track congestion causes reliability and
performance issues on the rail network
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Figure 3-1: Investment logic map
Investor:
Facilitator:
Initial Workshop:
Version no:
Last modified by:
INVESTMENT LOGIC MAP
Melbourne Metro
Hector McKenzie
Terry Wright
February 2010
v 0.2
Chris Tehan
PROBLEM
STRATEGIC
INTERVENTIONS
Melbourne’s
liveability is
improved and shared
40%
Melbourne’s
population growth
is outstripping its
ability to maintain
liveability
20%
KPI 1: Train loading
KPI 2: Train & tram reliability
KPI 3: Road congestion
KPI 4: Urban development in
established areas
Stronger Victorian
economy
40%
KPI 1: Commuter travel –
reduced travel times
KPI 2: Agglomeration benefit
KPI 3: Jobs in Melbourne
LGA
Increased access to
jobs and services
10%
KPI 1: Access to jobs
KPI 2: Access to capital city
functions
Transition to a lower
emissions society
10%
KPI 1: Proportion of travel by
public transport
KPI 2: Greenhouse gas
emissions from transport
Current
commitments to rail
capacity
enhancement will
fail to meet future
demand and will
cause chronic
overcrowding and
unreliability of the
public transport
system
50%
Present urban
development
patterns will result
in lower productivity
and reduced
access to jobs and
services
20%
CHANGES
ASSETS
NEEDED
Additional rolling
stock
Improve the
performance of
Melbourne’s existing
rail system
25%
Increase the capacity
of Melbourne’s rail
system
50%
Facilitate the
effective use of land
within Melbourne for
housing and
employment
25%
New rail tunnel
between South
Kensington and
South Yarra
through CBD
including five new
underground
stations
Protect land
corridor for new
rail tunnel and
underground
stations between
Kensington and
South Yarra
Acquisition and
consolidation of
land and strata
Facilitate urban
development in
Arden precinct
and around new
CBD stations
Development
enabling
infrastructure and
public realm
improvements in
Arden precinct
Climate change
and higher energy
costs will intensify
the need for more
efficient urban
living
10%
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3.6
3.6.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Project vision, goals and objectives
Vision
The Melbourne Metro Rail Tunnel Vision Statement and Design Objectives informs the development
and delivery of the project at the highest level. Developed in collaboration with a wide range of
project stakeholders, the vision statement establishes the overarching project vision and aims, as well
as an associated suite of design objectives and architectural principles.
The overarching vision for MM is:
a Metro system which delivers a high quality user experience, shapes Melbourne’s growth
and identity, connects people with important destinations and is enjoyed by all of Melbourne’s
residents and visitors.
The project aims cited are those set out and in the objectives of the Transport Integration Act (2010).
The vision statement notes that the design of Melbourne will be guided by the Victorian Government
Architect’s Good Design Principles for transport projects, and that consultation highlighted the
following principles as being particularly important to the design of MM:
provide the highest quality travel experience for all users
provide an efficient and functional Metro rail service
provide an enduring contribution to Melbourne’s growth and identity.
The vision statement will be continuously refined through stakeholder and community engagement
and feedback, to ensure that it reflects the Victorian community’s vision and aspirations for MM.
3.6.2
Goals
Based on this vision, the overarching goals for the development of the transport system in Victoria
and the rail system in Melbourne are:
1. To provide Victorians the best transport network in Australia, so that people can spend less time
commuting and more time with family and friends.
2. To give people living in Melbourne’s growth corridors more transport options by expanding public
transport links, including major rail extensions, into growth corridors.
3. To create a modern metro-style train system with frequent train services day and night to meet the
needs on an international city of five million people and beyond.
The MM tunnel from Dynon to Domain is the catalyst for transforming Melbourne’s suburban rail
system into a modern mass transit metro network and contributing to these goals.
Specific goals for this project:
avoid unacceptable congestion on Melbourne’s busiest rail corridors and associated traffic
corridors, including the West Gate Freeway and Footscray, Dynon and Ballarat Roads
promote the growth of knowledge-based, nationally important industries in Melbourne
drive rapid urban consolidation along transport corridors
provide for long-term extensions of the rail network.
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3.6.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Objectives
As shown in the investment logic map, to address the key problems, three strategic interventions are
proposed. The high-level strategic interventions are supported by specific objectives as outlined
below.
1. Improve the performance of Melbourne’s rail system
>
reduce crowding on the rail system through additional rail track capacity through inner
Melbourne on the Northern and Caulfield Rail Groups
>
improve punctuality and reliability of the rail system by sectorising the Northern Group
services so that the Sunbury/Watergardens, Craigieburn, Upfield, Werribee/Williamstown,
Sandringham, Frankston, Pakenham and Cranbourne lines can operate independently as
metro lines with homogenous service patterns.
2. Increase the capacity of Melbourne’s transport system
>
reduce crowding on the rail system by providing additional rail track capacity through inner
Melbourne on the Northern Group
>
reduce congestion on road system by diverting more travellers to rail system
>
reduce congestion on tram network by diverting tram users to train where appropriate
3. Facilitate the more effective use of land within Melbourne for housing and employment
>
provide enabling interventions and infrastructure to facilitate urban renewal in underutilised
land in North Melbourne area
>
improve accessibility of north-western and south-eastern areas of Melbourne to increase the
stock of human capital in those areas
>
contribute to rebalancing the social and economic equity within Melbourne, and in particular
improving access to employment and services for those in Melbourne's north and west and
outer south-east
>
utilise the very significant potential growth projected for central Melbourne to reshape the city.
A key consideration is that this growth is effectively tied to the central area of Melbourne, as
described above and so therefore it is not feasible to suggest or plan for it to be located in
outer suburban locations
>
ensure Melbourne and Victoria retain their competitive economic advantage by providing
supply of relatively inexpensive and well located land for commercial development in central
Melbourne
>
provide for opportunities for dwelling development within Melbourne's established areas
>
improve rail service quality in the north-west and south-east to encourage more intense
development around railway stations.
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PART B – DEFINING THE BEST SOLUTION
PART B – DEFINING THE BEST SOLUTION TO
ADDRESS THE NEEDS
4
Options assessment
4.1
Strategic options
The Department of Transport (DOT), in conjunction with the Department of Planning & Community
Development (DPCD) and central agencies, has considered a number of responses to the key issues
of managing population growth, addressing transport system congestion, improving accessibility to
jobs and services and reducing the environmental impacts of growth. This process began as part of
14
the East-West Link Needs Assessment Study which identified that an east-west rail tunnel under the
CBD linking Footscray and Caulfield was, among a suite of solutions, an essential infrastructure
initiative for Melbourne to deal with those specific problems. This has since been confirmed from the
strategic planning processes undertaken within DOT and DPCD. As part of these processes, high
level strategic options were identified to address these issues, some of which have been or are
currently being implemented.
The strategic options fall into three broad categories:
reduce demand (for the services);
improve productivity (of the assets and other resources); and
increase supply (of the assets and other resources).
The scale of the problems and business needs identified suggests that a suite of interventions,
including a major increase in supply, is likely to be required. The interventions in each category
identified as having potential to address the problems and business needs are listed and described in
Table 4-1.
Table 4-1: Summary of potential strategic options
Intervention
type
Specific intervention
Nil response
1. Do nothing (base case)
No changes
2. Transport congestion pricing
Pricing strategies (such as road congestion pricing, early
bird rail tickets, shoulder peak service incentives) to reduce
transport demand in peaks.
3. Curtail growth in outer
Planning instruments and/or legislation to limit new housing
in outer suburban growth areas.
Reduce
demand
suburban areas
14
Description
Investing in Transport, DOT (Eddington) 2008
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Specific intervention
4. Reconfigure network,
timetable & operations to
establish metro-style train
Description
15
Line sectorisation , new city loop operating strategies and
timetables and supporting infrastructure to enable
segregated, end-to-end, high frequency train operations.
operations
5. Double-deck/longer trains
Introduce double-deck rolling stock or increase number of
carriages and lengthen platforms to increase train-carrying
capacity.
6. Upgraded signalling
Upgraded lineside signalling and/or new high capacity incab signalling as required to enable higher frequency
operations.
Improve
productivity
7. Facilitate inner urban
renewal and more intense
development around railway
Planning instruments, land consolidation and enabling
infrastructure to support intense urban development in
locations accessible to mass rapid transit.
stations
8. New east-west rail tunnel
Underground railway through CBD linking Footscray and
Caulfield to relieve overcrowding and cater for future
growth, increase accessibility to jobs and services and
reduce road congestion to accommodate growth in freight.
9. New east-west road tunnel
Underground road linking Eastern Freeway and Western
Ring Road via Port of Melbourne and with CBD access
points to increase city access by car and cater for future
growth, increase accessibility to jobs and services and
reduce road congestion to accommodate growth in freight.
Increase
supply
with CBD access
A blend of the interventions 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 forms the clear preferred strategic option. By
themselves these interventions fail to fully address the scale of problems identified by this investment,
but do improve and maximise the benefits. This is explored in the hierarchical project options
assessment below. Interventions 3 and 9 do not address the specific problems identified for this
investment.
An upgrade of the existing signalling was identified as an important complementary measure to the
proposed infrastructure schemes rather than a substitute. Further work confirmed that signalling alone
has limited benefits in terms of additional capacity, though new signalling is recommended as part of
any capacity enhancement project to realise the maximum capacity uplift.
In the strategic assessment (see Regional Rail Link and Melbourne Metro Project Plan for
Infrastructure Australia, January 2009), three levels of option assessment were identified for the
preferred east-west rail link. The highest level considers network wide alternatives and then moves
through increasingly detailed elements of the project as shown in Table 4-2. The assessments
undertaken at each level are discussed below.
15
Dismantling the four existing rail groups by separating existing lines out from their rail groups and creating eight metro line
groups which operate independently from each other
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Table 4-2: Option hierarchy
Level
Objective
Level 1:
Corridor options
Report/Process
Identify and assess strategic
corridor options
Preferred corridor option
Project Plan for IA
(January 2009)
Identify alignment options
Scope of investigations to
determine preferred
alignment
Project Plan for IA
(January 2009)
Assess alignment and station
location options
Preferred alignment and
station locations
Options Assessment
Report (March 2010)
Establish detailed costs and
benefits for preferred option,
Assess detailed sub-options
Resolution of detailed suboptions of preferred overall
option; preliminary design,
scope and cost estimate
This business case
Level 2:
Alignment options
Level 3:
Full business
case
Output
This previous work also identified level 2 alignment options, the assessment of which is detailed in the
Options Assessment Report (DOT, March 2010). This business case progresses the preferred level 2
alignment and station locations option for MM which were endorsed by Cabinet in June 2010. It also
assesses the sub-options, such as specific station locations, station access and mobility, technical
and systems aspects and land use redevelopment.
A summary is provided in the following sections of the level 1 corridor options and the level 2
alignment and station location, layout and configuration of stations, platforms, station entrances and
tram interchanges; interchanges with CBD stations, and intervention options in Arden, along with
some of the detailed sub-options to the preferred scheme.
4.2
Corridor options assessment
The level 1 corridor options assessment investigated network-wide alternatives to identify the
preferred corridor for the new east-west rail tunnel scheme, both within a geographic sense as well as
within the context of the whole rail network. This work was completed in 2007-2008 and was
16
summarised in DOT’s submission to IA . This determined the preferred ‘default’ route as an eastwest rail tunnel via Parkville and St Kilda Road linking Footscray and Caulfield.
Four corridor options were identified to address inner core metropolitan rail capacity issues,
particularly the Northern Group. The four options considered were:
Option C1 – New viaduct between Flinders Street and Southern Cross. This provides a new
track pair between North Melbourne and Flinders Street station by building a new viaduct. This
would enable Werribee and Williamstown trains to run through to Sandringham creating a more
efficient operation and additional capacity for other lines.
Option C2 – Northern – Caulfield Rail Group Loop Connection. This would modify the
existing underground rail loop to effectively provide an additional track pair through the CBD to
Caulfield. This would allow all Frankston trains to run through to the Craigieburn/Upfield lines
without passing through Flinders Street Station.
16
Regional Rail Link & Melbourne Metro 1 Project Plan for Infrastructure Australia, DOT, January 2009
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Option C3 – Northern – Burnley Rail Group Loop Connection. Similar to Option C2 this would
allow the Burnley group trains to operate through to Craigieburn/Upfield lines.
Option C4 – New East-West Tunnel via Parkville. This (preferred) option is the Melbourne
Metro project.
Options C1, C2 and C3 include an additional track pair from Caulfield to central Melbourne to meet
long-term demand, which is an inherent part of Option C4. Options C1 and C2 include an additional
tunnel between Melbourne Central and Caulfield.
Figure 4-1: Melbourne Metro corridor options
These four options were assessed against multiple criteria, which determined that Option C4 was the
preferred corridor, principally because it delivered more additional train paths (55) than the other
options. Option C1 was not favored due to the major land use and community impacts around the
Flinders Street and Yarra River precinct. Options C2 and C3 were not preferred due to their significant
constructability issues. Option C4 also presents the opportunity to support urban redevelopment in the
inner west.
The alternative schemes were rejected either
because they failed to address the forecast shortfall in capacity and failed to offer the same
potential to support the continued development of the inner metropolitan area; or
presented major engineering challenges or long disruptions to the system.
Table 4-3 below summarises the reasons for rejecting the alternative schemes.
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Table 4-3: Summary of corridor options
Additional peak hour
train paths
Option
East-West Rail
Tunnel
Additional City
Loop Tunnels
+55
Comments
-
High delivery cost
Provides additional station capacity
Opens urban renewal and growth opportunities
-
High delivery costs, major risks and significant interface issues
High passenger impact from terminating Werribee and
Williamstown services at Southern Cross
Does not alleviate station capacity constraints
Does not open new routes to heavy rail
+24
-
New Southern
Cross-Flinders
Street Viaduct
+16
-
-
Severe disruption to existing services during construction
period (including need to close city loop for periods of time,
hence requiring increased redundancy in inner core rail system
before this can be contemplated)
Severe engineering challenges
Bypasses Flinders Street and Southern Cross Stations
-
Assessment ongoing
Low cost
Incompatible with loop stations included in MM
‘Through
Routing’ of City
Loop
9-car operation
+20
+12
Severe amenity impacts including partial demolition of
Aquarium, Northbank Park, Conference Centre
Does not alleviate station capacity constraints
Other schemes have been proposed which envisage a full ‘metro’ system completely independent of
the existing rail network, and serving areas of Melbourne not currently served by rail. Such schemes
were not considered in this assessment because they do not address the existing and future
problems identified. The preferred scheme facilitates the operational and physical segregation of
existing rail lines to enable metro-style services to operate on existing lines, as discussed in the
following sections.
4.3
Melbourne Metro default scheme
Through the EWLNA, a default, two-stage scheme was proposed for MM, based on the preferred
corridor option, though the specific alignment and station location options within the corridor had only
been subject to limited examination.
The default scheme would create new metro services from Sunbury (and ultimately Melton upon
electrification and duplication) to the Dandenong corridor via the CBD and St Kilda Road. The new
line would utilise existing tracks from Sunbury (and Melton) to South Kensington before entering a
new rail tunnel from South Kensington to the Dandenong corridor. It would operate as a stand-alone
railway with no interaction with other suburban lines and would ultimately utilise a dedicated fleet of
metro trains all of which will be stabled and maintained on the line. Under the Default Scheme, new
stations would be built at:
Parkville, Swanston Street North, Swanston Street South and Domain as part of Melbourne Metro
1
Alfred, Windsor and Orrong Road as part of Melbourne Metro 2.
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This default scheme has been tested by considering alternative station locations within a broadly
defined study corridor.
The new line would be delivered in two stages:
in the first stage (MM1) the new line would operate between Sunbury/Melton and a turn-back
station on St Kilda Road
in the second stage (MM2) the line would be extended from St Kilda Road to the Dandenong
corridor where it will connect with existing track to Cranbourne and Pakenham.
The default scheme would also permit the establishment of independent metro services on all
Northern and Caulfield Group services.
4.4
4.4.1
Station location and alignment options assessment
Alignment and station location options assessment framework
The methodology used to assess the alignment and station locations consisted of three steps:
1. identification of alternative station locations within the study area
2. preliminary assessment of these options to create a shortlist
3. evaluation of the short-listed options.
Potential options were developed through review of earlier studies, including those in support of the
EWLNA, strategic long-term planning by the DOT, project team investigations, identification of cityshaping opportunities with the Department of Planning & Community Development (DPCD),
workshops with staff from across DOT and discussions with key stakeholders.
Through this process, numerous variations to the default scheme were identified, each of which have
tangible differences in economic, environmental and social benefits and costs of delivery. These
options were subsequently distilled into a number of key decisions.
Possible redevelopment opportunities were reviewed within a broadly defined MM corridor
(Figure 4-2). Following an assessment of possible rail alignments, 14 station locations were identified
for consideration across five sub-areas. Further assessment of these study areas short-listed two
re-development opportunities: North Melbourne/Arden and South Melbourne.
In addition to these redevelopment opportunities, a number of key stations (Flinders Street,
Melbourne Central and Flagstaff) were identified as train/train interchange opportunities while St Kilda
Road locations (such as Domain) and Parkville were identified as key locations for train/tram
interchange. These major interchange points serve existing and planned development, providing
benefits in terms of reduced travel times and improved agglomeration.
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Figure 4-2: MM Corridor Study Area
The preliminary analysis of alignment and station locations enabled the identification of seven key
questions to be resolved through detailed options assessment. These decisions and option
combinations are summarised diagrammatically in Figure 4-3 and Figure 4-4, while Table 4-4
examines each of the decisions in detail, including the key considerations and influencing factors of
each decision and the interdependencies between decisions. The options were assessed with
consideration to the following aspects:
accessibility to existing and planned land uses (including capital city function for CBD alignment
options)
redevelopment potential
rail operations
tram network integration
cost and risk
economic impact
environmental, social and heritage impacts
stakeholder views.
Each option was assessed as to their impacts relative to the default scheme under each of the
criteria, rather than absolute impact.
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Figure 4-3: Station and alignment options
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Figure 4-4: Station and alignment option combinations
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Table 4-4: Decisions to be taken, key considerations and interdependencies
Decision
A
B
Description
Key considerations
To provide an Arden Station
with associated
redevelopment or
Redevelopment benefits
triggered by a station
not provide a station
(Default)
Incremental cost and risk of a
station
To locate Parkville Station in
Grattan Street (Default) or
Access to existing and planned
land uses
in Flemington Road
Tram network integration
Patronage
Relative costs, risks and impacts
To adopt a Swanston Street
alignment (Default) or
land uses
a William Street alignment
Integration with the existing rail
network
C
To provide one CBD station
or
land uses
two CBD stations (Default)
Integration with the existing rail
network
D
Interdependencies
Decisions B & C: Preferred
location can only be achieved
with a Grattan Street/Swanston
Street alignment
Decision C: Grattan Street
with a Swanston Street
alignment
Decision B: Grattan Street
alignment
Decision E: A station at
Domain can only be achieved
alignment
Decision C: Only a Swanston
Street alignment will allow for
two interchanges with the
existing rail network
Ability to accommodate
passenger flows
E
F
To provide a station in
Domain (Default) or
Redevelopment benefits
triggered by a station
a station in South Melbourne
with associated
redevelopment
land uses
To allow for an MM2
extension via Dandenong
Road (Default) or via Toorak
Road, Commercial Road or
Balaclava Road
land uses
Decision E: A station at
Domain can only be achieved
alignment
Decision G: MM2 station
locations
Patronage
Rail network operations
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Decision
G
Description
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Key considerations
To provide (or not provide)
stations on default alignment
at:
Patronage and travel benefits
Commercial Road (Alfred)
Windsor
Incremental costs, risks and
impacts
Orrong North
Interdependencies
Decision F: MM2 Alignment
land uses
or on other alignments at:
Jam Factory or South Yarra
(Toorak Rd)
Prahran (Commercial Rd)
Balaclava and Orrong South
(Balaclava Rd)
4.4.2
Decision A – Arden Station
The default scheme did not include a station between Footscray and Parkville. This decision relates to
whether a station is provided or not in this location. Key factors considered in assessing this decision
include the urban redevelopment benefits triggered, patronage and the incremental cost and risk of a
station.
As highlighted above, four strategic locations were analysed and the Arden precinct was found to
have the best combination of urban development potential and location in regional and local contexts.
Various locations for a metro station have been identified and assessed in the vicinity of Arden Street.
This assessment recommended a preferred station site at the western end of Queensberry Street in
North Melbourne. This station would stimulate approximately 50 hectares of redevelopment, should a
station in this area be proven worthwhile.
Decision A summary
That an Arden Station be included in the project as it:
•
would stimulate significant levels of redevelopment, potentially accommodating an additional
23,000 jobs, (or a quarter of inner Melbourne’s projected employment growth) 10,000 residents
and 12,000 students, equivalent to a CAD
•
has the capacity to shape the urban structure of Melbourne by accommodating employment
growth in inner Melbourne and catalysing the North Melbourne to Melton employment corridor
•
connects the CBD and Footscray via a corridor of urban activity and underpins the potential of
Footscray CAD and its role in accommodating city fringe commercial activities and capital city
functions
•
generates patronage in the order of 9500 alightings and 2000 boardings in the 2046 AM peak with
the full scheme
•
would revitalise an underutilised and dilapidated tract of government-owned industrial land in
inner Melbourne
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•
would dramatically activate and improve access and mobility in North Melbourne and create
opportunities for supporting public transport links
•
would add only $110 million to the cost of the default scheme, compared with an additional
$340 million in urban consolidation benefits
•
is strongly supported by relevant stakeholders.
4.4.3
Decision B – Parkville Station
Two station location options were considered for Parkville:
Grattan Street (around the intersection of Royal Parade)
Flemington Road (between Grattan Street and Park Drive).
The Grattan Street Station is on the default Swanston Street alignment connecting to a CBD North
Station in Swanston Street that would be integrated with Melbourne Central Station and provide direct
access to RMIT University. The Flemington Road station location is premised on a William Street
alignment through the CBD, which would provide a direct link to high density housing and commercial
at the western end of Southbank.
Importantly, a station in Grattan Street would not allow for the William Street alignment to be adopted
due to the radius of curvature required for the railway and the desire to avoid major property
acquisition to the north of the CBD. As a result, Decision B is interdependent with Decision C, CBD
alignment.
The key factors considered in assessing this decision included access to existing and planned land
uses, tram network integration and relative costs and risks.
Decision B summary
That the Parkville Station be located in Grattan Street.
As the centre of the Parkville educational and biomedical precinct, Grattan Street is the natural
location for a new station, providing the greatest level of accessibility to the existing major attractors of
the hospitals and Melbourne University.
Grattan Street is demonstrably more accessible compared to Flemington Road, with 30,000 more
students, 70% more jobs and 45% more residents in the walking catchment. It also has a greater
capacity to provide relief to St Kilda Road tram congestion and provides a far superior outcome for
pedestrian movement. Grattan Street station has strong stakeholder support.
There are no technical or cost reasons for Flemington Road to be preferred over the default Grattan
Street location.
This recommendation is interdependent with Decision C. Given that Grattan Street is preferred, the
only reason why a Flemington Road location should be contemplated is if a William Street alignment
through the CBD were preferred, which could not be achieved with a Grattan Street station.
4.4.4
Decision C – CBD alignment
The default CBD alignment is via Swanston Street. Alternative alignments have been considered
along Russell, Elizabeth and William Street alignments, as shown in Figure 4-6. Key factors
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considered in reaching this decision include access to existing and planned land uses, integration with
the existing rail network, tram network integration and the relative costs, risks and impacts.
Preliminary assessments of Russell Street and Elizabeth Street alignments indicated that they would
be $430 million and $600 million more expensive than the default, respectively.
The Russell Street alignment also offered no major advantages compared with the default though it
does have less impact on trams and the busy Flinders Street Station precinct during construction and
it also enables the Grattan Street station to be located further east, better integrating with Melbourne
University and causing less impact on the hospitals. In addition to the higher cost, major
disadvantages of the Russell Street alignment are that interchange with the existing inner core
stations would not be possible (Flinders Street and Melbourne Central Stations would be 250 metres
from CBD metro stations on Russell Street), construction of the CBD south station would be more
disruptive to Federation Square and may limit future development opportunities to its east.
While Elizabeth Street still offers direct interchange with Flinders Street and Melbourne Central
stations, it precludes the possibility of Parkville Station being located in the strongly preferred Grattan
Street location, and it requires significant CBD land acquisition. It is an inherently riskier alignment
due to the flood prone area at the southern end of Elizabeth Street and would have impacts on the
existing Elizabeth Street subway at Flinders Street Station. The alignment south of the Yarra is highly
constrained through the Southgate area necessitating double stacking of tunnels.
These alignments were ruled out of further assessment on this basis, leaving the William Street
alignment as the only alternative to the default for detailed consideration.
The Swanston Street alignment proposes stations to the north of La Trobe Street and to the south of
Collins Street interchanging with Melbourne Central and Flinders Street Stations respectively. The
William Street alignment includes one station at La Trobe Street and a second on Queensbridge
Street, Southbank.
Investigation of a western CBD alignment via William Street was pursued at the request of City of
Melbourne on the basis that MM may serve new mixed use development and stimulate activity over
longer periods of the day in the western parts of the Hoddle Grid and around Queen Victoria Market. It
was also considered on the basis that it provided an alternative route to a metro station in South
Melbourne (Decision E).
Decision C summary
That the default Swanston Street alignment be adopted.
The William Street alignment would provide a less desirable network solution, with fewer services
able to interchange directly with the Metro. A single CBD station is also likely to be more expensive as
its footprint would be significantly larger.
A William Street alignment through the CBD would also cost an additional $470 million and would be
inherently riskier than the default due to poorer ground conditions and potential impacts on the
foundations of significant buildings.
Furthermore, a William Street alignment would preclude Parkville Station being located in its preferred
location in Grattan Street, it would require a less desirable Arden station location and the default
station at Domain would not be possible.
While a William Street alignment has some merit in supporting redevelopment and improving access
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to areas of the CBD and Southbank that are not currently well served by the rail network, the
significant passenger downsides and incremental costs compared to a Swanston Street alignment will
result in lower net economic benefits of the scheme.
4.4.5
Decision D – One or two CBD stations
The EWLNA identified one central station in the vicinity of Bourke Street, which could be situated far
enough south to (indirectly) interchange with Flinders Street Station. Two CBD stations interchanging
with Flinders Street and Melbourne Central along the Swanston Street alignment (the default) were
subsequently proposed. The option of providing one or two CBD stations has now been investigated
to a further level of detail.
A single CBD station could be located such that it provided interchange with either Flinders Street or
Melbourne Central Station or it could be centrally located in Bourke Street, without rail/rail
interchange.
Key factors considered in assessing this decision include access to existing and planned land uses,
integration with the existing rail network, ability to accommodate passenger flows, tram network
integration and relative costs, risks and impacts.
Decision D summary
That two CBD stations be provided.
A single CBD station would provide a considerably poorer outcome in terms of interchange with the
existing rail network, access to employment and other activities and relief to the tram network. It
would result in 15% fewer passengers using MM compared to the default arrangement of two CBD
stations, with people instead using the existing rail lines, trams and cars more. Not only does this go
against the strategic intent of the MM project and the metro style vision for the development of the rail
network, it would result in an incremental economic disbenefit approaching -$500 million (NPV). A
two-station solution has strong stakeholder support.
Furthermore, a single CBD station is likely to require dual platforms for each track in order to deal with
the significant passenger flows. The cost of a single station is estimated to be at least the cost of the
combined total of providing two CBD stations.
4.4.6
Decision E – Station at Domain or South Melbourne
The default alignment would follow St Kilda Road with a station at Domain. However much of the land
use around Domain is parkland, limiting both the existing catchment and opportunities for urban
renewal. Through investigations into redevelopment opportunities, an alternative station location in
South Melbourne has been identified. For the purposes of this comparison, Domain Station has been
assumed to be positioned under St Kilda Road between Domain Road and Toorak Road.
Three station locations were considered in the South Melbourne area:
Kings Way (near Sturt Street)
Sturt Street (not shown)
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Moray Street (not shown).
This assessment has been based on the Kings Way location.
Current land uses in the Kings Way precinct of South Melbourne do not justify a station, as is the case
with Arden. However, the proposed location of a South Melbourne metro station and associated land
use changes presents a significant redevelopment opportunity. Furthermore, the South Melbourne
area has strong historical demand for both commercial office space and high density residential
development, owning to its proximity to the CBD.
The key factors influencing this decision therefore are redevelopment benefits triggered by a station,
access to existing and planned land uses and relative costs, risks and impacts.
Despite strong historical demand for both commercial office space and high-density residential
development in Clarendon Street, Southbank and St Kilda Road, and planning controls that allow for
commercial redevelopment to 10 and 11 storeys the current intensity of development in the Kings
Way precinct of South Melbourne is very low. This is largely due to the poor amenity and severance
caused by high volumes of traffic on Kings Way, severance caused by CityLink and fragmented land
ownership patterns in this area.
A South Melbourne metro station in Kings Way would provide a significant incentive for major
redevelopment of 15 hectares in its walking catchment.
More complex geology and deep foundations are expected to be encountered through Southbank and
adjacent to CityLink. This would make this option more costly and riskier compared with the default
alignment along St Kilda Road.
Decision E summary
That a station at Domain is preferred rather than South Melbourne.
A station at South Melbourne has significant redevelopment potential (additional 10,000 residents and
21,000 jobs by 2031) and would generate higher patronage than Domain, with 7000 extra alightings.
The NPV of urban consolidation benefits from redevelopment at South Melbourne is estimated to be
$300 million. South Melbourne also has higher patronage potential than Domain, indicating that it
would offer more travel economic benefits overall than Domain.
However, the default alignment is $810 million less expensive overall (including an estimated
$300 million to connect South Melbourne to MM2 or St Kilda Road) because it avoids the poor ground
conditions in South Melbourne and minimises the interaction with City Link infrastructure and other
major buildings and structures in this area.
4.4.7
Decision F – MM2 Alignment
Four alignment options between Domain and Caulfield have been considered and are presented in
Figure 4-5. The four options vary depending on the east-west connection between St Kilda Road and
the existing Caulfield to South Yarra rail corridor. They include:
Toorak Road
Commercial Road
Dandenong Road (default)
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Balaclava Road.
No significant city-shaping redevelopment opportunities were identified along any of the four options
that would influence the selection of the preferred alignment. There are significant constraints on
redevelopment including heritage requirements, and those infill opportunities which exist are being
actively developed or pursued for by the property market regardless of a new station being provided
in the area. The area is currently very well served by public transport including Sandringham rail
services and a grid network of tram and some bus routes (eg 605 City to Gardenvale).
Providing an additional rail service is unlikely to spur further redevelopment of significance over and
above that already being achieved by the market and the tram corridor land use intensification
initiative. There are however two strategically important destinations, namely South Yarra-Prahran
(Principal Activity Centre) and Alfred Hospital (Specialised Activity Centre), that would benefit the city
by being connected by MM2.
Figure 4-5: MM2 alignment options between Domain and Caulfield
An overview of patronage impact and cost of each option showed that variation in public transport
patronage compared with the default is relatively insignificant ranging from -2500 (Toorak Road) to
+2000 (Balaclava Road).
Construction of the MM2 default scheme is relatively straight forward, given the relatively wide road
reservations of St Kilda Road and Dandenong Road. However this option means that additional
capacity between Caulfield and South Yarra will be provided in advance of when it is needed (current
projections suggest this is not needed for the foreseeable future). This would be offset by
agglomeration benefits by serving the strategic Alfred precinct, which is able to be connected to other
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Business Case
knowledge based precincts in Melbourne via a new metro station and provides marginally greater
relief to St Kilda Road tram services than the Toorak Road option.
The Toorak Road alignment is the shortest of the tunnel options considered (Domain to a new
junction with the Dandenong line in the vicinity of South Yarra), offering the significant advantage of
being able to stage capacity increases to match the demand requirements on the Dandenong
17
corridor. The option offers significant short-medium term cost savings of $2.5 billion compared to the
full default scheme, though will cost more ($300 million in real terms) overall in the long term if a
future pair of tracks in tunnel between South Yarra and Caulfield is required. However, the ability to
stage capacity to when it is required results in significant present value cost savings. Cost savings
could also be achieved if MM2 were undertaken in conjunction with MM1 as an MM1
terminus/turnback would not be required and there would be tunnelling construction efficiencies.
Construction impacts of this alignment are anticipated include more significant impacts on local
amenity and access due to construction vehicle movements, temporary road closures, as well as
noise and vibration compared to the default alignment. Impacts may also include property acquisition
of commercial buildings along Toorak Road and the existing corridor, as well as some residential
properties.
The Commercial Road alignment has similar construction and property impacts to the Toorak Road
alignment, both of which are constrained by narrow road widths, but over a substantially longer
length. In addition, the unfavourable grade-line of the existing rail corridor, and the close proximity of
the stations in this corridor section mean that the Commercial Road tunnel alignment is constrained
from joining existing tracks until nearly at Caulfield. Hence, the Commercial Road alignment does not
present the same staging opportunities as the Toorak Road alignment, and offers marginal if any
benefit compared to the default option along Dandenong Road. Land use studies indicate that given
that the area already has a high level of accessibility and urban amenity that the addition of a further
rail line is highly unlikely to catalyse any further substantial development over and above what is
already occurring along Commercial Road.
The Balaclava Road alignment involves more tunnelling and therefore greater cost for marginal
benefit compared to the default option along Dandenong Road.
Alongside Dandenong Road, Table 4-5 indicates that only the Toorak Road is worthy of short listing
based on the potential cost savings. The other two options will not progress to the next stage of
assessment as they do not present any material benefits compared to the Dandenong Road option,
but incur additional cost or engineering issues.
17
This cost saving assumes the default Dandenong Road alignment includes stations at Alfred, Windsor and Orrong. The cost
savings of the Toorak Road alignment would also be diminished if a station were included on its alignment.
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Table 4-5: Short-listing of MM2 alignment options
Criteria
Land Use
New Metropolitan PT Trips
Cost
Dandenong Road
-
Toorak Road
Commercial Road
-
Balaclava Road
-
Assessment Criteria:
- Advantage; - Similar, Disadvantage
Figure 4-6: Shortlisted MM2 alignment options - Toorak Road (preferred) and default
Further work has since been undertaken on these short-listed options as part of recent value
engineering and MM2 assessments and are summarised in Table 4-6. Details are contained in the
18
19
MM2 Alignment Options Assessment and the MM1 Extension study . It is clear that the Toorak
Road alignment is preferred, given its substantially lower cost and the ability for to be undertaken in
conjunction as part of MM1, thereby delivering broader network benefits earlier than the two-stage
tunnel. This is discussed further in section 4.5.
18
19
Melbourne Metro Two, Alignment Options Assessment, DOT, September 2011
MM1 Extension Study, Technical Advisor, November 2011
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Table 4-6: Assessment of MM2 shortlisted alignment options
Factor
Toorak Road (Short Tunnel)
-
Dandenong Road (Long Tunnel)
Provides an east-west
-
via the MM tunnel, and a through
tunnel, and a through route
route for high capacity trains from
for high capacity trains from
the Dandenong Corridor.
the Dandenong Corridor.
Network
-
Benefits
-
-
Relief to St Kilda Rd trams.
-
Congestion relief to inner core
Relief to St Kilda Rd trams.
Congestion relief to inner
-
Land Use
Opportunities
Caulfield-South Yarra (although not
delivered as a single project,
needed in foreseeable future), and
enabling network benefits to
potential stations along St Kilda Rd
be delivered at the outset
and Dandenong Rd.
None
-
Road and Dandenong Road (around
possible stations)
benefits as the long tunnel at
Provides a similar level of benefits as
significantly lower cost
Easier than Toorak Road to construct
and stakeholder risks associated
with narrow road reserve and
the long tunnel at significantly greater
cost
More significant implementation
Risk
Minimal opportunities along St Kilda
Provides a similar level of
Economics
Provides additional track capacity
MM1 and MM2 can be
Patronage
stations.
core stations.
-
Provides an east-west connection
connection via the MM
construction in a built-up
due to wide Dandenong Road corridor,
but higher impacts due to longer
alignment and more stations
commercial and residential area
Provides significant network,
patronage and strategic city
Summary
shaping benefits, with some
implementation and
Provides marginally greater network
7
and patronage benefits than the
7
short tunnel option
stakeholder risks
Cost
-
~ $2.5 billion+ higher than Toorak Road
alignment
Decision F summary
Adopt the Toorak Road alignment for MM2
Recent investigations have confirmed Toorak Road as a feasible alternative to the default scheme
which provides similar benefits earlier and at a lower cost.
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4.4.8
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Decision G – MM2 stations
The number and location of stations on MM2 is naturally dependent on the alignment selected
(Decision F). As shown on Figure 4-6 various station options were considered for each of the
alignments. These include:
Toorak Road alignment
South Yarra
Jam Factory
Dandenong Road alignment
Alfred
Windsor
Orrong North
Issues considered in the assessment included:
existing land use, redevelopment potential and urban consolidation benefit
patronage
network integration/tram impacts
environmental, social and heritage
stakeholder views
technical engineering issues and cost
Detailed investigations around these possible stations found no scope for major urban renewal, hence
urban renewal is not a factor in the inclusion of stations on the corridors.
While none of the stations exhibited significant land use redevelopment opportunities, a station at
Alfred would enhance accessibility to a key medical precinct, linking it to Monash and Parkville
medical and education precincts. However these benefits are far outweighed by the significant
additional alignment costs of the three MM2 alignments which could accommodate a station at Alfred.
The relatively low patronage benefits provided by a station at South Yarra or Jam Factory do not
warrant the substantial additional cost of these stations ($500m and $850m respectively).
Decision G summary
Adopt no new station on MM2 Toorak Road alignment
Whilst benefits were evident at some of the stations, particularly at Alfred Station on the default
alignment, the benefits of the stations on the Toorak Road alignment were not significant and don’t
warrant their significant additional cost.
4.4.9
Summary of preferred station locations and alignment options
The findings of this options assessment were that the only change that should be made to the MM
default scheme is to provide a station at Arden and to adopt the Toorak Road alignment for MM2
(Figure 4-7). This preferred scheme has the following benefits:
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Arden Station will stimulate significant redevelopment, enabling more people to live and work
close to the city
Parkville Station will be located in Grattan Street, central to Melbourne University and the
hospitals precinct
Swanston Street is the most cost effective alignment and provides the best accessibility to key
CBD activities and a high level of integration with the tram network
providing two CBD stations avoids the risks and costs associated with designing a station for a
very high passenger throughput and enables the best network solution for the broader train and
tram systems
maintaining the default alignment along St Kilda Road and a station at Domain in favour of South
Melbourne avoids the substantial costs and risks associated with this technically challenging
environment.
adopting the Toorak Road short tunnel alignment for MM2 avoids significant additional costs
associated with the default long tunnel alignment and enables Melbourne Metro to be undertaken
as a single stage, delivering network benefits earlier than the two-stage scheme.
Figure 4-7: Preferred MM concept
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4.5
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Updated MM scheme
20 21
Based on the investigations undertaken during 2011 on MM1 and MM2
, and endorsement of the
Toorak Road short tunnel alignment, it is proposed to extend MM1 by approximately one kilometre to
South Yarra along the Toorak Road alignment. This refinement to the scheme enables the previous
two-stage tunnel (MM1 and MM2) to be delivered as a shorter single-stage tunnel (MM), enabling the
full benefits to be realised more quickly and improving value for money.
The MM2 default “long” tunnel from Domain to Caulfield along Dandenong Road is therefore made
Road joining the Dandenong rail corridor at South Yarra. Recent assessment by the project team of
the relative costs of extending MM1 via the short and (default) long tunnel schemes indicates a
considerable difference of at least $2.5 billion.
Delivering the project as one stage has significant advantages compared with a staged approach,
such as avoiding construction of a turnback at Domain, tunnelling construction cost savings, fewer
risks and community disruption will occur during a single construction period and is confined to a
considerably smaller area.
The refined MM scheme is shown in Figure 4-8.
20
21
MM1 Extension Study, Internal Working Document., Revision 01, Aurecon et al, 12 July 2011
Melbourne Metro Two, Alignment Options Assessment, V1.4, DOT, September 2011
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Figure 4-8: Preferred MM tunnel scheme
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4.6
4.6.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct intervention options
Introduction
Arden Station was included in the overall preferred option on the basis of the scale of land use and
redevelopment opportunities in its vicinity, and the strategic importance and role of such development
in assisting with restructuring of Melbourne’s west and delivering urban consolidation. It was also
recognised that, in addition to the provision of the station, there would be benefits generated by the
government playing a role in facilitating the precinct development. As has been the case in
Southbank, Docklands and in the future, E-Gate, intervention by the government ensures outcomes
are more closely aligned with the city’s long term needs rather than responding just to the market
forces of the day.
The redevelopment of Arden has already commenced. The City of Melbourne has updated its
Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS) taking MM in to account and nominating this area for urban
renewal. The next stage will require the preparation of a comprehensive structure plan for the area
which will provide an overarching framework for development.
This section summarises an initial assessment of options for the scale and nature of government
intervention to facilitate the desired urban development, in accordance with the overall MM objectives
and the specific objectives for Arden as outlined in section 3. Both the nature of the urban renewal
and interventions required to address these objectives will be refined as part of the next stage of MM
development.
4.6.2
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct concept
Arden forms a critical component of the Port and East-West Corridor Framework. This plan includes
an objective to extend capital city functions towards Melbourne’s west and take the first step in a longterm strategy to connect Footscray CAD to Melbourne’s CBD via urban activity. Significant
commercial (office) activity needs to be attracted to the areas surrounding Arden Station to achieve
this objective. The Arden precinct also contributes to the social and economic benefits derived from
the improved accessibility delivered by the project (as described later in this business case).
Several principles are necessary to achieve the objectives of Arden:
the need to develop a ‘place’ with a unique identity and distinctive urban structure and high
degree of exposure
the need to provide an urban environment with high levels of amenity for workers, residents and
visitors
the need to reinforce the accessibility of the commercial (office) core, through integration with the
proposed Arden metro station and the existing transport infrastructure in the area.
A development concept has been prepared which incorporates these principles (Figure 4-9). The
concept comprises the following elements:
1. Utilising the Arden metro station as the key hub of a new CBD fringe office precinct
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Figure 4-9: Arden Urban Renewal Precinct development concept
2. Creation of a core spine by extending Boundary Road south and linking it to the existing urban
arterials of Spencer, Victoria and Dynon Roads, improving both exposure and accessibility
3. Construction of landmark buildings comprising office and retail uses at gateway locations to the
precinct, to raise its profile
4. Provision of opportunities for significant new commercial developments, educational uses, retail
anchors and significant residential development
5. Development of the Boundary Road spine as a major urban boulevard with pedestrian scale
activity, including retail, dining and entertainment, supported by upper floor residential uses
6. Provision of high quality public spaces that link the Arden Metro station with street based activities
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7. Development of a green spine along the existing Moonee Ponds Creek corridor to provide passive
and active recreation spaces for current and future residents, as well as facilitating pedestrian and
bicycle connectivity to key surrounding areas including Kensington, E-Gate, the CBD, Flemington
and Docklands
8. Ensuring appropriate interfaces with existing heritage residential and mixed use areas to the east
of the precinct, through appropriate height gradients and design integration
9. Provision of a wide range of retail and community facilities to service the needs of the current and
future community.
This concept illustrates one development option for the area. Through the structure planning process
other options will be considered and an ultimate scheme will be developed.
4.6.3
Base case
The base case provides the reference against which each of the options is compared. The base case
is assumed to be that which would occur with no metro station or other government interventions or
investment. A metro station is considered a critical element of an intensively developed urban area,
and therefore the base case would comprise the following:
The fundamentals of property development in the precinct would remain as they are at present.
This would result in:
>
low-scale townhouse style development in the north of the precinct between Racecourse and
Macaulay Roads (approximately 1300 dwellings)
>
retention of current land uses in the middle and southern parts of the precinct
>
very limited employment growth in the precinct.
In the absence of a station, there would be limited scope to consider large scale interventions in
the precinct, and as such, major infrastructure investment such as the Boundary Road extension
would not occur and VicTrack would retain ownership and operation of the southern site.
The implications of the base case are as follows:
The opportunity to create a high value commercial office precinct, in close proximity to the CBD,
would be missed. Melbourne is expected to experience strong employment growth, especially in
the service sector. However, this growth is premised upon available and attractive commercial
supply. Therefore, the implications would include:
>
some higher order jobs dispersing across the existing inner areas such as the CBD,
Southbank, Docklands, as well as fringe locations such as Hawthorn, Camberwell, Malvern,
etc
>
in some cases, these jobs may not come to Melbourne. The steady supply of well located
land for commercial activity which Melbourne has enjoyed has generally ensured that the
price has not increased as dramatically as in other capital cities. Should this not continue,
prices are likely to rise, supply will dry up, and some investment/employment may go to other
parts of Australia or the Australasian region.
The opportunity to realise infill residential development in close proximity to the CBD, would be
missed and the broader implication is that additional land on the fringe of Melbourne would be
required to accommodate the additional dwellings.
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The contamination and flooding issues associated with the site are likely to be significant enough
to prohibit any meaningful mixed use or residential development occurring. In some instances,
residential development may occur in the northern portion of the site, (up to 1600 dwellings,
townhouse and three-storey dwellings).
The opportunity to create a link with the west through the urban activity corridor will be missed,
and opportunities to attract higher order employment to Footscray would be less likely to occur, or
occur over a much longer timeframe.
This would not address the ongoing issues associated with the imbalance in the west, and would
present a risk to the long term productivity, liveability and equity within Melbourne.
4.6.4
Intervention options
A suite of potential government interventions has been identified to deliver the pre-conditions to
enable the overall development concept to be realised. These intervention opportunities are primarily
capital works items that address critical development constraints, lessen private sector risk and
improve the financial feasibility of intensive development of the precinct.
Some level of intervention will be necessary to stimulate and bring forward commercial (office)
development in a location that is desirable from a strategic policy objective but not yet feasible (or at
best risky) for large scale private sector development.
The level of government intervention was assessed by considering three options. Each option
represents a different degree of government intervention, both in the specification and cost of
particular capital works items, as well as the overall number of items and their spatial distribution. The
list of interventions was initially prioritised to assist in forming the options. The priorities were
categorised into those interventions which are essential to achieve the objectives, those which are
likely to be needed but required further analysis of costs and benefits, while others were deemed
beneficial but not likely to be essential.
The scope of the three options is summarised below:
Option 1 (low intervention) includes the Arden Station, the release of the VicTrack land for
development and the delivery of key interventions on Government owned land in the southern
part of the precinct around the station.
Option 2 (medium intervention) extends the spatial extent of potential interventions to land
owned by the City of Melbourne in the middle section of the precinct. Option 2 also increases the
number of interventions, namely the construction of the linear boulevard to Macaulay Road,
Environmentally Sustainable Development (ESD) infrastructure and the extent of
decontamination, modern upgrade to Macaulay Station other government trunk infrastructure.
Option 3 (high intervention) further extends the spatial extent of Government intervention to
private land in the north of the precinct. Option 3 further extends the proposed interventions such
as the scope of and extent of upgrades to existing public transport infrastructure. Option 3
includes all potential Government interventions identified for the Arden Urban Renewal Precinct
upgrades to Macaulay and Flemington Bridge Stations and more extensive acquisition.
The three intervention options and base case are estimated to deliver the development outcomes
shown in Table 4-7. University or tertiary enrolments don’t have a specific impact on the evaluation,
so they have not been identified at this stage for option, though it is assumed to be zero in the base
case.
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Table 4-7: Arden development outcome by intervention option
Total housing yield
Base
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
1,300
3,000
6,000
7,000
0
17,000
24,000
25,000
Total jobs yield
4.6.5
Preliminary option evaluation
22
Each option induces a range of economic benefits flowing from the differing levels of development .
This leads to improved agglomeration economies to business (via improved labour productivity) and
to households (via enhanced human capital development). The scale of development will also change
the area of productive agricultural land on the city’s fringe for new housing. With a reduced number of
dwellings being constructed on the city’s fringe there will also be a reduced need to provide new
infrastructure (roads, sewerage, social services etc) in growth corridors.
A summary of the economic performance of each option is provided below in Table 4-8. Option 2
provides the highest economic return.
Table 4-8: Preliminary economic performance of options (7% discount rate, $m)
Measure
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Urban consolidation and labour
productivity benefits (PV)
158.3
489.6
596.4
Costs (PV)
280.9
368.6
548.3
0.6
1.3
1.1
Benefit Cost Ratio
Preliminary financial analysis has been undertaken of the various options to determine the possible
financial outcomes in the development scenarios. While Option 1 provides the most favourable
financial return on a net present value basis, further analysis is required in the next phase to gain a
deeper understanding of the financial outcomes. For the purposes of this business case, Option 2 has
been assumed to best represent the optimum scenario overall.
4.6.6
Next steps
The above assessment implies that there is both an optimum level of development and corresponding
23
level of government intervention. During the next phase of development further investigations of
area will be completed in order to inform the ultimate structure plan. The structure planning process
itself includes significant engagement with stakeholders including the adjoining communities. During
the development of the structure plan DPCD will refine the interventions best delivered by government
and also develop an appropriate implementation strategy.
22
23
Arden Metro, Societal Benefits Assessment, SGS, 15 December 2010
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct, Working Paper (Draft), February 2011, prepared for incorporation into this business case
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4.7
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Property acquisition and development around new metro
stations
A detailed assessment of property acquisition issues, opportunities and constraints has been
undertaken to inform the selection of suitable sites for the new MM underground stations. This
includes sites for station entrances, emergency relief facilities (ERFs) and emergency exit points.
The Melbourne Metro Strategic Land Assessment was undertaken by DOT and involved ongoing
consultation with the cities of Port Phillip and Melbourne. Detailed land use and development data
was assembled on all properties within a 150 metre radius of proposed new MM stations, to evaluate
each property against a defined set of weighted criteria (see Figure 4-10 below). Criteria adopted
included technical, architectural and engineering requirements for stations, access and mobility,
acquisition risks, costs or constraints and opportunities for high quality over-site development.
The evaluation ascribed a property acquisition and development score to each site, to objectively
inform the selection of properties identified for acquisition and development in this business case.
Based on the weighted scores, sites were grouped and classified as follows:
significant opportunity site
opportunity site
moderate site subject to some constraints
poor site not suitable for MM purposes.
Figure 4-10: Strategic land assessment site evaluation matrix
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The assessment was coupled with technical and engineering project requirements to identify three
categories of land acquisition and development:
1. sites nominated for acquisition and redevelopment in the concept design presented in this
business case (offering the most balanced land acquisition, re-development and engineering
outcome)
2. alternative sites for station elements, should the sites identified in this business case be deemed
unsuitable for acquisition and re-development during later stages of project development (can
fulfil MM project requirements but less suitable and are not nominated for acquisition in this
business case)
3. sites which fulfil MM project requirements and also offer a strategic opportunity to contiguously
extend the quantum of acquisition to gain over-site development advantages (including
opportunities to consolidate small and /or lower quality land holdings).
The scope and cost estimates taken forward in this business case relate to category 1 sites only as
set out section 5.8. The merits of pursuing category 2 and 3 opportunities will be evaluated during
subsequent stages of project development. Key findings were:
None of the identified sites were ranked as poor in terms of their suitability for land acquisition and
development, when assessed against the above evaluation criteria.
Re-development of the identified sites will, in general, significantly improve the quality of
Melbourne’s urban environment by addressing current under development or poor quality
development on the respective sites. This in turn has the potential to add social, economic and
financial value to delivery of the Melbourne Metro project.
Where sites have features requiring protection, such as high quality and/or protected heritage
facades, this is outlined in the concept design and reflected in any over-site development
assumptions.
Based on the level of assessment undertaken, no residentially zoned properties are identified for
acquisition. The upper floors of one identified property are currently used for student
accommodation. A detailed examination of the requirements for this property has been
undertaken, leading to a recommendation that acquisition of the property cannot be avoided
without significant implications for the design and functionality of the CBD North Station entrance
proposed for the corner of La Trobe and Swanston Street. Further detailed property surveys will
need to be undertaken to determine whether other non-residential buildings are currently being
used for residential purposes.
All properties identified for permanent acquisition in this business case have over-site development
potential, with the exception of the Emergency Relief Facilities (ERF) at Domain and Parkville.
Alternative sites for the Domain ERF have been considered, however the benefits at this stage of
extending the ERF infrastructure to the viable alternatives do not outweigh the costs.
4.8
Vertical alignment options
The initial concept that underpinned the 2010 business case adopted a vertical alignment of the
tunnels in Swanston Street which passed underneath the existing Melbourne Underground Rail Loop
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24
(MURL) tunnels east of Melbourne Central . This resulted in relatively deep and expensive station
boxes, with CBD North being 43m deep at track level. This option included a maximum grade of
3.5%.
Following the peer review, further detailed work was undertaken during 2011 to assess
constructability and feasibility of a shallower tunnel and stations along Swanston Street and to refine
the alignment and station configurations. A shallower (higher) alignment would result in a better
outcome for passengers and may provide cost savings.
25
The constructability assessment showed that a high alignment was feasible, though the tunnels
would be more expensive to build and disruption would be more significant. The Yarra River crossing
would also present greater challenges and risks. Significant cost savings would be expected in
construction of the stations however.
A key result of the change in alignment is that the grade between CBD North and CBD South, a
distance of approximately 600 metres, has increased to 3.8%. Details of the high alignment
compared to the low alignment are shown diagrammatically in Figure 4-11.
Figure 4-11: MM vertical alignment options
The proposed high alignment allows MM tunnels to pass over the existing MURL tunnels. The key
advantage of this alignment is that it allows station depths (to platforms) to be reduced. Table 4-9
below provides details of the revised station depths (surface to rail), with CBD North approximately
33m shallower with the revised alignment.
24
Melbourne Metro 1 Concept Development Report, Technical Discipline Report 2, Underground Horizontal and Vertical
Alignments, Aurecon, Otober 2010
25
Melbourne Metro High Alignment Options, Constructability Assessment, Evans & Peck, May 2011
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Table 4-9: Station depths with tunnel alignments
Station depth (m)
Station
Low Alignment
High Alignment
Difference
Arden
17.9
13.0
-4.9
Parkville
27.5
20.5
-7.0
CBD North
42.8
10.0
-32.8
CBD South
27.0
19.0
-8.0
Domain
15.6
15.6
0
This new alignment has therefore been incorporated into the latest concept and is reported in the
26
Concept Summary Report . The benefits of the reduced station depths include:
faster evacuation times
better station amenity
faster passenger transit times
reduced vertical transportation
lower operating costs
lower capital cost
The improved access associated with the high alignment and shallower stations reduces passenger
walking time to surface at CBD North Station by around 90 seconds and CBD South Station by
around 60 seconds which represents an estimated combined NPV time savings of $239m over the life
of the project. The shallow alignment also saves in construction costs and avoids property acquisition
of a CBD building, by consolidating the ventilation facilities.
The constructability work addressed construction issues at the Yarra River crossing (including the
construction implications around Federation Square, Princes Bridge and Flinders Street Station) and
along Swanston Street.
Construction of the section of tunnel between CBD North and CBD South along Swanston Street is
likely to require a cut and cover tunnel which will impact the operation of the street. Mitigation
strategies available to reduce the impact and which are continuing to be assessed include:
Staged construction to minimise areas of impact
Relocation of trams during construction phase
Early works packages to clear long lead items such as major utilities.
26
Melbourne Metro, Concept Summary Report, Aurecon et al, November 2011
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The Yarra crossing is proposed as an immersed tube construction due to the shallow depth of the
alignment. This method requires dredging of the river bed prior to floating into the place the
prefabricate tube sections. It is proposed to construct the tube sections on the south bank of the river
on east of the existing boat sheds. The review concluded that the proposed construction method was
feasible and subject to appropriate mitigation would be acceptable from an environmental
perspective.
It proposed to test the acceptability of the proposed construction method as part of the statutory
approvals process noting that there is trade-off between minimising the construction impacts with the
long term performance of the railway.
4.9
4.9.1
Station access and mobility options
Overview
It is critical that the new stations provided by the MM project are integrated with current and future
surrounding land uses. Station Access and Mobility (SAM) studies were therefore undertaken at each
station to inform both the station design and to identify complementary works.
The SAM studies identify for each new MM station:
optimal station entrances and arrangements based on predicted passenger flows, their origins
and destinations
works that will enhance access to and from each metro station including public transport
interchange facilities and improved walk networks
impacts of the new metro stations on the surrounding area, particularly the existing transport
networks and mitigation works, and
MM construction impacts and works to mitigate these impacts.
The integration of the stations and surrounds must support the delivery of the overall vision for a
vibrant inner Melbourne and the specific project objectives. SAM principles were derived from existing
transport and land use policies applicable to the surrounding area and to encourage public transport
use. The key principles identified were:
walking is a priority mode and the street environment should encourage on-street pedestrian
activity with maximum walkability to and around inner area stations
cycling is also an important mode, the station design must make provision for cycling and respond
to the needs of cyclists when planning streets and urban development around the stations
consideration of all modes using the road network in an integrated and holistic fashion. The
SmartRoads classification reflects the appropriate priority for each mode and the strategic traffic
role that it must fulfil in the transport network. This has therefore been reflected in the MM SAM
planning. This includes appropriate access for emergency services and freight.
4.9.2
Station entrance options
The volume of boardings and alightings and access/egress modes are important determinants of
station entrance locations. These are shown below in Figure 4-12. Importantly a key consideration is
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the number of concourses to be provided at each location. Each of two CBD stations have been
provided with two concourses (at the north and south ends of the station) while the other stations
have been only provided with one (in the centre of the station).
Figure 4-12: AM peak 2046 full scheme station volumes and access-egress modes
Entries
WalkOut
ToRegionalTrain
ToBus
CarOut
ToMetro
ToTrain
ToTram
20,000
10,000
WalkIn
FromRegionalTrain
FromBus
CarIn
FromMetro
Footscray
metro
Arden
Parkville
CBD
North
CBD
South
Domain
0
Caulfield
metro
South
Yarra
metro
patronage per 2 hours
Footscray
metro
Arden
Parkville
CBD
North
CBD
South
Domain
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Caulfield
metro
South
Yarra
metro
patronage per 2 hours
Exits
FromTrain
FromTram
The following sections summarise the site specific considerations given to locating the entrances at
each of the proposed stations.
Arden
Nine potential station entrances were examined for Arden as shown in Figure 4-13. These were
assessed against the predicted distribution and volume of passengers across the precinct, which
shows patronage volumes and distributions. One station entrance was assessed as sufficient. A
location towards the western end, close to the proposed boulevard was deemed to provide the best
access given the external origins and destinations and the station arrangement. Supporting
pedestrian facilities at the surface have been identified to be provided in all directions as part of the
overall Arden redevelopment.
It should be noted that the preferred station entrance is dependent on the ultimate structure plan for
Arden and therefore the proposed location will be reviewed as part of ongoing planning for this area.
Parkville
Nineteen potential station entrance locations were proposed for the Parkville station by the various
stakeholders in the area. These were assessed using a multi-criteria analysis to optimise accessibility
and assessed against the predicted volume and distribution of passengers across the precinct
(Figure 4-14).
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Figure 4-13: Arden station entrance options and distribution of metro trips
Two main entrances on the east and west side of Royal Parade were identified as important in
meeting the expected demand from the university and biotech precincts respectively. In addition,
three special entrances were considered, notably the train-to-tram interchange in Royal Parade
(dependent on the location and design of the tram stop) and direct concourse access to the Victorian
Comprehensive Cancer Centre (VCCC) and the Peter Doherty Buildings (Figure 4-14). Direct access
to these new buildings is regarded as optional for the development proponents to consider as means
of providing segregated pedestrian access across Royal Parade and Grattan streets.
Figure 4-14: Parkville distribution of metro trips and preferred entrance options
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CBD North
Eleven potential station entrance locations were examined at CBD North to best serve the estimated
peak patronage movements (Figure 4-15), including interchanging with Melbourne Central Station.
Most CBD-destined metro passengers will walk to and from the station, rather than transfer to another
mode such as tram.
The preferred option for interchange between Melbourne Central and CBD North, which is required to
accommodate an estimated 2046 volume of 15,000 passengers in the morning peak with the full
scheme, is a subterranean concourse under La Trobe Street linking directly to the existing and
proposed concourses at each station.
Entrances 2 (north-west corner of Swanston and La Trobe Sts) and 8 (south-west corner of Swanston
and Franklin Streets) were assessed as the best primary entrances points accounting for passenger
flows and known constraints. Entrance 9 (south-east corner Swanston and Franklin Streets) would be
an alternative entrance to Entrance 8 if Franklin Street is closed to traffic east of Swanston Street.
The SAM assessment also suggests that direct connections to lanes and streets (Little La Trobe
Street and Stewart Street) could relieve possible pedestrian congestion at the proposed entrances.
These entrances were not deemed to be cost effective given the current design but should be further
considered as part of the ongoing design development.
An entrance at the south-east corner of La Trobe and Swanston Street (State Library) (Entrance 1) is
not proposed due to heritage considerations of this site. Consideration was given to a more direct
connection with the heart of RMIT University on the east side of Swanston Street (3, 4 and 5) but not
pursued to avoid disruption to RMIT’s main campus (Entrance 9 would serve this purpose). Minor
physical enhancements and traffic signal phasing prioritising pedestrian flows across Swanston Street
at La Trobe Street between RMIT may be required given the proposed entrances are located on the
west side of Swanston Street.
Figure 4-15: CBD North Station entrance options and distribution of metro trips
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CBD South
CBD South Station will operate as part of a large transit interchange, including major tram
interchanges on Flinders, Swanston and Collins Streets and the existing metropolitan train hub of
Flinders Street Station (FSS).
Twelve potential station entrance locations were examined at CBD South to serve the estimated peak
patronage movements (Figure 4-16), which critically includes interchanging with FSS.
27
A detailed examination of options for the interchange between CBD South and Flinders Street was
undertaken, a critical component of CBD South given a predicted volume of 20,000 passengers in the
2046 two-hour morning peak (with full MM scheme). The option taken forward for the purpose of the
2010 business case was a ‘paid area’ subterranean concourse at the east end of Flinders Street,
providing direct connection to the existing Flinders Street platforms via lifts (escalators were not
28
considered feasible). During 2011, further options have been considered in the context of the
shallower (high) tunnel alignment. A simpler connection between the subterranean CBD South
concourse and the existing Flinders Street concourse is now proposed (refer section 5.4 for details
and sketches). This satisfies functional requirements.
The following entrances are the optimal locations:
Entrances 3 (Swanston Street opposite St Paul’s) and 4 (City Square) are the recommended
primary entrances
Entrances 2 (Federation Square) and 6 (Flinders Lane/St Paul’s) are also deemed to be desirable
to spread pedestrian demand to the east (less crowded) side of Swanston Street. Entrance 2 at
Federation Square would be important in handling event patronage.
At the rear of Entrance 3, there is provision for a future connection to the basement level of Port
Phillip Arcade and a subterranean concourse interchange linkage to FSS.
Significant volumes of metro passengers are expected to use the Collins Street tram stop. Direct
access to the south-west corner of Swanston Street/Collins Street was considered to better support
this interchange but is not proposed due to the impact and cost of land acquisition in that location.
27
Melbourne Metro 1 Concept Development Report, Technical Discipline Reports 7 (Architecture and Urban Design),
8 (Underground stations) and 9 (Station Pedestrian Analysis), Aurecon et al, October 2010
28
Melbourne Metro, Concept Summary Report, November 2011
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Figure 4-16: CBD South entrance options and distribution of metro trips
Domain
Domain Station supports the major commercial uses along St Kilda Road, Albert Road and Toorak
Road; Melbourne Grammar School and the Shrine/Botanical Gardens. It is also located adjacent an
existing major tram interchange, which will be relocated and integrated with the metro station.
Twenty-three potential station entrances (Figure 4-17) which also shows each entrance’s functionality
by the size of the dot) were examined on the basis of a metro station being located under St Kilda
Road in the vicinity of Bowen Crescent (governed by horizontal alignment of tunnel and station).
Patronage analysis predicts that (with the full scheme) Domain Station is predicted to carry
approximately 22,000 passengers through its access points during the 2046 morning peak two hour
period, of which 8000 will interchange with tram services.
The preferred entrance locations are at 17 (corner St Kilda Road and Bowen Crescent) and 16
(corner St Kilda Road and Bromby Street), providing the best match of functionality and passenger
distribution. An additional direct access to the new tram interchange above the station in St Kilda
Road is also proposed.
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Figure 4-17: Domain station entrance location options and functionality,
distribution of metro trips
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5 Scope of preferred scheme
5.1
5.1.1
Scope definition process
Overview
The proposed scope of the MM project has been determined by identifying the minimum infrastructure
required to deliver the proposed ‘day 1’ service plan (14 additional services on the Northern Group
and 3 additional services on the Caulfield Group) and adding specific items required for future
services which are not cost effective to incorporate later (such as underground substations).
MM day 1 is a subset of the scope of the overall MM scheme, which is shown in Figure 5-1. The MM
day 1 scope is derived from the business needs and drivers, the patronage forecasts and operational
plan described earlier. These confirm the requirement to provide for an additional 14 trains per hour
on the Northern Group by around 2018, and indicate the requirement to provide for 16 x six-car trains
per hour between Sunshine and Domain on Day 1. The scope of works to enable these services to be
29
operated is based on the options assessment, engineering and other technical studies , taking
account of the comments resulting from the Peer Review Process described in this section.
The process to define the day 1 scope of MM for this business case was:
to establish the precursor and interdependent projects and committed parallel DOT programs
to define the works required to meet the business needs and deliver the operational plan on day 1
to separate the works needed on day 1 into those proposed for inclusion in the scope of MM, and
those that are assumed to be included in other projects, or programs
to define the works necessary for future proofing MM day 1 for future service upgrades, the future
construction of Dandenong Rail Capacity Program, Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines
(Melton), Melbourne Airport Rail Link, Rowville and Doncaster rail lines and the delivery of the
service plans associated with these projects.
MM has been scoped on the basis of scope of the relevant, key precursor projects currently being
delivered: Laverton Rail Upgrade, Sunbury Electrification Project, Craigieburn Stabling and
Maintenance Facility and Regional Rail Link. They form the starting point and basis for scope and
service plan for MM. The actual or latest proposed scope of works for these projects has been verified
in defining the scope of works for the MM business case.
29
Melbourne Metro Concept Development and Technical Discipline reports, Aurecon et al, November 2010
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Figure 5-1: High-level scope of ultimate Melbourne Metro scheme
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Rolling stock procurement is the subject of a separate but complementary business case. Rolling
stock procurement generally is critically interdependent with MM as it will provide the number of trains
required to operate services on day 1, as well as stabling and maintenance facilities and necessary
upgrades to traction power and overhead line equipment (OHLE) on all Northern and Caulfield Group
lines. The cost, maintenance and refurbishment of rolling stock associated with the delivery of the MM
service plan is included in the overall economic assessment for MM. It is assumed, conservatively, at
this stage that existing rolling stock types will be deployed on MM. Opportunities to reduce station box
sizes and tunnel diameter through deployment of a high capacity metro train, and hence construction
costs, will be pursued in the next phase.
The High Capacity Signalling (HCS) project is also the subject of a separate but related business
case. As this project includes Proof of Concept and a pilot program, it may not be ready for
deployment on MM, so it is assumed at this stage that HCS is not included in the MM Day 1 project.
However, if the concept be proved and piloted before completion of Melbourne Metro Rail Tunnel, it
may be considered for the MM project instead of lineside signalling. Lineside signalling upgrades are
also required across the Northern Group to facilitate the service plan. HCS is likely to be required to
enable the long-term service plan in any event.
Other parallel related programs including DDA Access to Public Transport, Metro Station upgrades,
Park and Ride, Metropolitan Bus Upgrades (rail station feeder services) and Separating Road and
Rail lines are assumed to address these specific issues in order of priority across the network. These
initiatives are therefore not included in the MM scope.
The MM Tram Plan is a complementary strategy of route changes to capitalise on the tram patronage
and service benefits caused by MM. Tram integration works in the immediate vicinity of new stations
are included in the MM scope. This is discussed further in Section 6.
Future projects are planned on the basis of future demands. It is assumed that nine-car trains will be
in operation on the Dandenong rail corridor by MM opening to satisfy demands on the Dandenong
corridor. Platform extensions at stations between Footscray and Sunbury are therefore included in the
MM Day 1 scope. Upgrades to traction power and overhead line equipment will be required in the
future on surface lines to facilitate future service plans – these are assumed to be included in the
Rolling Stock procurement program, but are included in the MM economic analysis.
Also MM permits the future or parallel construction of the Dandenong Rail Capacity Program,
Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines (formerly known as Melton Rail Upgrade), Melbourne Airport
Rail Link, Rowville and Doncaster rail lines and the delivery of the service plans associated with these
projects
The MM scope framework is summarised in Table 5-1. Further details on all these interfaces are
provided in the next section.
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Table 5-1: MM scope framework
Precursor Projects (starting point and basis for MM scope and service plan)
• Regional Rail Link
• Laverton Rail Upgrade
• Westall Rail Upgrade
• Craigieburn Train Stabling and Maintenance Facility
• Sunbury Electrification Project
Melbourne Metro (subject of this business case)
Critical Interdependent Project
Twin rail tunnels from South Kensington to South Yarra,
including:
• Rail systems (track, power, overhead, ICT etc)
30
• Lineside signalling
• New underground stations at Arden, Parkville, CBD North,
CBD South and Domain (DDA compliant) with platform
lengths for nine-car trains
‘Wider Network’ Northern and Caulfield Group surface works,
including
• Lineside signalling upgrades – Paisley to Werribee,
•
•
•
•
•
•
Broadmeadows to Craigieburn, Upfield line
Re-signalling Calder Park to Sunshine
Platform extensions for 9-car trains – Footscray to Sunbury
Second platform at Upfield
Upgrade turnback at Essendon
Brighton Beach Platform 1 Upgrade
South Yarra Crossovers
(needed to be delivered to achieve the MM service
plan)
• Rolling stock procurement including
associated stabling and maintenance facilities
and power and overhead upgrades on Sunbury,
Werribee, Craigieburn, Upfield and Dandenong
lines
Parallel programs
(assumed to address issues in order of priority
across the network and are therefore not included in
the MM scope)
•
•
•
•
•
DDA Access to Public Transport
Separating Road and Rail lines
Metro Station upgrades
Park & Ride
Metropolitan Bus Upgrades
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct interventions
Part of Ultimate MM Scheme (required to enable future
benefits of MM)
• Dandenong Rail Capacity Program, including operational
changes, longer trains, grade separations, signalling & power
upgrades
• Upgrade Regional Passenger Lines (duplication and
electrification of Melton line, Sunshine rail-rail grade
separation, stabling and duplication of sections of Ballarat
and Bendigo lines) - assumed for the purposes of this
business case to be included in the ultimate MM project
Complementary Program
• MM Tram Plan (route changes to capitalise on
the tram patronage and service benefits caused
by MM. Tram integration works in the immediate
vicinity of new stations are included in the MM
scope)
Future Projects (allowed for in MM to permit their efficient future construction and delivery of their service plans)
• Rowville Rail Link
• Doncaster Rail Link
5.2
• Melbourne Airport Rail Link
• Avalon Airport Rail Link
Peer review process
The technical advisor (TA) employed on the MM project completed a concept design of the project
based on the preferred alignment, a risk plan, a program for the delivery of the project and a cost plan
to inform the business case. Given the critical nature of this work a Peer Review of the TA’s work was
arranged. An international panel of seven experts experienced in the design, construction and
30
High Capacity Signalling is the subject of a separate business case and submission to Infrastructure Australia. It includes
Proof of Concept and pilot line program. Should the concept be proved and piloted before completion of Melbourne Metro Rail
Tunnel, it may be considered for the MM project instead of lineside signalling.
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operations of underground metro rail projects was assembled including representatives of a major
Australian construction company. The Peer Review brief included the following:
to independently, critically and constructively review the work undertaken by the TA
to determine if the work was prepared in a professional manner consistent with the current stage
of the project development
to be satisfied that the design is capable of development to a detailed design
to be satisfied that it can be constructed, commissioned within the cost plan and program
evaluate whether the cost plan, program and the risk assessment is realistic, sufficient and not
excessively conservative.
The Peer Review team was extensively briefed by the TA and the DOT team and participated in risk
workshops with the DOT and the TA formed to assess the value of both inherent and contingent risks.
The project documents prepared by the TA were also reviewed.
The Peer Review team concluded, inter alia that
..the proposed project is buildable and that the work to date has produced a robust solution in
most aspects.
Overall, the Peer Review has found no fatal flaws with the concept design, but considered the
preliminary overall project budget to be ‘inadequate’, particularly indirect costs. The Peer Review has
found that while the direct costs total for MM is appropriate, there are differences in indirect costs,
DOT costs and contingency allowances. The estimates also need better integration with the concept
design and construction program. The project team has therefore adopted a risk-based approach to
these items and has incorporated a budget contingency for these overheads in the final estimate
included in this business case.
The Peer Review Team also identified that the interface of MM with rolling stock type and HCS is a
critical issue to be resolved. As both of these issues are significant risk areas for MM, it was decided
to adopt a conservative approach and assume existing rolling stock types and existing lineside
signalling would be deployed on MM, thereby avoiding these significant risks (eg migrating from the
existing lineside signalling system to an in-cab signalling system on the existing parts of the network
in a Victorian context). However they do provide a significant opportunity for value engineering and
improved outcomes on the project. The prescribed initial design basis using X’Trapolis trains drives
tunnel size and platform requirements, which would be substantially smaller and more economic for
an industry standard metro train, thus the design basis using X’Trapolis trains will be reviewed in the
context of the overall rolling stock procurement program.
The project team has considered the Peer Review Team comments and has incorporated them as
shown in Table 5-2.
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Table 5-2: Response to peer review issues
Peer review identified issues
Response by MM project team
Improved operator (MTM) input to
define all metro operational aspects
and requirements in more detail. This
will give more clarity on proposed
operational philosophy, control of
operations and emergency events and
how the metro system is designed to
respond
MTM is currently engaged with the MM in a series of workshops to
coordinate the interfaces between the project and MTM. MTM will
have a critical function at project completion given their role as ARO
hence it is essential that all project documentation meets their safety
plan prior to MM going to market
Rolling stock configuration and the
implications for the project
The 2010 business case was initially framed on the basis that
standard high capacity metro trains would be available for Day 1
operations. The uncertainty around rolling stock procurement and the
connection to the Dandenong rail corridor increasing requirements for
rolling stock travelling through the tunnel at Day 1 has led the project
team to include existing rolling stock types in the business case.
This issue continues to be examined.
High Capacity Signalling
The business case was initially prepared on the basis that HCS will be
available for Day 1 operations of MM. An interface working group has
been established to coordinate the two projects. It has since been
determined that the risk to project completion that HCS presents
should be avoided by specifying existing lineside signalling
technology. This can be reviewed during value engineering in future
years.
Shallower vertical tunnel alignment
This has been examined in detail during 2011 and a shallower vertical
tunnel alignment has now been adopted (refer section 4.8). An
implication of this change is that tunnel gradients now reach 3.8%
over short distances – existing rolling stock types can manage these
gradients.
Significantly more geotechnical
investigation project wide to reduce
risk, particularly around currently
inferred geological interfaces
Additional geotechnical investigation is now underway.
More geotechnical investigation to
prove the viability of station cavern
excavation
Spoil disposal strategy – spoil disposal
costing presents a case study of
additional work required, in that it is
often a high cost item and the
quantum of spoil is primarily a function
of tunnel diameter and station depth
Geotechnical consultants and a constructability advisors have been
appointed to work with the TA to advise on these issues – this work is
continuing.
Construction program, in particular
development of details related to
systems ‘fitout’, commissioning and
bringing the line into service
(‘operational readiness’)
Robust project programs will continue to be developed in the next
phase of the project development - some areas require additional
definition to provide an optimal outcome. The constructability advisor
has prepared an updated program to reflect the construction method
for the high alignment.
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Peer review identified issues
Response by MM project team
A major issue is the proposed
interchange at Flinders Street Station
and CBD South, which is currently not
viable in the view of the Peer Review
Team. The challenge is, however, not
insurmountable
A simpler and more effective interchange has now been incorporated
into the design in the context of the high alignment. This provides
sufficient capacity for movement between CBD South and Flinders
Street. Existing congestion at Flinders Street will be the subject of the
design competition being run for the redevelopment of the station.
Cost plan
The Peer Review has now been provided with an updated version of
the cost report by the TA. There is agreement on direct costs however
the Peer Reviewer has recommended greater allowance for indirect
costs, design and corporate overhead and profit. The project team
has adopted a risk-based approach to these items and has
incorporated risk contingency for these overheads.
31
A second peer review has been undertaken in October 2011 to review the revised concept, which
notes and endorses progress achieved on the first review. Preliminary key outcomes of that review
are:
the proposed modifications to the scheme during 2011 results in a project definition that is
appropriate for the current stage of development and is capable of being designed, constructed
and brought into operation within current Australian and international safety expectations
High Capacity Signalling should be implemented for MM Day 1 operations, noting the significant
overlay issues with V/Line and freight trains on the surface network;
There are likely further construction cost savings, amenity and brand benefits if procurement of
high capacity metro trains (HCMT) could run on MM from Day 1. The staging of procurement of
HCMT is related to decisions on timing retirement of Comeng trains and the need to respond to
current network demands.
Provision of an expert “shadow operator” is suggested to fully detail and confirm the operational
requirements of MM.
A number of other areas were highlighted where improved definition would provide greater confidence
on overall project duration and cost. These areas continue to be examined.
5.3
5.3.1
MM tunnel
Overview
The primary element of the project is a 9-kilometre 6.2-metre diameter pair of tunnels from a portal at
South Kensington (between South Kensington and North Melbourne stations) to South Yarra
(immediately east of South Yarra station, as shown in Figure 5-2 and Figure 4-8.
The diameter, horizontal and vertical alignment of the tunnels is designed for existing rolling stock
types operating at speeds up to 80 kilometres/hour, with an absolute minimum speed of
50 kilometres/hour. The tunnels are also designed to meet the safety and emergency evacuation
requirements of the NFPA 140, which is in general use as the international standard.
Five new underground stations are to be constructed along the alignment at Arden in North
Melbourne, Parkville, CBD North (which provides interchange with the existing Melbourne Central
31
Melbourne Metro Peer Review, Supplementary Report, October 2011 (draft)
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underground loop station), CBD South (which provides interchange with the existing Flinders Street
Station) and Domain. The stations are between 10 and 20 metres underground, and will be
connected to the surface with banks and escalators and lifts. They are designed to be ‘step free’ and
fully DDA/DSAPT compliant. The station platforms are designed for the eventual operation of
220 metre long trains (nine-car X’Trapolis trains – shorter platforms are likely to be required if high
capacity metro trains are adopted). Platform screen doors are not included in the Day 1 scope as
HCS is required for this.
Figure 5-2: Preferred MM scheme
5.3.2
Horizontal and vertical alignment of tunnel
The horizontal and vertical alignments of the tunnel are shown in Figure 5-3 and Figure 5-4. The
portal at South Kensington is located on the northern side of the existing rail corridor, and in between
the main metro tracks to/from the CBD. The metro tracks from South Kensington Station descend
into the tunnel, but a flat junction is provided with the existing metro tracks running towards North
Melbourne Station to permit them to be used if the tunnel is out of operation for any reason. The
horizontal alignment of the tunnels continues in an easterly direction to the proposed Arden
underground station located under VicTrack land west of Laurens Street/Queensberry Street
intersection in North Melbourne. The vertical alignment follows a 2.5% gradient and levels off at a
depth of about 13 metres below ground level at Arden station.
From the portal, there is initially a twin track section of ‘cut and cover’ tunnel which later splits into two
single track bored tunnels as far as Arden Station. From Arden Station, there will be twin bored
tunnels will be driven using Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) as far as the proposed Domain Station.
Cross passages between the tunnels would be at regular intervals (around 240 metres) to provide for
emergency evacuation. Shafts for the same purpose and also for ventilation are provided where
distances between stations exceeds around 760 metres.
From Arden station, the line curves to the north and then to the east, rising on a 3.5% grade to a
proposed station at Parkville, located about 21 metres under Grattan Street at the intersection of
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Royal Parade. After Parkville Station, the alignment curves south and descends on a 2.5% grade
passing under the Melbourne Underground Rail Loop (MURL) tunnels to join Swanston Street at the
intersection with Franklin Street. To achieve this alignment, speed over this section is restricted to
70 kilometres/hour and then 50 kilometres/hour just before CBD North Station. CBD North Station
which provides interchange with Melbourne Central is located at a depth of 10 metres under
Swanston Street between Franklin and La Trobe Streets. The line then continues under Swanston
Street, to the CBD South Station located at a depth of 19 metres north of the Yarra River and largely
north of Flinders Street.
From CBD South, the alignment has two gentle curves to avoid the deep piled foundations of the
Alexandra Avenue Underpass but generally follows St Kilda Road to a terminal station at Domain at a
depth of 16 metres. It rises on a 3.5% grade to pass over the City Link Burnley and Domain tunnels,
and then stays generally level, passing over the South Yarra main sewer just before Domain station.
Figure 5-3: MM tunnel horizontal alignment overview
Figure 5-4: MM tunnel vertical alignment overview
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Geology
Preliminary geotechnical, hydrogeological, contamination and survey investigations have been
undertaken to inform the vertical and horizontal alignment selection. The Geotechnical Advisor has
undertaken a desk study during 2011 which builds upon the work undertaken by the Technical
Advisor in 2010. Separate reports, have been produced for the geotechnical, hydrogeological and
32
contaminated land aspects of the project . The desk study incorporates additional available
subsurface information, provides a revised geological model along the proposed alignment and
presents an updated risk assessment. The geological model and risk assessments have been used in
the development of the latest alignment.
Production of the geological model and risk assessment has highlighted areas where additional
geotechnical investigation is expected to lower the project geotechnical risk. It has also helped to
define suitable methods of geotechnical investigation.
A geological model has been developed and updated for the purposes of the Concept Development.
Further extensive investigations are underway for the reference design and subsequent stages of the
project to ensure that conditions are adequately understood and risks are appropriately managed.
The general geology of Melbourne consists of a Silurian Basement with overlying Tertiary and
Quaternary sediments and basalts. The Melbourne area is a part of a greater structural zone called
the Melbourne Trough and through the Silurian and Devonian Periods a significant geological event
occurred.
Vast amounts of muds, silts and sands, thousands of metres thick, were deposited in the trough.
During later tectonic events the sediments in the trough were lithified, folded, faulted and intruded with
dykes, sills and granite bodies. The Melbourne basement rock is called the Melbourne Formation.
A hiatus in depositions occurred until the Tertiary where deep and widespread sediments and basalt
flows were laid down in a newly formed Port Phillip Basin. A major geological structure cuts through
Melbourne on a south-east to north-east direction is called the Melbourne Warp. The Melbourne Warp
defines the boundary of the Yarra Delta. The Yarra Delta is a low depression that is central to Port
Melbourne-South Melbourne area and the surrounding Yarra River and the Maribyrnong and Moonee
Ponds Creeks. Rising and dropping seawater levels throughout the Quaternary Period saw significant
quantities of sediment comprising gravels, sands, silts and clays, as well as a basalt flow down the
paleo-Yarra River, in to the Yarra Delta.
The MM tunnel commences in the west in a section of the Yarra Delta between the Maribyrnong and
Moonee Ponds Creeks and remains in the delta until east of Arden Station. Below Queensberry
Street the tunnel vertical alignment will pass from the Yarra Delta into the Melbourne Formation. The
alignment will continue in Melbourne Formation through Parkville, CBD North and CBD South
Stations. Below the Yarra River the alignment well cut through the Yarra Delta again and pass back
into Melbourne Formation in the vicinity of Queen Victoria Gardens. The alignment rises to pass over
CityLink and it also passes into Brighton Group. For the remainder of the alignment to Domain, the
alignment passes either through Melbourne Formation or Brighton Group. The tunnel’s geological
long section is presented in Figure 5-5.
32
Golder Associates, 2011
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Figure 5-5: MM tunnel geological long section
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33
The hydrogeological interpretive report
presents a preliminary numerical hydrogeological
modelling, based on limited data and discusses high level groundwater issues associated with the
proposed alignment. The modelling considered a fully tanked system whereby the stations tunnels are
sealed against groundwater inflow, and a situation whereby the stations are considered to be drained
(with the exception of Arden Street). The risk register has been updated to incorporate the findings of
this work.
There is strong potential for contaminated soils and groundwater to be encountered along the
proposed alignment, presenting a potential risk to the project that at present has been assessed as
medium to high, based on available information. These risks have also been updated in the updated
risk register.
5.3.3
Signalling
New lineside signalling is assumed for the MM tunnel, while the existing lineside signalling will be
upgraded at several locations on the Northern Group to accommodate the Day 1 operating plan:
Sunbury line: Calder Park to Sunshine;
Werribee line: Paisley to Werribee upgrade;
Broadmeadows line: Broadmeadows to Craigieburn
Upfield line
Any upgrades to the Dandenong rail corridor is part of the Dandenong Rail Capacity Program. This is
on the basis of the following key findings and outcomes of the signalling investigations on the existing
wider network:
the capacity of the majority of the existing signalling infrastructure on some parts of the Northern
Group is insufficient to meet the proposed MM Day 1 Concept of Operation
the condition of the existing signalling infrastructure on all parts of the network except , particularly
in the inner area bounded by Sunshine to Caulfield is suitable for Day 1 functional requirements
Between the tunnel portal and Sydenham, the system will have the capability to deliver 16 trains per
hour to be operated on Day 1. Between Sunshine and Sunbury, the signalling system will naturally
support the operation of V/Line and freight services on metro tracks.
The scope of signalling works will be examined very closely in the next phase, in particular the merits
and risks of introducing High Capacity Signalling (HCS) from Day 1. It is likely that HCS will be
required to deliver the ultimate service plan and acceptable reliability levels in the future, though
lineside signalling is acceptable for Day 1 operations.
5.3.4
Traction power and Overhead Line Equipment (OHLE)
Traction power infrastructure and OHLE will be provided in the running tunnels for the operation train
operations at a frequency of 24 200 metre-long trains per hour. It is not deemed cost effective to
stage this provision (ie to provide power capacity for Day 1 operations of 16 trains per hour), and then
later construct further substation capacity underground for ultimate operation of 24 trains per hour.
This will be confirmed during the next stage of design.
33
Golder Associates, 2011
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5.4
5.4.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
MM stations
Context
The stations must protect, rejuvenate or expand important centres and precincts, celebrate and
protect significant city buildings, spaces and connections and provide appropriate public domain at
each station entrance (Figure 5-6). The Melbourne Metro aims to create a unique place and identity at
each location, which exhibit differing environments as discussed below. Together, they must support
the delivery of the vision for a vibrant inner Melbourne.
Figure 5-6: MM stations – urban context
Arden must integrate within a mixed use urban renewal site which has great potential to create a new
community and employment centre. It has an opportunity to become the precinct centre in the form of
open space, while retaining opportunity for air-rights development above the station.
Parkville sits at the nexus between academia and health –
the University of Melbourne campus to the east with the
medical and hospital precinct to the immediate west.
CBD North should integrate with the existing city fabric – the
retail heart at Melbourne Central, State Library, RMIT and
the existing Melbourne Central Station.
CBD South is located within a civic and historically
significant part of Melbourne, requiring an intervention into
City Square, and connections into the iconic Flinders Street
Station, the tram network and Southbank.
Domain is close to the Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert
Park, a parkland environment with many large public
gatherings and events throughout the year. It is situated on
St Kilda Road, an iconic boulevard of commercial and residential properties.
A summary of the MM underground stations and their characteristics are described in Figure 5-7.
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Melbourne Metro
Figure 5-7: MM underground station characteristics and design parameters
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< Arden station in North Melbourne is
located on VicTrack land to the west of
under VicTrack land west of Laurens
Street/Queensberry Street intersection
in North Melbourne. It supports the
development of the Arden Urban
Renewal Precinct, which is currently
34
being investigated . The station will
have an island platform, four
entrances at street level and a single
ground level concourse.
Parkville station is located under
Grattan Street, at the intersection of
Royal Parade. The design proposes
an island platform and a single ticket
concourse under the junction of Grattan Street and Royal Parade. The concourse is served by three
entrances located on the north side of
Grattan Street and on a widened footway,
one either side of Royal Parade, servicing
the Royal Melbourne Hospital precinct and
the Melbourne University, and one to directly
serve a proposed new tram super-stop on
Royal Parade. No elms will be damaged in
the construction of this station.
The Parkville station concept provides future
proofing for a potential North-South tunnel
from Clifton Hill.
CBD North station is located under
Swanston Street between Franklin and
La Trobe Streets. This station has an island
platform and provides interchange within the
paid concourse of the existing Melbourne
Central underground loop station, and tram
services in Swanston Street (Figure 5-8).
The patronage at this station warrants a
concourse and entrance at each end of the
station. The north entrance is located on the
southwest corner of the junction of
Swanston Street and Franklin Street and the
south entrance on the northwest corner of
the junction of Swanston Street and La
Trobe Street.
34
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct Development Working Paper, February 2011
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Figure 5-8: Concept for CBD North Station
CBD South Station is located north of the Yarra River and largely north of Flinders Street. Current
design provided an interchange with platforms at FSS. There is an opportunity to design the
interchange within the paid concourse of the existing Flinders Street Station, and the tram services in
Swanston and Flinders Streets. It has two main entrances to surface. The northern entrance is
located in City Square on the eastern side of Swanston Street, and a southern entrance on the
western side of Swanston Street adjacent to the Young and Jackson Hotel. Two additional entrances
to surface radiating out from the southern entrance box are located on the footpath outside St Paul’s
Cathedral on the eastern side of Swanston Street and also in Federation Square within the ‘Western
Shard’ structure which sits over the visitors centre. Figure 5-9 shows the concept for the station.
Figure 5-9: Concept for CBD South Station (long section)
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Business Case
The station works exclude any major upgrading of Flinders Street Station, which are the subject of a
separate study (refer Section 6 for further detail). The initial concept for this interchange did not fully
resolve a feasible scheme which could accommodate the pedestrian flows and ‘access for all’
requirements. A more holistic approach to the station design was considered appropriate.
A simpler Flinders Street concourse connection was therefore developed during 2011 (refer Figure
5-10), following the peer review of the scheme. Some further refinement will be necessary but overall
the concept is feasible and meets all functional requirements and accounts for the shallower tunnel
alignment and revised CBD South station concept.
Figure 5-10: Concept for CBD South Station Interchange with Flinders Street Station
Domain Station is located under St Kilda Road between the junctions with Domain and Toorak
Roads. The station will have an island platform (Figure 5-11). The station has three entrances to a
single subsurface concourse towards the centre of the station. Entrances are located in Bromby
Street on the east side of St Kilda Road, Bowen Crescent on the west side, and one which will
provide direct access to a tram super-stop in St Kilda Road. The No. 8 tram would be rerouted from
Park Street-Domain Road to Toorak Road to provide passenger access to the station via this tram
super-stop. The super-stop will take over the functions of the current Domain interchange which
would be removed.
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Business Case
Figure 5-11: Concept for Domain Station (ground level plan)
5.4.2
Station access & mobility
The Station Access and Mobility (SAM) studies identified supporting measures which should be
included in the scope to support the station. These were categorised as follows:
MM-induced measures – those SAM works which are required to support MM or address impacts
of MM and are otherwise not being implemented under other programs or projects such as
Swanston Street upgrade
supporting measures for any surrounding redevelopment (ie Arden interventions – refer
Section 5.9)
other recommended transport measures in the vicinity of stations that should and can only be
considered in a precinct/corridor master-plan
any measures that would be delivered via other ongoing programs or projects from any source.
The supporting measures included in the scope of the MM include:
reinstatement to the standard required (with any appropriate relocation) of the underlying access
networks that pre-existed (or are likely to pre-exist) prior to MM-construction (footpaths, cycling
facilities, tram stops/interchange points, bus (including Nightrider facilities (where still required)),
traffic ways, taxi ranks, goods loading areas
provision of sufficient new or additional access and mobility measures for the station to be
established commensurate with its scale allowing for future demands.
The assessment of a relatively localised suite of supporting measures for all stations cannot and has
not been viewed in isolation of wider road network implications. The effects of Swanston Street
closure have already been anticipated and a reconfiguration and upgrade are being delivered by City
of Melbourne – MM works will be coordinated as appropriate to minimise re-work.
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Business Case
The surrounding transport networks and the impacts of any road network reconfigurations at Arden,
Parkville and Domain need to be better understood and quantified through strategic network
modelling in advance of the refinement of any specific design measures in collaboration with
VicRoads, DPCD and City of Melbourne. The SmartRoads classification will be an important guiding
framework, as it reflects the appropriate priority for each mode and the strategic traffic role that it must
fulfil in the transport network, including appropriate access for emergency services and freight.
Particular SAM issues at each station are summarised below.
Arden Station (Queensberry Street)
Wider supporting measures have been cognisant of proposed precinct planning for the area.
Any services (eg the existing bus service from North Melbourne Station to Parkville) that may be
made redundant by the introduction of MM may be re-routed for greater network effectiveness. No
additional tram services serving the area were considered warranted in the Arden redevelopment
interventions.
Parkville Station (Grattan Street)
A new tram interchange in Royal Parade integrated with the station complement new network
demands. The surrounding walking and cycling network will be linked into the station surrounds.
Some new or enhanced physical connections will be created. Traffic flows on both Grattan Street and
Royal Parade will be reappraised to facilitate efficient ongoing network connectivity. Provision will be
made for additional bicycle facilities to meet new station-oriented demand.
CBD Stations
Key MM scope items will include:
creation of sufficient train-to-MM interchange between the proposed stations and their closest rail
linkage points
reinstatement of Swanston Street tram stops to be established during the Swanston Street
redevelopment by the City of Melbourne
provision for additional bicycle facilities.
Ongoing upgrading of the walking and cycling network is anticipated across the city fabric in addition
to new or relocated tram network connections to William Street. Some tram stop rationalisation will
also be ongoing. All of these works will be delivered by separate programs.
Domain Station
A new tram interchange in St Kilda Road, integrated with the new metro station and with appropriate
track and route adjustments to facilitate these will complement new network demands.
The walking and cycling network adjacent the new station will be linked into the station surrounds with
provision for new bicycle facilities at the station. Some new or enhanced physical connections will be
created. Traffic flows on both St Kilda Road will be reappraised to facilitate efficient ongoing network
connectivity.
Ongoing upgrading of the walking and cycling network in the broader precinct will be part of wider
precinct planning.
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5.4.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Construction impacts and responses
It is proposed that MM stations will be constructed using cut and cover methods. Where construction
is anticipated to be on existing streets (at all sites except Arden Station), the total construction site will
be segmented to lessen impact and to maintain acceptable arrangements for pedestrians, bicycles,
trams and other vehicles. There is an opportunity to use initial road closures or partial closures to
facilitate new patterns of travel and movement in the areas surrounding new stations. Tram services
can be maintained by moving them across the road pavement consistent with segmented excavation
movement or relocated to alternative routes – this continues to be examined by the constructability
advisor. Once the cavern is excavated and supported, services can be restored over the cavern.
The volume of construction-based truck traffic, particularly that carrying spoil, will be a significant
factor in this area during construction that could impact the wider road network and the community
closer to the site. This will require comprehensive construction traffic management planning.
All ambulance and emergency services access to the hospitals and medical facilities at Parkville will
need to be maintained during construction.
Figure 5-12: Construction method
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5.4.4
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Retail offer
35
An assessment of the market potential for retailing in each of the MM stations has been undertaken
– an overview is provided in Appendix 1. The MM concept plans show the ultimate retail space
available in each MM station. This provision is marginally less than the sustainable maximum
calculated floorspace. Retail space within the stations can initially be provided at a level less than the
ultimate and expanded over time to sustainably accommodate increases in demand. This will
encourage strong initial retail performance and link ongoing provision to actual patronage growth.
Total estimated revenue from in-station retail outlets, vending machines, ATMs, data/telecom and
advertising is more than $13 million per annum (2011 prices).
5.5
5.5.1
South Kensington tunnel portal – Sunbury
Track work
No upgrades to track speeds are proposed. No work to upgrade track beyond works included in the
MTM asset upgrade program is proposed. Limited track work is proposed to connect the tunnel with
the existing metro tracks at the portal in South Kensington. These works are consistent with the
scope of the precursor Sunbury Electrification Project and Regional Rail Link projects. The at-grade
connection to independent goods lines at Sunshine will be maintained. The signalling system will be
designed to support continued freight movements to and from the corridor.
5.5.2
Signalling
Section between Calder Park and Sunshine will be re-signalled.
5.5.3
Traction power and overhead line equipment (OHLE)
Upgrades to permit the operation of 16 HCMT per hour on Day 1 are included in the HCMT Project.
Provision in the design has been made to allow for further upgrades to 24 trains per hour as part of
the Melton Rail Upgrade Project.
5.6
5.6.1
Northern Loop, Frankston loop and Cross-City Metros
Craigieburn line
The following works are included for the Craigieburn line to facilitate the creation of the Northern Loop
metro and an extra four train services per hour to be operated from Craigieburn:
reconfigure the track work at Essendon to enable trains to start from Platform 2
upgrade and extend Platform 3 to 155 metres to enable it to be used by metro services from
Craigieburn
signalling upgrades for Day 1 between Broadmeadows and Craigieburn to deliver re-occupation
times of no more than 150 seconds and ability to operate V/Line and freight trains.
Any upgrades of traction power and OHLE required to deliver the train services are part of the HCMT
project.
35
Metro Melbourne Retail Advisory, Colliers International, November 2010
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5.6.2
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Upfield line
The following works are included for the Upfield line to facilitate the creation of the Northern Loop
metro and an extra two train services per hour to be operated from Upfield:
second platform is provided at Upfield
upgrade of existing line side signalling.
Any upgrades of traction power and OHLE required to deliver the train services are part of the HCMT
project.
5.6.3
Werribee line
To facilitate the creation of the Cross-City Loop metro and an extra five train services per hour to be
operated from Werribee, an upgrade of the existing lineside signalling system between Paisley
(Altona Junction) and Werribee to deliver re-occupation times of no more than 150 seconds is
included in the MM scope.
Any upgrades of traction power and/or OHLE required to deliver the services are part of the HCMT
project.
5.6.4
Sandringham and Frankston lines
An additional three peak hour city-bound services will be enabled on Sandringham and Frankston as
part of the MM Day 1 concept of operations. Additional surface works are required to enable these
services to operate:
Upgraded platform and facilities at Brighton Beach to enable turn-backs
Cross-overs are required at South Yarra to enable trains to turn back at South Yarra.
stabling at North Melbourne (part of rolling stock procurement)
No works are required on the Frankston line
5.7
Tram integration works
Based on patronage impacts and tram re-routings identified in the Melbourne Metro Tram Network
Plan (Section 2), the supporting tram infrastructure scope to support each metro station includes:
Parkville Station – island tram platform stop in Royal Parade, north of Grattan Street. The
platform stop has an entrance into the station concourse at its southern end
CBD North Station – accessible tram stop as per City of Melbourne endorsed scheme
CBD South Station – accessible tram stops in their existing or planned locations
Domain Station – island tram platform stop relocated from north of Domain Road to south of
Domain Road just north of Bowen Crescent with an integrated entrance to the station concourse
at its southern end.
The requirement to terminate trams at the Domain tram interchange is to be eliminated through the
complementary tram plan by linking the William Street tram (Route 55) to Domain Road (Route 8)
trams (not part of MM scope). This reduces the footprint required for the tram interchange and
improves the efficiency of the tram network.
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Business Case
As the current Domain tram interchange site is too constrained to be able to be redeveloped to
include an integrated metro station entrance, the existing tram interchange north of Domain Road will
be relocated south of Domain Road above the new Domain metro station (the preferred site with
respect to the vertical and horizontal alignments of the tunnel and station).
5.8
Property acquisition
This section describes the assumptions behind the proposed property acquisition and the scope
associated with MM.
5.8.1
Permanent property acquisition assumptions and scope
The project has been designed to minimise private property impacts and associated disruption.
The horizontal alignment of the new rail tunnel is largely contained under Crown land, generally road
reserves and parkland. Similarly, the station boxes are proposed to be located under road reserves
or within industrial land owned by VicTrack. Permanently occupied Crown land will need to be
reserved for transport purposes.
In several locations where road reserves or parkland are not available, adjoining freehold properties
will need to be acquired for a range of permanent structures such as station entrances, emergency
egress routes, the tunnel portal and emergency relief shafts.
Tunnel depths along the alignment vary due to rail geometry and factors such as station depths,
existing infrastructure, surface topography, Melbourne Underground Rail Loop and CityLink. The
project proposes to acquire stratum to construct the tunnel. The stratum is assumed for the purposes
of the property acquisition to be defined by:
the design width of the tunnels
a margin of one metre above the designed top of the tunnel
the centre of the earth (unless the title is depth limited – see Figure 5-13).
The margin of one metre above the top of the tunnel is intended to allow flexibility as the design is
refined, avoiding the need for further property acquisition processes to change the envelope postapproval. A significant contingency is also included in the acquisition costs to allow some flexibility in
the width and depth of the stratum required.
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Business Case
Figure 5-13: Stratum property acquisition envelopes
Where the top of the tunnel is 6.9 metres or more below existing building footings, it is assumed there
is a sufficient level of cover to allow tunnel construction without affecting the property above. In these
cases, the project will only acquire the stratum.
Where the distance from the top of the tunnel to the existing building footings is less than 6.9 metres,
it is assumed that the project will acquire the whole relevant property title.
As the alignment runs through parts of Melbourne which have been developed for a long time, the
majority of titles impacted were alienated from the Crown prior to 1891 and are not depth restricted
(ie they run to the centre of the Earth).
Some 10 titles on the proposed alignment are depth-limited with Crown land below the lower limit of
these titles. In these cases, the freehold strata will be acquired and the Crown land will need to be
reserved for project purposes.
Table 5-3 provides details of the number of private properties that will be acquired for MM for
permanent ground level structures and stratum. The table also shows the area of Crown land that will
be permanently reserved for these purposes.
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Business Case
Table 5-3: Summary of properties to be permanently acquired/reserved by type
Property numbers or area
Property type
By parcels
By occupancies
56
61
0
0
Residential (strata)
291
293
Business (whole properties)
44
110
Business (part properties)
8
8
174
175
Parkland or Public Domain
15,295 sqm
15,295 sqm
Road Reserves (permanent closures)
6,022 sqm
-
Residential (whole properties)
36
Residential (part properties)
Business (strata)
Table 5-4 describes the Crown land parcels that will be permanently affected by the project.
Table 5-4: Summary of Crown land affected by project
Description of land parcel
Location
Project use
3 No. parcels along City
Link/Moonee Ponds Creek
Area bounded by West Melbourne
Terminal Station, Arden Street rail
Sidings, Arden Street and Dynon
Road
Strata reservation for rail tunnel
Small parcel for emergency
relief shaft
Southern corner of Grattan Street and
Flemington Road, Parkville
Emergency relief shaft
Melbourne University
Square Car Park
Southern side of Grattan Street
between Berkeley and Barry Streets,
Parkville
Stratum reservation for rail tunnel
Parkland – Lincoln Square
Bounded by Swanston, Bouverie and
Lincoln Square North & South Streets,
Carlton
City Baths
Bounded by Franklin, Swanston and
Victoria Streets, CBD
10 No. reserves for
verandas?
Various locations along Swanston
Street within CBD
Strata reservation for rail tunnel and/or
station box
4 No. reserves for Princes
Walk and Yarra River
Immediately to east of Princes Bridge,
CBD
3 No. parcels of parkland –
Alexandra Gardens
Bounded by St Kilda Road, Alexandra
Avenue and Capital City Trail,
opposite Arts Precinct
36
These properties comprise a residential tower in La Trobe Street and a small apartment building in St Kilda Road.
Page 155 of 321
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Business Case
Description of land parcel
Location
Project use
Queen Victoria Gardens
Bounded by St Kilda Road, Alexandra
and Linlithgow Avenues – opposite
Arts Precinct
Alexandra Park
Immediately to east of St Kilda Road,
above City Link tunnels
2 No. parcels for City Link
Tunnels
Immediately to east of St Kilda Road
below Alexandra Park
Kings Domain/Shrine
Bounded by St Kilda Road, Birdwood
Avenue and Domain Road
Strata reservation for rail tunnel/station
box
Fawkner Park
Bounded by and immediately to the
south of Toorak Road, South Yarra
Strata reservation for rail tunnel,
emergency egress and at-grade use
for construction sites (temporary)
Strata beneath road
reserves
Various along alignment
Generally strata reservation for rail
tunnel, station boxes
5.8.2
Temporary occupation of land
MM will also require sites for temporary uses, such as construction set-down and site amenities at
each new station, entry/exit points for tunnel boring machines, a licensed site for dealing with
contaminated spoil and a site for a concrete batching plant to provide concrete for the project.
This land may be either freehold or Crown land leased for the five-year duration of construction.
Where the land is Crown land, it will be reinstated and returned to its former use at the end of the
project.
Table 5-5 summarises the number of properties and the amount Crown land required for construction
purposes. The 17,830 square metres of parkland to be occupied is a portion of Fawkner Park
immediately to the south of Toorak Road. There will also be occupation of various roads including
Grattan Street, Swanston Street, St Kilda Road and others that will be identified as further design
work is progressed.
Table 5-5: Summary of properties to be temporarily occupied by type
Property type
Property numbers or area
Residential (whole properties)
0
Residential (part properties)
0
Business (whole properties)
2
Business (part properties)
1
Parkland or Public Domain
17,830 m
Road Reserves
This information will be known when
more detailed design work has
progressed
2
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5.8.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Property acquisition costs
The costs of securing land for MM fall into a number of categories:
acquisition of real property interests (both fee simple and leasehold)
compensation of loss of possible development opportunities in some cases
compensation for restraint of adequate access to adjacent properties
compensation for severance
solatium
compensation for disturbance in business premises
acquisition of native title rights and interests (assessed at zero for MM)
compensation for reasonable costs incurred by property owners in the acquisition process
DOT and claimants’ costs for legal services, survey, site investigations, due diligence, valuations
associated with the property acquisition process and stamp duty on replacement properties.
Compensation assessment and payment will be made in accordance with the provisions of Parts 3 to
6 of the Land Acquisition and Compensation Act 1986 (LACA).
The property acquisition costs for MM are outlined in section 9, and a detailed breakdown is shown in
Appendix 4. These costs have been developed from a comprehensive valuation exercise involving
37
the Valuer General .
5.8.4
Disposal of property rights and interests surplus to the project
It is expected that freehold interests, whether whole sites or air-rights will be offered to the market for
sale at the end of construction (refer following section for discussion of these opportunities).
Crown land temporarily occupied for the duration of MM construction will be re-reserved for the
purpose for which it was used prior to the project’s interest for example as parkland, road reserves.
5.9
Property acquisition and development around new metro
stations
A detailed assessment of property acquisition issues, opportunities and constraints has been
undertaken to inform the selection of suitable sites for the new MM underground stations, as reported
in the options assessment section.
All properties identified for permanent acquisition in this business case have strong over–site
development potential. The over-site development will incorporate the required station element(s),
such as a station entrance for example, whilst also delivering an integrated development outcome
which adds value to MM and the wider urban environment.
A conceptual assessment of the development potential of each site has been undertaken by the
project team. The assumed development potential forms the basis of a residual land value (RLV) of
each site, prepared by the Victorian Valuer General. The RLV represents the estimated residual value
of the asset (ie the land) to the acquiring authority.
37
Estimates of Compensation for Land Acquisition, MM and MM2 Rail Project, Valuer General Victoria, October 2010
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Figure 5-14 and Table 5-6 below identify the sites nominated for acquisition in this business case and
the potential over-site development and its potential RLV. The Valuer General has estimated value of
the five oversite development rights/opportunities for MM at $73–87 million.
More detailed development concepts, feasibility studies and more refined residual land valuations will
be prepared during the project definition phase of the project, which includes the reference design.
Figure 5-14: Potential over-site development locations
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Table 5-6: Over-site development concepts and estimated residual land value
Preliminary over-site
development concept
Estimated
residual land
value
Mixed use 10 storey development
incorporating CBD North Station
entrance on the corner of Franklin and
Swanston Street, Melbourne. Potential
to incorporate institutional (RMIT) use
in development
$8–$9m
Mixed use development incorporating
CBD North Station entrance on the
corner of La Trobe and Swanston
Street. 10 storeys fronting Swanston
Street. 41 storeys fronting La Trobe
street. Ground floor retailing. Upper
floors residential
$34–$41m
ERF proximate to the corner of
Lt Lonsdale and Swanston Street,
Melbourne. Four storeys. Ground floor
retailing. Upper floors residential
$10–$12m
CBD South Station Entrance
proximate to the corner of Flinders
and Swanston Street. 10 storeys.
Ground floor retailing. Upper floors
residential
$14–$17m
CBD South ERF proximate to the
corner of Lt Collins and Swanston
Street, Melbourne. Existing heritage
facades must be retained. Height
consequentially limited to eight
storeys. Ground floor retailing. Upper
floors residential
$7–$8m
Key acquisition and
development parameters
Site
Total properties: 2
1 – CBD North
Concept Design
Station Entrance
(North)
Total area: 1379 sq.m
Max Height: 40 m
Zoning: CCZ1
Heritage facades may
require protection
Total properties: 7
2
2 – CBD North
Concept Design
Station Entrance
(South)
Total area: 3256 m
Max Height: 40 m fronting
Swanston Street.
Unrestricted fronting
La Trobe Street
Zoning: CCZ1
Total properties: 5
3 – CBD North
Concept Design
Emergency Relief
Facility
Total area: 730 m
2
Max Height: 40 m
Zoning: CCZ1
Heritage facades may
require protection
Total properties: 3
4 – CBD South
Concept Design
Station Entrance
2
Total area: 1175 m
Max Height: 40 m
Zoning: CCZ2
Total properties: 2
5 – CBD South
Concept Design
Emergency Relief
Facility
Total area: 405 m
2
Max Height: 40 m
Zoning: CCZ2
Protected heritage facades
must be retained
Total
5.10
$73–87m
Arden urban renewal precinct
As identified in the options assessment section, the preferred option used as the basis of this
business case and to be taken forward for further assessment in the Arden urban renewal precinct is
the medium government intervention (option 2). The interventions will capitalise the provision of the
new Arden metro station and catalyse a new CBD-fringe mixed-use office precinct, comprising a
spine of commercial, retail and residential along a new major north-south boulevard (refer Figure
5-15). It will contain architecturally significant office buildings that act as the gateway to the Dynon
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Business Case
urban activity corridor and will allow for the provision of best practice Environmentally Sustainable
38
Development (ESD), including a tri-generation power facility . The site is expected to accommodate
up to 6000 new dwellings and over 24,000 jobs with the proposed intervention option.
Figure 5-15: Indicative layout of redeveloped Arden precinct
The proposed interventions at this stage are envisaged to include:
38
Road network development:
>
extension of Victoria Street into the VicTrack site
>
extension of Boundary Road (Central Boulevard) from Victoria Street to Arden Street, through
the Lost Dogs home and City of Melbourne Depot
Public realm improvements:
>
Public art and public realm installations
>
Pedestrian link – Arden metro/North Melbourne Station
Site preparation:
>
Contamination mitigation – southern precinct
>
Contamination mitigation – middle precinct
>
Primary flooding and drainage works
Trunk infrastructure delivery (non standard):
>
ESD – Tri-generation distribution infrastructure
>
ESD – Recycled water infrastructure (third pipe)
>
ESD – Eco village WSUD initiatives
Gas-fired power generating facility, which uses excess heat generated for heating and cooling
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Community facilities:
>
Provision of community facilities (TBC)
>
Central car parking facility (TBC)
Public Transport Infrastructure:
>
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Station upgrade – Macaulay
Land Acquisition and Site Consolidation:
>
Central boulevard land acquisition – middle precinct
>
Book transfer of southern precinct public land
>
Rezoning of privately owned northern precinct to appropriate use(s)
Project Management:
>
General development facilitation fund
>
Delivery agency project management funds
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6 Project interfaces, future proofing and
complementary programs
6.1
Introduction
Further to the MM scope framework presented in the previous section, this section provides further
detail on how MM is integrated with other network infrastructure either already implemented, planned
seven-stage rail capacity upgrade plans or identified for the longer term. It also provides a brief outline
of the projects which are parallel and complementary to MM. The detailed project interfaces with MM
are also documented.
6.2
6.2.1
Precursor projects
Laverton Rail Upgrade
This project has enabled additional peak services to be introduced on the Werribee line that start and
finish at Laverton Station. The upgrade also provided track, platform and signalling infrastructure to
remove the bottleneck at the Laverton rail junction and at sections of single track in the Altona Loop.
This will help Werribee trains run more efficiently and reliably and to provide more express services,
thus introducing travel time savings.
Further signalling upgrades (and power upgrades as part of HCMT project) will need to be included in
MM scope to support an additional five peak hour services on the Werribee line for MM Day 1.
6.2.2
Sunbury Electrification Project
The Sunbury Electrification Project involves increased service provision with electrification works
between Sunbury and Watergardens. This includes stabling at Sunbury station. The project provides
five substations at 2MW rated capacity at sufficient chainage to support MM Day 1 operations.
6.2.3
Regional Rail Link
Regional Rail Link (RRL) project will provide additional capacity and reliability for Geelong services
through to Southern Cross Station with a rail corridor from Werribee to Southern Cross Station. The
current design will separate Melton, Ballarat, and Bendigo diesel services from the Sunshine to
Domain metro line and thus avoids the need for a rail grade separation at the South Kensington MM
portal. RRL project will also deliver road-rail grade separations at two locations along Anderson Road
on both Melton and Sunbury lines to improve safety and to reduce traffic congestion.
6.3
6.3.1
Future proofing
Future service plans
The Concept of Operations (CoO) indicates that a peak hour service of 24 x nine-car trains will
eventually be needed to cater for forecast passenger demand. This will require longer platforms and
increased traction power compared to day 1. As noted above, it is proposed to include platform
lengths for nine-car trains in the tunnel.
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On the wider network, it is proposed that platform lengths would be extended in accord with the
requirements in the CoO. Passive provision will be made for such lengthening in any wider network
surface works undertaken for MM for day 1.
Traction power for the eventual requirements is to be provided in the tunnel. On the wider network,
passive provision will be made for such traction power and overhead line equipment upgrades in any
works undertaken for MM for day 1.
6.3.2
Physical segregation of V/Line Passenger services and freight trains
The assumption made for MM (informed by rail simulation modelling) is that on day 1 there would
continue to be some use of metropolitan tracks by V/Line and freight services. Works to physically
separate these services can be provided after day 1 if/when this is considered necessary to achieve
acceptable reliability. This requirement could arise for example if the required reliability of the V/Line
and/or the metro services cannot be met at some time in the future with tracks being shared. Any
wider network surface works undertaken for day 1 will make passive provision only in the designs for
this potential future requirement.
6.3.3
New stations on the Sunbury line
Passive provision will be made for future stations at Calder Park, Holden Road and Jackson’s Hill in
any wider network surface works undertaken for MM on Day 1.
6.3.4
Dandenong Rail Capacity Program
The Dandenong Rail Capacity (DRC ) Program is a staged investment to address critical capacity
issues on the Dandenong rail corridor including provision for operational and timetable changes,
longer trains, signalling and power upgrades, road-rail grade separations and trackwork. These
investments will need to be progressively implemented over the next decade, commencing in the next
two years. It is assumed that with the long lead and construction timeframes for MM, a significant
component of the DRC works will be completed by MM opening. It is assumed that longer (9-car)
trains will be ready for operations by MM opening, hence longer platforms will be required on the
Sunbury corridor as part of MM scope.
While MM has strong economic performance on its own, the DRC Program permits future benefits of
MM, and is therefore included in the cost-benefit analysis of the ultimate MM scheme. Parts or all of
the DRC Program can still be delivered in advance of, after or in parallel with MM, but maximum
benefits are achieved for the rail network when both are completed.
The DRC Program works will integrate and allow for the future connections to the Port of Hastings
and the proposed future rail line to Rowville, which is currently envisaged to connect to Dandenong
rail corridor at Huntingdale.
6.3.5
Future network development
The Metropolitan Planning Strategy (MPS), incorporating an integrated transport strategy and refined
rail priorities, is currently being prepared. The need or priority for MM and the DRC Program will not
change, as urban development patterns for the next ten to fifteen years are already largely set.
The effects of the MPS will begin to reshape Melbourne’s urban form, and hence influence the rail
priorities, beyond this timeframe. Feasibility studies are underway for upgraded or extended rail lines
to Rowville, Doncaster Melbourne and Avalon Airports. The sequencing and staging of metropolitan
and regional rail upgrades beyond MM and the DRC Program will be determined following these
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feasibility studies and in the context of the MPS. The compatibility of MM with these initiatives is
discussed below.
Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines (UPRL) (previously known as Melton Rail Upgrade) –
staged duplication, electrification and upgrade of the line from Sunshine to Melton and duplication
of sections of Ballarat and Bendigo lines to meet the growth occurring along these corridors.
Connecting the MM rail tunnel to the Dandenong rail corridor means that the operating plans on
the Sunshine rail corridor needs to match that on Dandenong. Both corridors are limited to 16
trains per hour without further works. Upgrading parts of the Melton rail line (ie components of the
overall Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines project) is one option to provide additional capacity
on the Sunshine rail corridor. It is assumed that nine-car trains will be operating on Dandenong
rail corridor upon opening of MM, meeting demand requirements on both Dandenong and
Sunshine rail corridors, though demands on the regional corridors will need to be met by the
progressive upgrading of those rail lines.
39
The Regional Rail Line Upgrades and Regional City Program , which aims to further strengthen
the economic and social integration of regional centres and metropolitan Melbourne, includes this
project, together with urban redevelopment initiatives on regional rail corridors at Footscray,
Sunshine and Toolern. This project is currently on the Infrastructure Australia pipeline at an “Early
Stage”.
This project includes duplication and electrification from Melton to Sunshine, including rail/rail
grade separation at Sunshine and upgrades to Bendigo and Ballarat lines. This project is
required to increase services through the MM tunnel to 24 trains per hour. The timing of the
implementation of the Melton project is the subject of ongoing investigation, but is expected to be
in the next decade. The Melton services would join MM at Sunshine. It is assumed that the
Melton Rail Upgrade Project (MRUP) scope will include rail/rail grade separation on down side of
Sunshine to enable up and down Bendigo services and down Sunbury services to cross up and
down Melton services. It is also assumed that the extra traction power and Overhead Line
Equipment (OHLE) requirements to increase services from 16 to 24 trains per hour between
Sunshine and the tunnel portal would be included in the scope of MRUP.
Indicative scopes and costs of URPL and DRC Program are included in the economic
assessment of the full MM scheme.
The Rowville Rail Extension will ultimately add traffic to the Caulfield group of lines from
Huntingdale to the CBD. This will bring forward the need for additional capacity on this corridor.
The MM project provides additional inner city capacity for the Caulfield group, by-passing existing
bottlenecks of Flinders Street Station and the Underground Rail Loop and provides the
opportunity to introduce 9-car operation.
The Doncaster Rail Extension will similarly require additional track capacity in to the CBD as the
existing Clifton Hill group is already close to capacity. Provision has been made for Parkville
station proposed in MM to include platforms serving a new line from Clifton Hill/Victoria Park via
the University and then through to the western side of the CBD.
A Melbourne Airport Rail Link could be provided by an extension of one of the existing lines o
Melbourne’s north-west, as a lower cost alternative to establishing a new, dedicated line. MM
increases the capacity of all of these lines, potentially supporting this approach.
39
Stage 5 of the Regional Rail Development Program, which is the next stage to be delivered. Stage 4 is Regional Rail Link and
stages 1, 2 and 3 have largely been delivered.
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Expanding the Port of Hastings will be dependent on the quality of the transport connections
through the south east and in particular the Monash Freeway. Managing congestion in the southeast to allow the efficient movement of freight will be a key element of the land side transport plan
for the port.
provides opportunities to introduce longer trains on the Dandenong rail corridor at a much lower
cost by avoiding the need for works at Flinders Street Station.
6.3.6
Flinders Street Station
The revised MM concept assumes a simpler connection between CBD South Station and the existing
Flinders Street Station, which meets MM passenger interchange, design and constructability
requirements. The updated scheme does not worsen existing conditions at Flinders Street.
There are a wide range of issues that currently affect existing Flinders Street Station and its
surrounds. Numerous studies have been undertaken to assess these issues and options for their
resolution. Discussions with stakeholders raised issues which include the need to:
Establish the primacy of the transport functions objectives for the precinct
Plan to ensure the Flinders Street Station functions as an efficient complex for the movement of
passengers and train operations
Provide for safe and efficient transfers between tram and rail stations
Maximise the attractiveness, security and accessibility of the station and its surrounds
Decide on the future operational needs of the station offices against competing possibilities
Provide for the restoration, maintenance and adaptive reuse of the existing state significant
heritage building
Provide for alterations and new built elements that are sympathetic in the context of the existing
state significant heritage building
Determine appropriate treatments for key pedestrian connections to the CBD, Southbank, and the
Sports and Entertainment Precinct
Enable safe 24-hour public access between the CBD, Northbank and Southbank recognising the
station precinct currently represents a significant barrier to connectivity
Identify other opportunities to develop the station for other reasons which don’t impinge on core
values/needs of the station or objectives of the State and City of Melbourne, including the
protection of Yarra River and Southbank from overshadowing
Establish priorities, inter-relationships and timelines for mandatory and discretionary aspects of a
central station plan.
A design competition for the redevelopment of Flinders Street itself is being led by Major Projects
Victoria and is now underway. Among other things, the study will need to address these issues. The
MM interchange design will be an input to the overall design competition.
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6.4
6.4.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Interdependent projects
Rolling stock procurement
The HCMT project is needed to achieve the MM service plan on the new metro lines (as outlined in
the network rolling stock procurement and deployment strategy in the section on operating plan and
patronage impact). A fleet of 29 HCMTs is currently envisaged to be required across the network to
allow HCMTs to exclusively operate on the Sunbury to Domain metro and achieve the required
frequencies across the network. It is being delivered in parallel with the MM project and is not
included in the scope of this project because HCMTs will be deployed across the network, not just for
Sunbury to Domain metro services.
The HCMT project will provide initial stabling for HCMT trains at Calder Park on the Sunbury corridor
(with provision for expansion to support MM), including signalling works to accommodate this. It will
also include a heavy maintenance facility for HCMTs. Sufficient traction power will be provided to
operate the required services, through upgrades to substations on the Sunbury corridor to South
Kensington and upgrades to other traction substations on the Upfield, Craigieburn and Werribee lines
to support the increased frequency of services on the Northern Group.
Details of the HCMT program are contained in DOT’s business case currently being developed.
6.5
Complementary projects and programs
This section outlines the details of complementary projects and programs which are being undertaken
in parallel with MM. They are not part of the scope of MM.
6.5.1
High Capacity Signalling (HCS)
A business case for the proof-of-concept (POC) of the HCS system is currently being prepared
independently of MM and is not included in the scope at this stage.
As discussed above, the timing of the implementation of MM and the service requirements means that
the concept signalling arrangement for the system must consider a new signalling regime. Selection
of a signalling system needs to consider the line-wide performance, signalling and control regime. A
business case for the scoping, proof of concept and type approval of a HCS system is currently being
prepared. Implementation of HCS in the tunnels and on the Sunbury surface corridor is not part of the
MM project, though will be considered in the next phase.
HCS POC is Stage 1 of a three-stage HCS program of works that will progressively transition the
existing coloured lights signalling system in the state to a modern HCS solution. This will equip the
State with a modern signalling infrastructure capable of supporting higher reliability and capacity in
the network.
The three stage HCS program comprises:
HCS Stage 1 proof-of-concept (POC) – to be carried out over a 15-month period from
FY2012/13 to FY2013/14.
HCS Stage 2 pilot line – deployment of the HCS solution on a metropolitan line over a 24-month
period in FY2014/15 to FY2015/16.
HCS Stage 3 statewide – progressive deployment of the HCS solution across the metropolitan
and regional broad gauge rail network over several years commencing in FY2017/18.
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HCS Stage 1 POC will:
establish if existing equipment/subsystems are compatible with the HCS solution
investigate suitable implementation and migration strategies
determine if HCS functions and performance will not only support existing operations but also
provide capacity and service reliability
help establish if HCS solution costs conform to normalised industry models
establish if the HCS solution will meet safety requirements.
40
Further details of scope are included in the HCS business case . While the POC and subsequent
piloting and statewide implementation is part of the HCS project, the MM scope includes HCS in the
tunnel and Sunbury corridor, hence HCS is critically interdependent and reliant on timely development
of HCS. Funding for the POC has been included in the MM pre-construction funding (the subject of
this business case), as outlined in Section 16 in the event that the HCS POC business case does not
proceed.
An Interface Control Working Group has been set up within DOT to coordinate interdependencies
between HCMT, HCS and MM to ensure critical path activities are articulated, and delivered in a
timely and an effective manner.
6.5.2
Melbourne Metro Tram Plan
MM interfaces extensively with Melbourne’s tram network – nine of the 28 routes in Melbourne
operate on the St Kilda Road/Swanston Street corridor which runs above the proposed MM
alignment.
41
The Melbourne Metro Tram Plan has been developed to identify a set of complementary
infrastructure, operational changes and other strategies to integrate Melbourne’s tram network with
MM.
Four of the five metro station sites are directly serviced by existing tram routes, with the fifth located
within 400 metres. The development of MM provides opportunities to integrate tram and metro
services, while also assisting metro with servicing the transport task.
Integrating metro and tram services widens journey opportunities by providing convenient access to
destinations located off the metro corridor, contributes to relieving tram crowding and congestion, and
provides opportunities to revise and simplify the tram network route structure.
Patronage impacts of MM on the tram network were discussed earlier in this report.
Given the above, provided that sufficient capacity is retained in Swanston Street to meet demand,
relocation of services into William Street and Clarendon Street is recommended. A tram link between
Domain Station and South Melbourne (Clarendon Street) would overcome local access barriers and
also contribute to reducing tram numbers in Swanston Street. To support the proposed MM project,
five tram route changes have been identified (Figure 6-1). These changes comprise:
40
41
additional capacity between Parkville, William Street and St Kilda Junction by providing one new
route
Next Generation Signalling Proof of Concept business case, Department of Transport
AECOM, October 2010
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a new link between Domain Station, South Melbourne and Southern Cross by diverting one
existing route from Swanston Street
elimination of the requirement to terminate trams at the Domain tram interchange by linking the
William Street tram (Route 55) to Domain Road (Route 8) trams and rearranging two routes on
Swanston Street to maintain cross-city connectivity.
As part of the MM project, the existing tram interchange north of Domain Road is being relocated
south of Domain Road above the new Domain metro station. To access this new interchange, the
new Route 55-Route eight tram services will need to travel via Toorak Road instead of Domain Road.
This requires new tram tracks and a new platform stop to be laid on Toorak Road between St Kilda
Road and Park Street (refer Section 5).
The introduction of MM is estimated to save 60 trams (essentially along the St Kilda Road – Swanston
Street corridor), with an estimated capital value of $330 million. The tram saving is best understood
by potentially reducing the rate of new tram procurement to manage growth, however would need to
be considered in the context of replacing an ageing fleet.
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Figure 6-1: Proposed Tram Network post implementation of MM
6.5.3
DDA access to public transport
Works to be undertaken on the surface stations prior to the opening of MM are dependent on the
results of the network wide prioritisation process. This means there may be a marked difference
between the access provided in the underground and surface stations. Given that there is a
requirement on the State that all railway stations will be compliant with the Disability Standards for
Accessible Public Transport (DSAPT) by 2022, (with 90% compliance by 2017) it should be expected
that these upgrades would be complete by or within a few years of MM operations commencing.
6.5.4
Separating road and rail lines program (level crossing elimination)
In 2008, DOT developed a model to assess indicative benefits of grade separating all level crossings
in Victoria. The Level Crossing Prioritisation Model considered private vehicle travel time impacts,
tram and bus travel times and overall safety benefits that would be incurred at each location.
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The delivery of MM will alter the boom down time at a number of crossings on the Craigieburn,
Sunbury, Werribee and Upfield corridors. These impacts have been considered along with all other
likely changes at level crossings across Victoria as a result of service improvements. The overall
assessment enabled all crossings to be ranked in order of benefit delivered – informing which
crossings should be prioritised for grade separation.
The analysis undertaken demonstrates that whilst the MM project does affect the boom down times, it
does not materially alter the order in which level crossing will be prioritised as part of the Separating
Road and Rail Lines program. The Anderson Road level crossings on both the Sunbury and Melton
lines will be grade separated by the RRL project.
6.5.5
Metro station upgrades
With the additional patronage driven by the increase in services across the Northern Group, additional
pressure will be put on infrastructure at existing stations, including modal interchanges and park ‘n’
ride facilities. Whether or not works are undertaken on the surface stations prior to the opening of
MM will be dependent on the results of the network wide prioritisation process. This means it is
possible that no surface station will be upgraded prior to Day 1 and/or that there will be a marked
difference between the underground and surface stations.
The RRL project will upgrade Footscray Station and relocate West Footscray Station and is
considering relocating Tottenham Station.
6.6
Detailed project interfaces
Table 6-1 outlines the interfaces with other projects made during the concept development phase of
MM which significantly support the delivery of MM in other surface and station sections. Ongoing
planning work with the Accredited Rail Operator (MTM) will allow further provisioning to be made on
the surface works.
Table 6-1: Project interfaces
Project/activity
interface
Initiative
Benefit
RMIT University
Ensure foundation pile design outside
tunnel no-go zone, and/or can
accommodate MM
Preserve preferred alignment, minimise
additional construction costs
Victorian Comprehensive
Cancer Centre
accommodate MM
Peter Doherty
accommodate MM
Sunbury Electrification
Project
Sunbury Station – re-location of
substation design to facilitate extension
of platforms
To accommodate future nine-car train
operations
Re-location of proposed Holden Street
tie-station to north of Sunbury tracks
To provide for shunt roads to future
stabling/maintenance facility
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Project/activity
interface
Main Road Grade
Separation and Station
rebuilding at St Albans
Regional Rail Link
Footscray CAD
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Initiative
Benefit
Provide five substations at 2MW
capacity between Watergardens and
Sunbury
Provides minimum capacity for MM
Day 1 operations along this section
Station design such that platforms can
be extended to 230 metres without a
change in grade
To accommodate nine-car length trains
Tottenham substation needs to be
relocated for new RRL tracks
Opportunity to upgrade to 3MW
capacity for MM Day 1 operation
Land to be reserved for future
Sunshine substation
Sunshine Substation required for Day 1
MM operations
RRL tracks to be slewed at Middle
Footscray station; Land acquisition on
south-west corner of Victoria Street
Accommodate 17 metre platform
extension down end to allow for
230 metre platform; opportunity with
RRL property acquisition to provide
DDA compliant access solution
Separate Melton, Ballarat and Bendigo
diesels from metro services with at
grade track re-design
Improve reliability of service from
Sunbury
Land has been preserved to north of
McNab Lane to provide for future
substation development
Tie station at Footscray will need to be
upgraded to 3MW substation on Day 1
MM and two x 3MW for HCMT running
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PART C – BENEFITS & IMPACTS
PART C – BENEFITS AND IMPACTS
7 Benefits, operating plan, patronage & land
use impact
7.1
Overview
The demand for rail is itself dependent on the level of service provided and therefore the demand
forecasting and service development has been conducted in an integrated and iterative process. This
section summarises the end result of this process and key findings relevant to this business case.
MM will provide the infrastructure to re-configure the Northern and Caulfield Groups into three fully
independent metro lines (sectorise) operating as follows:
Northern Loop Metro: Craigieburn and Upfield services via the Northern City Loop tunnel
Sunshine-Dandenong Metro: Sunbury services via the MM Tunnel to Pakenham and Cranbourne
Frankston Loop Metro: Frankston services to the Caulfield City Loop tunnel
Re-configured Cross-City Metro: Werribee and Williamstown services to Flinders Street via the
Cross-City line and through to Sandringham.
The operational and service plan identified for each of the four metro groups enabled by the
implementation of MM will be described in this section with an assessment of the associated capacity
and reliability benefits. The section also outlines the relationship with the Dandenong Rail Capacity
Program, which is part of the ultimate MM project.
The new rail services enabled by MM have been assessed to determine the impact on overall system
patronage. This assessment has been undertaken within a multi-modal transport model which
enables assessment of the redistribution of demand across modes and within modes. Importantly, it
was found that the increase in rail system capacity encourages a shift in demand from the road and
tram systems providing significant relief to the users of these modes.
7.2
7.2.1
Outputs, benefits and key performance indicators
Outputs
The key output for MM is the provision of extra services in the peak period on the Northern and
Caulfield Groups – with a target of an extra 17 services in the peak hour on day one. The actual
services it will be possible to operate after completion of MM are shown in Table 7-1 below.
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Table 7-1: Metropolitan train service delivery AM peak hour
Line
Current
Post RRL
Post MM
Sunbury - Sydenham
9
13
16 (9-car)
11
14
18
Craigieburn
9
12
16
Upfield
3
3
6
Total (Northern Group)
32
42
56
Pakenham / Cranbourne
15
16
16 (9-car)
Frankston
14
14
16
Sandringham
8
8
9
Total (Caulfield Group)
37
38
41
The key outputs after completion of MM (and the preceding four stages of the seven-stage
metropolitan rail plan can be summarised as:
provision of 97 services on Day 1 (an additional 17) across the Northern and Caulfield Groups
(excluding all V/Line diesel services)
major expansion of the metropolitan rail line capacity in the inner area to enable extra services to
be operated – capacity of 16 trains per hour through the MM tunnel on Day 1 with the ability to run
at least 24 trains per hour in the future
increases in the train fleet to provide these services (as part of the overall rolling stock
procurement program outlined in separate business cases)
increases in train service reliability on both the Caulfield and Northern Rail Groups
to allow in the design of any interventions for the Rowville and Doncaster Rail Links, Melbourne
Airport Rail Link (MARL) and Upgrading Regional Lines (Melton-Ballarat and Bendigo lines).
MARL and Melton trains would be able to operate in the new tunnel if deemed appropriate and be
incorporated into the Melbourne Metro scheme
to create a new type of rail service – a metro style service.
7.2.2
Benefits and key performance indicators
Four benefits of the project have been identified in the Investment Logic Map (Figure 3-1):
1. Melbourne’s liveability is improved and shared
2. Stronger Victorian economy
3. Increased access to jobs and services
4. Move to a lower emissions society
The key performance indicators (KPI) to measure the achievement of each these benefits are shown
in Table 7-3 below.
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The project will deliver four key benefits, as indicated in the Investment Logic Map in section 3.5.
These benefits will occur as a result of addressing the problems described in sections 2 and 3. Table
7-2 describes each of the benefits and how they link to and address the problems identified.
Table 7-2: Explanation of benefits
Benefit
Description
Melbourne’s liveability
is improved and shared
By increasing rail system capacity, the project will reduce crowding and improve ontime performance of train services. The project’s scale is such that it will also
significantly reduce road congestion. Housing choice and accessibility to jobs for
residents in Melbourne’s west will also be improved by the Arden development.
These benefits will significantly improve the liveability of Melbourne.
Stronger Victorian
economy
Reduced commuter travel times, improving road freight productivity from reduced
congestion, improving access to the key knowledge centres of Parkville and Domain
and further enhancing CBD firms’ productivity will significantly strengthen Victoria’s
economy. This project targets productivity, which is now the most influential factor in
economic growth in Australia.
Increased access to
jobs and services
Access to jobs and services in Melbourne’s central area will be improved
dramatically with more train services on lines serving the north, west and south-east
of Melbourne.
Transition to a lower
emissions society
With higher public transport mode shares and reduced road congestion,
greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced significantly.
Table 7-3: MM target key performance indicators (KPIs)
KPI
Improved on-time performance (proportion of train services within 5 minutes of scheduled
(measure)
arrival time)
Baseline
87% (Northern Group)
Source
DOT train simulation modelling for post-RRL operations / Track Record
publication
Reporting
KPI
Target
95%
Interim Target
93%
Forum
Public Transport Development Authority
Start Date
1 year from project opening
Frequency
Quarterly
End Date
5 years from project opening
Responsibility
Chief Executive Officer, Public Transport Development Authority
Reduced train crowding (number of services breaching load standard)
(measure)
Baseline
12 load breaches in AM Peak on Northern Rail Group in 2017
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Source
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
DOT patronage forecasts and operational planning / Track Record
publication
Reporting
Target
Zero load breaches in AM peak on Northern Rail Group
Interim Target
-
Forum
Start Date
1 year from project opening
Frequency
Quarterly
End Date
5 years from project opening
Responsibility
Chief Executive Officer, Public Transport Development Authority
KPI
Urban development in established areas (number of jobs, dwellings, enrolments in Arden
(measure)
precinct)
Baseline
Jobs
Dwellings
Enrolments
4,000
120
0
Source
Reporting
Victoria in Future, 2008
Target
30,000
7,000
12,000
Interim Target (2031)
6,000
5,000
11,000
Forum
ABS Surveys
Start Date
2025
2021
2021
Frequency
Annual
Annual
Annual
End Date
2041
2041
2041
Responsibility
KPI
DPCD / City of Melbourne
Decongestion (reduction in number of car trips in AM peak)
(measure)
Reporting
Baseline
1,915,000
Source
DOT MM network modeling / Victorian Integrated Travel Survey of Activity
Target
1,901,000 (14,000 reduction from base)
Interim Target
NA
Forum
TBD
Start Date
2011
Frequency
Biennial
End Date
2031
Responsibility
Michael Hopkins, Executive Director, Policy & Communications (PAC), DOT
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KPI
Improved access to key economic centres (minutes saved by public transport accessing
(measure)
Parkville and St Kilda Road)
Baseline
Not applicable
Source
DOT MM network modeling
Target
25 minutes saving to Domain
15 minutes saving to Parkville
Reporting
KPI
Interim Target
as above
Forum
TBD
Start Date
Upon opening
Frequency
NA
End Date
NA
Responsibility
NA
Employment productivity (Gross Value Added in a year)
(measure)
Baseline
To be determined as part of implementation business case
Source
DOT MM Strategic Transport Network Modelling and Wider Economic Benefit
calculations
Reporting
Target
+$200m by 2031
Interim Target
TBD
Forum
TBD
Start Date
2011
Frequency
Annual
End Date
Ongoing
Responsibility
Victorian Department of Treasury & Finance / DOT / DPCD
KPI
Access to jobs (% increase in number of jobs within 60 minutes travel time in peak times by
(measure)
public transport)
Reporting
Baseline
To be determined as part of implementation business case
Source
DOT Strategic Transport Network Modelling
Target
+5% by 2031
Interim Target
-
Forum
To Be Determined
Page 176 of 321
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Business Case
Start Date
NA
Frequency
NA
End Date
NA
Responsibility
Michael Hopkins, Executive Director, PAC, DOT
KPI
Access to capital city functions (% increase in Melbourne’s population within 60 minutes travel
(measure)
time of CBD)
Reporting
Baseline
To be established as part of implementation business case
Source
DOT strategic transport network modelling
Target
+30% by 2031
Interim Target
-
Forum
To be determined
Start Date
NA
Frequency
NA
End Date
NA
Responsibility
KPI
Greenhouse gas emissions (Greenhouse gas emissions savings on Melbourne’s transport
(measure)
system)
Reporting
KPI
Baseline
To be calculated as part of implementation business case
Source
DOT strategic transport network modelling
Target
8 MtCO2 net cumulative savings 25 years after opening (2046)
Interim Target
To be calculated as part of implementation business case
Forum
NA
Start Date
NA
Frequency
NA
End Date
NA
Responsibility
Increased use of public transport (Daily metropolitan public transport mode share)
(measure)
Baseline
14% in 2021
Source
VISTA / DOT strategic transport network modelling / ABS Journey to Work
data
Page 177 of 321
Reporting
7.2.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Target
16% by 2031
Interim Target
15% by 2026
Forum
To be determined
Start Date
2011
Frequency
Biennial
End Date
2031
Responsibility
Evidence of benefits delivery
The evidence that the benefits will be delivered by the project are summarised by the Key
Performance Measures for each of the benefits defined in the Benefit Map overleaf. The
comprehensive economic, social and environmental impact analysis, together with the operational,
patronage and land use impact analyses undertaken for the draft pre-construction business case
provides further detail on the KPIs and other impacts if required.
Further details on the baselines and targets for each KPI and the people responsible for their
reporting and achievement are shown above.
Page 178 of 321
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Benefit Management Plan
Benefit Map
Investor: Hector McKenzie
Facilitator:
Initial Workshop:
Version no: Version 0.3
Last modified by: Chris Tehan
Melbourne Metro
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
STRATEGIC
INTERVENTIONS
Improve the
performance of
Melbourne’s
existing rail system
25%
Increase the
capacity of
Melbourne’s rail
system
50%
INVESTMENT
KPI
BENEFIT
Melbourne’s
liveability is
improved and
shared
40%
Stronger Victorian
economy
40%
MEASURE
TARGET
Improved on time
performance
Proportion of train
services within 5
minutes of scheduled
arrival time
95% on opening on
upgraded lines
Reduced
train crowding
Number of services
breaching load
standard
Zero on upgraded lines
Urban development in
established areas
Number of jobs /
residents / enrolments
in Arden precinct
6,000 jobs
15,000 residents
11,000 enrolments
by 2031
30%
40%
30%
Decongestion
Reduction in number of
car trips in AM peak
14,000 car trips
Improved access to key
economic centres
Minutes saved on PT
accessing Parkville and
St Kilda Road
25 minutes to Domain
15 minutes to Parkville
40%
10%
50%
Employment
productivity
Facilitate the
effective use of land
within Melbourne for
housing and
employment
25%
Increased access
to jobs and
services
10%
Transition to a
lower emissions
society
10%
Access to jobs
60%
40%
Gross Value Added
$200m increase in GVA
in 2031
% increase in number of
jobs within 60 minutes
travel time in peak times by
public transport
+5% by 2031
metropolitan-wide
Access to capital city
functions
% increase in
population within 60
minutes of travel time of
CBD
+30% by 2031
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Greenhouse gas
emissions savings on
Melbourne’s transport
system
3 MtCO2e net
cumulative savings by
25 years after opening
80%
20%
Increased use of public
transport
Daily metropolitan
public transport mode
share
Template version: 4.0
Page 179 of 321
16% by 2031
7.2.4
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Reporting the delivery of benefits
Crowding and on-time performance of the train system is reported each quarter and monitored
regularly by the Department of Transport in publications such as Track Record.
DPCD together with the City of Melbourne will monitor developments in the Arden precinct.
VicRoads collects traffic volume information on major arterial roads and monitors travel speeds on the
network.
Gross State Product in general is monitored by State and Federal Treasuries. It will need to become
the responsibility of DOT and DPCD to correlate this with effective job density.
DOT monitors public transport usage and mode share closely and so can report on the impacts on
specific lines to isolate the impact of this project. Improved access to Parkville - St Kilda Road through
public transport travel time savings is a network-wide effect which will be manifested in tram and train
timetables.
The Federal Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency measures and reports on
emissions from the transport sector – these can be correlated with public transport usage patterns to
identify greenhouse gas emissions savings.
The precise reporting forums for these benefits will be determined.
7.2.5
Importance of the benefits to Government
The Melbourne Metro project is the critical enabler of a metro rail system in Melbourne, which is
needed to deal with population growth, decreasing access to jobs and services, a poorly performing
and congested transport system and declining productivity growth. Melbourne Metro:
Addresses all of the Infrastructure Australia (IA) objectives, particularly the ‘develop our cities’ and
‘increase Australia’s productivity’ objectives, enabling a new urbanism through a quality, cityshaping public transport system that provides a step-change in accessibility to a wider labour pool
and better connects Melbourne’s knowledge economy. The project’s agglomeration and
productivity benefits are therefore very significant. Commonwealth Treasury’s 2010
Intergenerational Report confirms that productivity has become the fundamental driver of
economic growth.
Dramatically increases transport capacity to central Melbourne, delivering substantial transport
user benefits and significantly reducing congestion and externalities.
Facilitates large-scale inner urban renewal through a major development precinct in North
Melbourne through a new station at Arden and enabling infrastructure.
Delivers jobs closer to where people live, creating a pipeline of supply of dwellings in targeted
urban renewal sites to contribute to a sustainable urban form, and enhance accessibility to a
range of urban activities through sustainable means. These outcomes will support a refined
metropolitan structure which will ensure Melbourne retains its liveability and productivity.
Delivers positive whole-of-life environmental outcomes, including reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, air pollution, noise and water pollution and land consumption as a result of reductions
in private vehicle travel and a more compact urban form.
delivers significant social benefits including improvements to the stock of human capital through
improved accessibility to jobs, education opportunities and inner Melbourne. This leads to a more
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Business Case
equitable distribution of income, which in turn leads to decreased crime and improved health
outcomes.
improves accessibility to services, leading to better health outcomes and increased opportunities
for sport, uptake of hobbies, and entertainment. It also promotes improved personal wellbeing and
societal welfare, such as choice in retail offerings, through improved access to goods and
services.
The scale of the project means that it contributes strongly to Victoria’s transport and land use
objectives and is considered critically important to the State. The project delivers economic benefits of
around $15 billion (in 2010 present value terms), which comfortably exceeds its whole-of-life cost ($8–
9 billion). These benefits do not include any of the social and some of the environmental benefits
discussed above.
The project enjoys strong support from the community and the Commonwealth Government.
7.3
7.3.1
Concept of Operations
Introduction
A Concept of Operations (COO) has been developed comprising both the MM project and the full MM
scheme (ie MM, DRC Program & for the purposes of this assessment, Upgrading Regional
Passenger Lines – formerly Melton Rail Upgrade) to ensure a logical staged development of the full
scheme and confirm that operational and infrastructure solutions address both the shorter term and
long term outcomes. It should also be noted that the COO has been developed to be entirely
consistent with the Melbourne Metropolitan Rail Capacity Upgrade Program – refer section 1.2.5.
The current COO provides sufficient detail on the operational concept to meet the requirements of the
business case. Further refinements will be made and a revised COO developed as part of the next
phase of the project. The revised version will reflect outcomes of the reference design and any
constraints that may necessitate alterations to the operating plan and establish other (more specific)
operational process and management changes that will need to be undertaken to enable the revised
network to function reliably and efficiently.
The following sections provide a summary of the COO for both MM Day 1 and the ultimate MM
scheme.
Page 181 of 321
7.3.2
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
MM Day 1 service plan
The network base case for MM is shown in Figure 7-1.
Figure 7-1: MM Base Case Network (post RRL and Sunbury electrification)
6
6
3
13
14
8
14
16
MM will provide the infrastructure to re-configure the Northern Group into three fully independent
metro lines operating as follows:
Northern Loop Metro: Craigieburn and Upfield services via the Northern City Loop tunnel
Sunshine-Domain Metro: Sunbury services via the MM Tunnel to Domain
Re-configured Cross-City Metro: Werribee and Williamstown services to Flinders Street via the
Cross-City line and through to Frankston.
These line groups are shown schematically in Figure 7-2. The reconfigured network and new
infrastructure will provide the following operational outputs:
segregates the existing Northern Group of lines into three stand-alone metros each operating
more frequent and reliable services with ‘Turn-up and Go’ style timetables operating homogenous
service patterns
delivers a total of 14 additional peak hour services across the existing Northern Group lines and 3
additional peak hour services across the Caulfield Group of lines
allows the opportunity to add a further eight services upon electrification to Melton
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Business Case
allows operation of up to nine-car trains from Sunbury (and Melton upon electrification) delivering
a further 50% increase in capacity
relieves crowding and congestion at existing stations by diverting a number of passenger trips
through new CBD stations
relieves tram congestion on Swanston Street-St Kilda Road.
Figure 7-2: MM and revised Northern and Caulfield Group Configuration
Sunshine-Dandenong Metro Operating Plan
The Sunshine-Dandenong Metro would operate all trains from the Sydenham/Sunbury line into the
new tunnel to Pakenham and Cranbourne via Dandenong. The removal of the Sunbury and
Dandenong trains from their respective city loop tunnels is a necessary requirement to fully establish
the remaining three metro line groups.
Upon opening it is anticipated that Melton services would still be operating with diesel hauled trains
via RRL tracks. As a result, a total of sixteen 9-car services an hour would operate on Sunbury line
via the Melbourne Metro tunnel on day one. The number of services operating on Dandenong rail
corridor will be determined as part of the DRC Program – any services in excess of 16 trains per hour
(the limit on Sunbury corridor without further works) could operate direct to Flinders Street.
The Sunshine-Dandenong Metro would be configured to enable the following enhancements in future
projects:
capacity for up to 12 services from Melton (upon completion of Upgrading Regional Passenger
Lines project, formerly Melton Rail Upgrade project)
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Business Case
capacity to accommodate trains of up to 220 metres (notionally 9-car) in length.
The Sunshine-Dandenong Metro trains would be maintained at the proposed Calder Park stabling
and maintenance facility and be stabled at Calder Park and existing stabling locations on the line as
shown in Figure 7-3.
Bendigo regional trains will continue to share tracks with metropolitan trains on the
Sydenham/Sunbury corridor as far as Sunshine with MM. However these regional services will
operate at relatively low frequencies and sufficient capacity will be available for MM services to
operate largely independently.
Figure 7-3: Sunshine-Dandenong Metro - MM Day 1 Operating Plan
8
16
CBD
North
CBD
South
16
Maintenance Facility
Stabling Facility
6
Services in peak hour
4
8
Cross-City Metro Operating Plan
The Cross-City Metro would incorporate the Werribee/Williamstown and Sandringham corridors
connected via the ‘through suburban’ lines from North Melbourne to Flinders Street and the ‘special
lines’ from Flinders Street to Richmond.
A Cross-City Rail Group was established in May 2011 as part of the implementation of a new
‘greenfields’ timetable. However, in advance of MM, the Cross-City Group will need to accommodate
additional trains from other lines. This sharing will remove capacity from the Werribee/Williamstown
service and compromise the ability to operate a simple Metro service. In advance of MM the CrossCity Rail Group will need to accommodate the following services:
between 2011 and the implementation of RRL: Geelong services will operate as part of the CrossCity Rail Group between Werribee and Southern Cross
between the implementation of RRL and the implementation of MM: Up to seven Craigieburn
services would operate on the Cross-City Rail Group between North Melbourne and Flinders
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Business Case
Street due to capacity constraints in the Northern Loop. These services would operate via the
Broadmeadows Suburban fly-over and merge, at grade, with services from Werribee.
Upon implementation of MM, it is proposed that services from Werribee/Williamstown would
exclusively operate from the west on the cross-city tracks. This will simplify operations, eliminate an
at-grade conflict at North Melbourne, result in full sectorisation and enable an additional five services
to operate from the Werribee corridor in the peak hour. The MM project facilitates capacity for an
additional two services per hour on the Frankston line and an additional service on the Sandringham
line.
Cross-City Metro trains will be maintained at Newport and stabled at various locations as shown in
Figure 7-4.
Figure 7-4: Cross-City Metro – MM Day 1 infrastructure requirements
New stabling at North
Melbourne
New cross-overs
at South Yarra
Upgraded signaling between
Werribee and Newport
Upgraded platform and
facilities at Brighton Beach
to enable turn-backs
The implementation of the MM project would enable a total of 18 services per hour to operate on the
trunk section between Newport and Flinders Street (an additional five services from post RRL). Only
Werribee/Williamstown services would run direct via Cross-City group (Craigieburn direct services can
be removed). Most services continue to run through to Sandringham or South Yarra, while Frankston
services run via loop with only limited interaction with Cross-City group for rolling stock positioning.
All services would stop at all stations inbound from Newport. This service pattern is shown in
Figure 7-5.
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Business Case
Figure 7-5: Cross-City Metro – MM Day 1 Operating Plan
Stabling Facility
6
Frankston Loop Metro
Cross-City Metro
18
12
3
3
9
16
10
Northern Loop Metro Operating Plan
The Northern Loop Metro would include the Craigieburn and Upfield corridors as well as the Northern
Loop and viaduct. The Northern City Loop will be used exclusively by trains from Craigieburn and
Upfield corridors. A grade-separated merge of Craigieburn and Upfield services at North Melbourne
would enable use of both city loop tunnel portals. A dedicated fleet of 33 Comeng trains would
operate this service.
All services would operate via the loop and originate from Craigieburn, Broadmeadows, Essendon
and Upfield. V/Line services from Seymour would also need to be accommodated along the
Craigieburn corridor but would run direct into Southern Cross only.
Northern Loop metro trains would be maintained at Craigieburn and stabled at various locations on
both suburban corridors as shown in Figure 7-6.
A total of 22 services would operate through the Northern Loop in the peak hour at Day 1. At present
it is planned that one in four of these would operate from Upfield, one in four from Essendon and one
in two from Craigieburn or Broadmeadows. This service pattern is shown in Figure 7-7.
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Business Case
Figure 7-6: Northern Loop Metro – MM Day 1 infrastructure requirements
Additonal platform at Upfield
Upgraded signaling and power systems:
Broadmeadows to Craigieburn
Upgraded platform and new
point-work at Essendon to
enable centre-road turn-backs
Figure 7-7: Northern Loop Metro - MM Day 1 Operating Plan
Stabling Facility
11
6
6
Essendon
16
22
Page 187 of 321
7.3.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Ultimate Melbourne Metro service plan
The Dandenong Rail Capacity program, upgrades on the Melton line (as part of Upgrading Regional
Passenger lines project) and other enabling works on the Caulfield Group will facilitate the delivery of
the ultimate MM service plan.
The delivery of these projects will create an end-to-end metro service from Sunbury and Melton to
Cranbourne and Pakenham. In turn this will enable a major reconfiguration of the other lines to the
south-east as follows:
Cranbourne and Pakenham services will be diverted into the new tunnel and run through to
Sunbury and Melton
The Cross-City Metro will be reconfigured to operate services from Werribee and Williamstown to
Sandringham via Southern Cross and Flinders Street.
No change is envisaged on the Northern Loop Metro with introduction of DRC program, Melton or
other works. These line groups are shown schematically in Figure 7-9.
Ultimate infrastructure requirements, including High Capacity Signalling, to accommodate 24 trains
per hour through the tunnel are shown in Figure 7-8. Indicative ultimate operating arrangements are
Figure 7-8: Ultimate MM infrastructure requirements
HCS Sunshine to
South Ken
Melton
CBD
North
Quad track to Deer Park,
duplication and
electrification to Melton
CBD
South
HCS South Yarra
to Dandenong
New stabling at Rockbank
New stabling at
Pakenham East
Duplication to
Cranbourne
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Business Case
Figure 7-9: Ultimate MM scheme configuration and indicative operating plan
16
6
24
18
9
16
7.3.4
24
Operational Outcomes
The separation of the Northern and Caulfield Groups into independent operating units as a result of
MM creates capacity for the following additional peak hour services from day one of tunnel opening:
five Werribee line services
four Craigieburn line services
three Sunbury line services
two Upfield line services
one additional Sandringham line service
two additional Frankston line services.
The full scheme (ie DRC Program, Melton line works and other supporting corridor upgrades) will
deliver additional capacity on the Dandenong and Sunshine corridors
eight Melton line electrified services (removal of three diesel-hauled services)
six Dandenong line services.
Peak hour services frequencies for the current timetable, the base case and the MM project and the
full scheme are shown in Table 7-4.
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Business Case
Craigieburn
Upfield
Melton
Sunshine
Sandringham
Frankston
Cranbourne/Pakenham
TOTAL
Change from Previous
Stage
Table 7-4: Peak hour capacity on Northern and Caulfield Group Lines
9
3
2*
9
11
8
14
15
71
-
12
3
3*
13
14
8
16
16
85
+14
MM Day 1
16
6
3*
16**
18
9
18
16**
102
+17
Ultimate MM (DRC Program &
Melton Electrification)
16
6
8
16**
18
9
18
24**
115
+13
Line>
Scenario
2011 Timetable: Current service
levels
Base Case (including RRL)
42
* diesel services (Gippsland, Ballarat and Bendigo V/Line services not shown or included in totals)
** 9-car services
7.3.5
Service improvements, rolling stock and distance operated
This business case makes provision to operate all the additional peak hour services from day 1 of
opening. Additionally, operating costs have been included for day of opening to improve off-peak
services on the Sunshine-Dandenong Metro to ensure trains operate at least every 7.5 minutes
through the tunnel between 7 am and 10 pm on weekdays and between 10 am and 10 pm on
weekends. This would provide a similar level of service to that expected to be operating through the
other inner core routes by the time of implementation of MM.
Trains on the Sunshine-Dandenong Metro would be lengthened by adding up to three additional
carriages per train in the fleet to cater for anticipated demand growth (leading to additional carriage
requirements and the extension of suburban platforms and stabling roads).
In addition to capital and operating costs included from day of opening the business case has also
made provision for a gradual increase in shoulder peak services on all corridors up to the capacity of
the infrastructure, leading to increased kilometres operated and additional rolling stock requirements.
These figures are included in the economic analysis.
7.3.6
Reliability
The implementation of the MM project will result in significant improvements to the performance
reliability of the affected metropolitan lines. Reliability has been calculated using the RailSys model
which is calibrated to the current performance of the network.
Survey data collected for the calibration of the current timetable demonstrates that significant delays
are incurred at various locations for a variety of reasons. When estimating future performance some
42
Service capacity potential following implementation of committed works up to and including RRL and
deployment of new rolling stock
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Business Case
assumptions have to be made about changes to the current delay profiles to reflect the changed
operating paradigm. In particular, the following assumptions have been made regarding changes to
likelihood and impact of delays:
improved reliability between Kensington and Flagstaff on the Northern Loop Metro as a result of
eliminated interaction with Sunbury line services in the North Melbourne area
improved reliability inbound from Footscray and inbound from South Yarra on the SunshineDandenong Metro as a result of eliminated interaction with Craigieburn, Upfield and Seymour
services in the North Melbourne area
improved reliability from South Kensington to Southern Cross on the Cross-City Metro as a result
of eliminated interaction with Craigieburn direct services in the North Melbourne area
reduced delays from extended dwell times as a result of reduced over-crowding and more even
train presentation
increased scheduled dwell times at inner city stations on the Sunshine-Dandenong Metro
compared to existing stations to allow for higher numbers boarding and alighting.
improved reliability from South Yarra to Southern Cross on the Frankston Loop Metro as a result
of eliminated interaction with Dandenong services
Table 7-5 shows the estimated peak period improvement in reliability of each of the metro lines as a
result of MM and the above assumptions. It should also be noted that these results have been
calculated on the basis of no infrastructure or rolling stock failures (ie they reflect an average day of
no infrastructure incidents). In practice, average performance over a period is likely to be slightly
lower than estimated here due to incidents of that nature.
43
Table 7-5: Estimated peak period reliability by corridor upon implementation of MM
Metro Line
Base Case
MM Day 1
Medium
High
Sunshine
Low-Medium
Medium-High
Werribee / Williamstown
Low-Medium
Medium-High
Dandenong
Low-Medium
High
Frankston
Low-Medium
High
High
High
Craigieburn - Upfield
Sandringham
7.4
Rolling stock deployment strategy
Additional rolling stock is critical to enable the additional services to operate. Planning is underway to
confirm future rolling stock requirements, appropriate deployment and procurement. Additional trains
will be required to support the provision of extra services across the network prior to and as a result of
the MM project. The introduction of HCMTs for operation on the MM will be further considered in the
43
Does not include impacts of future train crowding. Reliability performance will be affected by train crowding, which is likely to
occur between completion of RRL and opening of MM as patronage continues to grow.
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Business Case
next phase and is expected to reduce sizing of tunnels and stations. MTM strongly supports the
HCMT concept. The procurement of HCMTs would require construction of a new bespoke HCMT
maintenance and stabling facility at Calder Park and stabling at other locations across the network
according to the operational requirements.
The additional X’trapolis trains due to be delivered in the short term will support the growth in services
achievable in the peak and shoulder peak periods following the implementation of the committed
projects including RRL and the extensions to Sunbury and South Morang.
New trains will need to be deployed to cover:
shoulder peak services enabled by RRL on the Craigieburn line
retirement of Hitachi trains
service improvements across the network to meet forecast rises in demand
support enhanced maintenance requirements.
The preliminary deployment strategy (subject to ongoing review as part of the rolling stock
procurement program) is shown in Table 7-6.
Table 7-6: Indicative MM deployment strategy
Comeng
Siemens
Xtrap/
HCMT
TOTAL
(6 car
Equiv)
New
Trains
required
(6 car eq)
Northern Loop
33
-
-
33
Included in
totals below
Cross-City &
Frankston
35
36
-
71
Included in
totals below
SunshineDandenong (6 Car)
-
-
60x6
60
22
-
-
60x7
70
22*
-
-
60x9
90
42^
* Assumes 7 car trailers already procured as part of “33 New Trains” business case
^ Assumes 10 additional trains already procured as part of DRC 9-Car to Flinders St proposed project
# Assumes 7 additional trains already procured as part of DRC High Capacity Signalling proposed project
Page 192 of 321
7.5
7.5.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Patronage impacts
Network impacts
Summary AM peak period forecast results for the MM and the full scheme are presented in Table 7-7
and Table 7-8 compared the project base case. These forecasts have been developed using the
Zenith model. Table 7-7 shows an increase in total rail trips and a reduction in private vehicle trips
and bus and tram boardings resulting from each progressive stage of the project reflecting the staged
increase in capacity of the rail network and improved connectivity. The reduction of V/Line boardings
for the full scheme is due to the reclassification of Melton services as part of the Melton Line
electrification and duplication.
The relative impact on public transport boardings in the full scheme compared to the MM project case
is decreased by less boardings per trip as the additional improvements to connectivity reduce the
need for interchange. This improved network connectivity also goes towards explaining why the full
scheme has marginally more tram and bus boardings in the AM peak compared with MM.
With the implementation of MM the number of public transport trips increases by almost 8000
passengers in the AM two-hour peak. Although this appears a modest increase compared with the
whole network this actually equates to around nine train loads. Although patronage modelling is
based around the two-hour peak period (to better reflect peak spreading behaviour) rail capacity
analysis concentrates on the peak one hour. This is calculated by applying a factor of 0.6 to the two
hour peak demand. The impact of MM in the peak hour is therefore an increase in public transport
trips of 4500 which equates to five train loads.
Table 7-7: 2031 AM Peak 2 hour modelled network statistics for base and MM full scheme
Measure
Base
Full MM scheme
Difference
Total person trips
3,838,546
3,838,546
0
Total person private vehicle
trips
2,719,694
2,703,213
-16,480
-0.6%
Total car trips
1,915,533
1,901,288
-14,245
-0.7%
Total PT trips
609,838
627,571
17,733
2.9%
Total PT boardings
988,151
1,024,259
36,107
3.7%
Metropolitan rail boardings
550,121
601,230
51,109
8.5%
31,926
24,716
-7,211
-22.6%
Total rail boardings
582,048
625,946
43,898
7.5%
Tram boardings
188,040
181,390
-6,650
-3.5%
Bus boardings
218,064
216,923
-1,141
-0.5%
V/Line rail boardings
The methodology used to constrain public transport capacity in the Zenith model provides a
conservative estimate of the increase in public transport trips between the base and project case. The
transport modelling assumes demand for rail can continue above ‘crush capacity’. It is reasonable to
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Business Case
assume that service overcrowding would in fact divert a greater number of trips to the road in the
base case. In this event, the project case would provide a greater increase in public transport users
and reduced traffic congestion but with less impact on public transport crowding, which would reflect
in the respective crowding and congestion benefits.
Comparison of network statistics for MM is shown in Table 7-8. This indicates that public transport
trips are forecast to grow more rapidly than population and employment between 2021 and 2031
though the growth in mode share rates slows between 2031 and 2046. This is generally consistent
with the DOT high level forecasts derived from the elasticity model. The forecast growth in private
vehicle trips is lower than population growth.
Table 7-8: AM peak modelled network statistics 2021, 2031 and 2046 MM
2021
2031
CAGR
2021–31
2046
CAGR
2031–46
Population
5,544,590
6,240,112
1.2%
7,085,987
0.9%
Employment
2,420,143
2,681,104
1.0%
3,027,936
0.8%
Total person trips
3,457,633
3,838,546
1.1%
4,351,773
0.8%
Total person private vehicle
trips
2,496,023
2,712,931
Total car trips
1,759,667
1,909,724
0.8%
2,153,502
0.8%
Total public transport trips
513,786
617,459
1.9%
709,986
0.9%
Metropolitan rail boardings
477,651
585,718
2.1%
693,737
1.1%
26,312
31,433
1.8%
35,726
0.9%
Total rail boardings
503,963
617,151
2.0%
729,463
1.1%
Bus boardings
177,213
216,697
2.0%
242,459
0.8%
Tram boardings
149,440
180,297
1.9%
201,656
0.7%
MM Constrained AM 2 hr
V/Line rail boardings
3,060,682
0.8%
0.8%
Note that the Zenith model includes key regional centres in its network which is reflected in the statistics above, including
population, employment and trips.
The metropolitan public transport mode share for motorised journeys with MM (as apposed to trip
stages within a journey) is shown in Table 7-9. These results are compared with the daily public
transport mode share from the 2007 Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA). The
model forecasts that by 2021, public transport mode share (of motorised trips) will reach 19% in the
AM peak and 14% across the day. In 2046 the public transport mode share decreases outside of the
peaks. Public transport journeys do increase, but not relative to private vehicle. This may be due to
relatively lower road congestion outside the peaks, combined with an assumed reduction in the
growth in public transport trips.
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Table 7-9: Average weekday public transport mode share for metropolitan motorised vehicle
trips with MM
MM (zenith model)
Time Period
VISTA 2007
44
2021
2031
2046
AM peak
16.5%
18.8%
20.5%
20.9%
Off peak
7.5%
12.5%
13.6%
13.5%
PM peak
15.6%
16.8%
18.5%
18.8%
Daily
10.8%
14.3%
15.6%
15.7%
7.5.2
MM patronage
The two-hour AM peak line loads for the full scheme and base are shown in Figure 7-10 and
Figure 7-11. The graphs show an increased demand in the project case compared with the base and
sufficient capacity to meet demand (based on load standard capacities).
The highest demand is from the west, with peak line loads at Footscray, relating to this area’s
dependence on CBD based employment. With the Melton line electrification some demand shifts from
the Sunbury line, resulting in relatively even loads between the two lines.
44
This mode share is based on the percentage of total motorised journeys from origin to ultimate destination. Mode share is
usually quoted as a percentage of each motorised trip stage, which equates to a current 2007 PT mode share of 13.3%
Page 195 of 321
2046 Full Scheme Constrained
2008 Validated Base
2046 Full Scheme Load Standard
2046 Base Constrained
Sunshine
Tottenham
West Footscray
Middle Footscray
Footscray
South Kensington
West Melbourne
Parkville (Melb Uni)
Melbourne Central (RMIT)
Flinders St Underground
Domain Interchange
South Yarra Underground
Hawksburn
Toorak
Armadale
Malvern
Caulfield
Carnegie
Murrumbeena
Hughesdale
Oakleigh
Huntingdale
Clayton
Westall
Springvale
Sandown Park
Noble Park
Yarraman
Dandenong
AM Peak Line Loads In Eastbound Constrained MM Full Scheme & Base
2008 Load Standard
Page 196 of 321
Melton
Rockbank
Caroline Springs
Deer Park
Ardeer
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Sunbury
Diggers Rest
Watergardens
Keilor Plains
St Albans
Ginifer
Albion
Figure 7-10: AM peak eastbound line loads – full scheme and base
Passengers per 2 hours
Lynbrook
Merinda Park
Cranbourne
Cranbourne East
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Hallam
Narre Warren
Berwick
Beaconsfield
Officer
Cardinia
Pakenham
Dandenong
Yarraman
Noble Park
Sandown Park
Springvale
Westall
Clayton
Huntingdale
Oakleigh
Hughesdale
Murrumbeena
Carnegie
Caulfield
Malvern
Armadale
Toorak
Hawksburn
South Yarra Underground
Domain Interchange
Flinders St Underground
Melbourne Central (RMIT)
Parkville (Melb Uni)
West Melbourne
South Kensington
Footscray
Middle Footscray
West Footscray
Tottenham
Sunshine
Ardeer
Deer Park
Caroline Springs
Rockbank
Melton
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Albion
Ginifer
St Albans
Keilor Plains
Watergardens
Diggers Rest
Sunbury
Am Peak Line Loads In Westbound Constrained MM Full Scheme & Base
2008 Load Standard
2008 Base
Page 197 of 321
Pakenham
Cardinia
Officer
Beaconsfield
Berwick
Narre Warren
Hallam
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Cranbourne East
Cranbourne
Merinda Park
Lynbrook
Figure 7-11: AM peak line westbound loads – full scheme and base
7.5.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Congestion relief: public transport network
The crowding levels on the rail network are presented in Figure 7-12 and Figure 7-13 for the current
(2008) and future (2031) situation with and without the MM project. (The crowding levels are based on
volume capacity ratios (ie the volume of demand in the two-hour AM peak compared with the load
standard capacity). It should be noted that the load standard is defined for the peak one hour.
Applying this standard to the two-hour period ignores the ‘peak of peak’ and therefore understates the
actual level of crowding experienced by the users). However, as noted above, patronage modelling
also accounts for the two-hour peak period to better reflect peak spreading behaviour.
The 2008 base case shows that all rail lines are approaching or at capacity. The 2031 base case
shows all rail lines over capacity. The MM project reduces crowding (but doesn’t eliminate it)
particularly on the Sunbury line and on the rest of the Northern Group. However load standards will
continue to be exceeded in some cases, particularly on the Werribee and Craigieburn lines.
Figure 7-14 and Figure 7-15 similarly show the crowding levels on the tram network for the 2008 and
2031 base case as well as the 2031 MM project case. The most significant change is reduced
crowding at the approaches to the CBD on Swanston Street and St Kilda Road (the road section
through the CBD is obscured by other tram routes). As was shown in Table 3-1 there is a reduction in
tram boardings with the MM project.
Figure 7-12: AM peak base rail crowding levels
2008
2031
The City Loop is not shown because the model network ‘over-represents’ the capacity of the loop for the purposes of analysis
Page 198 of 321
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Business Case
Figure 7-13: 2031 AM 2 hour peak rail crowding levels with Full MM Scheme
The City Loop is not
shown because the
model network ‘overrepresents’ the capacity
of the loop for the
purposes of analysis
Figure 7-14: AM peak base tram crowding levels
2008
2031
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Business Case
Figure 7-15: AM 2 hour peak tram crowding levels with Full MM Scheme
The MM project is expected to cause significant changes in forecast demand for inner city tram
services:
a fall in tram demand on St Kilda Road between Flinders Street and Domain Station with a metro
service in place. It is estimated that the fall in demand is about 7200 passengers during the
morning peak (Figure 7-16)
an increase in demand for access to William Street tram services from those alighting at Parkville
and Domain Stations (Figure 7-17)
increased demand for travel between Domain Station and South Melbourne which will be difficult
as a pedestrian due to local access barriers (Figure 7-18).
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Figure 7-16: Forecast tram loading, AM peak southbound, Swanston Street/St Kilda Road
Figure 7-17: Destinations and last egress modes of alighting trips at Parkville, AM peak
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Figure 7-18: Destinations and last egress modes of alighting trips at Domain, 2031 AM peak
The complementary MM tram strategy devised to refine the tram network as a result of these impacts
is discussed in Section 6.
7.5.4
Congestion relief: road network
The shift in demand to rail from road results in reduced traffic congestion. Figure 7-19 illustrates the
distribution of congestion relief with the MM project, which reduces car trips across the metropolitan
area by almost 6000 in the 2031 AM peak. The most significant impact is reduced volumes on the
West Gate Freeway, as well as Francis Street, Footscray Road and the Calder Freeway.
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Business Case
Figure 7-19: Full MM scheme impact on traffic volumes (2031, AM 2 hr)
The most significant levels of relief occur on the key east-west routes, which is illustrated by the
Maribyrnong/Yarra River screen line. This line bisects the routes into the CBD from the west and
provides a convenient assessment of traffic network impacts. Table 7-10 compares the traffic volumes
crossing the Maribyrnong River in the base and project cases. The results demonstrate a reduction in
overall east and westbound traffic with both project cases. There is a reduction of almost 5000 for the
full MM scheme - a typical freeway lane carries approximately 2000 vehicle/lane/hour.
Table 7-10: AM peak traffic volumes on Maribyrnong-Yarra River screen line
Traffic Volume
(two hours)
Base
Full scheme
Traffic reduction
compared to Base
Eastbound
75,000
69,800
- 5,200
Westbound
50,600
49,800
- 800
The transport modelling assumes demand for rail can continue above ‘crush capacity’ and the major
effect of the project is to reduce this level of crowding to more acceptable levels. It is reasonable to
assume the effect of service overcrowding would in fact divert a greater number of trips to the road
network under the base case. In this event, the project case would provide a greater reduction in
traffic volumes compared to the base, but a lesser impact on reduced crowding levels.
7.5.5
Patronage forecasts at inner stations
Figure 7-20 and
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Business Case
Figure 7-21 show the patronage levels (alightings in AM peak period) for existing City Loop and MM
stations between the base and the project cases, and between different years for MM. The full MM
scheme provides significant relief to existing inner city stations, particularly Flinders Street Station,
whilst there is growth predicted at all MM stations.
Figure 7-20: 2031 AM peak inner core station alightings – Base vs Full MM Scheme
100,000
Base
Full Scheme
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Fl
ag
sta
So
ff
ut
he
rn
Cr
os
s
Fl
ind
er
sS
tre
et
Ce
nt
ra
l
en
t
M
elb
ou
rn
e
Pa
rlia
m
en
Ar
d
Pa
rk
vil
le
CB
D
No
rth
So
ut
h
CB
D
Do
m
ain
-
Figure 7-21: 2021, 2031 and 2046 AM peak inner core station alightings with Full MM Scheme
80,000
2021
2031
2046
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Pa
rli
M
am
el
bo
en
ur
t
ne
C
en
tra
l
Fl
ag
st
So
af
ut
f
he
rn
C
ro
Fl
ss
in
de
rs
St
re
et
Ar
de
n
0
D
om
ai
n
C
BD
So
ut
h
C
BD
N
or
th
Pa
rk
vi
lle
70,000
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Figure 7-22 shows the inner station daily egress modes for MM in 2031. It indicates a high percentage
of passengers egressing the inner stations by walking, as well as the importance of the tram network.
The graphs highlight the interaction between the existing rail and MM at the interchange stations of
Footscray, CBD South/Flinders Street and CBD North/Melbourne Central. Arden is principally
accessed by walking but this may change as the public transport network is developed in this area.
Figure 7-22: Daily 2031 inner station egress modes with Full MM Scheme
70,000
60,000
50,000
ToBus
ToTram
ToMetro
ToRegionalTrain
ToTrain
CarOut
WalkOut
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
St
re
et
Fl
in
de
rs
C
ro
ss
So
ut
he
rn
Fl
ag
st
af
f
Pa
rli
am
en
M
el
t
bo
ur
ne
C
en
tra
l
Ar
de
n
Pa
rk
vi
lle
No
rth
CB
D
So
ut
h
CB
D
D
om
ai
n
0
Table 7-11 and Table 7-12 provide a summary of daily and AM peak statistics on inner station
boardings and alightings for the Full MM Scheme in 2031 and 2046. The patronage at future MM
stations can be compared against estimated current weekday exits at City Loop stations, which are:
Flinders Street 79,000; Parliament 36,200; and Flagstaff 18,500. In 2031, Parkville is estimated to
approach today’s Parliament station exits. Current station exit estimates do not include interchanging
within the station, unlike the future estimates in Table 7-11 and Table 7-12. This is not an issue when
comparing MM stations against current statistics, as these stations effectively only have one line
running through them. City Loop stations such as Flinders Street however, have high levels of
interchanging within the station, and therefore it is not possible to directly compare the current exit
estimates with the City Loop station statistics in Table 7-11 and Table 7-12.
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Table 7-11: Inner station boarding and alightings Full MM Scheme, 2031 (constrained)
TWO HOUR AM PEAK
DAILY
STOP NAME
Boarding
Alighting
Total
Boarding
Alighting
Total
3,300
15,100
18,400
32,800
36,700
69,500
CBD South
10,300
38,500
48,800
89,200
95,000
184,200
CBD North
7,800
20,200
28,000
61,000
53,100
114,100
Parkville
3,000
14,300
17,300
33,800
37,900
71,600
900
5,300
6,200
13,600
14,600
28,200
9,500
35,500
45,000
87,100
107,600
194,700
10,000
32,500
42,600
84,100
103,900
188,000
6,200
22,600
28,700
46,300
57,700
104,000
Southern Cross
16,200
40,000
56,200
149,400
139,100
288,500
Flinders Street
29,400
62,200
91,600
205,000
169,700
374,700
Domain
Arden
Parliament
Melbourne Central
Flagstaff
Table 7-12: Inner Station boarding and alightings, Full MM scheme, 2046 (constrained)
TWO HOUR AM PATRONAGE
DAILY PATRONAGE
STOPNAME
Boarding
Alighting
Total
Boarding
Alighting
Total
4,000
17,600
21,600
39,100
43,300
82,400
CBD South
12,300
48,400
60,700
108,300
116,400
224,600
CBD North
9,500
25,200
34,700
74,300
64,700
138,900
Parkville
3,700
17,100
20,800
40,900
45,400
86,400
Arden
1,700
9,500
11,200
23,400
25,100
48,500
Parliament
11,200
38,600
49,800
95,500
116,700
212,200
Melbourne Central
12,900
34,500
47,400
92,180
114,400
206,600
7,400
25,100
32,500
51,400
64,300
115,600
Southern Cross
18,800
45,400
64,200
169,500
158,800
328,300
Flinders Street
36,300
68,200
104,500
226,800
188,300
415,100
Domain
Flagstaff
Page 206 of 321
7.6
7.6.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Land use impacts
Introduction
The increase in the capacity of the existing rail network and the creation of a metro system has the
potential to significantly reshape Melbourne in a number of ways, particularly when combined with
other, supporting interventions. Its scale creates the opportunity to influence Melbourne’s long-term
urban form (Figure 7-23) by:
creating environments where higher density dwellings can be delivered via activity centres,
central activity areas (CAAs), other redevelopment sites along the rail corridor, underutilised
areas of inner Melbourne and areas around new and existing station sites;
providing opportunities for new communities in growth areas to be anchored around high capacity
and high frequency public transport, providing access to a range of locations and activities within
the metropolitan area and region;
improving accessibility to a range of existing and emerging activity and employment centres in the
south-east, north and west.
broadening the activities which can be easily accessed by public transport, particularly for existing
and the substantial additional communities to be developed in Melbourne’s west and north.
facilitating intense mixed use development with a focus on employment in North Melbourne
around the Arden station.
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Business Case
Figure 7-23: City shaping impact of Melbourne Metro
7.6.2
Improved accessibility acting as a catalyst for significant redevelopment
Significant changes to accessibility have the capacity to act as a catalyst for significant redevelopment
activity within established areas. The development of a station or service level improvements in a
brown-field location can form an anchor for the redevelopment and revitalisation of a broad precinct.
Together with the creation of high amenity places and commercial exposure, the scale and nature of
land use achievable in an area (and therefore the benefit of the infrastructure investment) will be
maximised. The key elements of access, amenity and exposure are important principles in this
context.
Significant development opportunities in the Arden precinct arise from these accessibility, amenity
and exposure principles. These provide opportunities for the expansion of higher order employment
core, better access to jobs for those living in Melbourne’s west and north and for significant dwelling
development. It is estimated that this urban renewal precinct could support up to 25,000 jobs, 7000
dwellings and 12,000 students in the station catchment, as well as stimulating additional dwelling
development beyond the immediate station catchment.
Enhanced transport corridors stretching east-west across the city will bring about a change in the
perception of some places within the metropolitan network of activities and places, stimulating
additional opportunities for urban renewal.
Page 208 of 321
7.6.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Linking jobs, activities and services to where people live
Enhancing connectivity to major centres of employment and mixed use activity centres will enable the
city to more sustainably accommodate population growth. Key activity centres outside Melbourne
CBD located along the metro lines are shown in Table 7-13 below. The creation of new
concentrations of employment, residential and other activities along metro corridors will further
enhance connectivity across the city. Providing an alternative to private transport to access a range
of services and facilities is particularly important in the context of climate change and the need for a
sustainable and efficient city.
Table 7-13: Key activity centres linked to MM
Sunshine – Domain Metro
Sunshine to Dandenong Metro
Sydenham (Watergardens) Principal Activity Centre
(PAC)
Caulfield Major Activity Centre (MAC) including
Monash University Campus
Sunshine PAC
Clayton Monash University Health Research Precinct
SAC
Footscray Central Activities District (CAD)
Footscray Victoria University – Specialised Activity
Centre (SAC)
Dandenong CAD
Parkville Medical and Bioscience SAC
Sunshine Hospital, VU St Albans
St Kilda Rd including Alfred Medical Research and
Education SAC
Fountain Gate PAC, Berwick – Monash/TAFE/Casey
Hospital
Northern Loop Metro
Cranbourne PAC
Cross-City & Frankston Loop
Metros
Broadmeadows CAD
Werribee PAC
Moonee Ponds PAC
Werribee Employment Precinct
Coburg PAC
Frankston CAD
7.6.4
Long-term city shaping
The increased level of accessibility delivered in the west and north by MM will make secondary areas
more attractive and feasible for development, particularly residential activity. For example, Sydenham
will be connected to education and employment opportunities at Parkville and it is therefore likely to
undergo a higher level of development. Whilst targeted urban renewal opportunities are an important
benefit of MM, it is also the case that the project will have benefits beyond immediate station
locations.
Recent work by DPCD has identified that the density of residential development is influenced by three
key elements:
connectivity of the site, most distinctly that the access of a development site to public transport
services and accessibility to employment strongly influence development density
context of the site, most distinctly that the density of development is influenced by the surrounding
density of the development site
characteristics of the site including the shape of the lot.
The key implication of these findings is that higher public transport accessibility will result in a higher
density development outcome along the new metro corridors. Those locations where the other factors
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Business Case
such as site context, shape of the lot and accessibility to jobs are present or are created should
experience further densification.
This work indicates that MM will result in increased capacity of areas to accommodate dwelling
development. The exact scale of this is difficult to determine. However, there is strong evidence that
MM will play a transformational role in providing a pipeline of housing supply opportunities, particularly
for higher density dwellings. In particular, higher service levels have the potential to create behaviour
changes as people respond to changes in accessibility to jobs education and other community
facilities and services. Such changes have the capacity to:
shape activity on network, in terms of increasing the quantity and diversity of activities around the
fixed rail network
shape central Melbourne, by facilitating the growth of the inner city towards the west.
Ultimately, this will ensure that Melbourne has a choice about its shape and structure, as it moves
from four to five million and beyond. A coordinated approach to maximising the benefits of these
opportunities will be required. This is particularly important given the increasing acknowledgement of
the need to provide for a settlement structure well beyond five million.
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8 Risk assessment
8.1
Risk assessment process
As part of the risk management process for the MM project, a comprehensive project risk assessment
has been conducted in accordance with AS/NZ 4360 Standard for Risk Management and the DOT
Project Risk Management Guidelines, 2009. A Risk Management Plan has been drafted for the MM
project, which sets out the context, frameworks and process for risk management of the project.
8.1.1
Objectives
The objectives of the risk assessment conducted for this business case were to:
1. Identify the assumptions underpinning the project scope
2. Identify and rate the risks to the MM project, relative to these assumptions
3. Identify proposed risk mitigation strategies and the residual (post mitigation) risk rating
4. Develop a risk register to permit the ongoing management and mitigation of risk through the
project life
5. Quantify a risk adjustment to the cost estimate to determine the overall estimated project cost.
8.1.2
Risk rating
Risks were assessed for their potential impact on five separate project consequences:
Cost
Schedule
Project/Government Reputation
Project Outcome or Benefit
Safety
Conventions regarding the likelihood, consequence and overall risk ratings were sourced from the
DOT risk guidelines referenced above. MM project-specific risk rating scales were developed to
ensure consistent application of risk likelihoods and consequence ratings (see Table 8-1 and
Table 8-2).
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Business Case
Table 8-1: MM Risk likelihood scales
Rating
Descriptor
Range of likelihood
probabilities
1
Rare
<1%
2
Unlikely
1–10%
3
Possible
10–50%
4
Likely
50–80%
5
Almost Certain
>80%
Table 8-2: MM Risk consequence scales
Rating
1
2
3
4
5
Descriptor
Negligible
Minor
Moderate
Major
Catastrophic
Cost impact
Schedule
impact
<$500k
Less than
a week
>$500k
>$5m
>$50m
>$500m
Less than
a month
1–3
months
3–6
months
6–12
months
Reputation/
outcome impact
Reputation intact. Internal
knowledge only
Minimum damage,
immediate action taken to
contain and redress issue
Media attention of local
concern
Moderate damage, required
to be advised to Secretary
Limited media coverage
Significant damage,
requiring Ministerial and/or
Secretarial involvement
Extensive and sustained
state media coverage
Irreparable Damage,
Parliamentary inquiry.
Extremely adverse publicity,
national coverage
Safety impact
Could result in first aid or
minor supportive medical
treatment incident
Could result in medical
treatment or safety
incident
Could result in temporary
partial disability or
temporary total disability,
hospitalisation or
emergency medical
treatment
Could result in permanent
partial disability or
temporary total disability
Could result in death or
permanent total disability
The likelihood and consequence scores are combined, as shown in Table 8-3 below, to assign an
overall rating for each risk, which is a semi-qualitative assessment of the risk’s severity. This matrix is
slightly different to the DOT Project Risk Management Guidelines and has been developed specific to
this Project to align with the Rail Safety Accreditation requirements set out by Transport Safety
Victoria (TSV) for achieving “So Far as Is Reasonably Practicable” (SFAIRP).
Page 212 of 321
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Business Case
Table 8-3: Risk rating matrix
CONSEQUENCE
LIKELIHOOD
1 – Rare
2 – Unlikely
3 – Possible
4 – Likely
5 – Almost Certain
8.1.3
1
2
3
4
5
Negligible
Minor
Moderate
Major
Catastrophic
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
High
Low
Medium
Medium
High
High
Low
Medium
High
High
Extreme
Medium
High
High
Extreme
Extreme
Risk workshops
A series of risk workshops were conducted with the following project workstreams:
Technical: Stations & Tunnelling
Technical: Wider Network Works
Commercial Project Delivery
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct
Land Use, Planning & Environment
Patronage, Operations & Economics
Transport Integration.
In these workshops the specific workstream assumptions were established, initial individual risk
ratings were assigned, appropriate mitigation strategies for each risk were identified and a residual
(post mitigation) risk rating was assessed. This information has been recorded in the MM Project Risk
Register which is attached at Appendix 3.
In addition, a series of concept development design workshops for the various technical subworkstreams were conducted by the Technical Advisor involving the Peer Reviewer and drawing on
input from the wider project team. This provided clarity around the scope assumptions for the project,
informed the risk workshops for the technical workstream and quantified cost impacts for technical
risks.
8.1.4
Management of change
A working group containing representatives from the operator (Metro Trains Melbourne, the
Accredited Rail Organisation), has been established to facilitate the Engineering Change,
Management of Change and Rail Safety Accreditation process for MM. This will ensure that the
requirements of Victorian Rail Safety legislation are included in the design, construction, testing,
commissioning and completion of MM and its components.
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Engineering Change refers to any configuration, maintenance or technical standard change applied
to MTM rolling stock and infrastructure operational assets. The Management of Change process
refers to the implementation of a systematic and structured process to ensure that all risks
associated with the change are identified, assessed, communicated and monitored and they are
eliminated or if not possible to be eliminated they are reduced to ‘so far as is reasonably practicable’
before the change can be implemented. It is a process for predicting, assessing and managing the
impacts of any type of change on an organisation and the safety of its activities.
The MM project risk register is therefore incremental to MTM’s risk register for the ongoing operation
of Melbourne’s rail system ie the risks are caused by the project.
8.2
Key risks
A full register of the project risks is attached as Appendix 3. A summary of the key risks that still have
a ‘high’ rating post mitigation at this stage of the project development, and the mitigating strategies,
are summarised in Table 8-4 below. The consequence categories impacted by each risk are shown.
Planning for the next phases of the project (including further development and procurement) has
focussed on mitigating these risks further.
45
Table 8-4: High-rated post-mitigation MM risks and mitigation strategies
46
Category
Risk description
Mitigation strategies
S
C
P
R
Geotechnical Risks:
Accuracy of geotechnical survey and
adequacy of Tunnel Boring Machine
(TBM) selection and construction
methodology
•
•
Damage to nearby buildings and
structures due to ground settlement
•
TBMs encounter and damage
unknown/unsurveyed manmade
structures (footings, piles, wells,
ground anchors etc)
•
Volume of, and treatment/disposal of,
contaminated soil and groundwater
•
Latent ground conditions – areas of
high risk:
45
46
-
Mined tunnels under Federation
Square
-
Cut & cover tunnels through CBD
-
River crossing (ITT or coffer dam)
-
Western portal structure
-
Crossing MURL
•
Commission well-specified and
targeted geotechnical survey; to
inform design, TBM selection, spoil
disposal strategy and risk sharing
between Owner and Contractor.
•
Conduct condition survey of MURL
and other structures to inform the
design of protection works, TBM
selection and/or tunnel alignment.
•
Rigorous monitoring regime of local
structures and community impact.
•
Ensure approvals application
accurately describes the impact of
tunnelling processes and mitigation
measures proposed.
At current stage of project
S=Safety, C=Cost, P=Program, R=Reputation, O=Outcome
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O
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46
Category
Risk description
•
Rigorous monitoring regime of local
structure and community impact.
•
Accurate assessment to be made of
sound and vibration effects; identify
sensitive receptors/stakeholders.
Physical treatments could include:
sound enclosures; temporary
accommodation for residents or while
TBMs pass; restricted TBM operating
hours.
Community or other key stakeholders
raise objections during construction and
operation due to excessive noise and
vibration impacts.
•
accurately describes the impact of
tunnelling processes and mitigation
measures proposed.
•
Management Plans to be developed
for each transport interface, which will
include early engagement with key
stakeholders.
•
Feasibility study underway on
relocation of trams of Swanston St for
duration of construction.
•
Public consultation through planning
approval process.
•
accurately describes the impact on
other transport modes and mitigation
measures proposed.
•
Temporary works (TW) designs to be
certified and independently checked.
Contract to require that the TW
designer has adequate levels of
expertise/experience. TW designs to
be accompanied by a design
certificate and an independent
checker's certificate.
•
Develop and maintain Project Safety
Management Plan.
•
Design to incorporate flood mitigation
measures and backup pumping
system. Entrance sill level placed
above 1:1000 ARI Flood Levels.
Provide backup pump system and
dual power supplies during operations
and construction.
•
The open face TBM to allow for probe
drilling during excavation to check
potential of intercepting significant
quantities of groundwater.
Adverse impacts on transport
interfaces (road, rail, tram, cycle &
pedestrian) during construction,
particularly around the underground station
worksites and CBD tunnels along
Swanston St.
Construction work injuries. Works cause
injury to workers or public due to:
•
•
An inexperienced contractor (poor
OH&S management)
Ground settlement (inadequacy of
TBM) causes building/structure
collapse
•
Flooding of tunnels or portals; or
•
Inadequate design/construction of
temporary works results in collapse.
S
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P
R
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46
Category
Risk description
•
Early and ongoing engagement with
Franchisee for to input into, and signoff on, design and performance
requirements, to ensure an acceptable
solution is delivered. Ongoing,
Franchisee to be an active participant
in the Project.
•
Regular interaction with Transport
Safety Bureau.
•
Conduct a formal Reliability,
Availability, Maintainability and Safety
(RAMS) assessment to determine
appropriate requirements for the
system, and include in contract
documentation.
Project Requirements/Completion Risk:
Inability to reach agreement with Rail
Operator (ARO) and Safety Regulator
regarding detailed functional and
operational specification of proposed
system.
Specific Issues:
•
Capability of existing fleet to meet
requirements (4% grade, platform
height, platform length)
•
TSV Certification / Regulatory
Acceptance
•
Signalling Requirements
•
Technical review with existing rolling
stock suppliers on operating
characteristics on 4% grade.
•
Develop Safety Management Plan and
Safety Case to set out accreditation
process.
•
DOT to identify and acquire
appropriate skills and resources for
the project team.
•
Interfaces between separate packages
to be comprehensively identified and
well defined, and reflected in the
contract documentation.
•
Interface management to commence
early and be ongoing management.
Through each stage of the Project.
Project review brief to include
incompatibilities and inconsistencies.
•
Further develop procurement and
packaging strategy to identify
interfaces and associated risks.
•
Invite/persuade appropriately
experienced international contractors
to bid, encourage. Encourage
collaboration between international
and local industries.
•
Consider alternative delivery options
to reduce private funding requirements
and retain core package whole to
minimise interfaces.
Work Packaging Interface and
Management Risk:
•
Optimal procurement method is not
selected;
•
Inadequate DOT management of
separate work packages and
interdependent projects; or
•
Poorly drafted contract documentation
does not adequately identify interface
requirements.
Market
Inability to support sufficient
consortia/finance for multiple, competitive
bids, resulting in higher project costs.
Funding/delivery model design does not
cater for market appetite and industrial
climate.
S
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P
R
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Category
Risk description
Inter-dependent projects identified as
•
Key interdependent projects need to
be included in project schedule.
•
Regular communication with other
project leaders to identify and address
slippage and/or scope gaps.
critical to MM operation, (Rolling stock
procurement, RRL and other rail upgrades)
are not delivered on time or do not function
as expected, requiring additional
infrastructure, or leading to an inability to
•
Business Case needs to clearly state
MM's dependence on these projects.
•
Engage planning consultancy.
•
Commission geotechnical survey.
•
Continuing resolution of project scope
and process requirements for Project
and P&E Approvals Strategy.
•
Maintain dialogue with other agencies
(eg LMA, DPCD) and relevant
Ministers.
•
Consider additional strata title buffer
around tunnel/station alignment.
•
Fact sheets to be produced as part of
Planning approval process
•
Construction planning will take
account of need to mitigate impact to
businesses and commercial
operations.
•
Decouple approvals process from
critical path of delivery program.
•
Early discussions/engagement with
unions and other relevant
stakeholders.
•
Integration of relevant stakeholders to
the governance and management
decision making process.
achieve the expected level of service.
Planning approvals process delayed as
a result of scope/process uncertainty,
including:
•
Extent of Land Acquisition
•
Resolution of contaminated soil and
groundwater treatment and disposal
•
River crossing impacts
•
CBD construction impacts
•
Uncertainty around MM scope,
tunnel/station alignment, MM tunnel
extension alignment.
•
Public Activities
•
Commercial developments in corridor
Industrial Relations: Delays due to
industrial disputes during construction,
delays in access agreements for work on
live corridor, or delays/difficulty in
achieving acceptance of new
•
Tenderers’ record on industrial
relations to be a criterion during tender
evaluation.
•
Recruitment strategy to be finalised
•
Review opportunity to package work
and engage private sector
•
Performance requirements in Project
Director’s KPIs to attract and retain
key staff
technologies/standards
Resourcing Risk:
Project fails to attract or retain
key/experienced professional services
personnel on the Project team.
S
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P
R
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Category
Risk description
S
C
P
R
O
Design Development/Scope Creep:
•
High alignment concept design not
subjected to same level of rigour as
low alignment option
•
RAMS assessments may add scope
•
Tunnel alignment envelope may
change
Land Acquisition
•
Development of Reference Design.
•
Design to agreed budget. Engagement
of experienced cost planners during
next phase of development.
•
Clear and comprehensive
documentation to support Government
decision making.
•
Define acquisition envelope and
develop a clear set of communication
plans.
•
Engagement of competent
contractors.
•
Ensure only proven equipment
suppliers are used.
Delays in corridor protection requiring
additional work on alignment to avoid
constraints that emerge on proposed
alignment
Construction
Failure of major equipment on critical path
(eg TBM) during construction.
8.3
Ensure adequate mitigation plans are
developed by Contractor and are in place.
Risk modelling
The budgeting and capital approval process for construction and infrastructure projects requires the
total outturn cost of the works to be identified at an early point in the project lifecycle. The unknown
scope and cost elements in the initial budget relate to risk and opportunity items and present
uncertainty in the final project delivery cost when the budget estimate is being formulated.
The development of a risk-adjusted cost estimate for infrastructure projects using the probabilistic
risk-based estimating process includes the following components:
Base estimate: this is the best estimate of the cost for the known scope of work that is quantified
and included in the business case.
Inherent risk: this is the uncertainty in the scope, quantities or unit cost rates for individual line
items in the base estimate. This is particularly important where assumptions have been made in
regard to scope, size, material, etc, required for the project. Often these risks relate to productivity
and quantification variance.
Contingent risk: this category includes modelling of cost imposts that may arise if the
assumptions underlying the base estimate do not prove to be valid or constant, or the occurrence
of an unforseen event. The MM Project Risk Register has been used as the basis to identify the
major contingent risks, their likelihood and impact on the project cost.
Collaborative workshops were held to establish a minimum, most likely and maximum cost impact and
probability distribution for each inherent and contingent risk. In cases where the major consequence
of a risk is on the delivery schedule, the cost of any estimated delay was inserted into the cost model
to gain a complete view of the cost implications. The @Risk software application was then used to
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perform a ‘Monte Carlo’ simulation, which provides a quantitative analysis of the inherent risk and
contingent risk. The inherent and contingent risk @Risk model inputs used to derive the contingency
figure are attached in Appendix 4.
These risk profiles have enabled the development of a risk contingency for the total project cost. The
project cost breakdown, including the above risk allowances, can be found in the next section.
8.4
Operational risk management
Once the project moves into the delivery phases an ongoing process of risk management will be
required to monitor, assess and review the status of project risks and the effectiveness of their
mitigation strategies. The risk register developed for this business case has established a framework
in keeping with the DOT risk guidelines to facilitate risk management for the duration of the project,
and to enable the current status of each risk’s rating to be determined.
In recognition of the variety of delivery strategies and work packaging configurations available to the
project team, the risks in the register have also been categorised, where possible, by scope. This will
allow individual risks to be grouped to establish different risk profiles for separate work packages,
providing a basis for informing the determination a Public Sector Comparator (assuming a PPP
delivery model) and assisting with contractual risk transfer during the procurement phase.
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9 Project cost
9.1
Overview
A breakdown of the costs of the preferred MM scope is summarised in Table 9-1 below. This includes
47
the tunnels and stations, surface works, land acquisition and the Arden precinct. More detail is
included in Appendix 4.
The initial estimated cost of the refined MM project scope is $7–7.5 billion (real, 2010/11 dollars,
reflecting the most likely and upper bound risk contingency allowances respectively at this stage of
the project). This includes an overall contingency of 28 per cent relating to the significant risks that
remain. It excludes rolling stock and related costs.
A comprehensive and robust process has been followed to develop a cost estimate of the refined
technical concept, taking into account the level of risks and uncertainties that remain at this stage of
project development. The cost estimates were established from first principles with a probabilistic
analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation, considering both planned (inherent) and unplanned
(contingent) risks for the project to determine a probabilistic range of costs.
The proposed detailed development to be undertaken in the next phase will continue to implement the
risk mitigation actions identified, undertake further value engineering and assess the opportunities.
This is expected to improve cost certainty.
47
Procurement of rolling stock is interdependent to MM, which includes rolling stock itself and enabling infrastructure such as
stabling, surface power and overhead upgrades. It is the subject of a separate business case and so is not included in the
capital cost of the project. It is included in the economic analysis however.
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Table 9-1: MM (Day 1) capital cost summary
Melbourne Metro
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48
(real, 2010/11, $m)
Cost
($m)
Scope component
Rail
Wider network surface works – Direct costs
279.0
Wider network – Site overheads and preliminaries
85.1
Underground works – Direct costs
– Western Portal
170.6
– Western driven tunnel: Western Portal to CBD North
389.6
– Cut & cover tunnel: CBD North to CBD South
341.8
– Eastern driven tunnel: CBD South to Eastern Portal
350.7
– Arden Station
179.2
– Parkville Station
232.7
– CBD North Station
291.8
– CBD South Station
344.7
– Domain Station
278.8
– Eastern Portal
123.7
– Signalling, Communications & Power
176.1
Underground works – Site overheads & preliminaries
588.8
Total Construction Costs – Rail
3,832.7
Design
282.0
Corporate Overheads & Profit
411.4
Total Design & Construction Cost – Rail
4,526.1
DOT Delivery Costs
Total Delivery Cost – Rail (excl. risk)
442.1
(1)
4,968.2
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct (Arden)
– Boulevard Construction
129.4
– Soil Contamination & Flood Mitigation
125.7
– Other Works & Project Management
– Land Acquisition (Arden)
48
71.0
122.2
Values have been rounded.
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Cost
($m)
Scope component
Total Delivery Cost – Arden (excl. risk)
(2)
49
Land Acquisition – Rail
324.9
On-costs associated with Land Acquisition
Total Cost- Land Acquisition (Rail) (excl. risk)
Total MM Project Cost (excl. risk) (1) + (2) + (3)
50
Total Contingency
448.4
81.2
(3)
406.2
5,822.7
Most Likely
Worst Case
(P50)
(P90)
on (1) – Rail
782.1
(16%)
1,346.3
(27%)
Total Contingency on (2) – Arden
107.6
(24%)
148.0
(33%)
69.0
(17%)
145.6
(36%)
958.8
(16%)
1,639.9
(28%)
Total Contingency on (3) – Land Acquisition (Rail)
Total MM Contingency
DOT Levies (2.5% of State contribution, assumed 25%)
Total MM Project Cost (Real, 2010, $m)
42.4
46.6
6,823.8
7,509.2
The above table expresses the costs of each component in direct cost terms. The total outturn costs
for each component – that is, inclusive of all indirect costs, corporate overheads and margin, delivery
costs and contingency – is shown in Table 9-2.
49
This figure does not include acquisition of the VicTrack site around Arden Station, estimated value $90m. It does include
business disruption costs associated with occupation of this site during construction.
50
Total contingency includes allowance for inherent (planned) and contingent (unplanned) risks.
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Table 9-2: MM (Day 1) estimated outturn costs by component, P90 (real, 2010/11, $m)
Scope Component
P90 Cost
($m)
Wider Network (Surface Works)
557.7
Underground works
– Western Portal
341.0
– Western driven tunnel: Western Portal to CBD North
778.9
– Cut & cover tunnel: CBD North to CBD South
683.2
– Eastern driven tunnel: CBD South to Eastern Portal
701.0
– Arden Station
358.2
– Parkville Station
465.3
– CBD North Station
583.4
– CBD South Station
689.1
– Domain Station
557.3
– Eastern Portal
247.3
– Signalling, Communications & Power
352.1
Land Acquisition - Rail Works
551.8
Subtotal MM Rail Works (including Land)
6,866.3
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct (including Land)
596.3
DOT levies
46.6
MM Total Project Cost (real, 2010, $m)
9.2
9.2.1
7,509.2
Cost estimate methodology
MM construction cost estimate
The initial costs presented above are for the preferred scope as previously outlined in this business
case, reflecting the minimum requirements to deliver the initial Day 1 service plan requirements of
MM, and incorporate recent value engineering investigations on the concept design. The estimate has
been developed by the technical advisor from first principles and assumes a D&C construction
delivery model – allowance has been made in DOT management costs for delivery of the project as a
PPP.
A peer review of the full scheme estimate was commissioned, as outlined in section 5.2. The major
findings of the Peer Review Team with respect to the project cost estimate developed by the
Technical Advisor were that direct costs are appropriate for the level of concept development, and
that indirect costs, design, corporate overheads and profit margins were optimistic.
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A risk-based analysis of overheads and profit margins has been applied to address comments related
to indirect costs from the PRT. This has given consideration to the likely delivery strategy for the
project as a PPP, and key risks and influences relating to project overheads:
Regulatory environment of the Victorian construction industry;
Design complexity and potential difficulties in obtaining rail operator acceptance;
Complex nature of commissioning;
Aversion to financial penalties;
Liquidated damages environment; and
Increased profit margins to allow for the likely level of risk borne by contractors.
9.2.2
DOT delivery costs
The next project phase will include further multidisciplinary investigations and development of the
design and tender documentation to prepare the project for the market, as well as oversight and
management of the project by the DOT project team. Provisions have been made for engagement
and cooperation of the major transport network authorities: Metro Trains Melbourne, Yarra Trams,
and VicRoads.
A provisional allowance has been allocated for headworks charges related to the increased utilities
requirements (mainly power) of the project. This allowance is considered an appropriate order of
magnitude, however further investigation will be required to provide more clarity on these
requirements.
The total provision of $442m for DOT costs amounts to approximately 10% of the contractor’s Design
and Construction costs.
9.2.3
Indicative estimated costs for the Arden urban renewal precinct preferred option (option 2) were
developed separately by DPCD for the purposes of options analysis, and a detailed breakdown of
these costs is presented in Appendix 4. It is acknowledged that more development is required to
further define the scope and develop a robust cost estimate suitable for an implementation budget.
This will be a key focus of the next project phase.
9.2.4
Land acquisition
Land acquisition requirements for the MM rail works were identified by the technical advisor, and
requirements for the Arden development were identified by DPCD. A comprehensive valuation
exercise has been conducted with the Valuer General, as previously described in section 5, and a
detailed breakdown of the estimated land acquisition costs is shown in Appendix 4.
9.2.5
Cost-risk profile and contingency
As outlined previously in the risk section, a probabilistic analysis (monte-carlo simulation) was
conducted in accordance with the standard defined in the Nation Building Program (National Land
51
Transport) Act 2009 (cost estimation standard), incorporating inherent and contingent risks for the
project. Separate risk models were developed to derive individual contingency values for the rail costs
51
Best Practice Cost Estimation for Publicly Funded Road and Rail Construction, Evans & Peck, 2008
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(stations and tunnels), Arden Development and land acquisition, due to the different risk profiles and
different levels of development of these components.
Two confidence levels have been selected to derive contingency figures for an upper (P90) and lower
(P50) bound for the total project cost as shown in Table 9-3 below, along with the expected range as
defined in the cost estimation standard for a project at ‘concept’ phase of development. The P50
contingency is above the expected range and the P90 contingency is within the expected range.
Table 9-3: MM contingencies and expected ranges
Confidence level
P50 (Best Case)
P90 (Worst Case)
Total MM contingency
Expected range
$958.8m (16%)
10–15%
$1,639.9m (28%)
25–40%
Development of the MM contingency has accounted for the following influences:
Project scope definition: The MM scope has been clearly defined and clarified through the
business case. The scope is primarily greenfield, consisting of underground stations and tunnels
around which there is a high level of confidence. Surface works and integration with the wider
network, including signalling, is a small part (less than 10%) of the MM project scope. The effort
expended in defining the boundaries of scope and hence scope definition has given confidence in
the rigour of the inclusions in the scope of the project. Allocation of certain scope items to other
projects such as HCMT and resolution of common sources of scope creep on transport projects
(eg DDA on wider network, grade separations) has been explicit and robust.
Level of design and conservatism of base estimate: The nature of the project has in turn
enabled the technical advisor to produce an inherently conservative concept design for the works.
It therefore follows that the base cost estimate includes significant conservatism and this has
52
been confirmed through an independent benchmarking study on station costs .
9.2.6
Value engineering
The design development for MM is a continuous process of seeking to refine the design to reduce
costs whilst maintaining or increasing functionality and meeting the overall project objectives as set
out in this business case. By definition, value engineering does not fundamentally change the
functionality and overall value delivered by the project.
An eminent panel of experts has peer reviewed the technical concept, including the risks and costs,
and identified a number of value engineering opportunities which have been investigated for feasibility
and costing. These are reflected in the above initial estimate, which continues to be refined as part of
the value engineering studies. These include MM1 extension feasibility study, rail operations
refinements, assessment of the higher tunnel alignment, cost benchmarking, detailed constructability
assessments, CBD station sizing and interchange design and rail safety and systems assurance
studies. In particular, a higher tunnel alignment has been adopted through the city, which changes
the tunnel and CBD station construction techniques, and reduces the overall cost. A simpler and more
effective interchange with Flinders Street Station has also been included. Additional value engineering
52
Turner & Townsend, February 2011
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opportunities have also been identified within the project scope, and will continue to be investigated
throughout the next project phase.
The considerably more cost-effective “short” tunnel extension of MM1 along Toorak Road joining the
Dandenong rail corridor at South Yarra makes the MM2 default “long” tunnel from Domain to Caulfield
along Dandenong Road redundant. Recent assessment by the project team of the relative costs of
extending MM1 via the short and (default) long tunnel schemes indicates a considerable difference of
at least $2.5 billion.
The proposed detailed development to be undertaken in the next phase will continue to implement the
risk mitigation actions identified, undertake further value engineering and assess the opportunities.
This is expected to improve cost certainty.
9.2.7
DOT levies
Given the size of this project, DOT Corporate Finance has advised an allowance of approximately $40
million for DOT levies on this project. This levy is used to fund ongoing project development of the
portfolio’s pipeline of projects.
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10 Economic assessment
10.1
Overview
This section details the methodology used and the results of the economic assessment of MM. It sets
the framework and details all elements of the economic methodology used to undertake a whole-oflife assessment of MM. Outlined are the key economic outcomes, methodological assumptions and
data sources used in calculating the suite of economic costs and benefits related to this project.
The economic benefit streams identified as part of this analysis closely align with the overall project
objectives, providing rail capacity and allowing a significant increase in public transport trips on the
metropolitan rail network that otherwise would have to be taken by alternative modes, in particular
road. In addition to the transport-related benefits the project provides important opportunities for
urban redevelopment, leading to urban consolidation benefits and a stream of wider economic
benefits (WEBs).
The economic evaluation considers all of the costs necessary to deliver the whole-of-life project
outcomes including:
MM project scope (Day 1)
>
rail tunnels from South Kensington to South Yarra
>
new underground rail stations at Arden, Parkville, CBD North, CBD South and Domain
>
surface works to accommodate 14 additional services on the Northern Group and 3 additional
services on the Caulfield Group
>
platform lengthening on Sunbury to Footscray to accommodate longer trains.
>
>
operations, maintenance and renewal of all infrastructure.
Rolling Stock (critically interdependent project):
>
new rolling stock to operate all additional services planned
>
stabling yards at Calder Park to stable, service and maintain the additional rolling stock, plus
stabling at North Melbourne to facilitate operating strategies
>
power and overhead line upgrades associated with additional train services
Part of ultimate MM project (included in economic analysis but not part of MM Day 1 scope):
>
Dandenong Rail Capacity Program
>
Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines (Melton-Ballarat and Bendigo lines) – assumed for the
purposes of this economic analysis to be part of ultimate MM scheme.
Project benefits have been categorised into:
>
transport related benefits quantified in accordance with the Australian Transport Council
(ATC) Guidelines and Victorian Department of Transport (DOT) Guidelines where appropriate
>
WEBs, including labour productivity improvements and urban consolidation benefits due to
the large-scale and city-shaping nature of the project.
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Various economic assessments have been prepared for MM since the project was originally proposed
in the EWLNA in 2008. This business case presents the most recent assessments undertaken for
both MM1 and full MM scheme in the 2010 business case. A new economic assessment will be
prepared for the "implementation" business case. The Implementation Business Case will provide an
update incorporating the latest thinking in the Metropolitan Planning Strategy (MPS) and a refined
project scope and cost (reflecting, for example, refinements from the statutory planning process). The
following provides a brief summary of the development of the economic assessment.
The EWLNA demonstrated that the full MM scheme delivered a positive economic outcome. A
subsequent economic assessment of MM was undertaken by the DOT as part of Victoria’s
submission to Infrastructure Australia (October 2008). The original analysis with the indicative cost
estimates resulted in a cost benefit ratio of 1.8 and a Net Present Value of $1.7 billion. The majority
of benefits were derived from decongestion (33%), benefits to existing and new public transport users
(collectively 26%) and WEBs (25%).
For the purposes of the route and station options assessment (March 2010) an incremental evaluation
was undertaken of various deviations from the default scheme. For example, with the addition of
Arden Station to the default scheme, at an incremental real cost of $110 million, an additional
economic benefit of urban consolidation of $300 million (NPV) was estimated, indicating a positive
variation to the project. Options were considered for adoption (or rejection) based largely on their
incremental contribution to overall benefit of the scheme with some consideration given to other
factors.
An updated assessment of the full (or ultimate) MM scheme was then completed for the 2010 MM1
Pre-Construction Business Case. This update included comprehensive modelling of travel demand,
user behaviour, Arden urban renewal project development, scope, risk and cost estimates. This full
scheme included the upgrade of the Dandenong corridor (to operate 9 car trains) and electrification to
Melton (now nominated as part of Upgrading Regional Passenger Lines project). There has been no
material change to the full MM scheme and therefore this original assessment remains valid (subject
to the comments below).
The second assessment was undertaken based on completion of the MM1 project on a "stand alone"
basis. This demonstrated that the first stage of the project (as envisaged by the EWLNA) produced a
positive economic outcome without the completion of any subsequent stages. A new assessment of
the revised MM project on a "stand alone" basis will be required to take account of changes to the
project since the 2010 assessment. The key changes compared to the 2010 MM1 scheme include:
Capital ( day 1 project) cost increased by approximately 16% reflecting the tunnel extension and
additional portal and additional surface works; and
Additional benefits due to the 21% increase in additional services being provided on the
Frankston and Sandringham lines as a result of the new through connection.
Further capacity uplift is provided from the proposed platform extensions on the Sunbury line
(equivalent to eight 6-car services in the peak hour) if the DRC Program is completed prior to MM.
Alternatively these costs and benefits could be removed from the MM scope and assigned to the
DRC program.
Overall it is expected therefore that a stand-alone assessment of the latest scheme will show a higher
BCR and NPV than the original MM1 assessment.
A number of the underlying assumptions required for the economic assessment are under review as
part of the current MPS revising many of Melbourne's medium to long term planning directions. The
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update of travel demand forecasts that underpin the economic assessment is dependent on a number
of key assumptions including
Population forecasts - the 2010 assessment was based on forecasts in Victoria in Future 2008.
(VIF2008) These forecasts are currently being reviewed and updated in the context of the MPS.
Draft forecasts have been prepared (VIF2011) but it is expected that final forecasts will not be
released until 2012.
Employment forecasts - the 2010 assessment used employment forecasts based on VIF2008.
These forecasts are also subject to review. Recent employment trends suggest that inner
Melbourne employment has grown more rapidly and is likely to grow more strongly than
previously envisaged. The employment forecasts will be updated once the population forecasts
have been released.
Transport Network Priorities - the 2010 assessment reflected underlying network assumptions
consistent with the transport policies and priorities at that time. The current government has a
number of planning studies underway and a detailed submission currently with Infrastructure
Australia that will directly affect the ultimate configuration of MM. For example, the timing of
delivery of initiatives in the DRC Program influences the MM scope. Some resolution of these
priorities is needed to resolve the assumed base case and whole of life scenarios.
It is therefore proposed to update the economic assessment once these underlying assumptions have
been resolved. Based on the information currently available the project team is not aware of any
major changes arising from the MPS that is likely to materially change the case for MM.
In a ‘city shaping’ project of this type the choice of discount rate is critical and the inclusion of
agglomeration benefits is important to align the assessment of the project with the strategic intent
established by current policy.
The evaluation of the ultimate MM project shows it is economically positive, with a BCR ranging
between 1.6 and 1.8 and an NPV of $5.6 to $6.5 billion including Wider Economic Benefits
53
(agglomeration) at a discount rate of 7% .
The results of the full MM scheme and MM1 are summarised in Table 10-1, which shows the results
for both the traditional transport benefits and the wider economic benefits (WEBs) and uses an upper
and lower range of project capital costs.
The MM1 scheme (ie terminating at Domain with no connection to the Dandenong rail corridor), has a
BCR of 1.5 to 1.7, indicating the economic merit of both extending MM1 and of the MM Day 1
scheme.
53
The lower range of the BCR and NPV results is based on the P90 costs, while the upper range is based on the P50 costs
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Table 10-1: Economic results - Ultimate MM Scheme and MM1 (7% discount rate)
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SUMMARY (present values 2010, $million)
Ultimate MM Scheme
MM1 only
7,699 - 8,515 (1)
94%
4,074 - 4,449 (1)
Capital Costs $
Capital Costs $
502.3 (2)
6%
284 (2)
Operating Costs $
Operating Costs $
$8,201 - 9,017
100%
$ 4,353 - 4,732
Total Costs
Total Costs
94%
6%
100%
Existing PT User Benefits
New PT User Benefits
Reduced Crowding (existing)
Reliability
Health Benefits of Walking
VOC Resource Correction
Parking Resource Cost Correction
Fare Resource Cost Correction
Total User Benefits
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,703
517
4,177
21
95
541
0
277
7,330 (3)
12%
4%
29%
0%
1%
4%
0%
2%
50%
Existing PT User Benefits
New PT User Benefits
Reduced Crowding (existing users)
Reliability
Health Benefits of Walking
VOC Resource Correction
Parking Resource Cost Correction
Fare Resource Cost Correction
Total User Benefits
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
569
153
1,765
13
38
178
0
123
2,839 (3)
8%
2%
24%
0%
1%
2%
0%
2%
39%
Decongestion
Accidents
Environmental
Total Externalities
Residual Value
Total Ultimate MM Traditional Benefits
Arden Transport Benefits
Total Ultimate MM Transport Benefits
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,319
233
197
1,748 (4)
2,467 (5)
11,546
326 (6)
11,872
9%
2%
1%
12%
17%
79%
2%
81%
Decongestion
Accidents
Environmental
Total Externalities
Residual Value
Total MM1 Traditional Benefits
Arden Transport Benefits
Total MM1 Transport Benefits
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
785
76
88
949 (4)
1,447 (5)
5,235
276 (6)
5,511
11%
1%
1%
13%
20%
72%
4%
76%
PV Benefits $
PV Costs $
NPV $
BCR
Urban Consolidation
Wider Economic Benefits (MM)
Wider Economic Benefits (Arden)
Total Non-Transport Benefits
Total MM Benefits
$
$
$
$
$
PV Benefits $
PV Costs $
NPV $
BCR
11,872 (7) = (3) + (4) + (5) + (6)
8,201 - 9,017 (1) + (2)
2,855 - 3,671
1.3 - 1.4
176
2,603
28
2,807 (8)
14,678
14,678 (9) = (7) + (8)
8,201 - 9,017 (1) + (2)
5,661 - 6,477
1.6 - 1.8
1%
18%
0%
19%
100%
PV Benefits $
PV Costs $
NPV $
BCR
Urban Consolidation
Wider Economic Benefits (MM1)
Wider Economic Benefits (Arden)
Total Non-Transport Benefits
Total MM1 Benefits
$
$
$
$
$
PV Benefits $
PV Costs $
NPV $
BCR
Page 230 of 321
5,511 (7) = (3) + (4) + (5) + (6)
4,353 - 4,732 (1) + (2)
779 - 1,158
1.2 - 1.3
176
1,582
28
1,786 (8)
7,296
7,296 (9) = (7) + (8)
4,353 - 4,732 (1) + (2)
2,564 - 2,943
1.5 - 1.7
2%
22%
0%
24%
100%
10.2
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Key assumptions and parameters
The economic evaluation has been undertaken in accordance with the ATC guidelines, supplemented
by the Victorian DOT Guidelines as appropriate to determine transport-related benefit streams. Nontransport related benefits have been quantified using relevant international experiences as well as
leveraging off the work done as part of the EWLNA. The evaluation incorporates all project benefits
and costs which are incremental to the base case, over a 30-year evaluation period. The key
evaluation assumptions/parameters are:
Evaluation period – The evaluation period is 30 years plus the construction period, in
accordance with Infrastructure Australia guidelines. Construction is assumed to start in 2011 with
54
operation commencing in 2020 when the transport related benefits are assumed to commence .
Base year – All monetary values have been estimated in, or adjusted to June 2010 prices.
Discount rate – In accordance with Infrastructure Australia guidelines, a real discount rate of 7%
has been used, and subjected to the recommended sensitivities of 4% and 10%. A sensitivity test
has also been conducted using the Victorian specific real discount rate of 5.5% as this is the rate
deemed most reflective of Victorian economic conditions (Victorian Government recommended
rate). It should also be noted that Her Majesty’s Treasury (United Kingdom) have produced
55
guidelines for appraisal and evaluation that recommend a discount rate of 3.5% . The UK
appraisal guidelines recognise that for long life city-shaping infrastructure, the full benefits of the
project are not realised for many decades after construction, implying a lower discount rate is
appropriate for MM. The guidelines recommend a reduced rate beyond the 30th year of the
evaluation (3% for years 31–75 and 2.5% for years 75–100) when evaluating projects with a long
asset life such as the MM project.
Annualisation factor (conversion of daily patronage numbers and benefits to an annual figure) –
An annualisation factor of 287 has been selected. Recent DOT information has indicated that
annual rail patronage is approximately 287 times the ‘equivalent normal weekday’, based on the
current relative levels of activity on normal weekdays, school holiday weekdays, Saturdays,
Sundays and public holidays. The number of equivalent weekdays can and does vary slightly
year to year depending on the movement of Easter, school and public holidays.
Value of time – The value of time is measured in accordance with the DOT Guidelines ($11.49
per hour in June 2006) and indexed by CPI to determine the June 2010 value ($12.76 per hour).
10.3
Costs
The capital cost estimates used in this economic appraisal are the incremental costs incurred in
delivering and commissioning the infrastructure and rolling stock required for the ultimate MM scheme
over the next thirty years. Costs include:
Melbourne Metro tunnels and stations
Wider network surface rail works to facilitate the service plan, including indicative costs for Melton
and Dandenong rail corridor upgrades
54
The assessment of this project has assumed construction is complete and operations commence by 2020, based on
expected delivery program and funding availability.
55
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/green book_complete.pdf
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Platform extensions
Rolling Stock purchase and refurbishment*
Stabling and maintenance facilities*
Power and overhead line equipment upgrades on the wider network to facilitate service plan*
Station refurbishment.
* part of Rolling Stock Procurement project
The total estimated capital costs over the thirty year period are $10.5 - $11.7 billion (real 2010). The
capital costs used in the economic evaluation do not include land acquisition costs and subsequently
do not include the benefits associated with uplift in land value over time. These costs are based on
the 2010 estimates of the ultimate MM scheme. They do not include the value engineering
undertaken during 2011.
Train operating and maintenance cost estimates used in this economic appraisal are the incremental
costs incurred in providing, operating and maintaining the rolling stock required for the ultimate MM
project over thirty years. All operating costs associated with the implementation of MM are estimated
based on the current franchise agreement. The cost estimates are summarised in Table 10-2 below.
Table 10-2: Ultimate MM scheme - Operating and maintenance cost assumptions (real 2010 $)
Cost element
Description
Annual Cost
Rolling stock
Incremental costs incurred in providing, operating
and maintaining the rolling stock required
New Stations
Incremental costs incurred in operating and
maintaining the five new underground stations
$15.9m
Track Infrastructure
incremental costs incurred in operating and
maintaining the new below-rail infrastructure
constructed
$11.5m
10.4
10.4.1
$27.4m (2020) – $53.3m (2049)
Transport benefits and network impacts
Transport benefits
The ATC and DOT guidelines outline a suite of benefits to be considered when evaluating transport
projects. These fall into a number of major categories:
Public transport user benefits:
>
in-vehicle, mode transfer and waiting time savings for existing and new public transport users
>
reduced crowding for existing and new public transport users
>
health benefits of walking and cycling for new public transport users
Resource cost corrections (financial transfers that are misperceived as economic costs)
>
vehicle operating costs
>
avoided parking costs
>
fares
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Externalities (benefits that accrue to the wider community as a result of diverted trips):
>
reduced road congestion
>
reduced vehicle accidents
>
reduced environmental and noise impacts
Residual Value (value of the infrastructure asset beyond the 30-year evaluation period).
The transport-based benefits have been derived from the results of the strategic network ‘four-step
demand model’ - refer section 7.5. Key transport network performance results derived from the Zenith
public transport demand model (see patronage working paper for further details) are also summarised
in this section. These results underpin the derivation of the transport economic benefits.
The methodology for calculating each of the benefit streams is outlined in the following sections. A
more detailed description of the economic assessment undertaken is available in a DOT working
56
paper and the detailed discounted cash-flow analysis is included in Appendix 5.
10.5
User benefits
User benefits and dis-benefits (herein referred to as user benefits) are calculated by estimating the
change in Consumer Surplus for all users of the transport system. Consumer surplus is defined by the
Australian Transport Council (ATC) as “the surplus of consumers’ willingness-to-pay over and above
57
what they actually pay for a given quantity of a good or service.” Given this definition, user benefits
are equal to the total change in consumer surplus. The sections below describe the existing and new
user benefits by component of public transport journey.
10.5.1
Existing user benefits
Total journey travel time savings are categorised into discrete parts of the overall public transport
journey:
In-vehicle time savings – The change in travel time due to service changes. The change in
in-vehicle time (IVT) is calculated within the patronage model and multiplied by the value of time
(VOT).
Transfer and access penalty savings – The transfer and access penalties represent user
preferences which are not explicitly measured by variables in the patronage model. Access
penalties typically reflect preferences towards certain public transport modes due to their
perceived reliability, safety, comfort, etc. Transfer penalties are included to reflect the disutility
that most users associate with interchanging, over and above the measured travel time. The
transfer and access penalties are calculated within the patronage model and multiplied by the
value of time (VOT).
Wait time savings – The reduction in wait time due to greater service frequency. The change in
wait time is calculated within the patronage model and multiplied by the VOT and a weighting of
1.4 times the value of IVT as passengers value time spent waiting for the service higher than time
spent in vehicle (ATC guidelines).
56
57
MM Economic Evaluation Report
ATC National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia, Volume 5
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Walk transfer time savings – The change in transfer time (within or between modes) due to
service changes. The change in transfer time is calculated within the patronage model and
multiplied by the VOT and a weighting of 2.0 times the value of IVT as passengers value time
spent transferring between services at twice that of time spent in vehicle (ATC guidelines). For
this project there is a slight increase in walk transfer time and this is therefore included as a
disbenefit.
Access and egress time savings – The aggregate change in walk and car access and egress
time. The change in access/egress time is calculated within the patronage model and multiplied
by the VOT and a weighting of 1.4 times the value of IVT as passengers value time spent
accessing the service and reaching their final destination upon disembarking at 1.4 that of time
spent in vehicle (ATC guidelines).
Reduced crowding – Crowding, or crowded IVT, valuation reflects the discomfort passengers
feel from travelling in varying levels of crowded conditions. As crowding levels increase to crush
capacity, the valuation of crowding in IVT minutes also increases. The crowding benefits have
been derived using the prescribed value of time for each level of crowding according to the ATC
guidelines. The ATC guidelines are silent on the value of in-vehicle time to be applied in
conditions beyond crush capacity. This analysis has assumed that the value of IVT continues to
increase beyond crush capacity. It was noted that the application of the ATC guidelines resulted
in train loads in excess of crush capacity which suggests the guidelines undervalue the impact of
commuting in crowded conditions. This results in a high estimate of crowding benefits but a low
decongestion benefit due to the smaller diversion of passengers to car. Further analysis will be
undertaken to develop more realistic modelling assumptions.
Rail network reliability benefits – Public transport users not only value travel time savings but
also improvements in the reliability of travel times. Where there is significant variability in journey
times, transport users may be required to allow more time for the journey to reduce the probability
of arriving late at their destination. If this variability in travel time is reduced, then transport users
benefit from being able to reduce the extra time allowance. Reliability improvements have been
quantified and converted to an equivalent IVT saving that is then multiplied by three in
accordance with ATC guidelines to reflect the value of unexpected wait time that occurs in
unreliable travelling conditions.
10.5.2
New user benefits
New users were computed as a result of additional services/capacity provided by the project; the ‘rule
of a half’ convention is applied to calculate new users’ consumer surplus based on the abovementioned methodology for existing users, as per ATC Guidelines.
Transport systems and urban form are also increasingly recognised as a factor influencing public
health outcomes, and in particular it is considered that car-dependency has led to the creation of
obesogenic environments (an environment which promotes gaining weight and is not conducive to
losing weight).
By increasing the attractiveness of rail travel as an alternative to car travel, people are more likely to
engage in incidental exercise when travelling to stations. This is likely to produce a reduction in the
intensity and scale of obesity and other illnesses caused by lack of exercise. This will subsequently
have an impact on health care costs.
The values of health benefits associated with walking and cycling are derived from research
conducted by the New Zealand Transport Agency (2008) and developed in accordance with DOT
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guidelines. Health benefits are quantified by applying an average distance of public transport access
trip of 700 metres (VISTA Survey) to additional walk access trips derived through the patronage
modelling. The dollar per kilometre rate in accordance with the DOT Guidelines is then applied to
derive the benefit stream. It is assumed 95% of these additional access trips are walk and 5% are
bicycle.
10.5.3
Resource cost corrections
The general principle with perceived benefits/dis-benefits is that travellers will fully perceive time and
comfort aspects and out of pocket costs such as fuel and car parking. These aspects/costs are taken
into account in their choice of mode and hence in the benefit to travel behaviour changers. However,
in many cases the out of pocket costs are not an accurate reflection of resource costs, hence there is
the need for resource cost corrections.
10.5.4
Vehicle operating cost savings
A proportion of vehicle operating costs are considered by motorists and therefore taken into account
in the net benefit to a change in travel behaviour. Only the fuel component of vehicle operating costs
is considered when individuals are determining their travel choices. Therefore, a resource cost
correction is necessary for the difference between the considered (fuel) cost and the total resource
cost of vehicle operating costs. The reduction in vehicle kilometres as a result of car users diverting
from the road to public transport is multiplied by a per-kilometre value derived from the AustRoads /
DOT guidelines vehicle operating costs calculator.
10.5.5
Car parking resource cost correction
Reduced car usage results in a reduction in the demand for parking facilities. The resource costs of
car parking can include the opportunity cost of land, the capital cost of parking facilities and the
provision of adequate security.
The number of reduced AM peak CBD bound car trips is multiplied by average CBD parking fees
(less tax). The ‘rule of half’ has been applied to the car parking resource cost correction as it applies
to new public transport users diverting from road.
10.5.6
Fare resource cost correction
All new public transport users have to pay a fare, which is part of their perceived costs in making their
mode choice decision. However, as the resource cost (capital and operating costs) is included in the
economic evaluation, fares are a transfer payment. Accordingly it is necessary to add it back in as a
component of the benefits to accurately derive the net resource benefit.
The number of new users is multiplied by a weighted average fare price. The average fare price is
based on actual Metlink ticket validations across the Melbourne public transport network for 2008/09.
10.6
10.6.1
Externalities
Congestion benefits
Congestion benefits are defined as travel time savings accruing to remaining private and commercial
road users as a result of some drivers diverting to rail. These benefits are derived from the VLC
Zenith model outputs, which provide global time savings for the entire road network. Congestion cost
outputs from the Zenith model are then applied to the ATC guideline parameters for VOT.
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10.6.2
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Business Case
Environmental externalities
The reduction in private and commercial vehicle kilometres as calculated by the patronage model is
used to calculate the corresponding reduction in air/noise/water/pollutants as per the ATC guidelines.
In addition to assessing the greenhouse gas emissions associated with operation, the emissions
associated with construction have also been assessed. Infrastructure Australia has published a
revised Reform and Investment Framework Templates for Use by Proponents – Stage 7 in October
2010. The revised templates propose a deviation for the ATC Guidelines when pricing carbon
emissions. According to the ATC guidelines, the recommended parameter for greenhouse gases are
based on a value of carbon that remains at $10 per tonne in real terms through time. However,
scenario analysis prepared in 2008 by the Australian Treasury finds that the estimated carbon price
rises in real terms over time, rising to between $80–$130 per tonne in 2040 (in 2005 real dollars).
Infrastructure Australia is of the view that the price of carbon will indeed rise in real terms over time,
and therefore all submissions should include a price of carbon which rises in real terms, utilising the
lower series of the Australian Treasury projections in the BCR estimate. This project has adopted the
abovementioned methodology.
10.6.3
Accident savings
The reduction in private and commercial vehicle kilometres calculated by the patronage model is used
to estimate the reduction in accidents as per the ATC guidelines which apply an avoided accident cost
per vehicle kilometre.
10.7
Residual value
The Infrastructure Australia guidelines specify the following treatment of the residual value of the
asset.
For infrastructure assets with a life of more than 30 years, a residual value
should be included, where appropriate. There are two potential methodological
approaches: first, for the residual value to be calculated using an approach
which estimates the Net Present Value of the future benefit stream provided by
the asset (to the end of the asset life); second, more traditional approaches
based around straight line depreciation of asset values. Infrastructure Australia
is receptive to both approaches.
The ATC guidelines specify the asset life of a tunnel to be 100 years. Given the significant
infrastructure asset life of the MM project it is prudent to accurately reflect the residual value of the
asset beyond the mandated 30-year evaluation period. Therefore, the residual value has been
quantified using the Net Present Value of the future benefit streams. The quantification has
th
conservatively used the benefit stream in the 30 year of the evaluation, less the cost of maintaining
the required level of rolling stock, as fixed for years 31–100. The Net Present Value of these future
benefits has been calculated by applying a real discount rate of 6% between years 31–75 and 5%
between years 76–100. The decline in the long-term discount rate is consistent with the appraisal
guidelines produced by Her Majesty’s Treasury.
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10.8
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Arden transport benefits
Traditional transport benefits that are realised specifically through the Arden development have been
derived through the patronage model independently of the broader MM scheme to ensure that double
counting is avoided. The quantification of the suite of transport benefits has been undertaken using
the same assumptions and parameters to ensure that the analysis is consistent with the MM and full
scheme evaluations.
To avoid double counting of transport benefits, specific patronage modelling was undertaken using
the base case MM scenario without any redevelopment of Arden. The project case was then to apply
the Arden redevelopment to determine the incremental benefit streams. Key transport related
benefits resulting from the Arden development are:
decongestion benefits (44%)
existing PT user benefits (14%)
VOC resource cost correction (12%)
The urban consolidation benefits specifically relate to the development of Arden and the subsequent
savings from not having to provide additional land and infrastructure on the urban fringe.
10.9
Wider economic benefits
The wider economic benefits (WEBs) of the MM have been assessed, focussing on business
58
agglomeration . Human capital development effects have been considered but not been quantified
and are discussed in the social assessment section.
10.9.1
Agglomeration
As well as delivering benefits to public transport users, road users and the environment, a project like
MM can be expected to change the way firms interact with each other, with final consumers and with
the labour force, enabling production efficiencies that would otherwise not be available to them.
These benefits arise from the ‘city shaping’ effects of the rail project.
Agglomeration externalities relate to the benefits which flow to firms and households from locating in
areas which have a high density of economic activity (measured by employment). Such locations
allow firms to achieve economies of scale through access to an extensive customer base. This large
customer base presents firms the opportunity for economies of scope. That is, with increased
numbers of clients, firms gain efficiencies by specialising in a particular field. With many firms located
together there will be a high level of knowledge transfer between firms, which will help bolster
innovation. This innovation is vital for firms to survive in a competitive market place.
The degree of business agglomeration in any given location can be measured by Effective Job
Density (EJD); that is the number of jobs hosted by that location plus other jobs accessible to that
location divided by the travel time (or cost) incurred by economic transactors in reaching all these
jobs. The land use and transport context section discussed the current EJD conditions in
metropolitan Melbourne. The land use and transport changes in EJD brought about by MM, as at
2031, are shown in Figure 10-1. This indicates that the primary beneficiaries of the MM in terms of
EJD will be the western, northern and outer south-eastern sub-regions of Melbourne.
58
Agglomeration Benefits of the Melbourne Metro, Draft Report, SGS, November 2010
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The land use projections included in the transport model are assumed to broadly reflect the land use
changes brought about by MM, given MM supports those changes. However a base case land use
model has not been assessed (except for at Arden), hence only the agglomeration benefits due to
transport and Arden are included in the economic analysis.
Figure 10-1: Effective job density impact of MM (2031)
Source: SGS Economics & Planning
Figure 10-2 shows that those industries with the highest productivity elasticity with respect to
agglomeration are those which are closely associated with Melbourne’s reputation for liveability
(accommodation, cafes and restaurants, personal and other services, cultural and recreational
services etc) and its status as a recognised Knowledge City (property and business services, finance
and insurance).
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A number of overseas studies have shown that productivity elasticities with respect to EJD (ie the
percentage change in industry or firm level productivity with a doubling of EJD) range from 5% to
59
13% .
SGS has constructed a database for Melbourne which has allowed the estimation of Melbournespecific elasticities of agglomeration-related productivity effects, broken down by industry sector. The
database contains industry labour productivity for each Statistical Local Area (SLA) in Melbourne and
the associated EJD for the SLA. Regression analysis has shown an average elasticity of 8%, which is
in the mid range evident in the literature. Also consistent with the literature is the finding that
knowledge intensive sectors enjoy much stronger productivity elasticities with respect to EJD, for
example, Property and Business Services at 17%.
Figure 10-2: Agglomeration productivity elasticity versus industry growth
versus industry size
Source: SGS Economics & Planning Pty Ltd
When the labour productivity elasticities estimated by SGS are applied to the MM-induced changes in
EJD, the impact on Melbourne Gross Value Added (GVA) is indicated to be $128 million in 2031 and
$384 million in 2046 (Table 10-3). The present value (over 30 years) of the recurrent increases in
GVA enabled by MM is $864 million at a discount rate of 7%. However, these benefits will be ongoing
beyond this 30-year period. Assuming that the MM-induced GVA boost in 2046 continues indefinitely
at this fixed level (a conservative position), the present value of this residual benefit is $720 million at
a discount rate of 7%. Thus the total value of the agglomeration-based GVA boost offered by the MM
is approximately $1.6 billion.
59
Mare, D. and Graham, D. (2009) Agglomeration Elasticities in New Zealand, Motu Working Paper No. 09-06;
Trubka , R. (2009) Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity: Preliminary Estimates of Agglomeration Benefits in
Australian Cities, Curtin University’s Sustainability Policy Institute.
Graham, D.J. (2006), Wider Economic Benefits of Transport Improvement: Link between Agglomeration and Productivity,
Stage 2 Report, prepared for the Department for Transport, London.
Ciccone, A. and Hall, R.E. (1996) Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity. American Economic Review 86:54-70.
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Table 10-3: Industry labour productivity impact ($ thousand) of MM by industry sector
Sector
2021
2031
2046
-10,964
-48,799
-68,627
6,083
41,211
76,377
881
6,779
15,639
2,190
18,371
46,182
758
8,225
18,488
Transport & Storage
-4,563
-30,401
-64,016
Finance & Insurance
-1,060
22,229
87,963
Property & Business Services
5,245
60,084
162,245
Education
1,361
10,216
18,951
Health & Community Services
1,160
15,302
34,534
757
8,635
19,163
Personal & Other Services
3,652
16,303
37,140
Total
5,498
128,154
384,041
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants
Cultural & Recreational Services
Impact Relative to Melbourne GDP
In terms of the boost to SLA value added, measured in proportional terms, MM would have the
strongest impact on Melton East, Hobsons Bay (Williamstown), Brimbank (Keilor), Maribyrnong and
Melton (Balance), reflecting the accessibility shifts described earlier. In absolute terms, the biggest
impacts in GVA are expected to be felt in the inner city areas of Melbourne, Docklands and Port
Phillip West (Table 10-4).
Table 10-4: Impact of MM on GVA of selected SLA
$ Thousand Impact
% of SLA GVA
Area
2021
2031
2046
-$4,619
$10,058
$40,902
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
Melbourne (C) – S'bank-D'lands
$6,607
$19,253
$43,211
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
Melbourne (C) – Kensington & Nth Melbourne
$1,539
$5,428
$10,702
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
-$1,031
-$1,325
$2,620
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Port Phillip (C) – West
$4,603
$10,022
$33,569
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
Brimbank (C) – Keilor
$2,054
$8,250
$24,451
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
Brimbank (C) – Sunshine
$1,209
$5,592
$25,496
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
Melbourne (C) – Inner
Port Phillip (C) – St Kilda
2021
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Business Case
$ Thousand Impact
% of SLA GVA
Area
2021
Hobsons Bay (C) – Altona
2031
2046
2021
2031
2046
$909
$5,077
$14,204
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
Hobsons Bay (C) – Williamstown
$1,907
$7,428
$15,271
0.1%
0.5%
0.7%
Maribyrnong (C)
$4,231
$14,447
$25,593
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
Moonee Valley (C) – Essendon
$713
$6,251
$18,650
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
Moonee Valley (C) – West
$299
$2,407
$7,413
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
Melton (S) – East
$1,184
$6,158
$13,152
0.2%
0.7%
1.3%
Melton (S) Bal
$2,087
$9,024
$14,475
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
Wyndham (C) – North
$1,445
$11,918
$22,796
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
The ratio between the agglomeration benefits estimated by SGS and the transport benefits of the
project described earlier is in the same order of magnitude as the Jubilee Line Extension (which has
parallels to MM) and other transport projects from the United Kingdom.
10.10 Sensitivity tests and conclusion
10.10.1 Sensitivity tests
Sensitivity tests were undertaken as part of the economic analysis to assess the impact of changes in
major assumptions to the economic viability of the project. The sensitivity tests have been undertaken
using the upper bound cost estimates. The sensitivity test results in Table 10-5 show a broad range
of sensitivity tests conducted on the upper bound cost estimate.
The appraisal is quite sensitive to the discount rate applied, as shown by the IA-recommended tests
of 4% and 10% which have been conducted. Sensitivity tests on discount rates used in Victoria
(5.5%) and the United Kingdom (3.5%) have also been conducted, enabling comparison of the
economic performance of MM with that of other projects in those jurisdictions.
Sensitivity tests around the capital cost, vehicle kilometre savings and WEB benefit streams have also
been undertaken. Under each of the broad ranging sensitivity test the project remains viable with a
BCR above one and a strongly positive NPV.
London’s CrossRail scheme, which, like MM, links people and jobs across London and addresses
inner city rail congestion, has a BCR of 2.6 – 3.6 without WEBs at a 3.5% discount rate, depending on
the value of time adopted, which is comparable to the MM project. MM delivers an NPV of almost $30
billion and a BCR of 3.6 at the UK discount rate.
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Table 10-5: Summary of sensitivity test results (including labour productivity and urban
consolidation)
Sens
Test
No
Input
0
Core evaluation result (IA 7%, P90 costs)
NPV
($m)
BCR
-
5,634
1.6
Lower Bound Cost
P50 costs
6,450
1.8
1
Capital cost (construction)
increased by 30%
3,270
1.3
2
Capital cost (construction)
decreased by 30%
7,998
2.2
3
Car km saved
decreased by 30%
5,270
1.6
4
Discount rate (IA)
10%
1,065
1.1
5
Discount rate (Vic)
5.5%
11,342
2.1
6
Discount rate (IA)
4%
23,109
3.1
7
Discount rate (UK)
3.5%
29,583
3.6
8
WEB
decreased by 50%
5,060
1.6
Variation
10.10.2 Conclusion
The 2010 economic assessments of the ultimate MM scheme and MM1 demonstrates the economic
merit of the scheme in part and in whole.
The MM evaluation developed in accordance with Infrastructure Australia guidelines (7% real discount
rate, 30-year evaluation period and quantification of WEBs) delivers a BCR of 1.6–1.8 and an NPV of
$5.6–$6.5 billion.
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11
11.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Environmental assessment
Overview
MM will deliver positive whole-of-life environmental outcomes, including reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, air pollution, noise and water pollution and land consumption as a result of reductions in
private vehicle travel and a more compact urban form.
A preliminary quantitative assessment of the net greenhouse gas emissions impact of MM shows a
reduction of approximately 8 MtCO2e, taking into account both the construction phase and operations
to 2046. This is equivalent to more than three times the total growth in Victorian transport sector
emissions over the past decade. Construction-related emissions are ‘paid back’ within three years of
operation. Furthermore, the city shaping outcomes of MM will drive a more efficient urban form,
delivering additional carbon-reduction benefits and helping to position Melbourne for a carbonconstrained future.
There will, however, be local environmental and social impacts during the construction of MM.
Through the development of the technical concept, efforts have been made to reduce these impacts
and mitigation actions identified for those that cannot be eliminated. The residual environmental and
social risks have been assessed as largely negligible or low post-mitigation. Notable exceptions to
this are:
•
surface transport disruption at the Parkville and Domain Station worksites which are located near
arterial roads and the cut and cover tunnelling of Swanston Street which is a heavily patronised
tram route and pedestrian area;
•
construction vibration impacts on research facilities at Parkville during construction, which will
have been assessed as a moderate impact (ie similar to the impact associated with other major
developments in the area) and heritage impacts on the Royal Parade heritage boulevard;
•
the crossing of the Yarra River and its impact on the use and enjoyment of the Yarra and environs
which will also have a moderate impact.
These temporary impacts are far outweighed by the permanent enhancements to the city’s human
capital and ability to respond to climate change.
A procurement strategy has been developed for the purpose of this business case, taking a
‘bottom-up’ approach considering wider environmental benefits.
11.2
11.2.1
Preliminary environmental benefits
Greenhouse gas emissions reductions
A whole-of-life assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with MM has been
undertaken out to 2046. The analysis considered:
GHG emissions resulting from the construction of MM
GHG emissions resulting from the construction of required rolling stock
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Business Case
GHG emissions resulting from the operation of MM
GHG emissions saved through mode shift as a result of MM.
60
The assessment did not consider the additional emission savings associated with the likely changes
in urban form as a result of MM.
The net GHG emission impact of MM is a reduction in GHG emissions of 8 million tCO2e, equivalent
to more than three times the total growth in Victorian transport sector emissions between 1998 and
2008. The emissions produced in construction are ‘paid back’ within three years of operation, as
Figure 11-1: Cumulative GHG emissions associated with MM construction and operation
Net cumulative GHG emissions resulting from the construction and operation of MM
1,000,000
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
-1,000,000
-2,000,000
tCO2e
-3,000,000
-4,000,000
-5,000,000
-6,000,000
-7,000,000
-8,000,000
-9,000,000
11.2.2
Air, noise, water and other pollutant reductions
MM will result in a reduction in private and commercial vehicle travel of approximately 1.5 million
kilometres by 2046. This has been derived from the strategic transport model.
This reduction in private vehicle travel results in reduced pollutant and amenity impacts on
metropolitan Melbourne, for example reduced:
exhaust emissions from vehicles
oil, rubber debris and other pollutant emissions released to road surfaces and associated
stormwater infrastructure
60
Greenhouse Gas Emissions associated with MM, Draft Working Paper, DOT, November 2010
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noise to adjoining properties.
The economic value of these reductions can be estimated based on an average rate per kilometre of
vehicles travelled in accordance with the Australian Transport Council’s project appraisal guidelines
and have been factored into the project economic analysis as externalities benefiting the community.
11.2.3
More compact urban form
One of the major drivers and benefits of the project is the opportunity to create a more compact urban
form. This outcome is fundamental to the premise of this business case and ultimately this more
compact urban form will drive and complement macro environmental benefits that have not been
quantified in the economic assessment of the project.
The benefits of greater urban density and improved accessibility can be qualitatively measured in the
reduced environmental footprint of the Melbourne metropolitan area for example through:
reduced pressure on growth area development allowing the retention of peri-urban areas as
green wedges and farming land
reduced consumption (and resultant greenhouse gas emissions) resulting from peri-urban
development, for example reduced stationary energy use, water use, infrastructure provision,
embodied energy in larger households on the fringe etc
reduced private vehicle travel (as discussed above)
increased human capital and accessibility (discussed in the next section).
11.3
11.3.1
Preliminary environmental impacts
Summary
Preliminary planning and environmental assessments have been undertaken to inform the options
assessment process for MM and to assess the concept developed for business case, assessments
have continued to assess potential impacts resulting from the high-alignment value engineering
investigations. These environmental assessments focussed on the impacts of the project largely in
the construction phase to aid in the development of a ‘least impact’ concept design.
This work has identified the key environmental risks for the project and the areas that will require
further assessment as part of the detailed planning and environmental approval process throughout
2012 that has been described later in this report. After implementation of mitigation measures,
impacts can generally be contained to negligible or low impact, with the exceptions being transport
impacts during construction around busy inner city station locations and social, land use and noise
issues associated with the state significant hospitals and education precinct around Parkville station
and the Yarra River crossing. It is expected that further mitigation works will be established which can
contain these impacts to acceptable levels.
A summary of the impacts of the preferred MM tunnel alignment across specialist areas is provided in
Table 11-1. This work was completed in three stages:
Stage 1 – a high-level assessment of the various options considered for the MM Tunnel
alignment and station locations and MM2 tunnel alignment and station locations.
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Stage 2 – a targeted assessment of the preferred project components including the five MM
stations, the surface works in the South Kensington – Sunbury corridor such as stabling yard and
61
grade separations .
Stage 3 – targeted assessments of value engineering opportunities including the high alignment
which results in a shallow crossing of the Yarra River which must be completed top down.
The table shows the impacts after the implementation of mitigation measures with the unmitigated
impacts provided underneath. The impact ratings in the summary table refer to the scale of impacts
shown in Table 11-2 below.
61
Stabling and grade separations are not part of MM scope. Stabling is part of rolling stock procurement.
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Table 11-1: Summary of environmental impacts of MM project (post mitigation)
Flora and Fauna
Aboriginal
Cultural Heritage
Non Aboriginal
Cultural Heritage
Western Tunnel
Portal
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Arden Station
Negligible
Parkville Station
Negligible
CBD North
Station
Negligible
CBD South
Station
Negligible
Negligible
Contaminated
Soil and
Groundwater/
Natural Geology
Transport
Land Use
Planning
Social Planning
(including Noise
and Air Quality)
Negligible
Low
Negligible
Negligible
(Low)
(Moderate)
(Low)
(Low)
Low
Negligible
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
(High)
(High)
(Moderate)
(Major)
(Major)
Negligible
Low
Moderate/High
Low
Low
Low
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(Major)
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(High)
Negligible
Low
Moderate/High
Low
Low
Low
(Major)
(Moderate)
(Major)
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(High)
Low
Negligible
Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate
(High)
(Major)
(High)
(Major)
(Moderate)
(Major)
Domain Station
Negligible
Negligible
Eastern Tunnel
Portal
Negligible
Negligible
Tunnel
(alignment
between stations)
Negligible
Negligible
Yarra River
Crossing
(Major)
Negligible
Negligible
(High)
Negligible
Low
Negligible
(Moderate)
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
(High)
(Major)
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(High)
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(Moderate)
(High)
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
(Low)
Negligible
Low
(Moderate)
Note where impact rating has been changed after the implementation of Mitigation Measures the initial impact rating is provided in brackets.
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Table 11-2: Impact rating for environmental assessments
Impact Rating
11.3.2
Description of Rating
Major
High level of impact for Melbourne
High
High level of impact for a region of Melbourne
Moderate
High level of impact for the local are or moderate impact over a
broader area
Low
Low level of impact for some local areas or high impact for small
groups of people
Negligible
Minimal if any impact for local areas. Potentially some impact for
small groups of people
Flora and Fauna
Potentially high impact mitigated to low impact
The MM tunnel is in a heavily modified inner urban environment and will therefore have limited
interaction with significant flora and fauna.
The impacts to land based flora and fauna have been assessed as insignificant throughout the study
area and generally relate to the removal of ornamental street trees in and around the station locations
and portal.
The crossing of the Yarra River presents some additional challenges with respect to fish species
within the river including a nationally listed species however these impacts are manageable.
These impacts can be reduced by appropriate tree protection and if required tree replacement in the
construction phase.
11.3.3
Aboriginal Cultural Heritage
Potentially major impact mitigated to low impact
The Aboriginal Heritage Act can require Cultural Heritage Management Plans (CHMP) to be prepared
for a number of types of works in proximity to areas deemed to be of cultural significance. MM will
require a CHMP as a result of the Arden and CBD South Stations being within 200m of the Moonee
Ponds Creek and Yarra River. Water courses are known to often contain sites of cultural significance
to indigenous communities.
Ultimately these locations are heavily modified inner urban watercourses and the surface interactions
of project works at the station boxes and Yarra River Crossing do not interact with any known heritage
sites.
There are some ‘registered places’ in the vicinity of the proposed CBD station sites however these are
not on the alignment and are unlikely to be impacted. These issues will also be covered in the
CHMP.
The CHMP is therefore likely to be a desktop-based mitigation measure reducing the risk of this issue
delaying the project to low to almost nil.
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11.3.4
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Non-aboriginal cultural heritage
Potentially high impact mitigated to moderate impact
The stations at Parkville, CBD North and South and Domain are located in areas with substantial
heritage assets or precincts of both State and local significance that are covered by heritage overlays
or the Victorian Heritage Register.
Like all buildings along the route detailed investigations into the ground conditions and construction
techniques will be required to manage issues such as subsistence impacting on these heritage sites.
The interaction between surface MM infrastructure (eg station entries) and the heritage buildings will
also need to be assessed with sympathetic urban design treatments required in close proximity to
heritage buildings.
A moderate impact relates to Melbourne’s heritage boulevards Royal Parade and St Kilda Road and
the development of integrated tram/train interchanges in the centre of these roads. Heritage Victoria is
aware of these issues and further information and discussion is needed to make an informed
judgement on the impact during the approvals process.
The Shrine of Remembrance is a significant heritage asset and any impact on the Shrine and grounds
will need to be resolved with the Shrine Trust and in consultation with heritage agencies.
These issues will be managed mainly through early consultation with heritage groups, sympathetic
designs and construction methods in close proximity to heritage sites. This may result in some
alterations to the business case design for example altering the emergency egress currently located
in the Shrine grounds at Domain Station to an alternative location.
11.3.5
Transport
Major impact mitigated to moderate/high impact
MM will ultimately deliver transport benefits to Melbourne but during the construction phase of the
project a number of transport impacts through road, tram and cycle route closures and diversions will
be required.
These impacts will include construction of station boxes in the road reserves of:
Royal Parade
Grattan Street
Swanston Street
St Kilda Road.
Construction for the length of Swanston Street is also likely to be cut and cover including crossings of
La Trobe, Lonsdale, Bourke, Collins and Flinders Streets.
Managing these impacts will require detailed construction planning to minimise delays (as has already
been completed on a preliminary level for the business case design) and then a robust
communications process during the construction phase.
Construction traffic (eg for spoil removal from the North Melbourne site) will also need to be monitored
and directed to appropriate roads away from residential areas and activity centres.
Modelling of permanent traffic network changes such as reducing lanes on Grattan Street, Royal
Parade and St Kilda Road is also required to gain VicRoads approval to the MM project.
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The MM project has completed significant preliminary work on local access issues to the station
locations (as detailed in the options assessment and scope sections) and also assessing the potential
benefits to the tram network. These are opportunities for the project to build on throughout the
development and construction cycle of the project.
11.3.6
Contaminated soil and groundwater
Potential high impact mitigated to low impact
As the tunnel and all the stations are being constructed in existing urban areas, there is a strong
likelihood that the project will encounter contaminated soils and groundwater as a result of current
and historic land uses.
Arden Station has been assessed as having the highest likelihood of contaminated soils and
groundwater due to its current and historic industrial land uses and the presence of a shallow
groundwater table. Existing Coode Island Silt soils which can contain acid sulphate soils are also
found in this area.
Further environmental assessments will determine appropriate measures to manage the excavation,
handling and disposal of contaminated material. This process will be no different to the many
commercial developments completed in Melbourne each year.
11.3.7
Noise and vibration
Potential high impact mitigated to moderate impact
Noise and vibration impacts are most commonly associated with ‘sensitive receptors’ such as
residences, schools and hospitals. The MM project will pass through the nationally significant
Parkville hospitals and bio-technology precinct. The patients, equipment and animals at these
facilities are likely to be highly sensitive to noise and vibration associated with construction.
More moderate impacts have been assessed for other station locations and the tunnel portal in and
around the dense inner city environment through which the project passes.
Mitigation measures are available to significantly reduce the noise and vibration impacts such as the
choice of construction equipment used and the hours of operation impacts.
As with the contaminated soil this issue has not prevented other commercial construction projects,
including those with large basements similar in construction technique to the station boxes, from
proceeding in the Parkville area.
11.3.8
Air quality and greenhouse gases
Potentially moderate impact mitigated to minor impact
Local air quality may be impacted during the construction phase as dust from station worksites and
fumes from increased construction truck traffic impact on local areas. These issues are common
construction management issues that will require standard mitigation procedures for dust suppression
and choice of haulage routes.
Ultimately the project will deliver improved air quality and reduced greenhouse gas emissions by
providing for a significant uplift in public transport accessibility, capacity and priority to and around the
inner city.
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11.3.9
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Water use, quality and contamination
Potentially major impact mitigated to moderate impact
The crossing of the Yarra River will require disturbance of the river bed and top down construction
within the river and riverbanks. There is potential for this to impact on water quality however these
impacts are manageable as evidenced by similar crossings of the Yarra River for Citylink and the
Melbourne Main Sewer Replacement Project.
The Tunnel Portal will require capture and rejection of rain runoff to avoid water within the tunnel itself
although the volumes of water are minimal.
Station locations will be within the street/urban fabric and provide no additional challenges beyond
standard construction sites.
11.3.10 Land use
Potential Major Impact mitigated to Low Impact
The major land use implications of the project relate to impacts on state significant land uses such as
Federation Square, St Paul’s Cathedral, State Library, RMIT, the Royal Botanic Gardens, the Shrine
of Remembrance, Melbourne University and the Parkville medical and bio-technology precinct.
Without mitigation there would also be major impacts on the commercial, tourism and retail uses
around the Swanston Street stations.
These impacts largely relate to the integration of the project into its surrounds. This may be a
physical relationship between a station entry and surrounding buildings or flow-on effects of increased
pedestrian traffic in the immediate vicinity of station entrances.
The development of urban design principles for the station entry sites and any associated above
station developments will be the main management measure for this impact which is also heavily
linked to impact areas such as heritage, transport and social impacts.
Discussion of positive macro-land use impacts is included in the next section.
11.3.11 Social impacts
Major Impact mitigated to Moderate Impact
Social impacts of the MM project will occur along the entire project route during construction. These
are discussed in more detail in the next section.
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12
12.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Social assessment
Overview
The spatial distribution of urban development affects the accessibility of activities, facilities and
employment opportunities and this is an important element of social assessment of a project. MM will
improve household access to goods and services via improved transport, stemming from two distinct
factors:
providers relocating to more accessible locations across the metropolitan area, notably the Arden
Urban Renewal Precinct
reduced travel times across the metropolitan area and therefore the extension of the catchment
within an acceptable travel time for households.
MM will ultimately deliver significant net social benefits including improvements to the stock of human
capital through improved accessibility to jobs, education opportunities and the CBD, reduced reliance
on private motor vehicles and costs of transport and improved liveability of the city through more
intensive and higher amenity urban development, leading to reduced crime.
Access to goods and services is also important in promoting both personal wellbeing and societal
welfare, such as choice in retail offerings. Improved accessibility is an integral part of the drive to
increase participation and achievement in education, to improve health outcomes and to increase
opportunities for sport, the uptake of hobbies, and entertainment.
The project’s construction will impact the social fabric of the city by temporarily reducing local
accessibility to public spaces and institutions and by creating a series of construction impacts such as
noise and vibration, dust, construction traffic and visual intrusions to the public realm.
The tunnel alignment is a critical social spine for the city connecting St Kilda Road parklands and the
arts precinct, to Federation Square, major civic buildings like St Paul’s Cathedral, Melbourne Town
Hall, State Library, RMIT and the University of Melbourne
However, mitigated by adequate communication and construction techniques, this is regarded as a
moderate impact and, given it is temporary, it is far outweighed by the permanent, long-term
enhancements to the city’s human capital.
12.2
Human capital benefits
Improvements to the stock of human capital will not only flow into improved productivity, as discussed
in the economic assessment section. Human capital benefits accrue to households from improved
accessibility, as distinct from firms gaining a wider economic (agglomeration) benefit through locating
themselves in areas with high levels of accessibility.
Other non-market impacts can be anticipated, such as decreased crime and improved health. These
latter effects undoubtedly represent an increase in welfare. However, quantification of these benefits
has not been undertaken for this project.
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Improved accessibility to jobs made possible by MM is expected to lift the stock of human capital in
62
the metropolitan area $1,400 million (NPV) .
When the job redistribution impacts of the MM have fully worked through the Melbourne economy, the
northern, western and south-eastern regions will, again, see the greatest proportional increase in
human capital (Figure 12-1). In 2031, relatively disadvantaged areas such as Maribyrnong, Melton
Wyndham and Dandenong all benefit significantly due to the construction of MM. The distribution of
the human capital uplift is important when one considers the relative socio-economic disadvantage
experienced by these areas of Melbourne (Figure 12-2).
Figure 12-1: Spatial distribution of human capital impacts of MM (2031)
62
SGS, November 2010
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Figure 12-2: Most disadvantaged SEIFA quintiles (Melbourne, 2006)
Land use change also has a number of other social benefits which are not yet able to be quantified.
These benefits are based on the outcomes which MM is likely to generate. The key benefits are
discussed below.
12.2.1
Increased choice and accessibility
MM will provide those living in Melbourne’s west, north and inner areas with more frequent train
services to existing and some new locations. The ability to get to new locations will increase the
breadth of choices available to patrons, whilst increased frequencies will make accessing existing
locations easier. This will effectively broaden the choices available to people regarding where they
can go to access services such as health and community services, retail, commercial and recreation
facilities.
By providing better accessibility to key regional activities such as Sunshine Hospital and Victoria
University campuses in Footscray and St Albans, the ability of those living in Melbourne’s west and
north to access important regional facilities will be improved.
Together with supportive policy and other interventions, MM has potential to support the development
of clusters of specialised medical/education precincts. Specific interventions to facilitate this will be
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Business Case
identified in more detailed planning work. The development of such precincts will further enhance
choice, but is also likely to result in increased productivity/agglomeration and specialisations.
MM provides some key opportunities to facilitate increased dwelling development in Melbourne’s
established area. Increased service levels provided through MM will have direct links with the scale of
dwelling activity supportable in some locations, and the additional dwelling development will provide
increased choice of dwelling for those living in the city, as well as dwellings with greater diversity of
activities nearby.
12.2.2
Retail and activity centre development
The availability of public transport can support higher density residential development in and around
activity centres. In turn, the greater residential population supports the provision of increased retail
facilities over time. Similarly, public transport provides support for employment opportunities in
activity centres, including in retail and service businesses, but also creating the potential for medium
or larger scale office development in suitable locations.
A range of other supporting facilities are often included within or close to the activity centres, including
health, education, community and civic uses, leisure, sporting and entertainment. The mixed use and
multi-purpose nature of development within activity centres helps to create a critical mass of usage
and activity, which in turn supports retail demand and therefore an increased range of retail facilities.
A more direct retail opportunity is created from the passenger traffic around train stations. If
passenger volumes are sufficient, a certain amount of convenience and service retail can be
supported, with uses such as cafes, convenience stores and small groceries, dry cleaning, shoe
repairs and the like. These types of retail businesses can generate direct spending from the rail
passenger traffic, while also benefiting from the exposure and identity created by the location.
The extent of benefits would clearly depend on the size of the station, passenger volumes and the
physical layout of the station in relation to adjoining properties with retail potential. These benefits are
not included in the economic analysis.
12.2.3
Dwelling development in established areas
The benefits associated with dwelling development in established areas (urban consolidation benefits)
have been included in the MM economic analysis, specifically in regard to the Arden redevelopment
precinct.
There are locations other than Arden where dwelling development is likely to occur that have not been
quantified in the economic analysis. These benefits fall into two major categories:
Key development sites identified as having capacity to support precinct-wide dwelling activity
within a defined area. The exact scale and nature of this will need to be identified through a more
detailed precinct planning process, but there is potential of 10,000 dwellings supportable in these
areas.
Analysis indicates that there are opportunities for city shaping outcomes associated with MM. It is
estimated that there is land capacity to accommodate approximately 4500 dwellings in West
Footscray, 3500 dwellings in Sunshine/Albion and 1700 dwellings in Moonee Ponds/Essendon.
This is equivalent to approximately 500 hectares of growth area development. Combined with the
Arden precinct redevelopment and E-Gate, a pipeline of supply of urban renewal locations in
Melbourne emerges. Such sites will play an increasingly important role in the provision of housing
and urban activities as Melbourne grows to five million and beyond.
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Incremental and infill development – recent work by DPCD has identified that the density of
residential development is influenced by the connectivity, context and characteristics of the site.
This means that a higher density of development is likely to be available in areas around stations
where service levels improve. Secondly, where high density dwelling development is proposed,
further capacity for dwelling development in surrounding areas will result. Higher public transport
accessibility levels will therefore result in higher density development and additional dwellings in
established areas.
The scale of the above impacts could be quite significant, with improvements to accessibility and
choice generally and more people in established areas in accessible locations. These changes
combined will help transform the structure of the city over time.
12.3
Other social benefits
The improved choice enabled by MM (including Arden) may flow through to other social benefits. For
instance:
Access to goods and services is important in promoting both personal wellbeing and societal
welfare. Retail opportunities for example, impact on the price and quality of food available to
63
households. SEU (2003) draws attention to the importance of government intervention to enable
access to healthy affordable food because of the link between poor diet and future health
problems.
Limited access to education providers, including child care, schools, higher education institutions
and adult learning centres, can prevent people from participating in learning or restrict their choice
of the quality, subject matter or type of learning they attend. Improved accessibility is therefore an
integral part of the drive to increase participation and achievement in education (SEU 2003).
Similarly limited access to health care providers can impose significant costs on patients; poorer
health through missed appointments, late diagnosis or healthcare simply not being sought; and on
providers; wasted resources through missed appointments, delayed discharge from hospital,
unnecessary home visits and delayed treatment of illness in place of early intervention (SEU
2003).
Improved accessibility may provide increased opportunities for sport, the uptake of hobbies, and
entertainment. The construction of new recreation facilities or formation of new groups and
networks may be more viable due to the increased size of the market driven by greater
accessibility. To the extent that these opportunities are taken up, the SEU (2003, p16) reports,
“participation in social cultural and leisure activities is very important to people’s quality of life and
can play a major part in meeting policy goals like improving health, reducing crime and building
cohesive communities”.
12.4
Specific urban development benefits
The opportunities for urban development along MM corridors (except for the tunnel section which was
discussed earlier) have been identified through an initial review of existing urban development
conditions in the area. This process included a review of existing activity centres/locations, relevant
planning policies and controls, as well as estimates of capacity to accommodate additional
63
Making the connections: Final report on transport and social exclusion London, UK, Cabinet Office, SEU (Social Exclusion
Unit) 2003
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development. Existing land use structure including connectivity and site opportunities were also used
in evaluating the scale and nature of the opportunity. Such opportunities lead to more intense and
higher amenity urban development, which leads to more activity, better and more liveable places, less
crime and better health.
This initial review of development opportunities (and subsequent benefits) identified potential benefits
at a high level – further review and analysis will provide additional detail regarding the exact scale of
opportunity. The benefits of this development and the interventions and costs (if any) required to
facilitate these opportunities are not explicitly included in this business case, but will be pursued in a
way complementary to the project by DPCD.
The non-quantified social urban development benefits of MM in specific locations are in Table 12-1
below. The process of identifying these locations included a review of existing activity
centres/locations, relevant planning policies and controls, as well as estimates of capacity to
accommodate additional development. Existing land use structure, including connectivity and site
opportunities, were also used in evaluating the scale and nature of the opportunity.
Table 12-1: Location specific urban development benefits
Outcome
Regional mixed use centres:
Locations where there are
opportunities to develop major
regional mixed use centres,
and potential for a different
type of development to that
which exists in the location
currently
Activity centre intensification:
Additional retail, commercial,
community and housing
activity can be supported in
existing activity centres
Major change areas:
Opportunity for significant land
use change related to MM
Areas currently under planning
consideration: Areas for which
planning is currently occurring
or will be undertaken in the
future. Includes Precinct
Structure Plans and other
mechanisms. Such planning
should consider improved
service levels
Relevant locations
Broadmeadows
Footscray
St Albans/Ginifer
Sunshine/Albion
Social benefit
Increased choice regarding locations
to access education, health, retail,
community facilities, etc
Better access to major regional
activities such as hospitals, university
campuses, etc
Improved overall the scale and scope
of services provided in the area
Coburg
Moonee Ponds/Essendon
Sydenham/Watergardens
Hoppers Crossing/Werribee
Increased retail development in policy
supported locations; less pressure on
out of centre development
More choice for those visiting activity
centre
Avoided infrastructure/land savings
on the fringe
West Footscray/Brooklyn
Putting people in locations with
choice about travel mode and
accessing goods, services and jobs:
better choice and accessibility
Laverton/Aircraft/Williams Landing
Hopkins
Road/Rockbank/Toolern/Melton
South
As above – activity centre
intensification, incremental & infill
development
Werribee Employment Precinct
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Relevant locations
Social benefit
Batman/Merlyston/Fawkner/
Gowrie/Upfield
Infill/incremental change:
Areas where service levels are
high and likely to have an
impact on rate/density of
surrounding areas
Also includes areas where
industrial land could be turned
over to residential/mixed use
Royal Park/Flemington Bridge
Avoided infrastructure/land savings
on the fringe
Jacana/Glenroy/Oak Park/Pascoe
Vale/Strathmore/Glenebervie
Putting people in locations with
choice about travel mode and
accessing goods, services and jobs:
better choice and accessibility
Ascot Vale/Newmarket/Kensington
Sunbury/Diggers Rest
Ardeer/Deer Park
Seddon/Yarraville/Spotswood/
Newport
Craigieburn/Roxburgh Park
Sydenham/Watergardens
Increased accessibility across
region: Locations that can act
as regional interchange hubs
and opportunities to enhance
benefit of MM by linking it with
nearby activities to create
more complex precincts/areas
Essendon/North Essendon
Upfield line – Sydney Road/Lygon
Street/Nicholson Street
Improve regional accessibility and
improved opportunities to switch
between modes
Link St Albans and Ginifer
Link Sunshine and Albion
Sunshine to Altona/Williamstown and
Flemington/Royal Park
Maribyrnong Defence Site to Moonee
Ponds & Footscray
12.4.1
Basis for further access enhancements
Whilst providing significant benefits in its own right, MM also provides a robust platform to create
further interconnections and human capital benefit within the inner west and north. As transit
networks develop, the overall network effect provides an ability to make complex journeys which is
greater than the sum of the individual routes. MM will make an important contribution to the
development of the transit network in the historically under-developed inner west and north of
Melbourne.
The following links are considered to be key opportunities to further understand, plan for and facilitate
increasingly complex and linked activity networks:
Sunshine, West Footscray/Tottenham to Altona and Williamstown: The red orbital bus route
currently provides the single public transport option for this trip. The convoluted route through the
middle of the Brooklyn Industrial Area could be improved and this would provide residents of
suburbs south of the Westgate Freeway with access to the shopping and entertainment facilities
of Sunshine.
Maribyrnong Defence Site to Moonee Ponds/Essendon and the Brunswick/Lygon Street
Shopping Precinct: The former Defence Site in Maribyrnong, located adjacent to the northern
boundary of the Highpoint Activity Centre represents one of the largest and most realistic future
development sites within the study area (planned to contain at least 3000 dwellings and
commercial office development). A strong and prioritised east–west public transport option
connecting this site with the Brunswick/Lygon Street shopping precinct would considerably
enhance the urban experience for those living in this community of the future.
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Sunshine, West Footscray/Tottenham and Footscray to Flemington Racecourse: The
Maribyrnong River acts as somewhat of a barrier to accessibility to Flemington Racecourse for
populations in the west. Access to this major entertainment facility by public transport from the
west requires an interchange at North Melbourne to a rail service directly serving the racecourse.
Such a significant entertainment facility should be more accessible from the west, and a more
desirable link should be found.
There are also existing and emerging nodes of activity for which linkage into the most complex ‘inner’
zone of activity would further enrich urban experiences and enhance perceptions of
interconnectedness and relatedness across this part of the inner city. They include:
Sunshine/Albion to Ginifer/St Albans: Major health and tertiary education facilities at Ginifer
(Sunshine Hospital) and St Albans (VUT campus) respectively constitute significant catalysts for
further development and redevelopment along the spine connected by St Albans Road. Linking
these key nodes through a coordinated approach to the development of a number of potential
sites located along St Albans Road has the potential to create a contiguous urban corridor and
enrich the range of activities and interactions available for populations located along it.
Moonee Ponds/Essendon/Essendon North: The corridor linking Moonee Ponds, Essendon and
North Essendon presents significant opportunities for urban redevelopment, in the form of
dwellings, retail, commercial and community activities. In particular, Moonee Ponds is an
established activity centre with a strong and high amenity main street environment with a diversity
of existing retail and commercial activity. It exhibits some key preconditions for further investment
and employment growth. The linking of these nodes, and connecting them to the wider network of
activity within the inner north and west (such as Maribyrnong Defence site, Highpoint Shopping
Centre, Sunshine and Footscray) will provide a strong foundation for a mature urban context to
develop. This would support the significant growth forecast to occur in Melbourne's west and
north.
12.5
Social impacts of tunnel construction
The social impact of tunnel construction has been identified as a major impact that can be mitigated to
a moderate impact.
Social impacts of the MM project will occur along the entire tunnel alignment during construction. The
Swanston Street/St Kilda Road alignment is not only a transport spine for Melbourne but also a critical
social spine connecting St Kilda Road parklands and the arts precinct to Federation Square, major
civic buildings like St Paul’s Cathedral, Melbourne Town Hall, State Library, RMIT and the University
of Melbourne.
The project’s construction will impact the social fabric of the city by temporarily reducing local
accessibility to public spaces and institutions. It will also create a series of construction impacts such
as noise and vibration, dust, construction traffic and visual intrusions to the public realm.
The project’s main management technique for this issue will be to adequately communicate the longterm benefits of the project to gain acceptance of inevitable short-term impacts. However, as
identified in other environmental impact areas in Section 11, mitigation measures for accessibility,
noise and vibration and other impacts will also help to reduce the social impacts of the project.
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PART D – DELIVERY ARRANGEMENTS
13
Stakeholder engagement
13.1
Stakeholder engagement strategy
The MM project team is undertaking a multi-phase engagement program structured around the overall
project program. This will allow the project to include stakeholder considerations at key phases of
project development and implementation.
The engagement program aims to raise awareness of the project and seek input from key
stakeholders at key points of the projects development. The project has had strong community
support since its announcement in March 2008 as part of EWLNA.
Formal and informal feedback following the release of EWLNA showed strong community support for
investment in a large rail project:
90% community support through the formal submission process
93.1% support through the market research process
Through effective engagement with key stakeholders at key stages of the project the engagement
program aims to raise community awareness and continue this strong level of community support.
A more detailed outline of the specific stakeholder engagement activities is available in the
‘Melbourne Metro Communications and Stakeholder Relations Plan’.
Phase 1 – Development Phase (Options Evaluation) October 2009 – April 2010
>
Stakeholder engagement revolved around raising awareness of the project and its key
benefits.
>
The key question asked was “What are your requirements and questions about MM, such as
around service, station locations, and station design?
Phase 2 – Preferred Option Phase (Option Refinement / Concept Development)
May 2010 – September 2010
>
Following the identification of the preferred option, the MM rail tunnel team provided
stakeholders with the opportunity to learn more about that option and why it was chosen.
>
The project also sought feedback from stakeholders on the preferred option to ensure there
are no fundamental issues that prevent in-principal support.
>
The key question asked will be “What do you think of the preferred option?”
A full summary of the results of the feedback received on the preferred option is provided below.
Phase 3 – Public Comment Phase (Supporting the Statutory Approvals Process), Late 2011 –
Late 2013
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The MM Project proposes a targeted strategic approach to communications and stakeholder
engagement throughout the approvals process. The process will seek to inform as well as involve
affected stakeholders in the statutory approvals process. The overarching goals are to:
>
Support the DPCD-lead engagement as per statutory requirements;
>
Ensure the Comprehensive Impact Statement takes into account community inputs, issues
and ideas;
>
Ensure impacted stakeholders are informed about the project and are provided with
appropriate opportunities to provide feedback about the project scope and construction
approach for the project’s consideration;
>
Maintain a high level of community support for the MM Project during the planning approval
process;
>
Maintain support and advocacy for the project from key project stakeholders;
>
Generate community awareness about the MM Project benefits and outcomes, the proposed
route, the proposed construction approach, the status of the project, the CIS process; and
>
Minimise fear and unproductive public debate about the MM Project.
13.2
Stakeholder framework
The communications and stakeholder relations plan involves active engagement with the key
stakeholders identified in the stakeholder framework.
Table 13-1 below lists MM stakeholders – engagement activities to date and issues raised. The
proposed ongoing engagement activities aligned with each are included in Appendix 2. The
framework does not include technical stakeholder relationships (approval agencies, utilities, water
authorities).
The stakeholder framework will be updated as the project progresses.
Table 13-1: MM stakeholders
DECISION MAKERS
Cabinet/Expenditure Review Committee
Commonwealth Department of Infrastructure and Transport (DOIT) and Minister for Infrastructure and Transport
Department of Premier and Cabinet
Department of Treasury and Finance
Infrastructure Australia (IA), Chair and Members
Minister for Public Transport
Statutory approvals process decision-makers
• Victorian Minister for Planning
• Department of Planning and Community Development (Environmental Assessment)
• Commonwealth Environment Minister
• Department of Sustainability, Water, Environment, Population and Community
• Normal applicable law decision makers ie. EPA, VicRoads, Heritage Victoria etc.
• Aboriginal Affairs Victoria
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PROJECT PARTNERS
Department of Planning and Community Development (State Planning and Strategy)
Operational Project Partners:
Bus Operators/Bus Association Victoria
Metro Trains Melbourne
V/Line
VicRoads
VicTrack
Yarra Trams
KEY LOCAL GOVERNMENT STAKEHOLDERS
Municipal Association of Victoria
Victorian Local Governance Association
Metropolitan Transport Forum
Melbourne City Council
Port Phillip City Council
City of Stonnington
Councils benefiting through additional or better rail services and impacted by works
Those above plus Cities of Bayside, Maribyrnong, Moonee Valley, Brimbank, Moreland, Hume, Wyndham and
Hobsons Bay
Councils benefiting through additional or better rail services
Cities of Monash, Kingston, Frankston, Glen Eira, Greater Dandenong, Cardinia and Casey
KEY NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANISATIONS (NGO) AND TRANSPORT ADVOCACY STAKEHOLDERS
Australasian Centre for the Governance and
Management of Urban Transport (GAMUT)
RMIT University
Committee for Economic Development of Australia
University of Melbourne
Committee for Melbourne
Victoria Council of Social Services (VCOSS)
Metropolitan Transport Forum
Victoria University
Monash University
Victorian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and
Industry (VECCI)
Protectors of Public Land Victoria
Royal Automobile Club of Victoria (RACV)
Public Transport Users Association (PTUA)
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DIRECTLY OR POTENTIALLY IMPACTED STAKEHOLDERS
Various private property owners/local residents/local
businesses and traders
Northern Biomedical Precinct – Parkville Precinct
Biomedical Institutes
Property developers
Austin Biomedical Alliance
Resident/Lobby Groups (if impacted)
Centre for Adolescent Sexual Health
Flemington Association
Howard Florey
Kensington Association, Inc
Laboratories on Royal Parade
North & West Melbourne Association
Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research [Royal
Melbourne]
Parkville Association
Protectors of Public Lands Victoria Inc
Royal Park Protection Group
South Melbourne Business Association
The 3068 Group
Environmental groups
Heritage Victoria
Rail passengers (V/Line, metropolitan or interstate
operators)
Media
Melbourne University – Royal Melbourne,
Neurosurgery on Royal Parade
Murdoch Children's Research Institute
Walter and Eliza Hall
Southern Biomedical Precinct
Melbourne Clinic Albert Road/Domain Intersection
Universities on or near the route
Melbourne University – particularly schools along
Grattan Street
Monash University and Victoria University
Motorists
On the route or near neighbours
Shrine Trustees
St Paul’s Cathedral
Federation Square
National Gallery of Victoria
Arts Centre
Major hospitals on the route
Alfred Hospital
Dental Hospital [now on Swanston St]
RMIT University
Schools on or near the route
MacRobertsons Girls High
MCEGGS
Melbourne Grammar School
Royal Victorian Institute for the Blind
University High
Victorian School for the Deaf
Wesley College
Royal Children’s Hospital
Royal Melbourne Hospital
Royal Women’s Hospital
Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre (under
construction)
13.3
Stakeholder consultation results
To date, the vast majority of stakeholder feedback has been very positive. There is considerable
support for the project, as well as buy-in to the stakeholder engagement strategy.
13.3.1
Phase 1 – Options evaluation consultation results
As part of Phase 1, the project team extended invitations to a wide range of key stakeholder
organisations to organise initial listening tour meetings to outline project and consultation process and
begin asking the initial questions. These included:
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select key local government stakeholders (Melbourne City Council, Port Phillip City Council,
Maribyrnong City Council, Victorian Local Governance Association, Municipal Association of
Victoria, Metropolitan Transport Forum)
select key Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) and transport advocacy stakeholders
(Australasian Centre for the Governance and Management of Urban Transport (GAMUT),
Committee for Melbourne, Victorian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VECCI),
Royal Automobile Club of Victoria (RACV), Bus Association of Victoria, Institute for Sustainable
Transport, Monash University, University of Melbourne, RMIT University, Victoria University,
VCOSS)
select impacted/public stakeholders (Heritage Victoria, Shrine Trustees, residents associations).
Among the issues raised in stakeholder outreach meetings included:
interest in potential urban redevelopment options in West Melbourne and/or South Melbourne
significant interest in possible station locations, such as the Shrine of Remembrance Trustees’
interest in a possible Domain location and University of Melbourne’s interest in a Grattan Street
station
possible construction impacts
interconnectivity of the CBD stations with the existing rail network
project costs and timelines
how stakeholders can help support the project.
13.3.2
Phase 2 – preferred option consultation results
Phase 2 has provided the public and stakeholders with the opportunity to learn more about the
preferred option and why it was recommended. Communication effort sought feedback from
stakeholders to ensure there are no fundamental issues that prevent in-principle support and to
identify any new issues that should be addressed by the business case. The key question asked in
this phase is “do you agree with the preferred station locations?” The MM ‘Preferred Station
Locations’ was launched on 12 July 2010.
Preferred station location consultation survey results
An online, 10-part questionnaire enabled the public to provide direct feedback into the preferred
station locations and express their views regarding the project. A total of 564 people responded,
considered to be a good response. A summary of the results are graphed below in Figure 13-1 and
Table 13-2.
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Figure 13-1: Summary of support levels for MM
100%
93%
90%
80%
93%
89%
89%
90%
88%
CBD North
CBD South
Domain
Swanston St
Alignment
75%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Arden
Parkville
Overall
Project
Comments provided with the questionnaires were generally positive in line with overall support for the
project. Some common themes from respondents who did not support the project include:
cost and support for other projects as a priority
Arden Station – both questioning the need for the station and/or suggesting interconnection with
existing lines
need for a Southbank station.
To date no specific issues have been raised (in any sufficient numbers) that suggest any change to
the current direction of the project. The feedback does suggest a need to better communicate the
rationale for the Arden station.
Preferred station location – written submissions
As part of the Phase 2 consultation process, the project also sought written submissions from key
stakeholders. Ten written submissions were received from key stakeholders including City of
Melbourne, City of Port Phillip, Public Transport Users Association, Ventura (bus operator), Bus
Association of Victoria, Melbourne Transport Forum, and Kensington Residents Association.
Feedback received has shown a good general level of support for the project with stakeholders
identifying key areas of interest they would like to see addressed in the delivery of the project.
Table 13-2: Summary of Phase 2 Survey Results
Survey question
Result
Comments
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Survey question
Result
Comments
Do you support the
Melbourne Metro Rail
Tunnel project?
Yes – 93%
A total of only 7% either did not support the project or do
not know. Of those 7%, responses included:
Do you agree with the
preferred station
locations?
Yes – 73%
What do you think of the
preferred station
locations and tunnel
alignment?
Approximately 34% of
respondents (189
total) offered
additional feedback
regarding this
question.
Of these, the vast majority offered positive or neutral
feedback. Specific issues raised included:
Arden Station location?
Yes – 75%
Of the 14% that said No to Arden Station, the majority
indicated they preferred a location in North Melbourne
that would interconnect with the existing train lines. The
remainder suggested alternate locations in North
Melbourne or that Arden was not needed at all.
No – 4.5%
Other –2.5%
Vast majority cite cost and/or other priorities as the
main reason for their opposition.
A small number cite Arden Station as the main
reason for their opposition.
No – 17%
Other – 10%
No – 14%
Other – 11%
A very large percentage questioned the need for
and/or location of the Arden Station.
Other offered a range of alternate alignments, many
pointing to a possible Southbank station.
Many supported continuing with MM2 – many
(unsolicited) supporting a South Yarra
connection.
Those that offered negative feedback overwhelming
questioned either the overall need for the project
and/or the project’s perceived high costs.
Parkville Metro Station
location?
Yes – 93%
Other – 3%
Comments included suggestions regarding exit/entrance
locations, interchange opportunities with the tram
network, and whether there could be better
interconnection with Royal Children’s Hospital.
CDB North Metro Station
location?
Yes – 89%
Vast majority support the two proposed CBD locations,
most citing the need to adequately interconnect with the
existing system at Melbourne Central and Flinders Street
stations.
CBD South Metro Station
location?
Yes – 89%
Swanston Street
alignment?
Yes – 88%
No – 4%
No – 7%
Other – 4%
No – 7.5%
Other – 3.5%
No – 7.5%
Other – 4.5%
Vast majority support this location, citing the area’s
unique medical and education draw cards.
Other comments included a desire for a Bourke St
station, specifics on entrances/exits throughout the CBD,
different alignments through the CBD, and suggesting
different names for the CBD stations.
Vast majority support the Swanston Street alignment, as
it would best dissect the CBD and flow down St Kilda
Road while best interconnecting with the existing system.
Other comments included alternate suggestions for an
Elizabeth Street or William Street alignment.
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Survey question
Result
Comments
Domain Metro Station
location?
Yes – 90%
Vast majority support this location, citing the need for a
station along the St Kilda Road corridor to connect better
with the CBD and Parkville area and to alleviate
congestion along the tram corridor.
No – 6%
Other – 4%
Other comments include a concern for potential impacts
along the Shrine Reserve, the suggestion to move the
station further south along St Kilda Road, and
suggestions to continue the tunnel through to Caulfield.
Would you like to offer
any additional opinions
on the Melbourne Metro
Rail Tunnel project?
264 of 564
respondents offered
additional opinions –
Approximately 47% of
all respondents
The majority of respondents provided positive feedback,
many saying that the project should proceed as quickly
as possible, that it is long overdue, and that they support
early planning into its development.
Potential negative issues or questions raised in this area
echo very closely those mentioned above: location of
need for Arden Station, suggestion to build a Southbank
station, question need for project and/or high cost, and
that other transport priorities should come first.
To date, there are no definitive issues raised in this
interim report on the public survey that would significantly
affect the project’s progress.
13.4
13.4.1
Stakeholder consultation next steps
Phase 3 – public comment phase
Phase 3 will take the project through the planning approval process and has been designed to provide
the public with greater detail and the opportunity to comment on areas of the project including station
design as well as potential construction and operational impacts.
A key component of the public comment phase is the establishment of a Key Stakeholder Reference
Group comprising project partners and key local Councils. This group will provide advice to the project
team on planning and consultation matters and act as a conduit for project information to their own
organisation.
A Community Reference Group (CRG) will be established in early 2012 to gather community input
and to help ensure the project’s integration with the existing urban environment. A call for
nominations to the CRG will be made in early 2012.
Supporting these reference groups will be a range of activities designed to raise awareness of the
project and encourage public feedback on broader design elements. The project will be conducting
community information sessions, community displays as well as ongoing direct engagement with key
stakeholders and affected property owners during phase 3.
The result of this work will inform the design process and be incorporated into the submissions to the
Minister for Planning for consideration during the planning approval process.
Phase 3 is expected to continue to end 2013.
13.4.2
Communication and stakeholder relations activities into delivery
The project team will have ongoing discussions with key stakeholders and provide regular updates to
residents and businesses during the procurement phase (ie tender advertising and contract award).
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Extensive community engagement will also be required to give as much project delivery information
as possible to key stakeholders, including early updates on construction programs for any enabling
works and the process for dilapidation surveys.
A full-delivery communication strategy will be developed and implemented as part of the procurement
phase of the project, incorporating feedback gathered during all three phases of the stakeholder
engagement process during pre-construction.
13.5
Technical and operational stakeholders
A number of stakeholders have a core role in delivering the project into operation. These are outlined
below.
13.5.1
Metro Trains Melbourne (MTM)
MTM is currently the Accredited Rail Operator (ARO) under Part 5 of the Rail Safety Act (2006) for the
metropolitan rail network. MTM (or any subsequent franchisee) will be responsible for operating MM
and, as the ARO, is responsible for accepting the infrastructure on completion.
The risk that agreement is not reached with the ARO regarding detailed functional and operational
specification of the system has been rated as ‘high’. This is particularly important given the working
proposition that the project is delivered as a Public Private Partnership. If the specification is not
agreed with the ARO in the first instance, the ability to change the specification during delivery will be
very limited.
The program for engagement with MTM to date has been:
initial meetings held from the commencement of MTM’s franchise in November 2009, including
issuing an early version of the Concept of Operations (COO) for review
declaration of MM as a Proposed State Project under the Projects Agreement, requiring MTM to
participate in project development and for DOT to make payments in respect of their participation
participation of MTM in the market-sounding exercise, including input to the packaging and
procurement strategy
program of discipline-specific workshops focusing on the technical and operational concepts
review of technical concept and COO by MTM
management of change working group convened (refer Section 8.1.4)
letter from CEO of MTM advising their support for this business case.
The proposed program from completion of business case through to completion of specification and
tender documents is as follows:
development of a franchisee engagement and network integration strategy, as discussed in the
next section
substantial involvement in developing the specification for delivery
MTM input to the further development of the commercial model, including refining the operations
and maintenance aspects and safety responsibilities.
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Transport Safety Victoria (TSV)
TSV is responsible for accrediting and auditing AROs and, as such, is a key stakeholder in the
commissioning and operation of the project.
Early discussions with TSV have commenced and its involvement in the development of the
specification for delivery will be sought.
13.5.3
Emergency services
Emergency services agencies have a key role in accepting the project into operations. Review of and
input by the Metropolitan Fire Brigade to the requirements specification documents that form the basis
of the technical concept has had a particular emphasis on ensuring the fire and life safety principles
developed by the project are acceptable.
Preliminary engagement with emergency services has occurred through several workshops during a
fire and life safety review undertaken by an independent advisory. Engagement will continue through
the development of the specification for delivery.
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14
14.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Delivery strategy
Procurement strategy
64
This section summarises the investigation into procurement strategies for MM, including an analysis
of project packaging, delivery model assessment and market sounding of the proposed option.
14.1.1
Approach
The approach to the procurement strategy development is a bottom-up analysis based on unique
project characteristics, constraints, risks and value drivers.
The key findings were that the tunnels and stations should be packaged as one ‘core bundle’ and
delivered by a Public Private Partnership, with a design, build, maintain model retained as the
preferred traditional model (ie without private finance). Other works, including on the existing
Northern Group corridors, should be delivered by DOT using traditional delivery models.
This process draws on experiences from precedent procurements which inform and guide the
development of the strategy. The methodology is based upon Infrastructure Australia’s National
Public Private Partnership: Procurement Options Analysis guidance. The approach has been tailored
for the characteristics of MM and for DOT’s standard process that is applied across all projects.
Market sounding undertaken with 20 key industry market participants confirmed that this procurement
strategy is appropriate and that there is market appetite for the project. The approach is illustrated in
Figure 14-1.
Figure 14-1: Approach to developing the procurement strategy
Data gathering and procurement objectives
Extent of project packaging
Identification and classification of the range of project components
Packaging assessment
Bundled Project
Value Drivers
and
Constraints
Identify issues for further
consideration in feedback
loop and/or in detailed
procurement design:
• Total project size
• Station air rights, retail
and other commercial ops
strategy
• Extent of operations
and station interface (eg
boundary between MM1
and Franchisee)
Preferred packaging options
Delivery model
assessment
against
procurement
objectives
Preferred delivery
packages and models
64
Feedback
loop and
validation
Delivery model
assessment
Disaggregated Project
Data gathering
Assessment Steps
Step 1. Identification of
project and procurement
objectives, scope,
interfaces and risks
Step 2. Identification and
classification of the range
of project components
Step 3. Identification of
constraining factors and
value drivers
Step 4. Filtering of
packaging components
based on:
► Constraining factors
► Value drivers
Step 5. Assessment and
matching of delivery
models to preferred
packaging options
Step 6. Feedback loop and
validation: Market
sounding and case studies
Melbourne Metro 1 – Procurement Strategy Development, Ernst & Young, November 2010
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Business Case
Packaging
The recommended packaging approach is shown in Figure 14-2.
Figure 14-2: Recommended packaging approach
65
Procurement strategy
recommendation
Land Acquisition
Early Works (incl services diversions)
Northern Rail Group works (excl signalling)
DOT acquired
Case by case basis
TBD in separate delivery
model assessment
Civil works – tunnel, stations, portal, surf ace works
Station & tunnel f it out – mechanical, electrical and f ire
services; general station f it out
Track
Core Bundle 1
(Infra + M)
Systems
Maintenance
Signalling
MM1 Rolling stock
Depot and stabling
DOT Signalling Strategy
under development
Align with Next Generation
Train procurement strategy
Commercial development (including station airspace)
Delivered separately
Wider commercial opportunities (station retail, utilities)
Case by case basis
Service Delivery (including train operations)
Franchisee
Key assumptions of the proposed delivery model are outlined below. In all cases, these will be subject
to ongoing refinement and review.
Service delivery including train operations, ticketing, platform operations and passenger
communications should be separately procured and continue to be provided by the metropolitan
rail Franchisee. The impact on the wider network and the complexity and additional cost of
introducing a second franchise is expected to exceed the whole-of-life and integration benefits of
having a dedicated operator for Sunbury to Domain (and onwards to MM2). Exclusion of the
procurement of train operations from MM Project does not preclude the introduction of a second
Franchisee at a later date should the State wish to pursue this approach.
Land acquisition should be managed by the State.
Northern Group works should be procured separate from the core bundle. The works have a
strong interface with the existing network and thus have an inherently different risk profile to other
elements of the MM project. Once the scope of these works is further refined during detailed
project development, the delivery model(s) for these works can be determined and should
consider any lessons learnt from the Regional Rail Link project.
Enabling works including services diversions should be procured separately from those
service diversions which can be easily separated from the main works and which have significant
time constraints, bespoke risk profiles or interfaces. Service diversions that are independent of
the main works and on the critical path could be considered as an early works package. This
65
For rail systems (infrastructure delivery and maintenance), further analysis is recommended in the next phase of project
development to determine the preferred packaging approach and allocation of responsibilities between the Franchisee and the
core bundle recognising the close integration of rail systems with network operations.
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would be expected to reduce risk premiums associated with service relocation uncertainty if
completed prior to tendering of the core bundle.
Service diversions works which are integrated with the project structure should be packaged with
the core bundle.
Rolling stock, stabling and depot requirements for MM should be included in the High Capacity
Metro Trains Business Case. Bundling of the MM rolling stock requirements with the broader
network rolling stock requirements has potential to deliver synergies which are expected to
outweigh any potential synergies from bundling with MM rail infrastructure components.
Urban development opportunities at Arden should be delivered separately from the core
transport solution. Precinct-wide development involves a different set of capabilities to the core
transport project and there are limited and manageable interfaces between Arden Station and the
wider precinct.
Station airspace rights at Parkville, CBD and Domain stations should be separately delivered
from the core transport solution. The realisation of the potential value of the commercial
development when packaged with the core bundle is not expected to deliver value for money due
to the long lead time between financial close and placement of tenants, and uncertainty with
respect to planning requirements.
This conclusion is premised on the State’s ability to manage the interface between the station and
above station developments. During detailed design of the stations, the State will need to develop
its plan for the station airspace, including use, access and loading requirements, with a view to
tendering the airspace rights during or following completion of the stations.
Other commercial opportunities (such as station retail and utilities) should be considered on
a case by case basis to the extent that they strongly interface with other project components.
They are not considered to be a significant revenue source and should not drive the packaging
and delivery model decision.
Civil works, station fit out and track should be retained in a core bundle to minimise the
significant interfaces between project components and provide opportunities for innovation and
realisation of synergies. The core project components should be bundled to the extent that the
total project size is not compromised by market competition.
Signalling should be packaged separately from the core bundle due to the uncertainty
surrounding DOT’s HCSand the strong interface with rail components outside of MM including
interface with the broader network, rolling stock and rail operations. Once the State has clarified
the network signalling plan, choice of technology and its interface with MM, further analysis of the
preferred packaging for signalling should be undertaken.
Rail systems (including rail communications, traction power and high-voltage electrical supply)
have strong interfaces with the core bundle, rolling stock, signalling, rail operations and the
broader network. Rail systems could be separated from the core bundle, installed with the core
bundle and handed over to the Franchisee upon commissioning. Alternatively it could be installed
and maintained with the core bundle. More detailed technical assessment and risk allocation
analysis is required to determine the preferred packaging option.
Maintenance activities should be included within the core bundle to deliver whole-of-life benefits
and minimise interface risk between project components. The final scope of maintenance
responsibilities, operating responsibilities and the management of the interface with the
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Franchisee (including issues such as safety management and responsibilities) should be further
refined during the next project development phase. At this stage the proposed scope includes:
>
maintenance (but not operations) of the tunnel structure, ventilation systems and fire and life
safety systems
>
maintenance and facility operations of the stations including maintenance of station structure
and systems and ‘soft’ services such as cleaning and security (with the Franchisee to retain
responsibility for train operations including provision of passenger information data, ticketing
and crowd control).
The maintenance scope could also include some rail systems where there is a less significant
interface with train operations. Further analysis is recommended to determine the allocation of
responsibilities between the Franchisee and the core bundle in the next phase of project development
recognising the close integration of rail systems with network operations.
14.1.3
Core bundle – delivery method
It is recommended an output specification be developed for the procurement of the core bundle to
deliver whole-of-life benefits. The development of an output specification with well-defined
performance specifications is preferred to:
align with the State’s project objectives
deliver performance orientated outcomes
provide opportunities for contractor innovation across a range of price, time and quality outcomes.
It is provisionally recommended that a PPP delivery method be adopted for the core bundle.
Private financing using a PPP delivery model provides the State with strong risk transfer with regard
to completion (PPP has strong incentives for certainty of delivery and price), long-term performance
outcomes and maximises potential scope for innovation and whole-of-life benefits.
This recommendation is subject to further consideration of the potential for value for money to be
achieved in light of project risks, the scale of private funding required and the private cost of financing.
Full private financing may not deliver VfM as the financing premium may exceed the level of risk that
the State is seeking to transfer.
A PPP delivery model for the core bundle could incorporate government contributions or support to
maximise Value for Money (VfM). Partial private financing may deliver better VfM by realising the
benefits of private financing whilst mitigating potential private financing cost or capacity constraints
associated with the significant funding requirement for the project.
Further work to investigate funding options will be undertaken in the next phase of project
development. This will include a detailed risk identification and quantification process to assess
potential risk allocation under a Design Build Maintain (DBM) or PPP to understand whether a VfM
outcome is likely under a PPP model that incorporates part private financing.
DBM will be retained as the State’s preferred traditional (non-private financing based) delivery model,
and a fall-back option to PPP. The recommendation to include an output specification based whole-oflife model allows the State to proceed with the development of MM output requirements, without the
need to firmly commit to a procurement model.
Through the next phase of project development, a range of specialist input will need to be sought,
such as through the use of further peer review panels to test key concept design and constructability
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directions, and seek to maintain flexibility where possible in project parameters (such as the project
land reservation) to facilitate bidder innovation during procurement.
14.1.4
Next steps in procurement strategy
The proposed next steps in developing the procurement strategy are outlined below.
Risk identification and quantification: Further development of the risk analysis undertaken by
the project team to date, including:
>
review and extension of the risk register to capture risks across all aspects of the project
including commercial, financial, whole-of-life, design and construction
>
quantification of risk for inclusion in the Public Sector Comparator and to inform the
development of risk allocation and risk management strategies as part of the development of
commercial principles.
Governance: Consideration of different project governance and organisational structure models
based on the attributes of success for major infrastructure project delivery.
Procurement process and program sequencing design:
>
procurement process and program sequencing design including development of a
procurement timetable for each project package and for the overall project, identification of
interdependencies between project components, and development of an evaluation
framework and initial tendering documents (draft EOI)
>
continued market engagement and market building activities to ensure MM attracts a large
range of highly competent bidders.
Development of commercial principles: Development of key commercial principles for the
project under the Partnerships Victoria framework, including:
>
Further refinement of the scope of works and development of an output specification for
inclusion in each package of works. This analysis would include consideration of outcomes
from the risk identification and quantification process and risk allocation principles; further
technical development of the project; further development of DOT’s HCSstrategy and HCMT
project; and the development of network integration and interface strategies discussed below.
>
Development of a Franchisee engagement and network integration strategy. This strategy
would consider the role of the Franchisee across project development, delivery, and
operations, including allocation of maintenance, safety, testing and commissioning
responsibilities. The State should test potential failure scenarios, and who is best placed to
control and manage the risk of these events. Following this analysis, an informed packaging
decision from a commercial and VfM perspective can be made. The Franchisee strategy
would also consider the approach to engaging with the Franchisee across each project stage
and the development of commercial principles for the interaction between the State,
Franchisee and Contractor over the project term (eg through interface agreements).
>
Development of an interface management strategy to consider the approach to the delivery of
multiple packages of works.
>
Assessment of interrelationships with Arden redevelopment feasibility study to ensure that the
procurement strategies are complementary.
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>
Consideration of other key commercial principles such as the approach to commissioning,
completion, safety management, site access and conditions, and refurbishments.
>
Development of the payment mechanism and KPI regime which allows interface with the
existing Franchise incentive regimes (for example Operating Performance Regime (OPR) and
Customer Experience Performance Regime (CEPR)) and reflects the proposed risk
allocation.
>
Development of a reference design, functional brief/output specification and services
specification detailing whole-of-life requirements.
Project funding, value capture and financing strategy: Further development of the project
funding and private financing strategy, including:
>
Development of a Public Sector Comparator model to inform both project funding and
procurement model development. This work stream would build on the risk quantification
process and the further development of the reference design.
>
Analysis of potential outcomes under a PPP model including development of a proxy PPP
financial model. This process would assist in the assessment of the scope for achieving VfM
outcomes under a PPP model in light of project and systematic risks, the proposed risk
allocation and scope for innovation.
>
Consideration of potential PPP model structures including combining private financing with
Government contributions or support to maximise VfM and meet State and Federal
objectives. For example, this analysis could include considering a capital contribution in the
proxy PPP financial model.
>
Consideration of strategies to incorporate Federal and State funding of the project within the
procurement design.
>
Options for funding and value-capture for the MM project are being identified, assessed and
quantified. This includes over-station development, proceeds from uplift in state-owned land,
Tax Incremental Financing, rates levies, uplift in future public transport far receipts,
reallocation of the CBD parking charge, public transport ticket levy, further charges to
landowners based on uplift in property values and vehicle registration levies.
14.1.5
Arden procurement
It is likely that a combination of procurement models will be used in the Arden Precinct Urban
Renewal project. This may include traditional government investment in infrastructure, PPP,
development agreement or alliance. A more detailed options assessment regarding procurement and
delivery will be undertaken in the next stage of the project.
The roles considered at this stage to be most appropriately undertaken by government in this
‘brownfields‘ urban development include:
development of a high level masterplan, road network layout
public land acquisition, consolidation and cleanup
private land acquisition – the absolute minimum required to enable the public works required
direct funding of the public works, roads, open space
incorporating a suitable planning regime
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surplus land sales back to the private sector (perhaps a combination of development agreement
for larger sites and simple sales for smaller sites).
The delivery strategy will be developed for Arden as part of the next stage of investigations.
14.2
14.2.1
Planning approvals
Legislative options
In Victoria, there are two legislative options to guide the overall planning, social and environmental
assessment of major projects:
Major Transport Projects Facilitation Act (MTPFA), which requires a Comprehensive Impact
Statement (CIS)
Environmental Effects Act (EEA), which can require an Environmental Effects Statement (EES).
The two acts are summarised below.
Major Transport Projects Facilitation Act (MTPFA):
>
A new process designed to streamline the delivery of major transport projects by combining
planning powers and delivery powers under one Act in a similar way to project specific
legislation as used by CityLink and EastLink in the past.
>
Westlink (now known as East-West Link) is the first project to use the planning powers of the
MTPFA and is only part way through its assessment process.
>
Approvals under eleven separate pieces of legislation are brought together for a single
approval decision by the Minister for Planning.
>
Requires strict statutory time frames for the assessment of projects. In certain circumstances
this may lead to a longer approvals process than the EEA. In general the MTPFA will provide
a more certain timeline for an approval decision.
The Environmental Effects Act (EEA):
>
A long-standing process used for the majority of major projects in Victoria, including Channel
Deepening Project, the Victorian Desalination Plant and Peninsula Link.
>
Minister for Planning determines if an Environmental Effects Statement (EES) is required for a
project. If an EES is not required, in most cases a conditional assessment is granted with
specific environmental studies required to satisfy the EEA.
>
A decision under the EEA facilitates formal approval processes but is NOT an approval in
itself.
>
Further approvals such as Planning Scheme Amendments and Planning Permits, Heritage
Permits, Road Management Act approvals amongst others must be gained through their own
specific legislation once the Minster for Planning has completed the assessment under the
EEA.
>
The Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD) has informed DOT that an
EES is likely to be required for the MM project based on the likely construction impacts of the
project.
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A Comprehensive Impact Statement (CIS), which is of a similar scale and form to an EES, must be
completed under the MTPFA. There is no option to avoid this full assessment through a conditional
assessment under the MTPFA. DOT has had detailed discussions with the DPCD Environmental
Assessments team to determine the most appropriate option to achieve planning and environmental
approvals for the project. Table 14-1 provides a summary of the relative merits of each process for
various factors relevant in the approvals process.
Table 14-1: Comparative assessment of approvals options
Factor
MTPFA – CIS
EEA – EES
No statutory time limits imposed on key
decision points. Flexibility of timing can
lead to shorter process but worst case
is ‘unlimited’
Facilitates decision making under other
acts however the separate processes
and responsible decision makers must
provide individual approvals
-
Timeline
Statutory time limits at key
decision points leads to certainty
of timing
Integrated
Approval
Approvals under 11 Acts are
brought into a single integrated
approval decision by the Minister
for Planning
Further
Assessments
Cultural Heritage Management
Plans and Federal environmental
requirements are specifically
excluded
-
Federal environmental requirements are
accredited under the EEA. Cultural
Heritage Management Plans required
Property
Specific benefits for the Land
Acquisition process
No specific benefits for the Land
Acquisition process
Knowledge
of Process
WestLink is the first project to use
the planning powers. It is part way
through the process
Tested process used for many major
projects
Flexible and
Iterative
Process
The MTPFA provides for an
iterative review of the CIS
following public exhibition and prior
to the approval decision
Integration
with delivery
powers
Process benefits to using the
MTPFA planning and delivery
powers (eg designation of project
area)
Total
The EES provides for greater flexibility
in project definition and scope to be
assessed up to the public exhibition
period, but does not allow an iterative
review process
No ability to benefit from process
benefits of delivery powers/planning
powers under MTPFA
10
-
8
The most critical benefit of the MTPFA is the consolidation of approvals for a single integrated
decision made by the Minister for Planning. This integrated decision will help to avoid situations
where multiple decisions are required by multiple responsible Ministers or delegated officers under up
to 11 different pieces of legislation. This reduces the risk of ‘single issue’ processes delaying overall
project approval.
The MTPFA is considered to be more beneficial than the EEA in all but two factors in selecting the
preferred process – ‘knowledge of the process’ and ‘further assessments required’. These can be
mitigated through effective management of the approvals process.
DPCD has advised an EES is likely to be required if DOT were to refer the project under the EEA, due
to the range and scale of anticipated short term social and transport impacts associated with
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construction of the project. If an EES were not required, then it would be preferable to follow the EEA
process, as the MTPFA requires a CIS irrespective of impacts. Both a CIS and EES require a similar
level of work including specific investigations for key environmental risks, public exhibition periods and
a planning panel process.
Use of the EEA would lead to a very similar timeline and work program to the MTFPA, but as noted
above, creates additional risks. The Minister for Public Transport has been advised that the MTPFA is
the preferred project approvals strategy. Formal approval to adopt the MTPFA for the project will be
sought after the submission of the business case.
14.2.2
Proposed approvals process
The following assessment is based on the assumption that the MTPFA will be used for the project
approval. The MTPFA process is very deliberately set out under the Act to provide surety of timing
and process when applying for environmental approvals for major transport projects. This is detailed
in Figure 14-3 below.
The timeline for a ministerial decision under the MTPFA is consistent with the requirements of the
master project program. An approval decision in the first quarter of 2012 will facilitate, subject to
funding, land acquisition through 2012 and subsequently the commencement of construction during
2013. The MTPFA process requires a public consultation period and the publishing of detailed
information about the project in mid 2011.
As shown in Figure 14-3, the MTPFA requires that projects are declared prior to embarking on the
approvals process. As explained below, this means both MM and MM2 will be assessed (and
declared).
14.2.3
Scope of project to be approved
The design of MM at Domain is dependent on the future MM2 alignment. The MM2 option chosen
(the short or long tunnel) will determine the specific location and impacts of Domain station, including
land take. The approvals process for the MM project will therefore require extensive consultation on
the MM2 project. Given the extent of consultation required, a planning process for the full Melbourne
Metro project is likely to be the most appropriate pathway for approvals.
A single approval will be beneficial from a process and outcome perspective by allowing a simple
extension of the otherwise necessary MM2 consultation into an approval process which capitalises on
already completed work and reduces planning uncertainty for affected communities.
MM2 is part of the seven-stage rail capacity upgrade plan and is a critical part of the overall east-west
rail link, for which IA has allocated development funding. MM2 is included separately in IA’s pipeline
of projects. A Cabinet determination on the preferred approvals pathway is required in advance of
project declaration. Cabinet has not endorsed detailed consultation on MM2 at this stage.
In addition, Federal environmental approvals are likely to be required for some aspects of the project
under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBCA), which may require
an assessment of the full scheme (ie MM and MM2).
The environmental assessment process for the full scheme has commenced. It will assist in
preparation of the project proposal (for declaration), to be submitted to Cabinet in early 2011.
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Figure 14-3: MTPFA program and key decision points
Timing
Decision
Budget Implications
Nov 2011
Infrastructure Australia Submission
• Statement of intent regarding project
• Provide full supporting documentation
Nil
Feb 2012
Project Declaration under MTPF Act
• Premier recommends to Governor in Council
Nil
Feb 2012
Submission of EPBC Referral to Commonwealth Environment Minister
• Decision required under Commonwealth legislation
Nil
Mar 2012
Submission of Project Proposal to Minister for Planning
• Minister for Planning responds with Scoping Directions that guide DOT’s
assessment of impacts from the project
Nil
May 2012
State Budget
• Funding allocation for corridor protection
Nov 2012
$100m allowance sought
Submission of Comprehensive Impact Statement to Minister for Planning
• Exhibition period follows
CIS completion triggers $20m
payment from Cth (TBC)
HOLD
POINT
Can defer if corridor
protection funds not in budget
HOLD
POINT
Can defer if corridor
protection funds not in budget
Apr 2013
Submission of Revised CIS Following Consultation
• Panel hearing follows
Aug 2013
Approval Decision under MTPF Act by Minister for Planning
• Incorporation of the Reservation into the Planning Scheme
14.3
Planning process to support property acquisition
14.3.1
DOT subject to claims against
corridor protection funds
Processes for securing project land
In keeping with project approvals for MM, the project team proposes to use the delivery processes set
out in the MTPFA for securing the rights to land, be they freehold or leasehold interests, or reserved
or unreserved Crown land.
The MTPFA calls on the compulsory acquisition processes described in the Land Acquisition and
Compensation Act 1986 (LACA). The 281 freehold land titles (whether whole titles or strata) will be
secured in accordance with these processes. This entails reserving the land when the Minister for
Planning makes a project approval decision under the MTPFA. This reservation is likely to be
reflected in the planning scheme in a public acquisition overlay. The reservation of land enables the
project team to serve notices pertaining to compulsory acquisition of the title. Typically these
processes take some 12 months from reservation to possession of the land.
Similarly, MTPFA and LACA will enable the project to extinguish leasehold interests on freehold and
Crown land using the compulsory acquisition processes. Compensation will be paid to lessees taking
account of unexpired lease terms and the tenants’ intentions with respect to future occupancy.
The same legislation will also enable the project team to compulsorily lease freehold land for the
purposes of establishing construction sites for the approved project.
The delivery powers of the MTPFA provide a streamlined process for securing Crown land for
approved projects. This involves the Project Minister recommending to the Governor in Council (GIC)
that Crown land held by local and public authorities be surrendered. Agreement by the GIC results in
the land becoming unalienated Crown land freed and discharged from all trusts, limitations,
reservations, restrictions, encumbrances, estates and interests and temporarily reserved for the
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purposes of the approved project. These powers also include revocation of any existing Committees
of Management so far as they apply to the land concerned.
As part of the project delivery, there will need to be a number of road closures (both temporary and
permanent) and other possible property access requirements. Powers exist within Division 8 of the
MTPFA to facilitate road closures. The extent and details of road closures will not be known until
more work on detailed design and construction methodology has occurred.
Although road closures will be brought into effect by project managers at the appropriate times, there
will be a property interest with respect to possible compensation claims arising from this.
14.3.2
Assessment of Crown land
All parcels of Crown land on the current alignments for MM (including stabling) have been identified
by the Crown land Registry office within the Department of Sustainability & Environment (DSE). A
preliminary assessment of these parcels has been undertaken by the Public Land Services section of
DSE in accordance with the future act regime of the Native Title Act 1993 to identify any significant
issues which may arise if these parcels were to be used as part of MM.
The project team has been advised that Native Title has been extinguished in relation to all of the
parcels identified and there are no areas where Native Title procedural rights would apply.
DSE has noted that a final Crown land assessment should be undertaken once project design and
alignments have been finalised and it is known whether the State has entered into any framework
agreement with traditional owners prior to undertaking projects.
14.4
14.4.1
Pre-construction phase schedule
Overview
The resources and timelines to take the MM project from business case to construction
commencement have been developed using both a top-down and bottom-up approach. Figure 14-4
presents an indicative timeline from 2011 to construction commencement in July 2015.
These timelines and resource estimates for market engagement are to be further developed during
the detailed project development phase in order to present a more precise forecast to inform a
decision on implementing the project in mid 2013.
14.4.2
Key assumptions
The following assumptions have been made in establishing the detailed project development phase
schedule:
a conventional procurement approach (Register of Interest, Expressions of Interest, Request for
Tender) with full funding commitment made by Government(s) in May 2013
PPP delivery of the core infrastructure – twin tunnels and stations
surface works delivered via a number of separate suppliers utilising traditional methods
rolling stock and signalling components separately delivered, but with strong interaction and
coordination by the MM project
a strong and competitive supplier market with necessary financial support.
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Figure 14-4: Indicative program for detailed development and market engagement
Key tasks
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Conduct Investigations
Develop Technical Specifications
& Reference Design
Prepare Community Impact
Statement Process
Undertake Land Acquisition
Process
Issue ROI
Conduct Market Soundings
Develop Commercial Solution &
Finalise Contract Design
Prepare EOI
Issue EOI
Prepare response to EOI
Select Shortlist
Prepare RFT
Issue RFT
Submit Bid
Select Preferred Bidder
Execute Contract with Preferred
Bidder
Achieve Financial Close
Commence Construction
Legend: Dotted line represents tasks in the higher end estimate that have different timing to the minimum estimate
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14.5
14.5.1
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Construction schedule
Overview
The construction methodology and program for the delivery of the MM project has been investigated.
The schedule assumes the tunnels and stations are delivered as a single large package by a single
proponent. To achieve the program it is assumed that a significant amount of preparatory work will be
undertaken by DOT. This work relates to the preparation of a robust reference design for the
tendering process. While preparing the reference design it is assumed that DOT will initiate and
progress discussions with relevant stakeholders to streamline the process for the future proponent.
The program also assumes that the majority of the utilities diversion and protections works will be
carried out as preparatory works prior to the award of the main construction contracts. Significant
opportunities exist to expedite the works, particularly by progressing service relocation design and
undertaking the physical works.
The program assumes four concurrent workstreams, utilising differing construction methods and are a
logical way to separate the works:
Western Section: TBM tunnels, cut and cover structures from western portal to CBD North;
CBD Section: Cut and cover tunnels and stations along Swanston Street to CBD South, mined
tunnels to Yarra River north bank;
Yarra River crossing: Immersed tube tunnel or coffer dam construction; and
Eastern Section: TBM tunnels and cut and cover structures from Yarra River south bank to
eastern portal.
The critical path for the program is summarised below:
initial design and project documentation
TBM launch shaft design approvals and TBM procurement
construction and fitout of the Western Section tunnels
commissioning of the system wide operational systems
overall system testing and commissioning
trial running of rolling stock on the new network
commencement of operation.
The tunnelling works are assumed to be undertaken from two locations: Western Section tunnel
drives would be launched and operated from the Arden Station site, first to CBD North Station before
retrieval and a second drive to the western portal. The Eastern section tunnel drive would be
launched from a worksite on the south bank of the Yarra River, at Alexandra Avenue. Two tunnel
boring machines (TBMs) will operate from each tunnelling portal (total of four TBMs). The program
has been developed based on the principle that the stations are progressed sufficiently to allow the
TBMs to ‘walk’ through with the primary support of the stations complete. The Western Tunnel works
are on the critical path due the lengthy procurement period for the TBMs and need to retrieve and
recommence a second drive from Arden to the Western Portal. Construction of the CBD North and
CBD South stations is near- critical.
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The construction of all stations is assumed to commence as soon as possible after contract award. A
period of nine months has been allowed for design, interface with stakeholders and gaining necessary
approvals before the permanent works commence.
The works on the wider network are assumed not to be critical and will be undertaken as necessary to
suit the overall project program.
A time chainage diagram is shown in Figure 14-5. It presents the proposed construction program
based on these workstreams and indicates a construction timeframe of 5 ½ years from Contract
Award.
14.5.2
Key assumptions
The following assumptions have been made in establishing the preliminary MM program:
a decision on whether the project is to proceed is made in mid 2013 and construction starts in
July 2015
the procurement of the project is done in a way that splits the scope of the project geographically,
with the wider network being done as separate contracts to the underground section
the procurement of the rolling stock (including associated stabling yards, power and overhead
upgrades) is not part of the MM scope, however it will be a key interface
all necessary statutory and environmental planning project approvals will be in place at contract
award
all necessary property acquisitions have been made prior to contract award to avoid extending
construction during and to minimise risk of delay
a railway systems provider/designer is contracted in time to provide the necessary input into the
civil design
Surface: 12-hour working, six days a week; Underground: 24-hour working, seven days a week,
with sound attenuation enclosures in place
experienced, competent designers and constructors are assumed to be engaged for the
construction phase
the Arden site will be large enough to provide all the necessary area for workshops, fabrication
yards, laydown and storage areas
adequate resources are available for all stations to be constructed in parallel and at the required
production rates
tunnelling rate is assumed to be 300 metres a month for both types of TBM under consideration,
ie slurry and earth pressure balance (EPB)
the TBMs constructing the tunnels will have a delivery time of 15 months and an assembly period
of three months
the design and construction of the stations will be such that the TBMs will be able to traverse the
stations when they arrive at them with minimal delays (that is, the TBMs will be slid through the
stations rather than excavate through them)
the testing and commissioning of the rolling stock to be used on the MM project will largely be
done on other tracks to reduce the testing and commissioning time required after construction
completion of underground section
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Figure 14-5: Preliminary time-chainage chart
Melbourne Metro High Alignment: Cut & Cover Tunnel Thru CBD
Arden Station
TBM Launch
West
Portal
`
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Parkville
Station
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
CBD South River Crossing
Station
TBM Launch
CBD North
Station
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
East
Portal
Domain
Station
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
10.0 10.5
Month
TBM
Relocation
Track & Rail Systems Installation
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Early Works
Walk TBM Thru
Station
TBM Assembly
River Crossing
Design
TBM Excavation
Piling, Roof &
Reinstate Surface
Station/Decline
Structure Construction
E&M, BS & Fitout
Roadheader
Excavation
Cross Passage
Y6
Y6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
TBM Shaft
Y5
Y5
SYSTEMWIDE COMMISSIONING & TRIAL RUNNING
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mobilisation
Y4
Y4
Legend :
Y3
Y3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
TBM Manufacture and Delivery :18 months
Assembly & T&C : 3 months = 21 Months
Design Approval
Swanston St
Tram Diversions,
Canopy & Tree
Removal
Station
Briding Under Fed Sq Rail Lines
Contract Award
Y2
Y2
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9.5
Y1
Y1
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
TBM Manufacture and Delivery :18 months
Assembly & T&C : 3 months = 21 Months
Month
Track & Rail Systems
Installation
Commissioning & Trial
Running
Melbourne Metro
15 Project governance
15.1
15.1.1
Overall governance
Governance options
Governance arrangements for the project will evolve over the project’s life. At each stage of the
procurement lifecycle, appropriate governance will be needed to ensure the overall success of the
project. Furthermore, given the scale of the project, governance of the project will ultimately be
determined by the sponsoring Government(s).
Importantly, the governance provided during these early stages of the project should facilitate a
smooth transition to the ultimate delivery structure. At this stage no decisions have been made on the
appropriate delivery structure nor are they required at this relatively early stage of the project life. The
project’s delivery method (including resolution of risks to be retained and managed by the State)
should also be confirmed before the governance structure for delivery is established.
A decision to proceed with implementation of MM does not need to be made until completion of the
detailed project development. In absence of a decision to proceed it is recommended that project
development continue to be the responsibility of DOT. It is also recommended that any decision to
proceed with the project incorporate directions on the governance model to be adopted.
For the purposes of this business case and in the interests of ongoing discussion, three potential
governance models for project delivery have been considered:
Existing DOT structures – under current procedures, major public transport projects are
developed by the Public Transport Division (PTD) and then handed over for delivery to the
Transport Projects Division (TPD).
Establish a new DOT division – given the scale of this project a standalone division or agency
under the auspices of DOT could be created (with or without a Project Board) as was initially the
case for the RRL project (now a separate administrative authority).
Establish a new statutory delivery authority – the scale of this project may warrant a specificpurpose statutory authority similar to that created for the Spencer Street Redevelopment, CityLink
and EastLink projects.
Considering the scale of the core project works (ie tunnel and stations) and
minimal interaction with the existing rail network, it is feasible to consider a
charged with the design, construction and commissioning of the project.
provides the advantage of having a single focus and providing a single point
challenging parts of project delivery.
noting that these have
new delivery authority,
Such an arrangement
of contact for the most
Importantly, once the project specification has been agreed, the delivery of tunnel and stations
requires minimal engagement with the operator on day-to-day matters (while acknowledging the
operator will have a critical role in testing and acceptance of the new infrastructure).
The same arrangement is not appropriate for the delivery of the associated surface works which
require significant interaction with the operator and coordination with other DOT programs. These
works lend themselves to more traditional delivery arrangements, for which the existing DOT
structures are ideally suited.
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The above arrangements form the basis of ongoing project planning. The case for a new delivery
authority will be examined in more detail (along with overall delivery strategy) as the commercial
model for delivery is developed in the next phase of the project.
15.1.2
Evolution of governance arrangements
Should a new delivery authority be the preferred governance model, it would not be necessary to
establish such an authority until there is formal approval for the project to proceed. It is not expected
that such approvals will be granted until May 2013 (ie the release of the Commonwealth Government
budget for the 2013/14 financial year), at the earliest. Therefore it is proposed that a staged approach
to governance is adopted which evolves as the project progresses.
Concept development stage (business case) – during the concept stage of project
development (ie current stage) governance has been provided in accordance with DOT’s project
management guidelines. That is, the project is the responsibility of a project team reporting to the
Director of Public Transport. This reflects the importance of the ‘client’ or sponsor role in defining
the project scope and justifying the required investment within the context of competing priorities.
The Director of Public Transport is supported by a Project Control Board comprising
representatives across DOT, DTF, DPC, DPCD and the Commonwealth Government. This wide
cross section of government (both State and Federal) has ensured appropriate ‘buy in’ and
oversight of the project and provided the most appropriate governance structure for the project to
date.
Pre-construction stage (approvals and specification) – the next stage of project development
will adopt a continuation of the current governance arrangements and is detailed in Figure 15-1.
As the project progresses, it will be important that the project team reflects a greater focus on
‘delivery’. To this end, ongoing development should be a joint undertaking shared between both
PTD and TPD. PTD’s role will continue to be critical to ensuring the full engagement of the
operators in the detailed development of project requirements and the successful conclusion to
the statutory planning process. Equally, TPD’s role will be ensuring that development of the
delivery model and specification is such that the project can be delivered in a manner which
provides the greatest value to the State and Commonwealth Governments.
Once the scope of the project has been fully resolved, including resolution of the process for a
seamless transition from project completion to service delivery, the project would be ready to
transition fully to a delivery governance model. Given that this may occur before the final approval is
granted for implementation, some further interim arrangements would be advantageous in managing
the transition. This could include establishment of a Project Board to replace the Project Control
Board. The role of the Project Board would be to prepare the project for transition to a standalone
Delivery Authority, including the establishment of the appropriate protocols for working with DOT,
MTM and other primary stakeholders. It is envisaged that a majority of the Project Board would
become the Board of the Delivery Authority once it is established.
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Business Case
Figure 15-1: Detailed development stage governance structure
15.2
15.2.1
Project team
Work streams
From approval of this business case the project will enter the detailed development stage, expanding
in the number of personnel and skill sets required. Personnel and tasks required for the next phase of
the project includes:
Project management – includes project planning, work package identification, project
scheduling,
reporting,
risk
management
coordination,
project
coordination
and
cost/schedule/quality tracking and reporting.
Engineering – includes the conduct of further technical investigations, completion of the MM
Reference Design, technical standards, develop the contractual specifications, contractual
statement of work and coordination with transport operators and other technical organisations.
Commercial – includes the development and implementation of a commercial acquisition
strategy; probity advice; legal advice; contract document preparation; leading the development of
market communication documentation (EOI(s) and RFT(s)); financial and budgetary planning; and
management of the project.
Property and urban development – includes planning and environmental approvals, land use
planning, land acquisition planning and engagement, community relationships and consultations,
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station architecture and urban integration of MM. Specific assessment and development of the
Arden Urban Renewal precinct and interventions will be a key aspect of this group’s activities,
including gathering sufficient information so as to allow government to make an informed decision
regarding Arden. This will include greater level of detail regarding costs, development outcomes,
opportunities and constraints.
Communications and stakeholders – supporting planning and environmental approvals, media
engagement and general community presentations and communication.
All project teams will also be involved in market engagement, EOI evaluation and various types of
stakeholder communication and engagements.
15.2.2
Organisational structure and staffing profile
The project will need to be staffed by a combination of DOT full-time staff, contractors and
consultants, with some representation from other organisations who will have a significant relationship
with the project (ie VicRoads, DPCD, VicTrack). The majority of staff throughout the next stage are
expected to be contractors, due to the large quantity of complex specialised work to be conducted
over a relatively short period of time.
The organisation’s structure will be representative of the major work streams to be completed during
the pre-construction phase and is indicatively shown on Figure 15-2. Further details are provided in
the pre-construction funding submission.
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Figure 15-2: Indicative MM project organisational structure
Page 289 of 321
15.3
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Reference groups
The project will establish three reference groups (utilising organisations previously involved in the
project from working groups) that will provide project integration within DOT, across government
departments and with other parties related to the outcomes and activities of the project. The reference
groups will be required to review project plans, designs, specifications and strategies, to ensure that
all parties are informed of the project’s activities and provide advice, direction, endorsement and
approval from each of their relevant organisations.
The Technical Reference Group will focus on technical design, specifications, standards, logistics and
design and construction strategy of MM. The Technical Reference Group will be led by the
engineering team of the project and primarily consist of government, operator and engineering
organisations. An indicative composition of the Technical Reference Group is detailed in Figure 15-3.
Figure 15-3: Indicative Technical Reference Group
The second reference group will focus on community related aspects of the project, such as land use
and acquisition, station design and station integration with communities. The Community Reference
Group will be led by the project’s Land Use team and will focus on the communities around each of
the proposed stations and tunnel portal. An indicative composition of the Community Reference
Group is detailed in Figure 15-4. Due to the various locations of stations and different community
effects, the sub-groups of the CRG group may be formed to focus on specific locations.
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Business Case
Figure 15-4: Indicative Community Reference Group
An Approvals Reference Group for the planning and environmental approvals process will be
established after the project has been declared under the MTPFA. This will include representatives
from EPA, DOT, DPCD, Melbourne Water, Heritage Victoria, Aboriginal Affairs Victoria and VicRoads
(Figure 15-5).
Figure 15-5: Indicative Approvals Reference Group
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16
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Funding requirements
The development of Melbourne Metro is progressing through three distinct phases, each with a
defined set of deliverables and funding requirements. These are discussed below.
16.1
Phase 1 – Project Development
Phase 1 (current phase) is the project development phase. The Commonwealth has allocated $40
million to project development, which includes options analysis, preparation of this business case
and undertaking statutory approvals. Phase 1 has so far produced an options assessment, numerous
technical investigations and studies, preliminary environmental investigations, land use planning,
property studies, stakeholder engagement activities, patronage and economics analysis, rail
operations analysis, scope definition, concept design, indicative cost and risk plans and this business
case.
Future activities for the remainder of this phase include:
constructability reviews and further value engineering
further scope and project definition
geotechnical investigations
statutory approval by the Planning Minister under Major Transport Projects Facilitation Act 2009
land requirement finalisation
various further investigations as required (planning, commercial, technical, operational).
The statutory approvals process seeks to establish and protect a reservation for the project, which
requires an estimated $100 million corridor protection funds to compensate landowners for
planning blight as a result of the reservation. This is part of the overall land acquisition budget, but is
required to complete the statutory approvals process. It is envisaged that all land acquisition and
corridor protection budgets will be funded by the State Government.
16.2
Phase 2 – Pre-construction
Phase 2 is the pre-construction phase which principally includes development of a reference design,
completion of an implementation business case and preparation of contract documentation for
market.
The estimated budget to complete this phase is $130 million (nominal), assuming expenditure would
be expended over the next three financial years (FY2012/13 to FY2014/15), with enabling (early)
works extending over the latter two years. This estimate is in addition to the $40 million already
allocated and is separate from the corridor protection budget.
The key deliverables for the design and pre-construction phase are:
66
MM implementation business case and funding submission, including commercial delivery options
66
analysis, comprehensive delivery program and a final cost plan
Assuming a PPP delivery model is selected, this will also involve the development of a Public Sector Comparator.
Page 292 of 321
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Business Case
ongoing value engineering, constructability and program reviews
reference design and technical specifications
station precinct plans
commercial model and delivery strategy
commercial and technical tender documentation
enabling utility works.
These activities are discussed in more detail in the pre-construction funding submission.
16.3
Phase 3 – Implementation
This phase encompasses the delivery of Melbourne Metro - an initial capital estimate of $7 – 7.5
billion (real 2010/11) has been established (refer section 9). This excludes rolling stock and
associated works and ongoing operational costs.
An approximate cash flow profile has been developed to determine an indicative nominal cost
estimate and cash flow. The following escalation rates have been adopted:
4.3% per annum has been applied to all rail-related works for 2012-13 to 2015-16, and 3.9% per
67
annum thereafter ;
6.0% per annum has been applied to land acquisition costs
68
Indicative real and nominal cash flows for implementation of MM are shown respectively in Table 16-1
and Table 16-2 below. All figures are in $millions and have been rounded. They are based on the
upper bound (P90) cost estimate including the pre-construction and corridor protection estimates
identified above.
67
Department of Transport – Schedule of Financial Parameters for Cost Estimates to be used in Funding Submissions, DOT
Finance, 18 August 2011
68
Analysis of property sales in inner Melbourne over the last 20 years for which areas are available DOT Property &
Commercial Development, June 2011
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Business Case
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2019/20
757.7
1,156.7
1,389.2
1,515.5
820.9
315.7
252.6
-
-
-
-
551.8
-
275.9
275.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Arden Development
596.3
-
29.8
53.7
53.7
89.4
143.1
143.1
38.8
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
DoT Levies
46.6
0.3
2.3
6.8
7.6
9.2
10.4
6.0
2.2
1.6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
7,509.2
49.2
365.2
1,094.1
1,218.0
1,487.9
1,669.0
970.0
356.7
263.2
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
Totals
2018/19
57.2
Project implementation –
Rail
Land Acquisition - Rail
2017/18
2014/15
48.9
Total
2016/17
2013/14
6,314.5
Cash flow
2015/16
2012/13
Table 16-1: REAL cash flow profile: MM Total Project implementation (real 2010/11, $m)
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
53.2
65.0
896.7
1,427.8
1,747.7
1,980.9
1,114.8
445.5
370.3
-
-
-
-
6.0%
676.9
-
328.6
348.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Arden Development
4.3%/3.9%
783.1
-
33.8
63.5
66.2
112.5
187.1
194.4
54.7
13.1
13.6
14.2
14.7
15.3
DOT Levies
4.3%/3.9%
59.5
0.3
2.6
8.0
9.3
11.6
13.5
8.2
3.1
2.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
9,621.4
53.5
430.0
1,316.6
1,503.4
1,871.8
2,181.5
1,317.4
503.3
385.8
13.7
14.2
14.8
15.4
Totals
2018/19
2014/15
8,101.8
Land Acquisition
2017/18
2013/14
4.3%/3.9%
Project implementation – Rail
2016/17
Total
Cash flow
2015/16
Escalation
Rate
2012/13
Table 16-2: NOMINAL cash flow profile: MM Total Project implementation (nominal, $m)
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17
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Lessons learned and innovation
The MM project will provide an expansion to inner city rail capacity that is unprecedented in recent
Victorian history. There are examples of similar investments in Victoria, interstate and internationally
which are exemplars of both good practice and the pitfalls to be avoided in major re-development,
tunnelling and rail projects. Case studies can also provide ideas of what can be done and be pointers
for innovation – in the Melbourne context, in relation to tunnelling and transit oriented urban
development.
17.1
The Tunnelling Joint Code of Practice
During the 1990s, the tunnelling industry experienced a number of serious claims, causing the UK
and European insurance markets to apply extremely strict underwriting criteria to tunnelling projects.
This made it difficult, and in some cases impossible, to arrange for appropriate insurance on
tunnelling projects from these insurers. In an effort to address this industry shift, a joint effort between
the Association of British Insurers and the British Tunnelling Society resulted in the Joint Code of
Practice for Risk Management of Tunnel Works (JCoP).
One of the compelling hallmarks of the JCoP is the recommendation that owners implement a
formalised and ongoing risk assessment and risk management process. Application of the
fundamentals of the JCoP is now increasingly being relied upon by insurers in the UK and Europe in
order to make important underwriting decisions for tunnelling projects they insure. United States
insurers do not necessarily rely on the JCoP when underwriting tunnelling risks.
Whether or not the JCoP approach is confirmed to be an effective risk management tool by normal
lagging indicators, it is now increasingly being used as a determinative underwriting criterion by some
UK and European insurers on tunnelling projects of a certain size or character. Those companies that
become familiar with the requirements of the JCoP and establish their own internal risk management
tools to conform generally to the required protocols can be better prepared to address the
underwriting issue. They may also be prepared for possible future shifts in the underwriting criteria
applied by markets outside the UK and Europe or on other types of high risk work.
The JCoP has been and will continue to be an integral part of the development of the MM concept.
17.2
Victorian projects
Several projects have been delivered in Melbourne that provide learnings for MM, both in terms of
tunnelling and project delivery. These include Melbourne Underground Rail Loop, CityLink, EastLink,
M1 Upgrade and Melbourne Water tunnel projects. Significant urban redevelopment projects include
Southbank and Docklands.
17.2.1
Melbourne Underground Rail Loop
The Melbourne Underground Rail Loop (MURL) project commenced construction in 1971 and was
completed in 1985. Its final cost (in say 1978 dollars) was $500 million, which is equivalent to more
than $2 billion in today’s prices. It was fully funded by the government (State and Local Governments
only), with 40% of funding derived from a levy which was to run for 53 years, but ended in 1995. It
was constructed in an environment where stakeholder management and environmental impact were
considered to a far lesser extent than now.
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A project-specific MURL Authority was established to develop and construct the project. The project
was delivered using a traditional design then construct approach (with the State bearing the interface
risk), with multiple construction contracts being awarded to an international team of contractors. The
contract superintendent and project management was provided by a team of engineering consultants,
who were also the designers. This proved ineffective in the management of design and contractor
claims. The project relied heavily on international resources for design, construction and construction
management and also relied on a traditional quality control approach rather than current best practice
quality assurance methodology.
A critical piece of tunnelling under Elizabeth Street was completed using ‘compressed air’ tunnelling
techniques to control ground water and settlement. This technique is not available today because of
OH&S concerns, however suitable mechanical methods are available to minimise this risk.
The final cost of the project was significantly greater than the budget at the time of the formation of
the MURL Authority, in part due to high inflation during the 1970s.
17.2.2
CityLink
CityLink, a $2.2 billion ($3.1 billion in 2009 prices) road project completed in 2000, including
significant tunnelling, was the first Victorian civil engineering project delivered under a Build Own
Operate Transfer model (now referred to as a Public Private Partnership or PPP) with the
concessionaire taking full delivery, operational and patronage risk. The government established a
project-specific authority to oversee the development, delivery and early stages of the operations of
the project. This aided the project significantly in that the authority was focussed on achieving the
government’s project objectives. The authority managed the project interface with other government
departments and agencies against these objectives, rather than the broader department or agency
objectives. This was particularly successful and appropriate because of the limited operational
interfaces during the development and construction period.
However given it was the first PPP-style contract in the State, the market did not adequately
understand the PPP philosophy or risk transfer and lacked maturity in the appreciation of the
liquidated damages environment.
The documentation for the project included clear risk allocation to the concessionaire and led to a
good outcome for the State. When these risk allocations were tested they were found to be sound and
the State achieved the delivery of this project without suffering the consequence of these risks. It
appears that industry, particularly the technical suppliers, did not fully appreciate, and therefore price,
the risks being transferred. However in similar projects developed throughout Australia more recently
it is clear that these risk allocations are better understood and are now being priced. The CityLink
specification was a functional specification allowing industry to be as innovative as possible. This was
broadly a successful approach by the State. Following selection of the preferred party the features of
their own proposal were incorporated in the contract documents.
Design problems that did eventuate were dealt with by the concessionaire, with the quality assurance
and completion processes built into the documentation working to the State’s benefit. Again, industry
did not fully appreciate the consequences of these processes at the time of the development of
CityLink. However, today’s industry is fully aware and prices these consequences into their bids.
The impacts of tunnelling over a broader area were not well understood on CityLink. The project has
therefore catalysed a significant increase in the attention given to broader geographical hydrogeology
matters and to undertaking adequate three-dimensional geotechnical investigations.
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Quality assurance is now built into the processes of all of Australia’s major engineering organisations.
CityLink also suffered from a lack of maturity in the engineering industry at that time due to the lack of
major projects completed in Australia prior to the development of this project. Australia has seen
many major and technically complex road, transport and water projects completed over the last 10 to
15 years providing an experienced project delivery pool to the Australian engineering industry.
17.2.3
EastLink
EastLink, a $2.5 billion road project (or $2.7 billion in 2009 prices), including tunnelling, was
developed and delivered under the State’s Public Private Partnership model and built upon the
CityLink experience. Again, a project specific authority was established, drawing on a number of the
staff who had been involved in the CityLink project. This was essentially a greenfield project, allowing
the design and construction contractor to achieve expenditure rates of approximately $100 million per
month at its peak. The project was delivered by essentially Australian resources, except for the
electronic tolling components. It included minimal interface with existing operational assets, enabling
a smooth delivery except for the completion process. The risk allocation was similar to CityLink and
where CityLink suffered from design problems, EastLink has suffered patronage issues. As with
CityLink, the State has not suffered the consequences of the risks given the risk allocation
incorporated into project documents.
17.2.4
M1 Upgrade
M1 Upgrade, a $1.4 billion freeway upgrade project recently completed was undertaken as a series of
alliances between design and construction contractors and VicRoads, in partnership with CityLink.
The project was delivered promptly and – given the significant operational interface – with minimum
interference to the operation of the road network. The project budget increased during the project
delivery.
17.2.5
Melbourne Main Sewer Replacement
Melbourne Water has a major capital works program, with a pipeline of tunnelling projects to construct
new sewers underway.
The Melbourne Main Sewer Replacement is currently under construction, replacing a brick line tunnel
from West Melbourne into the Main Hobsons Bay sewer. The $220 million project involves the
construction of a tunnel through some complex and difficult ground conditions similar to those that will
be encountered on the MM alignment, including passing under the Yarra River. The MM project team
has held discussions with Melbourne Water regarding their construction techniques, particularly the
river crossing.
Melbourne Water is using an Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) term contract model for a bundle of
upcoming tunnelling works over a six-year period, which has allowed the contractor to have significant
input to the design. Melbourne Water believes this has resulted in significant cost savings.
17.2.6
Southbank
In 1985, the Victorian Government had a vision to realise significant redevelopment opportunities in
Southbank, a previously derelict area of Melbourne. While the Southbank site had a high level of
natural exposure and access due to its proximity to the Melbourne CBD, it did not have a high
amenity. Without Government-led localised amenity improvements and remediation, redevelopment
of Southbank would not have been possible. Key Government interventions included Southbank
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Promenade (1990), Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre (1995) and Crown Entertainment
Complex (1997).
Southbank has now developed into a major location for housing and employment and effectively
forms part of an expanded CBD economic zone, courtesy of major public and private investment.
Southbank is now also home to over 12,000 residents and major cultural destinations such as the Arts
Centre.
Lessons learned from the Southbank redevelopment include:
the need for accessibility
the value of high amenity locations
the advantages of exposure and local identity.
The need for accessibility
Southbank has developed into an employment destination in its own right. This is due in part to the
high levels of transport accessibility adjacent to the site. Due to its proximity to the established CBD
grid, Southbank enjoys direct access to Flinders Street Station, which is the busiest station in
Melbourne. Southbank also has direct access to the St Kilda Road tram network which is one of the
busiest tram corridors in the world.
These major pieces of transport infrastructure have allowed business within Southbank to access a
large number of workers. In addition, Southbank provides residents with localised access to central
Melbourne and capital city functions such as the Arts Centre and Botanic Gardens.
The value of high amenity locations
The redevelopment of Southbank from a range of industrial uses to a major employment node
required substantial amenity improvements. Once again Southbank enjoyed a high level of natural
amenity due to its location on the south side of the Yarra River. The creation of public open space
such as Southbank Promenade has helped transform the area into a place that attracts workers,
residents and tourists alike.
The advantage of exposure and local identity
The development of Southbank into a premium commercial and residential address has been driven
in part by its high level of exposure. The strategic location on the Yarra River with sweeping-river and
city views has attracted significant private investment, while allowing the creation of recognisable
‘brands’ such as Freshwater Place.
17.2.7
Docklands
In more recent times the Victorian Government, through the Docklands Authority (established 1991)
and now VicUrban, has led the redevelopment of Docklands together with the private sector. The
Victorian Government had significant land holdings and partnered with the private sector to develop
Melbourne Docklands as a world-class mixed use precinct with a blend of residential, commercial,
retail and leisure activities. By 2020 VicUrban expects Docklands to become:
Home to 17,000 people
Workplace to 40,000
Destination for 55,000 visitors per day
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Docklands is now home to a number of high profile national and international tenants such as:
National Australia Bank (NAB)
Ericsson
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)
Myer
Similar to Southbank, the Docklands area was historically an industrial and port-related precinct, with
relatively low levels of urban amenity. The vision to transform Docklands, in partnership with the
private sector, centred on similar categories of interventions to Southbank.
The need for accessibility
While Docklands is in close proximity to central Melbourne, Government interventions were required
to provide for greater levels of local accessibility:
Land remediation
Tram route extensions
Road extensions (Bourke and Collins Street extensions)
New roads (Wurundjeri Way)
The northern end of Docklands has direct access to Southern Cross station, which is highly
accessible to workers and therefore an attractive location for business. Docklands is provided with
high levels of access for workers and residents alike through Southern Cross Station, as well as
localised road and tram extensions.
The value of high amenity locations
Docklands, including Etihad Stadium (2000), and Southbank are both areas of high natural amenity
value owing to waterfront views and access. Similar to Southbank the vision for Docklands has
centred on the creation of localised amenity improvements, like New Quay promenade, to generate
street-based activity. These urban amenity upgrades, along with increased accessibility have been
central to the creation of Docklands as a ‘place’ and subsequent private sector investment.
The advantages of exposure and local identity
As part of the vision for Docklands, Government facilitated the extension of Bourke and Collins
Streets into the precinct. This local road intervention has given Docklands a much greater sense of
local identity and exposure, especially to business. Docklands can now provide major national and
international tenants with a Collins Street address and integration into the inner employment core of
Melbourne.
17.3
Interstate projects
In recent history, a handful of rail tunnel projects have been delivered in Australia – notably the
Epping to Chatswood Rail Link in Sydney and the CBD section of the Mandurah Line in Perth. These
provide learnings for the Melbourne Metro project in terms of both the project development approach
and delivery aspects.
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17.3.1
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Epping to Chatswood (Sydney)
The Epping to Chatswood Rail Link project was recently completed at a cost of $2.3 billion. The new
13 kilometre rail link connects Epping and Chatswood stations via twin underground rail tunnels and
provides three new stations at Macquarie University, Macquarie Park and North Ryde and included
new transport interchanges at Epping and Chatswood.
The Macquarie Park station was designed to take advantage of the planned development of this
precinct, which is forecast to become Australia’s fourth largest business district over the next
25 years, with 30,000 jobs.
On average, approximately 8,000 customers have been using the three new stations each weekday,
which is relatively low patronage compared to that envisaged for the MM stations. North Ryde and
Macquarie Park stations will have a 10–20 year patronage ramp up, due to the developing nature of
these precincts.
In delivering the project, many different procurement types were employed. Chatswood Transport
Interchange was constructed as a PPP, delivering a retail hub and the air rights above the station
(currently largely vacant due to a commercial dispute with the developer). The project team went to
some effort to separate a greenfields area for the tunnel contract (civil and systems), with the
brownfields work such as the at-grade tie in undertaken separately as a cost plus contract. Fit out of
the new underground stations was delivered through a construct-only contract, with the State
maintaining control of design aspects such as finishes.
17.3.2
Mandurah – CBD Rail (Perth)
This project extended the existing commuter rail network by 70 kilometres through the construction of
a new line from Perth Central to Mandurah. Eleven new stations were constructed, two of which were
underground. Much of the extension runs down a surface easement in the centre of the Kwinana
freeway. The total cost of the project was $1.65 billion.
In developing the project, TransPerth undertook significant stakeholder consultation around individual
stations, ensuring station designs were ‘owned’ by a nominated group of local stakeholders. Having
the design locally-owned, acted as a defence mechanism against criticism which proved important in
project implementation. TransPerth created a master planning document for the project that was
publicly available. It included the vision, key objectives and any salient points on the local benefits.
Changes to scope were in effect changes to the master plan and had to be justified as such. Scope
creep was limited to 5%.
The underground parts of the extension comprise of 700 metres of twin bore tunnel and 1200 metres
of cut and cover. Perth Central Station was constructed by mining under underpinned structures
while Esplanade Station was cut-and-cover. Sheet piles and props were used for the cut-and-cover
section as the contractor was able to secure a large amount of second hand ground support
equipment from a project in South East Asia. TransPerth considered that this was unsuccessful and
in retrospect would have preferred to use the slurry diaphragm wall technique.
When asked about the apparent low price of the project considering the scope of works, TransPerth
advised that the tenders were fortunately let at a time just prior to the full extent of the resources
boom. They also pointed out that much of the alignment lay in a pre-existing easement that required
little improvement for rail use and sundry land acquisitions were not excessive.
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17.4
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International projects
While Australian cities do not have a strong recent history in delivering major projects that combine
metro rail with urban redevelopment, there are many international examples where this has been
done successfully.
17.4.1
Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway, Hong Kong
The Mass Transit Railway (MTR) Corporation is Hong Kong’s principal rail operator, with the Hong
Kong Government as its majority shareholder. While public transport usage is high in Hong Kong, a
significant proportion of revenue raised by MTR to finance railway infrastructure and transit-oriented
development is generated through property development.
MTR has successfully implemented its ‘Rail + Property’ model whereby high quality residential and
commercial development is packaged with rail infrastructure provision. The consequentially high real
estate prices are a source of value-capture funding for the infrastructure in addition to patronage
income. As a result of the model’s success, it is now being considered for mainland Chinese capital
cities.
Profitability for MTR has been growing steadily since breaking even in the early 1990s to an annual
profit of over HK$8 billion in 2008. Furthermore it is estimated that the Hong Kong Government has
received in the order of HK$140 billion in direct net financial returns over the period of 1980 to 2005.
17.4.2
Bay Area Rapid Transport, San Francisco, California, USA
The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), a rapid transport system servicing the San Francisco Bay Area,
was built in the 1960s and commenced service in 1972. According to studies undertaken in 1978 and
1995, residential housing at BART stations has changed from very low-level development in 1978 to
many more multi-family dwellings in 1995. The demand for high-density dwellings in the suburbs in
1978 was low with a preference for single-family buildings driven by automobile dependence. By
1995, increased housing costs and worsening traffic congestion created higher demand for moderate
and high-density housing in proximity to transport nodes.
BART shows evidence of premiums for office and commercial land near to transit (Holling et al, 2007).
However, Gilbert and Ginn (2001) found that, since the opening of the BART system, population
growth has generally occurred faster in suburbs away from BART stations than those adjacent. On
the other hand, overall employment growth has been higher around BART stations, particularly in
downtown San Francisco.
All four BART stations in downtown San Francisco have been the focus of intensive office and retail
development. Montgomery Station has seen the most intensive development, with the area around
the station being zoned for the highest floor space ratios and allowable building heights in the city.
The area around the station saw numerous tall skyscrapers built there before the 1992-96 recession.
The Fruitvale Transit Village was constructed at the Fruitvale BART Station which is serviced by three
heavy rail routes. The success of the Fruitvale Transit Village can be attributed to the involvement of
the local community and The Spanish Speaking Unity Council (a not-for-profit body) which pushed for
a transit oriented development at the site. The project comprises a 20 acre mixed use development
with neighbourhood retail, affordable housing and places for community interaction on land that had
previously been a parking lot.
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17.4.3
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Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Washington DC’s Union Station is a prime example of densification and redevelopment around
stations. This project saw 1200–1500 jobs generated following the refurbishment as well as new
business development.
The Metrorail system attracted $US970 million of new development along its corridor in its first three
years of operation, returning around $US50 million in local tax revenues in 1985 alone. The New
York Avenue Station was built with a mix or private and public funds. The assessed valuation of the
35-block area increased from $US535 million in 2001 to $US2.3 billion in 2007. Over 15,000 jobs
have been created since 1998, with $US1.1 billion in private investment (National Council for PublicPrivate Partnerships, 2006).
In the Washington DC communities of West Hyattsville and Maryland, overly restrictive station
development plans that did not relate to market conditions failed to create sufficient economic
incentives for the type of development required. The Transit Oriented Development (TOD)
development potential was stifled in these instances, highlighting the need to understand the market
conditions when writing planning controls.
However, ‘fast-track’ permit approvals assisted
development around some Washington DC metro stations such as Bethesda. An ‘optimal zoning’
standard put projects with high quality construction and public amenities, such as pedestrian friendly
design, on a fast-track for permit approval.
The New York Avenue Metrorail Station was an infill station on the existing Red Line in Washington
DC, which opened for service in November 2004. It was the first Metrorail station in Washington to be
funded by a mix of public and private funds.
A ‘Transit Benefit District’ was used to fund 28% of the station cost. Prior to station construction, the
area had a mix of residential, commercial and light industrial uses with substantial vacant properties.
Even with the vacant properties, nearby sites were at capacity and no new development was being
delivered. Property owners within the District agreed to a ‘Metro Benefit Fee’ requiring property
owners within 2000 feet of the station to collectively generate $US25 million to fund general obligation
bonds.
The willingness of property owners to contribute to the construction cost was a reflection of the
expected potential of the new station to increase property values, thereby encouraging new
development opportunities.
17.4.4
Crossrail, London, UK
CrossRail is a project which will provide new high frequency rail connections under central London. It
is based around an east-west tunnel with a central section from Paddington to Liverpool Street
station, joining up existing commuter lines that extend to the east and the west of London. The
second route is the Chelsea-Hackney line. Due to commence in 2017, 10-carriage trains will run at
frequencies of up to 24 trains per hour in each direction through the central tunnel section.
CrossRail has been designed to reduce crowding on London’s transport network by increasing route
choice and providing faster and more reliable connections. It will operate with main line size trains,
carrying more than 1500 passengers in each train during peak periods.
CrossRail will deliver substantial economic benefits for London, the South-East and across the UK,
with predicted contributions of at least £36 billion to the British economy. For every £1 spent on
building it, £2.60 will be returned in various benefits to the community (Transport for London figures,
May 2006).
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In recognition of this economic contribution, the London Mayor has announced a business levy of up
to 2% on business properties valued more than £55,000 following the opening of CrossRail for a
period of 24 to 31 years. The levy, to be imposed by local government, is expected to collect £4.1
billion of the project’s £15.9 billion cost.
Up to 14,000 people are expected to be employed at the peak of construction, creating new jobs and
safeguarding existing ones. A new Tunnelling Academy is being created to help people into work.
17.4.5
Second Avenue Subway, New York City, New York, USA
The Second Avenue Subway will be New York City’s first major expansion of the subway system in
over 50 years. When fully complete, the line will stretch 8.5 miles along the length of Manhattan's
East Side, from 125th Street in Harlem to Hanover Square in Lower Manhattan. In addition, a track
connection to the existing 63rd Street and Broadway Lines, will allow a second subway line to provide
direct service from East Harlem and the Upper East Side to West Midtown via the Broadway express
tracks.
The $US3.8 billion first phase of the subway line, formally commenced in April 2007, will cover a two
mile stretch of subway from 96th to 63rd streets, where trains will link up to the existing subway grid.
The line is slated to carry about 200,000 weekday passengers when it opens in 2013.
The Report on the Economic Benefits of the Second Avenue Subway and East Side Access,
(prepared by the Office of Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney, February 3, 2009) states the Second
Avenue Subway has created 16,000 jobs, generated $US842 million in wages and produced $US2.87
billion in economic activity for the city.
17.4.6
International projects key observations
Key observations from international metro case studies are summarised as follows:
1. Transit infrastructure can measurably increase property values when compared to non-TOD
locations. The magnitude of land value premiums is largely associated with the age of the system
and it may take time for market values for property to reflect the accessibility premium brought by
proximity to passenger rail. Land values often take between 15 and 20 years to mature.
2. Transit infrastructure itself is not enough to catalyse development if the market conditions are not
supportive.
3. Walkable streets and community life are more important to the success of TODs than dwelling
density. This includes pedestrian-friendly infrastructure, weather protection, security and
surveillance.
4. There is a clear link between urban planning and transit-oriented outcomes. Development controls
and incentives are required to generate activity in TOD precincts.
5. Public investment can build confidence and spur additional investment in station areas.
Government agencies need to take on a role in developing demonstration projects to guide the
market.
6. Amenity, quality design and reduced parking requirements are important factors in influencing the
success of TODs.
7. Station area planning works best when it responds to the needs of the local community and
broader region. This helps build community support as well as integration with surrounding uses.
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18
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Public interest issues and Transport
Integration Act
18.1
Overview
The development of MM has involved close consideration of the principles and objectives in the
Transport Integration Act (TIA). Mapping of key aspects of the project against the TIA principles and
objectives shows very strong alignment. The mapping also showed that public interest issues are
comprehensively incorporated in the project.
18.2
Public interest
The impact of the initiative must be assessed against the eight elements of public interest issues
outlined in DTF’s business case guidance. These public interest issues are closely linked to those
embodied in the TIA, which therefore provides a helpful and relevant lens through which these issues
can be considered.
This public interest test was undertaken for a general investment, not specifically for a PPP. The
public interest test for a PPP will be undertaken as part of the detailed assessment of a PPP in the
next phase.
The eight elements of public interest are:
Effectiveness
Accountability and transparency
Affected individuals and community
Equity
Consumer rights
Public access
Security
Privacy
18.3
Principles
MM has been planned using the guiding principles in the TIA. It is both appropriate and necessary to
gauge the compatibility of such a major Government initiative such as MM to the legislative
centrepiece of the Victorian Government’s integrated approach to transport and land use planning.
This assessment also satisfies the public interest issues test.
Three Overriding Principles derived from the TIA which are relevant to MM are being used to guide
the project’s development:
The rail system should be considered in its role as an integrated part of the Victorian and
Australian economy and the transport system supporting State and Federal priorities. Rail’s
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natural competitive advantages for mass transit should be grasped to grow its role within the
wider transport system.
All decisions should be based on a triple bottom-line assessment, taking account of market
demand and value for money, with a long-term outlook on the wider transport and land use
system.
The purpose, value and justification for any investments and other interventions should be
transparent from stakeholders’ perspectives.
These overriding principles are embedded in the decision-making principles as discussed below in
Table 18-1. The relevant public interest issues are noted.
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Table 18-1: Compatibility of MM with Transport Integration Act decision-making principles
Decision-making principle and meaning
Integrated decision making
Seeking to achieve Government policy objectives through
coordination between all levels of government and
government agencies and with the private sector
Relevant Public Interest Issue:
•
Melbourne Metro compatibility
East West Link Needs Assessment Study – involved consultation with the public and across agencies. MM
was a key initiative identified to address lack of east-west connectivity and became a centrepiece of the
seven-stage rail capacity upgrade plan
The project has been undertaken in partnership with the Department of Planning & Community Development
(DPCD) to ensure the project’s city-shaping objectives guide the project appropriately. DPCD is leading work
on the Arden Urban Renewal precinct, an important aspect of the overall MM business case. DPCD is also
investigating land use intensification opportunities which might arise from the increase in service provision
and has shaped the land use considerations of the options assessment
City of Melbourne and City of Port Phillip (CoPP) have been engaged on the project as appropriate and fully
support the proposed scheme. CoPP would like to see MM extended to St Kilda. CoM’s Municipal Strategic
Statement is structured around MM being the biggest change in the city’s form in the foreseeable future
The project team participated in the development of the DOT’s flagship collaboration initiative, the Port &
Inner West Conceptual Framework. The Arden Station and surrounding development is an important
component of the strategy to revitalise the inner west and better link Melbourne’s west to economic
opportunities
The project is being undertaken in collaboration with other project teams (eg RRL, SEP, WestLink) and with
strategic transport planners within DOT and DPCD to ensure future options are protected where appropriate
to ensure future capacity, flexibility and certainty
Market soundings have been undertaken with the private sector (construction companies, financiers) to gauge
interest in the project and to understand views and issues on appropriate delivery methods for the project
Triple bottom line assessment
Assessment of all the economic, social and environmental
costs and benefits taking into account externalities and value
for money
•
Effectiveness
•
Triple bottom-line (TBL) assessment is a fundamental component of business case requirements for the
Victorian Government and Infrastructure Australia (IA) and so have formed a critical part of assessments to
date, influencing the various levels of options assessment and definition of the scope
The TBL assessment takes account of market demand and value for money, with a long-term outlook on the
wider transport and land use system
IA has already designated the project its highest status (‘ready to proceed’), based on the TBL assessments
to date, which have been refined in this business case. MM2 has been designated as having ‘real potential’
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Equity
equity between persons irrespective of their:
−
personal attributes, including age, physical ability,
ethnicity, culture, gender and financial situation; or
−
location, including whether in a growth, urban,
regional, rural or remote area
equity between generations by not compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their needs
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
MM improves accessibility to jobs and services in inner Melbourne from the western and northern suburbs
and outer suburban growth corridors which have low jobs to residents ratios, lower socio-economic status and
poorer access to education and services compared with the eastern suburbs
MM improves accessibility to the public transport system by removing barriers or improving functionality
and/or ease of use of the rail system through provision of new, fully accessible stations
MM is future proofed to allow for the future development of the transport system as outlined in DOT plans.
Long-term options for the system that future generations may wish to implement are protected as far as
practical
The proposed PPP delivery model ensures the funding burden of a project is shared across generations
Relevant Public Interest Issues
•
Equity
•
Consumer Rights
Transport system user perspective
understanding the requirements of transport system users,
including their information needs
enhancing the useability of the transport system and the
quality of experiences of the transport system
Relevant Public Interest Issues
•
Public access
•
Security
The project has considered in detail the transport user requirements, for example station access and mobility,
wayfinding and public transport interchange, to ensure a quality user experience
Passenger information is a critical user requirement which has been allowed for and will be specified in detail
in the detailed design of the stations
Development of the project concept has been based on a vision and strategy for the transport and land use
system
Direct input from users has been sought through consultation and surveys
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Precautionary
If there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental
damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as
a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental
degradation. The precautionary principle includes:
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
The project is seeking to minimise the impacts on the environment both temporary and permanent. A
preliminary assessment of environmental and social impacts was undertaken both to inform the options
assessment and to ensure there were no issues of such significance that the project should not proceed
MM includes viable ESD measures to optimise sustainability performance of the project
The technical concept development for MM allows for the impact of climate change
a careful evaluation to avoid serious or irreversible damage to
the environment wherever practicable
an assessment of the risk-weighted consequences of various
options
•
Effectiveness
Stakeholder engagement and community participation
taking into account the interests of stakeholders, including
transport system users and members of the local community
EWLNA and subsequent government strategies have involved public processes and release of detailed
information to inform the public about the Government’s transport strategies and projects, including MM
adopting appropriate processes for stakeholder engagement
Stakeholders and community groups have been and will continue to be engaged at all stages of the project
deliberations to ensure views are accounted for
A web-based survey was undertaken between July and September 2010, which generated a very large
response, overwhelmingly in favour of the project and the station locations
•
•
Consumer Rights
•
Privacy
Transparency
Members of the public should have access to reliable and
relevant information in appropriate forms to facilitate a good
understanding of transport issues and the process by which
decisions in relation to the transport system are made
•
•
Public access
The project has remained faithful to the intentions and integrated strategies underpinning the seven-stage rail
capacity upgrade plan, indicating a consistent and transparent approach to planning the urban transport and
land use system. This improves public confidence that there is a long term plan and improves understanding
of transport issues
A 20-page booklet describing the project details and preferred station locations was released to the public in
July 2010 for comment and information
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18.4
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TIA Objectives
MM has been assessed against the range of objectives specified in the TIA. While the objectives for MM are more specific than the TIA objectives it is
appropriate to gauge the compatibility of the TIA’s overarching objectives. Table 18-2 below shows MM comprehensively delivers on TIA objectives.
Table 18-2: Compatibility of MM with Transport Integration Act objectives
Transport Integration Act Objective
Melbourne Metro response
The transport system should facilitate economic prosperity by:
MM is focused on increasing the efficiency of the Northern Group to increase
accessibility to jobs and services, contributing to the development of a ‘least cost’ city
a. enabling efficient and effective access for persons and goods to places of
employment, markets and services
MM is being developed with value management techniques to ensure the most costefficient scope
b. increasing efficiency through reducing costs and improving timeliness
The city-shaping nature of the project provides agglomeration and wider economic
benefits by enhancing accessibility to key economic centres, particularly for residents
of the west and north
Economic
c. fostering competition by providing access to markets
d. facilitating investment in Victoria
e. supporting financial sustainability
Environmental
The transport system should actively contribute to environmental sustainability by:
a. protecting, conserving and improving the natural environment
b. avoiding, minimising and offsetting harm to the local and global environment,
including through transport-related emissions and pollutants and the loss of
biodiversity
c. promoting forms of transport and the use of forms of energy and transport
technologies which have the least impact on the natural environment
MM creates opportunities for investment in Victoria in the delivery of the project, in
urban development and in business.
MM increases capacity of public transport system and hence provides the opportunity
for more people to use public transport, thereby reducing emissions of greenhouse
gases and pollutants, noise, land take and other environmental impacts
Viable sustainability initiatives are included in the project scope to enable reduced
use of natural resources and the environmental impact of the whole transport system
The city-shaping nature of MM will help build a low-impact urban form, with reduced
travel distances, reduced reliance on motor vehicles and avoided impacts of urban
expansion into Melbourne’s hinterland
d. improving the environmental performance of all forms of transport and the forms
of energy used in transport
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Social
The transport system should provide a means by which persons can access social
and economic opportunities to support individual and community wellbeing including
by:
e. minimising barriers to access so that so far as is possible the transport system is
available to as many persons as wish to use it
f.
MM grows stock of human capital improves accessibility to jobs and services in inner
Melbourne from the western and northern suburbs which have low jobs to residents
ratios compared with the eastern suburbs
MM is designed incorporating accessibility principles by avoiding barriers or
functionality which would otherwise restrain access through provision of new, fully
accessible stations
providing tailored infrastructure, services and support for persons who find it
difficult to use the transport system
Integration
1. The transport system should provide for the effective integration of transport and
land use and facilitate access to social and economic opportunities
2. Without limiting the generality of subsection (1), transport and land use should be
effectively integrated so as to improve accessibility and transport efficiency with a
focus on:
a. maximising access to residences, employment, markets, services and
recreation
b. planning and developing the transport system more effectively
c. reducing the need for private motor vehicle transport and the extent of travel
d. facilitating better access to, and greater mobility within, local communities
3. Without limiting the generality of subsection (1), the transport system and land
use should be aligned, complementary and supportive and ensure that:
a. transport decisions are made having regard to the current and future impact
on land use
b. land use decisions are made having regard for the current and future
development and operation of the transport system
c. transport infrastructure and services are provided in a timely manner to
support changing land use and associated transport demand
4. Without limiting the generality of subsection (1), the transport system should
improve the amenity of communities and minimise impacts of the transport
system on adjacent land uses
Selection of alignment and station locations is based on unlocking inner urban land
redevelopment opportunities (eg Arden), maximising access to existing development
and reshaping the west, having regard for likely future urban growth as described the
government’s projections and strengthening the central city
MM improves accessibility to key economic activities (such as Parkville medical
precinct, CBD, Melbourne University and St Kilda Road), by integrating the project
with existing land uses and thus improving efficiency of the transport system
generally
MM will support transit oriented development patterns, by encouraging the take-up of
opportunities to intensify land use around new metro stations and existing stations on
the wider network
MM reduces congestion across the transport network, including road, tram and train
networks, thereby increasing the efficiency of the transport and land use system.
Station Access & Mobility studies have been undertaken for each MM station to
ensure transport network integration and maximum mobility by all modes
Opportunities for urban intensification along all the rail corridors which have higher
levels of services have been identified. These opportunities arise from changing
zonings (eg from industrial to residential) that encourage more intense development;
or the rail service improvements enable more intense development to be served
more efficiently
Land which is being acquired for construction of the project is being assessed for
redevelopment potential, which includes the impact that acquisition may have on the
community. This assessment is also informing the selection of locations for
construction sites, ventilation shafts and access points
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Safety and Health
1. The transport system should be safe and support health and wellbeing
2. Without limiting the generality of subsection (1) the transport system should:
a. seek to continually improve the safety performance of the transport system
through:
i.
safe transport infrastructure
MM promotes increased use of public transport thereby reducing adverse safety and
health impacts from transport (eg reduced transport accidents, more use of ‘active’
transport modes)
MM is scoped in a manner to maximise public safety outcomes (a fundamental
design criterion) in accordance with Victorian rail standards and the rail operator’s
risk register in that at minimum the project will not cause the system to be no less
safe than it is currently
ii. safe forms of transport
iii. safe transport system user behaviour
b. avoid and minimise the risk of harm to persons arising from the transport
system
c. promote forms of transport and the use of forms of energy which have the
greatest benefit for, and least negative impact on, health and wellbeing
Efficiency, Coordination and Reliability
1. The transport system should facilitate network-wide efficient, coordinated and
reliable movements of persons and goods at all times
2. Without limiting the generality of subsection (1), the transport system should:
a. balance efficiency across the network so as to optimise the network capacity
of all modes of transport and reduce journey times
b. maximise the efficient use of resources including infrastructure, land, services
and energy
c. facilitate integrated and seamless travel within and between different modes
of transport
Contributes to the provision of more efficient, coordinated and reliable journeys for
rail services by removing existing rail system bottlenecks in the inner core and
increasing the efficiency and capacity of the rail network to accommodate the future
growth in demand
MM has been designed and options have been selected on the basis of facilitating
integrated and seamless transfer between rail and other modes
MM contributes to optimising use of the existing rail network by removing inner core
capacity constraints thereby enabling more intensive use of existing corridors
MM is being undertaken in collaboration with other project teams (eg RRL, SEP) and
with strategic public transport planners within DOT to ensure future rail options are
protected where necessary to ensure future capacity, flexibility and certainty
d. provide predictable and reliable services and journey times and minimise any
inconvenience caused by disruptions to the transport system
Page 311 of 321
19
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Recommendation
This assessment of the MM project demonstrates that it will shape Melbourne’s development over the
next 20–30 years. It shows compelling economic, social and environmental benefits and justifiably
enjoys strong stakeholder and community support.
In acknowledgement of the scale and complexity of the project it is recommended that Governments
proceed with the next phases of development to enable a full implementation business case to be
prepared.
It is recommended that this business case be endorsed as a basis for considering the preconstruction and corridor protection funding submissions.
Page 312 of 321
20
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Bibliography
Policy documents
Transport Integration Act (Victorian Government, 2010)
State of Australian Cities (Infrastructure Australia, 2010)
Victorian Transport Plan (Victorian Government, December 2008)
Melbourne @ 5 million (Victorian Government, December 2008)
Future Melbourne (City of Melbourne, 2008)
Freight Futures (Victorian Government, December 2008)
National Objectives and Criteria for Future Strategic Planning of Capital Cities (COAG, 2009)
Investing in Transport, East West Link Needs Assessment (DOT (Eddington) 2008)
Melbourne 2030 (Victorian Government, 2002)
Project submissions
Regional Rail Link & Melbourne Metro 1 Rail Tunnel – Project Plan for Infrastructure Australia as at
January 2009 (DOT, 2009)
Regional Rail Link & Melbourne Metro 1 Project Plan: Progress Report for Infrastructure Australia as
at October 2009 (DOT, 2009)
Melbourne Metro Progress Report for Infrastructure Australia (Victorian Government, November
2011)
Melbourne Metro One, Pre-Construction Business Case (Draft) (DOT 1 December 2010)
Patronage forecasting and transport modelling
Understanding and Forecasting Metropolitan Public Transport Patronage (DOT, 2008)
Melbourne Metro Business Case Application of the Enhanced MITM (final), AECOM, (2010)
Strategic Model Enhancements for the Melbourne Metro Project (final), AECOM (2010)
ZENITH Model Report Melbourne Metro Stage 1 Business Case draft), VLC (2010)
ZENITH Model Report Melbourne Metro Stage 1 Options Testing, VLC (2010)
Melbourne Metro Transport Modelling Metro Patronage Results Version 5 (draft), Bell (2010)
Melbourne Metro Transport Modelling, A Tale of two Models, version 6 (draft), Bell (2010)
Melbourne Metro One Business Case Public transport patronage forecasts (draft), DOT (2010)
Victorian Official Patronage Series, June 2010 edition, Department of Transport (2010)
Land use and urban development
Arden Urban Renewal Precinct, Working Paper (Draft), DPCD, February 2011
Small Area Land Use Projections: Melbourne Metro Scenario (SGS, March 2010)
Melbourne Metro 1 Urban Renewal Opportunities Study, Final Draft (City of Melbourne, 2009)
Page 313 of 321
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Density Study – North and South Melbourne (Buchan, 2009)
Development Concept Plans for North and South Melbourne (Buchan, 2009)
Station Options Investigation (SGS, 2008)
Metro Melbourne, Retail Advisory, Final Report (Colliers International, November 2010)
Assessment of Property Development Opportunities at Alternative Station Locations (Charter Keck
Cramer, 2010)
Arden Metro Flood Mapping and Technical Information (Melbourne Water, 2010)
Utility Services Analysis and Environmentally Sustainable Development for North Melbourne Precinct
(AECOM, 2010)
Cost Estimates for Infrastructure Projects – North Melbourne Redevelopment Area (Currie and
Brown, 2010)
Economics
Melbourne Metro Economic Assessment working paper, DOT, November 2010
Melbourne Metro 1 – Urban Consolidation Benefits (DOT, 2010)
Arden Metro Business Case, Societal Benefits Assessment, Final Report, SGS, 15 December 2010
Agglomeration Elasticities in New Zealand, Motu Working Paper No. 09-06, Mare, D. and Graham, D.
(2009)
Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity: Preliminary Estimates of Agglomeration Benefits in
Australian Cities, Curtin University’s Sustainability Policy Institute, Trubka, R. (2009)
Wider Economic Benefits of Transport Improvement: Link between Agglomeration and Productivity,
Stage 2 Report, prepared for the Department for Transport, London, Graham, D.J. (2006)
Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity. American Economic Review 86:54-70, Ciccone, A.
and Hall, R.E. (1996)
ATC National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia, Volume 5
Technical
Melbourne Metro Concept Summary Report, Aurecon et al, 25 November 2011
Melbourne Metro, Peer Review Supplementary Report, MM Peer Review Team, November 2011
Melbourne Metro Phase 1 Contamination Assessment and Acid Sulphate Assessment, Golder
Associates, August 2011
Melbourne Metro Stage 2 Phase 1, Hydrogeological Interpretive Report, Golder Associates,
September 2011
Melbourne Metro Stage 2 Phase 1, Geotechnical Interpretive Report, Golder Associates, 6 July 2011
Melbourne Metro – High Alignment Options, Constructability Assessment, Evans & Peck, 17 June
2011
MM1 Extension Study, Aurecon et al, 12 July 2011
Melbourne Metro 1 Peer Review (Draft), MM Peer Review Team, October 2010
Melbourne Metro Stage 1, Concept Development Report, Aurecon et al, 29 October 2010
Page 314 of 321
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Melbourne Metro Stage 1, Concept Development Technical Discipline Reports (27), Volumes 1-5,
Aurecon et al, 15 October 2010
Melbourne Metro 1, Options Cost Estimate Report (Aurecon, 2010)
East West Rail Link Engineering Study (Connell Wagner, 2008)
Melbourne Metro – CBD Vertical Alignment Review (PB, 2009)
Additional Option Study – Melbourne Metro 2 (Aurecon, 2009)
Station Access & Mobility/Tram
Melbourne Metro Tram Network Plan, Final Report (AECOM, October 2010)
Strategic Rapid Assessment of Tram Network – Metro Route Alignment and Staging Options
(AECOM, 2010)
Melbourne Metro: Impact on Inner Tram Network (DOT, 2009)
Arden Metro Station Access and Mobility Plan, Report 1: Issues, Opportunities and Needs (AECOM,
2010)
Arden Metro Station Access and Mobility Plan, Report 2: Station and Entrance Location, (AECOM,
2010)
Arden Metro Station Access and Mobility Plan, Report 3: Station and Precinct Supporting Measures,
(AECOM, 2010)
Parkville Station Access and Mobility Plan, Identification and Assessment Paper; (AECOM, 2010)
Station Access and Mobility Plans – CBD Precinct for Melbourne Metro 1, (SKM and Booz&Co, 2010)
Domain Metro Station Access and Mobility Plan, Report 1: Issues, Opportunities, (AECOM, 2010)
Domain Metro Station Access and Mobility Plan, Report 2: Station and Entrance Location; (AECOM,
2010)
Domain Metro Station Access and Mobility Plan, Report 3: Station and Precinct Supporting Measures,
(AECOM, 2010)
Parkville Access and Mobility Plan (AECOM, 2009)
Parkville Precinct Strategic Plan (Victorian Government, 2006)
Parkville and Domain Stations, Concept Design (Grimshaw, 2009)
Station Access and Mobility Plan – CBD Precinct, Preliminary Analysis for Input into Options
Assessment for Melbourne Metro 1 (Booz & Co, 2010)
Station Access and Mobility Plans – West Melbourne and South Melbourne, Preliminary Analysis for
Input into Options Assessment for Melbourne Metro 1 (AECOM, 2010)
Planning & Environmental
Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Accounts, State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories
2009, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australian Government, 2011
Greenhouse Gas Emissions associated with MM, Draft Working Paper, DOT, November 2010
Melbourne Metro 1 Planning and Environmental Services Stage One Preliminary Assessment (Beca,
March 2010)
Page 315 of 321
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
A Spatial Analysis of Future Macro-Urban Form, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Transport Energy
Outcomes for Melbourne, Jeremy Whiteman and Gavin Alford, Department of Transport
Unsettling Suburbia: The New Landscape of Oil and Mortgage Vulnerability in Australian Cities, Jago
Dodson and Neil Sipe, Griffith University Urban Research Program, Research Paper 17, August 2008
Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change, Urban Land Institute,
Washington 2007
Transport and Stationary Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios for Melbourne 2031,
Jeremy Whiteman, ATRF 2010 Proceedings, 29 September – 1 October 2010, Canberra Australia
Other supporting studies and project documents
Melbourne Metro Options Assessment Report, DOT, March 2010
Melbourne Metro Communications and Stakeholder Engagement Strategy, DOT, November 2011
MM Preliminary Procurement Strategy Overview, Ernst & Young, March 2010
MM Procurement Strategy Development, Ernst & Young, November 2010
MM Detailed Development and Market Engagement Program, Firecone, January, 2011
Melbourne Metro Two, Alignment Options Assessment, DOT, September 2011
Page 316 of 321
21
Acronyms and Glossary of Terms
Acronym
ARO
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Full name
Description
Accredited Rail Operator
Agglomeration externalities relate to the benefits which flow to firms and households from locating
in areas which have a high density of economic activity (measured by employment). Such
locations allow firms to achieve economies of scale through access to an extensive customer
base. This large customer base presents firms the opportunity for economies of scope. That is,
with increased numbers of clients, firms gain efficiencies be specialising in a particular field. With
many firms located together there will be a high level of knowledge transfer between firms, which
will help bolster innovation. This innovation is vital for firms to survive in a competitive market
place. The degree of business agglomeration in any given location can be measured by Effective
Job Density (EJD); that is the number of jobs hosted by that location plus other jobs accessible to
that location divided by the travel time (or cost) incurred by economic transactors in reaching all
these jobs.
-
Agglomeration
ATC
Australian Transport Council
BCR
Benefit Cost Ratio
CAA
Central Activities Area
CEPR
Customer Experience Performance Regime
CHMP
Cultural Heritage Management Plan
CIS
Comprehensive Impact Statement
CPI
Consumer Price Index
COO
Concept of Operations
Operating plan for rail system
DBM
Design Build & Maintain
Method of procurement
Designated activity districts which provide second order CBD functions – Broadmeadows,
Footscray, Ringwood, Box Hill, Dandenong, Geelong and Frankston. Formerly known as Central
Activities Districts
As specified in the MTPFA
Page 317 of 321
Acronym
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Full name
-
Default Scheme
IPCD
Integrated Programs Co-ordination Division (DOT)
DDA
Disability Discrimination Act (1995)
DOT
Department of Transport
DPC
Department of Premier and Cabinet
DPCD
Department of Planning & Community Development
DSE
Department of Sustainability & Environment
DTF
Department of Treasury & Finance
EEA
Environmental Effects Assessment
EES
Environment Effects Statement
EJD
Effective Job Density
EOI
Expression of Interest
EPBC
Environment Protection & Biodiversity Conservation
Act (1999)
ERF
Emergency Relief Facility
ESD
Environmentally Sensitive Design
EWLNA
East West Link Needs Assessment
FSS
Flinders Street Station
GAA
Growth Areas Authority
GHG
Greenhouse Gas
Description
Through the EWLNA and subsequent DOT planning, a default scheme was proposed for the
Melbourne Metro, based on the preferred corridor option. The default scheme follows a Swanston
St alignment with new underground stations built at Parkville, Swanston Street North, Swanston
Street South and Domain as part of MM1. As part of MM2, the default scheme follows a
Dandenong Road alignment to Caulfield, with stations at Alfred, Windsor and Orrong Road
Victorian Government Departments
A measure of proximity and accessibility of jobs to each other. Refer agglomeration
Page 318 of 321
Acronym
GIC
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Full name
Description
Governor in Council
-
Human Capital
Improvements to the stock of human capital will not only flow into improved productivity. Human
capital benefits accrue to households from improved accessibility, as distinct from firms gaining a
wider economic (agglomeration) benefit through locating themselves in areas with high levels of
accessibility. Other non-market impacts can be anticipated, such as decreased crime and
improved health, representing an increase in welfare.
HCS
High Capacity Signalling
In-cab signalling with automatic train protection and warning systems enabling high frequency
operations
HCMT
High capacity metro train
IVT
In-Vehicle Time
JCOP
Joint Code of Practice (Tunnelling)
KPI
Key Performance Indicator
LACA
Land Acquisition Compensation Act
MITM
Melbourne Integrated Transport Model
MTM
Metro Trains Melbourne
MTPFA
Major Transport Projects Facilitation Act (2009)
MURL
Melbourne Underground Rail Loop
MM
Melbourne Metro Stage One
MM2
Melbourne Metro Stage Two
-
Metro style services
NPV
Net Present Value
OHLE
Overhead Line Equipment
OPR
Operational Performance Regime
OH&S
Occupational Health & Safety
Department of Transport’s strategic four-step transport model using Cube software
Page 319 of 321
Acronym
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Full name
Description
PPP
Public Private Partnership
PSC
Public Sector Comparator
PTD
Public Transport Division (DOT)
PTDA
PV
Present Value
RLV
Residual Land Value
RRL
Regional Rail Link
SAM
Station Access and Mobility
SEP
Sunbury Electrification Project
SLA
Statistical Local Area
-
Sectorisation / Segregation
Disaggregation of the four metropolitan rail groups into separate sectors or metro lines which
operate on dedicated tracks and independently of each other, with dedicated rolling stock,
stabling and maintenance facilities
TA
Technical Advisor
Providers of engineering and architectural services to the project team
TBL
Triple Bottom Line
Social, environmental and economic impacts
TBM
Tunnel Boring Machine
TIA
Transport Integration Act (2010)
TOD
Transit Oriented Development
TPD
Transport Projects Division (DOT)
TSV
Transport Safety Victoria
VFM
Value for Money
VOC
Vehicle Operating Cost
Transport safety regulator in Victoria reporting directly to Ministers
Page 320 of 321
Acronym
Melbourne Metro
Business Case
Full name
VOT
Value of Time
WEB
Wider Economic Benefit
-
Zenith
Description
Strategic four-step transport model using proprietary software (Veitch Lister Consulting)
Page 321 of 321

Melbourne Metro Business Case

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