“Five years from now…” Why Mexico will be #1 in IT

“Five years from now…”
Why Mexico will be #1 in IT
Daniel M. Roy
danroy@stpp.com
STPP Inc.
Inc. / Avantare
Secretaria de economia
economia,, Mexico D.F.
6 November 2008
© Avantare Consultores S. A. de C. V. – Derechos Reservados
Contenido
•
The tools of competitiveness
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CMMI
PSP/TSP
The People CMM (P-CMM)
Understanding cultural differences
Market and competition
A winning strategy
Conclusiones y recomendaciones
PSP, TSP, Personal Software Process and Team Software Process are service marks of CMU
CMM and Capability Maturity Model are registered in the U.S. patent and trademark office
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and MBTI are registered trademarks of Consulting Psychologists Press, Inc
© Avantare Consultores S. A. de C. V. – Derechos Reservados
Profiting from software
“When I mention software to senior executives, I
get lots of reactions. Most are frustrated. They
complain about missed commitments, quality
problems, and unpleasant surprises… No one
mentions the business opportunities of
software… While most executives would agree
that the software part of their business is
growing very quickly, they never think of it as
an asset or an opportunity”
Watts S. Humphrey
Winning with software
What’s a CMMI?
•
•
•
•
•
•
The CMMI derives from Schewart, Deming,
Juran, Crosby and others’ work
It describes universally accepted system
development management practices
It provides a clear roadmap for improvement
It relates process maturity with expected results
It offers a simple framework for assessment
It is used by thousands of organizations (large
and small) worldwide
CMMI Dev 1.2 PAs
Level
5 Optimizing
4 Quantitat.
Managed
3 Defined
2 Managed
1 Initial
Focus
Key Process Areas
Continuous process
improvement
Quantitative
management
Organizational Innovation and Deployment
Causal Analysis and Resolution
Organization
engineering
process
standardization
Requirements Development
Technical Solution
Verification
Validation
Organization Process Focus
Organization Process Definition
Organizational Training
Integrated Project Management
Risk management
Decision Analysis and Resolution
Product Integration
Basic
Project
management
Organizational Process Performance
Quantitative Project Management
Requirements management
Project Planning
Project Monitoring and Control
Supplier Agreement Management
Measurement and Analysis
Process and Product Quality Assurance
Configuration Management
CMMI maturity evolution
% organizations
SCAMPI A result
SCAMPISM v1.1 Class A Appraisal Results
2006 End-Year Update 44.4%
March 2007
45
40
35
30
32.2%
25
20
15
2004
10
2005
5
0
L1
2006
11.2%
1.3%
2007
3.0%
L2
L3
2008
L4
L5
CMMI impact
Performance
Category
Cost
Schedule
Productivity
Quality
Customr Satisf.
ROI
Median Number
Improvt Data Pts
34%
29
50%
22
61%
20
48%
34
14%
7
4.0 : 1
22
Lowest Highest
Improvt Improvt
3%
87%
2%
95%
11%
329%
2%
132%
-4%
55%
1.7 : 1 27.7 : 1
Gibson. Goldenson, Kost, Performance Results of CMMI®-Based
Process Improvement, CMU/SEI-2006-TR-004
What’s a PSP?
•
•
•
•
•
•
The PSP is a self improvement paradigm based
on individual procedures and data
A small set of scripts, standards and forms
A simple but highly effective measurement
framework (size, time, defects)
Self management based on individual metrics
Fostering commitment to quality principles
It is a level 5 process for individuals
% Estimate Error
Time Estimating Accuracy - %
Error
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Max
Class
Min
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Program Number
9
1
STPP, Inc. data, 2005
Yield - All Students, All
Programs
120
Defects found BEFORE compile
Yield = Defects injected before compile
Yield %
100
80
Max
60
Avg
40
Min
Crossreviews
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Program Number
9 10 11
STPP, Inc. data, 2005
Defects
Test
data Found in Test - Range
300
Defects/KLOC
250
200
Max
62/KLOC
150
Avg
Min
24/KLOC
100
Crossreviews
50
2/KLOC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Program Number
9 10
STPP, Inc. data, 2005
PSP ROI
The following table shows projected integration and
system test (I&S) rework costs per KLOC for engineers
before and after PSP training.
Defects/KLOC into Unit Test
Yield for Unit Test
Defects/KLOC into I&S Test
I&S Defect fix time/KLOC
Before PSP After PSP
62
2
50%
50%
31
1
310
10
Integration and system test rework savings are 300 hours
per KLOC (training costs recovered in 4 weeks of work!)
What’s a TSP?
•
The Team Software Process uses the PSP principles to
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•
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Apply the PSP sound engineering discipline to project work
Form and help perform outstanding self directed teams
Produce an aggressive but realistic plan own by the team
Proactively track project progress against the plan
Continuously measure and improve the processes
To produce world class products
The TSP accelerates CMMI process maturation
The TSP is a level 5 process for small teams
The TSP starts with a project “launch”
What’s a launch?
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
1. Establish
product and
business
goals
4. Build topdown and
next-phase
plans
7. Conduct
risk
assessment
9. Hold
management
review
2. Assign roles
and define
team goals
5. Develop
the quality
plan
8. Prepare
management
briefing and
launch report
Launch
postmortem
3. Produce
development
strategy
and process
6. Build bottomup and
consolidated
plans
Impact of PSP/TSP
Average Effort Deviation - Range
Average Schedule Deviation - Range
120%
160%
100%
140%
80%
120%
100%
60%
80%
40%
60%
20%
40%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
Pre TSP/PSP
With TSP/PSP
Pre TSP/PSP
Defects/KLOC in Acceptance Test - Range
Post-Release Defects/KLOC - Range
0.9
1.4
0.8
1.2
0.7
0.6
1
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0
With TSP/PSP
0
Pre TSP/PSP
With TSP/PSP
Pre TSP/PSP
With TSP/PSP
The TSP strategy
is to improve
performance
from the bottom
up.
Team
Management
Team
Building
•
This strategy
starts with PSP
training.
Team
Member
Skills
Goal setting
Role assignment
Tailored team process
Detailed and balanced plans
Process discipline
Performance measures
Estimating and planning skills
Quality management skills
PSP
•
Team communication
Team coordination
Project tracking
Risk analysis
TSP
Building High-Performance
Teams
What’s a P-CMM ?
An organizational change model based on state-of-the-art workforce
practices to help organizations:
Develop workforce required to
execute business strategy
Characterize maturity of workforce
practices
Set priorities for improving workforce
capability
Integrate improvements in process
and workforce
Become an employer of choice
Curtis, Hefley, & Miller (2001)
A process enabler
Level of knowledge and
skills and process abilities
in the organization
The range of expected results that
can be achieved by consistently
following a process
CMMI - Builds
organizational
capability
TSP - Builds
quality products
on cost and
schedule
PSP - Builds
project team
skill & discipline
P-CMM – enables process capability
Process synergy
SEL: The experience factory
Project organization
Set goals
Choose process
Plan
Experience factory
Environment, project
characteristics
Tailoring
Processes, models
tools, components
Experience
base
Execute plan
Collect data
Data, lessons learned
Project/risk analysis
Packaging
From ‘The experimental paradigm in soft. eng.’,
Rombach, Basili, Selby, Springer-Verlag, 1994
PSP: The experience factory of one
PSP exercise
Set goals
Study process
Plan
Exercise
characteristics
PSP experience
Improvement
Process, model
tools, components
PSP elements,
data & reports
Execute plan
Collect data
Data, lessons learned
Immediate corrective
action
Post Mortem
Synergistic conditions
Leadership
Skills
Incentives Resources
Plan
Outcome
Improvement
Adapted from the SEI class: Managing the technological change
Conditions for success
Leadership
Skills
Incentives Resources
Plan
Outcome
Confusion
Anxiety
Slow change
Frustration
False starts
Adapted from the SEI class: Managing the technological change
The fifth synergy
PSP
TSP Exp. Fact. (CMMI L5)
5- Systems thinking (patterns)
4- Team learning (thinking together)
3- Building shared vision (TSP Launch)
2- Develop mental models (package pers. experience.)
1- Personal mastery (PSP measurement framework)
See Peter Senge. 1990. The Fifth Discipline. NY: Doubleday-Currency
The market
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IT global market expected to grow from
US$340B in 2005 to US$1.1T by 2010
Global sourcing expected to grow from
US$27B to US$165B in the same time frame
India fills up 28% of all IT global sourcing jobs
(4% now for Mexico – rank 9th in the world)
China, Russia, the Philippines, Turkey,
Thailand, Poland and Brazil compete
aggressively in this market
Source: Yvette Garcia, TSP symposium keynote, September 2008
The main competition: India-1
Over 600 software companies
• 2 Million graduates per year out of 7,000
colleges and 650 Universities
•Squeeze
400k engineers
a year
your metrics!
• Software development costs are roughly ¼ of
“Dear
customer,
those
in the US (salaries are about 1/8)
Our costs are within 5% of plan 95% of the time.
• IT embraced CMM level 5 in a big way, but…
Our schedules are within 2% of plan 95% of the time.
•Our
CMMI
level
5 field
reputation
error rate
in the
is less thanhas
100 eroded
defects/MLOC allowing
ussignificantly
to guarantee each LOC we write. Work with us!”
• What should be done?
•
The main competition: India-2
•
IT and IT Enabled Services (ITES)
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Employ more than 2.2M directly, 6M indirectly or 28%
of the world IT population (4% for Mexico *)
Are expected to create 200k jobs in 2006 (65k in 2008
for Mexico *)
Grow 28% a year (revenues growing at 32%/y)
Exports represent 25% of total exports
Accounts for 7% of GDP (2.3% in 2014 for Mexico *)
However, BPO (help desk) still represent 57% of
IT/ITES jobs
* Yvette Garcia, TSP symposium keynote, September 2008
The view from India
The Mexican strategy
Humphrey, Nichols, Certifying Software organizations
TSP symposium, September 2008
150,000 people PSP trained & certified by 2013
Yvette Garcia, TSP symposium keynote, September 2008
Conclusiones
Humble recommendations for Mexico
© Avantare Consultores S. A. de C. V. – Derechos Reservados
Recommendations-1
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Create an Info Tenoch institute
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Implementing the concepts of experience factory
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Partnerships of industry / business and tech academia /
Government for
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Web linked centers of excellence (IT Wickipedia in Spanish)
Emphasizing what already works, collecting and sharing data
Advising states and federal Governments
Facilitating the expansion of IT education
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Individual learning through PSP
Team performance improvement through TSP
Organization process improvement through CMMI
Increased competitiveness through lessons learned, models and
tools
Academic cooperation for curriculum development
Encouraging coops, internships and 2 way sabbaticals
Nurturing entrepreneurship for an independent Mexican IT
industry (including consulting)
Without forgetting psychological and cultural factors
Recommendations-2
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Expand PROSOFT to plan, finance, track and
celebrate the results of solid, long term
business based IT programs within
partnerships
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Applied to E-government and E-commerce
Including but not exclusively based on SEI material
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Agile methods
Model based systems engineering
Domain engineering and meta programming
Placing quantitative results over maturity level
Fostering moving up the food chain
Visibly rewarding companies and individuals for
verified achievements
Seed and lead, but then, get out of the way!
And to all of us: Let’s squeeze our metrics!
The last word
“ The qualityFive
of ayears from now,
I want the world to be
software system
asking,
is governed
by “How did
do it?”
the quality Mexico
of
the process used
to develop and
evolve it.”
—Watts Humphrey, 1986
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