Kolon Industries (120110 KS)

Transcription

Company Report
Kolon Industries
(120110 KS)
BUY (M) / TP: 110,000
1,
Re-rating likely in 2H
Kyu-won Hwang
kyuwon.hwang@ tongyang.co.kr
+822-3770-3564
1Q operating profit climbs 26% q-q to W96.1bn
 Kolon Ind reported 1Q consolidated sales of W1,330.9bn, operating profit of
W96.1bn (+25.6% q-q), and net profit of W71.8bn. Industrial materials and
chemicals did well, but fashion and film remained weak. One-off expenses fell
significantly from W30bn in 4Q to W4bn in 1Q.
 OP by division: chemical W25.5bn (vs W25bn in 4Q11), industrial materials
W19.4bn (vs W21.2bn), film W15.9bn (vs W15.6bn), fashion W16.8bn (vs
W28.1bn).
May 25, 2012
2Q operating profit to rise further to W108.7bn
KOREA
Chemical
 In 2Q, we expect Kolon to report W1,421.4bn in sales, W108.7bn in operating
profit (+13% q-q, assuming it pays W10bn in damages to Dupont), and
W68.7bn in net profit.
Share price (won, May 24)
63,900
Paid-in capital (Wbn)
139
Market cap (Wbn)
1,601
BPS (won)
54,395
Net debt to equity (%)
80.7
Shares outstanding
 The chemical division’s operating profit will likely remain flat on maintenance,
but industrial materials and fashion should lead earnings grow on strong
seasonality. The film division in particular should enjoy wider margins on
higher demand for optical and solar cell film.
27,823,698
Avg daily T/O (2M, Wbn)
7
Avg daily vol (2M, shrs)
100,350
52-week high (won)
126,000
52-week low (won)
55,200
Foreign ownership (%)
16.60
Major shareholders (%)
Kolon Corp & others 31.6
Stock performance (%)
Absolute
Relative
Abs (US$)
1M
3M
12M
(0.8)
(13.5)
(29.8)
7.4
(3.7)
(20.2)
(3.6)
(17.5)
(36.9)
Forecasts and valuations
FY ends Dec
Sales
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
5,110.0
5,420.1
5,692.2
6,149.0
6,537.6
6.1
5.0
8.0
6.3
Chg (% y-y)
(won)
(%)
140, 000
250
Reported OP
371.2
397.0
419.6
455.1
527.9
Adjusted OP*
371.2
402.2
419.6
455.1
527.9
200
NP, CI
224.7
323.1
278.5
297.4
352.8
150
EPS, CI (won)
12,010.1
13,192.5
11,115.2
11,870.6
14,081.4
120, 000
100, 000
80, 000
60, 000
100
40, 000
KOLON IND(LHS)
20, 000
50
Rel. to KOSPI(RHS)
0
May 2010
9.8
-15.8
6.8
18.6
P/E (x)
4.7
6.3
5.8
5.4
4.5
P/B (x)
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.5
5.8
6.2
5.6
4.7
ROA (%)
6.1
7.7
5.7
5.7
6.3
ROE (%)
17
21.2
15.1
14.2
14.8
Chg (% y-y)
0
May 2011
May 2012
Source: Datastream
(Wbn)
2010
Note: * Adjusted OP = reported OP (K-IFRS) – other operating profit/loss. CI = controlling interest
Source: TONGYANG Securities
www.tys.co.kr/english
TONGYANG Research
I. 1Q operating profit climbs 26% q-q to W96.1bn
Kolon’s 1Q results showed a solid recovery, in line with forecasts. Consolidated sales
came to W1,330.9bn, operating profit W96.1bn (+25.6% q-q), and net profit from
controlling interest W71.8bn. Operating profit rose 25.6% q-q from W76.5bn in 4Q.
1Q results remain solid
Consolidated operating
profit jumps 26% q-q
By division, chemical operating profit came to W25.5bn (vs W25.0bn in 4Q),
industrial materials W19.4bn (vs W21.2bn), film W15.9bn (vs W15.6bn), fashion
W16.8bn (vs W28.1bn) and core subsidiaries W17.5bn (W15.4bn). Core subsidiaries
include Kolon Nanjing (airbag, tire cord production in China), Kolon Fashion Material
(polyester, nylon thread), Kolon Glotech (car seats), and Kolon Plastics (POM).
Table 1. 1Q consolidated OP hits W96.1bn, vs W76.5bn in 4Q and our forecast of W96.2bn
(Wbn)
2011 (consolidated)
1Q
2Q
2012 (consolidated)
3Q
4Q
1Q
Full-year
2QE
3QE
4QE
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
1,481
1,557
1,278
1,447
1,331
1,421
1,365
1,575
3,241
5,763
5,692
6,149
Chemical
258
257
268
276
284
267
275
279
809
1,060
1,105
1,232
Industrial materials
159
171
177
180
180
200
213
202
560
687
796
787
Film
197
197
174
167
167
173
182
183
672
735
706
713
154
264
221
390
284
335
241
448
702
1,029
1,308
1,461
Sales
Fashion
Kolon Nanjing (100%)
29
36
44
42
47
47
48
63
0
150
209
219
Kol Fash Mat (100%)
164
169
158
150
152
160
158
152
0
641
622
660
Kolon Glotech (75.2%)
276
49
195
300
53
112
114
53
68
119
54
68
106
60
51
121
67
51
123
72
54
117
77
53
117
125
94
77
96
109
98
116
0
0
498
251
809
209
444
412
467
275
205
420
502
314
263
455
20
21
24
25
26
26
27
26
61
90
105
121
17
18
19
21
19
25
27
24
62
75
95
102
29
28
25
16
16
20
21
20
82
97
77
81
12
21
9
28
17
24
8
30
52
70
79
80
2
2
3
6
5
6
6
8
0
12
24
34
9
9
5
1
7
8
8
8
0
24
31
34
13
14
7
6
4
4
6
4
0
40
18
19
4
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
0
13
14
17
11
9
-1
-29
1
-8
-8
-8
0
-10
-24
-32
Kolon Plastic (70%)
Other
Operating profit
Chemical
Industrial materials
Film
Fashion
Kolon Nanjing (100%)
Kol Fash Mat (100%)
Kolon Glotech (75.2%)
Kolon Plastic (70%)
Other (incl legal exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Eq-meth gain (Wbn)
8
9
5
5
7
8
8
6
73
27
29
40
Net prof, CI (Wbn)
86
98
87
43
72
69
63
75
2  TONGYANG Securities Inc.
225
311
279
297
9,434
12,832
11,115
11,871
To boost solar cell PET film by 15K tpa by early
2013
To boost petroleum resin capacity by 30k tpa
To recognize W60.0bn in Dupont-related
expenses
To expand tire cord capacity in China by 10k
TPA
Assumes W10.0bn provisioning for Dupont
lawsuit
lawsuit
To add optical PET film capacity by 15k TPA
Regular maintenance for 50kT of petro resin in
April
lawsuit
Boosts airbag capacity in China from 6mn/yr to
12mn/yr
Boosts airbag capacity in Korea from
18mn/yr→ 24mn/yr
Incurs W4.0bn in DuPont lawsuit legal fee
Lists Kolon Fashion Material (100% subsidiary)
Kolon Plastic expands POM capacity by 30k tpa
Dupont lawsuit-related costs of W20bn
Boosts tire cord capacity by 120k tpa in China
Sells Kolon B&S
Lists Kolon Plastic (100% subsidiary)
Merges with Cambridge Kolon (listed May 17)
Boosts epoxy capacity by 15k tpa
Acquires subsidiary stakes to adopt holdco
structure
EPS (won/share)
Company Report
Earnings by division (see table 1 for details)
Chem OP up from
W25.0bn in 4Q to
W25.5bn in 1Q
Chemical operating profit came to W25.5bn in 1Q, similar to W25.0bn in 4Q.
Chemical facilities, including those for petroleum resin for industrial adhesive,
continued to operate at 100%. As seen in chart 1, the average petroleum resin price
fell modestly from US$2,890 in 4Q to US$2,827 in 1Q. Meanwhile, the price of
naphtha (which decides prices for key raw materials C5 and C9), rose 16% from
US$889 in 4Q to US$1,030 in 1Q. Kolon Ind passed increased material costs for
January~February on to product prices from March.
Industrial material OP
down from W21.2bn in
4Q to W19.4bn in 1Q.
Industrial material operating profit slipped 8% from W21.2bn in 4Q to W19.4bn in 1Q.
Domestic airbag and tire cord sales stagnated amid seasonal weakness for auto
production. In particular, airbag fabric ASP fell 6% from US$13,039/tonne in 4Q to
US$12,245/tonne in 1Q (chart 4); tire cord prices faced resistance, as Chinese and
Indian tire makers’ utilization rates were at the 70% level. As shown in chart 3, tire
cord prices slipped 5% from US$4,464/tonne in 4Q to US$4,255/tonne in 1Q.
Meanwhile, TPA and EG (key raw materials for tire cord) remained almost flat q-q,
meaning a modest drop in spread.
Film OP remains soft at
W15.9bn in 1Q vs
W15.6bn in 4Q
Film operating profit remained soft at W15.9bn in 1Q vs W15.6bn in 4Q. Operating
margin also stayed weak at 9.5% in 1Q vs 14.2% in 3Q and 9.4% in 4Q. High-margin
solar cell and optical PET film sales stagnated at the 4Q level. However, as lowmargin packaging PET film’s sales share rose, this contributed to stagnant operating
margin. As shown in chart 5, the average price of packaging, industrial, optical, and
solar cell PET films fell 7% from US$4,769 in 4Q to US$4,441 in 1Q.
Fashion OP plunges
from W28.1bn in 4Q to
W16.8bn in 1Q
Fashion operating profit plunged 40% q-q from W28.1bn in 4Q to W16.8bn in 1Q,
due to discounted sales of winter outdoor products. Over January~February, the
fashion division enjoyed robust high-priced product sales, but in March, nondiscounted sales of new products for spring missed forecasts due to abnormal
weather.
1Q one-off costs plunge
from W30bn~35bn in
4Q to W3.0~4.0bn in 1Q
One-off costs plunged vs W30bn~35bn in 4Q. In 4Q, Kolon Ind incurred W20.0bn in
legal fees related to the Dupont lawsuit. Also, it spent W10bn~15bn in year-end
bonus payments. In contrast, 1Q legal fees came to just W3.0bn~4.0bn.
No provisioning for
Dupont lawsuit in 1Q
Kolon did not do provisioning for the ongoing Dupont lawsuit in 1Q. Of the four
rulings (compensation, punitive fines, production suspension, and payment of legal
costs), the Virginia court has yet to rule on production suspension and payment of
legal costs. As a result, Dupont has not yet seized accrued accounts receivable on
Kolon’s exports to the US, but will be able to do so once the court rules. Kolon will
then start to set aside provisioning for the lawsuit.
TONGYANG Securities Inc.  3
Chart 1. Kolon Ind: petroleum resin product price
(U S$ /tonne)
2800
2600
(U S$ /tonne)
US$2,890 in
4Q11
3000
3 ,5 0 0
Petroleum resin export price
Phenolic rosin export price
US$3,110 in 4Q11
3 ,0 0 0
2400
2200
US$2,827 in 1Q12
2000
2 ,5 0 0
1800
1600
US$3,141 in 1Q12
2 ,0 0 0
1400
1200
1000
2 0 0 7 Jan
Chart 2. Kolon Ind: phenolic resin product price
1 ,5 0 0
2 0 0 9 Jan
2 0 1 1 Jan
2 0 0 7 Jan
2 0 0 9 Jan
2 0 1 1 Jan
Note: Used as material for industrial adhesive
Source: Korea International Trade Assoc (HS code: 3911-10-1000)
Note: Used for IT and commodity plastic
Chart 3. Kolon Ind: tire cord price
Chart 4. Kolon Ind: airbag price
(U S$ /tonne)
(U S$ /tonne)
5000
U S$ 4 ,4 6 4 in
1 8 ,0 0 0
4Q 11
1 6 ,0 0 0
US$13,309 in
4Q11
Airbag export price
1 4 ,0 0 0
4500
1 2 ,0 0 0
P E T tire c ord export pric e
1 0 ,0 0 0
4000
U S$ 4 ,2 5 5 in
8 ,0 0 0
1 Q 12
6 ,0 0 0
3500
US$12,245 in
1Q12
4 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0
3000
2 0 0 7 Jan
0
2 0 0 9 Jan
2 0 1 1 Jan
2 0 0 7 J an
2 0 0 9 Jan
2 0 1 1 J an
Note: Used as tire reinforcement
Note: Used in automobiles
Chart 5. Kolon Ind: PET film price
Chart 6. Dom dept store sporting good sales growth
(% y- y)
(U S $ /tonne)
U S $ 4 ,7 6 9 in
6 ,0 0 0
4Q 11
+2.3% y-y in Jan
2012
+5.1% y-y in Feb
+7.1% y-y in Mar
7.1% y-y in Apr
30
25
5 ,0 0 0
P E T film export
20
Department store sporting good
sales growh
4 ,0 0 0
15
3 ,0 0 0
10
U S $ 4 ,4 4 1 in
2 ,0 0 0
5
1 ,0 0 0
0
-5
0
2 0 0 7 J an
2 0 0 9 J an
2 0 1 1 Jan
Note: Used as optical, packaging, and industrial PET film
2 0 0 9 Jan
2 0 1 1 Jan
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy
Company Report
II. 2Q pre-provisioning OP to hit W110.0bn
2Q OP to rise 13% q-q
to W110.0bn
Kolon’s 2Q operating profit before provisioning for the Dupont lawsuit should recover
to W110.0bn. We forecast 2Q consolidated sales of W1.4tn, operating profit
W108.7bn (after W10.0bn in Dupont lawsuit-related expenses), and net profit from
controlling interest W68.7bn. Operating profit should jump 13% q-q (W96.1bn in 4Q).
Chemical operating
profit to stagnate on
regular maintenance
First, the chemical division, producing petroleum resin and other products, will likely
post stagnant operating profit of W26.4bn despite product price hikes, as it will
suspend petroleum resin production for about one month of maintenance at the Ulsan
plant in April, decreasing operating profit by W2.0bn~3.0bn.
Industrial material OP
to rise on seasonal
strength
Second, industrial material operating profit should rise to W25.1bn on seasonal
strength and lower raw material costs. As downstream auto and tire makers keep
utilization rates at 100%, this should be a boon to airbag fabric and tire-cord sales.
So far in 2Q, the prices of key raw materials EG and TPA have slipped about 7% q-q,
which we believe will help lift operating margin.
Optical PET film demand
reviving
Third, PET film operating profit is expected to recover to W19.9bn as demand for
optical and solar-cell PET film revived from mid-March. PET film ASP rose from
US$4,441/tonne in 1Q to US$4,600/tonne in April. As LED TV takes the place of LCD
TV, PET film use has increased by 30~40%. Display panel makers are enhancing the
picture quality of LED TV by using cheaper LED chips and more optical PET film.
Fashion division to
enjoy brisk sales of new
summer products given
hot weather
Fourth, the fashion division should enter peak season, when spring and summer
products are sold at non-discounted prices. Of note, over Apr~May 2012, the average
temperature was 2.4°C higher than a year ago, setting the stage for brisk sales of
new summer products. We estimate 2Q fashion operating profit at W24.3bn, up
W7.5bn vs W16.8bn in 4Q.
Hefty provisioning for
Dupont lawsuit unlikely
in 2Q
Fifth, Kolon is unlikely to set aside hefty provisioning for the Dupont lawsuit (Dupont
accused Kolon of violating trade secrets related to aramid) in 2Q. Currently, the
Virginia court continues to encourage the two parties to reach an accord. In these
circumstances, rulings on additional cases (Dupont filed additional suits claiming that
Kolon should suspend production of aramid and pay legal costs) have been delayed.
Moreover, Kolon did not appeal the decision on the Dupont antitrust case (on Apr 6,
the Virginia court dismissed Kolon’s antitrust suit against Dupont).
Table 2. Dupont and Kolon Ind’s aramid lawsuit
Period
2005
2006
Feb 2009
Apr 2009
Aug 2009
Mar 2010
Mar 2011
Nov 2011
Apr 2012
2Q12
Details
Kolon Ind completes para-aramid plant with capacity of 5m TPA
Kolon Ind employs Dupont’s former engineer, Michael Mitchell, to launch operations in US
Dupont files suit against Kolon Ind for violating trade secrets related to aramid
Kolon Ind files suit against Dupont for violating anti-trust law in US in Virginia court
Regarding Kolon’s suit vs Dupont for anti-trust in Mar 2009, Virginia court rules in favor of Dupont
Virginia court sentences Michael Mitchell to 18 months for unveiling Dupont’s trade secrets
US Court of Appeals for Federal Circuit orders retrial for nullity of Dupont’s anti-trust acts related to para-aramid in US
Virginia court finds Kolon Ind guilty of violating Dupont’s trade secrets related to aramid, rules that Kolon must pay Dupont W1tn
Virginia court dismisses Kolon’s suit against Dupont’s anti-trust acts
Virginia court encourages Kolon and Dupont to reach accord
Source: News release and Virginia court
III. Maintain BUY, target W110,000
Kolon Ind deserves
attention from 3Q
We maintain our view that Kolon Ind shares will reach W110,000 by end-2012, as; 1)
unlike other petrochem plays, Kolon Ind should enjoy improving operating conditions
in 2H; and 2) damages to be paid to Dupont could shrink, as the court is encouraging
Kolon and Dupont to reach an accord. We recommend paying attention to Kolon
shares from 3Q.
Global auto makers to
complete auto plants in
China in 2H, a boon for
auto material makers in
Asia
First, in 2H, regardless of the Chinese government’s stimulus, demand for auto
materials, especially in Asia, should recover faster than expected, as global auto
makers will complete auto plants in China mostly in 2H. In particular, the world’s top10 automakers had combined auto production capacity in China of 8.8mn units as of
end-2011. As shown in table 3, from Jun 2012, the top-10 automakers are set to
ramp up production capacity in China by a total of 1.97mn units, up 22% vs their
previous combined capacity: GM 800k , VW 300k, Hyundai Motor 300k, Ford 170k,
Toyota 170k, Fiat-Chrysler 140k, and Honda 100k. This means that demand for auto
materials, especially in Asia, should rise. Chart 7 shows chemical products used for
auto production.
Rising demand for auto materials will be a boon to Kolon Ind. The company produces
airbag fabric (ranks 5th~6th globally), tire cord (3rd globally), auto anti-UV PET film,
specialty plastic material used as interior materials (made subsidiary Kolon Plastic),
and auto sheet (made by subsidiary Kolon Glotech).
In 2H, Kolon Ind and
Dupont may reach
accord on lawsuit
Second, with respect to the Dupont lawsuit, Kolon Ind and Dupont may reach an
accord in 2H due to their respective interests. In particular, following the Nov 2011
ruling, if the case goes to a higher court, compensation for Dupont may shrink; while
Kolon would have to pay legal fees of W40.0bn per annum if the case continues. Also,
if the case goes to final trial in Korea after the US trials, this could take over five
years.
Kolon working to reach
accord with Dupont
In fact, Kolon Ind said it was working to reach an accord with Dupont during the
announcement of 1Q earnings on May 24. Moreover, Dupont’s CFO signaled the
possibility of the two parties reaching an accord within the year. If they ultimately
reach an accord, Kolon Ind’s P/B should rise from 0.8x at present to the five-year
average of 1.4x (W110,000 per share).
Chart 7. Chemical plastics make up 14% of auto materials
Table 3. Global automakers’ capacity in China
(‘000 units)
2011
GM
Ford
VW
Toyota
Honda
Nissan
Fiat
Total
2,365
467
2,080
820
770
1,030
240
8,802
2012
3,175
637
2,380
970
870
1,030
380
10,772
Chg
810
170
300
150
100
140
1,970
2013
2014
2015
3,195
637
2,930
970
890
1,515
650
12,417
3,745
1,027
3,230
970
890
1,515
650
13,657
4,070
1,227
3,350
1,280
1,010
1,815
1,050
15,532
Window- heat
resistance PET
film
Bumper - PP
Airbag
- nylon 6,6
Interior
material
- urethane
/ABS
Tire- synthetic rubber/reinforcement material
Source: Marklines
Company Report
Table 4. Target price set at W110,000, even assuming Kolon Ind pays the entire damages to DuPont
(Wbn)
May 26
Details
5,064
(+) Operations
Division
OP
Deprec
▶Chemical
Parent
114
34
149
6.5x
▶Ind mat
Parent
105
22
126
6.9x
871
▶Film
Parent
143
19
162
8.5x
1,375
▶Fashion
Parent
98
25
123
6.6x
812
▶Kolon Nanjin
100
25
5
30
6.9x
208
▶Kolon Fashion Mat
100
35
5
40
5.0x
200
▶Kolon Glotech
75.2
23
11
34
6.0x
154
▶Kolon Plastic
70.0
22
2
24
7.8x
133
42
6
48
7.1x
345
633
129
764
6.8x
5,064
▶Other
Total
362
(+) Asset value
Assets
Stake (%) NAV (2011)
P/B (x)
EBITDA Targ mult (x)
966
Fair value
Note
(Wbn)
SKC Kolon PI
50.0
99
0.7x
67
Flexible PCB film maker (unlisted)
Hana Capital
29.1
61
1.1x
67
Lender (unlisted)
Capro
19.9
182
1.1x
175
Other
53
1.0x
53
Total
411
0.9x
362
(-) Net debt
1,514
Total debt
1,737 Consolidated debts of W1,668bn + preferred shares W69bn
223
Cash & equivalents
Fair value (EBITDA x
target multiple x stake (%, Wbn))
Stake (%)
Nylon material caprolactam
7,955,218 shares × W31,500
Pre-provisioning common
shares (A)
3,911
Contingent debt related to
Dupont lawsuit
104.9 ▶Court orders Kolon Ind to pay DuPont W1.05tn in damages for violating trade secrets in Nov 2011
Post-provisioning common
shares (A’)
2,862
Shrs out (B)
Per share value (A’/B)
maker
(listed)
-
25,790k = 24,302,211 shares out + 2,078,974 shares from conversion of BWs - 594,211 treasury shares
W110,000
Kolon Industries (120110 KS) pro forma financial statements (K-IFRS, consolidated)
Statement of financial position
FY to Dec (Wbn)
Statement of comprehensive income
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2,436
2,559
2,813
2,983
3,137
FY to Dec (Wbn)
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
Sales
5,110
5,420
5,692
6,149
Investment in affiliate
179
192
220
260
6,538
302
Cost of sales
3,799
4,036
4,257
4,598
LT financial assets
233
244
244
4,850
244
244
Gross profit
1,311
1,384
1,435
1,551
1,856
1,966
1,688
2,160
2,290
2,400
SG&A
940
982
1,015
1,096
121
1,160
43
77
81
85
Reported op prof
371
397
420
455
528
1,601
2,239
2,495
2,654
2,918
Adjusted op prof
371
402
420
455
528
Cash & equivalent
147
231
185
204
276
Other op prof/loss
0
-9
0
0
0
ST financial assets
142
19
19
19
19
Non-operating prof
-90
-49
-43
-47
-44
Accts rec & other
627
869
1,012
1,068
1,148
Interest income
Inventory
643
824
957
1,010
1,086
Interest expense
42
296
322
353
388
Total assets
4,038
4,798
5,308
5,637
6,055
Non-current liabilities
1,144
949
996
956
919
856
733
733
673
613
Pre-tax from cont op
Non-current assets
Tangible assets
Other non-current
Current assets
Other current
LT financial liabilities
Other non-current liab
Forex gain/loss
Equity-meth gain/loss
Other
4
6
9
10
11
104
92
97
97
97
5
2
5
0
0
25
27
29
40
42
-22
4
11
0
0
281
348
377
408
484
249
168
215
235
258
Income tax
36
64
87
99
117
1,438
2,057
2,263
2,356
2,478
Net profit
245
339
290
309
367
Accts payable & other
727
683
823
869
934
225
323
279
297
353
ST financial liabilities
567
950
966
955
945
Total comprehensive inc
245
335
290
309
367
TCI for controlling int
225
317
279
297
353
562
552
528
578
651
-125
-382
34
185
237
Current liabilities
Other current
NP for controlling int
144
425
474
533
599
Total liabilities
2,582
3,006
3,259
3,312
3,396
EBITDA
Equity for controlling int
1,319
1,723
1,969
2,233
2,552
Free cash flow
Paid-in capital
131
139
139
139
139
EPS
12,010
13,193
11,115
11,871
14,081
Capital surplus
719
921
921
921
921
Book value/share
50,323
66,952
75,734
85,218
96,694
Retained earnings
206
668
914
1,178
1,497
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
137
69
80
92
106
26,582
20,445
18,980
20,786
23,394
Total equity
1,456
1,792
2,049
2,325
2,658
Net debt
1,134
1,432
1,494
1,404
1,262
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2011
2014E
292
326
358
461
492
Gross margin (%)
Net profit
245
339
290
309
367
Depreciation & amortization
191
150
109
123
123
0
-2
-5
0
0
-25
0
-29
-40
-42
-182
-261
-97
-33
-56
Equity for non-control int
Cash flow statement
FY to Dec (Wbn)
Operating cash flow
Affiliate invest gain/loss
Other
Investing cash flow
Disp (acq) of tangible asst
Inc (dec) in ST/LT finl liab
2012E
2013E
25.7
25.5
25.2
25.2
25.8
Operating margin (%)
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.4
8.1
Net margin (%)
4.8
6.3
5.1
5.0
5.6
11.0
10.2
9.3
9.4
10.0
Sales (% y-y)
6.1
5.0
8.0
6.3
Operating profit (% y-y)
8.3
4.3
8.5
16.0
38.2
-14.4
6.8
18.6
9.8
-15.8
6.8
18.6
-1.8
-4.3
9.5
12.6
EBITDA margin (%)
2010
-61
-39
39
30
35
-218
-291
-240
-219
EPS (% y-y)
-257
-388
-300
-250
-230
EBITDA (% y-y)
-17
-6
0
0
0
ROE (%)
17.0
21.2
15.1
14.2
14.8
-133
151
0
0
0
ROA (%)
6.1
7.7
5.7
5.7
6.3
Accts rec turnover (x)
8.5
7.4
6.1
6.0
6.0
Inventory turnover (x)
8.0
7.4
6.4
6.3
6.2
Other
Financing cash flow
FY to Dec
-383
Inc (dec) in intang asst
Inc (dec) in ST/LT finl asst
EBITDA/share
Valuation
Forex translation gain/loss
Inc (dec) in net working cap
Dividend/share
Net profit (% y-y)
25
26
9
10
11
167
1
-113
-201
-200
-148
98
17
-71
-70
P/E (x)
4.7
6.3
5.8
5.4
4.5
315
14
0
0
0
P/B (x)
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
-1
-32
-33
-34
-34
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.5
5.8
6.2
5.6
4.7
1
-79
-97
-97
-97
Div yield (com shr, %)
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
76
76
-46
19
73
Debt-to-equity (%)
177.4
167.8
159.1
142.5
127.8
76
160
236
190
209
Net debt-to-equity (%)
77.9
79.9
72.9
60.4
47.5
152
236
190
209
281
Net fin cost/sales (%)
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
OP/financing cost (x)
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.7
5.5
Inc (dec) in equity
Dividend payout
Others
Inc (dec) in cash & eq
Beginning cash & equiv
Ending cash & equiv
Note: EPS, BPS, P/E and P/B are based on controlling interest
For valuation metrics such as P/E, historical figures are based on annual averages, estimates on current price
For ROA or ROE, assets and equity are averages of end-of-year figures for given year and year prior
Data to 2010 based on K-GAAP and from 2011, K-IFRS
Company Report
Kolon Industries (120110 KS) ratings and target price history
Date
Rating
TP (won)
2012/04/06
BUY
110,000
2012/01/31
BUY
110,000
2012/01/05
BUY
110,000
2011/11/23
BUY
160,000
2011/11/15
BUY
160,000
2011/10/10
BUY
160,000
2 0 ,0 0 0
2011/09/20
BUY
160,000
0
2011/07/05
BUY
160,000
2011/05/24
BUY
130,000
2011/02/15
BUY
100,000
(won)
1 8 0 ,0 0 0
1 6 0 ,0 0 0
C urrent pric e
T arget pric e
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
8 0 ,0 0 0
6 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0
J un 2 0 1 0
D ec 2 0 1 0
J un 2 0 1 1
D ec 2 0 1 1
Disclosures & disclaimers
This research report has been prepared for informational purposes only; it does not constitute an offer or a
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. The information and data
contained in this report have been obtained from sources we consider reliable; however, we make no
representation that the information provided in this report is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on
as such. The recipient of this report should use his/her independent judgment regarding the sale or purchase of
any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. We disclaim any liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is for our clients only. It is
copyrighted material and may not be reproduced, transmitted, quoted, or distributed in any manner without the
prior written consent of TONGYANG Securities Inc.
As of the publication date of this report, TONGYANG Securities Inc. does not own a stake in excess of 1%, nor
does it have any interest whatsoever, in the subject company (ies). The material contained herein was not
disclosed by TONGYANG Securities Inc. to any institutional investors or third parties prior to its publication. The
analyst (s) of this report or the analyst (s)’ spouse does not have any financial interest in the securities of the
subject company (ies) mentioned herein, nor financial interest of any nature related to the subject company (ies)
(including without limitation, whether it consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position), as of
the publication date of this report.
Analyst certification
I/We, as the research analyst/analysts who prepared this research report, do hereby certify that the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal views about the subject securities discussed in this
report.
Stock and sector ratings
 Stock ratings include an Investment Rating (Buy, Hold, Sell) as well as a Volatility Risk Rating (High, Low)
that are based on the expected absolute return of a stock over the next 6 -12 months.
- Buy: Low Risk if a stock is expected to return 10% or more; High Risk if a stock is expected to return 20% or
more
- Hold: Low Risk if a stock is expected to return between -10 and +10%; High Risk if a stock is expected to
return between -20 and +20%
- Sell: Low Risk if a stock is expected to decline by 10% or more; High Risk if a stock is expected to fall by
20% or more
 Sector ratings suggest 6 to 12 - month forward investment weighting of a given sector compared to its
market capitalization weighting.
- Overweight: Investment weighting is higher than the market capitalization weighting
- Neutral: Investment weighting is equal to the market capitalization weighting
- Underweight: Investment weighting is lower than the market capitalization weighting
TONGYANG Securities International Network
Seoul
Head Office
TONGYANG Securities Building
Euljiro 76 Jung-gu
Seoul, Korea 100-845
Tel: +822-3770-3454
Corporate website: www.tys.co.kr/english
Hong Kong
TONGYANG Securities Hong Kong Limited
Unit 3208-09, 32/F, Alexandra House
18 Chater Road, Central, Hong Kong
Tel: +852-3980-6000
New York
150 East 52nd Street
25th Floor New York
NY 10022, U.S.A.
Tel: +1-212-415-1008
Tokyo
803-3-4-1, Shin-Kokusai Building
Maronouchi, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, Japan 100-0005
Tel: +81-3-6269-9720
Ho Chi Minh
Suite 2905, Saigon Trade Center
37 Ton Dou Thang Street
District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tel: +84-8-910-6711
Manila
TONGYANG Savings Bank
Ground Floor, Chantham House
116 Valero Corner, Herrera Street
Salcedo Village, Makati City
Metro Manila, Philippines
Tel: +63-2-845-3838
Phnom Penh
#138, Norodom Boulevard
Sangkat Tonle Bassac
Khan Chamkarmorn
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Tel: +855-23-224-125
Research Center
TONGYANG Securities Building
#32 Gookjegeumyoongro 2-gil
Youngdeungpo-gu, Seoul, Korea
Tel: +822-3770-3436

Kolon Industries (120110 KS)

Transcription

Similar documents

The Key to Managing Risk Maintenance Directorate of the

2015-June - MidWest America Federal Credit Union

Dupont Current, August 27, 2014 - Dupont Circle Citizens Association

Map of Site 1 – Lyndale Farmstead Park

Bandyke Moving Pictures

Kolon Plastics (138490 KS)

Greater Cincinnati Water Works Filter Distribution

Join us for a free screening of First Generation —

Film quiz 12 May 2011

Dupont - Lutheran Health Network