Retail Market Analysis

Transcription

RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
CITY OF LYNDEN
PREPARED FOR:
CITY OF LYNDEN
AMY HARKSELL
PLANNING DIRECTOR
CITY OF LYNDEN
323 FRONT STREET
LYNDEN, WASHINGTON 98264
PREPARED BY:
PITNEY BOWES MAPINFO
24 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DRIVE
SUITE #1700, LOBBY H
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN 48106
(734) 930-4700
FUNDED IN PART BY THE PORT OF BELLINGHAM
AUGUST 2008
PB #B7280001 (JK)
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
CITY OF LYNDEN
PAGE
I.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................... 1
II.
BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY........................................................... 5
III.
LOCATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................ 9
IV.
TRADE AREAS ............................................................................................... 23
V.
CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................. 27
APPENDICES
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Scenario Comparison for Lynden, Washington
Local Trade Area (LTA) Map
Regional Trade Area (RTA) Map
Summary Demographic Benchmark Report (Local Trade Area)
Socioeconomic Benchmark Report (Local Trade Area)
Summary Demographic Benchmark Report (Regional Trade Area)
Socioeconomic Benchmark Report (Regional Trade Area)
Population and Demographic Characteristic Maps
Potential Additional Tenant List
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The city of Lynden is located in the northwestern corner of Washington state, approximately
12 miles north of Bellingham, Washington and 8 miles south of Aldergrove, British Columbia.
This community offers its residents small-town appeal and strong regional access within
Whatcom County (provided by Guide Meridian Road – a major corridor between Canada and
Bellingham). Further benefiting the city is its Dutch-inspired heritage, which makes it a regional
tourist destination. Lynden, therefore, has the potential to capture sales dollars that would
otherwise be spent elsewhere: it is in a position to serve the retail needs of its own residents
and the residents of the surrounding communities (i.e., Sumas, Nooksack, and Everson).
Because Lynden is both a tourist destination and regional hub within Whatcom County, it has
the opportunity to attract consumers for non-retail reasons (e.g., banking, visiting a library,
attending cultural events). Though Lynden has a comparatively vibrant downtown,
Pitney Bowes MapInfo finds that the downtown area is still underutilized, and that the city can
do more to capitalize on its strengths to drive retail traffic. With improved marketing, an
alteration to the current hours of operation (primarily the tendency to be closed on Sundays),
and better signage, Lynden has the potential to increase the number of retail dollars that are
captured within the city.
Lynden, Washington
Page 1
The primary purpose of this analysis is to determine the amount of retail space that Lynden can
support both now and in five years. Most of the retail demand for the community will likely occur
either within the city limits or just outside of them. Currently, there are four retail districts within
the city: the downtown area, Fairway Center, Bender Plaza, and the Guide Meridian/Birch BayLynden Road intersection. The goals of this analysis are: to evaluate the retail needs and
preferences of trade area residents; and to provide a quantitative analysis of actual retail
supportability in Lynden that can be used to develop a strategy for retail recruitment and
retention.
Lynden has numerous advantages for retail development, including land availability, north/south
regional and national accessibility, and strongly positive demographic characteristics (i.e., per
capita income, medium household income, percentage of owner-occupied homes, and
population and household growth rates – all above the state average). Furthermore, Lynden city
officials and residents are willing to maintain and encourage retail growth and development
within the city.
Several factors bolster Lynden’s retail attractiveness, but there are also challenges to retail
development in this market. One of the most significant is its size: most national-chain retailers
do not locate in cities with population levels that are similar to Lynden’s. Compounding this
issue is Lynden’s proximity to Bellingham, which is the primary retail destination in northwestern
Washington and which serves as the major retail hub between metropolitan Seattle and
Vancouver, British Columbia.
During the course of our fieldwork and data collection, several local residents and business
owners were interviewed and asked what, in their opinion, is needed in Lynden. These informal
surveys indicated that the most sought-after retail type is apparel (women’s, men’s, children’s,
and shoes). The leakage to surrounding communities – specifically Bellingham – is
considerable. Lynden has the opportunity to capture more of the retail sales potential from its
own residents by adding apparel shopping opportunities where feasible.
Lynden, Washington
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Pitney Bowes MapInfo has prepared estimates on the amount of additional new retail square
footage that Lynden can support. These estimates are broken down into three forecasts:
•
2008 Status Quo – an estimate based on the existing retail and economic conditions
in 2008
•
2013 Conservative – a 2013 estimate that assumes that the existing conditions
trend out normally over the next five years
•
2013 Aggressive – an estimate that assumes an improving retail climate from the
addition of new retailers (who would create retail synergy) and/or an improved retail
environment based on new programs or initiatives implemented by the city
The following table shows the additional supportable square footage for Lynden retail:
Additional Supportable Square Footage in Lynden
Category
Apparel
Women’s Apparel Store
Men’s Apparel Store
Children’s/Teen’s Apparel Store
Shoe Store
Jewelry Store
Sub-Total for Apparel
Appliance/Electronics Store
Automotive Parts/Repair Shop
Book/Music Store
Computer/Software Store
Pharmacy/Drug Store
Nursery/Garden Center
Home Furnishings Store
Liquor Store
Pet/Pet Supplies Store
Sporting Goods Store
Toy/Hobby Store
Total Additional Supportable Square-Footage
2008
Status Quo
2013
Conservative
2013
Aggressive
7,700
6,000
2,000
3,000
500
19,200
2,500
1,800
500
1,200
4,000
2,800
10,500
650
5,600
2,800
1,100
9,250
7,500
2,500
4,000
750
24,000
3,000
2,500
750
1,500
5,000
4,000
12,750
850
6,750
3,250
1,500
10,500
8,500
3,000
5,500
1,000
28,500
3,600
4,000
1,250
2,000
6,000
6,000
15,000
1,000
7,500
4,000
2,200
52,650
65,850
81,050
Lynden, Washington
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It is not recommended that all of this additional square footage be provided by new competition
into the market; rather, there are certain categories in which it would be more prudent to have
existing retailers expand their stores and/or merchandise lines. (For example, downtown’s
Katz Coffee & Used Books could expand its bookstore.) Recommendations will be given in
greater detail in Section V, Conclusions.
While Lynden’s demographic characteristics, housing and population growth, and favorable
retail climate will attract additional retail development, the city must also proactively work to
retain businesses. This effort may include assisting businesses with marketing and community
promotions, encouraging strong building-maintenance programs (providing monetary assistance
when appropriate), and continuing infrastructure improvements to enhance and beautify the
existing retail districts. Additionally, a concerted effort must be made to educate residents on the
city’s wide variety of quality retail offerings and on the importance of shopping where one lives.
Anecdotally, many residents we spoke to mentioned that one cannot buy socks or underwear in
Lynden; in actuality, The Dresser Drawer has a decent selection of both.
The city of Lynden, as well as other retail stakeholders (as defined in Section V, Conclusions),
will need to work to create promotional campaigns, beautify the retail areas, and assist the
retailers in attracting both local and visitor dollars.
Lynden, Washington
Page 4
II. BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Background
Pitney Bowes MapInfo was commissioned by the city of Lynden to develop a strategic plan for
the recruitment and retention of retail within the city. Pitney Bowes MapInfo assessed the city
and its surrounding market area in order to determine what, if any, new retail development
would be supportable and what steps the city needs to take to make its retail (both new and
extant) more viable.
The following specific issues were addressed as part of this study:
•
Is additional retail development within Lynden viable?
•
To whom would this retail appeal?
•
What type of retail should be attracted? In particular, should the proposed retail
component have a neighborhood, specialty, or regional appeal, or a mix?
•
What types of retail are supportable and where in the city should they locate?
The results of this analysis are based upon the following assumptions:
•
Housing and population growth will occur as projected herein.
•
No new retail or commercial development will occur unless mentioned in this report.
•
Infrastructure changes will be made to the relevant access routes in order to ensure
ease of access and improved mobility throughout the study area.
•
The retail establishments will operate in a manner consistent with successful retailing,
including remaining open during hours that are convenient to potential customers,
maintaining clean facilities and streetscaping, and applying visual merchandising.
Lynden, Washington
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While Pitney Bowes MapInfo evaluated several different retail categories in this market analysis,
certain types of retail were not addressed as part of this study. These include, but are not limited
to, service retail (e.g., banks, financial planners, drycleaners), hotels and motels, and
automobile dealerships. These retail types follow different site-location strategies and were
beyond the scope of our analysis.
Methodology
In March 2008, a detailed field evaluation of retail in the study area and major shopping centers
in and surrounding the defined trade areas was conducted in an effort to address the above
issues. During this evaluation, Pitney Bowes MapInfo thoroughly drove throughout the market,
visiting and evaluating the major existing and planned retail concentrations.
We then defined Lynden’s trade areas based on the field evaluation and on information
provided by the client. Population and demographic characteristics were collected by census
tract and were updated based on Pitney Bowes MapInfo demographic data1 and on information
gathered from various local sources. This study assumes that all local data are accurate and
reliable.
Finally, based on the population and demographic characteristics of the trade area, known
existing retail competition, and traffic and retail gravitational patterns, we developed our
quantitative assessment for the retail in Lynden. To determine which retail categories are
under-represented, this assessment incorporated the existing square footages for a variety of
retail categories, the expenditure potential for each retail category, and the growth of the area.
The expenditure potential refers to the total dollar amount that is expected to be available for
each retail category (as published by the U.S. Census Bureau; supplemented by data from
Pitney Bowes MapInfo2). For any given retail category, expenditure potential will not increase as
more competitors are introduced into a market; rather, the market share for each unit will be
1
Pitney Bowes MapInfo demographic, psychographic, and business data are updated annually by Pitney Bowes MapInfo
demographers. All primary source data originate from U.S. Census data but are augmented with other data sources
(e.g., housing statistics, post office data, consumer spending documents, financial transactions, media purchases)
and are grown out to provide an accurate current-year forecast and five-year projection.
2
Pitney Bowes MapInfo demographic, psychographic, and business data are updated annually by Pitney Bowes MapInfo
demographers. All primary source data originate from U.S. Census data but are augmented with other data sources
(e.g., housing statistics, post office data, consumer spending documents, financial transactions, media purchases)
and are grown out to provide an accurate current-year forecast and five-year projection.
Lynden, Washington
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redistributed. Expenditure potential increases as population and household income levels grow.
By calculating the proportion of the area’s expenditure potential that is already accounted for by
existing and planned retail, the retail categories that have sufficient potential remaining can be
determined. This methodology assumes that there is no “over-storing” in a market; in other
words, each retail category will approach the limit of its expenditure potential but will not go
beyond it.
When calculating trade area retail expenditure potential, it is assumed that there are always
some sales that originate from beyond the trade area boundaries. The number of sales
generated from beyond the trade area will vary between retail categories and is dependent on
the drawing power of the retailer. Neighborhood- and convenience-based retail will have a
greater proportion of its sales coming from within the trade area than will a larger-format
operator that is capable of drawing customers from farther away. Furthermore, beyond sales
potential will also vary based on the community’s visitor draw and levels of seasonal population.
Ultimately, the retail potential of any category is dependent upon how much of the overall sales
potential an operator in Lynden could be expected to capture, which, in turn, is dependent upon
the existence and proximity of competition.
Lynden, Washington
Page 7
III. LOCATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
This section includes a description of the existing locational characteristics of Lynden. It begins
with a detailed list of the existing demographic and psychographic characteristics of the city and
surrounding area, and is followed by an overview of the area’s accessibility and a description of
the existing retail environment. This section concludes with an examination of the existing
competitive forces that surround Lynden and their effect on retail viability.
Demographic Characteristics
Several factors contribute to the overall viability of retail within Lynden. Elements like
demographic characteristics, shopping patterns, and history have significant roles in defining the
retail environment. Of these elements, housing and demographic characteristics are the most
important and are most commonly noted by national retail operators.
The table below displays a comparison of selected characteristics that are most commonly used
by retailers to compare specific cities and regions. Demographic and population figures have
been included for: Lynden’s local and regional trade areas (outlined in Section IV, Trade Areas);
the jurisdictional boundaries of Lynden, Blaine, Birch Bay, Ferndale, and Bellingham;
Whatcom County; the state of Washington; and the United States.
As indicated in the table below, Lynden has the highest medium household income of the
selected cities, and its population count is second only to Bellingham’s. Additionally, Lynden has
experienced a strong, 3.5% annual growth rate for the last five years (2002-2007)3. The median
age is higher because an older population is purchasing many of those new homes and condos
that are associated with the Homestead Farms Golf Resort. These retired or soon-to-be-retired
households, with high levels of home ownership and fewer family financial obligations, often have
the benefit of larger levels of disposable income. This population is currently a relatively stable
one, but as it ages, disposable income levels will decrease.
3
Source: The Whatcom Council of Governments
Lynden, Washington
Page 9
2007
Population
2007
Per Capita
Income
2007
Medium
Household
Income
2000
% OwnerOccupied
Housing
2007
Median
Age
Lynden LTA
17,650
$23,409
$50,118
67%
36.2
Lynden RTA
47,420
$24,342
$48,069
58%
37.4
Geography
Trade Areas
City (Jurisdictional Boundary)
Lynden
11,150*
$25,638
$48,237
67%
38.5
Blaine
4,650*
$23,668
$41,594
54%
39.0
Birch Bay
5,852
$28,809
$45,313
79%
44.3
Ferndale
10,540*
$21,289
$41,502
66%
33.2
Bellingham
75,220*
$23,218
$36,288
48%
31.5
188,300*
$24,287
$43,508
63%
35.4
6,488,000*
$27,910
$49,793
65%
36.7
302,000,000
$27,000
$45,800
67%
36.6
Other Regions
Whatcom County
Washington
United States
Source: Pitney Bowes MapInfo data (2007), *Whatcom Council of Governments
PSYTE Cluster (Lifestyle) Data
Lifestyle characteristics are a valuable source of information for projecting consumer spending
habits and patterns on a block-group level. PSYTE Advantage4, a proprietary system of
Pitney Bowes MapInfo, gathers data based on consumer expenditures and then determines the
similarities between relevant demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and what people
are buying. This methodology provides more in-depth measurement than the study of
demographic characteristic data alone. For example, a $40,000 income in Lynden will provide a
different lifestyle than a $40,000 income in Seattle or Spokane will. Further, two people with
similar incomes who both reside in Lynden may choose different neighborhoods based on their
preferences. The premise here is that people tend to reside in neighborhoods with others whom
they believe are similar to them (“clusters”).
By understanding these clusters and their effects, generalizations about people’s buying habits
can be developed, thus enabling retailers to target areas that will contain their best customers.
PSYTE segments have been developed on national and regional bases, and while one
community may include several different clusters, there is no single cluster that is specific to a
4
PSYTE Advantage clustering is a Pitney Bowes MapInfo product that sorts every neighborhood in the United States
into 72 mutually exclusive categories, called “clusters.” Descriptive names and capsule summaries capture each
cluster’s distinct demographic characteristics and neighborhood flavor.
Lynden, Washington
Page 10
single neighborhood or community. In order to describe similar groups of people, these
descriptions are, by necessity, stereotypical and do not specifically describe Lynden’s residents.
Based on the Pitney Bowes MapInfo PSYTE Advantage neighborhood clustering database, the
predominant lifestyle segmentation group in the Lynden local trade area (LTA) is
Family Acres (54%), followed by Cruisin’ Couples (18%), Retirement Horizons (14%),
Exurban Refuge (10%), and Outback U.S.A. (4%). Descriptions of these clusters are as follows:
Family Acres – Once upon a time, the land was cheap and
kids were cheaper by the dozen. The rural families in this
cluster live in larger, older homes — nearly 80% in
owner-occupied homes that were built in the 60s, 70s, and
80s. Most householders finished high school, and nearly 20%
of women took some college courses. A high proportion (96%)
is white, non-Hispanic. Householders aged 45 to 64 predominate, as younger families have
most likely left for greener pastures. Family income is an average $61,000, derived primarily
from manual occupations and some farming.
Cruisin’ Couples – Pre-retirement and newly retired couples
can look forward to the next twenty years, thanks to better
health and health care. However, this cluster’s incomes are
bimodal: some have adequate finances while others will have
more of a struggle. Most will try to make the best of it with their
average family incomes of $79,000, but much of that is
discretionary in a cluster with the second-highest index for home-ownership without a mortgage.
They also index high on income from interest-bearing accounts and dividends from investments.
Ethnicity is more than 90% white, non-Hispanic.
Retirement Horizons – Here are the Baby Boomers who are
contemplating retirement — or perhaps not, depending on their
financial resources. The older skew in this cluster takes off
around age 55. These married, empty-nest couples are
college-educated dual-earners who are looking forward to
Lynden, Washington
Page 11
retirement, seeing as many of their neighbors are already kicking back and scaling down their
spending. With a 70:30 owner-to-renter ratio, many of these couples are beginning to cut their
expenses for the long term. Over 90% are white, non-Hispanic. Mean family income is $74,000.
True to form, boomers are likely to set new retirement lifestyle trends. Maybe they will just fade
away (but don’t bet on it).
Exurban Refuge – This "beyond suburbia" cluster represents
older, non-family households beyond the towns that ring the
suburban fringe. Their 65:35 owner-to-renter ratio indicates a
substantial retirement segment that is contentedly aging in
place. Fully 98% are native U.S. citizens and white, nonHispanic. Their $32,000, below-average income is likely the
main reason that they don't move to Florida or Arizona in the winter, though they may just be
content right where they are.
Outback U.S.A. – Sometimes the most affordable housing is
found in rural areas of America. Young families with and
without children, as well as singles, head for Outback U.S.A.,
which may be near a metro area, but is more characteristically
in areas that range from rural to wilderness. Primarily highschool educated with some college, members of this cluster
typically work with their hands and earn a moderate, $47,000 average household income. Over
80% are white, non-Hispanic.
Access
Retailing in Lynden benefits from the good north/south regional accessibility that is provided by
Guide Meridian Road (State Highway 539). With a U.S. point-of-entry located where
Guide Meridian Road meets the U.S.-Canadian border (approximately 4 miles north), this road
also serves as a major route for Canadians who are heading south to Bellingham.
Guide Meridian Road, which is a two-lane highway that connects to I-5 (approximately 12 miles
south, near the Bellis Fair Mall in Bellingham) and to the Trans-Canada Highway (approximately
Lynden, Washington
Page 12
11 miles north), has an average daily traffic count of 16,000 (south of Front Street)5. It is in the
process of being widened to a four-lane, divided highway; construction is expected to be
completed in 2009.
Lynden also has good east-west access, albeit not as strong as its north-south access. Badger
Road (State Highway 546), a two-lane highway that runs from Blaine to just south of Sumas,
has an average daily traffic count of 9,100 at its intersection with Guide Meridian Road6. South
of Badger Road is Birch Bay-Lynden Road, a two-lane highway that connects Lynden (at Guide
Meridian Road) to Birch Bay (at I-5), approximately 8 miles to the west.
Within the city itself, Lynden has a well-established road network and a gridded downtown. The
streets of Lynden have been well maintained, with recent reconfigurations along Main Street to
improve safety and flow. Access to downtown is provided by Front Street from the west
(average daily traffic count of 10,0007) and Grover Street/Vinup Road to the east. Both streets
connect directly to larger regional roads, providing good access between downtown Lynden and
outside communities. With these primary access routes, the city of Lynden is in a position to
serve the retail needs of not only its own residents, but also residents of the surrounding
communities – especially Sumas, Nooksack, and Everson. Moreover, with its nearby access to
a U.S.-Canada border point, Lynden can capture customers traveling into the United States.
Existing Retail Environment
Overall, within the Lynden LTA (as defined in Section IV, Trade Areas), there are approximately
770,000 square feet of occupied retail space. This includes all the existing retail within and just
beyond the city. In the regional trade area (RTA), this number increases to 1,034,000 square
feet. The RTA extends west to Birch Bay and Blaine, and east to Sumas and Everson.
5
Source: State of Washington Department of Transportation, Annual Traffic Report 2006.
6
Idem.
7
Source: Whatcom Council of Governments, Traffic Data, 2007.
Lynden, Washington
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Pitney Bowes MapInfo has defined five distinct retail districts in Lynden and has assigned a
descriptive name for each (to be used throughout this report). While these retail districts do not
account for all retail locations within the city, they are the main areas that warrant discussion.
•
Downtown Lynden – This retail district incorporates retailers in and adjacent to
Lynden’s downtown area.
•
Fairway Center – This district refers to those retailers within the Fairway Center on
Front Street, between 17th Street and 18th Street.
•
Bender Plaza – This district refers to those retailers within the Bender Plaza, located
at the intersection of East Badger Road and Bender Road.
•
The Guide – This district refers to retail around the intersection of Guide Meridian Road
and Birch Bay-Lynden Road and incorporates Lynden Towne Plaza and
Market Place at Lynden.
•
Cost Cutter Redevelopment (Future Lynden Market Square) – Beyond the
existing (above) retail nodes, there are plans to redevelop the former Cost Cutter
grocery store on Front Street. The new development will be mixed-use and will
include a retail component.
Downtown Lynden
Downtown Lynden incorporates the retail located between 7th Street to the west, 1st Street to
the east, Judson Street Alley to the south, and Main Street to the north. This retail district also
includes retailers within a quarter mile along Depot Road. Downtown Lynden is populated with a
variety of locally owned stores, including Dutch Mother’s Bakery, Carol’s Hallmark,
Colony House Furniture, Lynden Chocolate & Candy Shoppe, More Than Antiques, and
Lynden Dutch Bakery.
The downtown district is a pedestrian-friendly retail area. During our field visit, cars were
consistently parked along Front Street, their drivers using the sidewalks, despite the damp and
chilly weather. The parking availability – both in front of businesses and in free parking lots –
Lynden, Washington
Page 14
encouraged people to shop downtown instead of at the larger retailers with their acres of
parking lots to cross. Business owners and employees, who consistently parked in the
alleyways behind the stores and in other, employee-designated areas, helped to free up parking
space for potential customers.
When compared to many other similarly sized communities’ downtown areas, Downtown
Lynden is a rather vibrant district, well-shopped by residents and visitors alike. This district,
while having a few vacancies, retains a good overall level of occupancy. The majority of
downtown storefronts are attractive and well maintained; this attractiveness is further bolstered
by the architectural features which carry forward the Dutch-inspired theme. The most notable
Downtown Lynden building is the Dutch Village Inn, with its large windmill. The associated
Dutch Village Mall emulates a Dutch streetscape, complete with canal. The former
Delft Square Mall was a unique and attractive building, the loss of which occurred between our
field evaluation and this report. Its loss is significant to the downtown retail district and to the city
in general. The building’s renovation from a department store into a mall had allowed for a mix
of retail and commercial services and had included The Loft restaurant, overlooking Front Street.
The former Delft Square Mall
Lynden, Washington
Page 15
While the general impression of downtown Lynden is good, there are a few issues that require
some attention. Most notably is the storefront appearance of some retailers. Many businesses
have a well-maintained and welcoming appearance, but there are a few with peeling paint and
worn-out signs that detract from the district’s overall appearance. This and other issues will be
further discussed in Section V, Conclusions.
Fairway Center
Located along Front Street, between 17th Street and 18th Street, this plaza has several national
and local retailers. National retailers include True Value Hardware, Ace Hardware, RadioShack,
and
Little
Caesar’s.
Local
operators
include
Fairway
Drug,
Woods
Coffee,
and
Dave’s Sportsworld. The nicely renovated Fairway Center is in an ideal place to take advantage
of traffic traveling towards downtown from Guide Meridian Road, as Front Street is the easiest
and most direct route.
Fairway Center
Lynden, Washington
Page 16
While the exterior of the Fairway Center is attractive and well maintained, it lacks lighting for the
building-mounted store signs, making it difficult to see store names when driving past after dark.
Looking down Front Street from 6th Street
Bender Plaza
Bender Plaza, which is located at the intersection of East Badger Road and Bender Road (near
the Homestead Farms Golf Resort) has several restaurants, service retailers, and a gas station
with a convenience store. Most of Lynden’s recent residential growth has occurred near this
plaza. This convenience-oriented retail center, with its current mix of establishments and its
proximity to residential growth, is well positioned to serve residents living in the northeast
portion of Lynden and throughout the entire community.
Bender Plaza
Lynden, Washington
Page 17
The Guide
This area, at the intersection of Guide Meridian Road and Birch Bay-Lynden Road, incorporates
the Market Place at Lynden (anchored by Safeway), the Lynden Towne Plaza (anchored by
Food Pavilion), and several smaller retailers who are located in the immediate vicinity. Most
visitors to Lynden arrive by Guide Meridian Road, where they are greeted by this retail
concentration.
Marketplace at Lynden
Beyond the two grocery-anchored community shopping centers, this retail district is home to several
quick-service restaurants (Subway, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Dairy Queen, Milt’s Pizza Place)
and service retailers (e.g., banks, hair salons). Additionally, Rite Aid recently relocated from its
in-line store in the Lynden Towne Plaza to an out-parcel store with a drive-thru pharmacy.
Lynden Towne Plaza
Lynden, Washington
Page 18
The Guide has a traditional, suburban feel, catering to consumers who prefer to drive to their
shopping destinations. These centers benefit from retail synergy and strong, convenient
regional accessibility. While the retail in this district is well maintained and architecturally
pleasant, this district does lack a sense of place: The Guide is no different from those retail
districts that are found in other similarly sized communities across the country.
Cost Cutter Redevelopment (Future Lynden Market Square)
This redevelopment has been proposed as a mix of retail, service, office, food service, light
industrial, storage, and residential space. With approximately 40,000 square feet of retail
planned for this development, a significant portion of the identified supportable square footage
could be located here. Like the Fairway Center, a development here would benefit from strong
local accessibility along Front Street and a location between The Guide and Downtown Lynden
retail districts.
Retail Competition
One of the greatest challenges for retail development in Lynden is the strong retail competition
from other communities.
Bellingham
Currently, Lynden’s retail sales leakage to Bellingham is considerable. Most national chain retail
stores that serve the northwestern Washington market are located within Bellingham – a major
retail node. The Bellis Fair Mall alone encompasses 772,400 square feet of retail space, which
is more retail square footage than Lynden’s entire LTA currently occupies.
Bellis Fair Mall and several of Bellingham’s other large shopping nodes (primarily along a 1-mile
stretch of Guide Meridian Road) draw retail sales out of Lynden. These competitive influences
hinder Lynden’s retail sales potential on multiple levels. The next several paragraphs will
provide brief descriptions and competitive highlights of these retail nodes. In addition to the
centers listed below are several out-parcel buildings and smaller plazas that house retailers like
Walmart, Olive Garden, and Schucks Auto Supply.
Lynden, Washington
Page 19
Bellingham’s competitive retail nodes include:
•
Bellis Fair Mall – This regional mall is anchored by J.C. Penney, Sears, Kohl’s,
Macy’s, and Target. It serves as a primary source of competition for Lynden’s
retailers. Located approximately 11 miles south of Lynden, along Guide Meridian Road,
this mall has good regional access via I-5. Additionally, it is positioned along the
main route used by commuters between Bellingham and Lynden.
The Bellis Fair Mall
•
Meridian Village – This center is across the road from the Bellis Fair Mall. Retail
tenants include The Home Depot, Circuit City, Linens ‘n Things, Ross Dress for Less,
Boater’s World, Rite Aid, Joe’s Sports Outdoor & More, and several smaller retailers.
•
Cordata Centre – This shopping center is proximate to the Bellis Fair Mall. It is
anchored by Bed Bath & Beyond, Best Buy, Costco, Office Depot, T.J. Maxx, and
several smaller retail outlets.
•
Sunset Square – This is another area within Bellingham that provides Lynden
retailers with strong competition. Sunset Square is located at the intersection of I-5
and Sunset Drive. This center and its surrounding area represent the second-largest
concentration of national, large-format retailers within Bellingham. It is anchored by
Big Kmart, Cost Cutter Foods, Jo-Ann Fabric and Crafts, OfficeMax, Rite Aid, and
Sunset Cinemas; and has many smaller retailers (e.g., restaurants, service retailers,
furniture stores). An adjacent Lowe’s increases the area’s retail synergy.
Lynden, Washington
Page 20
•
Fred Meyer – This store is beyond Sunset Square, at the Bakerview Road and I-5
intersection, approximately 15-20 minutes from Lynden.
•
Downtown Bellingham – Like Downtown Lynden, this district is well maintained
and offers consumers several unique shopping and dining opportunities.
Ferndale
Approximately 9 miles southwest of Lynden, the city of Ferndale represents a significant source
of competition. Ferndale retailers benefit from direct access with I-5; however, this city lacks the
small-town appeal and attractive qualities that Lynden enjoys. The most notable shopping
center here is the Ferndale Shops plaza, anchored by a Haggen supermarket. This center
includes Hollywood Video, Walgreens, and Quizno’s. Although there are two grocery stores
within Lynden, during our qualitative analysis, residents indicated that they often travel to
Ferndale in order to shop at Haggen, and that they consequently do additional shopping while
there. Beyond Ferndale Shops is an older community center, anchored by Cost Cutter, with
NAPA Auto Parts, Bob’s Burgers & Brews, and Denny’s. Downtown Ferndale has a variety of
shops and restaurants that also lack the charm and appeal of Lynden’s.
Downtown Ferndale
Lynden, Washington
Page 21
Birch Bay
Primarily a small-town vacation destination, Birch Bay is home to Birch Bay Square – a lifestyle
outlet center that is currently undergoing renovations. Existing tenants include (but are not
limited to) Van Heusen, Vitamin World, Bob’s Burgers & Brews, Shoe Pavilion, and Bass Outlet.
With good visibility and access from I-5, this plaza, once completed, will be an attractive shopping
destination. Beyond Birch Bay Square, the community is home to the well-known candy store,
The C. Shop, which is one of the main competitors to Lynden Chocolate & Candy Shoppe.
Blaine
This community, while not providing as significant a competitive influence as Bellingham or
Ferndale, does have an influence worth mentioning. The largest notable national retailer in this
community is Cost Cutter, but there are several smaller retailers in downtown Blaine that
compete with Lynden for tourist dollars. Blaine’s position on I-5 at the U.S.-Canada border
makes it an ideal location to intercept tourist dollars.
Everson
Of the small communities east of Lynden, Everson provides the most retail competition. This
community provides its residents with several basic goods and services, including grocery
(Everson Market) and limited retail and dining options. Many of the residents of Everson, as well
as those of Nooksack and Sumas, travel to Lynden for the purpose of shopping; however,
Everson’s retailers do provide Lynden with a limited level of competition; for this reason,
Everson has been excluded from Lynden’s LTA.
Lynden, Washington
Page 22
IV. TRADE AREAS
The trade areas for Lynden were derived by evaluating a variety of factors, including
accessibility, existing and planned competition, physical and psychological barriers, and the
overall drawing power of the area. To measure competition, Pitney Bowes MapInfo conducted a
field evaluation of the market. During this evaluation, we drove through the market thoroughly,
visiting and evaluating the major existing and planned retail concentrations in order to develop
first-hand knowledge of them.
A complete inventory was made of all retail establishments in Lynden. Additionally, a detailed
inventory was conducted in the peripheral communities. Major retail nodes beyond those
peripheral communities (e.g., Bellis Fair Mall, Birch Bay Square) were also recorded. These
inventories were used to determine the level of retail competition, as well as those geographic
break points at which customers were still more likely to shop in Lynden instead of other retail
areas. This information was used to define the custom boundaries of the Lynden trade areas.
Based on the factors outlined above, two trade areas have been defined. The local trade area
(LTA) refers to that area from which convenience-based retail offerings in the community
(e.g., Rite Aid, Dairy Queen, Chevron) will draw approximately 75% of their business. This area
includes a population base that will typically shop the area on a weekly basis, making it a
primary shopping destination.
The regional trade area (RTA) represents the area from which the more regional retailers
(e.g., Wal-Mart, Bed Bath & Beyond, The Home Depot) will draw approximately 70% to 75% of
their business. Moreover, the RTA represents the area from which convenience-based retailers
will draw an additional 10% of their customer base. This includes residents who live in the RTA
but not within the LTA. These are residents who shop Lynden frequently (between one and
three times a month), but not as their primary shopping destination.
Pitney Bowes MapInfo recognizes the unique product offerings and tourist appeal resulting from
Lynden’s Dutch-inspired heritage; therefore, the anticipated capture rates of the trade areas
have been adjusted to assume greater sales from outside the defined trade areas. These
adjusted retail sales will originate either from customers beyond the defined trade area, who will
Lynden, Washington
Page 23
patronize Lynden’s retail establishments only every couple of months, or from tourists, who may
shop here only once every few years.
Local Trade Area (LTA)
The map above depicts the local trade area (LTA). The green line represents the LTA boundary. The broken circles represent 1- and
3-mile rings (for spatial referencing purposes only).
Because of Lynden’s size and the distance between communities in this region of Washington,
the LTA incorporates only the city of Lynden and a small, surrounding area. The existing retail
nodes within Lynden are primarily oriented toward the western side of the city, taking advantage
of the comparatively strong regionality of Guide Meridian Road. While residents of the smaller
communities to the east (Sumas, Nooksack, and Everson) will be primarily oriented to Lynden,
the existing retail in these communities provides for many of their staple needs (e.g., groceries,
fuel). Therefore, though these residents patronize Lynden (for those goods that are not already
Lynden, Washington
Page 24
available within their communities) and Bellingham (for specialty retail needs) on a regular
basis, Lynden is likely not their primary retail destination.
Regional Trade Area (RTA)
The map above depicts the regional trade area (RTA). The green line represents the RTA boundary. The broken circles represent 1and 3-mile rings (for spatial referencing purposes only).
The RTA encompasses the communities of Sumas, Nooksack, Everson, Blaine, Birch Bay, and
Custer. It extends farther west and south than it does east and north because of the proximity of
the Canadian border and the Cascade Mountains – significant physical barriers. While the
communities to the east of Lynden (Sumas, Nooksack, and Everson) have local retail, thus
excluding them from the LTA, they will be oriented primarily to Lynden for regional retailers. The
RTA is limited to the south by the strong retail presence of Bellingham. Several retail nodes,
including the Bellis Fair Mall, make Bellingham a destination for many surrounding communities.
Lynden, Washington
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Beyond Trade Area Potential
While the described LTA and RTA account for approximately 75% of all sales for Lynden
retailers, there will be sales that originate from consumers and tourists outside these trade
areas. These sales may originate anywhere, but will most likely come either from residents of
Ferndale and Bellingham or from tourists who are visiting Lynden for its events or unique
shopping opportunities. As Guide Meridian Road leads border-crossing travelers past Lynden,
the community will benefit from increased sales. Moreover, the current strength of the Canadian
dollar will further drive Lynden’s retail attractiveness, as shopping in the United States is currently
tantamount to shopping with a universal 20% to 30% discount. The Nooksack Northwood
Casino, approximately 5 miles northeast of Lynden, will also bring tourist dollars to the city.
Lynden, Washington
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V. CONCLUSIONS
Based on this analysis, Lynden can currently support an additional 52,650 to 81,050 square feet
of new retail development. This potential assumes that the city, in conjunction with other retail
stakeholders, will work in a progressive manner to bolster the retail image of Lynden as a
desirable place to shop and dine. Retail stakeholders are defined as the City of Lynden, the
Chamber of Commerce, community leaders, shopping center owners and developers, and
individual store owners and managers (both independent and chain). Recommendations and
guidelines for retail investment and revitalization are disclosed later in this section.
Pitney Bowes MapInfo has generated three forecast scenarios for Lynden: a current year, status
quo forecast (2008); a five-year conservative (2013) forecast; and a five-year aggressive (2013)
forecast. The status quo forecast assumes the existing retail environment, demographic
characteristics, and retail demand. The conservative (2013) forecast assumes the projected
current trends in population and income growth. The aggressive (2013) forecast assumes both
a continued increase in population and income growth and the implementation and maintenance
of several recommendations and guidelines outlined in this report. Estimates in this final
scenario are more aggressive and assume that Lynden will be successful in securing national
retailers in the years immediately following this study. Supportable-square-footage estimates for
all three scenarios are displayed in the following table:
Lynden, Washington
Page 27
Category
Apparel
Women’s Apparel Store
Men’s Apparel Store
Children’s/Teen’s Apparel Store
Shoe Store
Jewelry Store
Sub-Total for Apparel
Appliance/Electronics Store
Book/Music Store
Computer/Software Store
Pharmacy/Drug Store
Nursery/Garden Center
Liquor Store
Toy/Hobby Store
Total Additional Supportable Square Footage
2008
Status Quo
2013
Conservative
2013
Aggressive
7,700
6,000
2,000
3,000
500
19,200
2,500
1,800
500
1,200
4,000
2,800
10,500
650
5,600
2,800
1,100
9,250
7,500
2,500
4,000
750
24,000
3,000
2,500
750
1,500
5,000
4,000
12,750
850
6,750
3,250
1,500
10,500
8,500
3,000
5,500
1,000
28,500
3,600
4,000
1,250
2,000
6,000
6,000
15,000
1,000
7,500
4,000
2,200
52,650
65,850
81,050
Using the following criteria, Pitney Bowes MapInfo has evaluated the supportable square
footage for optimal retail matches (national, regional, or local/independent operators):
•
Appropriate community size and characteristics
•
Appropriate demographic/psychographic mix and consumer spending patterns
•
Current deployment patterns for suggested retailers
-
Similar locations (small market)
-
Similar store spacing (distance between stores in the same chain)
-
Similar accessibility and visibility characteristics
-
Future expansion plans (markets for future consideration)
Moreover, Pitney Bowes MapInfo has utilized its knowledge of and experience with working with
the real estate and market research departments of a variety of retail and restaurant chains to
recommend the most appropriate operator/operator type. Pitney Bowes MapInfo will
recommend several national retail chains that are appropriate for a deployment in
Lynden, but there are retail categories that should be filled by local entrepreneurs and
Lynden, Washington
Page 28
operators. For example, in the jewelry store category, supportable square footage can be filled
either by a new operator or by the expansion of an existing operator, like Chad’s Jewelry Design.
The following tables list the retail categories, supportable new square footage in each category,
and the types of stores. The tables also depict the nearest competition or sister stores (with
location) in each retail category. Pitney Bowes MapInfo provides a recommendation for the
location of the retailer within the community; recommended retailers have all met the criteria
outlined above.
W O M E N ’ S A P P AR E L S T O R E
Supportable Square Footage
7,700 – 9,250
Type of Deployment
1 – 2 storefront(s)
Recommended Retail Chain
Dress Barn, Fashion Bug, Lane Bryant
Nearest Location of
Recommended Retailer
Dress Barn (Burlington), Fashion Bug (Marysville), Lane Bryant
(Bellingham)
Existing Competition
The Dresser Drawer, Wear on Earth
Recommendation
Currently, there are limited choices for women’s apparel in
Lynden. The recommended national retailers all provide a wide
range of clothing options; however, the most ideal situation,
providing the best product for Lynden, is the combination of all
apparel-category square footage and the recruitment of
Ross Dress for Less or T.J. Maxx.
M E N ’ S A P P AR E L S T O R E
6,000 – 7,500
Type of Deployment
Casual Male XL, Western Warehouse
Nearest Location of
Casual
Male
XL
(Citrus Heights, CA)
N/A
Recommendation
There are currently no male-specific retailers in Lynden. The
national retailers listed above meet our specified criteria, but
they tend to locate in areas with larger populations. As
explained above, the ideal situation would be the combination
of all apparel-category square footage and the recruitment of
(Lynwood),
Western
Warehouse
Lynden, Washington
Page 29
C H I L D R E N ’ S ’/T E E N ’ S A P P AR E L S T O R E
2,000 – 2,500
Type of Deployment
1 storefront
Once Upon A Child
Nearest Location of
Tacoma
N/A
Recommendation
Because of Lynden’s size and location, there are very few
national retailers that fit this category; however, Once Upon a
Child, which offers a unique shopping environment, does
deploy in communities like Lynden. As explained above, the
combination of all apparel-category square footage and the
recruitment of Ross Dress for Less or T.J. Maxx would be ideal.
SHOE STORE
3000 – 4,000
Type of Deployment
Payless ShoeSource, Naturalizer
Nearest Location of
Payless ShoeSource (Abbotsford, BC; Bellingham, WA),
Naturalizer (Abbotsford, BC; Auburn, WA)
Sportsworld (Fairway Center – mainly a sports equipment and
apparel store)
Recommendation
Because there are no shoe stores in Lynden, either of the
above national retailers would work. They both offer a wide
variety of both men’s, women’s and children’s shoes at a range
of prices. Another option for this category is the combination of
all apparel-category square footage and the recruitment of
JEWELRY STORE
500 – 750
Type of Deployment
Existing store expansion
A local operator would work best in this category.
Nearest Location of
N/A
Chad’s Jewelry Design
Recommendation
Because the amount of supportability in this category is low, an
expansion to an existing retailer is the best option. Another
option is incorporating this available square footage into a
unified apparel category and then getting a retailer that has a
jewelry/accessories department (Ross Dress for Less, T.J. Maxx).
Lynden, Washington
Page 30
As previously noted in the above tables, an option that the city of Lynden may wish to pursue is
the combination of all apparel-category square footage and the recruitment of Ross Dress for Less
or T.J. Maxx. The benefits of such a retailer are size and merchandise variety. Additionally, a
large clothing retailer like either of these would fill the needs of the apparel categories while
providing the community with a large, national-chain brand, spurring additional national-chain
investment. The ideal location for a large, general-apparel retailer is in The Guide retail district.
One possible site is the location of the former Rite Aid.
A P P L I AN C E /E L E C T R O N I C S S T O R E
2,500 – 3,000
Type of Deployment
1 storefront
Nearest Location of
N/A
Lloyds Electronics, RadioShack
Recommendation
Most national retailers in this category require more supportable
space and a larger household base than Lynden can provide.
RadioShack is generally the only exception to these
requirements, but one is already located in Lynden. As there is
demand in this category, a local operator would be ideal. This
local operator could be a franchised cell phone and accessories
store.
A U T O M O T I V E P AR T S /R E P AI R S H O P
1,800 – 2,500
Type of Deployment
1 outparcel/freestanding unit
AAMCO Transmission, Midas Auto Service Experts
Nearest Location of
AAMCO Transmission (Surrey, BC), Midas Auto Service
Experts (Bellingham)
Carquest Auto Parts, NAPA Auto Parts, Schucks Auto Supply
Recommendation
Although there are several auto parts places within Lynden,
there is a lack of specialty automotive repair options. AAMCO
Transmissions or Midas Auto Service Experts would fill this
void.
Lynden, Washington
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B O O K /M U S I C S T O R E
500 – 750
Type of Deployment
Existing store expansion
Nearest Location of
N/A
Katz Coffee & Used Books, Family Christian Bookstore
Recommendation
Because of the low supportability for this category, an expansion to
an existing retailer is the best option. During our qualitative
analysis, residents mentioned a desire for new, non-denominational
books. While a new bookstore is not likely, an expansion to Katz
Coffee & Used Books could accommodate this need.
C O M P U T E R /S O F T W AR E S T O R E
1,200 – 1,500
Type of Deployment
1 storefront
Nearest Location of
N/A
N/A
Recommendation
Currently, there are no computer stores in Lynden. With the low
supportability for this category, there were no national retailers
that met our selection criteria. A local operator is the best
option; another option is the combination of this category with
the appliance/electronics category.
P H AR M AC Y /D R U G S T O R E
4,000 – 5,000
Type of Deployment
1 storefront
The Medicine Shoppe International, Medicap Pharmacies
Nearest Location of
The
Medicine
Shoppe
International
Medicap Pharmacies (Anacortes)
Rite Aid, Fairway Drug
Recommendation
With the presence of the existing drug stores, the supportability
for this category is not large enough for another full-size drug
store like CVS. A good option is a smaller store that is
predominantly a pharmacy. The national chains listed above
meet the size requirements and are considering expanding in
northwest Washington. One possible location may be near
Bender Plaza, where it could serve Eastern Lynden as well as
residents as far out as Sumas.
(Bremerton),
Lynden, Washington
Page 32
N U R S E R Y /G AR D E N C E N T E R
2,800 – 4,000
Type of Deployment
1 freestanding unit
Nearest Location of
N/A
Hi Hoe Nursery
Recommendation
Because of the nature of retailers in this category, a local
operator would be the best option. This supportability can be
satisfied with either a new location or an expansion to an existing
location.
HOME FURNISHINGS STORE
10,500 – 12,750
Type of Deployment
Anna’s Linen’s
Nearest Location of
Though deployed across the U.S., there are no locations in
Washington.
Recommendation
Fairway Country Furnishings, Front St. Home Furnishings,
Lars Clock Shop, Kitchen Konnection, Fishtrap Creek Interiors,
Grandiflora Home and Garden, More Than Antiques,
Custom Corners Frames and Specialties
Though Lynden does not lack home furnishing options, there is
still more supportable space. There are already many options
for antiques, lighting, clocks, and other décor items, but there
are currently no options for essentials (e.g., sheets, towels,
other linens). A possible deployment site is in the former
Rite Aid location.
LIQUOR STORE
650 – 850
Type of Deployment
1 storefront or an existing store expansion
Nearest Location of
N/A
Lynden Liquor Store
Recommendation
Because of limited supportable space in this category, either an
expansion to the existing liquor store or a small deployment on
the eastern side of town would be appropriate. The grocery
stores on the west side already serve Lynden’s liquor needs.
Lynden, Washington
Page 33
P E T /P E T S U P P L I E S S T O R E
5,600 – 6,750
Type of Deployment
MudBay, Wild Birds Unlimited, Three Dog Bakery
Nearest Location of
MudBay (Bothell, WA), Wild Birds Unlimited (White Rock, BC;
Everett, WA), Three Dog Bakery (Vancouver, BC; Seattle, WA)
N/A
Recommendation
Though several retailers in Lynden sell pet supplies, there are
none that are dedicated solely to this category. Lynden has a
relatively affluent household base and a strong tourism
component to its economy, so a specialty pet supply store like
those listed above would be appropriate matches. These
retailers would serve Lynden residents and tourists.
Additionally, an independent specialty pet supplies operator
could fill this niche demand. The most appropriate location for
this type of retail is in Downtown Lynden.
SPORTING GOODS STORE
2,800 – 3,250
Type of Deployment
1 storefront
Play-It-Again Sports
Nearest Location of
Bellingham
Dave’s Sports Shop, Sportsworld
Recommendation
There are already sporting goods stores in Lynden, but a
retailer that carries a wider range of sporting equipment would
be a good addition. Because Play-It-Again Sports sells both
new and used equipment, they provide a good opportunity for
people to recycle their used sports equipment.
T O Y /H O B B Y S T O R E
1,100 – 1,500
Type of Deployment
1 storefront
EB Games/GameStop/Electronics Boutique, Games Workshop
Nearest Location of
EB Games / GameStop / Electronics Boutique (Bellingham),
Games Workshop (Marysville)
Bumblebees (in the Dutch Village Mall)
Recommendation
While Bumblebees has a great selection of classic toys and
games, the above national-brand chains would offer roleplaying and video games and systems. This difference in
product lines would allow both stores to prosper without much
competition between them.
Lynden, Washington
Page 34
In general, most national retailers will want to locate new units either within Lynden’s existing
shopping centers or as out-parcel units near Guide Meridian Road. Retail deployments in the
Downtown Lynden retail district will likely be made by local or independent operators.
Retail Deployment Factors
There are myriad considerations that a retailer or retail developer must make when choosing to
deploy a new store or retail center, including locational characteristics, real estate availability
and cost, competitive positioning, and chain-expansion planning. There are several positive and
negative factors that retailers must weigh when considering a deployment in Lynden, some of
which the city can affect, and others that it cannot.
After completing our quantitative and qualitative assessments of the city, we have ranked the
top three factors that an average retailer/retail chain would consider when evaluating a
deployment opportunity in Lynden. This ranking does not include financial consideration, which
is ultimately every retailer’s paramount concern.
1.
Trade area demographic and psychographic composition – namely, community size
2.
Existing competition (both sister-store and non-sister-store)
3.
Regional accessibility and retail synergy
Item three presents two aspects of location consideration that will often go hand-in-hand in a
community the size of Lynden. Retail synergy often occurs near points of strong regional
accessibility.
Special Retail Consideration
During our analysis, Lynden’s desire to recruit and locate a large-format, general-merchandise
retailer (e.g., Walmart, Fred Meyer, Target) within the city was brought to our attention. Because
this type of retailer was discussed frequently, Pitney Bowes MapInfo felt that there needed to be
a special discussion regarding this retail category. Through our quantitative analysis and retail
inventory, we found sufficient expenditure potential to warrant the addition of a large-format,
general retailer. A general-merchandise retailer, with multiple departments that would utilize all
the supportable square footage, would satisfy all merchandise lines listed above.
Lynden, Washington
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This next section briefly presents the pros and cons for two general merchandise-retailer
recruitment scenarios that are available to the city.
1.
The city actively recruits a large-format, general-merchandise retailer, using this
retailer to fill all supportable square footage within the community.
2.
The city does not recruit a large-format, general-merchandise retailer, instead
actively recruiting smaller retailers to fill the community’s supportable space.
Recruitment of a Large-Format, General-Merchandise Retailer
Pro
•
It would satisfy many of the community’s retail needs within a single store.
•
It could spur additional retail investment – that is, it would attract other stores that
prefer to co-deploy with a large, national brand (e.g., Cato Fashions, which typically
co-deploys with Wal-Mart).
•
It would make the community slightly more attractive for residential developers, as
residents want to be close to the goods and services that they require.
Con
•
It would limit potential for smaller-format retail development.
•
It would put pressure on certain existing businesses, possibly leading to retail closure.
•
Many large-format general-merchandise units have grocery components, and
Lynden is already saturated with grocery stores.
•
It would require deployment along Guide Meridian Road and would not draw people
to Downtown Lynden.
•
It may preclude retail demand that is slated for the planned redevelopment of the
former Cost Cutter site.
Recruitment of Individual Retailers
Pro
•
The city would be more directly in control of in-fill deployment opportunities.
•
It would allow for the redevelopment of the Cost Cutter retail space.
•
It would not require alteration to the city’s current square-footage cap.
Lynden, Washington
Page 36
Con
•
Significantly more time would be consumed by recruiting retailers and filling
individual retail spaces.
•
It would not produce as much of a drastic impact (“wow” factor) on residents or visitors.
•
It does not appreciably increase the retail drawing power of Lynden the same way
that a large, national retailer would.
•
There would be no guarantee that all supportable space would be filled.
Goals, Initiatives, and Guidelines
This section of the Lynden market analysis addresses the opportunities in and challenges with
developing a strategic retail plan for the community. Regardless of the path chosen, the overall
success of future retail in Lynden is dependent on the combined efforts of the aforementioned
retail stakeholders.
Storefront Appearance
Business owners must take pride in the appearance of their establishments, both inside and out.
While there are several excellent examples of buildings with well-maintained storefronts, there
are a number of storefronts in Downtown Lynden with broken fixtures, broken signs, peeling
paint, dirty windows, or facades that are in need of pressure washing.
Several examples of attractive and well-maintained storefronts, including Lynden Chocolate & Candy Shoppe,
Lynden Paint and Decorating Center, and Lynden Dutch Bakery
Lynden, Washington
Page 37
These storefronts along 3rd Street are attractive, but
they still need proper signs.
Lynden Dutch Bakery is well maintained.
This storefront needs maintenance.
Another example of a storefront needing maintenance
The city cannot be expected to maintain the individual buildings: this is the responsibility of the
business owners. However, it can help: along with the Chamber of Commerce, the city can hold
workshops and networking meetings to promote cooperation throughout the Downtown Lynden
retail district. For example, there may be times when all the retailers could have their window
displays revolve around a unified theme. (To some degree, this automatically happens during
holiday seasons.)
Lynden, Washington
Page 38
There should be an effort to refurbish buildings and stores that are currently vacant. Some of
these may have absentee landlords, but there are still actions that can be taken to help improve
their appearance. One option is having existing retailers create window displays in the empty
storefront that promote their own merchandise (preferably, this would be done by retailers who
are close to the vacant location; customers will not want to travel to the other end of town to buy
the merchandise they see in a window). The Compass Point Survey Group, Inc. is a great
example of this type of retail window display. By far, the worst option for a city is covering up the
windows with unattractive boards or newspapers – it only detracts from the overall retail
environment.
A good example of an existing retailer creating a window display where an inappropriate use of retail space
has occurred
Hours of Operation
An important factor that needs to be addressed in any retail environment is its hours of
operation – especially in its downtown area. With fewer open stores, the difficulty of attracting
shoppers increases. In a world of 24-hour superstores and online shopping, the typical
consumer now expects to be able to purchase goods and services whenever they are needed.
Typical customers understand that it is not practical for a small business to be open 24 hours a
day, but they do expect to be able to shop after work, on the weekend, or on a lunch break.
Lynden, Washington
Page 39
It is understandable that some retailers may not want to add staff to handle the extra hours, but
they can certainly adjust their business hours slightly, opening earlier or closing later to ensure
that their stores are open during the times that customers tend to shop. If customers cannot get
to a store when it is convenient for them, they will simply go to another store that is open when
they need it to be. Often, this means that customers will shop at the national chains – even
leaving Lynden altogether to drive into Bellingham or Ferndale.
Two examples of inconsistent hours of operation for stores within Downtown Lynden
Shop owners do not need to stay open until 10 p.m. like the larger national chain stores do, but
it would be beneficial for all Downtown Lynden shops to choose one or two nights a week
(especially during the summer months) on which they all stay open later (at least until 7 p.m.). It
may take time for the change to catch on with the customers, so it should be heavily promoted
until these patrons become familiar with the hours. It is important to note that doing this for a
month or so and then reverting to the old hours will only confuse customers, making the
situation worse.
Because Lynden’s Dutch-inspired heritage creates a draw for tourists (many of whom are more
than willing to spend money shopping when they visit Lynden), the local retailers should make
Lynden, Washington
Page 40
an effort to be more accommodating with their operating hours. When speaking with residents
and local retailers, we discovered that there are several bus tours that frequent Lynden,
especially on Saturdays. Adjusting a shop’s open days to include Sunday (perhaps closing on a
weekday instead) would encourage these bus tours to make more than just a day stop.
Additionally, it would significantly increase the potential revenue for all participating Lynden
retailers. If they cannot regularly stay open on weekends, retailers – especially those in
Downtown Lynden – should make a concerted effort to be open for bus tours and major city
events, thus maximizing sales and general exposure.
In a recent study8, weekday expenditure activity levels (separated by meal type) were studied
against corresponding weekend levels. The following patterns were noted:
Weekdays
•
20.2% of people dine out for breakfast
•
31.9% of people dine out for lunch
•
16.9% of people dine out for dinner
Weekends
•
33.7% of people dine out for breakfast
•
32.8% of people dine out for lunch
•
35.4% of people dine out for dinner
Note that weekend restaurant business is drastically higher.
While these statistics apply only to dining out, anecdotal information implies that this trend
applies (though perhaps less strongly) to traditional retail sales (weekday versus weekend).
In any city or downtown area, there may be a number of local shop owners who run their stores
more as a hobby than for a living, and who do not care if their sales increase; they may not want
to work more hours than they already do. In these cases, a request to alter their hours to be
open an evening or two – or on Sundays – and an appeal to their pride in the city and to their
8
Source: Restaurants & Institutions, “The New American Diner: Ties That Bond,” January 2008
Lynden, Washington
Page 41
desire to help their neighbors succeed may work. There will, however, be some cases in which
shop owners simply will not comply; in these cases, efforts are best spent on other initiatives.
Local Retail Recruitment
One of the greatest challenges that communities like Lynden currently and will continue to face
is the recruitment of local entrepreneurs to open independent or franchised stores within the
community. Lynden has the advantage of a strong entrepreneurial spirit among many of its
existing independent retailers. Several businesses, such as Dutch Mother’s Bakery,
Katz Coffee & Books, and Colony House Furniture, have achieved success in Lynden; however,
there is still a significant level of unmet demand in several retail categories that is likely
best-filled by independent operators. Therefore, entrepreneurship should be encouraged.
We suggest that the aforementioned retail stakeholders jointly develop a multiple-phased retail plan
to attract and to retain retailers in the city. First, the city needs to answer the following questions:
•
Based upon the retail market analysis, which retail voids does the city wish to fill?
•
Who or what type of retailers should fill the preferred voids? (This market analysis
will provide insight and direction.)
•
Is there space (available square footage) to accommodate this retail? Does more
retail space need to be added? Who owns the space, and what are the owner’s
plans for development/redevelopment?
•
What existing stores have leases up for renewal? Can any retailers be relocated to
better suit each district’s development plans?
Once these questions have been answered, an entrepreneur workshop should be held to
discuss the retail needs of Lynden with existing business owners and interested community
leaders.
This
workshop
should
be
advertised
not
only
within
the
city
of
Lynden, but also in surrounding communities. It is not unreasonable for someone living in
Sumas or Birch Bay to drive into Lynden on a daily basis to operate a business. Finally,
interested parties can be shown ideal locations with the appropriate store size to meet
Lynden, Washington
Page 42
supportable demand. The city can also provide resources for startup funding, facility
improvements, and advertising options, thus guiding the direction of retail growth and
development while fostering a strong working relationship.
Delft Square Redevelopment
Because of the recent loss of the Delft Square Mall, we felt that it was necessary to discuss the
potential redevelopment of the site. We are assuming that any redevelopment would be similar
in size to what was destroyed (multiple stories, similar footprint). Based on these assumptions,
we have come up with a generalized recommendation for the new building. It is important to
note that these are guidelines, not specific plans.
The new building should have retail in the front half of the main floor and offices for services
(e.g., insurance, financial, personal care) in the rear. Retail should be directly accessible from
the street and may also be accessible from within the building. A central main entrance, with
corresponding lobby, would allow access to the offices in the rear of the building and to the
stairs and elevator to the second floor. Offices would be most appropriate for the second floor. A
third floor would be for apartments (depending on residential demand) or public rental storage.
This overall plan is similar to the former building layout, but we recommend having less interior
space dedicated to being a hallway and more to actual retail and office use. Additionally, the
interior layout would be reorganized to make more businesses visible from the main entrance.
The most appropriate retail uses for this building are: restaurant with sidewalk patio (or, similar
to the former Loft Restaurant, overlooking Front Street); home décor or furnishings stores,
similar to those that were there (e.g., Lars Clock Shop, Three Corners Art and More); apparel
shop; computer store; toy or hobby shop; and specialty pet supply store.
Signage
During the course of our fieldwork, we noticed that there was a lack of consistent signage in and
around the city of Lynden to indicate that a traveler has arrived in the community. Such signage
is appropriate, especially for a community like Lynden, which generates visitor and tourist traffic,
because it guides those who are unfamiliar with the area into the city and toward retail
Lynden, Washington
Page 43
destinations and other attractions. A unified signage theme would additionally establish a sense of
place, setting Lynden apart from the surrounding communities.
Welcome sign along Front Street
Welcome sign along Hannegan Road
We only noticed two signs during our field evaluation: the “Welcome to Lynden” sign, located
along Hannegan Road (South 1st Street); and a sign that reads “The Service Clubs of Lynden
Welcome You” along Front Street. Neither of these signs is located along the main routes that
visitors to Lynden would likely take. The third notification of having arrived in Lynden was the
low brick walls with the city’s name mounted on them. These walls, at the intersection of the
Guide and Front Street, are adjacent to the cemetery, and for a visitor, it may not be clear
whether Lynden is the city’s name or the cemetery’s.
City sign located at the intersection of the Guide and Main Street
Lynden, Washington
Page 44
Our recommendation is consistent signage at city boundaries that intersect major travel routes,
including on the Guide (both north and south of the large retail concentration), Birch Bay-Lynden
Road, and Badger Road. These signs should all feature a common logo and color scheme so
that they are instantly recognizable as Lynden city limit signs. The existing Hannegan Road sign
is a good example of what new signage might look like, as it is easy to read and features a city
logo that captures the Dutch-inspired heritage aspect. Pitney Bowes MapInfo also recommends
a sign near the I-5 exit at Birch Bay to indicate the presence and direction of Lynden.
Additionally, directional signs leading visitors downtown and to other retail areas would be
beneficial; currently, there is no indication of any shopping opportunities beyond those located
along the Guide. These directional signs would be best located along the Guide, in the vicinity of
both Front and Main Streets and at the intersection of Depot Road and East Badger Road (the
most frequently used routes to downtown). Furthermore, signs indicating the location of the
fairgrounds, museums, and visitor information center would be helpful for tourists; these
directional signs could be similar to the small-image signs, seen in other communities, that
indicate the direction to airports, libraries, and the like.
When used in conjunction with consistent hours of operation and an effective marketing
scheme, new signage would significantly increase visitors’ knowledge of local attractions while
enhancing their ability to get there.
Concluding Comments
Lynden has the potential to support additional retail development that better serves its residents
while maintaining the community’s small-town appeal. It is imperative that the city and its
residents develop a plan to ensure that Lynden remains vibrant for future generations.
Lynden has several positive attributes that contribute immensely to its retail potential. These
attributes include its strong sense of community pride, the growing retail environment, and its
Dutch-inspired heritage that brings visitors from all over. Lynden needs to build upon these
strengths while making necessary improvements. It is crucial to remember that change will not
happen overnight; in most cases, the time it takes from a retailer being contacted and becoming
interested in the community as a deployment opportunity to a store being opened can be
several years.
Lynden, Washington
Page 45
As Lynden achieves its successes, it needs to promote each milestone – not only in the
community, but also in the surrounding communities. As work is completed and excitement
grows within the area, Lynden will be given increasingly more attention by national retailers who
will, in turn, help make the city an even better place in which to live, shop, and dine.
Lynden, Washington
Page 46
Appendix A
Appendix A
2008 and 2013 Total Supportable Square Feet
Category
Women's Apparel
Men's Apparel
Children's/Teen's Apparel
Shoes
Jewelry
Apparel Subtotal
Appliance/Electronics
Book/Music Store
Computer Store
Pharmacies/Drug Stores
Nursery/Garden Centers
Home Furnishings
Liquor Store
Pet Supplies
Toy/Hobby Store
Total
2008
Status Quo
7,700
6,000
2,000
3,000
500
2013
Conservative
9,250
7,500
2,500
4,000
750
2013
Aggressive
10,500
8,500
3,000
5,500
1,000
19,200
2,500
1,800
500
1,200
4,000
2,800
10,500
650
5,600
2,800
1,100
24,000
3,000
2,500
750
1,500
5,000
4,000
12,750
850
6,750
3,250
1,500
28,500
3,600
4,000
1,250
2,000
6,000
6,000
15,000
1,000
7,500
4,000
2,200
52,650
65,850
81,050
Status Quo:
The number of square feet that can be added in existing retail market place
Conservative:
The number of square feet that can be added, assuming no drastic changes in the retail
market place (e.g., large employment-base change, drastic housing growth/decline,
a new large retailer [greater than 70,000 square feet] entering Lynden)
Aggressive:
The number of square feet that can be added, assuming an improving retail climate from
the addition of new retailers (creating retail synergy) and/or an improved retail
environment based on new programs or initiatives implemented by the city
Appendix B
Local Trade Area (LTA) Map
Appendix B
Appendix C
Regional Trade Area (RTA) Map
Appendix C
Appendix D
Summary Demographic
Benchmark Report
(Local Trade Area)
Appendix D
Summary Demographic Benchmark Report (%)
Local Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
Total Population
15,568
17,650
19,023
% Group Quarters Population
% 2000 Population in Family Households
% 2000 Population in Non-Family Households
0.8%
89.3%
9.9%
0.7%
---
0.6%
---
Total Households
5,433
6,300
6,702
% Households 1 Person
% Households 2 Persons
% Households 7+ Persons
21.0%
34.0%
14.2%
14.9%
10.0%
3.8%
2.1%
22.5%
34.2%
14.2%
14.2%
9.2%
3.6%
2.1%
21.3%
34.1%
14.4%
14.8%
9.6%
3.7%
2.0%
91.9%
0.2%
0.5%
1.7%
5.6%
7.3%
92.7%
91.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1.9%
6.3%
8.6%
91.4%
89.1%
0.3%
0.6%
2.3%
7.8%
11.6%
88.4%
8.7%
13.9%
7.6%
4.1%
4.2%
5.4%
5.9%
7.2%
7.7%
7.2%
5.4%
4.1%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
2.2%
2.2%
34.1
44.3
8.3%
13.1%
6.2%
3.8%
3.5%
7.3%
5.2%
5.7%
7.2%
6.8%
5.8%
6.4%
5.1%
3.6%
3.2%
3.5%
2.6%
2.7%
36.2
46.6
7.4%
12.7%
6.0%
4.1%
4.6%
6.8%
5.3%
5.1%
6.3%
6.5%
6.4%
6.7%
5.8%
4.2%
3.5%
3.1%
2.6%
2.6%
36.9
47.6
Race and Ethnicity
% White Population Alone
% Black Population Alone
% American Indian/Alaska Native Alone
% Asian/Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
% Other Population (Including 2+ Races)
% Hispanic Population
% Non-Hispanic Population
Population by Age
% Age 0-5
% Age 6-13
% Age 14-17
% Age 18-20
% Age 21-24
% Age 25-29
% Age 30-34
% Age 35-39
% Age 40-44
% Age 45-49
% Age 50-54
% Age 55-59
% Age 60-64
% Age 65-69
% Age 70-74
% Age 75-79
% Age 80-84
% Age 85+
Median Age Total Population
Median Age Adult Population
Data Source: MapInfo Corporation
© 2006 MapInfo Corporation, Troy, New York. All rights reserved. 1-800-489-8829
Appendix D
Local Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
31.4%
35.3%
20.3%
11.5%
1.5%
32.5
43.4
30.4%
30.4%
24.4%
12.9%
2.0%
34.8
47.2
32.0%
34.1%
29.1%
14.7%
1.8%
35.1
48
29.1%
33.7%
20.1%
14.1%
2.9%
35.3
45.2
24.9%
34.9%
23.8%
13.0%
3.3%
37.3
45.9
23.6%
34.2%
24.9%
13.9%
3.4%
38.2
47.2
66.9%
28.6%
4.5%
---
---4,367
1,955
------
Male Population By Age
% Male Age 0-17
% Male Age 19-44
% Male Age 45-64
% Male Age 65-84
% Male Age 85+
Median Age Male Population
Median Age Adult Male Population
Female Population By Age
% Female Age 0-17
% Female Age 18-44
% Female Age 45-64
% Female Age 65-84
% Female Age 85+
Median Age Female Population
Median Age Adult Female Population
Housing
% 2000 Owner-Occupied Housing Units
% 2000 Renter-Occupied Housing Units
% 2000 Vacant Housing Units
2007 Total Owner-Occupied Housing Units
2007 Total Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Appendix E
Socioeconomic Benchmark Report
(Local Trade Area)
Appendix E
Socioeconomic Benchmark Report (%)
Local Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
Population
15,568
17,650
19,023
% Population Change 1990-2000
31.1%
---
-13.4%
--
--7.8%
Households
5,433
6,300
6,702
% Households Change 1990-2000
Average Household Size
37.4%
--2.8
-16.0%
-2.7
--6.4%
2.8
76.1%
2.9%
89.3%
9.9%
-----
-----
$18,985
$54,518
$44,029
$296
$23,409
$65,581
$50,118
$413
$26,034
$73,895
$56,253
$495
5.3%
6.3%
5.4%
6.1%
6.2%
7.8%
6.5%
8.0%
5.5%
10.7%
13.1%
11.9%
2.4%
1.1%
1.5%
2.3%
4.1%
7.3%
5.3%
5.9%
5.2%
5.7%
4.8%
6.4%
5.0%
10.7%
14.0%
15.0%
4.4%
2.0%
1.7%
2.4%
3.5%
6.8%
4.7%
5.5%
4.4%
5.2%
4.0%
4.8%
4.5%
10.6%
16.2%
17.8%
5.6%
2.4%
1.7%
2.4%
9,397
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
5.8%
11,492
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
5.3%
------
Families
% Family Households
% Non-Family Households
% Population in Family Households
% Population in Non-Family Households
Income
Per Capita Income
Average Household Income
Median Household Income
Aggregate Income ($ Million)
Household Income
% Household Income <$10,000
% Household Income $10,000-$14,999
% Household Income $200,000+
Education
Total Educational Attainment Age 25+
% No Schooling Completed
% Nursery School through 4th Grade
% 5th or 6th Grade
% 7th or 8th Grade
Appendix E
Local Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
% 9th Grade
% 10th Grade
% 11th Grade
% 12th Grade, No Diploma
% High School Graduate (Includes Equivalency)
% Some College <1 Year
% Some College 1+ Years, No Degree
% Associate Degree
% Bachelor's Degree
% Master’s Degree
% Doctorate Degree
% Professional School Degree
1.9%
2.2%
2.4%
2.3%
34.1%
8.6%
14.6%
4.7%
14.9%
5.0%
0.8%
1.4%
1.7%
2.1%
2.3%
2.1%
34.6%
7.9%
14.4%
5.1%
15.8%
0.8%
5.2%
1.4%
-------------
11,743
21.1%
66.4%
5.1%
7.4%
13,536
24.2%
68.8%
4.8%
2.2%
------
76.1%
2.9%
21.0%
79.0%
66.5%
31.7%
34.9%
1.7%
1.2%
----------
----------
11,410
63.5%
0.0%
34.4%
2.1%
------
------
54.6%
45.4%
29.6%
15.5%
24.9%
4.6%
11.0%
14.3%
55.1%
44.9%
29.9%
15.6%
25.2%
4.4%
10.9%
14.0%
---------
Marital Status
Marital Status Age 15+
% Never Married
% Now Married
% Divorced
% Widowed
Household by Type
% Family Households
% Non-Family households
% 1 Person Households
% 2+ Person Households
% Married Couple Family
% Married Couple Family with Child <18
% Married Couple Family with No Child <18
% Male Householder
% Female Householder
Employment Status
Population by Employment Status
% Employed Civilians
% in Armed Forces
% Not in Labor Force
% Unemployed Civilians
Employment by Occupation
% White-Collar Occupations
% Blue-Collar Occupations
% Management/Professional/Related
% Service Occupation
% Sales/Office
% Farming/Fishing/Forestry
% Construction/Extraction/Maintenance
% Production/Transportation/Material Moving
Appendix E
Local Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
10,536
8.4%
25.4%
43.5%
15.4%
4.5%
2.8%
1.9
12,210
------1.9
---------
Vehicles Available
Total Vehicles
% Households with No Vehicle
% Households with 1 Vehicle
% Households with 2 Vehicles
% Households with 5+ Vehicles
Average Vehicles per Household
Appendix F
Summary Demographic
Benchmark Report
(Regional Trade Area)
Appendix F
Regional Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
Total Population
41,985
47,420
50,495
% Group Quarters Population
0.5%
88.4%
11.1%
0.5%
---
0.4%
---
Total Households
15,137
17,546
18,664
% Households 1 Person
% Households 7+ Persons
20.1%
35.8%
15.3%
14.9%
8.5%
3.4%
2.0%
22.1%
35.9%
14.9%
13.9%
7.8%
3.2%
2.1%
22.6%
35.4%
14.7%
14.0%
7.9%
3.3%
2.1%
90.4%
0.5%
1.3%
1.9%
5.8%
7.1%
92.9%
89.8%
0.5%
1.3%
2.0%
6.4%
8.3%
91.7%
88.0%
0.6%
1.5%
2.5%
7.4%
11.2%
88.8%
8.4%
13.8%
7.1%
3.8%
3.9%
5.3%
6.2%
7.8%
8.0%
7.8%
6.6%
4.9%
4.0%
3.6%
3.2%
2.6%
1.6%
1.4%
34.9
44.2
7.9%
13.0%
5.8%
3.5%
3.1%
7.0%
5.5%
6.1%
7.4%
7.3%
7.0%
7.7%
5.8%
3.6%
3.0%
2.7%
1.9%
1.7%
37.4
46.7
7.4%
12.4%
5.7%
3.8%
4.2%
6.4%
5.4%
5.5%
6.5%
6.8%
7.2%
8.0%
6.7%
4.4%
3.4%
2.6%
1.9%
1.7%
38.4
48
Race and Ethnicity
% White Population Alone
% Black Population Alone
% American Indian/Alaska Native Alone
% Asian/Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
% Other Population (Including 2+ Races)
% Hispanic Population
% Non-Hispanic Population
Population by Age
% Age 0-5
% Age 6-13
% Age 14-17
% Age 18-20
% Age 21-24
% Age 25-29
% Age 30-34
% Age 35-39
% Age 40-44
% Age 45-49
% Age 50-54
% Age 55-59
% Age 60-64
% Age 65-69
% Age 70-74
% Age 75-79
% Age 80-84
% Age 85+
Median Age Total Population
Median Age Adult Population
Appendix F
Regional Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
30.1%
35.1%
23.3%
10.5%
0.9%
34.3
43.9
29.1%
29.9%
28.2%
11.6%
1.2%
36.9
47.9
30.3%
32.7%
32.4%
13.8%
1.2%
37.9
49
28.5%
34.8%
23.1%
11.7%
1.9%
35.6
44.6
24.4%
35.6%
27.3%
10.6%
2.1%
37.7
45.5
23.3%
34.2%
28.2%
12.0%
2.2%
38.7
47
57.3%
22.4%
20.4%
---
---12,484
5,033
------
Male Population by Age
% Male Age 0-17
% Male Age 19-44
% Male Age 45-64
% Male Age 65-84
% Male Age 85+
Median Age Male Population
Median Age Adult Male Population
Female Population by Age
% Female Age 0-17
% Female Age 18-44
% Female Age 45-64
% Female Age 65-84
% Female Age 85+
Median Age Female Population
Median Age Adult Female Population
Housing
% Owner-Occupied Housing Units
% Renter-Occupied Housing Units
% Vacant Housing Units
Total Owner-Occupied Housing Units
Total Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Appendix G
Socioeconomic Benchmark Report
(Regional Trade Area)
Appendix G
Regional Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
Population
41,985
47,420
50,495
32.6%
--
--
--
12.9%
--
--
--
6.5%
Households
15,137
17,546
18,664
Average Household Size
35.8%
--
--
--
15.9%
--
--
2.8
2.7
6.4%
2.7
75.3%
4.6%
88.4%
11.1%
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
$19,706
$54,765
$43,380
$827
$24,342
$65,788
$48,069
$1,154
$27,360
$74,021
$53,385
$1,382
6.2%
5.5%
6.1%
5.8%
6.9%
6.9%
7.6%
7.1%
5.8%
10.1%
13.0%
10.6%
3.4%
1.2%
1.3%
2.2%
4.9%
5.8%
6.3%
5.6%
6.1%
5.6%
5.8%
6.3%
5.6%
9.4%
14.0%
13.7%
4.6%
1.9%
1.6%
2.7%
4.4%
5.3%
5.6%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.0%
5.4%
5.2%
9.8%
15.1%
16.5%
5.5%
2.2%
1.7%
2.5%
26,297
0.6%
0.2%
1.1%
3.9%
1.9%
31,599
0.5%
0.2%
1.1%
3.6%
1.8%
--
--
Families
% Family Households
% Non-Family Households
Income
Per Capita Income
Average Household Income
Median Household Income
Aggregate Income ($ Million)
Household Income
% Household Income <$10,000
% Household Income $200,000+
Education
Total Educational Attainment Age 25+
% No Schooling Completed
% Nursery School through 4th Grade
% 5th or 6th Grade
% 7th or 8th Grade
% 9th Grade
------
Appendix G
Regional Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
% 10th Grade
% 11th Grade
% 12th Grade, No Diploma
% High School Graduate (Includes Equivalency)
% Some College <1 Year
% Some College 1+ Years, No Degree
% Associate Degree
% Bachelor's Degree
% Master’s Degree
% Doctorate Degree
% Professional School Degree
2.5%
2.4%
3.4%
33.7%
9.5%
16.3%
5.1%
13.3%
4.1%
0.8%
1.2%
2.4%
2.3%
3.1%
34.4%
8.8%
16.1%
5.4%
14.0%
0.8%
4.3%
1.2%
--
31,947
21.7%
64.8%
8.1%
5.4%
36,707
24.7%
65.4%
7.9%
2.0%
--
75.3%
4.6%
20.1%
79.9%
63.5%
1.6%
34.6%
2.9%
28.9%
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
31,114
62.2%
0.1%
34.3%
3.4%
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
51.5%
48.5%
26.5%
16.3%
25.0%
4.5%
11.5%
16.1%
52.0%
48.0%
26.8%
16.4%
25.1%
4.4%
11.3%
15.9%
--
-----------
Marital Status
Marital Status Age 15+
% Never Married
% Now Married
% Divorced
% Widowed
-----
Household by Type
% Family Households
% Non-Family households
% 1 Person Households
% 2+ Person Households
% Married Couple Family
% Married Couple Family with Child <18
% Married Couple Family with No Child <18
% Male Householder
% Female Householder
Employment Status
Population by Employment Status
% Employed Civilians
% in Armed Forces
% Not in Labor Force
% Unemployed Civilians
Employment by Occupation
% White-Collar Occupations
% Blue-Collar Occupations
% Management/Professional/Related
% Service Occupation
% Sales/Office
% Farming/Fishing/Forestry
% Construction/Extraction/Maintenance
% Production/Transportation/Material Moving
--------
Appendix G
Regional Trade Area
Demographic
2000
2007
2012
30,739
5.5%
24.8%
44.4%
17.3%
5.2%
2.8%
2.0
35,628
------2.0
---------
Vehicles Available
Total Vehicles
% Households with No Vehicle
% Households with 1 Vehicle
% Households with 5+ Vehicles
Average Vehicles per Household
Appendix H
Population and
Demographic Characteristic Maps
Lynden Local Trade Area
2007 Population Density
Legend
Aldergrove
Trade Area Boundary
Abbotsford
Distance Reference Rings
Water
2007 Population Density
by Block Group
1,330.1 To 3,793.6
375.3 To 1,330.1
194.9 To 375.3
126.8 To 194.9
31.8 To 126.8
Sumas
3 MILES
%
&
546
Berthusen
Memorial Park
1 MILE
Lynden
&
%
539
Nooksack
Everson
Custer
N
&
%
544
0
1.75
Miles
3.5
Lake Terrell
St Game Refuge
M H Park
Ferndale
Pioneer Park
!
"
9
Deming
Appendix
H
2007 Daytime Population
Legend
Aldergrove
Trade Area Boundary
Abbotsford
Water
2007 Daytime Population
by Block Group
2,560 To 7,900
1,890 To 2,560
1,520 To 1,890
1,050 To 1,520
380 To 1,050
Sumas
3 MILES
%
&
546
Berthusen
Memorial Park
1 MILE
Lynden
&
%
539
Nooksack
Everson
Custer
N
&
%
544
0
1.75
Miles
3.5
Lake Terrell
St Game Refuge
M H Park
Ferndale
Pioneer Park
!
"
9
Deming
Appendix
H
2007 Median Household Income
Legend
Aldergrove
Trade Area Boundary
Abbotsford
Water
2007 Median
Household Income
by Block Group
$60,400 To $71,600
$52,500 To $60,400
$44,800 To $52,500
$39,600 To $44,800
$24,600 To $39,600
Sumas
3 MILES
%
&
546
Berthusen
Memorial Park
1 MILE
Lynden
&
%
539
Nooksack
Everson
Custer
N
&
%
544
0
1.75
Miles
3.5
Lake Terrell
St Game Refuge
M H Park
Ferndale
Pioneer Park
!
"
9
Deming
Appendix
H
2007 Median Age
Legend
Aldergrove
Trade Area Boundary
Abbotsford
Water
2007 Median Age
by Block Group
40.1 To 49.1
38.7 To 40.1
36.2 To 38.7
33.0 To 36.2
27.7 To 33.0
Sumas
3 MILES
%
&
546
Berthusen
Memorial Park
1 MILE
Lynden
&
%
539
Nooksack
Everson
Custer
N
&
%
544
0
1.75
Miles
3.5
Lake Terrell
St Game Refuge
M H Park
Ferndale
Pioneer Park
!
"
9
Deming
Appendix
H
2007 Percent College Degree
Legend
Aldergrove
Trade Area Boundary
Abbotsford
Water
2007 % College Degree
by Block Group
33.67% To 38.98%
28.18% To 33.67%
23.39% To 28.18%
20.30% To 23.39%
12.59% To 20.30%
Sumas
3 MILES
%
&
546
Berthusen
Memorial Park
1 MILE
Lynden
&
%
539
Nooksack
Everson
Custer
N
&
%
544
0
1.75
Miles
3.5
Lake Terrell
St Game Refuge
M H Park
Ferndale
Pioneer Park
!
"
9
Deming
Appendix
H
Appendix I
Appendix I
Lynden, Washington
Category/Tenant
Target GLA*
(Square Feet)
Target Traffic
Count
(Vehicles/Day)
30,200
40,000
Gregg McGillis
Group Vice President, Real Estate
4440 Rosewood Avenue, Building 4
Pleasanton, California 94588
Phone: (925) 965-4400
Fax: (925) 965-4388
gregg.mcgillis@ros.com
www.rossstores.com
29,000 to 65,000
N/A
Eric J. Corpuz
Real Estate for OR, WA, Northern CA
1900 South Norfolk Street, Suite 350
San Mateo, California 94403
Phone: (650) 577-2316
Fax: (650) 577-2317
eric_corpuz@tjx.com
Contact Name, Address,
Phone Number, and Website
General Family Apparel
Ross Dress for Less
(Ross Stores, Inc.)
T.J. Maxx
(TJX Companies, Inc.)
TJX Companies, Inc.
770 Cochituate Road
Framingham, Massachusetts 01701
Phone: (508) 390-1000
www.tjx.com
www.tjxrealestate.com
Women's Apparel
The Dress Barn, Inc.
4,000 to 5,000
N/A
Elise Jaffe
Senior Vice President, Real Estate
30 Dunnigan Drive
Suffern, New York 10901
Phone: (845) 369-4500
Fax: (845) 369-8001
elise.jaffe@dressbarn.com
www.dressbarn.com
Fashion Bug and Lane Bryant
(Charming Shoppes, Inc.)
5,000 to 7,000
N/A
Alan Bobman
Vice President, Real Estate
450 Winks Lane
Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020
Phone: (215) 245-9100
Fax: (215) 638-6919
realestate@charming.com
www.charmingshoppes.com
*The data presented in this table represent target ranges for each individual retailer.
Target GLA*
(Square Feet)
Target Traffic
Count
(Vehicles/Day)
Casual Male XL
(Casual Male Retail Group, Inc.)
3,500 to 4,000
40,000
Melissa S. Martin
Real Estate
555 Turnpike Street
Canton, Massachusetts 02021
Phone: (781) 828-9300
Fax: (781) 821-0614
msmartin@cmal.com
www.casualmalexl.com
Western Warehouse
(Corral West Ranchwear, Inc.)
8,000 to 10,000
N/A
Larry Hager
CFO/Executive Vice President – Real Estate
4519 Frontier Mall Drive
Cheyenne, Wyoming 82009
Phone: (307) 632-0951
Fax: (307) 633-2631
customer_service@corralwest.com
www.corralwest.com
2,800 to 3,200
25,000
Paola Olson
Real Estate Manager
4200 Dahlberg Drive, Suite 100
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55422-4837
Phone: (763) 520-8500
Fax: (763) 520-8410
info@winmarkcorporation.com
www.winmarkcorporation.com
Payless ShoeSource
3,000
N/A
Gayla Cowan
Real Estate – CO, ID, MT, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY
3231 Southeast Sixth Street
Topeka, Kansas 66601
Phone: (785) 270-7802
Fax: (785) 270-7879
gayla_cowan@payless.com
www.paylessshoesource.com
Naturalizer
(Naturalizer Retailer)
1,200
N/A
W. Bradley Adams
Senior Vice President/General Manager
8300 Maryland Avenue
Saint Louis, Missouri 63105
Phone: (314) 854-4000
Fax: (314) 854-4274
lpritchard@brownshoe.com
www.naturalizeronline.com
Category/Tenant
Men's Apparel
Children's Apparel
Once Upon a Child
(Winmark Corporation)
Shoe Store
Target GLA*
(Square Feet)
Target Traffic
Count
(Vehicles/Day)
AAMCO Transmission
2,500 to 5,500
20,000
Pat Drinkwater
Center Development/Real Estate Manager
201 Gibraltar Road
Horsham, Pennsylvania 19044
Phone: (800) 394-6116
Fax: (215) 956-0340
www.aamco.com
Midas Auto Service Experts
(Midas International Corp.)
4,500 to 5,000
N/A
Alan Feldman
Chairman/President/CEO
1300 Arlington Heights Road
Itasca, Illinois 60143
Phone: (630) 438-3000
Fax: (630) 438-3880
www.midasinc.com
Medicine Shoppe International, Inc.
(Cardinal Health, Inc.)
2,000
N/A
Terry Burnside
President
One Rider Trail Plaza Drive, Suite 300
Earth City, Missouri 63045
Phone: (314) 993-6000
Fax: (314) 872-5500
john.pittarelli@cardinalhealth.com
www.medshoppe.com
Medicap Pharmacies
(Owned by Cardinal Health, Inc. but
operated separately)
2,500
N/A
John Pittarelli
Director, Store Development
4350 Westown Parkway, Suite 400
West Des Moines, Iowa 50266
Phone: (515) 224-8400
Fax: (515) 224-8415
jpittarelli@medicaprx.com
www.medicaprx.com
7,000 to 15,000
N/A
Pat Barber
Vice President, Real Estate
3550 Hyland Avenue
Costa Mesa, California 92626
Phone: (714) 460-2802
Fax: (714) 460-1750
pat@annaslinens.com
www.annaslinens.com
Category/Tenant
Pharmacy/Drug Store
Anna's Linens
Target GLA*
(Square Feet)
Target Traffic
Count
(Vehicles/Day)
MudBay
3,000 to 5,000
N/A
Lars and Marisa Wulff
Co-CEOs
2900 37th Avenue SW
Olympia, Washington 98512
Phone: (360) 709-0074
Fax: (360) 709-0083
realestate@mudbay.us
www.mudbay.us
Wild Birds Unlimited
1,600 to 2,400
25,000
Linda Gilkerson
Franchise Development Manager
11711 North College Avenue, Suite 146
Carmel, Indiana 46032
Phone: (317) 571-7100
Fax: (317) 571-7110
gilkersonl@wbu.com
www.wbu.com
Three Dog Bakery
1,000 to 2,000
N/A
Kathy Warren
Vice President/Real Estate
1843 North Topping Avenue
Kansas City, Missouri 64120
Phone: (816) 474-3647
Fax: (816) 474-2171
threedog@threedog.com
www.threedog.com
2,500 to 3,500
25,000
Paola Olson
Real Estate Manager
4200 Dahlberg Drive, Suite 100
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55422-4837
Phone: (763) 520-8500
Fax: (763) 520-8410
info@winmarkcorporation.com
www.winmarkcorporation.com
Category/Tenant
Play It Again Sports
(Winmark Corporation)
Category/Tenant
Target GLA*
(Square Feet)
Target Traffic
Count
(Vehicles/Day)
1,000 to 2,000
N/A
Marc Summey
Senior Vice President,
Development/Real Estate
625 Westport Parkway
Grapevine, Texas 76051
Phone: (817) 424-2000
Fax: (817) 424-2002
blaynewhite@gamestop.com
www.gamestop.com
1,000
N/A
Tim Goins
Real Estate
6711 Baymeadow Drive
Glen Burnie, Maryland 21060
Phone: (410) 590-1400
Fax: (410) 590-1444
timothy.goins@games-workshop.com
www.games-workshop.com
Toy/Hobby Store
GameStop, EB Games, Electronics
Boutique
(GameStop Corp.)
Gaes Workshop
(Games Workshop Retail, Inc.)

Retail Market Analysis

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