Retail Market Analysis Poplar Bluff, Missouri

Transcription

Retail Market Analysis Poplar Bluff, Missouri
Retail Market Analysis
Poplar Bluff, Missouri
Prepared by:
February 2012
A Retail Market Analysis
for
Poplar Bluff, Missouri
Prepared for:
Greater Poplar Bluff Area Chamber of Commerce &
Poplar Bluff Industries
In partnership with
Ozark Foothills Regional Planning Commission.
Prepared by:
February 2012
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Table of Contents
1.0
Introduction........................................................................................................................ 3
2.0
Market Analysis ................................................................................................................ 4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
3.0
3.1
3.2
Market Definition ........................................................................................................................ 4
Trade Area Definitions ........................................................................................................... 11
Retail Market Analysis ............................................................................................................ 15
Retail Pull Factor ...................................................................................................................... 27
Demographics and Market Segmentation ............................................................... 31
Demographic Snapshot ......................................................................................................... 31
Market Segmentation .............................................................................................................. 35
4.0
Employment Assessment ............................................................................................ 42
5.0
Business Development................................................................................................. 48
5.1
5.2
5.3
Business Development .......................................................................................................... 48
Market Positioning................................................................................................................... 49
Partnerships & Planning ........................................................................................................ 50
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
1.0 Introduction
Poplar Bluff is the seat of Butler County in the southeastern corner of Missouri. As the
“Gateway to the Ozarks”, Poplar Bluff and Butler County lie at the center of a large rural region.
It is strategically located less than two hours from five states, and equidistance from St Louis
and Memphis, Tennessee. Its location has made it the center of government, commerce,
education, and healthcare for a large area in Southeast Missouri and Northeast Arkansas.
During the current national economic crisis, Poplar Bluff has successfully maintained its position
as a retail and employment center, and has continued to be self-sufficient while serving a
regional market.
The Greater Poplar Bluff Area Chamber of Commerce and Poplar Bluff Industries, in partnership
with the Ozark Foothills Regional Planning Commission, authorized this study to assess the
current retail market in the greater Poplar Bluff area, determine its market reach as well as
opportunities for business growth. The study was conducted in late 2011, and enlisted the
assistance of area businesses to help determine the depth of the market. The process also
included an assessment of employment trends, as well as demographics of Poplar Bluff and its
trade areas.
The report includes:
•
A market definition exercise that defines the local market geography based on true
consumer trading patterns, determines the depth of the local and visitor market, and
establishes a primary and secondary trade area.
•
A retail market assessment that uses the local trade areas to examine the existing retail
business mix as well as opportunities for new or expanded business types. The
assessment includes a retail leakage and gap analysis, a retail shares study, and space
demand projections for individual retail types.
•
A demographic and market segmentation study that analyzes the makeup of Poplar
Bluff’s local trade areas and region, determining consumer needs, target markets, and the
potential for new products.
•
An employment assessment that shows the existing employment base by sector as well
10-year projections. This includes an estimated daytime population figure for Poplar Bluff.
•
Business development recommendations that detail general strategic tasks necessary to
grow Poplar Bluff’s economic base based on market research.
The market analysis looks at the Greater Poplar Bluff and Butler County area, as well as for
Carter, Reynolds, Ripley, and Wayne Counties.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
2.0 Market Analysis
This chapter presents the findings of the retail market analysis for the Greater Poplar Bluff area.
The market definition section of this report provides a description of the geography of Poplar
Bluff’s customer base, and the individual market studies present specific business recruitment
and development opportunities.
Arnett Muldrow’s methodology is designed to provide a snapshot of retail trade patterns in the
community. Because it presents data for Poplar Bluff as a whole, this study does not necessarily
reflect the exact trade patterns that each individual business might see through the course of the
year. It should not substitute for thorough market research for any specific business. Still, the
information provided offers insight into the overall patterns, retail trade areas, and customer
traffic for Poplar Bluff as a whole. The data will prove to be useful to Poplar Bluff’s economic
development agencies, as well as to individual businesses and property owners looking to make
investments in the community.
2.1 Market Definition
The market definition exercise will establish the true geography of the retail trade area for
Poplar Bluff and will provide the baseline data for the subsequent analyses. In order for the
conclusions to be accurate, it is important that the market analysis reflect the consumer habits
within Poplar Bluff’s trade areas rather than arbitrary study areas such as political boundaries
and drive-time scenarios.
The process began with a zip code survey of customers to determine the market base relevant
to Poplar Bluff and its businesses. This includes determining its place within the larger region
and nearby competitive markets.
Survey Participation
In order to be most accurate, Arnett Muldrow enlisted the assistance of area businesses to track
consumers. During a one-week period, twenty-four businesses tallied the resident zip codes of
their customers.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Zip Code Survey of Customers
Poplar Bluff, Missouri
August 30 - September 6, 2011
Business Name:___________________________________________
Each business was provided a form to
record zip codes and was asked to keep
a log of its customers. Customers were
recorded through the end of the week or
200 customers, whichever came first.
Instructions
1. Please record the residence zip code of customers in the spaces below.
2. Please stop recording if you reach 200 customers, or by September 6th, whichever comes first.
3. Please record only one customer per individual numbered row. Thank you!
If resident lives in zip code 63901,
please ask them if they live IN or OUT of the City of Poplar Bluff
Poplar Bluff
Customer
Williamsville Wappapello
63901
IN or OUT 63967
63966
Fisk
63940
Broseley
63932
Qulin
63961
Neelyville
63954
Ellsinore
Other
63937
Please
Record
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
The sample included a good mix of
businesses in Poplar Bluff primarily
located along the Westwood Boulevard
retail corridor.
Figure 1: Zip code survey instrument. Arnett
Muldrow & Associates.
Zip Code Survey Results
•
The survey was held the week of August 30th through September 6th, 2011.
•
The twenty-four businesses that participated included a cross section of those in Poplar Bluff
including:
- Restaurant
- Bank
- Pharmacy
- Clothing
- General Merchandise - Insurance
- Convenience/Gas
- Building Supply
- Department Store
- Gifts
- Personal Care
- Recreation
- Event Venue
- Auto Dealer
- Home Furnishings
•
A number of national and regional chains assisted with the survey, as well as locally owned
independent businesses.
Arnett Muldrow has performed this study in numerous
communities across the country, and more chains participated in Poplar Bluff than any other
location. This should give an even better representation of Poplar Bluff’s market.
•
3,795 individual customer businesses were recorded during the survey week, an average of
158 per business.
•
These customers came from 185 unique zip codes and 21 unique states.
The tables on the following page show the results of the zip code survey as compared to peer
communities in which Arnett Muldrow has performed similar analyses. These communities are
of similar size to Poplar Bluff, are county seats, or are the center of a larger rural region. They
present a comparison of total unique visitors from different zip codes and different states. It
should be noted that the other communities may have had a different number of businesses
participate or may have conducted the survey at a different time of year.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
In general, communities that have a broad visitor market are shown to the left on the charts
(more zip codes and states), and those with a stronger local market base are shown to the right.
For the purposes of these charts, Poplar Bluff is identified with red bars.
Albemarle, NC
Hinesville, GA
Greenwood, SC
Reidsville, NC
Lancaster, SC
Monroe, GA
Wise, VA
Blackstone, VA
Rocky Mt, VA
Union City, GA
Anderson, SC
Poplar Bluff
Salisbury, NC
Aiken, SC
Newberry, SC
185
Statesville, NC
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Figure 2: Comparison of unique zip codes recorded during initial zip code survey.
During the survey week, participating businesses in Poplar Bluff had 185 unique zip codes.
When compared to peer communities, Poplar Bluff lies in the mid to upper range. This is
expected considering the community’s position in a rural region in Southeast Missouri, and
provides the first evidence that Poplar Bluff is the retail center of a large regional market.
Albemarle, NC
Monroe, GA
Greenwood, SC
Hinesville, GA
Blackstone, VA
Lancaster, SC
Wise, VA
Union City, GA
Reidsville, NC
Rocky Mt, VA
Poplar Bluff
Anderson, SC
Salisbury, NC
Newberry, SC
Statesville, NC
21
Aiken, SC
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Figure 3: Comparison of unique states recorded during survey period.
Poplar Bluff had 21 unique states during the survey week. While the community does lie within
about an hour and a half from five states including Missouri, 21 unique states was not expected
considering the fact that there are no major interstates passing through Poplar Bluff. Again, this
is a positive indicator that shows Poplar Bluff’s pull from the larger region.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Customer Base
The next several charts show Poplar Bluff’s customer base broken down by customers’ place of
residence. For the most part, the charts identify each community based on its zip code. In
some cases, it refers to a collection of zip codes (ex. “Rest of US” or “Butler County”).
Rest MO AR
15.8% 1.8%
IL
0.5%
Other
1.4%
Harviell
1.7%
Qulin
1.8%
Broseley
1.9%
Fisk
1.9%
Ellsinore
2.3%
Doniphan
2.8%
Poplar Bluff
61.8%
Wappapello Williamsville
3.1%
3.0%
Figure 4: Percentage of Customer Visits – ALL BUSINESSES
•
Nearly 62% of the customers came from the primary 63901 Poplar Bluff zip code. While this
is somewhat typical in a community like Poplar Bluff, this is a slightly larger overall portion
compared to other communities. However, this is likely due to the fact that the 63901 zip
code is geographically large, and represents the majority of Butler County itself.
•
Next were Williamsville (63967) and Wappapello (63966) with approximately 3% each.
•
Outside of Poplar Bluff, the local customer base seemed to be spread rather evenly across
the region.
•
Outside of the immediate area, 15.8% of customers came from the rest of Missouri.
•
About 3.7% came from out of state, including 1.8% from Arkansas and 0.5% from Illinois.
Considering that 21 states overall were represented, this shows that most out of state
customers were individual visitors.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Rest MO
4.7%
Reynolds Co.
0.4%
Rest US
3.7%
Stoddard Co.
2.6%
Carter Co.
3.3%
Ripley Co.
5.6%
63901 In
39%
Wayne Co.
8.6%
Rest of Butler
County
9.3%
63901 Out
22%
Figure 5: Percentage of Customer Visits by County
•
Customers within the 63901 zip code were asked whether they lived INSIDE the corporate
limits of Poplar Bluff, or OUTSIDE but still in 63901. All told, 39% of all customers during the
survey week reside in the town limits of Poplar Bluff. While Poplar Bluff does appear to
draw customers from a large region, nearly 4 out of 10 customers live in town.
•
Similarly, approximately 71% of all customers live in Butler County.
•
Wayne County was next with 8.6%, followed by Ripley (5.6%) and Carter (3.3%).
•
92% of all customers come from within a seven county region (Butler, Wayne, Ripley,
Carter, Stoddard, Reynolds, and Clay County, AR).
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Local and Visitor Market by Business:
The data presented above represent Poplar Bluff businesses as a whole. However, individual
businesses typically show different trade patterns. The charts below show the local and visitor
market by individual businesses for each of the 24 businesses that participated. The average of
all businesses is shown in red.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
39%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Figure 6: Percent Poplar Bluff by Business
Participating businesses had an average of 39% of customers living within the City of Poplar
Bluff, ranging from 5% to 100% depending on the business. Similarly, the Butler County
customer base ranged from 36% to 100% with and average of 71%. The chart below shows the
“visitor” market by business. A visitor is defined as a customer living outside of the seven-county
area.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
8%
10%
0%
Figure 7: Percent “Visitor” Bluff by Business
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Just 8% of all customers during the survey week could be considered “visitors”. This varied
from 0% to 38%. They could be regional customers from nearby areas such as Cape Girardeau,
or true visitors from out of state. Four businesses had no visitors during the survey week. The
8% visitor figure is very low compared to peer communities.
Customer Base by Business Type:
The customer base varies slightly when compared by the various business types. When broken
down in this manner, the sample size of each category is small, but the data does confirm
expectations. For example, professional services (banking, insurance) have a localized base
while restaurants serve a broader geography.
Stoddard
1%
Professional
Wayne
8%
Ripley
5%
Rest MO
1%
Rest US
1%
Rest MO
8%
Rest US
5%
Stoddard
3%
Wayne
12%
Carter
2%
Ripley
4%
Poplar
Bluff
73%
Butler
9%
Restaurants
Carter
3%
Butler
12%
Poplar
Bluff
53%
Figure 8: Location of Poplar Bluff Customers by TYPE of Business.
Each category is broken down below by the percentage of the customer base represented by
residents of Poplar Bluff, Butler County, or who are visitors. The highest percentages across
categories are shown in red.
Professional (Banking, etc - 7 businesses)
Restaurant (2 businesses)
- 73% Poplar Bluff (63901)
- 53% Poplar Bluff (63901)
- 81% Butler County
- 2% Visitor
- 65% Butler County
- 12% Visitor
Hardware/Building Supply (3 businesses)
General Mdse. (3 businesses)
- 64% Poplar Bluff (63901)
- 75% Butler County
- 62% Poplar Bluff (63901)
- 71% Butler County
- 6% Visitor
- 6% Visitor
Clothing/Accessory/Gifts (4 businesses)
- 34% Poplar Bluff (63901)
Miscellaneous (3 businesses)
- 54% Poplar Bluff (63901)
- 44% Butler County
- 26% Visitor
- 68% Butler County
- 6% Visitor
10
2.2 Trade Area Definitions
The data above were presented simply as totals from each individual zip code. However, zip
codes vary by geographic area and total population and cannot be analyzed by total visits alone.
For example, there were 106 visits from Doniphan (63935) and 74 from the Fisk zip (63940).
This may suggest that Poplar Bluff has a deeper penetration into Doniphan. However, the total
population of the Doniphan zip is nearly eight times larger than the population of the Fisk zip.
Therefore, there is a much deeper penetration into Fisk (relative to its population) than
Doniphan.
In other words, market penetration cannot be determined simply by the total number of visits but
by visits in relation to population. The table below shows customer visits per 1,000 residents for
each of the highest representative zip codes.
Zip Code Area
63939
63901
63940
63967
63953
63932
63937
63954
63966
63945
63961
63944
63936
63955
63935
63965
63957
63960
63964
63933
63956
63638
63863
63943
72422
63822
63841
72454
63701
63801
72401
63901 IN
63901 OUT
Population
Visits
Visits/1000 Pop
Fairdealing
Poplar Bluff
Fisk
Williamsville
Naylor
Broseley
Ellsinore
Neelyville
Wappapello
Harviell
Qulin
Greenville
Dudley
Oxly
Doniphan
Van Buren
Piedmont
Puxico
Silva
Campbell
Patterson
Ellington
Malden
Grandin
Corning
Bernie
Dexter
Piggott
Cape Girardeau
Sikeston
Jonesboro
566
33,816
1,104
1,933
1,030
1,398
1,757
1,262
2,416
1,410
1,507
1,476
855
581
8,636
2,533
3,640
3,044
877
3,713
1,318
3,170
5,891
2,536
4,995
2,605
12,753
4,835
34,422
25,095
54,978
40
2,346
74
119
57
73
87
62
115
66
69
27
12
8
106
27
38
30
8
29
10
16
25
10
16
8
36
11
13
9
10
70.67
69.38
67.03
61.56
55.34
52.22
49.52
49.13
47.60
46.81
45.79
18.29
14.04
13.77
12.27
10.66
10.44
9.86
9.12
7.81
7.59
5.05
4.24
3.94
3.20
3.07
2.82
2.28
0.38
0.36
0.18
Poplar Bluff
Poplar Bluff
16,544
17,272
1499
831
90.61
48.11
Figure 9: Primary and Secondary Trade Areas. Visits per 1,000 population
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Because the number and type of participating businesses vary from community to community,
no specific number determines the primary and secondary trade areas. However, when
comparing visits per 1,000 population in relation to the time frame in which the survey was
conducted, breaks in the visits per 1,000 will begin to emerge. Whenever these breaks become
significant, this determines the differences in trade areas.
By this measure, Poplar Bluff’s Primary Retail Trade Area (PTA) is defined as the Poplar Bluff
(63901), Williamsville (63967), Fisk (63940), and Fairdealing (63939). These zips had more
than 61 customer visits per 1000 residents. Customers from these zip codes represented 68%
of the total visits during the survey period.
Seven additional zip codes had more than 45 visits per 1000 residents and made up Poplar
Bluff’s secondary trade area. Customers from these zips represented 14% of the total visits
during the survey period.
The map below illustrates the trade areas for Poplar Bluff. The primary trade area is shown in
orange, and the secondary is shown in purple.
Figure 10: Poplar Bluff PTA (orange) and STA (purple) trade areas.
The area in light blue in the map above represents a “tertiary” trade area. These eight additional
zip codes are ones that fall outside of Poplar Bluff’s local trade area, but with greater than 9
visits per 1000 populaiton, are areas where Poplar Bluff businesses are performing well. All
told, the PTA, STA, and tertiary trade area represent 89% of Poplar Bluff’s customer base.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Figure 11: Regional customer penetration.
The map above indicates the depth of the regional customer base by showing graduated colors
for zip codes based on the number of visits from each. It shows market reach over an
approximate fourteen county area, including several in Arkansas.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Market Definition Conclusions:
•
Poplar Bluff has a local-oriented customer base with 62% of its customers residing in the
63901 zip and 71% in Butler County.
•
While local oriented, Poplar Bluff serves a regional geographic area covering parts of
fourteen counties in Southeast Missouri and Northeast Arkansas. 92% of Poplar Bluff
customers span a seven county area including Butler, Wayne, Ripley, Carter, Stoddard,
Reynolds, and Clay County, AR.
•
Just 8% of Poplar Bluff’s customer base could be considered visitors. This is a small visitor
base when compared to peer communities. It should be noted however that visitors are
most likely to patronize destination-based businesses such as restaurants, specialty shops
and active uses.
The majority of businesses participating in Poplar Bluff’s zip code survey were chains and
local based businesses. The restaurants and specialty shops that did participate showed
visitor numbers that we are more used to seeing. For example, restaurants had 12% visitors
and clothing/specialty had 26% visitors.
•
Poplar Bluff’s local trade areas themselves are geographically broad. This local customer
base covers parts of six counties, which is typically much smaller in peer communities. In
fact, the local trade areas include eleven different zip codes, with another eight in a tertiary
trade area. Poplar Bluff therefore is the retail center of a large region.
•
Poplar Bluff’s primary regional competitive markets are Cape Girardeau and Sikeston in
Missouri, and Jonesboro and Paragould in Arkansas. Poplar Bluff’s trade areas spread out
somewhat evenly, and these competitors do not seem to affect the local market geography.
On the other hand, Poplar Bluff has very little market penetration in these areas. For
example, there were just nine visits from Sikeston during the survey, representing just 0.38
visits per 100 population.
•
Whenever there is a unique zip code (one from another state or far outside of the region),
that customer can be tracked from shop to shop to determine if any visitor browsing
occurring. There was a small sample of visitors in Poplar Bluff during the survey week, but
there was evidence that visitor browsing was occurring, particularly between restaurants and
the coliseum.
•
The market does vary by business type, with restaurants, clothing and gifts serving a
broader overall geography, as well as more visitors.
•
There is a discernable split within the 63901 zip code between residents who live in the City
of Poplar Bluff and those who live outside. When looking at visits per 1000 population, a city
resident is nearly twice as likely to shop in Poplar Bluff as a resident who lives in 63901 but
outside the city.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
2.3 Retail Market Analysis
Poplar Bluff and its retail offerings serve the market defined in the previous section. The
primary and secondary trade areas in particular are the basis for the analysis below. In this
section, Poplar Bluff’s retail market is examined to identify potential opportunities for retail
growth through three key studies:
1. A retail leakage gap analysis that will look at the primary and secondary trade areas to
see how much money is “leaking” from the area to stores in other areas.
2. From this, a space demand analysis will be developed to illustrate how much retail
space could potentially be brought back into Poplar Bluff based on the demand in the
market.
3. A retail shares analysis that examines performance of retail stores in Poplar Bluff’s
trade areas as a benchmark of the larger eight-county regional trade area. This study
will seek to determine if there are any retail-clustering opportunities for the community.
Retail Leakage Analysis
“Retail Leakage” refers to the difference between the retail expenditures by residents living in a
particular area and the retail sales produced by the stores located in the same area. If desired
products are not available within that area, consumers will travel to other places or use different
methods to obtain those products. Consequently, the dollars spent outside the area are said to
be “leaking.” If a community is a major retail center with a variety of stores, it will be “gaining”
rather than “leaking” retail sales. Even large communities may see leakage in certain retail
categories.
The data presented below come from Claritas, Inc., a national retail marketing service used by
town planners, retail and restaurant site planners, and national chains for their market research.
Claritas gets its data from a number of sources. Sales expenditures primarily come from the
Census for Retail Trade gathered on a county level by the US Census Bureau. Claritas updates
the data each year using local trade associations, local sales tax data, wage and employment
data, then allocates it block group levels. Overall, the sales data come from the following
sources: Census of Retail Trade; Annual Survey of Retail Trade; Claritas Business Facts;
Census of Employment and Wages; Sales Tax Reports; and various trade associations.
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Retail Leakage in the Primary and Secondary Trade Areas
For the previous year,
•
Stores in Poplar Bluff’s primary trade area sold $882 million in merchandise. Consumers
living in Poplar Bluff’s PTA spent $509 million in merchandise. Therefore, Poplar Bluff’s
PTA gained $373 million in sales last year.
•
Stores in Poplar Bluff’s secondary trade area sold $83 million in merchandise, while
residents in the same area spent $146 million in merchandise. Therefore, STA leaked $63
million in sales last year.
A similar leakage study completed for the City Limits of Poplar Bluff showed that $395 million of
total gain occurred in the municipality alone. This indicates that Poplar Bluff is indeed a retail
market center, pulling customers and sales from a large regional area. In fact, it is likely that
the majority of the leakage in the secondary trade area is coming back into Poplar Bluff.
Poplar Bluff’s primary trade area does show gain overall, yet on second look it appears that the
gain is specifically in certain categories. “Gain” indicates that stores in the area are selling more
than residents have the capacity to spend, meaning that customers are coming from outside the
trade area for that particular good. Poplar Bluff shows the largest gain in these categories:
o
Food & Beverage (Grocery, Specialty Foods, Beer & Wine stores) - $113 million
o
Motor Vehicle Dealers, Parts, & Related - $98 million
o
General Merchandising (Wal-Mart, Dollar General) - $77 million
o
Gas & Convenience stores - $47 million
o
Building Materials & Supply - $42 million
While the PTA gained $373 million, these five categories alone showed $377 million in gain.
Therefore, many of the remaining categories actually show leakage. Although retail leakage
may have a negative connotation, it translates to opportunity based on current demand. In this
light, there are a number of opportunities for retail recruitment into Poplar Bluff’s primary trade
area.
The table beginning on the following page details the consumer expenditures, retail sales, and
inflow/outflow of dollars by individual retail category within the local trade areas. Wherever there
is leakage, this translates to demand for retail growth in Poplar Bluff.
16
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
Opportunity Gap - Retail Stores
February 2012
PTA
(Retail Sales)
509,448,831
882,634,771
(373,185,940)
146,790,891
83,609,499
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers-441
Automotive Dealers-4411
Other Motor Vehicle Dealers-4412
Automotive Parts/Accsrs, Tire Stores-4413
78,311,025
65,707,118
6,280,301
6,323,606
176,442,377
153,096,328
7,063,792
16,282,257
(98,131,352)
(87,389,210)
(783,491)
(9,958,651)
21,666,603
17,915,060
1,925,511
1,826,032
12,365,586
8,954,752
1,195,515
2,215,319
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores-442
Furniture Stores-4421
Home Furnishing Stores-4422
9,173,890
4,778,063
4,395,827
14,182,727
12,049,788
2,132,939
(5,008,837)
(7,271,725)
2,262,888
2,569,324
1,318,406
1,250,918
0
0
0
2,569,324
1,318,406
1,250,918
Electronics and Appliance Stores-443
Appliances, TVs, Electronics Stores-44311
Household Appliances Stores-443111
Radio, Television, Electronics Stores-443112
Computer and Software Stores-44312
Camera and Photographic Equipment Stores-44313
10,093,846
7,561,219
1,844,872
5,716,347
2,091,733
440,894
12,617,222
12,617,222
7,783,986
4,833,236
0
0
(2,523,376)
(5,056,003)
(5,939,114)
883,111
2,091,733
440,894
2,814,153
2,113,507
527,349
1,586,158
579,583
121,063
172,075
172,075
0
172,075
0
0
2,642,078
1,941,432
527,349
1,414,083
579,583
121,063
Building Material, Garden Equip Stores -444
Building Material and Supply Dealers-4441
Home Centers-44411
Paint and Wallpaper Stores-44412
Hardware Stores-44413
Other Building Materials Dealers-44419
Building Materials, Lumberyards-444191
Lawn, Garden Equipment, Supplies Stores-4442
Outdoor Power Equipment Stores-44421
Nursery and Garden Centers-44422
44,822,942
40,326,107
16,221,523
966,593
4,137,540
19,000,451
7,650,510
4,496,835
753,123
3,743,712
87,342,122
74,106,303
40,688,840
944,177
10,357,948
22,115,338
8,647,085
13,235,819
0
13,235,819
(42,519,180)
(33,780,196)
(24,467,317)
22,416
(6,220,408)
(3,114,887)
(996,575)
(8,738,984)
753,123
(9,492,107)
13,135,118
11,769,990
4,726,794
279,262
1,211,747
5,552,187
2,217,346
1,365,128
231,161
1,133,967
2,568,107
873,379
360,039
0
180,805
332,535
130,023
1,694,728
0
1,694,728
10,567,011
10,896,611
4,366,755
279,262
1,030,942
5,219,652
2,087,323
(329,600)
231,161
(560,761)
Food and Beverage Stores-445
Grocery Stores-4451
Supermarkets, Grocery (Ex Conv) Stores-44511
Convenience Stores-44512
Specialty Food Stores-4452
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores-4453
75,135,819
68,308,876
64,645,221
3,663,655
2,111,490
4,715,453
188,449,011
184,707,329
177,297,015
7,410,314
1,107,107
2,634,575
(113,313,192)
(116,398,453)
(112,651,794)
(3,746,659)
1,004,383
2,080,878
22,072,417
20,106,718
19,019,249
1,087,469
620,024
1,345,675
26,206,635
20,982,333
18,781,275
2,201,058
4,182,404
1,041,898
(4,134,218)
(875,615)
237,974
(1,113,589)
(3,562,380)
303,777
Total Retail Sales Incl Eating and Drinking Places
17
Leakage
(Inflow)
(Consumer
Expenditures)
STA
(Consumer
Expenditures)
(Retail Sales)
Leakage
(Inflow)
63,181,392
9,301,017
8,960,308
729,996
(389,287)
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
Opportunity Gap - Retail Stores
February 2012
(Consumer
Expenditures)
PTA
(Retail Sales)
Leakage
(Inflow)
(Consumer
Expenditures)
STA
(Retail Sales)
Leakage
(Inflow)
Health and Personal Care Stores-446
Pharmancies and Drug Stores-44611
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies, Perfume Stores
Optical Goods Stores-44613
Other Health and Personal Care Stores-44619
34,349,018
29,629,588
1,236,512
1,284,227
2,198,691
47,281,824
45,907,627
75,704
790,197
508,296
(12,932,806)
(16,278,039)
1,160,808
494,030
1,690,395
10,175,332
8,785,550
367,060
370,735
651,987
0
0
0
0
0
10,175,332
8,785,550
367,060
370,735
651,987
Gasoline Stations-447
Gasoline Stations With Conv Stores-44711
Other Gasoline Stations-44719
54,179,568
41,184,555
12,995,013
101,537,896
74,117,900
27,419,996
(47,358,328)
(32,933,345)
(14,424,983)
16,265,765
12,363,292
3,902,473
30,852,029
17,676,183
13,175,846
(14,586,264)
(5,312,891)
(9,273,373)
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores-448
Clothing Stores-4481
Men's Clothing Stores-44811
Women's Clothing Stores-44812
Childrens, Infants Clothing Stores-44813
Family Clothing Stores-44814
Clothing Accessories Stores-44815
Other Clothing Stores-44819
Shoe Stores-4482
Jewelry, Luggage, Leather Goods Stores-4483
Jewelry Stores-44831
Luggage and Leather Goods Stores-44832
20,962,179
15,025,918
919,223
3,667,285
1,001,098
8,089,030
343,228
1,006,054
3,184,340
2,751,921
2,502,664
249,257
29,977,113
26,183,427
735,226
3,257,940
0
21,135,672
0
1,054,589
1,803,430
1,990,256
1,990,256
0
(9,014,934)
(11,157,509)
183,997
409,345
1,001,098
(13,046,642)
343,228
(48,535)
1,380,910
761,665
512,408
249,257
5,763,531
4,166,854
258,616
1,010,763
275,970
2,247,187
93,667
280,651
892,863
703,814
633,656
70,158
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5,763,531
4,166,854
258,616
1,010,763
275,970
2,247,187
93,667
280,651
892,863
703,814
633,656
70,158
9,224,085
6,523,970
3,201,456
2,183,836
554,520
584,158
2,700,115
1,822,023
1,700,726
121,297
878,092
7,785,297
6,880,744
2,838,792
2,437,515
685,182
919,255
904,553
665,872
665,872
0
238,681
1,438,788
(356,774)
362,664
(253,679)
(130,662)
(335,097)
1,795,562
1,156,151
1,034,854
121,297
639,411
2,529,053
1,818,535
882,104
615,829
162,783
157,819
710,518
472,148
437,017
35,131
238,370
1,777,037
1,777,037
1,091,857
0
685,180
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores-451
Sportng Goods, Hobby, Musical Inst Stores-4511
Sporting Goods Stores-45111
Hobby, Toys and Games Stores-45112
Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores-45113
Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores-45114
Book, Periodical and Music Stores-4512
Book Stores and News Dealers-45121
Book Stores-451211
News Dealers and Newsstands-451212
Prerecorded Tapes, CDs, Record Stores-45122
18
752,016
41,498
(209,753)
615,829
(522,397)
157,819
710,518
472,148
437,017
35,131
238,370
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
Opportunity Gap - Retail Stores
February 2012
(Consumer
Expenditures)
PTA
(Retail Sales)
Leakage
(Inflow)
(Consumer
Expenditures)
STA
(Retail Sales)
Leakage
(Inflow)
General Merchandise Stores-452
Department Stores Excl Leased Depts-4521
Other General Merchandise Stores-4529
69,027,933
31,765,644
37,262,289
145,735,298
59,755,663
85,979,635
(76,707,365)
(27,990,019)
(48,717,346)
19,900,200
9,021,266
10,878,934
1,468,300
0
1,468,300
18,431,900
9,021,266
9,410,634
Miscellaneous Store Retailers-453
Florists-4531
Office Supplies, Stationery, Gift Stores-4532
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores-45321
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores-45322
Used Merchandise Stores-4533
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers-4539
14,495,768
970,382
5,035,651
2,799,855
2,235,796
999,910
7,489,825
8,864,799
0
1,340,192
1,319,124
21,068
0
7,524,607
5,630,969
970,382
3,695,459
1,480,731
2,214,728
999,910
(34,782)
4,348,758
281,489
1,427,294
793,982
633,312
272,847
2,367,128
173,621
2,255
0
0
0
10,017
161,349
4,175,137
279,234
1,427,294
793,982
633,312
262,830
2,205,779
Non-Store Retailers-454
38,484,598
5,778,663
32,705,935
11,009,053
1,824,840
9,184,213
Foodservice and Drinking Places-722
Full-Service Restaurants-7221
Limited-Service Eating Places-7222
Special Foodservices-7223
Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages-7224
51,188,160
22,861,622
21,476,172
4,226,990
2,623,376
56,640,422
29,128,427
20,483,920
5,838,430
1,189,645
(5,452,262)
(6,266,805)
992,252
(1,611,440)
1,433,731
14,541,584
6,470,891
6,116,123
1,204,016
750,554
6,201,269
1,384,520
4,233,397
0
583,352
8,340,315
5,086,371
1,882,726
1,204,016
167,202
123,517,584
69,027,933
20,962,179
9,173,890
10,093,846
9,224,085
5,035,651
211,637,849
145,735,298
29,977,113
14,182,727
12,617,222
7,785,297
1,340,192
(88,120,265)
(76,707,365)
(9,014,934)
(5,008,837)
(2,523,376)
1,438,788
3,695,459
35,003,555
19,900,200
5,763,531
2,569,324
2,814,153
2,529,053
1,427,294
3,417,412
1,468,300
0
0
172,075
1,777,037
0
31,586,143
18,431,900
GAFO *
General Merchandise Stores-452
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores-448
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores-442
Electronics and Appliance Stores-443
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores-451
Office Supplies, Stationery, Gift Stores-4532
Figure 12: Retail Leakage by Category in Poplar Bluff’s Primary and Secondary Trade Areas. Source: Claritas, Inc.
19
5,763,531
2,569,324
2,642,078
752,016
1,427,294
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2
While not shown in the table above, the market analysis also included a retail leakage study
the City, Butler County, and the eight-county trade area (Butler, Carter, Wayne, Rip
Reynolds, Stoddard, Dunklin, and Clay County Arkansas). This was done in an effort to iso
opportunity in individual categories, but also determine retail demand in the larger regio
market served by Poplar Bluff.
In the eight-county trade area in particular, the majority of retail categories show dema
These areas provide and opportunity for Poplar Bluff to capture additional customer base a
expanded retail. On the other hand, it is this larger region from which Poplar Bluff m
compete for customers with other retail centers such as Cape Girardeau and Jonesboro.
Opportunity Gap - Retail Stores
PBC Trade Area
Demand
Other Motor Vehicle Dealers-4412
Furniture Stores-4421
Home Furnishing Stores-4422
Radio, Television, Electronics Stores-443112
Computer and Software Stores-44312
Home Centers-44411
Paint and Wallpaper Stores-44412
Hardware Stores-44413
Outdoor Power Equipment Stores-44421
Specialty Food Stores-4452
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores-4453
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies, Perfume Stores
Optical Goods Stores-44613
Men's Clothing Stores-44811
Women's Clothing Stores-44812
Childrens, Infants Clothing Stores-44813
Family Clothing Stores-44814
Shoe Stores-4482
Jewelry Stores-44831
Hobby, Toys and Games Stores-45112
Book Stores-451211
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores-45321
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores-45322
Used Merchandise Stores-4533
Full-Service Restaurants-7221
Limited-Service Eating Places-7222
Special Foodservices-7223
Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages-7224
13,968,725
1,876,013
14,284,437
14,050,304
1,192,200
6,409,720
2,377,034
2,137,678
2,003,434
2,431,122
9,682,610
4,626,992
4,170,512
2,886,173
10,115,690
3,939,284
7,473,840
8,170,557
5,567,023
4,215,449
5,707,200
9,690,261
8,109,592
2,574,760
36,469,196
31,944,092
7,402,650
6,144,161
Figure 13: Retail Demand (Leakage) in the eight-County regional trade area. Source: Claritas, Inc.
20
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Space Demand Analysis
While there is a certain amount of leakage in specific categories, Poplar Bluff cannot reasonably
expect to recapture 100% of the sales leaking from its trade areas. As much as consumers shop
for everyday items that they need, shopping itself is an activity. People will continue to travel to
other places to get certain goods or services, to shop online, or to shop in catalogs. Therefore,
we must look at a potential capture scenario that might illustrate the potential for additional retail
should some of the lost revenues be captured in the categories where retail leakage exists.
Through strategic recruitment, economic development and marketing, a community can
reasonably expect to recapture a certain amount of sales that are leaking out of the area.
Typically, a community could capture 20% of leakage from the primary trade area (one in every
five dollars) and 10% of the leakage from the secondary trade area (one in every ten dollars).
The table below illustrates the new or expanded retail space that could be supported in Poplar
Bluff by capturing some of the leaking sales. The table also shows supportable retail space by
square footage for individual retail categories. The sales per square foot for retail store types
have been obtained from Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers, published by ULI.
Retail Stores
Selected Retail Categories Below
Furniture Stores
Home Furnishing Stores
Household Appliances Stores
Radio, Television, Electronics Stores
Computer and Software Stores
Camera and Photographic Equipment Stores
Building Material and Supply Dealers
Hardware Stores
Grocery Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Women's Accessory & Specialty
Shoe Stores
Jewelry Stores
Luggage and Leather Goods Stores
Sporting Goods Stores
Hobby, Toys and Games Stores
Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores
Book Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Florists
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores
Foodservice and Drinking Places
Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages
20% of PTA
Outflow
(52,399,455)
(1,454,345)
452,578
(1,187,823)
176,622
418,347
88,179
(6,756,039)
(1,244,082)
(23,279,691)
(2,586,561)
(2,231,502)
81,869
276,182
102,482
49,851
72,533
(50,736)
(26,132)
206,971
(15,341,473)
194,076
442,946
(1,090,452)
286,746
10% 0f STA
Outflow
6,138,563
131,841
125,092
52,735
141,408
57,958
12,106
1,089,661
103,094
(87,562)
1,017,533
416,685
101,076
89,286
63,366
7,016
(20,975)
61,583
(52,240)
43,702
1,843,190
27,923
63,331
834,032
16,720
Potential
Capture
577,669
318,031
476,305
100,285
182,945
365,468
165,847
56,867
51,558
10,847
250,673
222,000
506,277
303,466
Sales per
Square
Foot
Calculated
Capture
141.84
167.75
245.44
207.17
207.17
542.63
142.38
121.08
371.79
247.29
164.60
164.60
158.81
263.92
198.82
153.46
146.28
74.91
161.16
133.90
149.82
168.55
201.63
88.07
21,687
0
3,444
0
1,535
2,299
185
0
0
0
0
0
1,111
2,301
628
286
336
74
0
1,555
0
1,482
3,004
0
3,446
Figure 14: 20/10 Capture Scenario for Poplar Bluff. Sources: Claritas, Inc., Dollars & Cents of Shopping
Centers, Arnett Muldrow & Associates.
Based on this scenario table, Poplar Bluff’s trade areas show demand for up to 21,687 square
feet of additional retail space. This is a conservative figure based on the needs of residents
living in the trade areas, and there is greater opportunity for expansion by meeting the demand
of the larger eight-county regional trade area.
21
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Retail Shares Analysis
The retail shares analysis compares Poplar Bluff’s primary trade area businesses as proportion
of a larger region. This analysis is used to benchmark selected retail categories to determine if
particular retail types are underperforming (representing an opportunity for expansion) or
performing exceptionally well (representing an opportunity for clustering related businesses
around a certain strength). For the purposes of this study, Poplar Bluff’s primary trade area is
compared to the eight-county regional trade area
Figure 15: Retail Shares Study Area. Sources: Arnett Muldrow & Associates.
The total sales for all businesses in the primary trade area account for a 40.3% share of all retail
within the eight-county trade area shown above. It should be noted that a 40% share is a large
amount in relation to such a large geographic region. Again, this points to the fact that Poplar
Bluff is a significant retail center within the region.
22
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Anything significantly above the benchmark share of 40.3% in the PTA would represent a
clustering opportunity. This means that Poplar Bluff has a larger portion of regional retail sales
in that category. That particular category is a regional attractor and there may be the potential
for expansion in an effort to build a cluster. There may also be a need to market and position
the community as a destination for a particular use.
Anything significantly below the benchmark suggests there is a general lack of supply in that
category. This would point us back to the retail leakage study to determine if there is enough
opportunity to support additional space in Poplar Bluff.
8 County Trade Area
Retail Shares Analysis
Sales
Primary
Total Retail Sales
Furniture Stores
Home Furnishing Stores
Household Appliances Stores
Home Centers
Hardware Stores
Optical Goods Stores
Men's Clothing Stores
Women's Clothing Stores
Family Clothing Stores
Book Stores
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores
8 County
Share
%
$882,634,771
$2,191,584,124
40.3%
$12,049,788
$2,132,939
$7,783,986
$40,688,840
$10,357,948
$790,197
$735,226
$3,257,940
$21,135,672
$665,872
$1,319,124
$16,523,525
$2,931,907
$8,705,267
$57,867,597
$14,374,568
$790,197
$735,226
$4,072,674
$24,135,532
$665,872
$1,319,124
72.9%
72.7%
89.4%
70.3%
72.1%
100.0%
100.0%
80.0%
87.6%
100.0%
100.0%
Figure 16: Shares Analysis for Primary Trade Area. Source: Claritas, Inc.
The shares study shows a number of business types that are perfoming well within the region,
and these are shown in the table above. Generally, the ability to build retail clusters is centered
on destination based retail, such as restaurants, antiques, furniture, etc.
23
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Poplar Bluff Existing Retail Market
As a center of commerce for a rural region, Poplar Bluff’s existing retail market is somewhat
robust with a mixture of local and regional shopping centers, as well as a concentration of
national chains. Key centers range from downtown Poplar Bluff, to the numerous shopping
centers and stand alone businesses along Westwood Boulevard. The primary retail locations
and corridors include:
•
•
•
•
Downtown core – Downtown has a mixture of office, government uses, retail, and
residential. It serves as the center of government for Poplar Bluff and Butler County. While
destinations such as the Black River Coliseum and the Rogers Theater are located here,
downtown Poplar Bluff is a struggling retail center. Little if any new investment is occurring
in downtown, and it includes more low-end businesses and buildings in disrepair.
Westwood Boulevard – Highway 67 Business/Westwood Boulevard is the primary
commercial corridor in the community and the location of the majority of Poplar Bluff
businesses. Key centers include:
o Mansion Mall is the largest shopping center in the community and includes a number
of national chains such as Goody’s, Dollar General, Hibbett Sports, Maurice’s, etc.
This center has recently been expanded and businesses continue to locate or
relocate here.
o Ozark Plaza includes a number of health and fitness related uses, as well as
assorted services businesses.
o Westwood Village Shopping Center is anchored by K-Mart and includes a number of
other retail chains, financial services, and specialty retail.
o Poplar Bluff Square has Big Lots, Colton’s Steak House, and other uses.
o Bluff Estates Shopping Center is an older center that includes the destination
business La Boutique, as well as Subway, the UPS Store, and others.
o Valley Plaza has seen a number of its businesses move to the nearby Mansion Mall,
and is now anchored by the Dollar Tree, Goodwill, Hallmark, and Godfather’s Pizza.
o Sycamore Plaza is a small center with various health related uses and retail.
o Wal-Mart Shopping Center is anchored by Wal-Mart, but also includes several
additional shops such as Murphy Express and Whitworth’s Jewelry.
Highway 53 – is a corridor south of town, and includes a number of standalone retailers,
services, auto, thrift and financial uses.
South Broadway – is a corridor south of downtown that links to State Highway 53. It
includes South Town Mall shopping center and various other retailers and businesses.
All told, there is a tremendous amount of retail space in the Poplar Bluff market in both older
shopping strips, as well as newer regional centers. While many of the area businesses exist in
dated or transitioning retail centers, there is not a tremendous amount of vacant space in Poplar
Bluff. Finally, Poplar Bluff has a number of national and regional retail chains, much more than
a typical for a community of 17,000. Chains not mentioned previously include, among others:
- Home Depot
- Office Depot
- Radio Shack
- Gamestop
- Kroger
- Aldi
- Orscheln
- Applebee’s
- Fred’s
- Marble Slab
- JC Penney
- Ashley Home
24
- Sav-A-Lot
- Perkins
- Hastings
- Ryan’s
- Payless
- Rue 21
- Walgreen’s
- Sears
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Competitive Retail Markets
The residents of Poplar Bluff and its primary trade area are served well by the local retail
offerings. However, Poplar Bluff must compete with other areas in regard to potential
consumers residing within the larger eight-county regional trade area. Poplar Bluff’s primary
retail competitors within a ninety-minute drive include:
Sikeston, MO (48 miles, 16,000 population)
Paragould, AR (65 miles, 26,000 population)
Cape Girardeau, MO (78 miles, 38,000 population)
Jonesboro, AR (80 miles, 67,000 population)
Nearest Chains
Poplar Bluff
General Merchandising
Wal-Mart Super
PB
Sam's Club
Target
Costco
Department/Clothes
JCPenney
PB
Goody's
PB
Belk
Maurices
PB
Office Supplies
Office Depot
PB
Office Max
Staples
Home Improvement
Home Depot
PB
Lowe's
Ace
PB
Grocery
Kroger
PB
Aldi
PB
Electronics
Hastings
PB
Best Buy
Pharmacy
Walgreen's
PB
Restaurant
Buffalo Wild Wings
PB
Colton's
PB
Ryan's
PB
Sporting Goods
Hibbett Sports
PB
Dicks
Bass Pro
Nearest
Miles
Next
Dexter, MO
Cape Girardeau, MO
Jonesboro, AR
Memphis, TN
24.2
81
79.6
160
Walden, MO
Jonesboro, AR
Cape Girardeau, MO
St. Louis, MO
Sikeston, MO
Sikeston, MO
Paragould, AR
Jonesboro, AR
47.6
48.1
48.8
80.1
Cape Girardeau, MO
Murray, KY
Memphis, TN
Dyersburg, TN
Jonesboro, AR
Jonesboro, AR
Cape Girardeau, MO
79.6
80.1
80.1
Paducah, KY
Farmington, MO
Memphis, TN
Jonesboro, AR
Sikeston, MO
Corning, AR
82.5
47.3
29.2
Paducah, KY
Paragould, AR
Pocahontas, AR
Jonesboro, AR
Kennett, MO
86
46.9
Dyersburg, TN
Sikeston, MO
Jonesboro, AR
Jonesboro, AR
79.5
79.7
Cape Girardeau, MO
Cape Girardeau, MO
Sikeston, MO
48.7
Paragould, AR
Cape Girardeau, MO
Jonesboro, AR
Sikeston, MO
80.7
81.4
48.7
Jonesboro, AR
Farmington, MO
Cape Girardeau, MO
Kennett, MO
Paducah, KS
Memphis, TN
46.9
126
157
Sikeston, MO
Jackson, TN
St. Charles MO
Figure 17: Closest National Chains by Category.
25
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Similarly, there are a number of major retail centers within ninety-minutes that Poplar Bluff must
compete with for regional consumers, but also provide shopping alternatives to local residents.
In major malls alone, there are 300 stores and nearly 2.8 million square feet of retail space.
Source: Directory of Major Malls, Inc.
Total Major Shopping Centers
Total Gross Leasable Area (GLA)
Total Stores
Data Note: n/a means data was not reported.
Major Shopping Center Name and Address
Distance from Year
Type and Number of Stores
site in miles Open
River Birch Mall
45.91 E
1972
Sikeston, MO 63801
N/A, 46 Stores
Anchors: River Birch Antique Glry., Flea Market, Dollar General, Oak Furniture
7
2,774,911
300
GLA in
square feet
289,664
Town West Center
Paragould, AR 72450
N/A, 16 Stores
Anchors: Lowe's, Belk, Country Mart
48.92 S
1987
259,828
West Park Mall
Cape Girardeau, MO 63703
Enclosed, 72 Stores
Anchors: JCPenney, Macy's, Barnes & Noble, Macy's II
59.31 NE
1981
511,109
Porter Commons
Blytheville, AR 72315
N/A, 12 Stores
Anchors: Walmart
64.60 SE
1999
347,830
The Mall at Turtle Creek
Jonesboro, AR 72401
Enclosed, 100 Stores
Anchors: Target, Dillard's, JCPenney
66.52 S
2006
800,000
The Shoppes at CaraLand
Jonesboro, AR 72401
N/A, 44 Stores
Anchors: Sears
66.56 S
1967
326,480
Bernard Court
Jonesboro, AR 72401
N/A, 10 Stores
Anchors: Walmart Supercenter
66.72 S
1993
240,000
Figure 18: Major Shopping Centers within ninety-minutes. Source: ESRI. Directory of Major Malls, Inc.
26
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
2.4 Retail Pull Factor
A method to determine an area’s competitiveness is by calculating a retail “pull factor”. Similar
to a retail shares analysis, it is a supply-side study that provides a broader perspective on the
relative strength of a community’s retail base. Pull Factor is determined simply by dividing
Poplar Bluff’s per capita retail sales by Missouri’s per capita sales. The figures below are based
on the most recent sales data from Claritas, Inc, as well as the US Census.
Missouri
Poplar Bluff
PTA
Butler County
Carter
Reynolds
Ripley
Wayne
Stoddard
Dunklin
Clay, AR
Total Retail Sales
2010 Population
Per Capita Retail Sales
Pull Factor
$92,080,160,799
5,988,927
$15,375.07
n/a
$600,803,448
$882,634,771
$930,912,183
17,023
37,419
42,794
$35,293.63
$23,587.88
$21,753.33
2.30
1.53
1.41
$16,492,311
6,265
$2,632.45
$49,504,282
6,696
$7,393.11
$120,715,059
14,100
$8,561.35
$123,472,665
13,521
$9,131.92
$402,112,333
29,968
$13,418.06
$433,862,675
31,953
$13,578.15
$114,512,596
16,083
$7,120.10
Figure 19: Regional Retail Sales Pull Factors. Source: Claritas, US Census.
0.17
0.48
0.56
0.59
0.87
0.88
0.46
The data is shown for Poplar Bluff and the eight-county regional trade area. A pull factor figure
greater than one suggests the area is pulling in sales beyond the customer base that lives within
the respective area. A factor less than one means that the community is losing sales to areas
outside.
At 1.41, Butler County has a high pull factor, indicating once again that it is pulling in retail sales
from a large region. This means that Butler is experiencing about 1.4 times the amount of retail
sales typical in Missouri. In fact, Butler’s pull factor is well above any of the counties in the
eight-county regional trade area. Only Stoddard and Dunklin Counties have close to a 1.0 pull
factor, which would mean that the community has balanced retail sales compared to its
population.
Of course, the majority of Butler County’s retail trade is located within the primary trade area
(PTA) and the municipal limits Poplar Bluff. These areas have even larger pull factors of 1.53
and 2.30 respectively.
27
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Figure 20: Regional Retail Sales Pull Factors. Source: Claritas, US Census.
28
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Retail Analysis Conclusions:
Poplar Bluff serves as a retail magnet for a broad geographic region. The current supply and
retail sales data show that Poplar Bluff stores are selling more than the local resident market
base has the capacity to buy, and therefore is pulling in retail sales from outside of the
community and beyond. This translates to limited demand for expansion based on the needs
Poplar Bluff’s citizens alone. However, the data does show opportunities for recruitment and
expanded retail based on demand from the primary and secondary trade areas and beyond.
•
•
Based on the retail leakage, space demand and shares analyses, the categories listed
below show the most opportunity in Poplar Bluff’s primary and secondary trade areas:
o
Home furnishings – There is a combined leakage of $3.5 million in the primary and
secondary trade areas. This equates to about 3,400 square feet of space. As a
frame of reference, a Pier One is approximately 7,500 to 15,000 square feet. Of
course, not all home furnishing businesses are this large, and the data suggests that
Poplar Bluff could support another store.
o
Gift Stores – The local trade areas show a combined leakage of around $2.8 million
and a demand of about 3,000 square feet of space. With a typical Hallmark store
being around 2,500 to 3,500 square feet, it is evident that Poplar Bluff can support
another business. This particular category can also be important in establishing a
visitor base, with stores like La Boutique serving as a destination business.
o
Computer & Software, Electronics Stores – The primary and secondary trade
areas leaked $5.5 million in these categories last year. While this isn’t a tremendous
amount of leakage, it does translate to about 4,000 square feet of space demand.
Consumer electronics stores range size from Radio Shacks (beginning at 2,500
square feet) to Best Buy (upwards of 45,000 square feet).
o
Shoe Stores – There is $2.2 million in leakage from the local trade areas, with
demand for about 2,300 square feet of space. Poplar Bluff could support another
Payless-type chain store (around 2,800 square feet) or independent shoe seller.
o
Books – With the likes of Amazon and other online booksellers, this category has
struggled in recent years, particularly with independently owned businesses. Still,
the retail leakage and space demand study shows potential for about 1,500 square
feet of space.
Several other categories still show demand in the local trade areas, yet not enough to fully
support additional stores. These categories still present an opportunity for existing
businesses to expand, or perhaps go into a broader product line:
o
Women’s Accessory
o
Jewelry
o
Luggage & Leather Goods
o
Sporting Goods
o
Florists
o
Hobby, Game & Toy
o
Drinking Places
29
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
•
February 2012
Of course, the market definition exercise, retail shares study, and pull factor analysis all
show that Poplar Bluff serves a larger geography than simply the PTA and STA. Within the
eight-county regional trade area, the following categories show growth potential:
o
Restaurants - $36 million in leakage in full-service (sit down) restaurants, and $32
million in limited service (fast food). This is a key category as it has the potential to
be on the leading edge of drawing consumers in from a broader area.
o
Home Furnishings - $14 million in leakage. Poplar Bluff has a 73% share of the
regional sales in this category, yet still has demand from within the local trade areas.
o
Consumer Electronics - $14 million in leakage from the eight-county trade area.
o
Office Supplies - $10 million in leakage, with Poplar Bluff having 100% share.
o
Clothing – Several categories show opportunity from within the region including
Women’s ($10 million, 80% share), Family ($7 million, 88% share), and Children ($4
million in leakage).
o
Gift Stores - $8 million in regional demand.
o
Shoes - $8 million in regional demand.
o
Books - $6 million in regional demand.
o
Hobby, Toy & Game - $4 million in demand from the eight-county region.
It is important to note that while there is leakage in the categories above, Poplar Bluff’s
regional trade area likely overlaps with that of nearby retail centers of Jonesboro, Cape
Girardeau, Paragould, and even Sikeston. In order for Poplar Bluff to stake a claim at some
of this regional demand, it must be strategic with marketing, as well as recruiting business
that complement regional offerings.
•
Poplar Bluff and Butler County have a stronghold in retail sales from the surrounding eight
county region, with 40% of all regional sales occurring in the Primary Trade Area. Not only
does this show that Poplar Bluff is a retail magnet, but also provides data that may support
the opportunity to build clusters around certain categories. Destination-based retail that
show a much larger share than the 40% benchmark include furniture, home furnishings,
clothing, and others.
•
Poplar Bluff currently has many of the typical chain stores including a number that aren’t
always found in a community of 17,000 people. Of the chains that Poplar Bluff does not
have, many exist with in a ninety-minute drive (Sam’s Club, Target, Best Buy, Lowe’s, Belk,
Staples, etc.)
•
When comparing retail sales figures of Missouri to that of Butler County and surrounding
areas, the local retail market shows a relatively high pull factor compared to that of nearby
counties. At 1.41, Butler Counties pull factor is nearly twice that of any other county in the
eight-county region. Poplar Bluff proper (2.3 pull factor) is nearly three times that of adjacent
counties.
30
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
3.0 Demographics and Market Segmentation
This section will look at the demographic makeup of Poplar Bluff and the region including
general trend data for population, income, and housing. The snapshot uses the most recently
available US Census data from 2010. Certain geographies, particularly at the zip code level,
were not published by the Census Bureau as of the drafting of this report.
3.1 Demographic Snapshot
The following charts compare population and income levels for Poplar Bluff and the larger
region. For the purposes of this analysis, Poplar Bluff is compared to nearby communities and
counties as well as the eight-county regional trade area. In each chart, the City of Poplar Bluff is
shown in red, the primary trade area in orange, and the secondary trade area in purple.
1990
US
MO
Poplar Bluff
PTA
STA
TTA
8-County TA
63901 - PB
Population
Total Population
2000
2010
248,709,873 281,421,906 308,745,538
5,117,073
5,595,211
5,988,927
Percent Growth
1990-2000 2000-2010
13.15%
9.34%
9.71%
7.04%
17,334
34,582
10,069
20,893
154,901
30,991
16,651
36,522
11,208
22,759
160,734
32,662
17,023
161,380
34,665
-3.94%
5.61%
11.31%
8.93%
3.77%
5.39%
2.23%
Dexter
Malden
Sikeston
Piggot, AR
Cape Girardeau
Paragould, AR
Jonesboro, AR
7,712
5,163
17,750
3,889
34,948
18,827
46,904
7,356
4,782
16,992
3,894
35,349
22,017
55,515
7,864
4,275
16,318
3,849
37,941
26,113
67,263
Butler County
Carter Co
Reynolds Co
Ripley Co
Wayne Co
Dunklin Co
Stoddard Co
Clay Co AR
38,765
5,515
6,661
12,303
11,543
33,112
28,895
18,107
40,867
5,941
6,689
13,509
13,259
33,155
29,705
17,609
42,794
6,265
6,696
14,100
13,521
31,953
29,968
16,083
1990
Households
Total Households
Percent Growth
2000
2010
1990-2000
2000-2010
91,947,410
1,961,206
105,480,101
2,194,594
116,716,292
2,375,611
14.72%
11.90%
10.65%
8.25%
1.47%
0.86%
6.13%
7,077
7,181
0.40%
6.13%
7,192
13,673
3,943
8,188
61,414
12,292
14,964 4,591 9,209 65,676
13,389
66,242
14,210
-1.60%
9.44%
16.43%
12.47%
6.94%
8.92%
-4.62%
-7.38%
-4.27%
0.13%
1.15%
16.94%
18.36%
6.91%
-10.60%
-3.97%
-1.16%
7.33%
18.60%
21.16%
3,299
1,972
6,811
1,708
13,636
7,544
18,113
3,237
1,914
6,779
1,726
14,380
8,941
22,219
3,359
1,780
6,749
1,695
15,205
10,288
26,111
-1.88%
-2.94%
-0.47%
1.05%
5.46%
18.52%
22.67%
3.77%
-7.00%
-0.44%
-1.80%
5.74%
15.07%
17.52%
5.42%
7.72%
0.42%
9.80%
14.87%
0.13%
2.80%
-2.75%
4.72%
5.45%
0.10%
4.37%
1.98%
-3.63%
0.89%
-8.67%
15,334
2,128
2,542
4,788
4,607
13,128
11,383
7,504
16,718
2,378
2,721
5,416
5,551
13,411
12,064
7,417
17,614
2,559
2,778
5,637
5,717
12,837
12,255
6,845
9.03%
11.75%
7.04%
13.12%
20.49%
2.16%
5.98%
-1.16%
5.36%
7.61%
2.09%
4.08%
2.99%
-4.28%
1.58%
-7.71%
-
Figure 21: Regional Population and Household Change 1990-2010. Source: Claritas Inc. US Census.
31
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Population Change - 1990-2000
20.00%
15.00%
8.93%
10.00%
5.61%
5.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-3.94%
Jonesboro, AR
Paragould, AR
Wayne Co
STA
Ripley Co
TTA
Carter Co
PTA
Butler Co
63901 - PB
8-County TA
Stoddard Co
Cape Girardeau
Reynolds Co
Dunklin Co
Piggot, AR
Clay Co AR
Poplar Bluff
Sikeston
Dexter
Malden
0.00%
Figure 22: Regional Population Change 1990-2000. Source: Claritas Inc. US Census.
•
The region generally grew during this time period, with a number of areas experiencing
population decline. The Jonesboro and Paragould area to the south grew by the greatest
amount at 18.36% and 16.94% respectively.
•
Poplar Bluff declined in population by 3.94% between 1990 and 2000. However, Butler
County (5.42%), the PTA (5.61%), and the STA (8.93%), all experienced healthy population
growth during this time.
Population Change - 2000-2010
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
Malden
Clay Co AR
Sikeston
Dunklin Co
Piggot, AR
Reynolds Co
8-County TA
Stoddard Co
Wayne Co
Butler Co
Carter Co
63901 - PB
Dexter
Poplar Bluff
-15.00%
Cape Girardeau
-10.00%
Paragould, AR
-5.00%
Jonesboro, AR
0.00%
Ripley Co
2.23%
5.00%
Figure 23: Regional Population Change 2000-2010. Source: Claritas Inc. US Census.
•
Population between 2000 and 2010 showed a very similar trend, although the City of Poplar
Bluff reversed population decline to gain 2.23% during that time frame.
32
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Household Growth - 2000-2010
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
Clay Co AR
Malden
Dunklin Co
Piggot, AR
Sikeston
8-County TA
Poplar Bluff
Stoddard Co
Reynolds Co
Wayne Co
Dexter
Ripley Co
Butler Co
Cape Girardeau
63901 - PB
Carter Co
-10.00%
Paragould, AR
-5.00%
Jonesboro, AR
0.00%
1.47%
Figure 24: Household Growth 2000-2010. Source: Claritas Inc. US Census.
•
Household growth between 2000 and 2010 mirrored that of population, with Jonesboro &
Paragould seeing the greatest growth.
•
Poplar Bluff (1.47%) and Butler County (5.74%) also saw growth in number of households.
US
MO
Income
Demographics
2010
2010 Miscellaneous
MHI
Per Cap Unit Value Med Age HH Size Travel Time Year Built
$51,914 $27,334
$188,400
2.58
37.20
27.59
1975
$46,262 $24,724
$137,700
37.90
2.45
25.36
1974
Poplar Bluff
63901 - PB
$25,455
-
$17,660
-
$82,900
-
38.40
39.90
2.28
2.38
14.17
16.96
1967
1975
Dexter
Malden
Sikeston
Piggot, AR
Cape Girardeau
Paragould, AR
Jonesboro, AR
$31,926
$26,178
$32,612
$26,486
$39,284
$45,790
$37,368
$25,477
$14,433
$19,936
$20,457
$21,680
$17,872
$22,481
$75,800
$52,300
$97,300
$72,800
$127,100
$94,900
$125,700
40.50
39.40
38.50
43.50
32.10
36.00
31.30
2.28
2.34
2.37
2.20
2.27
2.48
2.45
19.13
20.16
17.09
21.74
17.05
19.78
18.00
1969
1968
1972
1970
1972
1979
1984
Butler County
Carter Co
Reynolds Co
Ripley Co
Wayne Co
Dunklin Co
Stoddard Co
Clay Co AR
$33,525
$28,408
$32,059
$29,369
$30,621
$29,375
$35,932
$29,066
$19,368
$15,881
$16,964
$15,115
$17,105
$16,619
$20,911
$18,892
$87,700
$88,100
$76,300
$68,100
$72,200
$67,300
$80,800
$59,800
40.60
41.20
44.60
42.10
45.80
39.30
41.10
43.20
2.38
2.43
2.37
2.49
2.34
2.44
2.39
2.33
18.31
27.16
27.70
24.40
25.74
24.19
23.37
24.60
1975
1976
1973
1976
1975
1969
1971
1970
Figure 25: Regional Income and Demographic Data. Source: Claritas Inc. US Census.
33
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
2010 Median Household Income
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
$33,525
$25,455
Figure 26: Regional 2010 Household Income. US Census.
•
The larger communities in the region (Paragould, Cape Girardeau, and Jonesboro) had the
highest median household income in 2010.
•
At $25,455, the City of Poplar Bluff had the lowest median household income. This was
nearly $15,000 less than that of Cape Girardeau.
•
Butler County median household income was in the upper third of the region.
2010 Housing Unit Value
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
$82,900
Figure 27: 2010 Occupied Housing Unit Value. US Census.
•
At $82,900, Poplar Bluff sits in the middle of regional occupied housing unit value.
•
Cape Girardeau ($127,100) and Jonesboro ($125,700) have the highest values.
34
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
3.2 Market Segmentation
A market segmentation report for Poplar Bluff’s trade areas will give a better idea of the make
up and spending habits of the residents living in the local market. This analysis breaks down
the counts and percentages of social group cluster and helps identify customers based on their
demographic groupings including age, gender, income, education, occupation, and ethnic
group. By recognizing the different segments of the market and analyzing their various needs
and requirements, a business can more effectively focus its marketing dollars or build its
inventory around the targeted market. For this analysis, all data comes from PRIZM NE cluster
groups from Claritas, Inc. The PRIZM cluster groups are centered on four groups of
urbanization: Urban, Second Cities, Suburbs, and Town & Rural.
For Poplar Bluff’s combined primary and secondary trade areas, there are approximately
20,221 households, all of which fall into the “Town and Rural” category. The Town and Rural
urbanization is then broken down into social group categories as shown in the chart below.
Social Group Segmentation
Country
Comfort
14%
Landed Gentry
4%
Middle America
23%
Rustic Living
59%
Figure 28: Social Group Segmentation for combined Primary and Secondary Trade Area.
The four Town and Rural categories are:
•
Rustic Living (59% of Poplar Bluff’s market) – modest income families in rural communities,
blue-collar jobs and lower education, mix of white and black, married and unmarried.
•
Middle America (23%) – middle class families, predominantly white, married couples to
large families, conservative values and conservative lifestyles.
•
Country Comfort (14%) – middle class families and married couples, college educated with
mid-level incomes.
•
Landed Gentry (4%) – wealthy households living in smaller towns, college educated with
professional jobs and higher incomes, many commute or telecommute.
35
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Life Stage Groups
The combined trade area is then grouped by life stage categories. Claritas PRIZM Life Stage
categories are based on affluence, the age of the households, as well as the family type, or
presence of children. There are three classes of life stage including “Younger Years,” “Family
Life,” and “Mature Years.”
Life Stage Segmentation
Family Life,
20%
Younger Years,
34%
Mature Years,
46%
Figure 29: Life State Segmentation for combined Primary and Secondary Trade Area.
Poplar Bluff’s trade areas are split between older citizens and younger singles & families,
although it generally has an aging population.
36
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
All Market Segments
Finally, each of these social and life stage groups can be broken down into detailed
subcategories as identified in the chart below. The chart represents a breakdown of all the
segments in the overall market base in Poplar Bluff’s combined trade area.
Market Segmentation
Fast-Track Families
2%
Big Sky Families
3%
Shotguns and
Pickups
4%
Blue Highways
4%
Crossroads Villagers
13%
Back Country Folks
12%
Old Milltowns
9%
Mayberry-ville
4%
Traditional Times
5%
Young and Rustic
9%
Heartlanders
5%
Simple Pleasures
6%
Bedrock America
8%
Golden Ponds
7%
Figure 30: Market Segmentation for combined Primary and Secondary Trade Area. Source: Claritas, Inc.
The top four subcategories include:
Crossroads Villagers are middle-aged, white-collar households that include families and
couples. They tend to live a “classic rural lifestyle,” with downscale incomes and modest
housing. Crossroads Villagers, who also enjoy fishing, hunting, and gardening, account for 13%
of households in Poplar Bluff’s combined trade areas. They have a median household income
of $32,989.
Back Country Folks are a low-income, older demographic that are mostly retired and without
children. They tend to be homeowners who live in older, modest homes or manufactured
housing. These families are reminiscent of an agricultural-based era, enjoy dining at Hardee’s,
reading Hunting magazine, and watching the Hallmark Channel. Their median household
income is $32,760, and the group represents 12% of households in Poplar Bluff’s market.
Old Milltown families are older without children. They live in older communities, are generally
retired singles and couples, and live in homes built prior to 1960. They enjoy gardening,
veterans clubs and casual restaurants. They make $30,680 per year on average, and represent
9% of Poplar Bluff’s market.
37
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Young & Rustic, is made up of middle-aged singles with lower-middle incomes. They often live
in apartment units, and have service industry jobs with modest pay. They are restless with a
fast paced lifestyle centered on sports, cars, and dating. Their median household income is
$32,607 and they make up 9% of Poplar Bluff’s overall market.
This analysis presents a demographic breakdown of Poplar Bluff’s combined trade area. It
identifies the lifestyle and social characteristics of the full spectrum of residents in the market.
Individual retailers in Poplar Bluff each have their own niches and intended markets, and most
likely will not accommodate the comprehensive market. However, understanding the true
makeup of the market will help the merchants make marketing decisions including targeting
specific segments, expanding product lines, and determining how to maximize their advertising
expenditures.
The demographic characteristics of each segment are detailed on the following page.
38
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Combined Trade Area (PTA, STA)
Social Group
Rustic Living
Rustic Living
Rustic Living
Rustic Living
Rustic Living
Rustic Living
Middle America
Middle America
Country Comfort
Country Comfort
Middle America
Middle America
Country Comfort
Landed Gentry
Country Comfort
Middle America
Landed Gentry
Middle America
Landed Gentry
Country Comfort
Lifestage
Striving Singles
Sustaining Seniors
Sustaining Seniors
Striving Singles
Sustaining Families
Sustaining Seniors
Cautious Couples
Cautious Couples
Conservative Classics
Midlife Success
Striving Singles
Mainstream Families
Mainstream Families
Young Accumulators
Mainstream Families
Striving Singles
Midlife Success
Mainstream Families
Affluent Empty Nests
Young Achievers
Code
56
58
57
48
64
55
38
43
28
37
45
51
33
20
32
42
25
50
9
23
Name
Households Pct.
Pred. Inc.
Crossroads Villagers
2554
12.63% Downscale
Back Country Folks
2495
12.34% Downscale
Old Milltowns
1889
9.34% Downscale
Young and Rustic
1888
9.34% LowerMid
Bedrock America
1695
8.38% Downscale
Golden Ponds
1420
7.02% Downscale
Simple Pleasures
1279
6.33% LowerMid
Heartlanders
1056
5.22% LowerMid
Traditional Times
937
4.63% Midscale
Mayberry-ville
872
4.31% Midscale
Blue Highways
864
4.27% Downscale
Shotguns and Pickups
786
3.89% LowerMid
Big Sky Families
604
2.99% Midscale
Fast-Track Families
356
1.76% Upscale
New Homesteaders
349
1.73% Midscale
Red, White and Blues
338
1.67% LowerMid
Country Casuals
283
1.40% UpperMid
Kid Country, USA
273
1.35% LowerMid
Big Fish, Small Pond
254
1.26% Upscale
Greenbelt Sports
29
0.14% Midscale
Class
Age
Pred HH
Comp.
Pred. Tenure/Type
Pred. Education Pred. Employment Pred. Race
Age <45
Age 55+
Age 65+
Age 65+
Age <35
Age 65+
Age 65+
Age 45+
Age 55+
Age 35-64
Age 65+
Age 25-44
Age 25-54
Age 25-54
Age 25-44
Age 25-44
Age 35-64
Age <45
Age 45+
Age 25-54
Married Couples
Married Couples
Singles/Couples
Singles/Couples
Families w/Kids
Singles/Couples
Singles/Couples
Married Couples
Married Couples
Married Couples
Mostly Singles
Families w/Kids
Families w/Kids
Families w/Kids
Families w/Kids
Married Couples
Married Couples
Families w/Kids
Married Couples
Married Couples
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Mix / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Mix / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Renter / SFDU, Hi-Rise Multi
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU
Mix / SFDU, Mobile
Owner / SFDU
Owner / SFDU
Elem. School, H.S.
Elem. School, H.S.
Elem. School, H.S.
H.S. Graduate
Elem. School, H.S.
H.S. Graduate
H.S. Graduate
H.S. Graduate
Some College
H.S. Graduate
H.S. Graduate
H.S. Graduate
Some College
College
Some College
H.S. Graduate
Some College
Some College
College Grad.+
College
Term
Employment
Upscale
UpperMid
Midscale
>70k
60-70k
45-60k
WC
BC
Service
Office white collar
Blue Collar
Service Industry
LowerMid
Downscale
32-45k
25-32k
Farm
Prof
Farm
Professional white collar
Median HH Income
WC, Service, BC, Farm
Service, BC, Farm
WC, Service, BC
WC, Service, BC
Service, BC, Farm
WC, Service, BC, Farm
WC, Service, BC, Farm
WC, BC, Farm
WC, BC, Farm
WC, BC, Farm
WC, Service, BC
WC, BC, Farm
WC, BC, Farm
WC
WC, BC
WC, Service, BC
WC, BC
WC, Service, BC, Farm
Exec, Prof, WC
Prof, WC
Figure 31: Segmentation Subcategory Descriptions for Poplar Bluff’s combined trade area. Source: Claritas, Inc.
White
White, Black
White, Black
White, Black, Hispanic
White, Black, Hispanic
White
White
White
White
White
White, Black
White
White
White
White
White
White
White, Hispanic
White
White
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Demographic & Segmentation Observations:
The most recent 2010 Census data show the following trends in Poplar Bluff, Butler County, and
the region:
•
The region has generally experience population growth over the past 20 years (1990 -2010).
Some areas on the other hand, have shown decline.
•
Between 1990 and 2000, the City of Poplar Bluff experience a 3.94% decrease in
population. This is not necessarily unusual in the sense that municipalities can tend to lose
population while the suburban and regional areas grow. This was the case between 1990
and 2000 as Butler County grew by 5.42%. Similarly, both the PTA and STA grew during
this time.
•
Jonesboro and Paragould both showed greater than 15% growth during this time period.
•
Between 2000 and 2010, Poplar Bluff reversed its population decline and grew by 2.23%.
This is a slow growth rate, but Butler County (4.73%) and 63901 (6.13%) grew by a health
amount.
•
In general, the region’s population growth slowed during the previous year, although
Jonesboro and Paragould continued to grow at a rapid rate.
•
Household growth between 2000 and 2010 mirrored that of population growth, with Poplar
Bluff and Butler County showing marginal to moderate growth and Jonesboro and Paragould
growing rapidly.
•
When comparing 2010 regional median household income, the City of Poplar Bluff comes
out on the bottom ($25,455). However Butler County ($33,525) was in the upper third
compared to the region. Cape Girardeau had the highest median household income in 2010.
•
Another income indicator, occupied housing unit value, showed Poplar Bluff sitting in the
middle of regional values, at $82,900. Cape Girardeau ($127,100) and Jonesboro
($125,700) have the highest values.
•
Market Segmentation - Social Groups. The majority of Poplar Bluff’s market (59%) is
classified as “Rustic Living”. This category is typical in rural agrarian areas and is made of
generally blue collar, simple-living persons in a mixture of ages and races. The next largest
category (23%) are “Middle America” families made up of middle-class white households.
•
Market Segmentation – Life Stage. Poplar Bluff’s trade areas are somewhat evenly split
between “Mature Years”, and “Younger Years”, with a slightly larger amount of older
generations. Still, at 46%, nearly half of the families in Poplar Bluff’s trade areas are older
and aging.
•
Market Segmentation – Subcategories. Of the 65 segmentation subcategories, Poplar
Bluff’s combined trade areas have 20, with the largest being “Crossroads Villagers”. These
families live classic rural lifestyles of hunting, fishing and gardening. They live in modest
housing and have blue-collar jobs. 50% of the market’s household fall into just five
categories, most of which are downscale and middle-class in terms of income.
•
Market Segmentations – Targets. Local business owners should understand the various
segments of the market to help determine product types and inform marketing decisions. To
diversify the overall market, Poplar Bluff could focus residential recruitment efforts targeting
the middle range categories of “Mayberry-ville”, “Big Sky Families”, and “Traditional Times”,
40
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
among others. These categories are general middle to upper-middle incomes couple and
families and mixture of ages.
•
Poplar Bluff has a broad and diverse market and should attempt to provide a variety of
business, retail and restaurant offerings to meet the needs of its customer base.
41
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
4.0 Employment Assessment
An assessment of Butler County’s employment base is shown below. Employment data comes
from County Business Patterns as published by the US Census Bureau. Data is provided on a
county level, with the most recent data available being for the year 2009. 2010 data will come
out in June of 2012.
Total establishments, number of employees, and payroll figures are provided for various sectors
based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Due to various reporting
constraints, data for certain areas is withheld.
CB0900A1: 2009 County Business Patterns: Geography Area Series: County
NAICS
CODE
Buller County
Number of
Paid employees First-quarter
Annual payroll
establishments for pay period payroll ($1,000) ($1,000)
Meaning of 2007 North American Industry Classification
including March
System (NAICS) code
12 (number)
00
11
21
22
23
31-33
42
44-45
48-49
51
52
53
54
55
56
61
62
71
72
81
99
Total for all sectors
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Mang & Remediation
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Other services (except public administration)
Industries not classified
1,356
3
1
3
94
46
52
224
44
9
76
38
58
2
41
2
211
8
84
115
245
14,641
a
a
127
808
h
376
2,634
258
113
490
230
414
a
214
a
3,924
85
1,591
644
c
a
D
h
c
S
b
f
e
0 to 19 employees
Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual companies; data are included in higher level totals
2,500 to 4,999 employees
100 to 249 employees
Withheld because estimate did not meet publication standards
20 to 99 employees
500 to 999 employees
250 to 499 employees
96,669
D
D
2,864
5,624
D
2,592
12,714
2,290
736
4,468
1,513
2,836
D
839
D
35,329
274
4,719
2,578
287
397,190
D
D
8,725
26,394
D
11,369
55,271
9,095
3,010
17,179
7,256
11,938
D
4,516
D
141,839
1,306
19,020
10,763
1,349
Figure 32: Butler County Employment 2009. Source: US Census County Business Patterns.
County Business Patterns are published on an annual basis, and market data services such as
Claritas, Inc. use this trend data to create current year estimates and projections. The data
below estimates 2010 employment figures as well as 5-year projections for employment by
industry and occupation type for Butler County. The data was compiled by Claritas and
provided by the Missouri Department of Economic Development.
42
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
Claritas, From LocationONe
Employment by Industry
Health Care/Soc Asst
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Educational Svcs
Accommdtn/Food Svcs
Construction
FIRE
Transport/Warehse/Utils
Public Administration
Prof/Sci/Tech/Admin
Oth Svcs, Not Pub Admin
Admin/Spprt/Waste Mgmt
Agriculture/Forest/Fish/Hunt
Wholesale Trade
Entertainment/Rec Svcs
Information
Total
February 2012
2010
Employees
3,938
2,256
2,253
1,352
1,223
999
861
848
753
717
564
429
408
266
177
161
17,205
Percent
22.89%
13.11%
13.10%
7.86%
7.11%
5.81%
5.00%
4.93%
4.38%
4.17%
3.28%
2.49%
2.37%
1.55%
1.03%
0.94%
100.00%
2015 (Projection)
Employees
Percent Percent Change
3,933
22.94%
-0.1%
2,247
13.11%
-0.4%
2,237
13.05%
-0.7%
1,350
7.87%
-0.1%
1,216
7.09%
-0.6%
991
5.78%
-0.8%
849
4.95%
-1.4%
841
4.91%
-0.8%
752
4.39%
-0.1%
718
4.19%
0.1%
567
3.31%
0.5%
424
2.47%
-1.2%
416
2.43%
2.0%
260
1.52%
-2.3%
180
1.05%
1.7%
164
0.96%
1.9%
17,145
100.00%
Figure 33: Butler County Employment 2010-2015. Source: MO Economic Development, Claritas.
•
Butler County’s largest employment sectors are Healthcare, Manufacturing, and Retail
Trade. Given the makeup of uses in Poplar Bluff with two hospitals, multiple manufacturing
facilities, and serving as the retail center of a broad rural area, this makes sense.
•
Projections from Missouri Economic Development show a relative stable trends with a
marginal decrease overall in jobs.
Agriculture, Information Services, and
Entertainment/Recreations show slight growth overall.
2010 Employment by Industry
Agriculture/
Forest/Fish/Hunt
2%
Admin/Spprt/
Oth Svcs, Not Waste Mgmt
2%
Pub Admin
3%
Prof/Sci/Tech/Admin
4%
Wholesale Trade
2%
Entertainment/Rec
Svcs
1%
Health Care/Soc Asst
23%
Public Administration
4%
Transport/Warehse/
Utils
5%
Manufacturing
13%
FIRE
5%
Retail Trade
13%
Construction
6%
Accommdtn/Food
Svcs
7%
Information
1%
Educational Svcs
8%
Figure 34: Butler County Employment by Industry. Source: MO Economic Development, Claritas.
43
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
2010 Employment by Occupation
Architect/Engineer
Community/Soc Svcs Protective Svcs
Building Grounds
1%
Business/Financial
2%
Maint
Ops
3%
2%
Personal Care/Svc
3%
Construction/
Extraction
3%
Maintenance Repair
3%
Healthcare Support
4%
Edu/Training/Library
5%
Transportation/
Moving
5%
Food Prep/Serving
6%
1%
Service and Farm
17%
Office/Admin
Support
12%
Sales/Related
9%
Production
9%
Management
7%
Health
Practitioner/Tech
7%
Figure 35: Butler County Employment by Occupation. Source: MO Economic Development, Claritas.
•
2010 employment by occupation further defines Butler County’s employment base. Service
and Farm jobs show the largest percentage, followed closely by Office and Administrative.
Largest Employers
1 POPLAR BLUFF REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
2620 North Westwood Boulevard, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
General Medical & Surgical Hospital
2 BRIGGS & STRATTON CORPORATION
731 Highway 142, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Manufacturing of outdoor power equipment
3 NORDYNE, INC.
1747 Cravens Road, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Manufacturing & Distribution facility - HVAC
4 POPLAR BLUFF R-1 SCHOOL DISTRICT
301 South Main Street, Suite B. Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Educational Services - Public school system
5 US VETERANS ADMINISTRATION HOSPITAL
1500 North Westwood Boulevard, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
General Medical & Surgical Hospital
6 CITY OF POPLAR BLUFF
101 Oak Street, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Legislative Body
7 GATES CORP
1650 Rowe Parkway, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Rubber Product Manufacturing
8 WAL-MART SUPERCENTER
333 South Westwood Boulevard, Poplar Bluff ,Missouri 63901
Department Store
9 THREE RIVERS COMMUNITY COLLEGE
2080 Three Rivers Boulevard, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Junior College
10 MID CONTINENT NAIL CORPORATION
2700 Central Avenue, Poplar Bluff, Missouri 63901
Steel Wire Drawing - Nail Manufacturing
Employees: 1500
NAICS: 622110
Employees: 1400
NAICS: 333111
Employees: 800
NAICS: 333415
Employees: 720
NAICS: 611110
Employees: 580
NAICS: 622110
Employees: 560
NAICS: 921120
Employees: 500
NAICS: 326299
Employees: 456
NAICS: 452111
Employees: 380
NAICS: 611210
Employees: 270
NAICS: 331222
Figure 36: Butler County Largest Employers. Source: MO Economic Development, Poplar Bluff Industries
44
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
Top 10 Occupations by Projected Growth
Occupation
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
Physician Assistants
Surgical Technologists
Medical Equipment Repairers
Physical Therapist Assistants
Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists
Dental Hygienists
Dental Assistants
Respiratory Therapists
Physical Therapists
Estimated Employment Projected Employment
2008
2018
75
113
16
24
32
45
20
28
34
47
51
70
68
93
145
198
47
64
110
148
Average
Openings
38
8
13
8
13
19
25
53
17
38
Percent
Change
50.7%
50.0%
40.6%
40.0%
38.2%
37.3%
36.8%
36.6%
36.2%
34.5%
Figure 37: Top 10 Occupations by Projected Growth – South Central Region. Source: Missouri Economic
Research and Information Center (MERIC), MO Department of Economic Development
•
In terms of largest employers, Healthcare, Manufacturing, and Education are the
predominant employers in Butler County and Poplar Bluff.
•
South Central region projections from MERIC show the highest projected growth by
percentage in Network Systems and Data Communication, followed by a variety of
healthcare related occupations.
Wage & Unemployment
Poplar Bluff and Butler County are in the South Central Region of Missouri. Missouri Economic
Development and other state agencies use these workforce investment regions for planning and
analysis purposes. Two counties within the eight-county trade area (Dunklin and Stoddard) are
in the Southeast Region. Comparison data for all eight counties is shown below.
Total Wages for All industries
Area
Avg. Annual Wage
Butler County
$30,455
Carter County
$22,821
Reynolds County
$26,975
Ripley County
$22,416
Wayne County
$23,382
Dunklin County
$23,382
Stoddard County
$28,692
Local Area Unemployment Statistics December 2011
Area
Civilian Labor Force
Butler County
21,281
Carter County
3,135
Reynolds County
2,205
Ripley County
6,754
Wayne County
5,857
South Central Region
97,173
Dunklin County
14,255
Stoddard County
15,671
Avg Hourly Wage
$14.64
$10.97
$12.97
$10.78
$11.24
$11.24
$13.79
Employment
19,493
2,848
1,905
6,102
5,317
88,684
12,823
14,311
Unemployment
1,788
287
300
652
540
8,489
1432
1360
Unemployment Rate
8.40%
9.20%
13.60%
9.70%
9.20%
8.70%
10.00%
8.70%
Figure 38: Regional Wage and Employment Figures. Source: Missouri Economic Research and
Information Center (MERIC), MO Department of Economic Development
45
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
•
In the eight-county trade area, Butler has the highest average annual wage ($30,455) and
average hourly wage ($14.64) of the entire region.
•
At 8.4%, Butler County’s unemployment is also the lowest in the region. Still, the entire area
has high unemployment, between 8.4% and 13.6%. Of course, this mirrors National figures.
•
It should be noted that these figures from December 2011 are higher than that of the 2010
estimates and projections from LocationOne and the MO Department of Economic
Development. These 2011 figures are more up to date and are based on primary sources of
data. They also suggest that there has been job growth over the past two years.
Estimated Daytime Population
Total daytime population is the number of people present in the community during normal
business hours, and is estimated by adding an area’s total population to the total jobs within the
area, then subtracting the number of total workers who live in the area. This will then account
for both the workers who commute in to the area, as well as those who are residents but work
outside. The data comes from the US Census and specifically the American Community Survey
(ACS). ACS data is taken every year, and estimates are provided based on a rolling three to
five year period. In Poplar Bluff, the data is based on the five-year estimates. Using the most
current Census Data and ACS survey figure from 2010, the estimated daytime population is:
Butler County – 45,488
Poplar Bluff –
25,466
46
3958
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5712
Traffic Counts
St. Francois
B
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1864
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P
O
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B
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Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
368
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Poplar
Bluff
is2 both a retail and employment center of an eight-county region, and daily traffic
0 0.5
1
221
H
T
S
Miles
counts show this.
Highways 60 and 67 both
have healthy
traffic counts, with?> Westwood
>
?
POPLAR BLUFF
t
ut
u
Boulevard being the main traffic route through the community.
5921
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2 Mi
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
5.0 Business Development
This report focuses on creating a foundation of market research and data from which the
Greater Poplar Bluff Chamber of Commerce can formulate a business development framework.
The study was not meant to create an economic development plan, but does offer general
business development strategies to grow Poplar Bluff’s economic and customer base. The
broad-based strategies below are based on the market analysis data presented above, and can
be the foundation for developing an economic development strategy for the area. The
strategies fall in three core areas:
-
Business Development
Market Positioning
Partnerships & Planning
5.1 Business Development
These recommendations focus specifically on ongoing business development including
business recruitment, business support, and entrepreneurial development.
•
Recruit businesses based on the potential identified in the market analysis: This
market analysis identifies a number of retail and business needs based on current trade
patterns. Poplar Bluff has the potential to meet the retail demand in a broad geographic
region, and any business recruitment should complement regional offerings.
•
Make data readily available to existing and potential businesses: The market analysis
provides data that will be relevant to existing and potential business owners, as well as
developers and property owners. The information included in this report should be made
readily available to all interested parties including businesses, realtors and economic
development agencies such as the Small Business and Technical Development Center.
•
Create available properties database for retail uses: Poplar Bluff is fortunate that it does
not have a much vacant retail space. Still a number of properties and centers are
underutilized or transitioning. Much like it does for employment uses and developable sites,
Poplar Bluff Industries could consider building a database of all available retail properties
including size, zoning, lease rates, price, utilities, and condition. The database should be
updated regularly, and made available online and to local realtors.
•
Assess business support programming: The Greater Poplar Bluff Area Chamber and its
economic development partners (City, PB Industries, SBTDC, Ozark Foothills Regional
Planning Commission) should do an assessment of current business support programming.
In doing so, it can be determined if there is a need for additional resources or programming
such as entrepreneurial support or “economic gardening”. By understanding the market and
investment opportunities, creating an infrastructure for investment, and facilitating internal
networks, a community can help support entrepreneurial investment similar to an industrial
authority targeting specific businesses.
Economic gardening practices focus on access to market information, growing businesses
from within a community, and concentrating on innovative and high-growth businesses. An
overview and best practices can be found at www.littletongov.org/bia/economicgardening or
www.economicgardening.ning.com.
48
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
•
February 2012
Consider small business incentives: Similarly, small business incentives could be
considered to help grow or recruit independent businesses to a community. Other
communities have had success in providing seed capital for new business through local
grants, tax incentives, revolving loan funds, etc. Programming could include training for
business and financial planning, marketing, etc.
5.2 Market Positioning
Poplar Bluff serves a large regional market as defined previously in this report. Much of its
opportunity for growth and expansion will come from demand within that broader geography. In
order for Poplar Bluff to sustain and grow its customer base from the region, it must strategically
market to those consumers. This is important particularly as these consumers will have an
equal opportunity to go to another nearby market such as Cape Girardeau, Paragould, or
Sikeston. A consistent message is needed to market to Poplar Bluff citizens, its local trade
areas, and the eight-county regional trade area.
•
Create a unified brand system for Poplar Bluff as a place: A “brand” is a promise that is
made to a consumer that speaks to the unique value and characteristics of the product. Just
like a soft drink or shoe company, this would apply to a community as well. Therefore, a
Poplar Bluff brand would present the unique characteristics and values that separate it from
other communities within the region. This brand would be a graphic identity with a unique
style, theme, palette, typography, and overall message that is applied to a broader system
positioning Poplar Bluff as a special place.
Currently, the various agencies in Poplar Bluff have vastly different graphic identities and
messages, creating the potential for confusion for area consumers and residents. It is
important that each organization retain a unique identity, but finding ways to connect
messages and create a consistent image that will build “equity” in the Poplar Bluff brand.
•
Extend brand to area agencies and events: Once a brand identity for the Poplar Bluff
community is established, the message and style can be “extended” to agencies such as the
Greater Poplar Bluff Chamber, City of Poplar Bluff, etc. Individual and unique logos and
position statements can be made for each, but ones that are part of a larger and consistent
system.
•
Create branded marketing collateral: Finally, the brand could be applied to existing and
new marketing materials such as websites, wayfinding and gateways, event brochures,
targeted advertising, brochures, etc. This will ultimately result in a seamless system to
strategically market Poplar Bluff to expand its customer base, create active, and promote
investment in the community.
•
Create distinct economic development position: As part of the broader brand system,
Poplar Bluff can create a graphic and strategic market position to promote the community for
investment and employment.
•
Create testimonial ads for key area employers: Poplar Bluff has unique businesses such
as Briggs and Stratton, Nordyne, etc. These operations could be anywhere but have chosen
Poplar Bluff as a place to invest and expand. Print and video testimonials can highlight the
competitive advantages of doing business in Poplar Bluff.
49
Poplar Bluff, MO – Retail Market Analysis
February 2012
•
Work with regional realtors to promote Poplar Bluff as a place to invest: Quite often,
communities assume that realtors are aware of available property and investment
opportunities when in fact the information is simply not on their radar screens. Similarly, it is
often the realtors who are on the front lines of residential recruitment, and it is important that
they understand and promote the overall marketing message. The Chamber and its
partners should make sure that regional realtors and developers have the current market
information and understand the investment opportunities and competitive advantages in the
City.
•
Create branded business recruitment package: All of the economic development
marketing materials should be assembled and presented as a business recruitment
package. This would include inserts for demographics and workforce information,
testimonials, incentive programs, available properties, and target business advertisements.
•
Coordinate cooperative marketing materials: Private sector businesses should also be
tapped to market Poplar Bluff businesses as a unit. Pooling resources and promoting a
consistent message through cooperative advertising, local loyalty campaigns, etc., can be
very effective as part of a comprehensive strategy.
5.3
Partnerships & Planning
Finally, there are a number of organizations that play a role in economic development and
business support in Poplar Bluff and Butler County. These partners should simply be on the
same page with respect to business development, marketing, planning, and implementation.
•
Host economic development roundtable to introduce market research to partner
agencies: The Poplar Bluff Chamber should assemble its economic development partners
to provide them with this data and discuss responsibilities for implementation.
•
Planning initiatives: Poplar Bluff has two primary commercial locations - downtown and the
Westwood Boulevard corridor. Both areas have challenges and are in need of planning,
including:
•
o
A Westwood Boulevard Corridor study could be commissioned to identify urban
design enhancements, opportunities and constraints for new investment, and
gateway and wayfinding improvements.
o
Downtown Poplar Bluff, Inc. has created a vision and strategic redevelopment plan
for downtown, and should continue its efforts to revitalize the struggling core of the
community.
Update market information: The market research should be updated every three to five
years, while marketing strategies can be amended or enhanced over time.
50