Malaysian Economy

Transcription

Malaysian Economy

Malaysian Economy
Fourth Quarter 2014
Ministry of Finance Malaysia
Quarterly Update
on the Malaysian Economy – 4th Quarter 2014
Highlights
❐
Global growth continues at moderate pace
❐
Malaysian economy grows stronger than expected
❐
Growth driven by domestic demand
❐
Economy remains on a steady growth trajectory in 2015
International Performance
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Moderate pace of expansion
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Global growth expanded at a moderate
pace in the fourth quarter of 2014. The US
economy continued to grow supported by
household consumption, private investment as
well as state and local government spending.
Growth in the euro area remained subdued
and vulnerable to deflation. Japan’s economy
remained weak as the increase in sales tax in
April 2014 has depressed consumer spending.
China continued to record slower growth on
account of lower exports and weakening
domestic demand.
The US economy grew 2.5% during the fourth
quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 2.7%) supported
mainly by higher private consumption
expenditure, private investment as well as
state and local government spending. The
unemployment rate fell further to 5.7% (Q3
2014: 6.1%) due to increased hiring in retail
trade, construction, healthcare, finance and
manufacturing sectors. The inflation rate
decreased to 1.3% (Q3 2014: 1.8%) due to
lower energy prices.
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The euro area continued to register a subdued
growth of 0.9% during the fourth quarter of
2014 (Q3 2014: 0.8%), with modest to weak
expansion in major economies. The region
continued to grapple with high unemployment
and financial issues as well as geopolitical
tensions in Easter n Europe. Meanwhile,
inflation moderated further to 0.2% (Q3 2014:
0.4%), largely owing to lower energy prices.
Hence, the ECB decided to maintain the
interest rates and introduced new purchase
programmes for asset-backed securities and
covered bonds in October 2014 to support
growth and reduce deflation risks.
2
Germany’s economy expanded moderately by
1.5% (Q3 2014: 1.2%), benefiting from higher
external demand, lower energy costs and a
weakening euro. Trade activity rebounded
with exports rising 5.5% (Q3 2014: 5.2%) and
imports increasing 2.2% (Q3 2014: 2.1%). On
the supply side, the manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.7 points (Q3
2014: 51.2 points) and industrial production
declined 0.3% (Q3 2014: 0.7%), signalling that
recovery remains vulnerable. Similarly, inflation
fell to a low of 0.4% (Q3 2014: 0.8%), raising
concerns over deflation.
Growth in France was lower at 0.2% (Q3 2014:
0.4%), mainly due to the contraction registered
in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Manufacturing output contracted 0.5% (Q3
2014: 0.1%), while construction activity declined
3.6% (Q3 2014: -1.7%). Household consumption
also registered a negative growth of 0.3% (Q3
2014: 0.5%), continuing to be affected by
the prolonged EU crisis. Meanwhile, inflation
dropped further to 0.3% (Q3 2014: 0.5%) as
a result of persistently lower energy prices.
In the UK, GDP expanded 2.7% (Q3 2014:
2.6%), attributed to the buoyant performance
of the services sector. Growth in the services
sector was broad-based at 3.3% (Q3 2014:
3.2%), driven by brisk activity in the distribution,
hotels and restaurants as well as transport,
storage and communication subsectors.
Meanwhile, inflation fell further to 0.9% (Q3
2014: 1.4%), largely on account of lower
fuel and transport prices. Hence, the Bank
of England maintained an accommodative
monetary policy stance and kept the policy
rate at 0.5%.
Japan’s economy remained weak as a result
of the prolonged impact of the sales tax
hike in April 2014. However, exports showed
signs of recoverey mainly due to a weak
yen and a pick-up in intra-regional and US
demand. The Bank of Japan announced
further quantitative easing in October 2014
and expanded its current loose monetary
policy stance to achieve its 2% inflation target.
China’s GDP growth was sustained at 7.3% (Q3
2014: 7.3%) mainly due to slowing exports and
weakening domestic demand. Export growth
slackened to 8.7% (Q3 2014: 13%) largely
driven by falling foreign direct investment in
manufacturing and rising production costs.
Investment in fixed assets softened to 11.5%
(Q3 2014: 12.7%) due to the cooling property
market despite the government approving
more investment projects to offset the impact.
The manufacturing sector slowed down as
reflected in the PMI, which stood at an
average of 50.4 points (Q3 2014: 51.3 points)
following sluggish new orders. The Consumer
Price Index (CPI) eased to 1.5% (Q3 2014: 2%)
following lower transport and housing prices.
The People’s Bank of China reduced its key
interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in
order to stimulate economic activity.
Korea’s economy grew slower at 2.7% (Q3
2014: 3.2%), mainly due to the decline in
construction spending at 1.8%. This was
partly due to the reduction in government
infrastructure spending amid shrinking tax
revenue. Exports moderated to 0.8% (Q3 2014:
2.5%) due to lower demand for electrical and
electronic (E&E) devices and ships. The Bank
of Korea lowered its key interest rate to 2%
in October 2014 to accelerate the sluggish
economic recovery.
Within the ASEAN region, Indonesia’s GDP grew
5% (Q3 2014: 5%). Growth was mainly supported
by stronger domestic demand, particularly in
investment and government consumption.
Inflation rose to 6.5% (Q3 2014: 4.4%) as a
result of fuel price subsidy rationalisation. Bank
Indonesia increased its policy interest rate by
25 bps to 7.75% in November 2014, the first
increase since November 2013 to mitigate
short-term inflationary pressures.
3
In the Philippines, GDP accelerated further
to 6.9% (Q3 2014: 5.3%) mainly contributed
by the robust performance of industry and
services sectors. Growth was also supported
by strong expansion in exports at 15.5% (Q3
2014: 9.9%). Inflation eased to 3.6% (Q3 2014:
4.7%) due to the continued slide in housing and
transport costs as well as lower prices of utilities
and energy. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has
maintained its policy interest rate at 4% since
September 2014 to curb inflationary pressures.
Malaysian Economy
Stronger-than-expected growth
The Malaysian economy expanded strongly
by 5.8% during the fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3
2014: 5.6%). For the whole of 2014, growth was
6% (2013: 4.7%), achieving the upper bound
target of 5.5% - 6%. Growth was supported
by domestic demand, in particular private
consumption and investment. On a quarteron-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the
economy grew 2% (Q3 2014: 0.9%). On the
supply side, all sectors registered a positive
growth, except for the agriculture sector which
contracted due to lower palm oil production.
In tandem with higher private consumption,
the services sector increased strongly by
6.4% (Q3 2014: 6.2%) led by the wholesale
and retail, finance and insurance as well as
communication subsectors. Meanwhile, the
manufacturing sector grew 5.2% (Q3 2014:
5.4%) supported by strong output of E&E. The
construction sector grew steadily by 8.7% (Q3
2014: 9.6%) driven by higher activities in the
non-residential subsector despite negative
growth in the civil engineering subsector. The
mining sector recorded a strong growth of
9.6% (Q3 2014: 1.4%) on account of higher
production of crude oil and condensates.
The agriculture sector declined 2.8% (Q3
2014: 4%) on account of lower crude palm
oil production following the unprecedented
floods that mainly hit the east coast states
of Peninsular Malaysia.
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Private sector remains vibrant
Economic growth was contributed mainly
by domestic demand, which improved 5.9%
during the fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014:
4.9%). Private sector expenditure remained
the key driver of growth, expanding 8.5% (Q3
2014: 6.8%), while public sector expenditure
rebounded by 0.6% (Q3 2014: -1.2%). Private
consumption increased at a stronger pace
of 7.8% (Q3 2014: 6.7%), the highest quarterly
growth in 2014. Growth was driven by higher
spending on communications, restaurants
and hotels as well as food and non-alcoholic
beverage, which rose 9.8%, 6.6% and 6.5%,
respectively (Q3 2014: 9.7%; 6%; 6.2%).
Private consumption indicators such as
loans outstanding to the household sector,
sales of food and passenger cars as well as
imports of consumption goods also reflected
the higher private consumption. Meanwhile,
public consumption registered a moderate
growth of 2.7% (Q3 2014: 5.3%) on account
of lower spending on supplies and services.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) increased
4.3% (Q3 2014: 1.1%), mainly driven by private
investment, which recorded a double-digit
growth of 11.2% (Q3 2014: 6.8%). The robust
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performance was driven mainly by investment
in the manufacturing, services as well as
mining sectors. The GFCF by type of assets
was underpinned by higher investment in
structures at 10.8% (Q3 2014: 8.3%), amid
slower spending on machinery and equipment
(-0.4%) as well as other assets (-7%). Meanwhile,
public investment improved to register a
smaller negative growth of 2.1% (Q3 2014:
-8.9%), following an increase in capital
spending by Non-Financial Public Enterprises
(NFPEs). Reflecting the strong performance
of investment activity were imports of
intermediate goods and loan disbursements
to the businesses sector which grew strongly
by 12.4% and 17.6%, respectively.
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION INDICATORS
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70
70
60
60
50
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40
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30
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Passenger car sales
Credit consumption
Motorcycle sales
Imports of consumption goods
Sales tax
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and BNM.
right
scale
Services sector spearheads growth
The services sector expanded further by 6.4%
6.2%). The majority of services subsectors grew
at a stronger pace led by wholesale and
retail trade while growth in a few subsectors,
which included utilities moderated. The final
services group increased at a higher rate of
7.7% (Q3 2014: 6.9%) mainly supported by
wholesale and retail trade. Meanwhile, the
intermediate services group grew 5.6% (Q3
2014: 5.4%) boosted by the communication
as well as real estate and business services
subsectors.
The wholesale and retail trade subsector
increased 9.3% (Q3 2014: 8.2%), supported by
wholesale, retail and motor vehicle segments.
Within the subsector, the retail segment
recorded the highest growth at 9.9% (Q3 2014:
9.4%) due to stronger sales at non-specialised
and specialised stores. The wholesale trade
segment grew 9.1% (Q3 2014: 8%) driven by
food, beverage and tobacco, household
goods as well as agricultural intermediate
goods. The motor vehicle segment rose at
a stronger pace of 7.7% (Q3 2014: 4.9%) in
line with launches of new car models and
aggressive marketing campaigns by dealers.
Likewise, the accommodation and restaurant
subsector expanded further by 7.2% (Q3
2014: 5.7%). The strong performance was
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attributed to higher growth in the restaurant
and accommodation segments, which
recorded 8.7% and 2.6%, respectively (Q3
2014: 6.9%; 2.4%).
SERVICES SECTOR
(% annual change)
2013
2013
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
5.1
6.4
4.0
5.0
4.9
4.6
10.0
1.8
7.5
3.8
9.0
6.3
6.5
4.2
9.8
-0.1
6.9
5.1
10.8
0.9
8.1
Final services
5.8
5.5
5.0
Utilities
Wholesale and retail trade
Accommodation and restaurant
Other services
4.1
6.4
5.7
5.1
3.9
5.7
6.4
5.2
4.1
5.2
4.9
5.3
Government services
8.3
7.1
Total services
5.9
6.1
Intermediate services
Transport and storage
Communication
Finance and insurance
Real estate and business services
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
5.4
5.8
4.7
5.4
5.6
5.4
10.3
0.5
8.3
5.0
9.9
2.0
7.8
4.8
10.2
2.4
8.6
4.6
9.8
0.7
7.4
4.9
9.7
2.6
7.2
5.8
9.8
2.0
8.2
5.6
7.1
7.2
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.7
3.9
6.1
5.8
5.0
4.4
8.4
5.8
5.1
3.5
8.8
6.2
4.9
3.2
8.6
6.1
4.8
2.7
9.2
5.6
4.5
4.4
8.2
5.7
5.0
3.7
9.3
7.2
5.1
7.8
9.6
8.6
6.5
8.1
7.3
6.2
4.8
5.0
6.0
6.4
6.3
6.6
6.2
6.2
6.4
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia.
The finance and insurance subsector
moderated to 2% (Q3 2014: 2.6%) weighed
down by the slower performance of insurance
activity. The insurance segment rose 4.5% (Q3
2014: 6.7%) on account of higher claims in
life and general insurance while the finance
segment increased marginally by 1.2% (Q3
2014: 1.4%). The real estate and business
services subsector rose 8.2% (Q3 2014: 7.2%),
with real estate increasing 5.7% (Q3 2014: 5.5%)
driven by non-residential building activities.
The business services segment recorded a
high growth of 9.1% (Q3 2014: 7.8%) mainly
due to the double-digit growth in engineering
and accounting services.
Growth of the communication subsector
increased 9.8% (Q3 2014: 9.7%) supported
by a higher subscriber base in 4G, cellular
and broadband segments. As at endDecember 2014, cellular phone subscriptions
rose 4.6% to 45 million with a penetration
rate of 148.5% (end-September 2014: 0.4%;
43.8 million; 145%). In addition, broadband
subscriptions rose further by 51.6% to 9.7
million with a household penetration rate
of 68.9% (end-September 2014: 18.7%; 7.5
million; 67.8%). The increased penetration
rate of mobile phones and broadband was
largely due to continuous upgrading of
network coverage.
The transport and storage subsector
increased 5.8% (Q3 2014: 4.9%) supported
by land transport. During the quarter, there
was also higher port activity with the total
volume of containers handled at seven
major ports increasing 11.7% to 5.8 million
twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) (Q3
2014: 8.1%; 5.7 million TEUs). Port Klang and
Tanjung Pelepas saw an increase in volumes
handled at 2.9 million TEUs and 2.3 million TEUs
(Q3 2014: 2.8 million TEUs; 2.2 million TEUs),
contributing 49.2% and 38.7%, respectively to
total container throughput (Q3 2014: 49.5%;
38.7%).
The land transport segment rose 6.3% (Q3
2014: 5.8%) supported by higher freight of
goods by road as well as highway operation
activities. Traffic volume on tolled highways
increased 5.1% to 444 million vehicles (Q3
2014: 4%; 436 million) attributed to higher
usage during school holidays and discounted
toll rates during festive seasons. Total ridership
on urban rail services in the Klang Valley rose
7.3% to 58.8 million (Q3 2014: 2.3%; 56.1 million)
mainly due to the increase in passenger
usage. Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad (KTMB)
cargo tonnage continued to expand 8.6%
to 1.7 million tonnes while revenue rose 8.4%
to RM37.1 million (Q3 2014: 3.2%, 1.8 million
tonnes; -1.2%, RM35.6 million) supported by
higher transport of construction materials.
However, KTM Intercity Services continued
to decline 16.8% to 539,695 passengers (Q3
2014: -18.4%; 504,623) largely due to damaged
infrastructure and service disruptions caused by
the floods in the east coast and some northern
states in Peninsular Malaysia. Meanwhile,
ridership on the Electric Train Service (ETS)
plying the Kuala Lumpur – Ipoh route, increased
4.8% to 451,583 passengers (Q3 2014: 3.8%;
419,857) supported by higher demand.
6
During the quarter, the air transport segment
expanded 3% (Q3 2014: 3.3%), with total air
cargo handled at all airports increasing 7.3% to
272,430 tonnes (Q3 2014: 8.9%; 255,729 tonnes)
in line with higher E&E exports. Meanwhile,
total passenger traffic at airports nationwide
contracted marginally by 0.2% to 22.8 million
(Q3 2014: -2%; 20.4 million) due to a decline
in domestic air travel.
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The utilities subsector moderated to 3.7%
4.4%). This was due to slower electricity
consumption from some energy-intensive
industries. In addition, there was lower
electricity and water consumption due to
the shutdown of electricity grids and water
treatment plants during the massive floods
that hit the east coast states. The electricity
and gas segment grew 3.7% (Q3 2014: 4.4%)
while the water segment increased 3.6%
(Q3 2014: 4.4%). The Electricity Production
Index increased 3.2% to 118.1 (Q3 2014:
6.5%; 120.7). Electricity sales rose 2.7% to
25,992 gigawatt hours (Q3 2014: 2.9%; 26,335
gigawatt hours) with maximum demand for
electricity peaking at 16,260 megawatts in
October 2014 (Q3 2014: 16,443 megawatts
in July 2014). The other services subsector
expanded further by 5.1% (Q3 2014: 5%)
mainly driven by private education, which
increased 6.9% (Q3 2014: 7%) and private
health, which rose 5.1% (Q3 2014: 5.2%).
Meanwhile, the government services subsector
grew 4.8% (Q3 2014 : 6.2).
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Manufacturing sector posts strong growth
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Value-added of the manufacturing sector
grew at a steady pace of 5.2% during the
fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 5.4%) while
production rose 4.9% (Q3 2014: 5.1%). Sales of
manufacturing products rose 2.4% to RM165.7
billion during the period (Q3 2014: 3.6%;
RM166.1 billion). Meanwhile, the capacity
utilisation rate of the sector remained steady
at 79.5% (Q3 2014: 76.2%).
7
Growth of the manufacturing sector was
supported by the sustained performance of
export-oriented industries at 5.4% (Q3 2014:
4.4%). High demand for E&E and chemical
products saw the subsectors growing 10.2% and
7.9%, respectively (Q3 2014: 10.1%; 7.4%). The
E&E subsector was led by increased production
of printed circuit boards, consumer electronics
as well as machinery and equipment which
increased 31.3%, 36.3% and 6.5%, respectively
(Q3 2014: 40.9%; 49.8%; 4.7%). The chemical
products subsector was backed by higher
manufacture of liquefied medical gases
(8.4%), basic organic chemicals (19.7%) and
fertilisers (23.7%).
manufacture of crude palm (-9%) and palm
kernel oil (-8.2%) as well as rubber remilling
and latex processing (-10.2%).
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Output of the wood and wood products
grew 11.1% (Q3 2014: 10.6%). Production of
sawmilling and planing of wood as well as
manufacture of particle board and fibreboard
products expanded further by 36.2% and
49.8%, respectively (Q3 2014: 43.8%; 17%). This
cushioned the decline in output of veneer
sheets and plywood (-6.9%). Meanwhile, refined
petroleum products turnaround 1.8% (Q3
2014: -5.4%). Textiles, wearing apparel, leather
products and footwear remained strong at
6.6% (Q3 2014: 14.8%) on account of higher
external demand. However, manufacture of
paper and rubber products contracted 3.3%
and 0.8%, respectively (Q3 2014: 2.1%; -4%).
Off-estate processing contracted 9% (Q3
2014: 4.3%) on account of lower output from
Production of domestic-oriented industries
moderated to 3.8% (Q3 2014: 7.3%). Production
of food products and beverage grew 5.4%
and 13.5%, respectively (Q3 2014: 5.2%; 15.6%),
on account of higher consumption during
the festivities and school holidays. Output of
tobacco products rose at a stronger doubledigit pace of 36.5% (Q3 2014: 16%) supported
by higher exports to Taiwan, Singapore and
Vietnam. The transport equipment subsector
expanded at a slower pace of 1.1% (Q3
2014: 11.4%) affected by the slower growth
in building of ships and boats (-1.8%) as well
as parts and accessories of motor vehicles
(-2.4%). However, the manufacture of motor
vehicles and motorcycles was higher at 3.9%
and 13.8%, respectively (Q3 2014: -2%; 13.9%).
Meanwhile, the construction-related subsector
increased 3.5% (Q3 2014: 5.7%) in line with
vibrant ongoing construction activity. The
production of non-metallic mineral and basic
metals increased 6.9% and 2.8%, respectively
(Q3 2014: 9.1%; 4.5%). However, output of other
manufactured products contracted 4.3% (Q3
2014: 1.5%), weighed down by measuring,
testing, navigating and control equipment
(-37.1%) as well as irradiation, electromedical
and electrotherapeutic equipment (-1.3%)
segments.
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Construction sector remains resilient
The construction sector registered a steady
growth of 8.7% during the fourth quarter of
2014 following the strong growth momentum of
the non-residential and residential subsectors.
The non-residential subsector rose 17.1%
(Q3 2014: 7.9%), supported by the construction
of factories for manufacturing, storage facilities
and commercial buildings. The residential
subsector increased 14.9% (Q3 2014: 18.6%),
mainly due to higher housing construction
amid favourable economic and business
conditions as well as rising household
income. However, the civil engineering
subsector decreased 4.3% mainly due to
the completion of major infrastructure
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
projects. During the quarter, the total value
of construction works expanded 9.7% to
RM27.1 billion with 10,000 construction
projects registered. The highest share was
contributed by the non-residential building
subsector with 34.6%, followed by the civil
engineering subsector (30.6%), residential
buildings (29.7%) and special trade (5.1%).
The private sector continued to dominate
construction activities with a share of 70%
during the quarter.
Higher crude oil production
The mining sector grew significantly by 9.6%
during the fourth quarter of 2014, on the
back of higher production of crude oil and
condensates at 15.9% (Q3 2014: 3.2%) and
the rebound in production of natural gas
by 3.1% (Q3 2014: -0.8%). The production
of crude oil and condensates averaged
650,989 barrels per day (bpd) (Q3 2014:
566,047 bpd). The increase was supported
by higher output from the Gumusut-Kakap
field. Meanwhile, production of natural gas
averaged 6,562 million standard cubic feet
per day (mmscfd) (Q3 2014: 5,912 mmscfd).
Given the global oversupply situation, the
price of Dated Brent and Tapis declined to
an average of USD76.01 per barrel (pb) and
USD79.75 pb, respectively (Q3 2014; USD102.07
pb; USD106.21 pb).
0217+/<0,1,1*352'8&7,21$1'35,&(6
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('000 units)
('000 units)
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50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
2-3 Storey terraced
Single storey terraced
Low-cost flats
Low-cost houses
Condominiums, apartments & flats
Others
Source: NAPIC, Valuation & Property Services Department.
P = Preliminary
0
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Oil palm output contracts
Prices
Value-added of the agriculture declined
2.8% during the fourth quarter of 2014 due
to lower production of palm oil and rubber.
Value-added of the oil palm subsector
declined sharply by 8.9% (Q3 2014: 5.2%) on
account of lower production of crude palm
oil (CPO), following the massive floods in the
east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia. The
price of CPO moderated to RM2,195 per
tonne during the quarter (Q3 2014: RM2,217
per tonne).
Inflation eases
Meanwhile, the rubber subsector contracted
further by 25.5% (Q3 2014: -24.%) on account
of lower output and prices following
sluggish external demand. The price of
natural rubber (SMR 20) remained low at
RM4.98 per kilogramme during the quarter
(Q3 2014: RM5.14 per kilogramme). Other
agriculture registered growth of 4.9%
(Q3 2014: 10.7%) driven by higher output
of fruits (8.6%) and vegetables (6.2%).
The livestock subsector strengthened to
8.9% backed by higher output of poultry
and cattle while the fishing subsector
grew 2.6% from increased production of
aquaculture. Meanwhile, the forestry subsector
increased 2.7% in tandem with strong
logging activities in Sarawak and Peninsular
Malaysia.
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Headline inflation, as measured by the
annual change in the CPI eased to 2.8% in
the fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 3%). This
was largely due to slower price increases of
food and non-alcoholic beverage as well as
housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels.
The two groups contributed 1.6 percentage
points to the CPI increase. Meanwhile, prices
of transport increased following the subsidy
reduction of 20 sen per litre on RON95 petrol
and diesel in October 2014, accounting for
0.7 percentage point of the CPI growth.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverage
increased at a slower pace of 2.7% in the
fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 3.2%) and
accounted for 0.9 percentage point. This was
attributed to moderate price increases in the
food at home category at 2.2% (Q3 2014:
2.9%), despite higher prices of milk, cheese
and eggs at 5% while fish and seafood prices
rose 3% (Q3 2014: 3.4%; 4.1%). Prices in the
housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
group also rose slightly by 3.4% (Q3 2014: 3.3%)
and contributed 0.8 percentage point to the
CPI increase. Within the group, electricity and
actual rental paid by tenants increased 6.4%
and 3.3%, respectively (Q3 2014: 6.4%; 3.1%).
10
for personal and transport equipment as
well as repair and maintenance of personal
transport also rose 7% and 6.9%, respectively
(Q3 2014: 5.7%; 5.8%). As in the previous
quarter, prices of communication as well as
clothing and footwear continued to decline
0.9% and 0.4%, respectively (Q3 2014: -0.7%;
-0.2%), amid strong market competition.
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Prices in the transport group rose at a faster
pace of 4.8% (Q3 2014: 3.7%) from the impact
of subsidy rationalisation which resulted in pump
prices of RON95 petrol and diesel increasing 20
sen a litre on 2 October 2014 to RM2.30 and
RM2.20, respectively. The implementation of
a managed float mechanism on 1 December
2014, which saw the pump price of RON95
petrol reduced by 4 sen a litre to RM2.26,
coupled with two price reductions of petrol
RON97 on 19 November (20 sen) and 1
December 2014 (9 sen) were not enough to
offset the price increase of transport. Under
the managed float, the retail price of diesel,
however, increased 3 sen to RM2.23 per litre
in December. Prices of fuels and lubricants
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The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures
changes in the prices of commodities
charged by domestic producers and those
paid by importers, decreased 2.1% in the
fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 0.9%) amid
softer commodity prices. This was the first
quarterly decline since the fourth quarter
last year. The lower PPI was contributed by
price decline in local production at 3% (Q3
2014: 1%), while prices of import components
were unchanged (Q3 2014: 0.8%).
Price declines of mineral fuels and lubricants
as well as crude materials, inedible at 10.3%
and 8.8%, respectively (Q3 2014: 0.7%;
-4.2%) contributed 3.8 percentage points
to the decrease in the total PPI for local
production. In terms of stage of processing,
prices of crude materials for further processing
continued to fall 16% (Q3 2014: -4.4%).
However, processing of finished goods as
well as intermediate materials, supplies and
components increased at a slower pace of
0.5% and 0.3%, respectively (Q3 2014: 1%; 3%).
Meanwhile, the index for import components
remained unchanged year-on-year in the
fourth quarter of 2014. The price increase
in the machinery and transport equipment
group at 0.7% (Q3 2014: 0.9%) was largely
offset by the price decrease of mineral fuels
and lubricants at 5.5% (Q3 2014: 1.3%). The
PPI for imports by stage of processing also
registered a price drop in a crude materials
for further processing at 3.3%. However, this
was offset by price increase of intermediate
materials, supplies and components (0.4%)
and finished goods (0.1%).
11
Employment
Steady labour market
Labour market conditions remained steady
with a low unemployment rate of 2.8% in the
fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 2.7%). The
total labour force increased to 14.1 million
persons (Q3 2014: 14 million persons) while total
employment recorded 13.7 million (Q3 2014:
13.6 million). The services sector remained as
the major contributor of total employment
at 8.1 million or 59.3%, mostly in wholesale
and retail trade as well as accommodation
and food and beverage service activities
subsectors, followed by the manufacturing
(2.3 million; 16.7%) and agriculture (1.7 million;
12.4%) sectors.
Job vacancies registered via JobsMalaysia
amounted to 250,976 in the fourth quarter of
2014 (Q3 2014: 223,128). On a sectoral basis,
the manufacturing, services and agriculture
sectors continued to offer high job openings
at 70,817; 68,566 and 64,823 respectively.
On an occupational category, elementary
occupations continued to record the highest
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vacancies at 165,370 or 65.9% of total job
vacancies due to the less attractive nature
of such jobs. Meanwhile, the number of
active job seekers decreased to 367,826
as at end-December 2014 (end-September
2014: 387,229). In addition, the number of
retrenchments declined to 2,915 (Q3 2014:
3,028) with the majority recorded in the
services (1,328) and manufacturing sectors
(1,040).
Monetary and Financial Developments
Monetary aggregates continue to increase
Monetary aggregates increased further
during the fourth quarter of 2014, in line
with the economic expansion. M1 or narrow
money, rose 5.7% to RM346.4 billion (endSeptember 2014: 6.7%; RM330.4 billion).
Meanwhile, M3 or broad money, grew at a
faster pace of 7% to RM1,553.8 billion as at
end-December 2014 (end-September 2014:
5.2%; RM1,503.9 billion). Growth of broad
money was supported by higher credit
extended to the private sector by banking
institutions amounting to RM1,439.4 billion.
In addition, there were higher net claims
on the Government at RM104.3 billion. The
expansion in M3 was, however, partly offset
by a decline in net foreign assets.
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12
Interest rates remain steady
Slower growth in private sector financing
The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) remained
steady at 3.25% in the fourth quarter of 2014
(end-September 2014: 3.25%) and continues
to support economic growth. With the OPR
unchanged, the base lending rate (BLR) of
commercial banks remained stable at 6.79%
2014: 6.79%). Meanwhile, the weighted average
lending rate (ALR) of commercial banks eased
one basis point (bp) to 5.51% from 5.52%
recorded at end-September 2014. The savings
deposit rate also declined one bp to 1.07%
(end-September 2014: 1.08%). In contrast,
interest rates for 1-month to 12-month fixed
deposits rose slightly in the range of 3.08% and
3.31% (end-September 2014: 3.07% and 3.30%)
as banks competed for deposits. With inflation
moderating to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of
2014 (Q3 2014: 3%), the real return on fixed
deposits of all maturities remained positive.
Gross private sector financing raised through
the banking system and capital market grew
3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM309.8 billion in
the fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 18.1%;
RM302.1 billion). This was mainly contributed
by higher loan disbursements in the banking
system. However, gross private debt securities
(PDS) issuance excluding Cagamas declined
41.2% to RM21.2 billion (Q3 2014: 83%; RM23.6
billion), while equity issuances decreased 87.1%
to RM1 billion (Q3 2014: 217.7%; RM8.8 billion).
,17(5(675$7(62)&200(5&,$/%$1.6
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[During the Monetary Policy Committee
meeting on 28 January 2015, the OPR was
left unchanged since its last increment
in July 2014. The rate was maintained
at 3.25% to support economic activity
following a weaker global growth outlook
amid moderating domestic inflation.]
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During the final quarter of 2014, the demand
for financing remained steady with loan
applications dropping marginally by 0.2%
to RM210.1 billion (Q3 2014: 2.3%; RM219.1
billion), while loan approvals increased at
a faster pace of 8.6% to RM106.4 billion (Q3
2014: 2.5%; RM105.7 billion). Meanwhile, loan
disbursements continued to record a doubledigit growth of 12.2% to RM287.7 billion (Q3
2014: 12.3%; RM269.7 billion). The household
sector maintained its majority share of total
loans disbursed by the banking system with
RM77.8 billion or 28.3% (Q3 2014: RM74.2
billion; 27.5%). The wholesale and retail
trade, accommodation and restaurant sector
continued to account for the largest portion
of loans disbursed to businesses at 20.6%
or RM59.8 billion (Q3 2014: 20.3%; RM54.9
13
billion) followed by the manufacturing sector
at 19.9% or RM54.7 billion (Q3 2014: 19.1%;
RM51.5 billion).
Total loans outstanding of the banking system
expanded further by 9.3% to RM1,339.7 billion
2014: 9%; RM1,298.1 billion). The household
sector accounted for 57% of total loans
outstanding in the banking system (endSeptember 2014: 57.3%).
/2$1$33529$/6$1'',6%856(0(176%<6(/(&7('6(&7256
and tier 1 capital ratio held steady at 12.6%
and 13.3%, respectively as at end-December
2014 (end-September 2014: 12.8%; 13.5%).
However, the total capital ratio fell marginally
to 15.2% (end-September 2014: 15.5%), still
well above the minimum regulatory level.
The banking sector recorded a pre-tax profit
of RM7.8 billion (Q3 2014: RM8.1 billion).
The quality of banking loan portfolio was
maintained with the net impaired loans ratio
improving to 1.2% of net total loans as at endDecember 2014 (end-September 2014: 1.3%).
Ringgit softens
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The ringgit softened against most major
and regional currencies during the fourth
quarter of 2014. The exception was the
yen, against which the ringgit appreciated
2.3%. The ringgit slipped 6.4% against the
US dollar and also fell in the range of 0.1%
and 6.5% against other major and regional
currencies.
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BANKING SYSTEM: LOANS OUTSTANDING AND GROWTH
RM billion
Annual change (%)
1,400
1,339.7
1,200
14
12
1,000
9.3%
10
800
8
600
6
400
4
The weakening of the ringgit against the US
dollar was in tandem with the performance
of other regional currencies. The ringgit was
weighed down by growing concerns over
falling global crude oil prices on the fiscal
position and current account balance in the
balance of payments.
3(5)250$1&(2)5,1**,7$*$,1676(/(&7('&855(1&,(6
(QG6HSWHPEHU³(QG'HFHPEHU
Mar Jun Sept Dec Mar Jun Sept Dec Mar Jun Sept Dec Mar Jun Sept Dec Mar Jun Sept Dec
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
Loans outstanding
Loan growth
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Source: Bank Negara Malaysia.
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The banking system remained strong and
well-capitalised in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio
,QGRQHVLDQUXSLDK
Banking system remains resilient
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14
[From 1 January 2015 to 12 February
2015, the ringgit continued to depreciate
3.5% against the US dollar and hit a near
six-year low of RM3.6340 on 29 January
2015. The ringgit also fell between 0.4%
and 4.2% against other major and
regional currencies. However, the ringgit
gained 3.8% and 3.3% against the euro
and the Australian dollar, respectively.
The ringgit’s performance was affected
by plummeting crude oil prices amid
a strengthening US dollar. The ringgit
was also impacted by market concerns
over the Government’s revision of the
economic growth forecast to 4.5% - 5.5%
for 2015 from 5% - 6% and the fiscal
deficit target to 3.2% of GDP from 3%
during the Special Address by the Prime
Minister on 20 January 2015.]
Fund raising activity declines
Fund raising activity in the capital market
further declined in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Gross funds raised decreased 29.1% y-o-y
to RM45.3 billion with funds raised by the
public sector amounting to RM22.8 billion and
the private sector, RM22.5 billion (Q3 2014:
-63.5%; RM55.7 billion; RM22 billion; RM33.7
billion). Meanwhile, issuances of PDS as well
as shares and warrants by the private sector
were also lower at RM21.6 billion and RM1
billion, respectively (Q3 2014: RM24.9 billion;
RM8.8 billion). PDS issuances were mainly
in the finance, insurance, real estate and
business services sector, for working capital
and general purposes. After adjusting for
redemptions, total net funds raised declined
21.7% to RM26.4 billion (Q3 2014: -66.8%;
RM17.1 billion), with net funds raised by the
public sector at RM15.3 billion and the private
sector, RM11.2 billion (Q3 2014: RM2.1 billion;
RM15 billion).
FUNDS RAISED IN THE CAPITAL MARKET
(RM million)
2013
BY PUBLIC SECTOR
Government securities (net)
Malaysia Government Securities
Government Investment Issues
Less: Redemptions
Khazanah Bonds (net)
Merdeka Saving Bonds (net)
Government Housing Sukuk (net)
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8,031
10,158
11,400
14,288
24,012
8,523
2,101
15,258
6,331
13,500
10,050
17,219
12,557
12,580
11,976
12,000
8,700
13,944
10,000
15,244
14,288
11,400
9,000
6,112
20,012
14,493
9,019
3,500
5,923
11,916
10,050
16,043
601
12,279
8,222
19,900
11,858
12,729
6,629
19,900
1,700
(2,399)
-
2,700
-
4,000
2,600
1,500
3,400
BY PRIVATE SECTOR
8,665
3,713
6,429
19,462
15,365
8,660
15,009
11,162
Shares/Warrants
Debt Securities (net)
1,001
7,664
4,815
(1,103)
2,780
3,649
7,431
12,030
4,211
11,154
5,163
3,497
8,832
6,177
957
10,205
22,601
14,937
11,832
12,934
13,389
9,740
36,044
24,013
20,547
9,393
18,513
15,016
24,859
18,682
21,583
11,378
16,696
13,870
17,829
33,749
39,377
17,183
17,110
26,420
Private Debt Securities1
Less: Redemptions
TOTAL
1
including Cagamas.
Note: Total may not add up due to rounding.
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia.
Yields on 1-year Malaysian Government
Securities (MGS) increased 22 bps to 3.48%
10 bps; 3.26%). Similarly, the yield on 5-year
and 10-year MGS also rose 17 bps and 23
bps to 3.84% and 4.15%, respectively (Q3
2014: -8 bps, -12 bps; 3.67%, 3.92%). This was
due to a weaker ringgit; plunging global
crude oil prices which raised concerns
over the Government’s fiscal position; and
consolidation by investors towards year-end.
Meanwhile, yields on the 5-year AAA-rated
and AA-rated PDS increased 6 bps and 2
bps to 4.27% and 4.6%, respectively (Q3 2014:
0.4 bps, 0.2 bps; 4.21%, 4.58%). In contrast,
yields on the A-rated PDS declined 7 bps to
6.87% (Q3 2014: 3 bps; 6.94%).
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15
PRIVATE DEBT SECURITIES (PDS) 5-YEAR YIELDS 1
3(5)250$1&(2)6(/(&7(',1',&(6
(QG6HSWHPEHU(QG'HFHPEHU
%
12
11.17
6+&203&KLQD
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10
1DVGDT86
'RZ-RQHV86
8
6(16(;,QGLD
6.87
+6,+RQJ.RQJ
67,6LQJDSRUH
6
-&,,QGRQHVLD
4.60
4.27
4
3&2033KLOLSSLQHV
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2
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
‘10
‘11
AAA
‘12
AA
‘13
A
‘14
BBB
1
End-period.
Source: Fully Automated System for Issuing/Tendering (FAST), Bank Negara Malaysia.
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6RXUFH%ORRPEHUJ
FKDQJH
FBM KLCI closes lower
The FBM KLCI began the fourth quarter on
a firmer note in tandem with most regional
peers. The index gained 8.84 points or
0.5% month-on-month in October despite
the ending of the Federal Reserve’s bondbuying programme as the market was
reassured by the Fed’s affirmation that it will
maintain interest rate for a considerable time.
However, the FBM KLCI fell in November and
December as market sentiment was affected
by concerns of plummeting crude oil prices
on the Government’s fiscal deficit and the
current account balance in the balance of
payments. The market was also concerned
over the weaker ringgit amid capital outflows.
The FBM KLCI reached a 21-month low of
1,673.94 points on 16 December 2014 before
recovering to 1,761.25 points at the end of
2014 (Q3 2014: 1,846.31 points). On a quarterly
basis, it registered a loss of 4.6%.
Meanwhile, market capitalisation declined
6.9% or RM122.9 billion to RM1,651.17 billion
2014: 0.2%; RM3.7 billion; RM1,774.09 billion).
Likewise, total turnover also dropped to 122.5
billion units valued at RM126 billion during
the fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 169.2
billion units; RM140.3 billion).
[The FBM KLCI continued its declining
trend in January 2015 as crude oil prices
fell further. The index closed at 1,781.26
points as at end-January 2015 as market
sentiment was affected by developments
including a slower global growth outlook;
a likely hike in US interest rate; and
geopolitical tensions. The market, however,
traded higher on 6 February 2015 with
the FBM KLCI recording a year-to-date
high of 1,813.25 points after crude oil
prices recovered from recent lows. The
FBM KLCI saw a marginal decline at
1,789.07 points on 12 February 2015.]
Federal Government Finance
Higher tax collection
Federal Government revenue decreased
2.3% to RM59.6 billion in the fourth quarter of
2014 (Q3 2014: RM59.1 billion) due to lower
receipts from non-tax revenue despite higher
collection from tax revenue.
Tax revenue, accounting for 79.4% of total
revenue, rose 11.3% to RM47.4 billion (Q3
2014: RM41.9 billion) mainly due to higher
16
collection from direct tax. Direct tax collection
increased 14.6% to RM37.3 billion (Q3 2014:
RM31.8 billion) particularly attributed to
higher receipts from individual income tax.
In contrast, corporate and petroleum income
tax registered lower collection of RM21.7
billion and RM8.2 billion, respectively.
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Non-tax revenue, which represented 20.6% of
total fourth quarter revenue, decreased 33.6%
to RM12.3 billion (Q3 2014: RM17.2 billion)
mainly due to lower investment income as
well as receipts from motor vehicle licences
and the Federal Territories.
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largely on account of lower receipts from
petroleum products arising from lower export
volume and value of crude oil.
4
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Indirect tax collection increased slightly
by 0.3% to RM10.1 billion (Q3 2014: RM10.2
billion) mainly due to a positive growth from
import duty, sales tax and excise duty, which
was in line with higher demand of imported
passenger vehicles, alcoholic beverages
and cigarettes. In contrast, export duty and
service tax declined 40% and 1.9%, respectively,
which offset the small growth in other
components. The decline in export duty was
Lower subsidy expenditure
Federal Government total expenditure grew
marginally by 1.7% to RM76.7 billion in the
fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: RM61.2
billion). Operating expenditure, accounting
for 77.9% of total expenditure, increased
1.6% to RM59.7 billion (Q3 2014: RM52.9
billion) largely on account of higher spending
on transfers to statutory bodies, pensions
and gratuities, supplies and services as
well as asset acquisitions. Emoluments, the
largest component of operating expenditure,
increased slightly by 3.3% to RM16.6 billion
(Q3 2014: RM17 billion).
In contrast, subsidy payments declined
21.2% (Q3 2014: -18.4%) mainly attributed
t o a 2 0 - s e n re d u c t i o n i n f u e l s u b s i d y
for RON95 petrol and diesel in October
2014 amid lower crude oil prices, which
averaged USD76 per barrel (Brent) for the
quarter. The implementation of a managed
float fuel pricing mechanism effective from
1 December 2014 further contributed to the
decline.
Development expenditure increased 1.9%
to RM16.9 billion (Q3 2014: RM8.2 billion)
mainly due to the hike in spending for the
social services sector. Despite lower total
spending in the economic services sector,
the public utilities and transport subsectors
registered an increase of 18.3% and 16.5%,
respectively.
17
For the year, Federal Government total
expenditure remained stable at RM259.1 billion
(2013: RM253.5 billion). Operating expenditure
grew 3.9% to RM219.6 billion, particularly due
to the increase in emoluments as well as
pensions and gratuities.
However, development expenditure declined
6.4% to RM39.5 billion, mainly due to the fall
in spending on the education, trade and
industry as well as transport subsectors. Amid
firm revenue collection and the Government’s
commitment to strengthen public finance,
the annual fiscal deficit as a percentage
to GDP narrowed further from 3.9% in 2013
to 3.5% in 2014.
Borrowing mainly from domestic sources
Federal Government gross borrowing during
the fourth quarter 2014 was RM19 billion,
comprising mainly MGS and Government
Investment Issues (GII) at RM12.5 billion
and RM6.5 billion, respectively. The Federal
Government debt as at end of December
2014, stood at RM582.8 billion or 54.5% of GDP
(end-December 2013: RM539.9 billion; 54.7%
of GDP), with domestic debt accounting for
97.2% of the total debt. Debt service charges
for the year amounted to RM22.6 billion or
10.2% of total revenue (2013: RM20.8 billion;
9.7%), remaining within the 15% prudent limit.
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External Position
External sector remains positive
Against a challenging external environment,
Malaysia’s total trade continued to expand
2.4% to RM371.5 billion during the fourth
quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 2%; RM362.2 billion).
Gross exports remained high at RM196.5
billion (Q3 2014: RM189.5 billion) led by strong
demand for E&E devices and components,
particularly semiconductors. However, exports
of commodity-related and non-E&E products
saw a marginal decline in growth due to
various factors, including inclement weather,
falling prices and weak global demand.
Gross imports increased 4.6% to RM175
billion (Q3 2014: 2.6%; RM172.7 billion)
supported by higher imports of intermediate
and consumption goods reflecting better
prospects for future exports and robust
private consumption. As a result, the trade
surplus remained elevated at RM21.5 billion
(Q3 2014: RM16.8 billion).
Manufactured exports continued to
expand 1.8% to RM151.7 billion (Q3 2014:
1.9%; RM146.2 billion) supported by strong
external demand. Of significance, receipts
of E&E products grew 5.5% (Q3 2014: 2.7%),
particularly semiconductor devices as well
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18
as telecommunication equipment and parts,
which grew 8.4% and 15.7%, respectively. The
increase in E&E exports was significant from
major importing countries, particularly the US,
Netherlands and Taiwan. This was in line with
higher global chip and personal computer
sales during the quarter following stronger
demand ahead of the festive season.
Meanwhile, receipts from non-E&E products
fell marginally by 0.9% (Q3 2014: 1.3%), mainly
weighed down by commodity-related exports.
Notably, petroleum products contracted 19.1%
(Q3 2014: -3.8%), with refined petroleum and
petroleum gases dropping significantly by
27.8% and 25%, respectively. Lower exports
of refined petroleum products were recorded
particularly to Indonesia, China and Korea.
Shipments of rubber products decreased
2.9% (Q3 2014: 0.6%) affected by lower
prices, particularly materials of rubber such as
unvulcanised rubber compounds. However, the
decline in major commodity-related exports
was cushioned by other non-E&E products.
Exports of chemicals and chemical products
continued to grow significantly by 12.1% (Q3
2014: 5.8%), mainly driven by soap, cleansing
and polishing preparations as well as inorganic
chemicals. Growth in the subsector was
further aided by improved export earnings in
the industrial chemicals segment. Shipments
of machinery equipment increased 2.9% (Q3
2014: 7.4%), mainly supported by higher growth
in specialised machines and mechanical
appliances as well as machines and apparatus
for the manufacture of semiconductors. In
addition, exports of plastic products grew at
a faster pace of 8.5% (Q3 2014: 6.9%) with
strong receipts from containers of plastic as
well as plates, sheets films, foils and strips of
plastic. Meanwhile, exports of food products
continued to rise at a double-digit pace of
11.5% (Q3 2014: 19.8%) mainly on account
of higher shipments of prepared cereals and
flour preparations as well as dairy products,
while beverage and tobacco grew 1.1%.
Textiles, clothings and footwear continued to
expand 10.2% (Q3 2014: 0.3%), mainly due
to stronger exports of apparel and clothing
accessories to the US, Japan, Germany and
Australia.
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EXPORTS OF MANUFACTURED GOODS
(% annual change)
2013
Total manufacturing exports
Electronics & electrical products (E&E)
Petroleumproducts
Chemicalsand chemicalproducts
Machinery,appliancesandparts
Opticaland scientificequipment
Manufacturesofmetal
Rubberproducts
Processedfood
Woodproducts
Textiles,clothingsand footwear
Manufacturesofplastics
Ironand steelproducts
Transportequipment
Jewellery
Non-metallicmineralproducts
Beveragesand tobacco
Paperand pulpproducts
Othermanufactures
2013
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
5.1
0.6
-2.3
8.8
12.9
2.5
24.6
2.5
6.9
-9.1
39.2
-5.9
6.9
-5.0
7.9
6.7
-24.8
-5.8
8.8
-7.0
10.3
3.0
2.0
-4.9
33.3
-2.3
-2.7
0.8
20.5
0.0
3.1
-4.8
-0.4
0.5
-35.2
0.4
-11.1
-10.7
9.7
5.0
1.9
-3.8
0.4
0.7
0.7
-17.9
16.2
-9.0
6.5
-7.9
1.6
0.6
-28.0
6.6
19.3
-11.2
6.0
1.8
0.9
5.5
30.0
7.5
10.0
-17.9
68.1
-10.0
9.4
-7.3
16.6
12.6
-6.7
11.7
21.8
-3.8
5.8
4.4
-4.7
13.2
33.0
4.5
20.9
1.6
53.3
-4.5
8.3
0.0
13.7
13.4
-25.8
-28.9
5.1
-1.8
19.6
1.2
10.1
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
7.1
12.5
13.8
1.9
Q4
1.8
8.1
2.9
8.5
10.9
13.4
-6.1
-5.0
16.3
3.9
13.0
11.6
28.2
10.0
-11.9
6.9
5.2
1.8
19.8
12.5
14.5
8.6
15.0
9.6
24.4
-9.5
16.1
6.4
19.6
15.9
15.5
21.4
14.1
7.0
7.3
4.9
19.6
13.0
32.5
7.4
19.2
25.1
0.2
-7.6
18.2
7.7
24.4
15.9
42.0
4.5
-26.4
5.8
11.4
7.8
22.5
2.7
-3.8
5.8
7.4
18.0
-29.5
0.6
19.8
0.4
0.3
6.9
26.7
9.7
-23.8
10.8
2.1
-1.2
19.0
5.5
-19.1
12.1
2.9
2.4
-8.7
-2.9
11.5
1.5
10.2
8.5
27.9
4.9
-2.6
4.0
1.1
-3.8
18.5
Export earnings of agriculture products
dropped significantly by 8.8% during the
fourth quarter of 2014 (Q3 2014: 4.4%) due
to lower receipts from palm oil and rubber.
Export receipts of palm oil declined 10.6%
to RM10.7 billion (Q3 2014: 7.1%; RM11.9
billion), amid lower shipments (-4.4%) and
prices (-6.4%). Similarly, exports of rubber
dropped further by 50% to RM0.91 billion (Q3
2014: -46.2%, RM0.92 billion), mainly due to
lower volume (-27.7%). China remained as
the largest importer of rubber, with a share
of 49% of total rubber exports.
19
Export earnings of the mining sector decreased
marginally by 0.5%, mainly due to lower
shipments of crude petroleum. Export earnings
of crude petroleum declined 10.3% to RM7.9
billion (Q3 2014: 9.8%, RM8.4 billion) due to
lower prices despite higher volume. Export
prices declined 18.9% to average RM2,250
per tonne (Q3 2014: -2.7%, RM2,634 per
tonne), while export volume grew 10.6% to
RM3.5 million tonnes (Q3 2014: 12.8%; RM3.2
million tonnes). In contrast, export earnings
of LNG rebounded by 9.9% to RM17.5 billion
(Q3 2014: -6.4%, RM14.3 billion) attributed to
higher volume (0.2%) and average prices at
RM2,606 per tonne (Q3 2014: RM2,401 per
tonne) following higher demand from Japan,
Korea and Taiwan.
In tandem with higher economic activity, gross
imports rose 4.6% to RM175 billion (Q3 2014:
2.6%; RM172.7 billion) underpinned by strong
growth in intermediate and consumption
goods as well as sustained demand for
capital goods. Imports of intermediate goods
surged 12.5% (Q3 2014: 11%) contributed by
industrial supplies (9.5%), parts and accessories
(8%), fuel and lubricants (39.7%) as well as
food and beverages (19%). This was in line
with sustained manufacturing activity during
the quarter. Meanwhile, for consumption
goods, imports of food and beverages as
well as durable and non-durable goods grew
5.9%, 8.1% and 6.4% respectively, supported
by strong consumer spending and increased
tourist arrivals. Given that major projects are
near completion, imports of capital goods
remained stable at RM25.3 billion as most
of the transport equipment, particularly
aircraft, had been procured earlier. Growth
emanated from the non-transport segment,
mainly telecommunication equipment and from
increased investment activity such as building
plants, factories and commercial blocks.
In 2014, Malaysia’s total trade performance
was robust, growing 5.9% to RM1.45 trillion
(2013: 4.5%; RM1.37 trillion) amid challenges
of declining commodity prices, uneven
growth in key export markets coupled with
an appreciating US dollar, particularly during
the second half of the year. Gross exports
and imports rose 6.4% and 5.3%, respectively
(2013: 2.5%; 6.9%). With growth in exports
outpacing imports, Malaysia’s trade surplus
was higher at RM83.1 billion (2013: RM71.3
billion). Despite slowing growth, China remains
the largest trading partner, accounting for
14.3% of total trade, followed by Singapore
(13.4%) and Japan (9.5%).
Sustained surplus in current account
During the fourth quarter of 2014, the current
account surplus moderated to RM6.1 billion
or 2.3% of GNI (Q3 2014: RM7.6 billion; 2.9%)
despite a higher surplus in the goods account.
This was attributed to a higher deficit recorded
in the services and primary income accounts.
Although plagued by falling commodity prices
and a strengthening US dollar, a surplus of
RM24.8 billion (Q3 2014: RM22.3 billion) was
recorded in the goods and services account
due to better trade per formance in the
quarter. This more than offset the deficit in
the services account. The services account
recorded a larger deficit of RM7.9 billion (Q3
2014: -RM6.4 billion) mainly due to higher net
payment for construction services totalling
RM2.4 billion. Meanwhile the deficit in the
transport account remained high at RM8.6
billion following increased trade activities. The
travel account, however, remained in surplus
at RM6.6 billion, although marginally lower
than in previous quarters. This was supported
by sustained tourist arrivals in tandem with
year-end festivities and holidays. More foreign
flight arrivals particularly at KLIA2 also boosted
travel receipts. At the same time, more
residents also travelled abroad for leisure and
business during the quarter, as reflected in
higher gross payments amounting to RM11
billion (Q3 2014: RM10.5 billion).
Meanwhile, the deficit in the primary income
account widened to RM13.8 billion (Q3 2014:
-RM9.4 billion) mainly due to lower investment
20
income accruing to Malaysian companies
investing abroad, particularly, in the oil and
gas as well as services sectors. However,
investment income to foreign investors in
Malaysia was sustained at RM16.1 billion
predominantly in the manufacturing and
services sectors. During the quarter, the
secondary income account recorded a
marginally lower deficit at RM5 billion (Q3
2014: -RM5.3 billion) due to an increase in
remittances by Malaysian workers abroad
(RM2.3 billion) while remittances by foreign
workers in Malaysia was sustained.
%$/$1&(2)3$<0(1761HW
deposits by foreign financial institutions in the
domestic banking sector. Similarly, outward
direct investment (direct investment assets)
was higher at RM8.1 billion (Q3 2014: -RM6.2
billion). This was due to higher extensions of
equity capital to subsidiaries of Malaysian
companies operating abroad as well as
intercompany loans and lower repatriation
of investment income to parent companies
abroad. Meanwhile, inward direct investment
(direct investment liabilities) was marginally
lower at RM7.9 billion (Q3 2014: +RM8.3 billion)
supported by continued extension of equity
capital mainly to the manufacturing and
services sectors.
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Hence, the overall balance of payments
(BOP) registered a higher deficit of RM11.4
billion (Q3 2014: -RM6.7 billion) due to larger
outflows in the financial account coupled with
a lower current account surplus. Net errors
and omissions (E&O) amounted to RM6.7
billion, partly reflecting foreign exchange
revaluation gains as the ringgit depreciated
against selected major currencies during the
quarter.
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The financial account recorded a significantly
larger net outflow of RM24.4 billion (Q3 2014:
-RM2.8 billion) attributed to higher net outflows
in portfolio and other investments as well
investments abroad. In line with continued
uncertainty in global financial markets, portfolio
investment recorded a larger net outflow of
RM20.4 billion (Q3 2014: -RM11 billion) partly due
to liquidation of equity and debt securities by
foreign investors. Other investment turnaround
to record a net outflow of RM4.1 billion (Q3
2014: +RM6.1 billion) as Malaysian exporters
extended higher trade credit during the
quarter which more than offset placement of
In 2014, despite a challenging trading
environment particularly during the second
half of the year, the current account improved
further, recording a higher surplus of RM49.5
billion or 4.8% of GNI (2013: RM39.9 billion;
4.2%). This was attributed to a strong surplus
in the goods and services account to RM104.5
billion (2013: RM91.5 billion) despite a higher
deficit in the primary income account.
Meanwhile, the financial account recorded a
higher deficit of RM76.5 billion (2013: -RM15.8
billion) amid higher outflows in investments
abroad, portfolio and other investments.
Hence, Malaysia’s overall BOP registered a
higher deficit of RM36.3 billion (2013: +RM14.6
billion) attributed to higher net outflows in the
financial account despite the strong current
account surplus.
21
International reserves remain ample
Malaysia’s international reserves amounted
to RM405.5 billion (equivalent to USD116
billion) as at 31 December 2014 (end-Sept
2014: RM416.9 billion; USD127.3 billion). The
reserves level has taken into account the
quarterly adjustment for foreign exchange
revaluation changes. The reserves position is
sufficient to finance 8.4 months of retained
imports and is 1.1 times the redefined shortterm external debt.
prices, a stronger US economy and continued
low global interest rates. Advanced economies
are expected to grow moderately as the
US and UK gain momentum. The downside
risks to the outlook include weak domestic
demand and disflationary pressures in several
major economies, uncertainty over monetary
policy stance in advanced economies as
well as the impact of declining oil prices on
commodity exporters.
GDP AND THE LEADING & COINCIDENT INDICES
(% annual change)
,17(51$7,21$/5(6(59(6
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10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
PRQWKWLPHV
-15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
‘09
‘08
‘10
‘11
‘12
‘13
‘14
-
$
-
2
-
$
5HVHUYHV
2
-
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2
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-
2
-
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-
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GDP
Coincident index
Leading index
-15
right scale
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[As at 30 January 2015, the international
reserves amounted to RM386.5 billion
(equivalent to USD110.6 billion). The
reserves position is sufficient to finance
7.9 months of retained imports and is
1.1 times the short-term external debt]
Outlook
Global growth to expand moderately
Global growth is expected to expand at
a moderate pace amid a challenging
environment. Developing economies are
projected to expand aided partly by soft oil
The Malaysian economy is expected to remain
on a steady growth path in 2015, driven by
higher domestic activity. Growth in private
consumption is expected to be buoyed by
stable employment and higher disposable
income following a half-month bonus for
civil servants, cash assistance under Bantuan
Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) and schooling
assistance. In addition, lower energy costs
will boost consumer spending.
Meanwhile, private investment is envisaged
to register a steady growth mainly in the
manufacturing and services sectors. On the
supply side, domestic activity is expected to
be driven by a resilient construction sector
and strong services activity. Meanwhile,
the gradual improvement in the external
environment will boost manufacturing exports
in the second half of 2015.
Key Data
http://www.treasury.gov.my
25
KEY DATA
AREA (Square kilometres)
330,290
20131
POPULATION (million)
2014
29.9
20152
30.3
30.6
RM
million
%
growth
RM
million
%
growth
787,611
4.7
835,040
6.0
RM
million
%
growth
876,446
5.0 - 6.0
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Gross Domestic Product (constant 2005 prices)
USD million
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
manufacturing
Construction
Services
Gross Domestic Product (current prices)
USD million
249,963
255,144
56,095
2.1
265,100
57,528
2.6
60,051
3.1
2.8
63,680
0.7
65,650
3.1
65,930
193,237
3.5
205,200
6.2
216,921
5.5
29,554
10.9
32,984
11.6
36,864
10.7
434,460
5.9
462,027
6.3
485,803
5.6
986,733
4.8
1,070,008
8.4
1,175,703
9.0
313,158
326,934
362,608
NATIONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURE
Gross National Income (current prices)
Consumption expenditure:
952,607
5.2
1,032,618
8.4
1,148,003
USD million
302,328
Public
133,704
4.9
141,445
5.8
144,485
5.2
Private
504,045
9.3
554,358
10.0
609,951
10.2
Gross fixed capital formation: Public
315,509
9.4
354,064
104,552
3.1
101,144
-3.3
116,513
6.9
160,461
14.5
181,456
13.1
206,421
13.0
Exports of goods and services
805,962
0.4
852,208
5.7
883,152
4.0
Imports of goods and services
714,425
2.9
747,690
4.7
786,510
5.1
730,485
5.3
774,626
6.0
840,229
6.8
Private
Gross National Income (constant 2005 prices)
USD million
Gross National Savings (current prices)
Per Capita Income (current prices) RM
231,833
236,682
259,141
297,354
-0.4
319,195
7.3
373,674
9.8
31,843
3.7
34,123
7.2
37,486
8.1
USD
10,106
USD
22,460
4.8
22,378
-0.4
23,512
2.4
Revenue
213,370
2.6
220,6263
3.4
222,8654
1.0
Operating expenditure
211,270
2.8
219,589
3.9
212,421
-3.3
Purchasing Power Parity
10,426
11,561
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE
Current account surplus
Development expenditure (net)
Overall deficit/surplus
% to GDP
Domestic borrowing (net)
2,100
40,684
3
10,4444
1,0373
-8.2
38,4513
4
-5.5
47,4674
-38,584
-37,4143
-37,0234
-3.9
-3.53
-3.24
39,526
37,557
3
-
Foreign borrowing (net)
-221
-4273
-
Change in assets
-721
283
-
Federal Government debt
Domestic debt
Offshore borrowing
Memorandum item:
Non-residents holdings of ringgit-denominated
Government debt securities
RM million
% GDP
3
23.4
RM million
% GDP
RM million
% GDP
539,858
54.7
582,828
54.5
-
-
523,095
53.0
566,052
52.9
-
-
16,763
1.7
16,776
1.6
-
-
141,669
14.4
151,377
14.1
-
-
26
KEY DATA
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (NET)
20131
2014
20152
RM million
RM million
RM million
Balance on current account
39,907
49,508
49,049
USD million
12,665
15,127
14,836
Goods
108,230
125,064
109,779
Services
-16,693
-20,546
-13,137
Primary income
-34,126
-37,390
-27,700
Secondary income
-17,504
-17,619
-19,893
-15,828
-76,214
-
Balance on capital and financial accounts
Net errors and omissions
-9,431
-9,631
-
Overall balance
14,649
-36,338
-
RM
million
%
growth
%
share
RM
million
%
growth
766,129
6.4
%
share
RM
million
%
growth
%
share
EXTERNAL TRADE
Gross exports
719,992
USD million
2.5
228,503
Manufactured
787,197
234,085
3.2
238,105
548,146
5.1
76.1
587,252
7.1
76.7
600,986
3.3
Agriculture
68,799
-14.4
9.6
69,200
0.6
9.0
74,784
4.0
9.5
Mining
97,937
3.7
13.6
104,595
6.8
13.7
107,409
3.5
13.6
648,695
6.9
683,016
5.3
713,129
5.3
Gross imports
USD million
205,876
Intermediate goods
379,455
4.3
58.5
408,383
7.6
59.8
420,033
5.9
58.9
Capital goods
98,202
2.2
15.1
96,177
-2.1
14.1
105,900
5.7
14.9
Consumption goods
47,584
8.8
7.3
50,316
5.7
7.4
51,345
2.5
7.2
Total trade
208,691
76.3
215,701
1,368,687
1,449,145
1,500,326
71,298
83,112
74,068
Gross international reserves (RM billion)
441.9
405.5
386.55
USD billion
134.9
116.0
110.65
Months of retained imports
9.5
8.4
7.95
Short-term external debt (times)
1.3
1.1
1.15
27.4
26.8
-
European Union
9.9
9.9
-
USA
7.9
8.1
-
Japan
9.9
9.5
-
China
14.9
14.3
-
Others
30.0
31.1
-
Trade balance
Trading partners (% share to total trade)
ASEAN
PRICES
Index
% growth
Index
% growth
Index
% growth
Counsumer Price Index (2010=100)
107.1
2.1
110.5
3.2
-
4.0 - 5.0
Producer Price Index (2005=100)
125.4
-2.0
126.9
1.2
-
-
Thousands
% growth
Thousands
% growth
Thousands
% growth
LABOUR
Labour force
Unemployed (Unemployment rate)
13,634.6
3.9
14,074.86
3.26
-
-
424.6
(3.1)
393.66
(2.8)6
-
(3.0)7
27
KEY DATA
2013
2014
End-December
% annual
change
M1
327,503.2
13.0
346,415.9
5.7
M2
1,444,851.1
8.4
1,544,669.5
7.5
M3
1,462,390.2
8.1
1,553,802.6
7.0
MONEY AND BANKING8
Money supply
End-December
RM
million
RM
million
% annual
change
Banking system
Deposits
1,525,248.7
8.3
1,641,600.2
7.6
Loans
1,225,656.2
10.6
1,332,801.3
8.7
Loan-deposits ratio9 (end of period)
84.6
86.2
3.18
3.86
3-month
2.97
3.13
12-month
3.15
3.31
Savings deposit
0.99
1.07
Base lending rate (BLR)
6.53
6.79
Treasury bills (3-month)
3.00
3.37
Malaysian Government securities: 1-year
3.03
3.48
5-year
3.66
3.84
End-January 2014
End-January 2015
Interest rates (average rates at end of period, %)
3-month interbank
Commercial banks
Fixed deposits:
Movement of ringgit (end-period)10
RM per SDR; % annual change
5.1511
-7.3
5.1053
0.9
RM per USD; % annual change
3.3460
-7.4
3.6235
-7.7
RM per Euro; % annual change
4.5676
-7.9
4.1042
11.3
RM per 100 Yen; % annual change
3.2693
4.3
3.0701
6.5
Bursa Malaysia (end-period)
FBM KLCI
1,804.03
1,781.26
Market capitalisation (RM billion)
1,668.56
1,687.84
2013
2014
72.6
72.5
77.2
77.2
SOCIAL INDICATORS
Life expectancy at birth : Male (years)
1
Female (years)
Infant mortality1 (per 1000 live births)
Literacy rate1
Water coverage11 (% of population)
Rural electricity coverage12(% of housing unit)
Fixed line telephone subscribers13 (per 100 households)
Cellular phone subscribers
Broadband subscribers
13
13
(per 100 population)
(per 100 households)
Tourist arrivals (million persons)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
17
Department of Statistics, Malaysia.
Economic Report 2014/2015.
Preliminary.
Revised.
As at 31 January 2015.
Preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2014.
Forecast by the Economic Planning Unit.
Bank Negara Malaysia.
Excludes transactions by financial institutions.
Annual rate of appreciation (+) or depreciation (-).
Ministry of Rural and Regional Development.
Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, and National Water Services Commission.
Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission.
Aged 15 years and above with formal education, excluding non-Malaysian citizens.
As at End-December 2014.
For the period of January to October 2014.
Note : Urban electricty coverage has reached 100%. Data has been revised by Economic Planning Unit.
6.6
n.a
94.214
n.a
95.1
n.a
96.86
97.6
32.4
30.316
143.8
148.516
67.1
68.916
25.7
22.917
Key Economic Indicators
2013
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2014
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
3,973
4,052
3,953
4,606
3,887
4,015
4,095
4,119
4,382
4,299
3,476
4,365
4,321
4,253
4,251
4,194
4,217
3,973
4,336
4,049
4,582
1,627.55 1,637.63 1,671.63 1,717.65 1,769.22 1,773.54 1,772.62 1,727.58 1,768.62 1,806.85 1,812.72 1,866.96 1,804.03 1,835.66 1,849.21 1,871.52 1,873.38 1,882.71 1,871.36 1,866.11 1,846.31 1,855.15 1,820.89 1,761.25
3,645
Vacancies (no.)
Retrenchment (no.)
525
-2.7
1.5
299
-4.2
1.6
432
-4.9
1.7
3,859
-4.6
1.8
563
-2.7
1.8
967
-3.0
2.0
382
-2.6
1.9
350
-1.4
2.6
908
0.3
2.8
831
2.1
2.9
845
4.3
3.2
740
2.6
3.4
831
2.6
3.5
866
3.6
3.5
532
3.5
3.4
915
3.7
3.2
570
2.4
3.3
1,883
1.8
3.2
440
0.5
3.3
705
0.6
2.6
817
-0.7
2.8
551
-1.2
3.0
1,547
-4.4
2.7
107,470 72,015 142,661 129,017 116,448 107,796 134,971 95,504 130,605 153,698 105,166 107,339 102,363 133,543 117,124 86,322 71,837 88,725 78,331 78,786 66,011 94,026 83,763 73,187
1,234
-3.3
Producer Price
Index (Domestic)
Labour Market
1.3
Consumer Price
Index
Prices
- Annual change (%)
Market capitalisation 1,422.47 1,432.15 1,472.48 1,499.22 1,611.75 1,598.81 1,611.09 1,563.85 1,611.20 1,661.14 1,671.35 1,702.15 1,668.56 1,698.52 1,719.11 1,738.23 1,736.50 1,770.42 1,783.69 1,776.28 1,774.09 1,775.51 1,731.43 1,651.17
(RM billion)
FBM KLCI
Bursa Malaysia
(end-period)
2,946
3,911
Sep
Imports of
consumption
goods (RM million)
Aug
50,738 29,341 39,397 51,072 52,542 53,214 53,416 40,719 43,121 49,892 44,008 41,784 35,384 26,004 38,188 41,889 39,800 41,320 35,757 39,473 35,734 38,095 36,275 32,238
July
Production of
motorcycles (units)
June
51,816 31,706 43,343 50,366 51,815 51,274 54,133 39,302 42,593 45,418 44,058 41,895 34,230 29,278 40,946 42,652 41,482 40,056 34,587 38,486 37,473 35,297 35,666 32,596
May
Sales of
motorcycles (units)
Apr
53,075 42,786 51,959 53,434 48,709 51,784 57,376 43,542 56,273 54,383 55,823 56,141 59,929 61,330 67,658 79,207 79,162 69,530 48,527 48,476 52,346 47,524 49,347 51,746
Mar
Production of
vehicles (units)
Feb
48,720 40,477 50,562 45,564 43,398 47,270 61,032 45,054 48,411 47,930 45,749 52,490 44,702 45,704 52,122 52,488 49,865 51,898 53,578 44,898 41,397 47,544 48,622 55,523
Jan
Sales of new
passenger cars (units)
Indicator / Month
I. CONSUMPTION INDICATORS
31
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
June July
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2014
June July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.4
1.4
Property Overhang (end period)5
Total (units)
% Change (preceeding)
Total (RM million)
% Change (preceeding)
Registration of new local companies
(no.)
Companies dissolved / struck off
(no.)
Loans Disbursed by Sectors
(RM million)
Primary agriculture
Manufacturing (including agro-based)
Services
Construction
Real Estate
Household sector4
Other sector n.e.c.
Banking System :
Loans Approved by Sectors
(RM million)
Primary agriculture
Manufacturing (including agro-based)
Services
Construction
Real Estate
Household sector4
Other sector n.e.c.
1.5
14.6
12.7
9.1
6.53
1.5
14.3
11.1
8.2
6.53
1.4
14.1
12.8
9.5
6.53
1.5
14.3
12.5
8.5
6.53
1.5
14.1
12.3
8.9
6.53
1.4
14.1
10.3
8.3
6.53
1.4
14.5
12.9
7.4
6.53
1.4
14.5
13.9
7.9
6.53
1.4
14.3
13.9
6.7
6.53
1.3
14.9
13.0
8.1
6.53
1.3
14.5
11.6
6.4
6.53
1.3
14.5
10.7
5.9
6.53
1.3
14.5
11.4
5.9
6.53
1.3
14.6
11.3
6.0
6.53
1.3
14.6
9.6
5.5
6.53
1.3
15.3
10.2
5.6
6.53
1.3
15.3
9.1
5.7
6.78
1.3
15.5
7.7
4.8
6.79
1.3
15.5
6.7
5.2
6.79
1.3
15.6
6.0
5.4
6.79
-
1.3
15.3
6.3
7.1
6.79
-
1.2
15.2
5.7
7.0
6.79
-
298
22
1,335
4,234
1,585
1,741
15,264
243
760
416
3,101
6,012
2,124
2,046
19,271
565
630
113
1,860
6,966
1,524
1,614
21,168
433
279
710
2,048
6,557
2,752
1,685
19,728
425
509
1,389
1,902
6,892
1,860
2,395
20,141
344
503
93
1,692
5,705
1,366
3,100
23,936
201
852
245
1,225
4,337
3,291
3,087
19,476
133
958
44
2,158
6,743
1,704
2,691
19,356
264
565
265
2,085
4,977
1,371
3,611
19,858
318
641
103
1,922
5,182
1,699
1,294
20,811
143
866
189
1,643
4,705
2,228
2,968
20,277
257
422
650
1,579
3,454
1,309
1,740
19,073
127
333
1,537
1,682
3,657
1,234
1,975
16,535
186
340
127
2,172
7,590
1,309
3,173
20,719
227
392
182
1,257
4,784
2,190
2,682
21,468
579
214
299
1,587
4,236
1,332
2,175
20,714
573
1,163
392
1,622
3,943
1,591
3,751
20,816
175
914
179
2,195
4,550
1,657
2,859
20,647
145
604
167
2,399
4,846
2,694
2,301
20,579
985
624
101
2,373
5,690
3,661
2,439
20,561
2,575
906
1,239
1,646
7,622
1,958
2,735
21,037
245
755
1,081
1,521
6,444
1,882
3,717
19,725
110
258
283
1,646
6,305
2,834
2,691
19,435
374
2,487
493
14,427
18,684
4,591
2,591
21,481
905
4,319
805
16,540
21,852
4,296
3,548
24,357
1,305
2,751
552
16,023
23,480
4,578
3,119
24,040
1,591
2,562
809
16,582
23,624
4,989
3,716
23,665
721
2,848
981
15,428
24,819
4,344
4,099
25,323
889
2,410
717
15,960
24,624
4,575
3,354
27,682
1,298
2,426
757
15,110
23,283
5,718
5,421
24,593
1,088
3,016
707
16,440
28,084
3,981
3,574
24,653
774
2,280
610
16,899
25,464
4,860
3,448
26,644
1,216
1,882
742
16,198
25,428
5,373
3,249
24,993
1,353
2,758
758
19,675
34,340
6,101
4,609
26,350
1,239
3,771
599
19,357
30,138
7,473
4,748
27,008
1,312
2,380
1397
16,291
22,692
3,880
4,020
22,257
903
2,565
1515
18,741
30,905
5,462
4,171
25,139
1,670
2,730
1601
18,404
28,114
5,537
3,959
26,422
2,628
1,957
707
17,267
27,427
4,444
3,745
25,079
1,106
2,541
1563
17,101
30,287
4,543
4,019
25,788
1,179
1,980
608
16,776
28,820
5,147
3,554
24,946
2,785
2,475
567
16,536
34,259
4,771
4,382
24,225
3,048
2,505
670
18,217
35,049
5,040
4,716
25,002
3,616
2,493
647
19,592
35,303
6,943
3,805
25,685
2,440
2,750
708
16,292
30,764
5,513
4,931
24,446
2,388
3,160
1537
18,163
34,117
6,407
5,189
27,193
1,686
628
859
19,567
-3.1
6,249
-1.9
472 1,101
18,560
-5.1
6,411
2.6
673 1,229 1,596
17,833
-3.9
6,393
-0.3
17,848
0.1
6,074
-5.0
17,776
-0.4
6,235
2.7
835 1,822 1,456 1,775 1,342 1,384 1,546 1,453 1,582
16,643
-6.4
5,679
-8.9
608 1,012
857
691
14,877
-10.6
5,242
-7.7
365
613
362
-
-
3,716 2,963 4,034 4,030 3,798 3,830 4,552 3,670 3,900 4,324 3,610 3,822 3,534 3,313 4,097 4,694 4,132 3,852 3,557 3,865 4,189 4,549 4,452 4,910
2,034
832
16,077
25,107
4,751
2,620
24,987
951
77,360 65,660 77,022 76,134 76,667 78,731 80,620 78,397 81,229 81,421 79,218 95,830 94,407 73,820 90,170 89,394 81,732 87,021 84,615 90,263 94,816 96,907 87,792 97,452
262
21
1,686
3,902
2,027
1,935
18,376
186
28,394 24,724 34,295 34,308 34,184 35,433 36,597 32,646 33,917 33,050 31,796 33,133 28,354 27,139 35,657 33,534 31,130 33,452 33,147 34,575 38,023 37,387 35,234 33,826
14.6
14.8
Total Capital Ratio (%)3
Net impaired loans ratio (%)
14.1
8.7
12.3
8.7
Money supply (Annual % change)2
M1
M3
6.53
6.53
Base lending rate (%)1
3,416
659
2,757
3,160 6,815 1,237 4,530 5,111
2,754 6,288
831 3,319 3,885
406
527
406 1,210 1,226
Manufacturing projects
MITI Approvals (RM million)
New investment
Re-investment
1,889 5,854 1,046 5,402 5,268 9,064 2,727 3,487 6,676 3,182 5,863 19,093 5,198 8,702 7,877
1,153 5,107
357 3,828 3,579 6,055
938 2,215
588 2,505 1,707 18,215 3,480 6,969 1,740
736
747
689 1,575 1,689 3,008 1,789 1,272 6,089
677 4,156
878 1,718 1,733 6,137
7,781 7,391 9,066 7,939 7,904 7,587 8,910 7,825 8,561 7,875 7,534 9,828 7,972 6,463 8,260 8,318 8,367 8,716 7,283 8,588 6,911 7,740 7,998 9,562
31,486 25,280 33,372 34,184 31,345 32,853 33,779 31,398 31,466 33,915 30,358 30,019 34,072 27,711 32,279 32,808 34,567 33,568 34,690 37,624 34,989 41,092 31,408 33,574
Commercial bank rate.
Figures for 2013 are based on data published in the Monthly Statistical Bulletin December 2013 by Bank Negara Malaysia.
Beginning January 2013, capital components are reported based on Base III Capital Adequacy Framework.
Household sector = total loans by purpose to households.
5
Quarterly data.
n.e.c - not elsewhere classified.
4
3
2
Sep
Imports (RM million)
Capital goods
Intermediate goods
Note:
1
Aug
Sales of new commercial vehicles 6,346 4,569 7,060 6,925 6,236 6,361 7,399 6,052 6,534 7,148 6,503 8,003 5,571 5,014 6,797 6,244 6,074 6,663 6,689 6,227 6,374 6,643 6,691 9,137
(units)
Indicator / Month
II. INVESTMENT INDICATORS
32
Jan
Mar
Apr
2013
May June July
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2014
May June July
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
573
394
619
304
530
379
554
340
552
332
505
353
4,767
6,499
3,475
2,081
568
550
394
5,183
6,805
3,924
2,460
593
460
330
5,006
6,338
3,916
2,160
552
463
314
4,793
6,102
3,379
1,875
530
554
376
5,573
6,938
3,984
2,152
629
697
318
5,461
6,965
3,890
1,871
596
670
319
5,387
6,839
3,871
2,085
833
789
342
5,336
6,790
3,969
2,085
859
585
301
5,508
6,978
3,855
1,408
791
562
311
5,088
6,766
3,904
2,021
860
549
330
5.8
3.7
10.8
3.7
2.2
3,773
43,601
6,358
2.2
1.5
5.2
3,746
42,996
6,373
3.1
6.7
4.3
3,701
43,248
6,412
4.7
5.9
7.0
3,671
43,878
6,893
0.6
6.5
3,597
43,789
7,544
2,248
599
311
5,129
6,925
3,996
2,086
878
597
350
5,498
7,234
4,333
2,371
945
151.2
-
7.6
670
82.27
78.44
6,648
-
4.8
-
6.9
671
66.07
62.33
-
7.4
3,564
44,972
9,660
-
4.1
2.5
-5.0
-7.1
0.3
-7.1
8.1
-5.7
5.5
-3.1
2.4
-2.6
9.4
3.3
6.4
4.9
4.9
1.0
Note:
1
Total slaughtered.
2
Covers only Klang, Penang, Johor, Kuantan, Tanjung Pelepas, Bintulu and Kuching (TEUs: Twenty-foot equivalent units).
3
End of period.
4
Barrels per day.
5
Million standard cubic foot per day.
Manufacturing Sector
Production Index - Annual change (%)
Sales - Annual change (%)
5.8
1.0
2.6
4.0
6.3
4.8
4.9
11.4
9.9
16.1
6.4
8.9
5.0
7.8
8.0
5.5
9.2
3.8
3.2
1.6
7.4
5.0
4.7
4.2
3.2
2.5
3.9
2.6
7.8
2.1
Electricity Sector
9.8
-3.0
7.0
8.0
4.8
6.0
6.2
5.1
4.0
4.8
6.1
6.0
0.2
8.7
4.6
3.9
4.6
5.8
4.9
8.4
6.2
3.4
3.3
3.0
Maximum demand (MW)
15,367 15,101 16,133 16,356 16,562 16,530 15,783 15,616 16,196 16,031 15,948 15,947 15,416 15,937 16,294 16,354 16,583 16,901 16,443 15,998 16,299 16,260 16,194 15,793
Sales (GW hour)
8,326 8,417 7,508 8,601 8,641 8,617 8,523 8,859 8,204 8,406 8,595 8,301 8,400 8,393 8,003 8,711 8,746 8,869 8,963 8,792 8,581 8,638 8,806 8,548
11.5
613
90.90
87.27
6,489
-
6.4
3,788
42,604
6,241
2,234
Mining Sector
1.0
-3.0
1.2
1.5
7.1
7.0 16.2
-3.3
-5.6
-7.8
-2.3
2.3
-0.6
-1.6
-0.8
3.9
0.4
1.4
-7.8
3.6
7.1
Crude Oil & Condensates ('000 bpd)4 622
603
594
566
576
577
567
565
536
525
588
592
583
580
590
590
587
586
560
562
577
Tapis Blend (USD/barrel)
117.28 122.47 115.85 108.41 108.46 109.77 113.19 116.61 118.05 116.60 115.24 119.81 114.98 114.41 113.40 114.13 114.44 116.33 110.75 106.03 101.84
Dated Brent (USD/barrel)
112.97 115.97 109.24 102.87 103.03 103.11 107.72 110.96 111.63 109.58 108.08 110.67 107.63 108.81 107.12 107.79 109.68 111.87 106.97 101.92 97.32
5
Natural Gas (mmscfd)
6,563 6,509 6,468 6,020 6,123 6,288 6,160 5,769 6,011 6,173 6,633 6,551 6,567 6,562 6,529 6,310 6,289 6,615 5,095 6,294 6,360
Tin (tonnes)
356
303
326
286
288
312
260
316
340
259
308
342
288
286
319
274
320
345
314
327
-
0.9
3,830
42,445
6,212
2,273
5.1
-4.4
611
313
5,253
7,030
3,757
2,058
869
145.8
-
6,486 6,138 6,748 7,163 6,523 7,446 6,873 7,002 7,387 8,468 7,159 6,694 7,350 6,856 6,924 7,454 6,560 7,088 6,775 7,030 7,230 8,548
80,727 77,625 78,035 80,930 85,206 74,119 75,582 85,937 83,052 84,794 77,244 63,516 90,649 84,036 85,217 83,575 83,124 86,362 86,244 88,160 93,702 90,568
1,737 1,680 1,751 1,751 1,784 1,740 1,714 1,756 1,700 1,773 1,728 1,571 1,838 1,780 1,876 1,862 1,876 1,899 1,885 1,899 1,973 1,969
556
385
5,064
6,919
3,781
2,122
597
567
4,796
6,555
3,680
2,055
589
324
5,261
6,460
3,697
2,177
539
562
5,589
6,892
3,813
2,216
565
390
4,946
6,519
3,672
2,137
539
5,239
7,066
4,103
2,132
897
4,998
6,619
3,710
2,040
512
4,897
6,800
3,588
2,010
506
5,131
6,795
3,842
2,145
538
9,934 11,258 15,685 15,462 18,119 18,327 22,096 18,838 13,633 11,812 13,514
90
105
82
95
131
111
91
144
123
99
96
147.3
7,650
128
142.5 135.0 139.0 139.0 139.2 142.4 138.1 141.9 140.3 140.7 137.7 127.7 145.1 140.9 145.9 146.2 141.4 149.9 145.4
9,964 18,140 17,844 19,093
130
129
102
139
11,179 13,190 14,750 14,835 14,191 14,582 14,745 13,940 16,263 14,754 15,045 16,974 12,959 15,437 15,947 15,939 15,018 13,556 18,567 15,099 34,565 14,710 16,480
2,057 2,331 2,276 2,365 3,216 4,344 6,463 2,048 3,527 1,504 1,620 3,059 1,558 1,743 2,017 1,905 3,460 4,340 4,545 3,349 3,834 2,532 3,188
1,885 1,946 1,681 1,857 2,428 2,476 2,542 2,300 7,072
783
820 1,197 1,621 1,683 1,876 1,813 2,759 2,842 2,667 2,627 7,005 1,631 1,824
76
72
43
50
67
83
70
72
61
67
76
92
73
42
36
44
55
60
51
60
48
53
926.38 857.20 749.09 744.88 715.10 697.20 763.00 776.68 734.05 723.98 742.74 703.16 623.32 623.55 578.21 544.13 543.88 534.35 523.26 485.65 485.74 503.55
7,982 7,832 7,763 7,939 7,820 7,726 8,276 8,835 8,990 8,680 9,203 8,368 9,457 9,987 9,938 10,008 9,675 10,007 10,475 10,743 10,381 10,828 10,859
118
131
130
129
137
133
130
139
133
110
95
100
110
122
133
129
121
132
141
141
142
114
99
2,070 2,003 2,376 1,985 2,044 2,074 2,129 1,981 2,093 2,107 2,046 2,807 2,447 2,119 2,525 2,175 2,266 2,342 2,230
3.5
Aug
5.4
Industrial Production Index
- Annual change (%)
Communication Sector
(subscibers ‘000)3
Fixed Line
Cellular
Broadband (includes wireless LAN)
Sep
2,391.00 2,332.00 2,294.50 2,270.00 2,386.50 2,325.00 2,334.00 2,355.00 2,356.00 2,570.00 2,574.50 2,528.50 2,632.00 2,855.00 2,689.50 2,593.00 2,434.50 2,400.00 2,173.50 2,055.50 2,172.00 2219.00 2144.00
Transport Sector
Highway (million of vehicles)
134.0 120.4
Urban Rail (no. of passengers '000)
Ampang Line
4,862 4,714
Kelana Jaya Line
6,262 5,579
KTM Komuter
3,554 3,206
KL Monorail
2,158 1,838
KLIA Ekspres & Transit
461
432
KTM Intercity Train & ETS
320
351
(no. of passengers '000)
KTM Cargo Tonnage ('000)
568
487
Air (MAHB and Senai)
No. of passengers (‘000)
5,662 5,681
Cargo (tonnes)
71,422 63,346
2
Port - Container TEUs (‘000)
1,731 1,483
Tourism Sector
Tourist arrivals ('000)
Aug
1,297 1,325 1,367 1,384 1,417 1,675 1,735 1,912 1,972 1,861 1,669 1,509 1,276 1,497 1,556 1,657 1,570 1,666 2,032 1,897 1,893 1,751 1,365
Feb
Construction Sector
No. of houses approved
14,800 12,466 19,454 22,270 11,976 13,977
New advertising & sales permits (no.) 205
167
180
30
103
152
Agriculture Sector
Palm Oil ('000 tonnes)
1,602
2,221.00
Price (RM/tonne)
Rubber ('000 tonnes)
88
Price (sen/kg)
909.98
Cocoa, export unit value (RM/tonne) 8,149
Fish landing ('000 tonnes)
98
Livestock1 :
Poultry ('000)
13,617
Cattle
2,446
Goats
1,298
Indicator / Month
III. PRODUCTION INDICATORS
33
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mac
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9.4
1.5
Months of retained
imports
Short-term External
debt (Times)
1.5
9.5
1.5
9.5
1.4
9.5
1.4
9.6
1.4
9.5
1.3
9.6
1.3
9.3
1.4
9.7
1.3
9.7
1.3
9.6
1.3
9.5
1.3
9.4
1.3
9.1
1.3
9.1
1.2
9.2
1.2
9.1
1.2
9.0
1.2
9.0
1.2
9.0
1.2
8.7
1.2
8.8
1.1
8.4
1.1
8.4
116.0
411.7 405.5
428.6 429.0 431.3 433.3 436.8 432.8 438.3 428.1 444.6 446.2 443.8 441.9 436.0 427.6 424.6 427.8 427.0 423.6 423.5 424.2 416.9 419.7
140.2 140.3 139.7 140.3 141.4 136.1 137.8 134.8 136.5 137.1 136.3 134.9 133.1 130.6 130.2 131.2 130.9 131.9 131.8 132.0 127.3 128.1 125.7
RM billion
USD billion
Gross International Reserves
(end of period)
351 3,327 2,642
36,461 31,232 37,057 36,267 35,991 34,638 37,139 36,136 36,269 39,561 35,910 37,567 36,797 32,461 36,673 37,981 38,405 36,772 37,245 38,982 37,200 39,451 34,786 36,259
867 2,135 2,672 2,715 3,089 3,006 1,923 3,155 2,903 2,683 1,749 1,275 1,143 1,215 2,899
1,104 2,659 1,589
Trade balance
Total trade
906 1,342
17,679 14,286 17,734 17,959 17,543 16,648 18,136 17,000 16,798 18,423 16,411 17,281 17,437 14,653 16,885 17,649 18,328 17,748 18,051 18,883 17,151 19,550 15,730 16,809
Gross imports
349
18,783 16,946 19,323 18,308 18,449 17,990 19,003 19,135 19,470 21,138 19,499 20,286 19,360 17,808 19,788 20,332 20,077 19,023 19,194 20,098 20,050 19,901 19,057 19,450
Gross exports
USD (million)
96,748 115,161 110,608 108,579 109,072 118,494 118,585 117,883 125,755 114,932 122,066 121,593 107,388 120,398 123,737 123,990 118,346 118,598 123,902 119,718 128,956 116,328 126,192
3,355 8,238 4,938 1,065 2,734 4,226 2,766 7,007 8,684 8,632 9,885 9,767 6,355 10,437 9,529 8,742 5,645 4,105 3,639 3,862 9,330 1,148 11,127 9,193
July
110,805
June
Total trade
May
53,725 44,255 55,112 54,771 52,922 52,423 57,864 55,789 54,599 58,562 52,524 56,150 57,619 48,475 55,435 57,497 59,172 57,121 57,480 60,020 55,194 63,904 52,600 58,499
Apr
Trade balance
Mac
57,080 52,493 60,049 55,837 55,657 56,649 60,630 62,796 63,283 67,194 62,409 65,916 63,974 58,912 64,964 66,239 64,818 61,226 61,118 63,882 64,524 65,052 63,727 67,692
Feb
2014
Gross imports
Jan
2013
Gross exports
RM (million)
Indicator / Month
IV. EXTERNAL SECTOR
34
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Malaysian Economy

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