Celio Bermann

Transcription

Celio Bermann

Graduate Program
on Energyem
- PPGE
Programa Interunidades
de Pós-Graduação
Energia Institute
of Electrotechnics
and
Energy -- IEE
IEE
Instituto
de Eletrotécnica
e Energia
Universityde
of São
São Paulo
Paulo -- USP
USP
Universidade
Prof. Célio Bermann
Understanding BRICS Through the Prism of Energy:
The 5714:
Challenges
Moving
ENE
AnáliseofPolítica
daTowards
Questão Renewable
Energética
Energy
Durban - South Africa – 21st-23rd March 2013
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Country Profiles: BRAZIL
Célio Bermann
Professor of the Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE
University of São Paulo - USP
Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy
Supply - 2010
• non-renewables: 86,8%
13,2%
• renewables:
* Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.
Source: IEA - Key World Energy Statistics, 2012.
Figura
2: OfertaEnergy
Interna Supply:
de Energia
no Brasil,
Domestic
Brazil,
20112011
272,3 millions toe (2% of world energy)
Renewables:
Brazil: 44,1%
OECD: 7,8%
World: 13,3%
Biomass
Oil and oil
products
Hydraulic and
Electricity
Natural Gas
Uranium - U3O8
Biomass:
Coal
Firewood: 9,7%?!
?!
Sugar cane products: 15,7%
Others: 4,1%
Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira (Brazilian Energy Review), July 2012.
Figura
da Oferta
Internabydesource:
Energia
Share3:ofDistribuição
Domestic Energy
Supply
segundoBrazil,
a fonte 2011
- Brasil, 2011.
Urânio- U3O8
Natural
Gas Uranium
Gás
Natural
Coal and
coal
Carvão
Mineral
products
e Derivados
10,1%
1,5%
5,6%
Oil and oil
products
Petróleo
e Derivados
38,6%
Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira, July 2012.
Hydraulic and
Hidráulica
e
Electricity
Eletricidade
14,7 %
Sugar Cane
Derivados
da canaProducts
de-açúcar
15,7%
Lenha
e carvão
Firewood
and
vegetal
Charcoal
9,7%
• non-renewables: 55,8%
• renewables:
44,2%
Figura 4: Oferta
Interna
de Energia
Elétrica
Domestic
Electricity
Supply:
Brazil,
2011
no Brasil,
2011TWh)
(% e TWh).
(% and
TWh
Total
568,6
Wind
Import
Industrial Gas
Biomass
Oil products
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Hydro
Natural Gas
Oil products
Nuclear
Coal
Biomass
Industrial Gas
Wind
Import
Renewables:
Brazil: 87,81%
OECD: 17,8%
World: 19,5%
Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira (Brazilian Energy Review), July 2012.
428,6
26,2
12,1
15,7
6,5
32,2
8,9
2,7
35,9
External Energy Dependency in Brazil - 2011
Source: MME-Brazilian Energy Review: preliminary results, July 2012
FOSSIL FUELS
Brazilian Fossil Fuels Reserves - 2011
Source: MME/EPE (Energy Research Company). Brazilian Energy Balance 2012/year 2011, 2012.
Pre-Salt Oil Recovery
Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em
Energia
Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE
Universidade de São Paulo - USP
ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão
Post-Salt Layer
Energética
Bears most of Brazil’s reserves
Campos Basin: 2,700-4,300m
Salt Layer
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
An irregular layer, the thickness of
wich tanges from 1,000 to 2,000m
Pre-Salt Layer
Santos Basin: 7,000m
Source: Petrobrás, 2011.
Espírito Santo
Basin
Energia
Energética
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Campos Basin
300 km
800 km
Pre Salt
Reserves
Santos Basin
Energia
Pre-Salt Production (x 1,000 barrels/day
Energética
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Pre-Salt Petrobras
Pre-Salt Partners
Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)
NUCLEAR
Nuclear Power in Brazil
Plant
Type
Status
Total
MW(e)
ANGRA 1
PWR
in operation
626
ANGRA 2
PWR
in operation
1229
ANGRA 3
PWR
under construction
1245
Angra 2
Angra 1
1229 MW
626 MW
op. start: 07/21/2000
op. start: 04/01/1982
Maquete eletrônica de Angra III
Fonte: Eletronuclear
Number of Inhabitants
Radius (km)
Nuclear Power Problems in Brazil
Brazil has no contingency plan for evacuation of the city of Angra dos Reis if a
problem similar to what happened at Japan’s Fukushima plant were to occur.
The Angra emergency plan establishes removal of the population – a total of
15 thousand people – in a 5 km radius from the plants, which is the minimum
required by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The problem that the Fukushima accident highlighted: the dependence on
pumping water in order to cool the reactor so as to prevent the fuel rods from
melting.
The electric transmission lines may knock down due to landslides, with a supply
system failure, similar to what’s happened at the Fukushima plants in Japan.
Built near the shore, the plants also run the risk of landslides damaging auxiliary
facilities, such as waste deposits.
Landslides in region of
Angra dos Reis
Rio-Santos road and Angra dos Reis Nuclear Plants Region
Rio-Santos Road
the only evacuation way
HYDROPOWER
Hidropower in Brazil
Current Installed Capacity: 83,436 MW (November/2012),
wich represents “only” 34,3% of the brazilian total
hidraulic potential (243.4 thousand MW)
► 63% of the potential to be explored is placed in Amazon
Region (Basin of Madeira, Tocantins, Araguaia, Xingu and
Tapajós rivers)
► 26 hydropower plants are planed or are under
construction in Amazon Region
- Santo Antonio and Jirau Dams (Madeira river)
- Belo Monte Dam (Xingu river)
Source: MME/EPE - PDE 2021.
Still lifes in the artificial lake produced by Balbina hydroelectric plant, which flooded 2.6 thousand
kilometers of native forests. Photo: Ed Ferreira/AE
Source: Glenn Switkes – IRN, 2008.
Available in:
http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2486/images/
Climate/BalbinaJunglenewsFlickr.jpg
First Xingu River’s Indigenous People Meeting (February 1989), in Altamira (PA).
“STOP BELO MONTE DAM”
Source: http://apatrulhadalama.blogspot.com.br/2012/06/parem-belo-monte-usina-enfrenta.html
Source:
http://www.ips.org/TV/rio20/belo-montee-uma-ferida-aberta-na-amazonia/
Source: http://www.ips.org/TV/rio20/belo-monte-referencia-internacional-do-movimento-contrabarragens/
Xingu Riverside Settlement’s Demonstration, June 2012
The towers of the Church of Itá (RS state), the first municipality fully covered
by the waters of a dam
BIOMASS
Brazilian Electricity Production
from Biomass by source
Wood
Biogas
Rice Husk
Black Liquor
Sugar cane
bagasse
Source: ANEEL – Banco de Informações de Geração, 2012
436 sugar plants: 9,3 GW
Sugar cane plantation fire in Araraquara region (São Paulo state).
Photo: Andrew Allen in 'Unesp Ciência', February 2010.
Manual sugar cane harvest. Source: Caderno Copersucar, 1981.
Raw materials used for Biodiesel production in Brazil
Soybean oil
Livestock fat
Cotton oil
Other fatty materials
Source: ANP (Brazilian Oil National Agency), October 2009.
Soybean Production in Brazil
Amazon Tropical Rain Forest
Source: CONAB, 2008.
Biodiesel from soybean in Amazon
Source: http://www.socioambiental.org/esp/soja.br
Soybean in Amazon forest
Source: Field Research, 09/26/2009.
Biodiesel from soybean in Amazon
WIND POWER
Windpower Potential in Brazil: 143,500 MW – 272,2 TWh/year
Fator de capacidade eólico dos países
Wind Power - Capacity Factor around the World
Fonte: EIA
50%
Fator de capacidade
(%)
Capacity
Factor (%)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Source: V. Lazzareschi (2012) according IEA, 2011.
Capacity Factor (%)
Wind Power - Capacity Factor in Brazil: Estimated X
E nos mais recentesReal
a história começa a se repetir
Estimated
Source: ONS, 2010.
Source: EPE/MME – Brazilan Energy Plan (PDE 2021).
Electricity Consumption by Sector: Brazil – 2011
SECTORS
Energy sector
Mining/Pelletization
Agriculture and Livestock
Heavy Industry*
Light Industry
Transportation
Residential
Commercial/Services
Public
Total
Electricity Consumption
(on %)
4,9
2,5
4,5
23,9
17,2
0,4
23,3
15,4
7,9
100,0
480,12 TWh/year
* Heavy Industry sector includes cement industries, pig-iron and steel, iron-alloys,
non-ferrous/other metallurgical (aluminium), chemical, paper and pulp.
Source: MME/EPE (Energy Research Company). Brazilian Energy Balance 2012/year 2011, 2012.
Industry: 48,5%
Brazil’s GDP Growth Rate (estimated): 4,4% per year
Electricity Consumption Rate: 5,7% per year
Prediction of the growth of production of minerals and
primary goods in Brazil
Iron ore: 319 Mt (2008)
585 Mt (2015)
795 Mt (2022)
1.098 Mt (2030)
Source: MME – Mining National Plan 2030.
Steel: 33,7 Mt (2008)
52,6 Mt (2014)
72,3 Mt (2019)
Primary Aluminium: 1,66 Mt (2008)
1,67 Mt (2014)
2,54 Mt (2020)
Ferro-alloys: 0,98 Mt (2008)
1,49 Mt (2014)
2,06 Mt (2020)
Pulp: 12,7 Mt (2008)
19,4 Mt (2014)
28,0 Mt (2019)
Source: EPE/MME – Brazilian Energy Plan 2019 and 2020 (PDE2019 and PDE 2020).
These data confirm the way in which the Brazilian
industrial production is entering in the international
economy globalization process, limiting the role of
mere exporter of low value-added commodities and
high energy content.
Industrial Energy Intensity (toe/thousand US$ 2009)
China
Source:
Africa
Australia
Brazil
Russia
World
United
States
OECD
Japan
United
Kingdom
Mexico
Graduate Program on Energy - PPGE
Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE
University of São Paulo - USP
THANK YOU!!!
NGYABONGA!!!
Contact:
Prof. Celio Bermann
Tel.: + 55 (11) 3091.2636
e-mail: cbermann@iee.usp.br

Celio Bermann

Transcription

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