Introduction to handicapping with Pace Pals How to use Pace Pals

Introduction to handicapping with Pace Pals (Deluxe Edition)
by Craig Peterson
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How to use Pace Pals
1 The Basics, bet the icons
Rabbits — if you like your
horse to be in the lead.
Foxes — if you like your horse
to be close to the leaders,
ready to pounce at any time.
Hounds — run in the pack
and make their run later in the
race
Shopping - getting value for your $$
3 If you know how to bargain shop you can use the 100% Bet Line to find
overlays (horses whose odds are higher than their chance of winning) and
play like a pro. The 100% Bet Line represents how many times out of 100
races each horse would win - the lower the odds the more often the horse
figures to win (ie. A horse with a 33% chance of winning would have odds
of 2-1, a horse with a 10% chance of winning 9-1). Horses whose odds
are twice the 100% Bet Line odds are great bets and should be bet win &
place if over 10-1 odds. Overlays add exceptional value to exactas, trifectas
and superfectas when used with other overlays and the horses with the
lowest odds, horses with the best chances of winning, on the 100% Bet
Line. You don’t have to know anything about horses, if you know a bargain
when you see one… you’ll win!
Handicap with Pace Pals
Turtles — relax early in the
race and make a big late run
Pace Pals takes key elements of the each horse’s past performances and
puts them in a visual format to help you quickly handicap a race.
4 Check the Rating Graph to see who the fastest horse is and how
Dark Horses — are 1st-time
starters or foreign horses that
haven’t shown what running
style they prefer.
Generally Rabbits & Foxes win most of the
sprints (races at less than a mile). As the
races get longer the Hounds & Turtles win
more often and excel on the turf (grass).
Check the Pace Pals running style chart to
see the number of wins for each running style
for each race’s distance and surface
2 Selections & Comments
Read the analysis of each race and bet the
recommended horses.
competitive the race is. If all the horses are about equal, there is a good
chance for an upset.
5 Check the +/- ratings for Post Position, Jockey & Trainer…you want to
see lots of ++ for the horses you like and minus’ for the ones you want to
beat.
6 Check the Running Styles Chart see how many Rabbits, Foxes, Turtles
& Hounds are in each race and the number of wins for each running style at
that distance & surface. If there are lots of horses with the same style then
there is likely to be traffic troubles for those horses and it is unlikely that they
will be comfortable during the running of the race. If there are too many
Rabbits (early speed horses), it may set the race up for a lone Fox, a horse
who can relax just off the lead, or for the Hounds or Turtles, (horses that
come-from-behind). Conversely, if there is only one Rabbit in the race it is
dangerous no matter what the odds or even if the running style history says
it is hard to win on the lead. Anytime the race sets up for one horse’s preferred
running style it will likely run it’s best race.
7 Check the Morning Line odds (the odds the track handicapper predicts
the horses will be at post time) & the 100% Bet Line odds (our handicapper’s
opinion of how many times out of 100 races each horse would win). An
overlay is when in your opinion a horse’s odds are greater than its chances
of winning. The 100% Bet Line lets you see our handicapper’s opinion of
each horses chances.
8 Check the Selections and Analysis to see what factors the handicapper
w
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.PacePals.com
Copyright © 2006 Pace Pals, Inc.
all rights reserved
thought were the keys to the race and what intangibles that influenced his
selections. Pace Pals are like Cliff Notes or Spark Notes. They cover key
elements of handicapping, but handicapping a race is an art that involves as
many as 20 horses & jockeys in a race and all the human elements that bring
them together. It is fun to predict what might happen and there is great
satisfaction in seeing a race unfold the way you thought it would and to cheer
your horses to the wire. Have fun and we’ll see you in the winners’ circle.
Pace Pal R
Unknown
©2004 Pace Pals all rights reserved
1
+/-
Morning
Line
Maiden Claiming 40000
Pace Pals
Rating
o
131
3
4
5
6
o
o
o
15
5
3
5
HEAD OF THE GAME
IT'S IN THE FRIDGE
ALBACORE BOB
KITTY CALIENTE
115
7
8
9
10
o
+
+
+
15
4
15
15
TOM N' CHERRY
SEVEN LUCKY J'S
BRAVE JUSTICE
BUBSY
Wins for each running style:
Allowance (Turf)
113
126
Ź
134
o
Ź
Ź
o
-
5.5 Fur
Pace Pals
Rating
135
0
0
5/2 CHRISTIANA'S HEAT
139
>
5 6 -
12 DEBATING SOCIETY
2 BEA'S CEE
124
140
Ź
7 -
6
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
o
o
o
o
o
5
5
30
12
20
20
5
15
5/2
3
EASTER BORN
HUGH O'NEILL
HIGH RATEOF RETURN
MASSIVE ATTACK
CAT REPORT
PACE TO BURN
SIR DYNAMITE
BUILT FOR THEDERBY
BOB BENOIT
MOST DECORATED
Wins for each running style:
Claiming 8000
140
Pace Pals
Rating
128
128
96
120
121
128
129
125
132
131
1 1/16 miles
1 +
5
CORVINUS
Pace Pals
Rating
135
2 o
20 BABCOCK LAKE
119
3
4
5
6
3
10
12
4
4
Morning
+/- Line
o
o
o
o
7 o
8 o
PREACHINTOTHECHOIR
ROCKIN HOSS
MYSTERIOUS CAT
FORTUNATE PROPHET
138
133
126
131
20 RIDINGWITHTHEKING
12 DARK PAST
127
127
9 o
10 o
7/2 CADDYMASTER
12 CANDY'S BRO
135
130
11 o
20 SWISS LAD
Wins for each running style:
127
check numbers with official program
6.0 Fur
11
3
Ź
4 -
6.0 Turf
+/- Trainer
ESPINOZA V
+ VELASQUEZ DAN o
GRYDER A T
Ź
>
10
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
19
o STUTE MELVIN F - PEARSON MOLL +
NAKATANI C S
o MILLER PETER
BAZE T C
+ PEARSON MOLL +
POTTS C L
o ABRAMS BARRY o
8
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
13
>
7
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
11
TALAMO JOSEPH
...
(Wire to wire)
Pace Pals Rating Graph
..
+
o DOMINGUEZ CAE -
Jockey
+/- Trainer
SOLIS A
o ABRAMS BARRY o
PEDROZA M A
o KITCHINGMAN A ++
- HARRINGTON PA o
BEJARANO R
+ KNAPP STEVE
GRYDER A T
o JONES MARTIN F +
MIGLIORE R
o PERIBAN JORGE +
NAKATANI C S
o O'NEILL DOUG
28
11
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
125
130
135
140
o
o
120
Jockey
+/- Trainer
GARCIA MARTIN
o MCANALLY RON - DELEON RAFAEL o
POTTS C L
o METZ JEFFREY
130
135
140
145
Pace Pals Rating Graph
+/-
JOHN K
125
-
ENRIQUEZ I D
- DOMINGUEZ CAE -
CEDENO A
- FERNANDEZ VIC --
GRYDER A T
o ORMAN J MICHA -
COURT J K
o SHIDAKER DUFF
TALAMO JOSEPH
o HOFMANS DAVID o
FLORES D R
+ HEADLEY BRUCE +
90
+/- Trainer
+/-
...
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Pace Pals Rating Graph
135
..
ARAMBULA PEDRO - MCFARLANE DA +
>
Ź
120
Pace Pals Rating Graph
+/-
BLANC B
115
MARTINEZ MICHAE - LOPEZ JASON
>
Ź
+
o ROSALES RICHA o
110
Jockey
Ź
Ź
+/-
ENRIQUEZ I D
MARTINEZ MICHAE - STUTE GARY
135
137
Morning
Line
Runs out front
(on the pace)
Jockey
ROSARIO JOEL
10 MY MALOOF ROCKER
6 LOVEHI
+/-
(from behind)
Rabbit
Fox
With early leaders
ARAMBULA PEDRO - SHERLOCK GAR o
2 o
3 o
FILTER
Wins for each running style:
Maiden Claiming 25000
>
+
4
1 +
*
Ź
Ź
1 +
3
AMERICA'S FRIEND
Hound
Runs in the pack
Hollywood Park - July 03, 2008
20 SPINCO BOB
7/2 FIL'S REGENT
2
(from far behind)
or foreign horse
1 2 -
Morning
+/- Line
Tur tle
Runs best late
1st-time starter
Wins for e
see which
why!!!! at
from far b
who lead f
distance on
actually w
So, on
late) and h
actually ha
dominate o
Ź
o MOGER ED JR
o
BAZE T C
+ STUTE GARY
+
MARTINEZ MICHAE - SISE CLIFFORD J +
Ź
>
Ź
>
>
ROSARIO JOEL
CONTRERAS LUIS
+ SIERRA CIRILO M o
TALAMO JOSEPH
o LEWIS LISA L
ARRIAGA O
o NETTLES KENNE -
-
QUINONEZ ALONSO o KNAPP STEVE
o
ESPINOZA V
+ HESS R B JR
o
COUTON JULIEN
o ASSINESI PAUL
--
CAYO D J
16
15
22
14
** > denotes secondary running style
GUERRERO ANG 115
120
125
130
135
140
145
5
+/-
Morning
Line
Ferdinand Handicap $75,000
1 +
2 o
3 o
10 DECADO
3 TISSY FIT
4 LANG FIELD
4 5 6 -
5 CHARMO
7/2 TIZ AFIRE
2 DILEMMA
Wins for each running style:
*
Pace Pals
Rating
143
140
150
+/-
Morning
Line
Maiden Claiming 25000
>
Ź
145
145
146
Ź
Ź
Ź
>
+/- Trainer
+/-
ESPINOZA V
+ GALLAGHER PAT o
ROSARIO JOEL
o SADLER JOHN W +
COURT J K
o SHERMAN ART ++
BAZE T C
+ CANANI JULIO C +
BEJARANO R
+ JONES MARTIN F +
MIGLIORE R
o GALLAGHER PAT o
19
11
28
11
** > denotes secondary running style
1 1/16 miles
check numbers with official program
6
Ź
Ź
Jockey
Pace Pals
Rating
100
Ź
Jockey
+/- Trainer
+/-
PUGLISI I L
-- DAGONEL ART
+
50 DINNER AND A DANCE
scr MY SISTER LAUREEN
3 o
4 o
15 DANCE TO MY LOU
5/2 DREAMS AFLEET
MIGLIORE R
o TSAGALAKIS MA --
130
Ź
>
GARCIA MARTIN
o CERIN VLADIMIR +
5 o
15 SERIES OF DREAMS
115
>
Ź
MARTINEZ MICHAE - STUTE MELVIN F -
6 o
7 o
12 WARREN'S DREAMING
5 ON VAPORS
122
72
8 o
8
SERPETINESERPETINE
122
9 o
6
IF NOT FOR YOU
122
10 o
3
BURNT
125
11
12
13
14
15
12
20
30
30
8
ARMENIAN DANCER
ASK MY LAWYER
MME GOLDPIECE
CONTINENTAL DANCER
CLASSY BAY
Wins for each running style:
Alw Opt Clm 62500 (Turf)
116
120
115
121
107
7
8
o
o
o
o
o
+/-
Morning
Line
1 +
2 o
6 T'AINT WAR SIR
20 RUSH WITH THUNDER
3
4
5
6
7
5
4
9/5
7/2
6
o
-
DAKOTA PADRE
WITHIN REASON
RON BOB AND DAVE
WORCHESTER
GWEEBARRA
Wins for each running style:
Maiden Claiming 25000
6.0 Fur
Pace Pals
Rating
145
145
141
144
145
139
138
6.0 Turf
1 +
30 TURKO SKY
Pace Pals
Rating
111
2 o
15 VICTORVILLE
122
3 o
4 -
8
8
+/-
Morning
Line
VERYPQ
KIRBY'S GLUE FOOT
123
128
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
16
Ź
10
126
127
Ź
8 o
9 o
6
8
HUSS THE KING
BABY GOTHAM
128
128
Ź
10 o
4
MAJ. TROUBLE
Wins for each running style:
check numbers with official program
+ PENDER MICHAE +
NAKATANI C S
o O'NEILL DOUG
>
BEJARANO R
+ FRANKEL ROBER++
Ź
RODRIGUEZ, N
- PAPAPRODROM o
ROSE K M
15
Ź
Ź
Ź
8
150
155
Pace Pals Rating Graph
..
o
22
14
Ź
MARTINEZ SILVE --
VERGARA O
- FERNANDEZ VIC --
ROSARIO JOEL
o SADLER JOHN W +
65
Jockey
+/- Trainer
ESPINOZA V
+ MCANALLY RON -
>
PEDROZA M A
o AVILA A C
o
FLORES D R
+ MOGER ED JR
o
GRYDER A T
o KORINER BRIAN +
13
Ź
Ź
7
TALAMO JOSEPH
o ELLIS RONALD W +
SOLIS A
o FRANKEL ROBER++
135
+/- Trainer
80
85
90
95
100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135
140
145
150
Pace Pals Rating Graph
+/-
- GARCIA OSCAR --
MARTINEZ CAMPOS + HAN MOON S
-
PEDROZA M A
o
o LEVINE PETER
ESPINOZA V
+ JACKSON DECLA -
>
CONTRERAS LUIS
+ PERIBAN JORGE +
ARRIAGA O
o NELSON HARRY --
Ź
Ź
75
QUINONEZ ALONSO o DRYSDALE NEIL +
>
>
70
Pace Pals Rating Graph
+/-
Ź
JOHN K
Ź
12 FAMOUS TOUCH
5 KHUN DAN
145
MARTINEZ CAMPOS + TRUMAN EDDIE o
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
6 7 -
*
- LOPEZ JASON
BAZE T C
Jockey
133
...
140
..
- GUTIERREZ JOR o
JOHN K
Ź
5/2 ATHENRY
132
Ź
Ź
5 -
1 1/16 miles
ATKINSON P
Pace Pals Rating Graph
135
1 +
2 o
+
...
MARTINEZ MICHAE - STUTE MELVIN F -
>
TALAMO JOSEPH
o MCANALLY RON -
ROSARIO JOEL
o KNAPP STEVE
GARCIA MARTIN
o HARRINGTON M -
19
11
28
11
** > denotes secondary running style
o
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140