Introduction to handicapping with Pace Pals How to use Pace Pals

Transcription

Introduction to handicapping with Pace Pals (Deluxe Edition)
by Craig Peterson
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How to use Pace Pals
1 The Basics, bet the icons
Rabbits — if you like your
horse to be in the lead.
Foxes — if you like your horse
to be close to the leaders,
ready to pounce at any time.
Hounds — run in the pack
and make their run later in the
race
Shopping - getting value for your $$
3 If you know how to bargain shop you can use the 100% Bet Line to find
overlays (horses whose odds are higher than their chance of winning) and
play like a pro. The 100% Bet Line represents how many times out of 100
races each horse would win - the lower the odds the more often the horse
figures to win (ie. A horse with a 33% chance of winning would have odds
of 2-1, a horse with a 10% chance of winning 9-1). Horses whose odds
are twice the 100% Bet Line odds are great bets and should be bet win &
place if over 10-1 odds. Overlays add exceptional value to exactas, trifectas
and superfectas when used with other overlays and the horses with the
lowest odds, horses with the best chances of winning, on the 100% Bet
Line. You don’t have to know anything about horses, if you know a bargain
when you see one… you’ll win!
Handicap with Pace Pals
Turtles — relax early in the
race and make a big late run
Pace Pals takes key elements of the each horse’s past performances and
puts them in a visual format to help you quickly handicap a race.
4 Check the Rating Graph to see who the fastest horse is and how
Dark Horses — are 1st-time
starters or foreign horses that
haven’t shown what running
style they prefer.
Generally Rabbits & Foxes win most of the
sprints (races at less than a mile). As the
races get longer the Hounds & Turtles win
more often and excel on the turf (grass).
Check the Pace Pals running style chart to
see the number of wins for each running style
for each race’s distance and surface
2 Selections & Comments
Read the analysis of each race and bet the
recommended horses.
competitive the race is. If all the horses are about equal, there is a good
chance for an upset.
5 Check the +/- ratings for Post Position, Jockey & Trainer…you want to
see lots of ++ for the horses you like and minus’ for the ones you want to
beat.
6 Check the Running Styles Chart see how many Rabbits, Foxes, Turtles
& Hounds are in each race and the number of wins for each running style at
that distance & surface. If there are lots of horses with the same style then
there is likely to be traffic troubles for those horses and it is unlikely that they
will be comfortable during the running of the race. If there are too many
Rabbits (early speed horses), it may set the race up for a lone Fox, a horse
who can relax just off the lead, or for the Hounds or Turtles, (horses that
come-from-behind). Conversely, if there is only one Rabbit in the race it is
dangerous no matter what the odds or even if the running style history says
it is hard to win on the lead. Anytime the race sets up for one horse’s preferred
running style it will likely run it’s best race.
7 Check the Morning Line odds (the odds the track handicapper predicts
the horses will be at post time) & the 100% Bet Line odds (our handicapper’s
opinion of how many times out of 100 races each horse would win). An
overlay is when in your opinion a horse’s odds are greater than its chances
of winning. The 100% Bet Line lets you see our handicapper’s opinion of
each horses chances.
8 Check the Selections and Analysis to see what factors the handicapper
w
ww
.PacePals.com
Copyright © 2006 Pace Pals, Inc.
all rights reserved
thought were the keys to the race and what intangibles that influenced his
selections. Pace Pals are like Cliff Notes or Spark Notes. They cover key
elements of handicapping, but handicapping a race is an art that involves as
many as 20 horses & jockeys in a race and all the human elements that bring
them together. It is fun to predict what might happen and there is great
satisfaction in seeing a race unfold the way you thought it would and to cheer
your horses to the wire. Have fun and we’ll see you in the winners’ circle.
Pace Pal R
Unknown
1st-time starter
©2004 Pace Pals all rights reserved
1
Morning
Line
+/-
Maiden Claiming 50000
1
2
3
4
5
+
+
3
5
5
8
15
6
+
5/2 STAR NICHOLAS
7
8
+
++
10
6
*
FREE UP GRADE
PEACE PROSPECT
ELUSIVE CHIEF
HOLD THAT EXPOSURE
VALENTINE VOW
HOLD THIS
DEVIL MAKER
Wins for each running style:
or foreign horse
Pace Pals
Rating
5
6
15
11
50
128
133
129
118
122
8
136
4
3
128
129
7.0 Fur
100%
Line
1
6
ABBEY CAT
11
Pace Pals
Rating
129
2
3
8
12
MIKEY BONES
COMPANY SECRET
9/2
6
132
139
2
Claiming 8000
(from far behind)
Hound
Runs in the pack
(from behind)
Jockey
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
+ O'NEILL DOUG
o
VALDIVIA J JR
o HAN MOON S
--
BAZE M C
+ HESS R B JR
o
GARCIA MARTIN
o CERIN VLADIMIR +
ROSARIO JOEL
o MCANALLY RON -
>
MIGLIORE R
o EURTON PETER o
Ź
Ź
COURT J K
o GREEN JENNY C +
NAKATANI C S
o CANANI NICK
Jockey
Ź
+/-
BEJARANO R
4
4
1
1
** > denotes secondary running style
Ź
Ź
Ź
+/- Trainer
>
POTTS C L
>
+/- Trainer
+/-
o METZ JEFFREY
-
MARTINEZ CAMPOS + LEWIS CRAIG A
o
o BATTERSHELL PAUL THOMAS
6
+
5
DRASTIC TACTICS
25
132
7
+
15
LA MANDONNA
25
140
8
++
6
HELMSGOLD
11
139
9
++
7/2 ANNIE OAKLEAF
8
139
10
++
9/2
3
Morning
Line
+/-
1
++
9/2 TRIPPED THE LIGHT
5
137
7.0 Fur
Pace Pals
Rating
129
2
3
4
++
++
--
6
30
8
MAGGIE LANE
GRANDMA ROSIE
E BEE GIRL
15
50
6
117
114
130
Ź
Ź
>
Ź
NAKATANI C S
o MOLINA MARK S o
5
--
5
BACKSTROKE
9
128
Ź
>
BAZE T C
+ BELL THOMAS R --
6
--
8
OVERT N OUT
15
123
>
BAZE M C
+ O'NEILL DOUG
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
--
7/2
20
12
12
8
20
scr
6
25
15
11
15
11
134
117
119
128
122
118
BEJARANO R
+ SADLER JOHN W +
GARCIA MARTIN
o CONLON MELOD ++
4
Morning
Line
+/-
TOPAZ MOON
TASSAJARA
RUN SAVIO RUN
CALIFORNIA DEMON
PRECESSION
GO ROUND N CIRCLES
SPEED PASSPORT
Claiming 40000 (Turf)
100%
Line
100%
Line
Ź
4
>
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
2
-
5/2 POTENTIAL
11
2
3
o
o
12
8
SAMWISE
SPARKLING NOTION
9
11
147
140
Ź
4
+
6
RAISE THE HEAT
5
147
Ź
5
6
+
+
3
8
SACRED LIGHT
BLUE TORPEDO
6
3
147
149
7
+
15
11
142
136
15
144
1 1/16 Turf
12
*
MONK
check numbers with official program
+ ZUCKER HOWAR o
>
DELGADILLO A
o DELEON RAFAEL -
ESPINOZA V
+ MENDOZA JESU
-
>
BERRIO O A
o AVILA A C
o
Ź
BAZE T C
+ DELIMA JOSE E
o
1
1
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
1
8
o GUTIERREZ JOR o
TALAMO JOSEPH
125
Jockey
1 1/16 miles
Pace Pals
Rating
147
9
4
PEDROZA M A
Ź
Ź
4
+ KRULJAC J ERIC o
o LOBO PAULO H
OLIVERA J M
-
>
2
** >
The Eyes And Ears Of California Racing
135
130
135
140
..
140
145
Pace Pals Rating Graph
..
o
COURT J K
o O'NEILL DOUG
SOLIS A
+ FANNING JERRY o
o
MARTINEZ CAMPOS + MILLER PETER
+
o MEREDITH DEREK
110
BEJARANO R
130
+
+/- Trainer
+/-
...
115
120
125
130
135
140
..
+ KORINER BRIAN +
MARTINEZ CAMPOS + MARTINEZ RAFA o
Ź
GARCIA MARTIN
o MILLER PETER
+
>
TALAMO JOSEPH
+ CARAVA JACK
o
Ź
GRYDER A T
o PERIBAN JORGE +
>
Ź
Ź
Ź
MIGLIORE R
o METZ JEFFREY
-
BAZE T C
+ GAINES CARLA
++
PUGLISI I L
-- STUTTS CHARLES R
PEDROZA M A
o CANANI NICK
3
2
1
denotes secondary running style
++
ROGER STEIN SHOW
WWW.TODAYSRACINGDIGEST.COM
...
125
GONZALEZ ANTONIO
4
Ź
>
Ź
+/-
ROSARIO JOEL
Jockey
>
+/- Trainer
ESPINOZA V
ALMEIDA G F
6
...
120
o MARTINEZ RAFA o
131
128
>
..
GLADNEY D
99
6
Ź
GARCIA MARTIN
MEG'S OPERATOR
WARREN'S ALOHAMOON
Ź
...
115
30
12
9/2 ROCKY ROAD
20 CAN'T STOP SLEW
(Wire to wire)
++
+
+
QUEEN OF THE DERBY
Runs out front
(on the pace)
4
5
3
Rabbit
Fox
With early leaders
Hollywood Park - May 07, 2008
100%
Line
Morning
Line
+/-
Tur tle
Runs best late
Wins for e
see which
why!!!! at
from far b
who lead f
distance on
actually w
So, on
late) and h
actually ha
dominate o
Listen to Roger Live on
Saturday & Sunday
8:00 AM Pacific
130
135
140
145
150
155
5
1
+/-
Morning
Line
100%
Line
Pace Pals
Rating
scr
9
scr
11
150
--
TIZ AFIRE
FREESGOOD
SCAT THIEF
--
8
4
156
Ź
>
MIGLIORE R
o ELLIS RONALD W++
5/2
153
>
Ź
GRYDER A T
o DOLLASE CRAIG ++
ALL MAN
9
148
Ź
CESC
9
51
NO DREAM
11
151
Ź
>
MARVEL WOOD
11
157
7.5 Fur
>
Ź
5
+
9/5
6
+
3
7
+
8
8
+
6
9
++
20
*
DECLAN'S MOON
TROPIC STORM
Ź
149
>
+/-
Morning
Line
20
2
-
5
3
4
5
6
++
++
++
30
8
4
3
7
++
6
FRIENDLY HALF
99
Pace Pals
Rating
144
IVEMADAHUGEMISTKE
9
126
OL'DOGTOWN
TRIBAL DEAL
RUSSIAN LIQUOR
ADHERE
50
4
6
3
118
118
134
NEAR SIGHTED
11
131
100%
Line
20
5
20
ROYAL GOLD CAT
CARMENS EXCESS
TALK CIRCUIT
50
15
15
127
11
12
30
12
NORCO PAL
LA VIE'S TOPPER
50
25
120
124
13
scr
OUR BUDDY KEVIN
14
15
10
scr
scr
WARREN'S OPERATOR
OTISISGOLD
MAGIC MIKE
Alw Opt Clm 40000 (Turf)
-
3
SUPER STRUT
8
+
5
SOUPY
8
149
3
+
5/2
CEDAR MOUNTAIN
9/2
146
4
5
6
-
4
5
20
BOOMING COMPS
FARLEIGH HOUSE
GRANDPA ROY
8
9/2
25
144
140
138
REPETOIRE
9
143
TWO TRAILS
Claiming 8000
11
-
8
--
20
1
15
SUMMER SURVIVOR
15
141
1 1/2 Turf
Pace Pals
Rating
135
2
3
4
5
scr
scr
7/2
20
THE RYE MAN
CORVINUS
BEWITCHING BARTOK
CAPT. WILSON
scr
scr
6
15
146
138
Morning
Line
+/-
100%
Line
6
+
8
QUIET PERIOD
8
139
7
+
6
JEALOUS PROFIT
11
146
8
9
10
11
12
+
++
++
++
++
30
30
5
4
15
FLYING BEARCAT
BUDDYANDROWDY
SI CHIMI
ARROYO TRABUCO
MAMMOTH POWER
15
50
9
7/2
15
140
141
144
142
140
13
14
15
++
scr
scr
8
SI SE PUEDE
PERFECT LORE
SWING YOUR PARTNER
scr
scr
50
16
++
8
WARREN'S SECRET
15
o CANANI JULIO C +
BEJARANO R
+ GAINES CARLA
NAKATANI C S
o MANDELLA RICH +
BAZE M C
+ GUILLOT ERIC
o PENDER MICHAE +
ROSARIO JOEL
o SISE CLIFFORD J +
0
Ź
2
+ EURTON PETER o
+ MACHOWSKY M ++
>
COURT J K
o SHERMAN ART
ALMEIDA G F
o MILLINGTON BRINNARD
BEJARANO R
+ WALSH KATHY
+
DELGADILLO A
o STRONG BRIAN
-
ARIAS SAUL
-
TALAMO JOSEPH
+ ANDERSON ERIN --
VALDIVIA J JR
o GUTIERREZ JOR o
>
>
>
3
Ź
Ź
5
Ź
>
7
>
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
+/-
o SISE CLIFFORD J +
BEJARANO R
+ DRYSDALE NEIL o
SOLIS A
+ MCANALLY RON -
ESPINOZA V
+ CECIL B D A
VERGARA D P
+ PEARSON MOLL +
...
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
NAKATANI C S
o GREELY C BEAU -
PEDROZA M A
o MATHIS ANDY
150
..
+
135
+/- Trainer
+/-
o PENDER MICHAE +
Ź
TALAMO JOSEPH
+ KORINER BRIAN +
...
140
145
150
155
..
QUINONEZ ALONSO o SHERLOCK GAR o
>
Ź
ATKINSON P
-
GARCIA MARTIN
o GLATT MARK
ASSINESI PAUL
-
RODRIGUEZ N L
-- GREEN JENNY C +
o
JOHN K
-
ESPINOZA V
+ MONTELEONE F +
BREUER DENISE -
VALDIVIA J JR
o ELLIS RONALD W++
>
MARTINEZ CAMPOS + MARTIN SERGIO
149
Ź
>
GARCIA MATT
-
138
7.0 Fur
>
Ź
DELGADILLO A
o MITCHELL MIKE ++
4
4
1
1
LEVINE PETER
130
135
140
145
PACE PALS for EVERY North American Thoroughbred & Quarter Horse Race Track
Now available at
WWW.PACEPALS.COM
..
+
PEDROZA M A
Ź
+ DOLLASE CRAIG ++
ROSARIO JOEL
Ź
>
Ź
+/- Trainer
3
>
160
WALLACE JERRY -
110
Jockey
155
++
2
BAZE T C
150
o
BAZE M C
>
..
o MARTINEZ SILVE --
BAZE T C
Ź
Ź
...
>
Ź
>
Ź
Ź
+/-
o BELLASIS R P
Jockey
>
+/- Trainer
LINARES M G
Ź
1
145
ENRIQUEZ I D
Ź
o
NAVARRO V G
Ź
...
++
>
o
++
2
8
PEDROZA M A
Ź
Ź
1
7
o MACHOWSKY M ++
>
115
100%
Line
GARCIA MARTIN
Ź
Ź
Ź
Ź
5.5 Fur
Pace Pals
Rating
151
Morning
Line
+/-
+ JONES MARTIN F +
Jockey
o
8
9
10
16
Ź
TALAMO JOSEPH
1
0
4
1
1
*
+/-
EL DON
4
8
+/- Trainer
8
scr
6
--
7
Jockey
scr
1a
2
3
6
Alw Opt Clm 80000
150
155
Betting suggestions for Wednesday May 7, 2008 Hollywood Park.
**Please check numbers with official program before wagering.
1st 8-7-2
Like the outside boxes in these 7 furlong sprints so will lean to Devil Maker who drops out of a better race in which he ran vs. the
shape with the winner rallying from WAY back. The race has proven live with Exuma returning to win as well. Hold This was 2-1
when dropped in for 40k last out and showed some speed routing and now shortens to one corner and finds a relatively empty
field. These are lightly raced sorts though and improvement likely for more than a few, but the two morning line favorites BOTH
exit weaker statebred races so perhaps there is an edge fading or taking a stand against Star Nicholas and Free UP Grade? Start
a valuable pick four. 2,7,8 with 2,3 with 1,4,10,12 with 6.
2nd 2-3-5
Think we have identified a live horse that figures to be a big price in Mikey Bones. The barn had a big Anita meeting, and uses this
rider on well meant horses. This horse had some trouble in his last and fits a sneaky, winning pattern. Company Secret had
trouble at the break in her most recent, and might be right up on the pace today at 7 furlongs, she too will be a price and is worth
including on all tickets. Warren's Alohamoon has had a couple of preps since the layoff and may sneak into the trifecta at a giant
number. This gamble is more about not trusting the favorite than anything else. Queen of the Derby ran big at 23-1 off the short
break for a low percentage outfit, she figures to have company today at the longer slower paced distance of 7 panels, while
getting UNDERLAY status at about 5/2? Your supposed to bet this type a week and a half ago at 23-1, not today.
Biggest win bet we have suggested in a while at anything over 9/2 on Mikey Bones. We would push hard for a big pick
three wager. 2,3 with 1,4,10,12 with 6.
Very likely a signer so definitely play separate $1 tickets in case it is close, but play it a few times as this is a very good
gamble.
3rd 4-1-12-10
This race is likely a spread as there are many questions to be answered. Does not appear to be much speed in here at first
glance, but there are a few stretching out so it will be interesting to see how it sets up. Like the looks of the dropper E Bee Girl,
they take off the blinkers looking for improvement. She is 0-10 but has run well vs. better than these and gets a live rider in Cory
Nakatani. Tripped the Light figures to run better routing and gets the perfect post to gun to the lead. She did not break all that well
last out and looks like a good one to include on all pick bets. Think you could say this race is extra playable due to the presence of
Topaz Moon who figures to take money, even though she has NOT given the indication she can route. She ran in place in her last
and shortened stride late. FADE! We used a couple from the same April 20 route race that was run at a very slow pace, closers
had zero chance and this player thinks California Demon and or Go Round N Circles should both be used somewhere somehow
at 50 bagillion to one. Start another pick three here. 1,4,10,12 with 6 with 4,5. Pound away as the single is rock solid.
4th 6-4-5
There figures to be enough pace to set up a finisher and Blue Torpedo appears to be sitting on a big effort with two sprint preps
under his belt. This is more of an osmosis play
(something in a nothing race) as most of these are either over matched (outside two) or just one run plodding closers that need
everything right to win. Rocky Road is the one we specifically want to fade as he was loose reined on the lead and offered NO
resistance when headed, and the connections drop him after only one prep? Additionally he does NOT figure to get an easy lead
with Monk, and Can't Stop Slew both up on the lead. Like the Torpedo to destroy these for an up and coming conditioner, and at a
nice price too. Hopefully we will be alive for a nice score in a pick bet, but if not, then bet him to win. Fire when ready!
5th 5-4-7
This is a very solid horse along with a good exacta partner at a price. Tropic Storm exits a live race in which he ran big in an effort
he might have needed. He figures to make the lead in a race that came up short on speed, and this is his home court. We have
tried Declans Moon a few times but think it might pay off to give him one last shot. He too trains right here and came off a similar
rest last year to post a giant number. The question is not how good is he, the question is will he fire today? Think by using both of
these you lock the race up for all pick bets.
6th 14-4-5
Not even sure if Warren's Operator gets to play or not, but he exits a super live heat and ran right into the teeth of a hot pace. The
race is forgiven in a flash as he is 10-1 on the morning line and has caught a rather empty field. Looks like plenty of speed signed
on though so hope he can settle a bit and then finish from the good outside box, assuming he does draw into the field. No clue if
he does not get in, maybe Russian Liquor off the bench as he took action in his debut last summer. The firster Tribal Deal might
be ready off so so works as the barn has popped a few times for these connections and the rider will be top ten if he stays healthy,
Joel Rosario has impressed this player to say the least.
Pick three 4,5,14 with 7,8 with 1,6,11.
7th 8-7-3
This is a fun race and we have a different take on what could be a good gambling opportunity. Looks like Soupy will make the lead
if Rosario wants it, but the 3-38 record has us a bit worried. This race will be decided by racing luck, and not by ability as these are
VERY evenly matched. Repertoire likes this course and could get away at a much bigger price than the morning line indicates but
you have to wait for the prices and go from there. Everybody except the Turf Paradise shipper has a legit shot to win this with the
right trip including Two Trails, the CO-longest price on the line at 20-1. We put him on top because we give him about a 6 or 8%
chance to win this, meaning ABOUT 12-1 would be fair value. He will be lurking behind the "win machine?" Soupy on a very soft
pace at 25 or 30-1 and may only have to run the last bit of this mile and a half marathon if they go as slow as we think they will
early. Good trifecta swing for a buck or two. 7,8 with 7,8 with all. Then 8 with 7 with all, and 8 with all with 7. Win bet on
Two Trails.
8th 11-6-1
Not a ton of interest in the nightcap as the crowd not likely to be fooled. There is ZERO speed behind Arroyo Trabuco and he may
clear off at 7 furlongs. Maybe Quiet Period can stay close, but his route speed may not translate at this distance. Wait to see what
the crowd does and go from there. Keep an eye on Summer Survivor, he is 15-1 on the line and worked a best of morning :46 and
change the other day. The connections drop off the claim and yet have the big work for all to see? Watch his stride late as his last
effort was a tricky read, did not appear to be going all that well, but have been fooled by this type before and might again, this barn
pops first off the claim at an amazing 43%!! Hello!!
Good Luck today, make some money.
Jeff Munson

Introduction to handicapping with Pace Pals How to use Pace Pals

Transcription

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