  Mapletree Logistics Trust

Transcription


Global Research
22 October 2014
Mapletree Logistics Trust
Equities
Falling occupancies point to structural challenges
Singapore
Real Estate
Rental disruptions due to SUA-MTB conversions in Singapore
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported Q2FY15 distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.88¢
(-1.1% QoQ), slightly below our estimate. Despite increased overseas earnings from
recently acquired assets in Korea and Malaysia, overall net property income (NPI) was
pulled down by poorer Singapore performance, leading to a 0.4% QoQ dip in NPI. This
was mainly due to rental disruptions from the conversion of two single-user assets
(SUA) into multi-tenanted buildings (MTB). Both of the previous single-user tenants
relocated to their own newly completed facilities, leading to a 1.1ppt QoQ dip in
Singapore occupancy to 95.1%.
Falling occupancies symptomatic of structural challenges
We had viewed demand for logistics assets as more resilient than conventional
manufacturing-type industrial assets, but a rising supply of warehouses in western
Singapore and recent regulatory changes have heightened pressure on rents and
occupancies. For example, management shared that it was unable to accommodate
several prospective tenants because they did not qualify as anchor tenants under new
JTC regulations. Rental reversions have also slowed to +9% this quarter compared to
an average of +17% in the past 8 quarters.
Guidance lowered; further headwinds expected in the near term
About 31% of SUAs are due for renewal/conversion to MTBs over the next 18 months
and management sees downside risk to occupancies during this transition period.
Based on previous conversions, newly converted MTB assets typically take 9-15 months
to stabilize and reach previous yields, and we think this could lead to earnings
weakness in the interim.
Neutral
12-month rating
Prior: Buy
12m price target
S$1.23
Prior: S$1.28
Price
S$1.20
RIC: MAPL.SI BBG: MLT SP
Trading data and key metrics
52-wk range
Market cap.
S$1.20-0.99
S$2.94bn/US$2.31bn
Shares o/s
2,449m (ORD)
Free float
59%
Avg. daily volume ('000)
2,884
Avg. daily value (m)
S$3.4
Common s/h equity (03/15E)
S$2.49bn
P/BV (03/15E)
1.2x
EPS (UBS, diluted) (S$)
From
To
0.08
0.07
03/15E
0.08
0.07
03/16E
0.08
0.08
03/17E
% ch
-2.33
-2.10
-1.66
Cons.
0.08
0.08
0.08
Robin Xie
Analyst
robin.xie@ubs.com
+65-6495 2708
Valuation: Downgrading to Neutral; lowering PT to S$1.23
Year-to-date, MLT has risen 13.7%, making it the top-performing industrial SREIT.
While we continue to like MLT's overseas growth potential, fresh concerns over
downtime in the Singapore portfolio could put pressure on near-term share price
performance. We are trimming our estimates by 1-3% and reducing our DCF-derived
PT to S$1.23 from S$1.28. Given the limited upside potential, we are downgrading our
rating to Neutral from Buy.
Michael Lim
Analyst
michael-h.lim@ubs.com
+65-6495 5902
Highlights (S$m)
Net rental income
EBITDA
EPS (UBS, S$)
DPS (S$)
BVPS (basic, S$)
NAV per share (UBS, S$)
03/12
239
208
0.06
0.07
0.90
0.90
03/13
268
235
0.07
0.07
0.92
0.92
03/14
268
235
0.07
0.07
0.97
0.97
03/15E
284
249
0.07
0.08
1.01
1.01
03/16E
293
258
0.07
0.08
1.03
-
03/17E
307
270
0.08
0.08
1.05
-
03/18E
317
280
0.08
0.08
1.07
-
03/19E
322
284
0.08
0.08
1.08
-
Profitability/valuation
PE (UBS)
EPS (UBS) yield %
Net dividend yield %
Prem/(disc) to BVPS %
Prem/(disc) to NAV ps %
EV/EBITDA (UBS) x
03/12
15.1
6.6
7.5
(0.4)
(0.4)
17.5
03/13
16.0
6.2
6.3
17.4
17.7
17.3
03/14
15.9
6.3
6.7
13.5
13.5
17.7
03/15E
16.3
6.1
6.3
18.4
19.0
17.9
03/16E
16.1
6.2
6.3
16.6
17.4
03/17E
15.3
6.5
6.5
14.4
17.7
03/18E
14.8
6.8
6.7
12.5
17.1
03/19E
14.6
6.8
6.8
10.7
16.9
Source: Company accounts, Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a
share price of S$1.20 on 21 Oct 2014 22:38 HKT
www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 198500648C). ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED
DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 10. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Investment Thesis
12-month rating
Neutral
12m price target
S$1.23
Investment case
Business description
We like MLT for its geographic diversification, logistics exposure
and long lease structure. Organic demand for logistics space is
generally healthy across overseas markets where MLT operates,
although Singapore is facing a challenging leasing environment.
We see growth potential through capital recycling, the
redevelopment of older assets and acquisitions. We believe
management is increasing its focus on high-growth countries
such as China and Korea, where entry NPI yields are in an
attractive range of 7-8%, giving a decent spread of 200-300bps
over the hedged debt cost of 4-5%. However, near-term growth
concerns in Singapore could put pressure on share price
performance. The valuation looks fair in our view and we have a
Neutral rating.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) is an externally managed REIT.
The manager is Mapletree Investments, a 100% owned
subsidiary of Temasek Holdings. MLT's key investment focus
are logistics properties in Asia. It aims to grow its asset base
through yield-accretive acquisitions and to provide investors
with a sustainable yield and organic growth from its portfolio.
It was listed in July 2005 with S$422m in assets. As of October
2014, its portfolio comprised 115 properties with a book value
of S$4.4bn, spread across Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan,
China, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam.
Upside scenario
We believe MLT is actively on the lookout for acquisitions in
markets such as China and Korea, which can be funded by debt,
cash or divestment of mature assets. Assuming MLT can acquire
S$200m of assets per year (vs. the FY10-FY14 average of
~S$266m/year) at a 250bp spread over its funding cost, our
implied upside valuation would be S$1.37. Stronger leasing
interest would also improve MLT's ability to raise rents
organically.
Industry outlook
Demand for the logistics space in Singapore is seeing signs of
pressure due to rising supply and tighter regulatory restrictions
on the use of industrial space. In Japan, strong leasing
enquiries continue from 3PLs, retailers and manufacturers.
Demand for quality warehouse space is tight, as reflected in
low vacancy rates. In Hong Kong, limited new supply over the
next 2-3 years is likely to put upward pressure on rents. In
Korea, SME tenants are becoming more cautious, although
demand from chaebols (which control a large proportion of
logistic activities) remains firm.
Net property income by region (Q2FY15)
Downside scenario
If MLT fails to acquire any additional assets and property
expenses outpace rental growth, while yields expand towards the
+1x standard deviation level of 7.8%, our downside valuation
would be S$0.98. Rising interest rates and unfavourable FX
movements are additional risks that could diminish the
attractiveness of MLT as a yield instrument.
Malaysia
China 6%
5%
Vietnam
0.4%
South Korea
10%
Singapore
43%
Upcoming catalysts
Potential positive catalysts include: 1) yield-accretive acquisitions,
both from the sponsor pipeline and externally; 2) a pick-up in
demand for logistics space, driven by improving global trading
conditions and growth of e-commerce across Asia-Pacific; and 3)
compression of cap rates.
Hong Kong
15%
Japan
21%
Source: Company data, UBS
EBIT by product segment
All of MLT's operating income is derived from renting and
managing logistics properties.
Robin Xie, Analyst, robin.xie@ubs.com, +65-6495 2708
Mapletree Logistics Trust 22 October 2014
 2
Q2FY15 results summary
Figure 1: Key financials (S$ m)
Sep-13
Jun-14
Sep-14
Q2FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
QoQ
YoY
66.6
69.0
68.7
-0.4%
3.1%
0.1
0.2
0.2
nm
nm
66.7
69.2
68.9
-0.4%
3.3%
Total management fees
7.7
8.0
8.1
0.8%
5.2%
Interest expense
7.3
7.7
8.0
3.6%
9.4%
Net property income
Interest income
Total income
Trustee's fees
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.3%
3.2%
Trust expenses / (income)
1.3
1.0
0.9
nm
nm
Forex losses / (gains)
50.3
52.2
51.8
-0.9%
2.9%
Net investment income
(3.2)
(2.9)
(3.1)
nm
nm
Less: Tax
47.2
49.4
48.7
-1.3%
3.3%
NPAT (core)
5.6
0.9
4.2
nm
nm
Other inc / (exp)
1.0
(7.8)
3.2
nm
nm
53.8
42.5
56.1
nm
nm
Total return (reported)
Distribution paid
44.5
46.6
46.3
-0.7%
4.0%
DPU ¢ / unit
1.82
1.90
1.88
-1.1%
3.3%
Q2FY15 DPU of 1.88¢ (-1.1% QoQ)
was in slightly below our
estimate
Sequential dip in earnings due to SUA-MTB conversions in Singapore.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported Q2FY15 distribution per unit (DPU) of
1.88¢ (-1.1% QoQ), slightly below our estimate. Despite higher overseas earnings
from recently acquired assets in Korea and Malaysia, overall NPI fell 0.4% QoQ due
to weakness in the Singapore portfolio (Figure 2).
The weakness was due mainly to rental disruptions caused by the conversion of
two single-user assets (SUA) into multi-tenanted buildings (MTB), at 31 Penjuru
Lane and 25 Pandan Crescent. We believe both of the previous single-user tenants
relocated to their own newly completed facilities, leading to a sequential 1.1ppt
dip in MLT's Singapore occupancy to 95.1% (Figure 3) and a 5.6% QoQ decline in
Singapore net property income (NPI).
Figure 2: Country level NPI
Jun-14
Sep-14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
QoQ
Singapore
31,160
29,412
-5.6%
Affected by SUA-MTB conversions
Japan
14,720
14,364
-2.4%
NPI affected by FX, but offset by hedges
Hong Kong
10,378
10,573
1.9%
South Korea
6,149
6,995
13.8%
Lifted by acquisition of Daehwa Logistics
China
3,260
3,140
-3.7%
Higher O&M and fire insurance costs
Malaysia
3,014
3,899
29.4%
Lifted by acquisition of Flex Hub
Vietnam
285
279
-2.1%
68,966
68,662
-0.4%
NPI
Total
Comments
Sequential growth from newly
acquired assets in Korea and
Malaysia was offset by lower
occupancies in Singapore due to
SUA-MTB conversions
 3
Falling occupancies symptomatic of structural challenges. Management
hopes to bring occupancies at the aforementioned assets back to 100% by March
2015 (currently: ~40%), although we think this will be challenging. We had
viewed demand for logistics assets as more resilient than conventional industrial
assets, but a rising supply of warehouses in western Singapore and recent
regulatory changes have heightened pressure on rents and occupancies.
For example, anchor tenants must now have a minimum occupation period of 3
years (previously: no minimum) and can only sublet, at most, 30% of the building
(down from a cap of 50%). As a result, management shared that it was unable to
accommodate several prospective tenants because they did not qualify as anchor
tenants. Conversely, larger tenants who qualify as anchors have increased their
bargaining power, contributing to lower rental reversion of +9% this quarter,
compared to the average of +17% in the past 8 quarters (Figure 4).
Figure 3: Country occupancy breakdown
Figure 4: Rental reversion trend
100%
30%
99%
25%
98%
20%
97%
96%
15%
Source: Company data
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Sep-14
Dec-12
0%
Sep-12
Jun-14
5%
Jun-12
97.6%
97.2%
Portfolio
Japan
Singapore
93%
10%
Mar-12
100.0%
100.0%
Vietnam
99.9%
99.1%
China
100.0%
100.0%
95.1%
98.1%
S.Korea
Malaysia
99.9%
99.8%
Hong Kong
100.0%
100.0%
94%
96.2%
95.1%
95%
Guidance lowered; further weakness expected. SUAs currently form 55% of
MLT's portfolio by revenue, ~31% of which are due for renewal/conversion over
the next 18 months (mostly in Singapore). Management expects further downside
risk to occupancies during this transition period. Based on previous conversions,
newly converted MTB assets typically take 9-15 months to stabilize and reach
previous yields, potentially leading to near-term DPU volatility.
Figure 5: Lease expiry profile (by NLA, Sep-14)
Figure 6: Debt maturity profile – total S$1,473m
38.5%
40%
25%
21%
35%
30%
18.5%
25%
21.5%
20%
15%
10%
5%
20%
20%
19.7%
15%
12.3%
10%
18%
13%
9.3%
11.7%
7.0%
6.3%
12.2%
7.4%
5.4%
0%
FY15
FY16
FY17
MTB
3.7%
8%
6%
20.0%
7%
7%
FY21
FY22
5%
1.6%
3.3%
FY18
Single user
FY19
>FY19
0%
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
 4
Capital management
FX hedges. To mitigate the outcome of a weaker Yen, management has hedged
~80% of its Yen-denominated income over the next 3 years at an estimated
SGDJPY rate in the range of 71 to 76. We believe this should largely mitigate
MLT's near-term DPU impact from Yen weakness. UBS economists expect the Yen
to continue weakening against the S$ over the next year to SGDJPY=88.5 (from
~84 currently).
Overseas growth could offset domestic weakness
Four additions to the acquisition pipeline. Three assets in China and one in
Iskandar Malaysia, totalling 324,300 sqm GFA, were added to the sponsor pipeline
this quarter (Figure 7). We think the increase in pipeline assets would contribute to
MLT's mid-term growth, although the assets are unlikely to be acquired in the next
2-3 years, as the land tenders for these developments were only recently awarded.
Purchase of China assets from the pipeline. MLT recently completed the debtfunded acquisition of Mapletree Zhengzhou and Yangshan from its sponsor for
S$83.9m. Management expects the assets to generate an initial NPI yield of 7.58.0%, providing a decent spread of 250-300bps over the hedged borrowing cost
of ~5%. All-in, the deal is positive at the margin and adds ~1% to our DPU
estimates. Medium term, other assets that could be acquired include Mapletree
Tianjin Airport and Mapletree Bac Ninh, valued at around S$20-40m each.
Figure 7: Mapletree Investments' logistics projects in Asia
No
Location
Project
GFA (sqm)
1
Tianjin
Mapletree Tianjin Airport Logistics Park
2
Tianjin
Mapletree Tianjin Port HaiFeng Bonded Logistics Park
3
Tianjin
Mapletree Tianjin Wuqing Logistics Park**
30,100
4
Wuxi
Mapletree Wuxi New District Logistics Park
5
Chongqing
Mapletree Chongqing Jiangjin Industrial Park
6
Xi'an
7
Xi'an
8
Completion status
Committed occupancies
66,500
Completed
40%
194,100
Completed
>90%
Awarded land tender
-
124,200
Ground breaking in Mar-14
-
47,600
Ground breaking in Aug-14
-
Mapletree Fengdong Logistics Park Phase 1
44,000
Awarded land tender
-
Mapletree Fengdong Logistics Park Phase 2
75,000
Awarded land tender
-
Hunan
Mapletree Changsha High-Tech Logistics Park
79,800
Awarded land tender
-
9
Jiangsu
Mapletree Nantong NCEDZ Logistics Park**
78,000
Awarded land tender
-
10
Zhejiang
Mapletree Hangzhou Xiaoshan Logistics Park**
96,200
Awarded land tender
-
Ground breaking in Mar-14
-
China sub-total
11
Hong Kong
835,500
Mapletree Logistics Park Tsing Yi
Hong Kong sub-total
85,000
85,000
11
Kanagawa
Odawara Centre
12
Ibaraki
Joso Centre
Japan sub-total
205,500
Completed
100% (BTS)
27,200
Completed
100% (BTS)
232,700
13
Iskandar, Johor
Mapletree Logistics Park - Tanjung Pelepas**
14
Selangor
Mapletree Shah Alam Logistics Park
Malaysia sub-total
120,000
60,000
Awarded land tender
Completed
>90%
180,000
14
Bin Duong
Mapletree Logistics Park (Binh Duong)
440,000
Ph.1&2 completed
15
Bac Ninh
Mapletree Bac Ninh Logistics Park
310,000
Ph.1 completed
Vietnam sub-total
Grand total
~80% (Ph.1&2)
100% (Ph.1)
750,000
2,083,200
** Denotes new additions to the list this quarter. Source: Company data, UBS
 5
Earnings and valuation
Figure 8: Forward price to book (x)
Figure 9: Forward yield (%)
10
2.00
1.75
9
1.50
8
1.25
1.00
7
0.75
6
0.50
5
0.25
Avg
Yield
Source: UBS estimates
Avg
+Stdev
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-06
Aug-06
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
PBV
Aug-05
4
0.00
-Stdev
Downgrading to Neutral from Buy (PT: S$1.23). Year-to-date, the MLT share
price has risen 13.7%, making it the top performing industrial SREIT share. While
we continue to like MLT's capital recycling and overseas growth potential, we
believe fresh concerns over downtime in the Singapore portfolio could put
pressure on share price performance in the near term.
We are trimming our estimates by 1-3% and reducing our price target to S$1.23
from S$1.28. Our DCF-derived PT assumes a risk-free rate of 2.6% and 8.6% cost
of equity. Given the limited upside, we are downgrading our rating to Neutral
from Buy.
Figure 10: Revisions to estimates
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
All-in EPU previous
7.54
7.62
7.96
8.07
All-in EPU new
7.35
7.50
7.83
7.99
-2.6%
-1.7%
-1.6%
-1.0%
7.63
7.64
7.95
8.06
% change
DPU previous
DPU new
% change
7.55
7.52
7.85
8.02
-1.0%
-1.6%
-1.2%
-0.6%
 6
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI)
Income statement (S$m)
Net rental income
Investment income
Trading income
Associates and other income
Total income
Interest payable
Admin and other
Revenue surplus / recurring income
Interest capitalised
Depreciation & amortisation
Pre-exceptional provisions
Profit before tax (UBS)
Exceptionals
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Minorities
Preference dividends
Extraordinary items (post-tax)
Net earnings (local GAAP)
Tax rate (UBS) (%)
EBITDA
EBIT
03/12
239
1
0
0
240
(37)
(31)
172
0
0
0
172
10
182
(26)
156
(2)
(1)
0
154
15.0
208
208
03/13
268
1
0
0
269
(39)
(33)
198
0
0
0
198
19
216
(14)
202
(1)
(19)
0
182
7.1
235
235
03/14
268
1
0
0
268
(29)
(33)
206
0
0
0
206
18
224
(17)
207
(1)
(19)
0
187
8.3
235
235
03/15E
284
1
0
0
284
(32)
(35)
218
0
0
0
218
0
217
(17)
200
(1)
(19)
0
181
7.9
249
249
% ch
Per share (S$)
EPS (UBS)
Net DPS (S$)
BVPS (basic)
NAV per share
Cash EPS (UBS)
Average shares
03/12
0.06
0.07
0.90
0.90
0.06
2,426
03/13
0.07
0.07
0.92
0.92
0.07
2,426
03/14
0.07
0.07
0.97
0.97
0.07
2,439
03/15E
0.07
0.08
1.01
1.01
0.07
2,461
% ch
Balance sheet (S$m)
Investment properties (book value)
Development properties (book value)
Other fixed assets
Total fixed assets (book value)
Trading properties (book value)
Cash & deposits
Other current assets
Total assets (book value)
Debt
Other liabilities
Preference shares
Minority interests
Shareholders equity / NTA
Surpluses over book value (UBS)
S/h equity / NTA (basic)
S/h equity / NTA (diluted)
03/12
4,058
0
21
4,079
0
168
26
4,273
(1,495)
(240)
(344)
(7)
2,186
0
2,186
2,186
03/13
4,050
0
40
4,090
0
135
12
4,237
(1,434)
(221)
(344)
(6)
2,232
0
2,232
2,232
03/14
4,235
0
31
4,267
0
114
16
4,397
(1,455)
(209)
(344)
(6)
2,382
0
2,382
2,382
03/15E
4,483
0
28
4,510
0
119
16
4,645
(1,592)
(209)
(344)
(6)
2,493
0
2,493
2,493
% ch
Cash flow (S$m)
EBIT
Depreciation & amortisation
Net change in working capital
Net interest
Tax paid
Other (operating)
Operating cash flow
Net (acquisitions) / capex
Dividends paid
Share issues / (buybacks)
Net other cash flows
Cash flow (inc)/dec in net debt
Net (debt) / cash
03/12
208
0
0
(36)
(26)
0
146
(293)
(162)
0
0
(309)
(1,327)
03/13
235
0
0
(38)
(14)
0
183
(197)
(166)
0
0
(180)
(1,299)
03/14
235
0
0
(29)
(17)
0
189
(101)
(180)
0
0
(92)
(1,341)
03/15E
249
0
0
(31)
(17)
0
201
(158)
(184)
0
0
(141)
(1,473)
% ch
6.0
0.0
-
6.0
-8.5
-5.8
5.7
5.7
0.0
-
5.7
-
-2.9
-1.0
-3.2
-8.2
0.00
-
-3.6
-4.5
6.1
6.1
5.9
2.7
4.2
3.7
5.9
0.9
5.8
-12.1
5.7
4.1
-2.7
5.6
-9.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.69
-
4.69
4.7
6.1
0.0
-8.7
-1.0
-
6.1
-56.5
-2.3
-
-54.1
-9.82
03/16E
293
1
0
0
294
(36)
(35)
222
0
0
0
222
0
222
(18)
205
(1)
(19)
0
185
7.9
258
258
% ch
03/16E
0.07
0.08
1.03
0.07
2,482
% ch
03/16E
4,554
0
28
4,582
0
119
16
4,717
(1,601)
(209)
(344)
(6)
2,556
0
2,556
2,556
% ch
03/16E
258
0
0
(35)
(18)
0
205
(9)
(186)
0
0
10
(1,482)
% ch
3.2
0.0
-
3.2
-12.9
-2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
-
2.0
-
2.2
-2.0
2.3
0.0
0.00
-
2.5
0.0
3.4
3.4
1.3
-0.3
1.6
1.3
0.9
1.6
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
1.5
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.49
-
2.49
2.5
3.4
0.0
-13.1
-2.0
-
2.0
94.3
-1.1
-
-0.66
03/17E
307
1
0
0
307
(38)
(36)
233
0
0
0
233
0
233
(18)
215
(1)
(19)
0
196
7.7
270
270
03/18E
317
1
0
0
318
(38)
(37)
243
0
0
0
243
0
243
(18)
225
(1)
(19)
0
205
7.5
280
280
03/19E
322
1
0
0
322
(38)
(38)
246
0
0
0
246
0
246
(19)
228
(1)
(19)
0
208
7.6
284
284
03/17E
0.08
0.08
1.05
0.08
2,502
03/18E
0.08
0.08
1.07
0.08
2,522
03/19E
0.08
0.08
1.08
0.08
2,542
03/17E
4,634
0
28
4,662
0
119
16
4,797
(1,611)
(209)
(344)
(6)
2,626
0
2,626
2,626
03/18E
4,709
0
28
4,737
0
119
16
4,871
(1,621)
(209)
(344)
(6)
2,690
0
2,690
2,690
03/19E
4,785
0
28
4,813
0
119
16
4,948
(1,631)
(209)
(344)
(6)
2,756
0
2,756
2,756
03/17E
270
0
0
(37)
(18)
0
215
(9)
(196)
0
0
10
(1,492)
03/18E
280
0
0
(37)
(18)
0
225
(9)
(206)
0
0
10
(1,502)
03/19E
284
0
0
(38)
(19)
0
228
(10)
(209)
0
0
9
(1,512)
Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.
 7
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI)
Valuation
PE (UBS) x
EV/EBIT (core) x
EV/EBITDA (core) x
P/CEPS (UBS) x
CEPS yield (UBS) %
Net dividend yield %
Net property yield %
BVPS (basic, S$)
NAV per share (S$)
Prem/(disc) to BVPS %
Prem/(disc) to NAV per share %
03/12
15.1
17.5
17.5
15.1
6.6
7.5
6.8
0.90
0.90
(0.4)
(0.4)
03/13
16.0
17.3
17.3
16.0
6.2
6.3
6.8
0.92
0.92
17.4
17.7
03/14
15.9
17.7
17.7
15.9
6.3
6.7
6.8
0.97
0.97
13.5
13.5
03/15E
16.3
17.9
17.9
16.3
6.1
6.3
6.8
1.01
1.01
18.4
19.0
03/16E
16.1
17.4
17.4
16.1
6.2
6.3
6.8
1.03
16.6
-
03/17E
15.3
17.7
17.7
15.3
6.5
6.5
7.7
1.05
14.4
-
03/18E
14.8
17.1
17.1
14.8
6.8
6.7
7.8
1.07
12.5
-
03/19E
14.6
16.9
16.9
14.6
6.8
6.8
7.8
1.08
10.7
-
Enterprise value (S$m)
Market cap.
Net debt (cash)
Buy out of minorities
Pension obligations/other
Total enterprise value
Non core assets
Core enterprise value
03/12
2,178
1,457
0
0
3,635
0
3,635
03/13
2,621
1,442
0
0
4,064
0
4,064
03/14
2,686
1,463
0
0
4,149
0
4,149
03/15E
2,938
1,529
0
0
4,468
0
4,468
03/16E
2,938
1,534
0
0
4,472
0
4,472
03/17E
2,938
1,831
6
0
4,776
0
4,776
03/18E
2,938
1,841
6
0
4,786
0
4,786
03/19E
2,938
1,846
6
0
4,791
0
4,791
Growth (%)
Recurring income (UBS, pre-tax)
CEPS (UBS)
BVPS (basic)
NAV per share
EBITDA (core)
DPS
03/12
0.5
(11.1)
4.9
4.7
1.3
2.4
03/13
14.8
13.6
2.1
1.8
13.3
2.4
03/14
4.4
3.1
5.7
6.0
(0.2)
7.4
03/15E
5.7
5.9
4.2
3.7
6.1
2.7
03/16E
2.0
1.3
1.6
3.4
(0.3)
03/17E
4.9
4.8
1.9
4.9
4.3
03/18E
4.1
3.9
1.7
3.6
2.1
03/19E
1.5
0.8
1.6
1.4
2.2
Profitability
ROE %
Interest cover x
Dividend cover x
Cash earnings (UBS) dividend cover x
03/12
6.7
5.7
0.9
0.9
03/13
7.4
6.1
1.1
1.0
03/14
7.4
8.0
1.0
0.9
03/15E
7.4
7.8
1.0
1.0
03/16E
7.3
7.2
1.0
1.0
03/17E
7.6
7.2
1.0
1.0
03/18E
7.7
7.4
1.0
1.0
03/19E
7.6
7.4
1.0
1.0
Productivity (%)
Pre-exceptional tax rate
Net debt/revalued net assets
Net debt/(revalued gross assets-cash)
Net debt/EV
EBITDA/interest expense x
Net debt/EBITDA x
03/12
15.0
52
32
36.5
5.7
6.4
03/13
7.1
50
32
32.0
6.1
5.5
03/14
8.3
49
31
32.3
8.0
5.7
03/15E
7.9
52
33
33.0
7.8
5.9
03/16E
7.9
51
32
33.1
7.2
5.8
03/17E
7.7
50
32
31.2
7.2
5.5
03/18E
7.5
50
32
31.4
7.4
5.4
03/19E
7.6
49
31
31.6
7.4
5.3
Investment properties by location %
Japan
Asia (including Australia)
Europe
North America
South America
Other
Total
03/12
1
99
0
0
0
0
100
03/13
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
03/14
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
03/15E
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
03/16E
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
03/17E
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
03/18E
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
03/19E
25
75
0
0
0
0
100
Investment properties by sector %
Offices
Retail
Industrials
Hotels
Other
Total commercial
Residential
Total
03/12
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/13
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/14
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/15E
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/16E
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/17E
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/18E
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
03/19E
0
0
100
0
0
100
0
100
Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.
 8
Forecast returns
Forecast price appreciation
Forecast dividend yield
Forecast stock return
Market return assumption
Forecast excess return
+2.5%
6.3%
+8.8%
7.4%
+1.4%
Statement of Risk
Risks include those associated with operating in the real estate investment/
management environment, as well as risks associated with the regulatory, planning
and capital-raising environment. Valuation risks include the changing Rf rate under
CAPM analysis.
 9
Required Disclosures
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and
affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its research product; historical
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Analyst Certification: Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in
part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed
accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner,
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the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions
12-Month Rating
Definition
Coverage1
IB Services2
Buy
FSR is > 6% above the MRA.
47%
34%
Neutral
FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.
42%
28%
Sell
FSR is > 6% below the MRA.
11%
21%
Short-Term Rating
Definition
Coverage3
IB Services4
Buy
Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time
the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.
less than 1%
less than 1%
Sell
Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time
the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.
less than 1%
less than 1%
Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 30 September 2014.
1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within
the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category. 4:Percentage of companies
within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
KEY DEFINITIONS: Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend
yield over the next 12 months. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate
plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR
by the analyst, indicating that the stock's price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term, usually
in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Short-Term Ratings reflect the expected nearterm (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment
case. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.
EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES: UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive
on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure,
management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance
record, discount. Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the
Investment Review Committee (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stock's volatility and the credit spread of the
respective company's debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands
as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the
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Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not
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any, follows.
UBS Securities Pte. Ltd.: Robin Xie; Michael Lim.
 10
Company Disclosures
Company Name
Reuters
12-month rating
Short-term rating
Price
Price date
MAPL.SI
Neutral
N/A
S$1.20
22 Oct 2014
Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close.
Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock
pricing date
Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (S$)
Stock Price (S$)
Price Target (S$)
1.50
1.00
0.50
01-Oct-14
01-Jul-14
01-Apr-14
01-Jan-14
01-Oct-13
01-Jul-13
01-Apr-13
01-Jan-13
01-Oct-12
01-Jul-12
01-Apr-12
01-Jan-12
01-Oct-11
01-Jul-11
01-Apr-11
01-Jan-11
01-Oct-10
01-Jul-10
01-Apr-10
01-Jan-10
01-Oct-09
0.00
Buy
Source: UBS; as of 22 Oct 2014
 11
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 12
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  Mapletree Logistics Trust

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