PTT Global Chemical Buy
Transcription
PTT Global Chemical Buy
Company Update, 7 November 2014 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) Buy (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Downstream Products Market Cap: USD8,207m Target Price: Price: THB70.70 THB59.80 Macro Risks 3Q14 Net Profit Rises 25% QoQ Growth Value PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 84.0 118 79.0 108 74.0 98 69.0 88 64.0 78 59.0 68 54.0 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 58 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) PTT Plc. Thai NVDR HSBC (Singapore) Nominees PTE LTD 612m/19.0m 27.1 18.4 56.8 - 80.0 51 4,509 48.9 7.2 2.8 Absolute Relative YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m (24.4) 3.0 (8.8) (14.3) (24.6) (34.5) (45.9) Major commodity prices and spreads moved in line with our expectations. Refined product spreads were mixed, as fuel oil and jet spreads improved, while all refineries under our coverage recorded stock losses as crude oil prices dipped in 3Q14. Olefins and polymer spreads improved on higher product prices and lower feedstock costs. Meanwhile, aromatics spreads also improved over the past quarter with paraxylene (PX) prices having bottomed out in 2Q14. 3Q14 net profit came in at THB7.5bn (+25% QoQ, -21% YoY), in line with our expectations. PTT Global Chemical’s (PTTGC) refinery ran at a 102% utilization rate. It booked a stock loss of USD2.92/barrel (bbl), with hedging gains of USD0.70/bbl and a gross refining margin of USD3.83/bbl. Its polyethylene plants ran at a 104% utilization rate, while olefins spreads improved over the past quarter. Meanwhile, the company’s aromatics plants ran at a 83% utilization rate, with PX spreads rebounding from their lows in 2Q14 and benzene spreads remaining strong. Note that in 2Q14, PTTGC recognized an impairment loss of THB2.2bn as a result of business restructuring. 4Q14F outlook: olefins spreads at 2-year high. We expect its core earnings to be healthy in 4Q14. However, whether PTTGC will report further stock losses/gains will depend on the closing price of crude oil at the end of the year. We expect its plants to run at full capacity in the final quarter of the year. The latest commodity prices indicate that polymer spreads are now at 2-year highs. This is a result of lower feedstock prices – crude oil (USD83.99/bbl, -17% QoQ), condensate (USD724/ton, -17% QoQ) and naphtha (-21% QoQ) – while product prices have so far remained stable and strong. Forecasts and Valuations Share Performance (%) 0.8 (12.4) (26.6) Shariah compliant Kannika Siamwalla, CFA 66 2862 9744 kannika.si@rhbgroup.com Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F 500,305 565,617 552,881 527,437 539,554 Reported net profit (THBm) 30,033 34,001 33,277 27,304 36,191 Recurring net profit (THBm) 30,033 34,001 33,277 29,242 36,191 Recurring net profit growth (%) 84.0 13.2 (2.1) (12.1) 23.8 Recurring EPS (THB) 6.65 7.54 7.38 6.49 8.03 DPS (THB) 2.33 3.40 3.33 2.73 3.62 Recurring P/E (x) 8.98 7.93 8.10 9.21 7.44 P/B (x) 1.36 1.21 1.13 1.13 1.04 P/CF (x) 9.76 5.33 7.29 4.95 4.79 3.9 5.7 5.6 4.6 6.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.23 6.59 6.20 6.01 5.03 Return on average equity (%) 14.3 16.2 14.4 11.4 14.5 Net debt to equity (%) 46.8 32.3 32.2 37.5 27.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total turnover (THBm) Dividend Yield (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 3 0 . 1 0 0 . 2 0 0 PTTGC booked 3Q14 earnings of THB7.5bn (+25% QoQ, -21% YoY), and . 0 a THB2.8bn stock loss. Major commodity spreads moved in line with 0 our expectations, and olefins and aromatics spreads improved in 3Q. 0 PTTGC is now trading at distressed levels (-2SD from its forward 1.1x P/BV) but is still attractive vis-a-vis the regional peer average, as it has a much lower P/E, and higher ROE and ROA – even though its P/BV is slightly higher. BUY, with a THB70.70 TP (1.2x 2015 P/BV,18.4% upside). Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Powered by EFATM Platform 1 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) 7 November 2014 Figure 1: 3Q14/9M14 results review FYE Dec (THBm) 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 % QoQ % YoY 9M13 9M14 % YoY FY14F % of FY14F 142,311 153,282 146,676 -4 3 397,268 447,324 13 527,437 85 11,723 8,578 8,932 4 -24 31,473 24,973 -21 40,846 61 8% 6% 6% 23% 17% Net interest (1,144) (1,303) (1,364) 5 19 (3,769) (4,099) 9 (5,570) 74 Pretax profit 10,357 7,274 7,839 8 -24 27,358 21,370 -22 35,276 61 7% 5% 5% 20% 14% (1,419) (1,493) -1% -22% Turnover EBIT EBIT margin (%) Pretax margin (%) Taxation (708) (599) (521) -7% -8% -8% Associate income (54) 290 240 -17 -547 (93) 770 -926 (1,500) (51) 9,610 6,086 7,591 25 -21 26,088 19,972 -23 27,304 73 7% 4% 5% 19% 13% 2.13 1.35 1.68 5.79 4.43 Net margin (%) EPS (THB) 25 -26 7% Tax rate (%) Net profit -13 8% -21 5 (4,233) 35 -12% 5% -23 6.05 73 Source: RHB Figure 2: Crude oil price (USD/bbl) Figure 3: Refined product spreads Source: Bloomberg Source: PTTGC See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) 7 November 2014 Figure 4: PTTGC’s forward P/BV band Source: Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) 7 November 2014 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover 500,305 565,617 552,881 527,437 539,554 Cost of sales (453,385) (516,497) (500,673) (475,839) (480,900) Gross profit 46,920 49,120 52,208 51,597 58,654 Gen & admin expenses (9,125) (12,005) (14,031) (10,752) (10,994) Operating profit 37,795 37,116 38,177 40,846 47,660 Operating EBITDA 51,403 53,930 54,914 58,781 66,385 (13,608) (16,815) (16,737) (17,935) (18,724) 37,795 37,116 38,177 40,846 47,660 (1,500) (1,500) Depreciation of fixed assets Operating EBIT Net income from investments Other recurring income - (44) (78) Dec-15F 3,180 4,292 4,124 - - Interest expense (5,575) (6,320) (6,084) (5,570) (4,829) Exchange gains (724) - (1,322) - - - - (2,239) - Pre-tax profit 34,676 35,865 34,817 31,537 41,331 Taxation (3,102) (1,416) (1,976) (4,233) (5,140) Minority interests (1,541) (448) Profit after tax & minorities 30,033 34,001 Reported net profit 30,033 Recurring net profit 30,033 Cash flow (THBm) Operating profit Depreciation & amortisation Exceptional income - net 821 436 - - 33,277 27,304 36,191 34,001 33,277 27,304 36,191 34,001 33,277 29,242 36,191 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F 37,795 37,116 38,177 40,846 47,660 13,608 16,815 16,737 17,935 18,724 (15,087) 4,337 (9,908) 5,411 Operating cash flow 36,316 58,267 45,006 64,191 66,218 Interest paid (5,575) (6,320) (6,084) (5,570) (4,829) Tax paid (3,102) (1,416) (1,976) (4,233) (5,140) Cash flow from operations 27,639 50,531 36,946 54,388 56,249 Capex 34,936 (25,036) (6,966) (37,528) (18,360) Source: Company data, RHB Change in working capital Other new investments Other investing cash flow Cash flow from investing activities (106) 754 (51) 369 (167) (101) 9,468 (13,774) (12,481) (13,139) (5,499) 44,298 (38,056) (19,498) (50,297) (23,960) Dividends paid (10,512) (10,512) (15,332) (14,975) (12,287) Proceeds from issue of shares (52,153) 120 Increase in debt (10,610) 9,391 Other financing cash flow (13,480) (1) 5,076 (13,531) - - - (73,275) (1,001) (28,812) (9,900) (25,818) Cash at beginning of period 21,035 18,973 31,269 18,582 10,534 Total cash generated (1,338) 11,475 (11,365) (5,809) 6,471 (724) 821 (1,322) - - 18,582 12,773 17,005 Cash flow from financing activities Forex effects Implied cash at end of period 18,973 31,269 (0) 0 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) 7 November 2014 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total cash and equivalents 22,606 60,062 44,384 36,336 42,806 Inventories 36,145 41,047 50,238 50,238 50,238 Accounts receivable 42,027 55,406 61,592 49,959 51,107 Other current assets 4,459 4,377 4,301 4,777 4,886 105,236 160,891 160,514 141,309 149,037 Total current assets Total investments Tangible fixed assets Total other assets 6,505 7,978 14,029 14,475 14,475 255,758 262,479 253,054 272,201 271,837 5,468 4,714 4,765 4,396 4,497 Total non-current assets 267,730 275,171 271,848 291,072 290,809 Total assets 372,966 436,062 432,363 432,381 439,846 Short-term debt 22,064 16,404 27,564 24,400 19,269 Accounts payable 30,331 50,813 53,455 47,469 48,560 7,674 2,427 2,188 2,427 2,427 Total current liabilities 60,068 69,645 83,207 74,296 70,256 Total long-term debt 98,102 120,452 95,812 104,052 95,652 6,343 7,920 8,110 8,110 8,110 Total non-current liabilities 104,445 128,372 103,922 112,162 103,762 Total liabilities 164,513 198,017 187,129 186,458 174,018 45,108 45,088 45,088 45,088 45,088 116,556 140,366 156,436 157,126 177,031 Other current liabilities Other liabilities Share capital Retained earnings reserve Other reserves Shareholders' equity Minority interests 36,839 36,978 36,978 36,978 36,978 198,503 222,433 238,503 239,192 259,097 9,950 15,612 6,731 6,731 6,731 Total equity 208,454 238,045 245,234 245,923 265,828 Total liabilities & equity 372,966 436,062 432,363 432,381 439,846 Dec-15F Source: Company data, RHB Key Ratios (THB) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Revenue growth (%) 33.3 13.1 (2.3) (4.6) 2.3 Operating profit growth (%) 82.4 (1.8) 2.9 7.0 16.7 Net profit growth (%) 84.0 13.2 (2.1) (18.0) 32.6 EPS growth (%) 84.2 13.3 (2.1) (18.0) 32.6 (10.5) 12.1 7.2 0.3 8.3 Operating margin (%) 7.6 6.6 6.9 7.7 8.8 Net profit margin (%) 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.2 6.7 Return on average assets (%) 7.7 8.4 7.7 6.3 8.3 Return on average equity (%) 14.3 16.2 14.4 11.4 14.5 Net debt to equity (%) 46.8 32.3 32.2 37.5 27.1 DPS 2.33 3.40 3.33 2.73 3.62 6.1 11.2 8.2 12.1 12.5 Bv per share growth (%) Recurrent cash flow per share Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 5 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) 7 November 2014 SWOT Analysis As the company is PTT’s flagship petrochemical business, any deals in the future could be given to it Changes in the landscape of the oil and gas industry could have huge implications on the company’s earnings Growth potential will be in the region The company is in a commodity-based business, which can imply highly volatile earnings P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE 69% 1 14% 12 53% 1 11% 10 38% 1 9% 8 22% 1 7% -9% 0 5% 2 -24% 0 2% 0 -40% 0 0% 6 7% P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) Source: Company data, RHB Jan-15 Jan-14 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 4 P/B (x) (lhs) Jan-15 16% 14 Jan-14 18% 1 Jan-13 2 84% Jan-12 100% 16 Jan-11 18 Return on average equity (rhs) Source: Company data, RHB Company Profile PTT Global Chemical has a total olefins and aromatics production capacity of 8.45m tonnes per annum, with 280,000 barrels per day of petroleum production capacity. It was listed on the stock exchange of Thailand on Oct 2011, as a result of the amalgamation of PTT Chemical and PTT Aromatics and Refining. See important disclosures at the end of this report 6 PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB) 7 November 2014 Recommendation Chart Price Close 70.7 83.1 83.4 89.8 82.1 82.1 68.2 80.0 68.5 Recommendations & Target Price na 85.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 Buy 50.0 Oct-11 Neutral Aug-12 Sell Trading Buy May-13 Take Profit Not Rated Feb-14 Source: RHB, Bloomberg Date Recommendation 2014-10-22 Buy Target Price Price 70.7 59.0 2014-04-23 Buy 83.1 70.5 2014-02-26 Buy 83.4 73.5 2014-02-19 Buy 83.4 72.5 2013-10-22 Buy 89.8 77.5 2013-07-03 Buy 82.1 68.5 2013-05-20 Neutral 82.1 76.0 2013-05-20 Sell 60.2 76.0 2013-04-10 Neutral 82.1 68.0 2012-11-16 Buy 68.5 60.0 Source : RHB, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 7 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. 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No. 200808705N) 9 Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2014 Excellent ADVANC AOT ASIMAR BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BCP BECL BKI BROOK BTS CIMB CK CPF CPN CSL DRT DTAC EASTW EGCO ERW GRAMMY HANA HEMRAJ ICC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KKP KTB LPN MCOT MINT NKI NOBLE PAP PG PHOL PR PRANDA PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QH RATCH ROBINS RS S&J SAMART SAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SCSMG SE-ED SIM SIS SITHAI SNC SPALI SPI SSI SSSC SVI SYMC TCAP THAI THCOM THRE TIP TASCO TKT TMB TNITY TOP TRC TRUE TTW TVO UV VGI WACOAL Very Good 2S ACAP AF AHC AIT AKP AMANAH AMARIN AMATA AP APCO APCS ASIA ASK ASP AYUD BEC BFIT BH BIGC BJC BLA BMCL BWG CCET CENTEL CFRESH CGS CHOW CM CNT CPALL CSC DCC DELTA DTC ECL EE EIC ESSO FE FORTH GBX GC GFPT GL GLOW GOLD GSTEL GUNKUL HMPRO HTC IFEC INET ITD JAS JUBILE KBS KCE KGI KKC KSL KWC L&E LANNA LH LHBANK LHK LIVE LOXLEY LRH LST MACO MAJOR MAKRO MBK MBKET MFC MFEC MODERN MTI NBC NCH NINE NMG NSI NWR OCC OFM OGC OISHI PB PDI PE PF PJW PM PPM PPP PREB PRG PT PYLON QTC RASA SABINA SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIRI SKR SMT SNP SPCG SPPT SSF STANLY STEC SUC SUSCO SYNTEC TASCO TCP TF TFD TFI THANA THANI THIP TICON TIPCO TK TLUXE TMILL TMT TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TPIPL TRT TRU TSC TSTE TSTH TTA TBSP TCCC TEAM TGCI TIC TIES TIW TKS TMC TMD TMI TNDT TNPC TOPP TPA TPP TR TTI TVD TVI TWZ UBIS UEC UOBKH UPF UWC VARO VTE WAVE WG TTCL zZMICO TUF TWFP TYM UAC UMI UMS UP UPOIC UT VIBHA VIH VNG VNT YUASA *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012 Good A AAV AEC AEONTS AFC AGE AH AI AJ AKR ALUCON ANAN ARIP AS BAT-3K BCH BEAUTY BGI BLAND BOL BROCK BSBM CHARAN CHUO CI CIG CITY CMR CNS CPL CRANE CSP CSR CTW DEMCO DNA DRACO EA EARTH EASON EMC EPCO F&D FNS FOCUS FPI FSS GENCO GFM GJS GLOBAL HFT HTECH HYDRO IFS IHL ILINK INOX IRC IRPC IT JMART JMT JTS JUTHA KASET KC KCAR KDH KTC KWH LALIN LEE MATCH MATI MBAX MDX PRINC MJD MK MOONG MPIC MSC NC NIPPON NNCL NTV OSK PAE PATO PICO PL POST PRECHA PRIN Q-CON QLT RCI RCL ROJNA RPC SCBLIF SCP SENA SF SGP SIMAT SLC SMIT SMK SOLAR SPC SPG SRICHA SSC STA SUPER SVOA SWC SYNEX WIN WORK *** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012. Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD) IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเปิดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ ดาเนินการตามนโยบายของสานักงานคณะกรรมการกากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการสารวจของ IOD เป็นการสารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผลู้ งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสารวจ ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนาเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสารวจจึงอาจ เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้ นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด