OUE Hospitality Trust Neutral Potential Competition From Hotel Jen

Results Review, 4 November 2014
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
Neutral
Property - REITS
Market Cap: USD930m
Target Price:
Price:
SGD0.94
SGD0.91
Macro
Risks
Potential Competition From Hotel Jen
Growth
Value
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
Price Close
Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS)
0.96
108
0.94
106
0.92
105
0.90
103
0.88
101
0.86
99
0.84
98
0.82
96
0.80
25
94
0
0
.2
0
0
We assume coverage on OUEHT with a NEUTRAL rating and a TP of .
0
SGD0.94 (CoE: 8.0%, TG: 1.5%), implying a total return of 9.0%. 0
OUEHT’s 3Q14/9M14 DPU of 1.64/4.96 cents was in line with our 0
estimates. We remain cautious on the impending headwinds facing the
tourism industry. We see the new opening of Hotel Jen Orchardgateway
(formerly Traders Hotel) as a potential competitor to Mandarin Orchard
Singapore.

20

15
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
5
Nov-13
Vol m
10
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (SGD/USD)
1.14m/0.91m
Cons. Upside (%)
4.4
Upside (%)
3.9
52-wk Price low/high (SGD)

0.83 - 0.94
Free float (%)
57
Share outstanding (m)
1,319
Shareholders (%)
OUE Realty Pte Ltd
40.5
Golden Concord Asia Ltd
1.5
Hennessy Holdings Ltd
1.3
Share Performance (%)
Absolute
Relative

9M14 results in line at 73.4% of our forecast. OUE Hospitality Trust
(OUEHT) posted a 0.3% YoY increase in 3Q14 DPU to 1.64 cents,
underpinned by stronger hotel operating performance by Mandarin
Orchard Singapore (MOS). Revenue per available room (RevPAR) for
Mandarin Orchard Singapore (MOS) in 3Q14 inched up to SGD252
(3Q13: SGD249) as management continues to target corporate
customers, shifting away from its less profitable wholesale customers.
Newly-launched Hotel Jen Orchardgateway could potentially affect
DPU in FY15. The 502-room Hotel Jen Orchardgateway (approximately
380m away from MOS), opened on 15 Sep with an introductory room
rate of SGD250 per night. The opening of Hotel Jen is likely to have a
direct impact on MOS’ RevPAR in the near term, pressuring MOS to
lower its room rates to maintain its current occupancy level. In addition,
the ongoing refurbishment of MOS (current: 160/430 rooms), which is
scheduled to be completed by end-2015, will continue to impact the
hotel’s performance.
Mandarin Gallery (MG) continues to provide resilient income.
Occupancy in the upscale shopping mall MG remained unchanged at
99.7%, with an effective rent at SGD23.90 psf/month (3Q14: SGD23.70
psf/month). Two leases, accounting for 2.4% of total net lettable area
(NLA) were renewed in 3Q14, with a weighted average rental reversion
of 4.7% (2Q14: +33.0%). We see a potential upside to rental reversion in
FY15 as 44% of its gross rent will expire next year.
Assume coverage with NEUTRAL. We remain cautious on the
unfavourable demand and supply dynamics of the tourism industry. We
assume coverage on OUEHT with a NEUTRAL recommendation and a
TP of SGD0.94, with a FY15F yield of 6.8%.
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
3.4
(0.6)
1.1
4.0
2.8
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
2.7
Total turnover (SGDm)
51
117
114
122
Net property income (SGDm)
45
103
100
108
Reported net profit (SGDm)
76.1
86.1
83.6
90.4
Total distributable income (SGDm)
38.2
90.1
83.2
90.2
DPS (SGD)
0.03
0.07
0.06
0.07
DPS growth (%)
nm
134.0
(8.4)
7.5
Recurring P/E (x)
15.6
13.8
14.4
13.4
P/B (x)
1.3
0.7
4.7
4.9
Shariah compliant
Ivan Looi +65 6232 3841
ivan.looi@sg.oskgroup.com


2

.
2
0
.
2




0.98
0.97
0.97
0.96
Singapore Research +65 6232 3845
Dividend Yield (%)
3.2
7.5
6.8
7.4
research@sg.oskgroup.com
Return on average equity (%)
6.6
7.1
6.8
7.2
Return on average assets (%)
4.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
4.01
6.37
6.20
6.68
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interest coverage ratio (x)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
See important disclosures at the end of this report
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1
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
4 November 2014
Results Review
Figure 1: OUEHT's 3Q14 results summary
3Q13
(25 Jul-30
Sep)
2Q14
3Q14
%QoQ
%YoY
Comment
Gross revenue
21.6
28.3
28.5
0.8
31.8
Increased YoY due to a shorter financial period
in 3Q13.
Operating expenses
(2.4)
(3.1)
(3.2)
(0.3)
(0.2)
NPI
19.3
25.2
25.4
0.5
31.5
REIT mgr's base mgmt fees
(1.0)
(1.3)
(1.4)
1.1
33.6
REIT mgr's performance fees
(0.8)
(1.0)
(1.0)
0.5
31.7
REIT trustee's fees
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.1)
20.6
60.8
Other trust expenses
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(1.4)
45.0
Net income before financing cost & tax
17.2
22.4
22.5
0.4
31.1
Interest income
0.0
0.4
0.3
(24.1)
nm
Borrowing costs
(6.6)
(3.7)
(3.7)
1.0
(44.0)
EBT
10.6
19.2
19.1
(0.2)
81.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
Gains from revaluation
51.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
Gains from derivatives
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
Total return before tax
61.6
19.2
19.1
(0.2)
(68.9)
(SGD m)
Gains from property divestments
Tax
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
61.6
19.2
19.1
(0.2)
(68.9)
Total return (ex exceptionals)
10.6
19.2
19.1
(0.2)
81.1
Add-back: Non tax deductibles
(45.3)
2.5
2.6
6.1
nm
Income available for unitholders
16.3
21.6
21.7
0.5
33.6
Distributable income - unitholders
16.3
21.6
21.7
0.5
33.6
Number of units (end of period) ('m)
1,311
1,319
1,321
0.2
0.8
DPU (SGD-cts)
1.24
1.64
1.64
0.0
0.3
DPU (SGD-cts) (excl. inc. retained)
1.24
1.64
1.64
0.0
0.3
Unitholders funds per share (SGD)
0.91
0.90
0.90
0.0
(1.1)
Payout ratio (%)
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0 ppt
0.0 ppt
NPI margins (%)
89.1
89.2
88.9
(0.2) ppt
(0.2) ppt
Total return - reported
Increased YoY due to a shorter financial period
in 3Q13. NPI margins for both quarters
maintained at 89%.
Lower YoY due to the changes in the fair value of
the ineffective portion of the cash flow hedge.
Increased due to a higher NPI and lower net
finance expense.
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
4 November 2014
Figure 2: OUEHT's 9M14 results summary
(SGDm)
9M14
DMG FY14F
% of FY14F
Gross revenue
85.5
116.6
73.4
Operating expenses
(9.3)
(13.6)
68.5
NPI
76.2
103.0
74.0
REIT mgr's base mgmt fees
(4.1)
(5.5)
73.0
REIT mgr's performance fees
(3.0)
(4.1)
74.0
REIT trustee's fees
(0.2)
(0.3)
78.6
Other trust expenses
(1.1)
0.0
nm
Net income before financing cost & tax
67.8
93.0
72.9
Interest income
1.1
0.0
nm
Borrowing costs
(11.0)
(14.6)
75.5
EBT
57.9
78.5
73.8
Gains from property divestments
0.0
0.0
nm
Gains from revaluation
0.0
17.6
nm
Gains from derivatives
0.0
0.0
nm
Total return before tax
57.9
96.0
60.3
Tax
0.0
0.0
nm
Total return - reported
57.9
96.0
60.3
Total return (ex exceptionals)
57.9
78.5
73.8
7.5
(5.9)
nm
65.4
90.1
72.6
Add-back: Non tax deductibles
Income available for unitholders
Distributable income - unitholders
65.4
90.1
72.6
Number of units (end of period) ('m)
1,321
1,321
100.0
DPU (SGD-cts)
4.96
6.82
72.7
DPU (SGD-cts) (excl. inc. retained)
4.96
6.82
72.7
Unitholders funds per share (SGD)
0.90
0.93
96.8
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
Figure 3: OUEHT's TP based on dividend discount model
FY13
DPU (SGD cts)
2.90
Fair value (SGD)
0.94
Current price (SGD)
FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
6.82
6.25
6.72
6.83
6.93
7.01
7.08
Terminal
value
98.72
0.915
Price upside (%)
2.2
Distribution yield (%)
6.8
Total return (%)
9.0
Assumptions
Risk-free rate (%)
2.5
Beta
1.0
Cost of equity (%)
8.0
Terminal growth (%)
1.50
Source: OSK-DMG
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
4 November 2014
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (SGDm)
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Total turnover
51
117
114
122
Property operating expenses
(6)
(14)
(14)
(14)
Net property income
45
103
100
108
Management fees
(4)
(10)
(10)
(10)
Trust expenses
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
Operating EBIT
41
93
90
97
Operating EBITDA
41
93
90
97
Net income from investments
51
18
18
18
Other recurring income
(5)
(10)
(10)
(10)
Interest income
0
0
0
0
Interest expense
(10)
(15)
(15)
(15)
Pre-tax profit
76
86
84
90
Profit after tax & minorities
76
86
84
90
Reported net profit
76
86
84
90
(38)
4
(0)
(0)
38
90
83
90
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
41
93
90
97
9
11
0
(0)
Other operating cash flow
(7)
(5)
(5)
(5)
Operating cash flow
43
99
86
93
Adjustment for distributable income
Total distributable income
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
Cash flow (SGDm)
Operating profit
Change in working capital
Interest received
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
Interest paid
10
15
15
15
53
114
100
107
-
-
-
Cash flow from operations
Other new investments
(1,149)
Other investing cash flow
0
0
(1,149)
0
0
0
Dividends paid
-
(90)
(83)
(90)
Proceeds from issue of shares
600
-
-
-
Increase in debt
587
-
-
-
Other financing cash flow
(31)
(19)
(13)
(13)
1,156
(109)
(96)
(103)
-
69
Cash flow from investing activities
Cash flow from financing activities
Cash at beginning of period
0
0
61
65
Total cash generated
61
4
4
4
Implied cash at end of period
61
65
69
74
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
4 November 2014
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (SGDm)
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Total cash and equivalents
61
65
69
74
Accounts receivable
17
10
9
10
1
1
1
78
75
79
84
Total investments
1,756
1,774
1,791
1,809
Total non-current assets
1,756
1,774
1,791
1,809
Total assets
1,834
1,849
1,871
1,893
Accounts payable
8
11
11
12
Other current liabilities
1
1
1
1
Total current liabilities
9
12
12
13
581
583
585
586
32
26
26
26
613
610
611
613
Other current assets
Total current assets
Total long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
-
623
622
623
625
Share capital
1,212
1,227
1,247
1,268
Shareholders' equity
1,212
1,227
1,247
1,268
Total equity
1,212
1,227
1,247
1,268
Total liabilities & equity
1,834
1,849
1,871
1,893
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
Key Ratios (SGD)
Dec-13
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Revenue growth (%)
nm
130.3
(2.1)
6.9
Net profit growth (%)
nm
13.1
(2.9)
8.1
EPS growth (%)
nm
12.6
(3.6)
7.3
Bv per share growth (%)
nm
0.5
0.8
0.8
Net profit margin (%)
nm
73.9
73.3
74.1
Return on average assets (%)
4.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
Return on average equity (%)
6.6
7.1
6.8
7.2
Net debt to equity (%)
43.0
42.2
41.3
40.4
DPS
0.03
0.07
0.06
0.07
Recurrent cash flow per share
0.04
0.09
0.08
0.08
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
4 November 2014
SWOT Analysis
 Backed by a reputable and long-established sponsor
(OUE)
 New opening of
Hotel Jen
Orchardgateway
 Strategically-located assets
 One-off events
that may crimp
hospitality
sector growth
such as SARS,
Ebola and
financial crisis
 Fixed rent helps to reduce revenue risks
 Rising number of
medical tourists given
its presence in the
Orchard Road
medical cluster
 Increased
meetings,
incentives,
conferences and
exhibitions (MICE)
travellers given
Singapore’s growing
profile as a global
MICE destination of
choice
 Increased patronage
from corporate and
transient customers
 Highly dependent on tourist money
 Short remaining land lease
 Income and asset concentration risks
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
15
7%
1
7%
14
4%
1
7%
14
2%
1
7%
13
-1%
1
7%
13
-4%
1
7%
12
-6%
1
7%
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-16
7%
Jan-15
1
Jan-14
9%
Jan-13
7%
15
Jan-12
1
Jan-16
12%
Jan-15
7%
16
Jan-14
1
Jan-13
14%
Jan-12
16
Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
Company Profile
OUEHT is a stapled group comprising H-REIT and HBT. H-REIT is a real estate investment trust that directly or indirectly invests in a
portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for hospitality and/or hospitality-related purposes, while HBT is a
business trust.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP)
4 November 2014
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.90
0.88
0.86
0.84
0.82
0.80
Jul-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Source: OSK-DMG, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
7
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading
Buy:
Share
may10%
exceed
over 12
themonths
next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Buy:
Share
price
mayprice
exceed
over15%
the next
Neutral: Buy:
ShareShare
price price
may fall
within
the 15%
rangeover
of +/the next
12 months
Trading
may
exceed
the10%
nextover
3 months,
however
longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Take Profit:
Target
been attained.
accumulate
lower
Neutral:
Share
priceprice
may has
fall within
the rangeLook
of +/-to10%
over theatnext
12 levels
months
Sell: Share
may
fall has
by more
10% over
next 12 months
Take
Profit:price
Target
price
beenthan
attained.
Look the
to accumulate
at lower levels
Not Rated:
Stockmay
is not
regular
coverage
Sell:
Share price
fallwithin
by more
thanresearch
10% over
the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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