Morning Matters - RHB OSK Securities (Thailand)

17-Feb-2015
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Morning Matters
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WHAT’S INSIDE
SET Intra-Day Graph
ON THE PLATTER
Source: Bloomberg
Key Market Indices (16 February 2015)
SET
SET50
SET100
Dow Jones
S&P500
Nasdaq
FTSE
FSSTI
Hang Seng
Nikkei
KLCI
SHANGHAI SE
JCI
SET
PE (x)
P/BV (x)
Yield (%)
Value
Chg
% Chg
% YTD
1608.04
1064.75
2367.42
18019.35
2096.99
4893.84
6857.05
3427.16
24726.53
17926.89
1808.89
3222.36
5325.50
-7.85
-6.27
-13.53
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%
UNCHG
UNCHG
UNCHG
UNCHG
UNCHG
UNCHG
-16.47
0.94
43.99
-114.83
7.94
18.54
-48.67
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
-0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
-0.9%
7.4%
6.4%
7.0%
1.1%
1.9%
3.3%
4.4%
1.8%
4.8%
2.7%
2.7%
-0.4%
1.9%
5-yr avg
2012
2013
2014F
15.7
2.1
3.3
18.5
2.3
2.8
15.6
2.1
2.9
13.6
2.0
3.3
Key Statistics
Economic Highlights : Growth Picks Up in 4Q But Momentum
Remains Weak, GDP Forecast Lowered To 3.4% For 2015
Thailand‟s real GDP growth picked up to 2.3% y-o-y in 4Q 2014, from
+0.6% in the 3Q and compared with +0.4% registered in 2Q. At the same
time, the 4Q GDP figure also came in above our forecast of +1.7% and the
consensus‟ median estimate of +2.0%. For the full-year of 2014, the Thai
economy registered the slowest growth in three years of 0.7%, slowing
from +2.9% in 2013. As government spending was slow to pick-up while
momentum of the private consumption and investment remained weak in
4Q, we are lowering our forecast for economic growth to 3.4% in 2015,
from 4.0% expected previously.
Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB;FVTHB31.50-Buy) :
FY14 Earnings Flat And In Line
As we expected, STEC booked FY14 earnings of THB1.52bn (+1.5% YoY)
as it continued to recognise revenues from MRT and gas power plant
projects. As such, we maintain BUY, with a TP of THB31.50 (21% upside).
We expect the Pink and Orange MRT Lines and one double-track project
(Jira junction-Khonkaen) totaling c.THB177bn, which will be up for bids in
1H15, to be major catalysts supporting its share price.
MEDIAS HIGHLIGHTS



NBTC urged to change fee system
NESDB argues for cut in policy rate to lower business costs
Digital TV hikes ad spending by 16%
SET Value by investor Type: Daily
Buy (THBm)
Sell (THBm)
Net (THBm)
3,836.73
3,453.88
382.85
Institution
3,525.97
3,912.96
-386.99
Proprietary
7,459.86
8,970.63
-1,510.78
Foreign
30,144.89
28,629.97
1,514.92
Retail
SET Value by investor Type
MTD (THBm)
YTD (THBm)
Institution
306.79
10,091.45
Proprietary
333.12
8,593.60
Foreign
6,189.16
1,889.28
Retail
-6,829.08
-20,574.34
SET50 Index Future
Long
Short
Net
MTD
YTD
Institution
13,279
12,952
327
6,316
-23,699
Foreign
8,325
6,765
1,560
-6,656
5,463
Local
26,486
28,373
Foreign Fund Flows (USDm)
Last
MTD
-46.4
189.6
-1,887
YTD
61.9
340
18,236
YOY
7,070.7
See important disclosures at the end of this report
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On The Platter
On The Platter
Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB;FVTHB198.00-Neutral) : Measured Optimism
On 2015 Outlook
Economic
: Growth
Pickstake
Up over
in 4Q
Momentum
Remains
Weak,
SCB‟s new Highlights
captains who
will officially
theBut
reins
from Apr 2015
are already
GDP
Forecast
Lowered
To
3.4%
For
2015
hard at work, mapping out the bank‟s core thrusts for 2015. Maintain NEUTRAL and
Thailand‟s
up to 2.3%
y-o-yof
in the
4Q 2014,
fromwould,
+0.6% in
in our
the
THB198.00real
TP GDP
(1% growth
upside).picked
Successful
execution
strategies
3Q
and
compared
with
+0.4%
registered
in
2Q.
At
the
same
time,
the
4Q
GDP
figure
view, sustain profitability growth. Management also unveiled its targets for 2015 that
also
came
in above
our stronger
forecast of
+1.7% growth
and theagainst
consensus‟
medianofestimate
of
broadly
point
to slightly
earnings
a backdrop
moderate
+2.0%.
For
the
full-year
of
2014,
the
Thai
economy
registered
the
slowest
growth
in
economic recovery.
three years of 0.7%, slowing from +2.9% in 2013. As government spending was slow
to pick-up
momentum
of the private consumption and investment remained
Veena
Naidu while
+66 2862
9752 (veena.na@rhbgroup.com)
weakLeong
in 4Q,+603
we 9207
are lowering
our forecast for economic growth to 3.4% in 2015, from
Fiona
7638 (fiona.leong@rhbgroup.com)
4.0% expected previously.
Economist: Vincent Loo Yeong Hong | +603 9280 2172
Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB;FVTHB31.50-Buy) : FY14
Earnings Flat And In Line
As we expected, STEC booked FY14 earnings of THB1.52bn (+1.5% YoY) as it
continued to recognise revenues from MRT and gas power plant projects. As such,
we maintain BUY, with a TP of THB31.50 (21% upside). We expect the Pink and
Orange MRT Lines and one double-track project (Jira junction-Khonkaen) totaling
c.THB177bn, which will be up for bids in 1H15, to be major catalysts supporting its
share price.
Analyst : Veena Naidu License No. 24418, +66 2862 9752 (veena.na@rhbgroup.com)
Chun Phokaisawan
Medias Highlights
NBTC urged to change fee system Digital TV operators have called on the
National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) to change the
collection of digital TV licence fees to a flat rate throughout the 15-year period. The
Radio and Television Broadcasting Professional Federation (RTBPF) yesterday
submitted a letter to the NBTC on behalf of digital TV operators. They also want to
delay the 2% payment to the universal service obligation fund. Meanwhile, the
regulator wants to update the second licence fee payment of 24 digital TV operators,
which is due in May, before making a decision. RTBPF president Chamnan Siritan
said digital TV operators wanted the flat-rate licence fee because they were affected
by the delay in the digital TV subsidy coupon distribution scheme and the lack of a
national campaign to build awareness among the public. The RTBPF also wants the
NBTC to consider extending the licence term to 20 years from 15 in order to
compensate for loss of opportunities caused by the delayed subsidy voucher
distribution. (Bangkok Post)
Recommendation: This is positive for digital TV operators. We rate Workpoint and
RS as BUY with BEC as SELL.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
2
NESDB argues for cut in policy rate to lower business costs THE NATIONAL
Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) believes that the policy interest
rate could be lowered to help cut business costs and support the current initial stage
of economic recovery. It also urged the Bank of Thailand to come up with measures
to mitigate the strength of the baht, which is deemed to be stronger than other
currencies in the region. The NESDB said the gross domestic product expanded by
2.3 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2014, after an increase of 0.6 per
cent in the third quarter. It expects that economic expansion in the first quarter of
2015 will be better than in the final quarter of last year. Overall, GDP on a quarter-toquarter basis increased by 1.7 per cent in the final three months of the year, after
seasonal adjustment, resulting in the actual GDP growth in 2014 of 0.7 per cent. The
NESDB has maintained that the economy will expand by 3.5-4.5 per cent this year
despite cutting its export-growth prediction for 2015 from 4 per cent to 3.5 per cent.
(The Nations)
Recommendation: RHB Economic team expects the BOT to keep interest rates
unchanged at the current level of 2.00% in 2015, as emerging financial markets face
headwinds following the end of US quantitative easing and an imminent interest rate
hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2015. However, there is a possibility of the BOT
cutting rates by 25 basis points in 1H 2015, should the economic recovery for 2015
come in weaker than anticipated.
Digital TV hikes ad spending by 16%
ADVERTISING expenditure in January was up 16 per cent year on year to Bt9.52
billion, mainly thanks to higher spending on digital TV, transit media and the Internet,
according to the latest report by Nielsen (Thailand). The findings show that
advertising spending in the analog, cable and satellite TV platforms had significantly
shifted to terrestrial-based digital television. Cable and satellite TV operators
suffered a huge combined drop in advertising revenue of 62.26 per cent - from Bt795
million to Bt300 million - in January year on year, while for the analog TV incumbents
the decline was 9.85 per cent (from Bt4.71 billion to Bt4.24 billion). The 24 digital TV
players registered a combined Bt2.51 billion in advertising revenue for the new
category. The results supported previous comments made by Wannee Ruttanaphon,
chairwoman of IPG Mediabrands and the Media Agency Association of Thailand, who
said the broadcasting industry would be changed by the birth of digital TV. Leading
entertainment firms and TV production houses obtained licences from the
broadcasting regulator to operate digital TV channels, resulting in quality
programmes being offered to attract viewers and advertisers. (The Nations)
Recommendation: The high percentage growth in January at 16.5% was come
from the new method of calculating the total advertising expenditure. This year,
Nielsen (Thailand) includes the advertising in Cable/Satellite TV (56 channels) and
Digital TV (21 Channels) which making total advertising expenditure improved. We
expect digital TV will be the key driver of total advertising expenditure during 2015.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
Outperform
AMATA
IVL
PTT
PTTEP
SIRI
STEC
WHA
Current
Target
Upside/
Rec.
Price
Price
Downside
PE (x)
Yield (%)
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Trading Buy
(Bt)
18.40
25.25
362.00
116.50
2.00
25.50
34.75
(Bt)
21.00
29.90
384.97
142.61
2.60
31.50
38.00
(%)
14.1
18.4
6.3
22.4
30.0
23.5
9.4
2014F
8.1
4.8
15.6
149.3
23.1
3.6
22.3
2014F
0.6
0.3
13.0
7.0
0.2
0.6
0.1
Top 10 Ranking
Top 10 Most Active Value
Symbol AOM Value ('000 Baht)
SCC
1,894,768
SUPER
1,601,317
TPIPL
1,420,998
ITD
1,359,557
JASIF
1,241,108
SENA
1,097,411
TRC
1,050,534
ADVANC
1,002,661
PTT
979,089
IFEC
892,543
Top 10 Most Active Volume
Symbol AOM Value (Shares)
NPARK
802,469,400
TPIPL
479,582,300
IEC
355,268,800
SENA
263,116,000
SIRI
241,618,700
BMCL
191,868,900
GEL
179,140,000
TGPRO
145,127,800
ITD
144,045,400
MILL
141,342,200
Last
510
21.90
2.94
9.45
9.70
4.12
11.20
243.00
362.00
18.20
Last
0.05
2.94
0.05
4.12
2
2.04
1.11
0.49
9.45
1.89
Change(%)
+12.00 (+2.41%)
+1.30 (+6.31%)
-0.02 (-0.68%)
+0.10 (+1.07%)
-0.30 (-3.00%)
+0.26 (+6.74%)
-0.40 (-3.45%)
-5.00 (-2.02%)
-7.00 (-1.90%)
+0.80 (+4.60%)
Top 10 Gainers
Symbol
AOM Value (Shares)
PPP
84,490,000
CPH
5,722,800
GJS
25,523,600
GL
20,666,400
SAWANG
3,200
SPACK
19,491,700
MCOT
7,841,300
SGP
20,635,000
GSTEL
50,047,900
METCO
44,500
Last
8.6
15.40
0.06
7.70
16.70
3.40
18.80
12.70
0.14
230.00
Change(%)
+1.80 (+26.47%)
+2.60 (+20.31%)
+0.01 (+20.00%)
+0.90 (+13.24%)
+1.60 (+10.60%)
+0.32 (+10.39%)
+1.70 (+9.94%)
+1.10 (+9.48%)
+0.01 (+7.69%)
+16.00 (+7.48%)
Change(%)
- (-)
-0.02 (-0.68%)
- (-)
+0.26 (+6.74%)
- (-)
+0.02 (+0.99%)
- (-)
+0.02 (+4.26%)
+0.10 (+1.07%)
-0.03 (-1.56%)
Top 10 Losers
Symbol
AOM Value (Shares)
WIIK
8,943,100
INSURE
600
TCOAT
2,600
TLUXE
8,954,200
DTCI
1,100
TPP
167,200
TSTE
19,100
TU-PF
12,300
SAMTEL
2,910,700
ASIAN
2,237,000
Last
3.96
34.50
22.10
11.70
38.00
40.00
19.50
2.12
25.75
3.84
Change(%)
-0.64 (-13.91%)
-5.50 (-13.75%)
-3.15 (-12.48%)
-1.20 (-9.30%)
-3.25 (-7.88%)
-3.25 (-7.51%)
-1.50 (-7.14%)
-0.16 (-7.02%)
-1.75 (-6.36%)
-0.26 (-6.34%)
Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Recent Stories
To access the report, please click on the following link:
Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction : FY14 Earnings Flat And In Line
Airports of Thailand : Earnings Could Have Been Better
Total Access Communications : Light At The End Of The Tunnel
Who Is Buying Into The Thai Market?
Advanced Info Services : Chugging Along
Higher Offtake Of Natural Gas To Malaysia
Sriracha Construction : Attractive Valuation With Strong Fundamentals
Thai Stanley Electric : Pessimistic View From Management
Supalai PCL : High Exposure To a Slow Upcountry Market
4Q Current Account Recorded Largest Surplus In Five Years
PTT : BCP Divestment Moves Forward
January Prices Deflate For The First Time In Five Years
Money Supply And Private Credit Trended Lower In 2014
Glow Energy : 2014 Earnings Jump, In Line With Expectation
End Of A Cycle, Not The End Of Hydrocarbons
TISCO Financial Group PCL : Modest Recovery in Underlying Operations
VGI Global Media : Weak 3QFY15 Results During The High Season
Manufacturing Output Inching Closer To Stabilisation
Bangkok Dusit Medical : Expanding To 50 Hospitals By 2017
BOT Kept Rate Unchanged At 2.00% For Seventh Straight Meeting
Exports Recovered Slightly In December, But Still Resulted In A Contraction For 2014
Quality Houses : Reaffirms Healthy 2015 Guidance
TRUE Corp : Waiting For A Stronger Tone
Pruksa Real Estate : Unexciting 2015 Target And Earnings Outlook
4Q14 – What a Quarter!
Leaving The Worst Year Behind
Telecommunications : Staying Connected – Jan 2015
Krung Thai Bank : 4Q14 Dampened By Higher Provisions And Opex
LPN Dev : Best Earnings Growth Estimate Despite Lower Guidance
Bangkok Bank : Asset Quality Stable While NIM Slipped In 4Q14
Kasikornbank : Opex Hike Overshadows NIM Improvement
Land and Houses : Better Margins, Divestment Gains Key Catalysts For 2015
Siam Commercial Bank : 4Q14 Impacted By Higher Opex And Provisions
Thailand Aviation - Be Selective In Picking Winners
Ananda Development (ANAN TBFVTHB4.20-Buy) : Second-Highest Condo Presales In 2014
Attractive Opportunities Amidst Volatility
Asia Aviation : Aggressive Expansion Ahead
Airports of Thailand : Take Profit On Steep Valuation
Nok Airlines : Not The Best But Yields The Highest Upside Returns
Thai Airways : Turnaround In Play
Going For „Seconds‟
Presales Dip In 2014 But Set To Grow c.10% YoY In 2015
PTT : LPG Price Adjustment Positive For PTT
PTT Global Chemical : Minimal Impact From LPG Price Adjustment
Bangkok Bank : Ending 2014 On a Stronger Note
Kasikornbank : Guiding For Healthy 4Q14 Performance
The Ten Tycoons
Krung Thai Bank : Expect Slight Beat Of 4Q14 Earnings Estimate
Thailand Research Team
Veena Naidu
Directo
veena.na@rhbgroup.com
+662 862- 752
Wanida Geisler
Senior Vice President
Head of Resea ch
wanida.ge@rhbgroup.com
+662 862-9748
Kannika Siamwalla, CFA
Head of Regional Oil & Gas
kannika.si@rhbgroup.com
+662 862-9744
Chun Phokaisawan
Senior Associate Research
chun.ph@rhbgroup.com
+662 862-9999
Vikran Lumyai
Senior Associate Research
vikran.lu@rhgroup.com
+622 862-9999
Thanapol Withayaruksun
Associate Research
thanapol.wi@rhbgroup.com
+622 862-9999
Naruedom Mujjalinkool
Associate Research
naruedom.mu@rhbgroup.com
+622 862-9999
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
Disclosure & Disclaimer
All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or
warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an
offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared
for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report
does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the
information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or
financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies.
RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in
securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may
be materially interested in any such securities. Further, RHB, its affiliates and related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies)
covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such
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advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies), as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity
mentioned in this research report.
RHB and its employees and/or agents do not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses, loss of profits or damages that may
arise from any reliance based on this report or further communication given in relation to this report, including where such losses, loss of profits or
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and shall refer to RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd, its holding company, affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies.
All Rights Reserved. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without
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Malaysia
This report is published and distributed in Malaysia by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (233327-M), Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre, Jalan Tun
Razak, 50400 Kuala Lumpur, a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Investment Bank Berhad (RHBIB), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB
Capital Berhad.
Singapore
This report is published and distributed in Singapore by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd (Reg. No. 200808705N), a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG
& Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group) and OSK
Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB”, which in
turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities
Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd may have received compensation from the company covered in this report for its corporate finance
or its dealing activities; this report is therefore classified as a non-independent report.
As of 17 February 2015, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd do not have proprietary
positions in the securities covered in this report, except for:
a)
As of 17 February 2015, none of the analysts who covered the securities in this report has an interest in such securities, except for:
a)
Special Distribution by RHB
Where the research report is produced by an RHB entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only
distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore.
If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard
this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore
Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd.
Hong Kong
This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited (“RHBSHK”) (formerly known as OSK Securities
Hong Kong Limited), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged
entity is referred to as “RHBIB”), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad.
RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company.
RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain
compensation for investment banking services from the subject company.
See important disclosures at the end of this report
6
Shanghai
Phnom Penh
Risk Disclosure Statements
The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that
losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK
does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report
Indonesia
This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a
subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad.
Thailand
This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a
subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad.
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In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and
regulations of the jurisdictions.
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Advisory Co. Ltd.)
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No. 1-3, Street 271
Sangkat Toeuk Thla, Khan Sen Sok
Phnom Penh
Cambodia
Tel: +(855) 23 969 161
Fax: +(855) 23 969 171
Bangkok
RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL
(formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL)
10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower
98, North Sathorn Road,Silom
Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
Thailand
Tel: +(66) 862 9999
Fax : +(66) 108 0999
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