Daily FX & Market Commentary Market Recap Nov 13, 2014

Transcription

Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Daily FX & Market Commentary
Nov 13, 2014
Published from Tuesday to Friday
Market Recap
• U.S. stocks fell: The S&P’s 500 Index was
little changed, losing 0.1%.
• After market closed, Tencent (700) said 3Q
net income rose 46% to 5.7billion yuan,
less than market estimate.(Pls see page 3
for analysis)
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
announced that the CNY conversion limit
for HK residents of RMB20,000 per day will
be removed with effect from Nov 17, 2014.
Table: Daily Market Movement (Nov 12, 2014)
Equity Market Indices
U.S.
S&P 500 Index
Dow Jones Industrial Average
NASDAQ Composite Index
Europe
Close Change
2,038.25
17,612.20
4,675.14
-1.4
-2.7
+14.6
335.09
9,210.96
-3.8
-158.1
Japan
TOPIX Index
Nikkei 225 Stock Average
1,377.05
17,197.05
+1.8
+72.9
China / Hong Kong
Hang Seng Index
Hang Seng China Enterprises
23,938.18
10,729.76
+129.9
+77.7
2,494.48
+24.8
Stoxx Europe 600 Index
DAX Index
Shanghai SE Composite
% Commodity Futures
Energy & Metals
-0.1% WTI Crude Oil (USD/bbl)
0.0% Brent Crude (USD/bbl)
+0.3% Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu)
COMEX Gold (USD/oz)
-1.1% LME Copper (USD/MT)
-1.7% Bond Yields & CNY
U.S. Treasuries - Yields
+0.1% 3-Month - Yield (%)
+0.4% 5-Year - Yield (%)
10-Year - Yield (%)
+0.5% 30-Year - Yield (%)
+0.7% USD/CNY
+1.0% China Renminbi Spot
Close
77.18
80.38
4.19
1,159.1
%
-1.0%
-1.6%
-1.5%
-0.3%
6,692.0
0.0%
Close Change
0.01
-0.01
1.65
+0.01
2.37
+0.01
+0.01
3.10
Close
6.13
%
+0.0%
Data Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Hot News: HKMA announces removal of yuan conversion
limit for HK residents
Chart: USD/CNY – Daily Chart
Source: Bloomberg L.P. as of Nov 13, 2014
CNY and HKD remained stable yesterday:
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the
CNY conversion limit for Hong Kong residents of
20,000 yuan per day will no longer be applicable with
effect from November 17, 2014.
• HKMA announced this timely measure on Nov 12,
ahead of the official start of the Shanghai-HK Stock
Connect program on Nov 17.
• Both USD/HKD and USD/CNY stayed flat at 7.7544
and 6.1263 respectively yesterday.
Citi analysts’ view:
• The policy intention is to facilitate sufficient RMB
supply offshore to allow further RMB financial
instruments to be offered and help pursue the RMB
internationalization goal.
• Note this latest move does not imply any change to
China’s capital account control, as local residents will
continue to be subjected to the maximum
RMB80,000 daily remittance limit.
• HK could see higher RMB deposit rates in the
medium term.
• The Stock Connect program provides a higher
yielding investment option for the offshore RMB. This
should help narrow the interest rate difference being
offered onshore and offshore overtime.
• However, in the near term, HK’s ‘idle’ RMB liquidity
pool remains large (RMB deposits amounted to
RMB944.5bn at end-Sep) and the maximum
northbound stock purchases are capped at
RMB13bn per day; therefore, Citi analysts believe
RMB deposit rates offered in HK will only likely be
raised gradually over the medium term.
• Falling commodity prices and subdued domestic
demand may mean the trade surplus may last well
into the first half of 2015，which may support CNY.
• USD/CNY may test lower at 6.10 in 0-3 months. The
pair may reach 6.04 in 6-12 months.
© 2014 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc. Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
1
FX & Commodity Technical Corner
YESTERDAY PERFORMANCE
FX TREND
TECHNICAL
CCY
USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
USD/SGD
GOLD
Close Price
Day High
Day Low
87.83
1.2438
115.49
1.5779
1.1319
0.8719
0.7879
0.9665
1.2904
1162.65
87.90
1.2498
116.01
1.5941
1.1359
0.8745
0.7906
0.9680
1.2936
1170.24
87.40
1.2419
114.89
1.5776
1.1281
0.8665
0.7799
0.9623
1.2883
1157.42
Short Term
Comment
Bullish
Bearish
Bullish
Neutral
Bullish
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Support
Resistance
84.75
1.2223
110.66
1.5722
1.1238
0.8545
0.7661
0.9156
1.2716
$1,032
88.70
1.2578
117.95
1.6003
1.1505
0.8899
0.8052
0.9839
1.2977
$1,200
Citi Foreign Exchange
Forecast:
0-3
Months
87.59
1.23
109.00
1.60
1.15
0.86
0.77
0.98
1.28
1200
6-12
Months
92.65
1.15
115.00
1.51
1.18
0.80
0.72
1.05
1.30
1240
FX Rate Source: Bloomberg L.P. (cut off time is NY Time 5:00pm)
• EUR fell: Eurozone Industrial Production only rose 0.6% in Sep, trailed market expectation.
• NZD rebounded: The RBNZ said it won’t relax mortgage lending restrictions for now as surging immigration and
low borrowing costs could re-ignite the housing market.
• GBP weakened: The BOE has lowered its GDP and CPI forecasts for the coming years in inflation report.
Daily FX Focus
GBP/USD may range trade between 1.5722-1.6003:
1.6003 (fibo 0.50)
1.5722 (fibo 0.618)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., data as of Nov 13, 2014
GBP Outlook:
• The MPC’s growth forecasts are marginally lower,
with GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015 (3.1%
previously) and sharply cut their near-term
inflation forecasts, expecting that CPI inflation will
be about 1.0% YoY on average in H1-2015.
• The MPC continues to expect average earnings
growth of 3¼% YoY in 2015. The MPC’s forecast
implies that unit labour cost growth in 2015 and
beyond may be roughly consistent with hitting the
inflation target over time rather than producing a
medium-term undershoot.
• We broadly share the MPC’s view that the UK is
set for solid economic growth with low inflation in
2015. Over time we suspect that the continued
tightening in the labour market means that the
MPC may need to hike more than markets price in.
Technical Analysis:
• Since RSI is trending up, GBP/USD downside may be limited and will likely range trade between 1.57221.6003 in the short term.
NOTE: The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.75 exchange rate for reference, and 1,000 yen per unit for JPY/HKD.
© 2014 Citibank
2
EUR/USD may fall further to 1.2223:
1.2578
(20MA)
1.2223 (200 month MA)
EUR Outlook:
• Eurozone Industrial Production only rose
0.6% in Sep, trailed market expectation,
reflecting the deterioration of Eurozone
economy.
• Citi analysts anticipate the ECB to implement
QE and mainly purchase government bonds
in Jan 2015. This will likely be EUR-negative
in the medium term.
• For the 0-3 months, we expect the EUR to
fall further to 1.23 and may drop toward 1.15
for the coming 6-12 months.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., data as of Nov 13, 2014
Technical Analysis:
• 1) RSI; Approaching oversold region; 2) Still within the downtrend channel
• Technical signals reflect the EUR/USD may gradually fall toward 1.2223, with short-term resistance at 1.2578.
Investment Market Update
Mobile internet drives growth of E-commerce in China
Chart: Number of mobile internet users and
penetration, 2007-2013
Source: iResearch
Tencent 3Q earning & Alibaba’s sales on Singles'
Day
• Tencent third-quarter net income rose 46% to 5.7billion
yuan, less than the market expectation of
Rmb6.1billion as finance costs and staff costs rose.
• On the Singles' Day (on Nov 11), which is the world's
biggest online retail sales day, Alibaba says it has
pulled in 57.1 billion yuan (US$9.3bn) in sales, up 62%
from last year.
Citi analysts’ view:
• According to China Internet Network Information
Center (CNNIC), the number of mobile internet
users grew from 118 million in 2008 to 500 million
in 2013, penetrating 81% of the total internet users
in China (Chart).
• Citi analysts anticipate the transition from PC to
mobile internet enables users to access more
frequently and evolve new opportunities in Ecommerce in the future.
• According to CNNIC, there were 302 million online
shoppers in China in 2013, representing 49% of
total internet users.
• Citi analysts believe the lack of offline retail
infrastructure and improvement in logistics for ecommerce companies pose opportunities for online
shopping in lower tier cities.
• Within the MSCI China Index, Citi analysts
anticipate earnings-per-share (EPS) of the I.T.
sector to grow 22% in 2015, higher than the 8%
EPS growth for the index. Citi analysts are
overweight in China I.T. stocks.
NOTE: The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.75 exchange rate for reference, and 1,000 yen per unit for JPY/HKD.
© 2014 Citibank
3
Important Economic Data (Nov 10, 2014 – Nov 14, 2014)
Time
Importance
Event
Period Actual
Survey
Prior
Monday
11/10/2014 09:30
CH
!!
CPI YoY
Oct
1.60%
1.60%
1.60%
11/10/2014 21:15
CA
!
Housing Starts
Oct
183.6K
200.0K
197.4K
-¥714.5 -¥782.5B -¥831.8B
Tuesday
11/11/2014 07:50
JN
!!
Trade Balance BoP Basis
Sep
11/11/2014 08:30
AU
!
NAB Business Confidence
Oct
4
--
5
Nov
1.90%
--
0.90%
Wednesday
11/12/2014 07:30
AU
!
Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM
11/12/2014 08:30
AU
!!
Wage Price Index YoY
3Q
2.60%
2.60%
2.60%
11/12/2014 17:30
UK
!!!
Jobless Claims Change
Oct
-20.4K
-20.0K
-18.4K
11/12/2014 17:30
UK
!!!
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Sep
6.00%
5.90%
6.00%
11/12/2014 18:30
UK
!!!
Bank of England Inflation Report
Nov
Thursday
11/13/2014 08:00
NZ
!
ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM
Nov
--
--
-3.40%
11/13/2014 08:01
UK
!!
RICS House Price Balance
Oct
--
25%
30%
11/13/2014 13:30
CH
!!
Retail Sales YoY
Oct
--
11.60%
11.60%
11/13/2014 13:30
CH
!!
Industrial Production YoY
Oct
--
8.00%
8.00%
11/13/2014 21:30
US
!!
Initial Jobless Claims
Nov
--
--
278K
Friday
11/14/2014 03:00
US
!
Monthly Budget Statement
Oct
--
-$111.7B
--
11/14/2014 18:00
EC
!!!
CPI YoY
Oct
--
0.40%
0.40%
11/14/2014 18:00
EC
!!!
GDP SA YoY
3Q
--
0.60%
0.70%
11/14/2014 21:30
US
!!!
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Oct
--
0.20%
-0.30%
11/14/2014 21:30
US
!!!
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Oct
--
0.20%
-0.20%
11/14/2014 22:55
US
!!
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
Nov
--
87.5
86.9
For any enquiries, please call (852) 2860-0333.
Source: Source: Bloomberg L.P.
(K = Thousand, M = Million, B = Billion)
This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management and Citigroup Alternative Investments. It is
provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the
objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial
situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in
this document are not recommendations of Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited (“Citibank”) or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to
be reliable, Citi analysts do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of
publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The
document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to
fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the
amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not
provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Investment products: (i) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations
of any insured depository institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecasts are a
joint venture between Citi’s foreign exchange, global macro and technical strategy groups and our developed and emerging markets economists. Under normal circumstances, we expect to present
Forecasts on a monthly schedule although we may offer intra month updates if circumstances dictate. Technical Trend: All views, opinions and estimates derived from CitiFX Technicals (i) may
change without notice and (ii) may differ from those views;, opinions and estimates held or expressed by Citi or other Citi personnel, including Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecast. Should CitiFX
Technicals not cover any major currency pairs, the indication of short-term technical "bullish", "bearish", or "neutral" trends will be based on the result of analysis with various widely known short-term
technical analysis tools, namely RSI, MACD, fibonacci, stochastics, bollinger bands, and simple moving averages.
4

Daily FX & Market Commentary Market Recap Nov 13, 2014

Transcription

Similar documents

julian edelman - Tewksbury Youth Football

Daily FX & Market Commentary Market Recap Nov 19, 2014

Text a command to MYCITI (692484) and get the

Daily FX & Market Commentary Market Recap Nov 21, 2014