HIGHLIGHTS

Week 44
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Weekly Gas Report
HIGHLIGHTS
VLGC: Baltic turnaround
in an active spot market
Ammonia: Rising prices
cause buyers’ concern
Handy: Slowdown in activity
Coaster: Weaker period
rates
“At first they’ll ask you
why you’re doing it. Later,
they’ll ask you how you
did it. ”
VLGC
NH3
HANDY
The volatility in the VLGC market
reaffirmed itself this week. At the
very beginning of the week the
Index took a nosedive to the tune
of USD 9 from one day to the
next on the back of a well
publicized single fixture. This,
along
with
support
from
favourable product pricing from
the Middle East, led to a flurry of
activity and quite a few ships
finding employment for the
second half of next month. There
are still cargoes uncovered for
the end of the month and ship
dates are still uncertain due to
various types of delays. The next
weeks will prove interesting as
the posting of the Sonatrach
pricing at the end of the week
could soak up some more Eastern
tonnage going forward.
Black Sea and Middle East prices
remained stable for another
week, whilst a renegotiated
contract price for US Gulf cfr is up
US$15 on the week from last.
With the increasing prices, a
number of ammonia buyers in
the Far East are announcing
further reductions in operating
rates, as demand dwindles on the
back of increasing ammonia cost.
It has been a relatively quiet
week in the Handysize segment
with little activity reported. With
no vessels open on a prompt
basis, focus has naturally
continued to shift forward, with
the first open vessel seen 6-8th
November in the North Sea. The
ship will however only be open
for a short intra West European
voyage before she is due to sail
cross Atlantic. Moving into
November we see continued
demand in the Handysize
segment with freight rates
expected to remain stable.
The supply side is currently
seeing limitations as Egypt’s OCI/
EBIC plant continues to be out of
operation, and Algeria’s Sorfert
plant is still restarting its
production. Yara sold 25,500t for
Far East December delivery to
Marubeni for US$688 cfr. In the
Black Sea there is talk of OCI
purchasing a 12,000t cargo from
OPZ via B-fertilizer, at a price
West of Suez we have seen some around US$610 fob for Yuzhnyy
activity with one ship fixed from loading in early November.
Houston on December dates and
one Charterer securing a vessel
ballasting from the East to load
West Africa. There is some
uncertainty for west loaders as
there are still vessels available for
November dates and current
pricing does not seem to support
much spot trade.
The
smaller
ships
have
unfortunately seen less enquiries
compared to last week, but the
month of October has showed
signs that activity is picking up.
The question is how much
increase in activity we need to
see before this will have an
impact on freight rates going
forward. Our expectation is that
the spot market will show some
positive signs in the short term.
However, we still expect that
timecharter rates on a longer
term basis will soften further.
VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE)
US$/month
4,000,000
3,700,000
3,400,000
3,100,000
2,800,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
1,900,000
1,600,000
1,300,000
1,000,000
700,000
400,000
100,000
-200,000 1
-500,000
COASTER
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
5 YR LOW
1
5 YR HIGH
5 YR AVG
2014 Ytd
Week no
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
LPG
LPG prices ending
the week higher in
all regions
Prices in the North West European market ended higher, recovering some of the recent
losses, although supply length
remained an issue into the second half of November. Crude
and naphtha gave little new
impetus, but signs of firmer US
demand had a price effect
across the Atlantic. Mild winter
weather is still limiting household sector demand. Petchem
sector continues to absorb propane while butane demand is
very slow.
release of the CP for November,
which came out at US$ 610 and
600 for propane and butane
respectively., sharply down on
October numbers. Several Fob
cargoes were sold from the
large producers, no doubt the
effect of lower freight rates and
recovering Asian prices. December CP swaps ended the week at
US$ 672 indicating an steepening price contango.
The Asian LPG market reversed
some of the recent losses , ending the week higher. However,
overall sentiment remained
weak as supply length was evident into December. Prompt
In the Middle Eastern Gulf, demand is limited due to well
activity priced up in the second filled inventories not least in
half of the week following the Japan. The November to Decem-
BG Group has halted its plans to
develop the Prince Rupert LNG
project in British Columbia. The
decisions is based on BG’s forecast of close to 90 million tonnes
of LNG exported from the US
together with weaker outlook
for gas pricing generally and a
very well supplied market post
2020.
LNG
Dominion has started the
construction of its LNG export
project at Cove Point in
Maryland after being granted
more than 60 approvals and
permits necessary. The project,
which is expected to cost US$
3.4-3.8 billion, is targeted to
start operations in late 2017. The
production capacity has been
fully committed to buyers on a
John Fredriksen has ordered two
20-year service agreement.
LNG vessels at Daewoo, costing
US$ 204.5 million each. The
ships will be featuring ME-GI gas
2
ber price contango widened as
December arrivals were still
uncertain and winter demand
was still seen to provide upside
potential to demand.
US propane prices recovered on
increased demand. It was speculated that crop drying was the
main contributing factor although stock building ahead of
the winter also could have
played a role. EIA reported a
much stronger than expected
draw in inventories of 1.34 ml
bl, half of which occurred in the
US Gulf region, reflecting strong
exports.
injection propulsions system.
Delivery is scheduled for August
2017.
Jiangsu Hantong shipyard in
China has received the world’s
first order for a 2,200cbm compressed natural gas (CNG) carrier . The ship will be operated by
Indonesia’ state owned power
company PTPLN on domestic
voyages serving communities
without access to natural gas by
pipeline.
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
FIXTURES
SPOT
Vessel
Built
IRIS GLORY
2008
BRITISH COMMERCE 2006
MUSANAH
2009
AVANCE
2003
YAMABUKI
2010
HISUI
2010
CRYSTAL MARINE
2003
FOUNTAIN RIVER
1997
BERGE SUMMIT
1990
LAVENDER PASSAGE 2004
JAG VISHNU
1994
SIGAS MAUD
2006
SIGAS MARGRETHE
2006
JS ALULAR
2012
JS CHUKAR
2012
OCEAN PRIMUS
1992
GAS LEGACY
1998
B GAS SUPREME
2014
CESKA
2003
Cbm
83782
83269
81629
80906
80793
80199
80138
79527
78488
76882
75300
5018
5018
5000
5000
4312
3514
3500
2939
Qty
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
2'
FC
2'5
FC
1'8
1'8
1'6
1'6
Cargo
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
PROPANE
BUTANE
BUTANE
RAFF1
BUTANE
BUTANE
PROPANE
BUTANE
Load
AG
BONNY
AG
AG
AG
AG
AG
AG
AG
HOUSTON
AG
TEES
SINES
FAWLEY
RAVENNA
STANLOW
GRANGEMOUTH
RAS SHUKHEIR
FREDERICIA
Disch
EAST
EAST
EAST OPTS
EAST
EAST
EAST
ECI
EAST
EAST OPTS
OPTS
ECI
DUNKIRK
MOHAMMEDIA
OPTS
OPTS
OPTS
OPTS
OPTS
OPTS
Laycan
28-29 NOV
18-20 NOV
ELY NOV
29-30 NOV
18-19 NOV
23-24 NOV
14-15 NOV
07-09 NOV
25-30 NOV
03-04 DEC
15-16 NOV
06-NOV
ELY NOV
28-30 OCT
05-07 NOV
28-29 OCT
03-05 NOV
01-03 NOV
03-05 NOV
Rate US$
MID 80S
RNR
RNR
HIGH 80S
3.275 MILL LS BSS 1:3
BALTIC RELATED
3.8 MILL LS BSS 1:.3
85
ARND 80
85 BSS FLUSHING
3.85 MILL LS BSS 1:3
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
Charterer
GUNVOR
SAHARA
PETREDEC
ENEOS
IOC
CARGILL
IOC
E1
PETREDEC
PETROBRAS
IOC
ENI
PETREDEC
PETREDEC
VINMAR
ESSAR
PETROINEOS
OXTON
STASCO
Period
5 YEARS
Hire US$
Charterer
AROUND 30K PER DAY GEOGAS
PERIOD
Vessel
BW EMPRESS
Built Cbm Trade Delivery
2005 77330
NOV
RATES
The Baltic Exchange LPG Index
44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba
Weekly Baltic average
Baltic TC Equivalent
(US$/pmt)
(US$/pcm)
(US$/pd)
Last Week
104.80
2,909,193
95,634
This Week
90.79
2,407,814
79,152
Trend
Softening
Softening
Softening
12 months Time Charter - Indicators
3.200 cbm S/R
3.500 cbm P/R - East
3.500 cbm P/R - West
5.000 cbm P/R
6.500 cbm S/R
10.000 cbm ETH
20.000 cbm S/R
35.000 cbm
60.000 cbm
82.000 cbm
Last Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pcm)
230,000
190,000
200,000
250,000
410,000
570,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
1,600,000
1,900,000
Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
VALUATIONS
We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a
regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures.
3
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
PRODUCTS & PRICES
LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380
Propane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
Butane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
566.00
4.06%
550.00
-2.55%
469.75
5.52%
506.29
4.74%
593.00
594.00
7.08%
4.38%
610.00
723.00
-18.14%
4.70%
600.00
703.00
-21.57%
4.84%
3.87
80.56
488.00
6.69%
-1.15%
1.33%
usd/mmbtu
usd/bbl
usd/pmt
NWE
CIF ARA Small
US Mt Belvieu
Non-LST
NWE Propane Swaps
Q1 forward
Q2 forward
MEG
Contract Price
Japan CFR
NG, Crude & IFO380
NG, NYMEX
WTI, Crude - Spot
IFO380, Fujairah
Various Sources
Name
Brokers
Anders Lalim
Martin Engelsen Hals
Katie Du
Sebastian Isaksen
Henrik Konow Verlo
Research
Knut Stangebye Olsen
Operation
Håvard Teigland
Spyros Bampetas
Office
Mobile
Yahoo Messenger
(+47) 2252 7707
(+47) 2252 7783
(+47) 2252 7736
(+47) 2252 7737
(+47) 2252 7755
(+47) 905 30 930
(+47) 909 39 949
(+47) 901 54 760
(+47) 958 00 214
(+47) 924 65 307
la_limno
martinengelsenhals
katiemin1209
sebastian.isaksen
hkverlo
(+47) 2252 7703
(+47) 952 48 490
knutstangebyeolsen
(+47) 2252 7733
(+30) 2108 9000 62
(+47) 980 43 763
(+30) 6973 38 2273
havardteigland
spyrosbampetas
Email:
Phone:
Fax:
lorgas@lorstem.no
(+47) 2252 77 00
(+47) 2252 78 64
Lorentzen & Stemoco AS
Munkedamsveien 45
8th floor, lift E
PO Box 2029 Vika,
N-0125 Oslo, Norway
www.lorstem.com
4