HIGHLIGHTS

Week 45
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Weekly Gas Report
HIGHLIGHTS
VLGC: Baltic Index
stagnating?
Ammonia: Price increases
meeting buyer resistance
Handy: Two addition to
the Navigator fleet
VLGC
NH3
HANDY
Activity levels have tapered off
somewhat after a very active
second half of last week and first
half of this week. November ships
have now largely disappeared
however this seems to coincide
with a reduced appetite for
chartering in, particularly East of
Suez. There are still cargoes
available, however whether these
will actually be lifted remains to
be seen as the list of December
deliveries in the Far East is now
quite long and product pricing
does not seem to support further
trading.
International ammonia prices
continued firming in the Middle
East Gulf, but remained relatively
stable elsewhere. Speculations
are that prices could ease near
term.
The week began with the news of
Navigator adding an additional
two Handysize vessels to their
fleet. The two 22,000cbm vessels
will be built at Hyundai Mipo
Dockyards at a price of US$ 51
million each with delivery in Q1
2017. Both vessels will start five
year time charters upon delivery
with
additional
charterer’s
options. In the spot market
Navigator still has a vessel open
in ARA region with a 10 day gap.
The remainder of the fleet
remains well employed with
enquiries and discussion focused
on
cargoes
with
forward
dates.
The gas supply situation in
Ukaraine may ease with the
Government’s latest deal with
Russia. However, it is to early to
dicide how this may impact
ammonia production. October
saw just over 190,000 tonnes
shipped out of the region, while
the lineup for November stands
at just under 200,000 tonnes.
Production problems continue to
dog output in Ukraina, Trinidas,
Egypt and Algeria and serve to COASTER
support prices, particularly West
We have entered into the season
of Suez.
of time charter renewals, with
and
traders
both
Asian buyers are trying to resist majors
higher producer price quotations reviewing their options. Statoil
by reducing output of phosphate hit the market this week with a
as the price of the latter is under requirement for two 5,000cbm
pressurized coasters drawing
pressure.
interest
from
multiple
owners. The pressure on freight
rates in the spot market is being
reflected in the period market
and we believe that time charter
rates will continue to soften.
West of Suez has seen some
Coaster: Weaker period activity with vessels fixed from
rates as renewals are ne- North West Europe as well as
gotiated
from Houston. It’s not easy to
predict the movement of the
market in the weeks ahead,
however there are factors at play
that could see this spout of
volatility prolongued.
“Do what is right, not
what is easy”
VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE)
US$/month
4,000,000
3,700,000
3,400,000
3,100,000
2,800,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
1,900,000
1,600,000
1,300,000
1,000,000
700,000
400,000
100,000
-200,000 1
-500,000
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
5 YR LOW
1
5 YR HIGH
5 YR AVG
2014 Ytd
Week no
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
LPG
LPG prices see large
falls in NW Europe
and Far East, firming
in the US
Prices in the North West European saw sharp falls as tumbling
crude and naphtha values took
its toll, while also weighted
down by ample prompt tonnes.
This led to a new 5-year low
being recorded at US$ 514.5 for
propane and 522 for butane.
However, comparable reductions in naphtha prevented petchem buyers interest in a thinly
balanced butane market. Cracking demand was reduced due to
outages. Butane remained at
82% of naphtha. Gasoline blending demand remained evasive.
following a flurry of Fob sales
done last week. Fob discounts to
CP steepened as Asian prices
came under strong pressure
combining with rising freight
rates. December CP swaps ended the week at US$ 690.
The Asian LPG market recorded
sharp losses following tumbling
crude and naphtha values. An
overhang of unplaced November cargoes are exerting pressure on December delivered
prices. However, the sharp price
falls are also starting to trigger
buying interest including Chinese bargain hunters. That said
end user demand is still subdued due to high inventories.
In the Middle Eastern Gulf, the Butane prices have recovered to
week started on a slow note parity with propane.
LNG
Hoegh LNG has declared an option for a fifth FSRU at Hyundai.
The vessel will be delivered during first half 2017. Earlier this
week the company the company
signed a 5 year contract with
EGAS, Egypt to employ the FSRU
newbuilding “Høegh Gallant” as
a regas unit starting by the end
of the first quarter 2015. In a
separate press release the company also announced a contract
with SPEC, Columbia for the 20
year employment of an FSRU on
2
US propane saw active trade
and prices bucked the trend
seen in overseas markets as
cooler weather brought more
buyers forward. Some easing
back in prices was evident following the release of the EIA
propane inventory data for October 31. Stocks showed a lower
than expected draw of 144,000
bl to 80.127 ml bl. Some price
support was provided by petchem buyers finding propane
the preferred feedstock based
on cracking economics.
the Atlantic coast starting in mid- Excelerate Energy will be the
lead contractor in the consorti2016.
um to provide the floating LNG
(FLNG) unit for the Ophir Energy
development off Equatorial
Chubu Electric signed an Guinea. The project will soon
agreement with GDF Suez to enter the FEED (front end engibuy 20 LNG cargoes, equivalent neering and design) stage. The
to approximately 1.2 million tons unit is planned with a 2.4mtpa
of LNG for delivery between capacity with projected start-up
January 2015 and March 2017. in 2018 subject to final investPrices will be partly linked to ment decision (FID).
Asia’s spot LNG market and the
gas
will
be
sourced
from GDF Suez’s worldwide LNG
project portfolio.
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
FIXTURES
SPOT
Vessel
PROVIDENCE
AURORA TAURUS
BRITISH COUNCILLOR
AL WUKIR
CAPTAIN JOHN NP
BW DENISE
OCEAN PRIMUS
MARIANNE
Built
2008
2008
2007
2008
2007
2001
1992
2009
Cbm
82423
82000
81605
80841
80595
78637
4312
3469
Qty
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
1'8
1'8
Cargo
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
BUTANE
BUTANE
Load
RUWAIS
HOUSTON
KAARSTOE
RAS LAFFAN
RAS LAFFAN
AG
LAVERA
GRANGEMOUTH
Disch
EAST
FLUSHING
EAST
SIKKA
EAST
EAST
OPTS
OPTS
Laycan
28-29 NOV
5-7 NOV
23-24 NOV
25-26 NOV
2H NOV
25-26 NOV
12-14 NOV
7-9 NOV
Rate US$
MID 80S
72
ARND 90-100
RNR
HIGH 90S
HIGH 90S
RNR
RNR
Charterer
GUNVOR
VITOL
STATOIL
RELIANCE
SHELL
VILMA
EXXON
PETROINEOS
Del date
Q1 2017
2016
Price MUS$
51M
Buyer
NAVIGATOR
EVERGAS
SALE & PURCHASE / NEWBUILDING
Vessel
TBN (X2)
TBN (X2)
Built Cbm Delivery place/yard
22'
27'5
HYUNDAI MIPO
SINOPACIFIC
RATES
The Baltic Exchange LPG Index
44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba
Weekly Baltic average
Baltic TC Equivalent
(US$/pmt)
(US$/pcm)
(US$/pd)
Last Week
90.79
2,407,814
79,152
This Week
97.73
2,670,506
87,788
Trend
Firming
Firming
Firming
12 months Time Charter - Indicators
3.200 cbm S/R
3.500 cbm P/R - East
3.500 cbm P/R - West
5.000 cbm P/R
6.500 cbm S/R
10.000 cbm ETH
20.000 cbm S/R
35.000 cbm
60.000 cbm
82.000 cbm
Last Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
6,246
6,575
8,218
13,478
18,738
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pcm)
230,000
190,000
200,000
250,000
410,000
570,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
1,600,000
1,900,000
Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
VALUATIONS
We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a
regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures.
3
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
PRODUCTS & PRICES
LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380
Propane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
Butane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
515.00
-9.90%
542.50
-1.38%
438.55
-7.11%
489.18
-3.50%
530.00
548.00
-11.89%
-8.39%
610.00
676.50
0.00%
-6.87%
600.00
676.50
0.00%
-3.92%
4.40
78.59
475.00
12.05%
-2.51%
-2.74%
usd/mmbtu
usd/bbl
usd/pmt
NWE
CIF ARA Small
US Mt Belvieu
Non-LST
NWE Propane Swaps
Q1 forward
Q2 forward
MEG
Contract Price
Japan CFR
NG, Crude & IFO380
NG, NYMEX
WTI, Crude - Spot
IFO380, Fujairah
Various Sources
Name
Brokers
Anders Lalim
Martin Engelsen Hals
Katie Du
Sebastian Isaksen
Henrik Konow Verlo
Research
Knut Stangebye Olsen
Operation
Håvard Teigland
Spyros Bampetas
Office
Mobile
Yahoo Messenger
(+47) 2252 7707
(+47) 2252 7783
(+47) 2252 7736
(+47) 2252 7737
(+47) 2252 7755
(+47) 905 30 930
(+47) 909 39 949
(+47) 901 54 760
(+47) 958 00 214
(+47) 924 65 307
la_limno
martinengelsenhals
katiemin1209
sebastian.isaksen
hkverlo
(+47) 2252 7703
(+47) 952 48 490
knutstangebyeolsen
(+47) 2252 7733
(+30) 2108 9000 62
(+47) 980 43 763
(+30) 6973 38 2273
havardteigland
spyrosbampetas
Email:
Phone:
Fax:
lorgas@lorstem.no
(+47) 2252 77 00
(+47) 2252 78 64
Lorentzen & Stemoco AS
Munkedamsveien 45
8th floor, lift E
PO Box 2029 Vika,
N-0125 Oslo, Norway
www.lorstem.com
4