Document 6603804

Market Report
18 November 2014
Important events for this week:
Thursday: MPC Interest Rate Announcement
Friday: Last Trading Day for November Safex Contracts
INDEX TABLE
CBOT Dec Corn
CBOT Dec Wheat
CBOT Jan Soya
R/$
Brent Crude Spot
Previous day
12pm
3.8150
5.6075
10.1950
11.1056
78.25
Present
day
3.7675
5.5000
10.2975
11.1105
78.89
Change
-4.75
-10.75
10.25
0.005
0.64
CBOT
$/mt
148.32
202.09
378.36
SA $/mt
188.11
332.39
504.57
Implied Parity
Move
-R 20.04
-R 42.88
R 43.68
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
CORN/MAIZE
CBOT – Dec ▼4.25c/bu @ 377.50c
Overnights Dec ▼0.75c/bu @ 376.75c
 Corn prices started last night’s session on a positive note but closed lower
 Early support came from ideas that the last bit of the harvest will be delayed due to snowy
conditions in the Midwest while late pressure came from farmer and fund selling as well as
disappointing US export inspections, which were lower than last week and below expectations
 The updated harvest progress, released after the close, shows that the US harvest in keeping
up with the normal pace for this time of the year after a slow start due to too much rain
WHEAT
CBOT – Dec ▼8.50c/bu @ 551.75c
Overnights Dec ▼1.50c/bu @ 550.25c
 Wheat prices traded higher at the opening of the CBOT session last night but closed lower
 Poor US weekly export data put late pressure on the market as US prices are too high to
compete with other exporting countries
 Weak Paris wheat futures, due to a bird-flu outbreak in Netherlands and the UK, also helped
put pressure on CBOT prices. The outbreak follows on from a case in Germany last week
 More pressure was felt from a report showing Ukrainian farmers have planted 6.4mil ha of
winter wheat this season, which is 200k more than expected and 300k more than last year
SOYA COMPLEX
Soya Beans – Jan ▲13.75c/bu @ 1036.25c
Overnights Jan ▼5.25c/bu @ 1031.00c
Soya Meal - Dec ▲$8.80@ $387.40/short ton; Soya Oil - Dec ▲3c@ 32.24c/lb
 Massive US weekly export inspections offered strong support to the soya market last night
 Weekly export data come in at a mega 3.11mmt vs. 2.48mmt last week and 2.39 last year
 The USDA also announced an additional sale of 115kmt of US beans to China
 There was added support from data showing US processors crushed 158mb of beans last
month – the biggest volume on record for October and well above September’s 100mb
 There were however some bearish factors to consider with the Brazilian planting pace picking
up, plenty of bean deliveries against CBOT contracts while a bird flu outbreak in the EU also
added some resistance. Brazil’s, Mato Grosso, their biggest producing state, is 84% complete
SAFEX PREVIOUS DAY MTM
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Yellow
Maize
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
White Maize
M-T-M
Nov WM
R 2 011
2
219
-8
Nov YM
R 2 040
2
98
-31
Dec WM
R 2 014
-3
10 782
-383
Dec YM
R 2 060
1
6 446
-111
Mar WM
R 2 031
-7
12 616
25
Mar YM
R 2 090
-2
5 223
4
May WM
R 2 016
4
236
-1
May YM
R 2 051
-4
200
3
Jul WM
R 2 030
13
3 552
-34
Jul YM
R 2 064
1
3 423
46
Sep WM
R 2 037
1
6
0
R0
0
-
0
Corn in
Rands
M-T-M
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Dec Crn
R 1 672
-28
1 116
38
Nov Wht
R 3 675
3
4
0
Mar Crn
R 1 755
-27
231
81
Dec Wht
R 3 693
-7
11 686
-470
Jul Crn
R 1 863
-30
598
-17
Mar Wht
R 3 786
-8
8 600
453
May Wht
R 3 828
19
1 027
136
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Change
M-T-M
Sep YM
Wheat
Change
M-T-M
Change
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
R 5 105
-8
32
-67
Nov Soya
R 5 601
-84
23
-3
Dec Suns
R 5 110
-23
4 560
61
Dec Soya
R 5 606
-110
6 165
-135
Mar Suns
R 4 878
0
525
0
Mar Soya
R 5 301
-64
1 107
-1
May Suns
R 4 430
-8
715
0
May Soya
R 4 911
-54
2 291
23
Sunflower
M-T-M
Nov Suns
Soya
Change
M-T-M
Yesterday, maize prices started the day lower with pressure coming from lower US prices and the
stronger rand but once again we saw strong buying in the dips and prices closed around
unchanged levels well above the indicative parity. The July ‘15 WM contract found very good
support after a dry weekend in the west but farmers there don’t seem too worried and most of
them have had enough rain to start preparing lands and actually don’t want too much rain until
next week.
COMMENTARY
US Weekly Crop Progress and Conditions: The US summer crop harvest is edging closer to the
finish line after catching up impressively during the past few weeks and keeping pace with the
averages.
US Corn Harvesting Progress (%)
Last
Week Ending Current
week
16-Nov
89
80
Extreme
values
Last
Year
90
US Soya Beans Harvesting Progress (%)
Last
Last
Week Ending Current
week
Year
16-Nov
94
90
94
5yr
Ave.
88
10yr
Ave.
20yr
Ave.
85
89
Highest
Year
Lowest
Year
97
2007
56
2009
Highest
Year
Lowest
Year
98
2007
80
1985
Extreme
values
5yr
Ave.
96
10yr
Ave.
20yr
Ave.
0
0
US Winter Wheat Crop Condition (%)
Last
Week Ending
Current
week
Good / Excellent
16-Nov
60
60
Poor / very Poor
16-Nov
6
6
Extreme values
Last
Year
10yr
Ave.
20yr
Ave.
Highest
Year
Lowest
Year
63
56
57
77
2004
35
2012
7
12
11
23
2012
3
2004
Rand: The rand weakened against the dollar yesterday as markets braced for consumer inflation
numbers and an interest rate decision by the central bank later in the week.
Commodity prices hurt emerging markets across the board as oil and gold fell, dragging EM
currencies lower and stoking worries that developing economies could return to the pre-financial
crisis dilemma of low growth and high interest rates.
South Africa's Reserve bank announces its final interest rate decision of the year on Thursday,
with a narrow majority of analysts in a Reuters poll predicting that the bank will keep rates at
5.75%. Tomorrow Statistics South Africa releases October inflation data, which at the current 5.9%
level sits just below the ceiling of the central bank's target range.
WEATHER
P
SA:
Sakkie Nigrini – Netfor: Koud vanoggend maar nie so kwaai soos gister oggend oor die Vrystaat
nie maar by gesê 6-8 C is nou ook nie juis warm nie. Die noordelike dele van die land en groot
dele van Botswana is bewolk vanoggend maar daardie digte band vog uit die I.T.K.S is nou noord
van die land. Dit beteken die son het minder werk vandag om die vog weg te brand en daar
behoort son kolle deur te breek vanaf die laat oggend. Ook die res van die land in die weste was
aan die koel kant vandag maar met sonskyn weer oppad, sal dit aansienlik warmer word in die
weste. Daar is genoeg vog, nou moet die son net sy werk doen om genoeg hitte te maak sodat
daar enkele los storms kan ontwikkel vanmiddag. So bietjie beter as gister maar onthou elke koel
dag nou sal maak dat die gem temperatuur vir November waarskynlik nie bokant die norm beweeg
nie, ja daar kan nog van nou tot die einde van die maand Warm dae voorkom, maar dit sal elke
dag 33 C plus moet wees om by die norm uit te kom, so in die algemeen gesien was November tot
nou toe koud vir somer!!
International:
US: The DTN Ag weather forecast calls for weekend snow that fell in the western Midwest and
moderate precipitation through the eastern portion of the region to mean delays to late-stage
harvest. Very low temperatures are in store during the next five days, followed by some
moderation. Wheat has likely entered dormancy due to the recent extreme cold event.
South America: In central Brazil, warmer weather early this week will promote development of
soybeans while increasing showers from the middle to the end of this week will help maintain at
least adequate soil moisture.
In southern Brazil and Argentina, high temperatures during the weekend and early this week will
help improve conditions for planting and for the soggy wheat fields in the area. Shower threats
may increase somewhat during the week while temperatures remain near to above normal. In
general, the pattern is more favourable for wheat and for planting summer crops.
PIVOT POINTS
Intraday Pivot Points
Second Resistance
First Resistance
Pivot
First Support
Second Support
Dec WM
2042
2028
2013
1999
1984
Dec YM
2081
2069
2059
2047
2037
Dec
Corn
1681
1677
1673
1669
1666
Dec
Wheat
3703
3697
3693
3687
3683
Dec
Suns
5256
5188
5144
5076
5032
Dec Soya
5732
5668
5635
5571
5538
CONTACT DETAILS
POINTS
Pretoria
274 Emus Erasmus Ave
Erasmusrand
Pretoria
012 940 8347
John
012 940 8349
cell: 082 456 7434
john@agcomsa.co.za
Juanita
Tel: 012 940 8348
cell: 084 824 0902
juanita@agcomsa.co.za
P.O. Box 25082
Monument Park, 0105
The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources which we believe are reliable. Agcom
(Pty) Ltd does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect
judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Agcom (Pty) Ltd is strictly prohibited.
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