AGENDA FOR MORNING MEETINGS

Important events for this week:
Today: Sagis monthly report
st
Thursday: CEC – Summer crops revised area and 1 production estimate
INDEX TABLE
CBOT July Corn
CBOT March Wheat
CBOT May Soya
R/$
Brent Crude Spot
Market Report
24 February 2015
2014 November
2014
Previous day
12pm
4.0025
5.0925
10.0650
11.7310
59.83
Present
day
3.9575
5.0675
10.0750
11.6608
58.47
Change
-4.50
-2.50
1.00
-0.070
-1.36
CBOT
$/mt
155.79
186.20
370.19
SA $/mt
201.44
326.74
423.98
Implied Parity
Move
-R 31.72
-R 23.85
-R 21.68
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
CORN/MAIZE
CBOT – July ▼6.00c/bu @ 394.50c
Overnights – July ▲0.75c/bu @ 395.25c
 The stronger $, lower ethanol prices and technical selling out pressure on the corn market last
night. Prices closed at 3-week lows with funds selling around 6k contracts
 Ethanol prices closed 3.2% due to lower crude prices
 US weekly export inspections at 901kmt were higher than the market expected
WHEAT
CBOT– March ▼4.50c/bu @ 505.75c
Overnights – March ▲2.25c/bu @ 508.00c
 Wheat prices closed lower with the stronger $ and lower corn prices offering resistance
 US wheat export data was good last week with 502kmt inspected for export vs. 404kmt the
previous week
SOYA COMPLEX
Soya Beans – May ▼0.75c/bu @ 1001.50c
Overnights – May ▲6.25c/bu @ 1007.75c
Soya Meal - May ▲$3.20@ $343.40/short ton; Soya Oil - May ▼17c@ 31.09c/lb.
 Soya bean prices closed slightly lower due to “negative” US export data. Prices have however
found strong support this morning as updated weather forecasts show more rain further
slowing down the Brazilian harvest plus truckers are striking over high fuel prices
 Weekly export inspections showed 962kmt of US bean exported last week. While hardly a
disastrous figure it is the 1st week, since October, that exports have been below 1mmt and
compares with last week‟s 1.34mmt
 The Brazilian harvest has been slow this year - 17% harvested vs. 31% last year and an
average of 23%, due to late rains
 Meal prices closed lower last night despite more US cattle on feed due to the harsh weather
conditions. While US demand remains strong, Brazilian meal is said to be $60/mt cheaper than
US. Prices have rallied this morning on the back of more rain forecast for Brazil
SAFEX PREVIOUS DAY MTM
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Yellow
Maize
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
White Maize
M-T-M
Mar WM
R 2 611
-80
9 253
762
Mar YM
R 2 338
-79
4 495
-113
Apr WM
R 2 649
-70
8
0
Apr YM
R0
0
-
0
May WM
R 2 651
-80
1 015
191
May YM
R 2 360
-80
715
50
Jul WM
R 2 684
-80
15 068
1156
Jul YM
R 2 349
-80
11 661
182
Sep WM
R 2 714
-79
314
2
Sep YM
R 2 380
-75
254
1
Dec WM
R 2 762
-80
666
-1061
Dec YM
R 2 432
-69
444
-233
Corn in
Rands
M-T-M
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Mar Corn
R 1 778
-5
472
-66
Mar Wht
R 3 810
-30
11 703
-203
Jul Corn
R 1 885
-5
4 953
-48
May Wht
R 3 867
-33
6 630
-101
Dec Corn
R 2 007
0
278
0
Jul Wht
R 3 891
-25
3 018
41
Sep Wht
R 3 858
-7
2 118
22
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Change
Change
Wheat
M-T-M
M-T-M
Change
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
R 5 082
52
735
-35
Mar Soya
R 5 152
-8
1 328
-96
May Suns
R 5 077
77
1 836
62
May Soya
R 4 944
-21
4 793
-96
Jul Suns
R 5 122
77
124
-2
Jul Soya
R 5 007
-18
651
-3
Sep Suns
R 5 172
2
5
0
Sep Soya
R 5 081
-12
206
9
Dec Suns
R 5 237
-8
61
0
Dec Soya
R 5 148
2
2
2
Sunflower
M-T-M
Mar Suns
Change
Soya
M-T-M
The maize market opened lower yesterday with pressure from falling US prices but then fell
heavily soon after the opening as rain forecasts looked good for later this week. YM closed sharply
lower as well after spending most of the session tracking import parity movements. The market
remains very sensitive to weather forecasts and a lot of the regions could still produce a fair crop if
rain comes soon. There have been some good falls over the central Free State last night and this
morning with the chances still looking positive for later this week over most maize areas.
COMMENTARY
Rand: The rand weakened yesterday and traders were expecting the currency to remain under
pressure as investors awaited a slew of key economic data later in the week for direction.
At 1505 GMT the rand was trading 0.33% weaker at 11.6500 to the dollar compared with its Friday
closing level of 11.6120.
"The rand remains under pressure because the situation locally on the GDP side is not looking
very rosy against the background of what the (South Africa Revenue Service) may bring to the
table in the next few days in terms of taxation," said Cheslyn Francis, a portfolio manager at
Afrifocus Securities. "The market is apprehensive in terms of what is coming from the budget."
Statistics South Africa will release gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of
2014 today. Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene presents the national budget to parliament tomorrow,
where new tax measures could be announced. Trade data will be released on Friday.
The market was eager to see how Nene proposes to boost revenue, given anaemic economic
growth in Africa's most advanced economy. South Africa has grappled with persistent shortfalls on
its budget and current account since emerging from a 2009 recession, and this helped weaken the
rand nearly 10% last year. (Reuters)
CEC: The CEC will release their revised area and 1st production estimate for the summer crops on
Thursday. The 2015 local maize crop may be the smallest since 2011 as hot, dry weather in the
two biggest growing provinces damages the harvest, a survey showed.
Farmers may harvest 10.5mmt of maize this season, according to a median of five analysts‟
estimates in a survey. The range was between 9.9mmt and 11mmt and compares with 2014‟s
crop of 14.25mmt, the biggest in 33 years. Output was 10.4 million tons in 2011, the Grain
Information Service said.
The Free State and North West, which produced 64% of the harvest last year, haven‟t had
sufficient rains, according to Grain SA. They needed more than 20mm by the weekend for the crop
to recover, with much of the damage being irreversible.
Prices have rallied this year because of concern that the drought may limit the harvest this year.
Yellow maize rose for a fifth consecutive week, the longest such run of gains in more than a year.
The grain has advanced 12% so far this year. White maize has surged 28% during the period.
The committee will probably leave its estimate for the area of maize plantings unchanged from last
month‟s forecast of 2.66 million hectares, a median of three analyst‟s surveyed shows. This will be
1.2% smaller than in 2014.
The committee may leave its predictions for the output of wheat unchanged from the previous
estimate at 1.78mmt, a median of three analysts‟ estimate shows. (Bloomberg)
P
WEATHER
SA: 2-week forecast:
Sakkie Nigrini – Netfor: Goeie môre almal:
Tot en met middernag het daar sowat 8mm in die Bloemfontein gebied en sedert middernag nog
sowat 3mm. Ja, dit het gereën, is dit genoeg? Nee nog nie naastenby genoeg nie. Daar van
Kimberley, noord en ooswaarts het ook gem sowat 5-16mm geval, en ek dink nie daar is iemand
wat in die dele sal kla nie, sal net wil weet of daar nog reën sal val. Wel ja, die kanse bly redelik vir
die volgende klompie dae. Die blou kolletjies wat julle sien op die foto is waar daar nog vanoggend
buie was, ek dink nie daar kan veel donderbuie oor wees nie, terwyl die groen omkringde gebied
weer „n billike kans het vir donderweer later vanmiddag en vannag. Die geel strook is waar daar
ontwikkelling kan plaasvind en hopelik bereik die storms of buie ook Gauteng, dit raak nou krities
droog oor groot dele van die noordelike en oostelike binneland. Ja, Saterdag wat verby is het dit
goed in Durban gereën maar was ook nie geldig vir die hele KZN nie. Die blou wys waar dit nog
bewolk is vanoggend met mis op plekke, maar vandag is die kanse goed dat die son dit vinnig
gaan wegbrand. Die tropiese laag noord van Beira is nog daar, nog swakker as gister maar
Solank daar iets tol, hoe moeiliker is dit vir reën om noord uit te brei, die model sê die laag moet
nou begin verdwyn. Die ander knewel van „n laag, tropiese laag wat al sterker word lê oos van
Madagaskar, sien kaart. Volgens die modelle kom die ou nog verder Wes maar bly op die stadium
net ver genoeg oos om ons nie te kwaai te raak nie, alhoewel die bolug oor die land nog „n paar
dae gaan neem om te herstel na wat dit nou eintlik moet wees. Ek het hoop, al is dit nou nie
fantasties nie, dit lyk beter as die afgelope maand!!
International:
US: The DTN ag weather forecast calls for the Midwest cold wave of the past two weeks to ease
somewhat; temperatures during this week do not appear to be as low as last week. Wintertime
snow and rain events will likely make for adequate to surplus soil moisture for wheat during the
spring as well as moisture for row crop planting. Western Midwest areas may see light snow by
late this week.
Southern Plains wheat areas will get some benefit from a round of snow and freezing moisture
move through the region. More widespread moisture will be needed during spring, however, as
wheat moves into its post-dormancy phase.
South America: In central Brazil, a warmer and drier trend from northern Parana to Mato Grosso
during this week will favor early harvesting of summer crops. Episodes of scattered showers will
favor filling corn and soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil.
In central Argentina, soil moisture should support favourable conditions for reproductive to filling
crops early this week. Rainfall during Wednesday will maintain favourable conditions.
Black Sea: Recent above-normal temperatures have melted protective snow cover in wheat areas
of Ukraine and south Russia. The warming trend continues during this week. This will favor
overwintering wheat, except that the crop will be vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder
weather.
PIVOT POINTS
Intraday Pivot Points
Second Resistance
First Resistance
Pivot
First Support
Second Support
Jul WM
2751
2683
2684
2616
2617
Jul YM
2431
2392
2370
2331
2309
Jul
Corn
1901
1893
1881
1873
1861
Mar
Wheat
3851
3831
3806
3786
3761
May
Suns
5200
5149
5050
4999
4900
May Soya
4994
4980
4957
4943
4920
CONTACT DETAILS
POINTS
Pretoria
274 Emus Erasmus Ave
Erasmusrand
Pretoria
012 940 8347
John
012 940 8349
cell: 082 456 7434
john@agcomsa.co.za
Juanita
Tel: 012 940 8348
cell: 084 824 0902
juanita@agcomsa.co.za
P.O. Box 25082
Monument Park, 0105
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