Latest Maize Report
Transcription
Latest Maize Report
Unigrain (Pty) Ltd WEEKLY MAIZE REPORT Tel. No. : +27 11 692 4400 Fax. No. : +27 11 412 1183 18 DECEMBER 2014 INTERNATIONAL MARKET Table 1: CME Maize prices and weekly changes (cents/bushel) Weekly change Currently 11/12/2014 (c/bu) CME Mar-15 409 398 ½ 10 ½ CME Jul-15 424 412 ½ 11 ½ Monthly change (c/bu) 24 23 From the table above we see that US maize prices gained some good ground in the past week with both March and July CME maize contracts gaining some good ground. On a monthly basis US maize prices are also trading higher with CME March and July maize contracts gaining 6.2% and 5.7% in the past month respectively. On the technical chart for March CME maize we see that the market has posted some good gains in the past week and has broken above the key $4.00/bushel psychological resistance level and some more follow through buying/short covering was seen and the market traded to a high of $4.12/bushel which is its highest level in almost 6-months. At this stage the moving averages and indicators are still pulling higher which could continue to provide some support in the sessions ahead. US maize prices did get some support from the surging US wheat prices in the past week on reports that Russia is looking to limit their exports of wheat in order to calm local wheat prices. Another factor that provided some support in the past week was reported that the Chinese government also approved a GMO maize variety as well as 2 GMO soybean varieties which could be beneficial for US maize and soybean exports to China in the months ahead. It is also very interesting to see that the weekly US ethanol production figures remain th very strong with the production figures for the week ending the 12 of December reported at 990 000 barrels/day which is once again a new record high. Figure 1 below presents the weekly US ethanol production figures in the past few years. Figure 1: Weekly US ethanol production (000 barrels) 1000 950 900 850 800 750 Jan 06, 2012 Feb 10, 2012 Mar 16, 2012 Apr 20, 2012 May 25, 2012 Jun 29, 2012 Aug 03, 2012 Sep 07, 2012 Oct 12, 2012 Nov 16, 2012 Dec 21, 2012 Jan 25, 2013 Mar 01, 2013 Apr 05, 2013 May 10, 2013 Jun 14, 2013 Jul 19, 2013 Aug 23, 2013 Sep 27, 2013 Nov 01, 2013 Dec 06, 2013 Jan 10, 2014 Feb 14, 2014 Mar 21, 2014 Apr 25, 2014 May 30, 2014 Jul 04, 2014 Aug 08, 2014 Sep 12, 2014 Oct 17, 2014 Nov 21, 2014 700 The USDA released their December monthly supply and demand estimates in their report last week. From the USDA supply and demand estimates we see that: The average market expectation of the US 2014/15 maize ending stocks was seen at 2.027 billion bushels. The official estimate came in at 1.998 billion bushels which was well below the market expectations and lower than the 2.008 billion bushels reported in November. Changes to the US maize balance sheet included a 10 million bushel increase in the food usage of maize driving the ending stocks below the key 2 billion bushel level. Figure 2 below presents the US maize ending stocks and stock to usage ratio in the past few seasons. From the graph below we see that the 2014/15 US maize ending stocks is seen at its highest level since 2004/05 while the 2014/15 stock to usage ratio is estimated at 14.6% which is the highest since the 2005/06 season. Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report “Together we make a difference” Figure 2: US maize ending stocks and stock to usage 2500 30.0 2000 25.0 20.0 1500 15.0 1000 10.0 5.0 0 0.0 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 500 Ending stocks (mil bu) (RHS) Stocks to usage ratio (%) (RHS) In terms of the rest of the world the USDA in their December report estimated the 2014/15 world maize production at 991.58 million tons which is 1.2 million tons higher than the previous estimate. The higher world maize crop estimated in December is due to larger crop estimates for the EU and China. The USDA did lower their Argentine maize crop estimate by 1 million tons. The 2014/15 world maize ending stocks was estimated at 192.2 million tons which is 700 000 tons higher than the stocks estimate seen a month ago. Figure 3 below presents the world maize production and ending stocks estimates in the past few seasons. From the graph below we see that the world maize crop is seen at new record highs in the 2014/15 season and ending stocks in the 2014/15 season is seen at its highest level since 1999/00 and very close to record highs. Figure 3: World maize production and ending stocks (000 tons) 1100000 250000 1000000 200000 900000 800000 150000 700000 600000 100000 500000 Production 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 98/99 99/00 97/98 96/97 95/96 94/95 93/94 92/93 91/92 50000 90/91 400000 Ending stocks (mil tons) (RHS) Elsewhere in the world the weather conditions in South America has been mostly favorable in the past few weeks with some good rainfall amounts that was seen. Figure 4 presents the cumulative rainfall seen in South America in the past 30-days. From the weather map below we see that some very good rainfall was seen in the key growing areas of Argentina in the past month. In Brazil the northern growing areas did see some good rainfall but slightly drier conditions were seen in the southern parts of Brazil. Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report “Together we make a difference” 2 Figure 4: Cumulative rainfall past 30-days Looking at the weather forecast for the week ahead we see that some widespread heavy rainfall is forecasted for most of Brazil in the week ahead including the southern parts while the northeastern parts of Argentina is also expected to see some widespread rainfall. Based on this growing conditions in South America is expected to remain favorable in the week ahead. Figure 5 below presents the cumulative rainfall forecast for the week ahead. Figure 5: Cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead LOCAL GRAIN MARKET Figure 6 presents the weekly % change in our local maize market as well as the weekly change in CME maize prices and the rand. From the graph below we see that US maize prices posted some good gains in the past week with CME March and July maize contracts gaining 2.6% and 2.8% in the past week respectively. South African maize prices ended mixed in the past week with March white maize gaining 1.2% while yellow maize prices for March was unchanged week on week. It is also interesting to see that new crop July white maize contracts led the way higher in the past week gaining 1.4% in the past week. The rand was very volatile in the past week and is quoted at R11.59/$ this morning but the rand traded to an intraday high of R11.81/$ earlier this week but the local currency has managed to recover some of the losses seen recently. Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report “Together we make a difference” 3 Figure 6: Safex WM and YM CME March and rand/$ (% change) 4.00 3.00 2.63 2.79 2.00 1.43 1.17 1.00 0.00 0.00 Mar CME Jul CME Rand/$ -1.00 Safex Mar WM Safex Mar YM Safex Jul WM -0.34 -2.00 In the past week we did see that: The weather conditions have remained mostly favorable in most of the key growing areas in the past week with some more widespread showers that was seen. Figure 7 th below presents the cumulative rainfall for the 10-days ending the 16 of December. From the weather map below we see that most of the key growing areas did see some good rainfall amounts in the past 10-days. Figure 7: Cumulative rainfall for 10 days ending 16 Dec Looking at the weather forecast for the week ahead we see that slightly drier conditions are expected in the week ahead as the current conditions are expected to clear into this coming weekend. From the forecast we see that some more showers are possible in the eastern and northeastern parts of the country in the next few days but the central and western growing areas should experience drier conditions in the week ahead. Figure 8 below presents the nd cumulative rainfall forecast for the week ahead as well as the 2 week of the forecast. Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report “Together we make a difference” 4 FOCUS FOR THE WEEK US maize contracts posted some good gains in the past week with the spill over strength from the higher US wheat prices and some technical buying providing support. The break above $4.00/bushel could continue to provide some support. Reports that China has approved some GMO varieties and the strong ethanol demand point to a strong demand side which could continue to provide some support to US maize prices in the sessions ahead. South African maize prices also posted some gains in the past week but local prices underperformed compared to the US maize with the fact that the rand did come well off the highs limiting some of the gains in our market. The weather conditions has been mostly favourable in the month to date but slightly drier conditions are expected in the central and western parts of the country which could provide some underlying support. Also see the technical graphs below Safex March-15 white maize prices CME March-15 corn prices Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report “Together we make a difference” 5 Daily MAWH5 2014/03/31 - 2015/01/01 (JHB) Cndl, MAWH5, Trade Price 2014/12/17, 2 180.00, 2 188.00, 2 156.20, 2 170.00N/A, N/A SMA, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 100 2014/12/17, 1 914.83 SMA, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 40 2014/12/17, 2 016.55 SMA, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 9 2014/12/17, 2 135.44 Price ZAR T 2 160 2 130 2 100 2 070 2 040 2 010 1 980 1 950 1 920 1 890 1 860 1 830 1 800 1 770 1 740 Auto MACD, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential 2014/12/17, 51.69, 41.16 Value ZAR T Auto RSI, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2014/12/17, 71.821 Value ZAR T 30 Auto 31 07 14 22 April 2014 29 05 12 19 26 May 2014 02 09 17 23 June 2014 30 07 14 21 July 2014 28 04 11 18 25 August 2014 01 08 15 22 September 2014 29 06 13 20 27 October 2014 03 10 17 24 November 2014 01 08 15 22 29 December 2014 “Together we make a difference” 6 Daily CH5 2014/02/07 - 2015/01/06 (CHG) Cndl, CH5, Trade Price 2014/12/18, 408, 4091/ 2, 4071/ 4, 409 SMA, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 9 2014/12/18, 4017/ 8+ SMA, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 40 2014/12/18, 3885/ 8+ SMA, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 100 2014/12/18, 3737/ 8+ Price USc Bsh 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 410 409 7 401 400/ 8+ 5/ 390 388 8+ 380 3737/ 8+ 370 360 350 340 330 1/8 MACD, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential 2014/12/18, 71/ 8+, 55/ 8+ Value USc Bsh 1/8 RSI, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2014/12/18, 64.834 Value USc Bsh 30 Auto 10 18 24 Feb 14 03 10 17 24 Mar 14 31 07 14 21 Apr 14 28 05 12 19 May 14 27 02 09 16 23 Jun 14 30 07 14 21 Jul 14 28 04 11 18 25 Aug 14 02 08 15 22 Sep 14 29 06 13 20 Oct 14 27 03 10 17 24 01 Nov 14 08 15 22 29 Dec 14 05 “Together we make a difference” 7