Suntec REIT (SUN SP) Ushering In Phase 3 AEI Soon

Transcription

Results Review, 23 January 2015
Suntec REIT (SUN SP)
Buy (Maintained)
Property - REITS
Market Cap: USD3,757m
Target Price:
Price:
SGD2.11
SGD2.00
Macro
Risks
Ushering In Phase 3 AEI Soon
Growth
Value
Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS)
2.10
123
2.00
119
1.90
115
1.80
111
1.70
106
1.60
102
1.50
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
98
0
0
.
2
0
0
4Q14/FY14 results in line with DPU rising 0.6%/0.8% YoY to 9.328/9.400 .
0
cents, accounting for 28%/103% of our full-year estimates. Reiterate 0
BUY with a higher DDM-derived SGD2.11 TP (from SGD2.00, 5.5% 0
upside), implying a 10.1% total returns. Suntec City Phase 3 is
estimated to be 72% committed, (3Q14: 60%). Office spaces in Suntec
City remained fully occupied with an 8.3% increase in rent (SGD8.92
psf/month).

Dec-14
Oct-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14

Jan-14
Vol m
Price Close
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (SGD/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (SGD)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
22.2m/17.0m
-8.5
5.5
1.59 - 2.00
88
2,502
Raffles Investments Limited
ARA Asset Management
Limited
7.1
5.0
Schroders PLC
4.7


Share Performance (%)
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
2.0
2.0
11.1
7.8
25.8


2

.
2
0
.
2




Results in line. Suntec REIT’s 4Q14/FY14 DPU rose 0.6%/0.8% YoY to
9.328/9.400 cents, accounting for 28%/103% of our full-year estimate.
There was a 0.18 cent DPU top-out in 4Q14, higher than the 0.04 cent
paid out in 3Q14. Note that Suntec REIT received SGD147m in cash
proceeds from the sale of Chijmes in 1Q12. Since 1Q13, management
has topped up SGD53.5m. Financing cost inched up modestly 2.44%
from 2.42% in the quarter before while gearing was maintained at 35.5%.
Suntec City Phase 3 asset enhancement initiative (AEI) update. We
estimate that Suntec City Phase 3 occupancy rate reached 72% as of
Dec 2014 from 60% in the previous quarter. Overall AEI committed
occupancy (the entire Suntec City remaking) to date stands at 91.3%.
(3Q14: 86.0%). Rentals for Phase 3 were on the softer side, dragging
down overall committed passing rent to SGD12.27 psf/month from
SGD12.59 psf/month in 3Q14.
Office occupancy to remain high in coming years. As of end-Dec
2014, Suntec City office maintained its full occupancy, with leases for the
quarter secured at a higher average rent of SGD8.92 psf/month (3Q14:
SGD8.24 psf/month). We are confident that Suntec City office will
maintain its high occupancy despite South Beach Development’s (SBD)
completion in 2015, as SBD has already achieved 80-90% precommitment.
Near-term growth engine. We are optimistic on Suntec REIT’s AEI
efforts and remain confident that it will drive near-term DPU growth for
the counter, following the completion of all three phases at Suntec City
Mall. We forecast Suntec REIT’s DPU to grow at a CAGR of 3.7% over
the next three years. Reiterate BUY with a higher DDM-derived TP of
SGD2.11 (from SGD2.00), implying P/B ratio of one (cost of equity =
7.5%; TG = 3%).
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Dec-17F
Total turnover (SGDm)
234
282
379
396
404
Net property income (SGDm)
149
192
242
252
258
Reported net profit (SGDm)
382
316
277
294
295
Total distributable income (SGDm)
221
213
211
230
250
DPS (SGD)
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.10
Ong Kian Lin +65 6232 3895
DPS growth (%)
20.0
(12.2)
(1.5)
8.4
8.1
kianlin.ong@sg.oskgroup.com
Recurring P/E (x)
11.8
15.8
18.1
17.2
17.3
P/B (x)
Absolute
Relative
2.3
1.3
6.4
6.7
18.8
Shariah compliant
Forecasts and Valuations
0.94
0.94
0.95
0.95
0.94
Ivan Looi +65 6232 3841
Dividend Yield (%)
4.9
4.3
4.2
4.6
4.9
ivan.looi@sg.oskgroup.com
Return on average equity (%)
8.0
6.2
5.2
5.5
5.5
Return on average assets (%)
4.8
3.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Powered by EFATM Platform
1
23 January 2015
Results Review
Figure 1: Suntec REIT's 4Q14 results summary
(SGD m)
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
%QoQ
%YoY
Gross revenue
71.6
71.5
76.8
7.5
7.3
Operating expenses
(21.8)
(22.7)
(23.9)
4.9
9.2
NPI
49.8
48.8
53.0
8.7
6.5
Other income
Manager's fees
Trustee fees
Other expenses
Net income before financing cost & tax
5.7
(10.7)
(0.8)
(4.2)
39.8
6.0
(10.9)
(16.9)
(4.5)
22.5
4.9
(11.2)
(1.0)
(3.7)
42.1
(17.8)
2.9
(94.1)
(17.8)
86.9
(13.4)
4.7
25.6
(13.4)
5.8
Net financing costs
(13.8)
(9.3)
(11.2)
19.6
(18.8)
EBT
Share of profit of jointly controlled entities
Gains from revaluation/financial derivatives
Total return before tax
Tax
Total return - reported
Attributable to unitholders
Attributable to non-controlling interest
Total return (ex exceptionals)
Net income before share of jointly controlled entity
Add-back: Non tax deductibles
Income available for distribution
Capital distribution (Chijmes divestment)
Distributable income
Number of units ('m end of period)
DPU (SGD-cts)
NAV
Payout ratio (%)
NPI margin (%)
Source: OSK-DMG, Company data
26.0
125.3
92.6
244.0
(1.0)
243.0
240.5
2.5
150.3
26.0
28.2
54.2
4.0
58.2
2,271
2.56
2.13
107.4
69.5
13.2
14.4
0.8
28.4
(2.5)
25.9
32.7
(6.9)
25.1
13.2
44.1
57.3
1.0
58.3
2,502
2.33
2.06
101.7
68.2
30.9
94.5
94.6
220.0
(2.2)
217.8
215.7
2.1
123.2
30.9
29.1
60.1
4.5
64.6
2,506
2.58
2.12
107.5
69.0
134.6
556.0
12,003.3
675.8
(10.2)
742.1
558.9
nm
391.0
134.6
(33.9)
4.9
350.0
10.8
0.2
10.7
3.0
5.7 ppt
0.8 ppt
18.8
(24.6)
2.2
(9.8)
125.3
(10.4)
(10.3)
(15.2)
(18.1)
18.8
3.4
10.8
12.5
11.0
10.4
0.6
(0.8)
0.1 ppt
(0.5) ppt
Comments
Increase was mainly due to the opening
of Suntec Singapore and completion of
Phase 2 of the AEI in Suntec mall
Increased mainly due to higher convention
operating costs after the completion of P1
& 2 of AEI.
Increased mainly due to the new
opening of Suntec City mall (P2).
Lower mainly due to interest coupon
received for 177 Pacific Highway.
0.0 ppt
0.0 ppt
2
23 January 2015
Figure 2: Suntec REIT's FY14 results summary
(SGD m)
FY13
FY14
%Change
DMG
FY14F
% of FY14F Comments
Gross revenue
234.1
282.4
20.6
297.8
94.8
Operating expenses
(85.4)
(90.8)
6.3
(106.8)
85.0
NPI
148.7
191.6
28.9
191.1
100.3
Other income
Manager's fees
Trustee fees
Other expenses
Net income before financing cost & tax
20.1
(39.6)
(3.1)
(15.0)
111.1
19.3
(43.3)
(19.5)
(14.4)
133.8
(3.9)
9.2
525.6
(3.9)
20.5
10.0
(34.4)
(3.0)
(9.3)
154.4
193.5
125.7
655.6
155.0
86.7
Net financing costs
(55.3)
(44.8)
(18.9)
(44.7)
100.3
EBT
Share of profit of jointly controlled entities
Gains from revaluation/financial derivatives
Total return before tax
Tax
Total return - reported
Attributable to unitholders
Attributable to non-controlling interest
Total return (ex exceptionals)
Net income before share of jointly controlled entity
Add-back: Non tax deductibles
Income available for distribution
Capital distribution (Chijmes divestment)
Distributable income
Number of units ('m end of period)
DPU (SGD-cts)
NAV
Payout ratio (%)
NPI margin (%)
Source: OSK-DMG, Company data
55.8
171.7
149.9
377.3
4.7
382.0
364.4
17.6
232.2
55.8
136.4
192.2
19.0
211.2
2,271
9.33
2.13
109.9
63.5
88.9
139.1
94.6
322.7
(7.0)
315.7
317.4
(1.8)
221.0
88.9
130.9
219.8
10.5
230.3
2,506
9.40
2.12
104.8
67.9
59.4
(19.0)
(36.9)
(14.5)
nm
(17.4)
(12.9)
nm
(4.8)
59.4
(4.0)
14.4
(44.7)
9.1
10.4
0.8
(0.8)
(5.1) ppt
4.3 ppt
109.7
61.1
57.4
228.2
(1.1)
227.1
211.0
16.2
169.7
109.7
118.9
228.5
0.0
228.5
2,496
9.10
2.09
100.0
64.2
81.1
227.6
164.8
141.4
636.6
139.0
150.4
nm
130.2
81.1
110.1
96.2
nm
100.8
100.4
103.3
101.4
Increase was mainly due to the
opening of Suntec Singapore and
completion of Phase 2 of the AEI in
Suntec mall
Higher OPEX due to higher convention
operation costs following the completion of
the AEI at Suntec Singapore.
Increased mainly due to the new
opening of Suntec Singapore and
Suntec City mall (Phase 1&2).
Lower mainly due to interest coupon
received for 177 Pacific Highway.
Figure 3: Suntec REIT's TP based on dividend discount model
DDM
FY15F
FY16F
FY17F
DPU (SGD cts)
9.97
10.41
10.17
TP (SGD)
2.11
Current price (SGD)
2.00
Price upside (%)
5.5
Distribution yield (%)
Total return (%)
Terminal Value
222.67
4.6
10.05
Assumptions
Risk-free rate (%)
3.0
Beta
0.81
Cost of equity (%)
7.5
Terminal growth (%)
3
Source: OSK-DMG
3
23 January 2015
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (SGDm)
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Total turnover
234
282
379
396
404
Property operating expenses
(85)
(91)
(137)
(144)
(147)
Net property income
149
192
242
252
258
Management fees
(40)
(43)
(38)
(39)
(40)
(3)
(20)
(4)
(4)
Trust expenses
Operating EBIT
Depreciation of fixed assets
106
129
(4)
214
-
-
-
106
130
200
209
214
Net income from investments
310
237
124
115
126
16
2
3
31
18
Interest income
(55)
(45)
(50)
(58)
(60)
Pre-tax profit
377
323
278
298
297
Taxation
Profit after tax & minorities
Reported net profit
Adjustment for distributable income
Total distributable income
(1)
209
Operating EBITDA
Other recurring income
(0)
200
Dec-17F
5
382
(7)
(1)
(4)
(2)
316
277
294
295
295
382
316
277
294
(161)
(103)
(66)
(64)
(44)
221
213
211
230
250
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Dec-17F
106
129
200
209
214
0
1
-
-
(23)
Cash flow (SGDm)
Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
Change in working capital
(127)
(78)
(13)
(13)
Other operating cash flow
120
99
17
24
16
Operating cash flow
100
151
204
220
207
Interest received
57
45
50
58
60
Tax paid
(4)
(0)
(1)
(4)
Cash flow from operations
153
196
Capex
(189)
(96)
Other new investments
(117)
-
Other investing cash flow
(2)
252
274
265
(33)
(230)
(14)
(275)
-
-
84
31
63
51
Cash flow from investing activities
(222)
(66)
(245)
(179)
44
Dividends paid
(208)
(224)
(250)
(263)
(259)
(10)
Proceeds from issue of shares
316
(10)
(10)
Increase in debt
338
(186)
308
230
14
Other financing cash flow
(74)
(66)
(63)
(72)
(74)
Cash flow from financing activities
(5)
58
51
(160)
(16)
(115)
(329)
Cash at beginning of period
200
181
150
153
134
Total cash generated
(19)
(30)
(8)
(20)
(20)
19
(2)
(0)
0
0
134
114
Forex effects
Implied cash at end of period
200
150
141
4
23 January 2015
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (SGDm)
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Dec-17F
181
150
153
134
114
Accounts receivable
0
0
8
8
Other current assets
29
17
(0)
0
Total cash and equivalents
Total current assets
Total investments
Tangible fixed assets
8
-
210
166
161
142
122
8,109
8,433
8,819
9,134
9,237
3
3
3
3
3
Total non-current assets
8,112
8,436
8,822
9,137
9,240
Total assets
8,322
8,602
8,983
9,279
9,362
682
682
682
74
Short-term debt
772
-
Accounts payable
91
107
69
73
Other current liabilities
21
23
20
20
20
884
130
771
774
776
2,389
2,981
2,738
2,968
2,982
64
73
65
65
65
Total non-current liabilities
2,453
3,054
2,803
3,033
3,047
Total liabilities
3,337
3,184
3,574
3,807
3,823
Share capital
4,844
5,305
5,269
5,331
5,399
Shareholders' equity
4,844
5,305
5,269
5,331
5,399
141
113
141
141
141
0
0
0
Total current liabilities
Total long-term debt
Other liabilities
Minority interests
Other equity
0
(0)
Total equity
4,985
5,418
5,410
5,472
5,539
Total liabilities & equity
8,322
8,602
8,983
9,279
9,362
Key Ratios (SGD)
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Dec-17F
Revenue growth (%)
(10.6)
20.6
34.2
4.5
2.1
Net profit growth (%)
(10.2)
(17.4)
(12.3)
6.2
0.3
EPS growth (%)
(10.9)
(25.2)
(12.8)
5.5
(0.3)
Bv per share growth (%)
3.1
(0.4)
(1.3)
0.6
0.6
163.2
111.8
73.0
74.2
72.9
Return on average assets (%)
4.8
3.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
Return on average equity (%)
8.0
6.2
5.2
5.5
5.5
Net debt to equity (%)
59.8
52.3
60.4
64.2
64.1
DPS
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.10
Recurrent cash flow per share
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.11
0.10
Net profit margin (%)
5
23 January 2015
SWOT Analysis
 Near-term DPU growth following Suntec City’s
SGD410m asset enhancement
 Straits Trading
Company has a
1.4% stake in
Suntec REIT
and a 20.1%
stake in parent
ARA. Potential
influence on
Suntec REIT is
uncertain at this
juncture
 Beneficiary of rising office rentals
 Further yieldaccretive
acquisitions
 Better-thanexpected leases
signed at
Suntec City
Phase 3
 Its Australian portfolio lacks scale, with a single asset
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
-13%
8
-17%
6
-22%
4
-26%
2
-31%
0
-35%
P/E (x) (lhs)
EPS growth (rhs)
7%
1.0
6%
5%
0.9
4%
3%
0.9
2%
1%
0.9
P/B (x) (lhs)
Jan-17
10
8%
Jan-16
-8%
9%
1.0
Jan-15
12
10%
Jan-14
-4%
1.0
Jan-13
14
Jan-17
1%
Jan-16
16
Jan-15
6%
Jan-14
10%
18
Jan-13
20
0%
Return on average equity (rhs)
Company Profile
Suntec REIT is a REIT established with the objective of investing in income-producing real estate properties, which are used primarily
for retail and office purposes.
6
23 January 2015
Recommendation Chart
Price Close
2.00
1.78
2.10
2.10
2.10
1.80
1.80
1.52
1.51
1.51
1.72
1.74
1.71
1.56
1.90
1.76
Recommendations & Target Price
na
2.10
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
Buy
0.90
Jan-10
Neutral
Sell
Apr-11
Trading Buy
Aug-12
Take Prof it
Not Rated
Nov-13
Source: OSK-DMG, Bloomberg
Date
Recommendation
Target Price
Price
2014-10-21
Buy
2.00
1.80
2013-07-22
Buy
1.78
1.57
2013-05-20
Neutral
2.10
1.90
2013-04-26
Neutral
2.10
1.97
2013-04-08
Buy
2.10
1.89
2013-01-23
Neutral
1.80
1.72
2013-01-09
Buy
1.80
1.70
2012-12-03
Buy
1.80
1.60
2012-10-29
Buy
1.80
1.63
2012-07-19
Neutral
1.51
1.47
Source: OSK-DMG, Bloomberg
7
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading
Buy:
Share
may10%
exceed
over 12
themonths
next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Buy:
Share
price
mayprice
exceed
over15%
the next
Neutral: Buy:
ShareShare
price price
may fall
within
the 15%
rangeover
of +/the next
12 months
Trading
may
exceed
the10%
nextover
3 months,
however
longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Take Profit:
Target
been attained.
accumulate
lower
Neutral:
Share
priceprice
may has
fall within
the rangeLook
of +/-to10%
over theatnext
12 levels
months
Sell:
may
fall has
by more
10% over
next 12 months
Take Share
Profit:price
Target
price
beenthan
attained.
Look the
to accumulate
at lower levels
Not Rated:
is not
regular
coverage
Sell:
Share Stock
price may
fallwithin
by more
thanresearch
10% over
the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
Disclosure & Disclaimer
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This
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does
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Suntec REIT (SUN SP) Ushering In Phase 3 AEI Soon

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