The Scottish Question, Six Months On

The Scottish Question, Six Months On
Ailsa Henderson and James Mitchell
University of Edinburgh
Transatlantic Seminar Series
27 March, 2015
What do we know about referendums?
• Limited theorising of referendum preferences (Hobolt)
• Often take place in low cue, low information environments (Franklin;
Hobolt) but variation (Leduc; deVreese and Semetko)
• Self-determination referendums an exception
• High cue, high information environments
• Emotive, binary issue
• Raises the stakes for losers’ consent
• So not one ‘Scottish question’, but three
• Who voted No and who voted Yes?
• Did the campaign matter?
• What are the implications of the referendum vote for Scottish public life?
Scottish Referendum Study
• ESRC funded (Ailsa Henderson, Rob Johns, Chris Carman, James
Mitchell)
• Question completion for waves 1 and 2
• 3 wave internet survey, fieldwork YouGov (split sample BES, SES)
• Wave 1: 22 August-17 September (rolling cross section)
• Wave 2: 22 -26 September (small and large questionnaire)
• Wave 3: March 2015
• Sample size wave 1: 4849
• Sample size wave 2: 3719 (across 2 surveys)
1. Who voted No (and who voted
Yes)?
Demographics I
No
BIRTH
PLACE
OUK
RELIG DENOM
OTHER
CATHOLIC
47.3%
MEN
27.9%
52.7%
51.3%
48.7%
59.1%
40.9%
44.0%
CHURCH OF ENGLAND
WOMEN
42.9%
72.1%
PROTESTANT
NONE
SEX
57.1%
RUK
SCOTLAND
Yes
56.0%
81.6%
45.9%
56.6%
46.8%
18.4%
54.1%
43.4%
53.2%
Demographics: Age
No
70+
60-69
50-59
40-49
Yes
65.7%
56.3%
52.9%
49.4%
34.3%
43.7%
47.1%
50.6%
30-39
46.1%
53.9%
16-29
46.0%
54.0%
Demographics: How younger people voted
No
70+
65.7%
60-69
47.1%
49.4%
46.1%
44.8%
20-24
16-19
43.7%
52.9%
40-49
25-29
34.3%
56.3%
50-59
30-39
Yes
50.6%
53.9%
55.2%
48.6%
37.5%
51.4%
62.5%
Demographics II
INCOME
QUARTILES
EDUCAT
ION TENURE CLASS
No
WORKING
46.4%
MIDDLE
53.6%
58.3%
OWNER-OCCUPIER
SOCIAL RENTER
Yes
41.7%
64.6%
38.1%
35.4%
61.9%
DEGREE
52.9%
47.1%
NO DEGREE
52.3%
47.7%
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
43.6%
57.6%
55.5%
53.2%
56.4%
42.4%
44.5%
46.8%
National identity and Leadership
LIKE
SALMOND
NATIONAL IDENTITY
No
BRITISH NOT SCOTTISH
90.0%
MORE BRITISH THAN SCOTTISH
12.4%
81.4%
MORE SCOTTISH THAN BRITISH
18.6%
39.6%
60.4%
11.4%
88.6%
0-3
79.1%
4-6
7-10
10.0%
87.6%
EQUALLY SCOTTISH AND BRITISH
SCOTTISH NOT BRITISH
Yes
20.9%
36.1%
7.6%
63.9%
92.4%
Perceived costs of a “No” vote
IF UNION:
SPENDING CUTS
IF UNION: WEATH
GAP
No
Yes
VERY UNLIKELY
81.8%
UNLIKELY
94.0%
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
6.0%
79.5%
LIKELY
VERY LIKELY
18.2%
20.5%
49.3%
50.7%
12.2%
87.8%
VERY UNLIKELY
88.9%
11.1%
UNLIKELY
90.0%
10.0%
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
73.3%
LIKELY
VERY LIKELY
26.7%
31.3%
9.9%
68.7%
90.1%
Perceived costs of a “Yes” vote
IF INDEPENDENCE:
EU MEMBERSHIP
IF INDEPENDENT:
KEEP POUND
No
Yes
VERY UNLIKELY
96.3%
3.7%
UNLIKELY
95.6%
4.4%
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
66.1%
LIKELY
VERY LIKELY
38.4%
90.7%
95.0%
UNLIKELY
5.0%
84.8%
NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY
VERY LIKELY
61.6%
9.3%
VERY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
33.9%
15.2%
47.1%
22.8%
9.7%
52.9%
77.2%
90.3%
Modelling vote choice after the referendum
Age
.036
Age square
.000
Female
-.472
Degree
rUK
.087
-.971
oUK
-.579
Owner-occupier
-.559
Social renter
.195
Protestant
-.585
Catholic
Church of England
.066
-1.014
Other Religion
-.258
Lowest income quartile
.481
Highest income quartile
-1.200 -1.000
-.186
-.800
-.600
-.400
-.200
.000
.200
.400
.600
2. Did the campaign matter?
How might we evaluate the impact of the campaign?
• Timing of decision to vote
• Vote switching
• High levels of knowledge and engagement
• Citing campaign issues/events in reasons for voting Yes or No
Capacity for campaign influence: Boredom, then excitement
Timing of vote decision
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
I’ve known all
Once the
A year or so ago A few months ago During the last few I haven’t decided
weeks
along how I would referendum date
yet
vote
was announced (in
March 2013)
No
Yes
Vote switching
• Very few in dataset
• 48 from Yes to No
• 45 from No to Yes
Impact of the debates
70
64.4
60
50
40
29.1
30
20
10
5.1
1.4
0
Didn't have any impact - my mind was
already made up
Made me think but didn't change my
mind
Got me seriously thinking abou the
other side
Changed my mind completely
The Vow: More likely to expect further devolution?
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
week 1
week 2
More powers likely
week 3
more powers unlikely
week 4
Impact of campaign on vote choice (SRS week 1)
Age
Presbyterian
Female
Social housing
Certainty consequences
Scottish not British
If NO:
More powers
Rich gap wider
IF YES:
Economy worse
Keep pound
Join EU
Rich gap smaller
Better off
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Impact of campaign on vote choice (SRS weeks 1 & 4)
Age
Presbyterian
Female
Social housing
Certainty consequences
Scottish not British
If NO:
More powers
Rich gap wider
IF YES:
Economy worse
Keep pound
Join EU
Rich gap smaller
Better off
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Stated reasons for voting No (SRS w2 n=421)
35
30
29.5
27.8
26.3
25
20
15
10
5.3
5
5.2
3.4
2.7
0
Because I feel British Beause there were too Because independence I wanted to vote 'Yes' Because I don't trust Because Scotland is Something else/don't
and believe in the
many unasnwered
would have made
but in the end it
Alex Salmond
going to get the extra
know
Union
questions
Scotland worse off seemed a bit too risky
powers I want anyway
economically
Stated reasons for voting Yes (SRS w2, n=389)
30
25
24.8
24.1
21.8
20
20.1
15
10
5
4.7
2.9
1.7
0
So that Scotland
Because the whole Because independence Because it would have Because of the current Because it would have Something else/don't
always gets the
Westminster system is is the natural state of made Scotland better coalition government helped to protect
know
governments it votes
rotten
nations like Scotland
off economically
at Westminster
public services
for
Reasons for switching from No to Yes (SRS w2,
n=40)
• Anything to do with lack of trust in Westminster/Tories/UKIP 44%
• “I do not trust Westminster (and I’m English)”
• “The last minute promises that came from Westminster didn’t sit well with
me and I feel it was unconstitutional to change the goalposts so late in the
after a two year campaign”
• Negativity of no side 29%
• “Scaremongering by No campaign”
• Change/make a difference/social democracy 15%
• Once in a lifetime opportunity for me and my family”
• Other 6%
Reasons for switching from Yes to No (SRS w2,
n=41)
• Economic risk/uncertainty 48%
• “My pension, I wanted to be sure that I was safe”
• Other Risk/uncertainty 18%
• “Decided was too great a risk. Heart said yes but head said No”
• Promise of more powers 10%
• “The promise of devo max which is a transition to home rule”
• Alex Salmond/Aggressive nature of Yes campaign 10%
• “The ‘Yes’ campaign was alarmingly dishonest and aggressive”
• Other 15%
Some voters hold different people responsible for the fact that
the Yes side lost the election. What about you? Which of the
following do you think is most responsible for the fact that the
Yes side lost?
45
41.3
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
17
11.8
11.2
7.9
4.7
5.3
0.9
0
The Westminster The press/BBC for
The Scottish
The banks and Better Together for Yes Scotland for a
leaders for
bias towards No electorate for losing other businesses
a negative
poor camapign
misleading voters
its nerve
for warning about
campaign
about more powers
the consequences
of a Yes
Other reason
Don't know/none
3. What are the implications of
the referendum vote for public
life?
How might we evaluate the implications?
• Losers’ consent
• Elevated levels of public engagement
• Political interest
• Political participation
Losers’ consent (3 day rolling average)
Losers’ consent (II)
100%
6
5
6
10
8
5
13
16
27
49
Don't know
27
Very dissatisfied
Little dissatisfied
50%
Fairly satisfied
55
46
27
47
15
0%
12
15
No
Yes
3
Yes
Satisfaction with UK democracy
8
No
Satisfaction with Scottish democracy
Very satisfied
Losers’ consent vs winners’ consent
Satisfaction with Democracy in Scotland
Male (women)
Age (0-1)
Univ degree (non)
Income (0-1)
Left-Right (0-1)
Loser UK (winner)
Yes vote (no)
Lab-Cons-LibDem (SNP)
Happy result (0-1)
Pol efficacy (0-1)
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
In red, statisticallly significant at 90%
0.50
1.00
1.50
Political interest (pre referendum)
9.0
8.4
8.0
7.0
7.1
6.5
5.6
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
UK politics
Scottish politics
International politics
Referendum
Levels of political interest over the course of
the campaign
10.0
9.0
8.1
8.0
7.0
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.9
6.5
7.0
7.3
8.2
8.6
7.3
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
UK politics
Scottish politics
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Referendum
Week 4
8.8
This question is about the effect of the referendum campaign on the Scottish
public’s involvement and interest in politics. Which of these statements best
describes your own situation?
60.00%
50.60%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
23.50%
20.00%
13.40%
12.40%
10.00%
0.00%
I haven’t noticed it making I’ve noticed others getting
any difference to anyone more involved but it hasn’t
made any difference to me
It’s got me a bit more
involved
It’s got me a lot more
involved
This question is about the effect of the referendum campaign on the
Scottish public’s involvement and interest in politics. Which of these
statements best describes your own situation?
70.0%
60.6%
60.0%
50.0%
39.9%
40.0%
28.6%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
14.8%
21.8%
18.9%
9.8%
5.8%
0.0%
I haven’t noticed it
I’ve noticed others
making any difference getting more involved
to anyone
but it hasn’t made any
difference to me
No
It’s got me a bit more
involved
Yes
It’s got me a lot more
involved
What do you think will happen to levels of political involvement –
both your own and in the Scottish public as a whole – once the
referendum is over?
The Scottish public
40.80%
Yourself
49.00%
54.00%
0%
10%
20%
Will stay more involved
30%
10.10%
36.80%
40%
50%
60%
Will go back to normal
70%
9.20%
80%
Don’t know
90%
100%
The Scottish public
What do you think will happen to levels of political involvement – both your
own and in the Scottish public as a whole – once the referendum is over?
Yes
No
53.6%
37.1%
16.7%
9.3%
71.5%
Yes
11.8%
25.8%
8.5%
Yourself
65.7%
No
0.0%
31.9%
20.0%
57.6%
40.0%
Will stay more involved
60.0%
10.5%
80.0%
Will go back to normal
100.0%
Don’t know
120.0%
Extra data
What do Scots want?
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Power over new policy areas
More power over existing areas
More influence over central
decision making
SNP membership
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0