Morning CafÃ©

Transcription

Morning CafÃ©

Morning Café
Issue: 1,238
May 05th, 2015
VN-Index
Volume: 112.5m
Value: VND1,774bn
-17.32 (-3.08%)
VN30-Index
576.52
HNX-Index
79.95
Volume: 44.7m
Value: VND867bn
-
-16.63 (-2.80%)
Volume: 59.2m
Value: VND646bn
700
Summary
545.08
May 05, 2015Morning Strategy
-2.8 (-3.38%)
VN-Index
VN30-Index
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
M-14 J-14 S-14 N-14 J-15 M-15
450
95
HNX-Index
90
85
80
75
70
65
M-14 J-14
S-14 N-14 J-15 M-15
May 05, 2015 Morning Strategy
VNM: AGM note
Technical View
Fixed income
The VN-Index dropped suddenly by 3.08% (17.32 points), breaking through the
nearest technical support at 560, and closing at a daily low of 545.08, on
increased market liquidity. 29 out of 30 of the VN30 stocks fell yesterday,
including IJC and OGC, which dropped to their floor prices. Among the most
heavily traded tickers, FLC and BID also fell to their floor prices. GAS, PVD, CTG,
VCB etc. all fell by 4-6%. In other words, market sentiment was bearish, and was
then further scared by the sudden market movement. Foreign investors
continued accumulating stock, with a net buying value of approximately US$ 11
million. However, at the end of trading, when domestic investors increased
supply and pushed down prices, these investors did not support the market,
though stocks became more attractive.
The sudden market drop might be because local investors overreacted on
China’s Hung Vuong Oil Rig which moved to the East Sea. Even though the oil rig
is still far away from Vietnam’s sea area, this news remind local investors on the
market extreme condition exactly 1 year ago and created the market panic.
Local investors have to get used with these news as tensions with China will
continue in future and we still have to build our economy.
Besides, there are more fundamental issues that should be noted. Firstly, there
is rising concern about NPLs in the banking sector, as the Government Inspector
asked the SBV to monitor Bitexco’s VND 1.7 trillion loan, and an SBV report
showed that NPLs rose to 3.5% in Jan 2015. Secondly, banks adjusted the
USD/VND exchange rate up by 20-30 points after the long holiday, though the
official and free market exchange rates were still within the legal limits.
However, the government’s request that the SBV look into a mechanism
allowing the Treasury to ‘borrow’ from the national foreign currency reserve
might be the most concerned issue. In any case, these issues are not new and
cannot entirely explain the sudden market drop.
From a technical perspective, with this sudden drop, the VN-Index has reversed
its uptrend and is heading to the next technical support at 540 – 536, which is
not very strong. If the VN-Index continues down past this support, the next
target will be close to 500, a 12M low. With the sudden drop, margin call
activities might return in upcoming trading sessions. Even though the current
retail margin outstanding might be relatively low, margin calls might have a
serious effect on some stocks. With the high risk and great uncertainty, short-
ACBS Research Center
Tel: (+84)(8) 3823 4159 (ext: 325)
Website: http://www.acbs.com.vn
Bloomberg : ACBS <GO>
Page1
Morning Café
term investors might want to stay out or get out of the market. For long-term
investors, we do not see any reason to sell at this time.
Ms. Anh Le CFA, FRM
anhln@acbs.com.vn
Company/Sector News and Comments
VNM: AGM note
We attended Vinamilk JSC’s (HSX: VNM) AGM in late April. Here are some key points:

In 2014, VNM delivered VND34,977bn in net revenue (c.$1.64bn; +13% YoY), VND7,613bn in EBT ($357m; -5% YoY) and
VND6,068bn in EAT (c.$285m; -7% YoY), meeting 98% and 101% of its full-year targets respectively. 2014 EPS was
VND6,068. Although generally outperforming its 5-year targets, these growth rates are down from previous years, due to
a combination of intense competition, rising selling expenses, turbulent raw material prices, the government’s price cap
for infant milk and the company’s swelling size. However, the good news is that the company’s effort to secure its position
in Vietnam’s dairy market seems to have worked, as it has expanded its market share to 51% of the liquid milk segment
and 24% for powdered milk.

In 2014, VNM put two more farms in Ha Tinh and Thanh Hoa into operation, raising the number of farms it owns to 7,
with approximately 11,000 cows. In addition, VNM continued to expand cooperation with farmers, who own another
77,000 head.

2015 business plan: Although the tougher business environment may endure, in our opinion, 2015 will likely be a better
year as global raw material prices will calm down. VNM targets net revenue of VND38,424bn (+10% YoY), EBT of
VND8,229bn (+8% YoY) and EAT of VND6,830bn (+12.6% YoY (this is higher than EBT growth because of some tax
incentives from new factories, according to the company)). $3bn in revenue in 2017 is still the company’s goal.

Regarding the 2015 dividend plan, the company has scheduled a first interim dividend payment of VND2,000 cash per
share in Sep 2015. A subsequent payment will take place in May 2016. Also, a bonus share issuance at a 5:1 ratio is
planned for 3Q2015.
Ms. Chi Luong
chiltk@acbs.com.vn
Tel: (+84)(8) 3823 4159 (ext: 325)
Page2
Morning Café
Technical View
The VN30 index dropped dramatically yesterday, after bad news came out of the East Sea, even while trading volume increased
significantly, which suggests that the buying pressure is still strong. The short-term market trend is now rather unclear, however,
the index may have a minor rebounding to the weak resistance at 585 points before settling on a trend.
Mr. Quyen Luong
quyenlbn@acbs.com.vn
Tel: (+84)(8) 3823 4159 (ext: 325)
Page3
Morning Café
Fixed Income
Interbank market
Tenor
O/N
1W
2W
1M
2M
3M
6M
9M
1 Yr
Bid (%)
3.700
4.200
4.340
4.520
4.600
4.620
4.720
4.820
4.920
Ask (%)
4.160
4.480
4.820
5.120
5.040
5.060
5.160
5.360
5.460
Average (%)
3.930
4.340
4.580
4.820
4.820
4.840
4.940
5.090
5.190
DoD Change (%)
0.674
0.569
0.512
0.352
0.150
0.090
0.140
-0.135
-0.052
WoW Change (%)
-0.920
-0.410
-0.110
0.170
0.155
0.170
0.270
0.105
0.195
SBV open market operation
Tenor
7D
28D
56D
91D
Transaction Type
Reverse Repos
Sell Outrights
Sell Outrights
Sell Outrights
Value (VND bn)
1,000
1,000
990
Yield (%)
5.000
3.500
3.900
DoD Change (%)
0.000
0.000
0.000
WoW Change (%)
0.000
-
(Last updated on May 04th, 2015)
VBMA government bond yield fixing
Tenor
1 Yr
2 Yr
3 Yr
4 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
Yield to Maturity (%)
5.045
5.267
5.408
5.604
5.800
6.330
6.695
DoD Change (%)
0.015
0.052
0.022
0.038
0.054
0.140
0.190
WoW Change (%)
-0.155
-0.148
-0.102
-0.172
-0.241
0.026
0.095
MoM Change (%)
0.327
0.342
0.342
0.334
0.326
0.245
0.260
Secondary government bond market
Tenor
1 Yr
2 Yr
3 Yr
3-5 Yr
5 Yr
10 Yr
Value (VND bn)
486
1,286
116
275
401
201
Yield to Maturity (%)
5.008
5.221
5.850
5.873
5.762
6.630
DoD Change (%)
0.023
0.550
0.253
-0.152
-
WoW Change (%)
-0.062
-0.061
0.450
-0.208
-
Comment
On the Secondary market, total outright transaction volume reached VND 2,766 billion, while repo transactions achieved VND
3,117 billion at a rate range of 3.8%-4.7% for a 14-93-day tenor.
Ms. Ngoc Ngo
ngocntm@acbs.com.vn
Tel: (+84)(8) 3823 4159 (ext: 325)
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Morning Café
Event Calendar
Today’s events
Ticker
SHN
Execution Date
-
Event
2015 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Up-coming events
Ticker
PCG
Ex-rights Date
05/06/2015
Execution Date
05/20/2015
Event
Dividend payment of VND 400/share for 2014
DHT
05/06/2015
05/22/2015
Dividend payment of VND 1,000/share for 2014
HCM
05/06/2015
05/27/2015
2nd dividend payment of VND 1,600/share for 2014
CAN
05/06/2015
05/29/2015
TCT
05/06/2015
05/29/2015
CLL
05/06/2015
06/01/2015
BBC
05/06/2015
06/06/2015
TJC
05/06/2015
06/25/2015
TCT
05/06/2015
06/29/2015
CLL
05/06/2015
-
1 for 10 bonus issue
CTI
05/06/2015
-
SJD
05/06/2015
-
SRA
05/06/2015
-
TJC
05/06/2015
-
VFG
05/07/2015
05/22/2015
3rd dividend payment of VND 1,500/share for 2014
DHA
05/07/2015
05/28/2015
TVD
07/05/2015
01/06/2015
BID
05/08/2015
05/22/2015
DHG
05/08/2015
05/26/2015
CT6
05/08/2015
05/28/2015
DRL
05/08/2015
05/28/2015
Additional dividend payment of VND 1,500/share for 2014 and 2015
HPG
05/08/2015
05/28/2015
TVS
05/08/2015
06/05/2015
HPG
05/08/2015
-
2 for 10 stock dividend payment for 2014
HPG
05/08/2015
-
3 for 10 bonus issue
SLS
05/08/2015
-
TMC
05/12/2015
05/26/2015
VPK
05/12/2015
05/26/2015
3rd dividend payment of VND 400/share for 2014 and 1st dividend
payment of VND 200/share for 2015
KAC
05/12/2015
05/29/2015
VHL
05/12/2015
05/29/2015
CDC
05/12/2015
06/16/2015
HDA
05/12/2015
07/31/2015
HDA
05/12/2015
-
TDW
05/13/2015
05/29/2015
1st dividend payment of VND 1,200/share for 2014
GTA
05/13/2015
06/08/2015
Tel: (+84)(8)3823 4159 (ext: 325)
Page5
Morning Café
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anhln@acbs.com.vn
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ngocntm@acbs.com.vn
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Morning Café
Disclaimer
Analyst Certification(s)
We, the author(s) of this report, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about
any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Important Disclosures
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routine business. ACBS's proprietary trading accounts may have a position in such companies’ securities. As a result, the investor should be
aware that ACBS may have a conflict of interest from time to time.
ACBS produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis,
and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of
research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.
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Morning CafÃ©

Transcription

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