Belo Horizonte Threats and Uncertainties
Transcription
Belo Horizonte Threats and Uncertainties
Belo Horizonte Threats and Uncertainties Belo Horizonte, October 2006 Urban Waters in Belo Horizonte Belo Horizonte (BH)is the capital of the State of Minas Gerais, which in economic terms (gross product) is the third among the 26 Brazilian states. The city lies at 20° South latitude and 44° West longitude (Figure 1) and has an altitude of 750 to 1,300 meters. It is located in a mountainous region of tropical soils that originated from the decomposition of metamorphic rock. Tropical highlands weather predominates in this area, with average yearly rainfall of 1,500 mm and average yearly temperature of 26oC. The rainy season lasts from October to March, when 90% of the total yearly rainfall occurs. The highest monthly average rainfall (315mm) takes place in December. Typical rainfall intensities are also relatively high (e.g.: 200 mm/h in the case of a 10-year return period event with 5 minutes duration; 70 mm/h for the 1h and 50-year return period event). Mean relative humidity reaches 50% during winter and 75% in summer. Figure 1 – Location map of Belo Horizonte (Nascimento et al, 1999) BH has 2,227,400 inhabitants with a population density of 6,900 inhabitants/km2. It is a planned city, built in 1898 to become the capital of the state. The total area of the municipality is 330 km2. BH is inserted into a metropolitan area; the RMBH (Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Area), gathering 33 distinct municipalities, with an area of 9,179 km2 and 3,900,000 inhabitants. The Belo Horizonte territory locates at two main catchments (Arrudas creek and Onca creek catchments), each representing at about 50% of the total municipal area (Figure 2). Part of those catchments locates at neighbourhood municipalities: Contagem, upstream of Belo Horizonte, and Sabará and Santa Luzia, downstream of Belo Horizonte. There are no rivers in the municipal territory, although Arrudas and Onça are direct tributaries of the Velhas River, with a total drainage area of about 40,000 km2, which itself is the tributary of the Sao Francisco River, the longest one entirely within Brazilian territory (approximately 600,000 km2 of drainage area). 2 Figure 2 – Arrudas and Onça creek catchments and the Belo Horizonte municipality borders The water supply system (dinking water) connects 99.7% of BH residents with an average supply rate of 286 litters per inhabitant/day (Table 1). The water supply system presents high quality standards in operational as well as in water quality terms. 3 Table 1 – Water supply at Belo Horizonte: basic figures Number of inhabitants 2,277,402 Population connected to the water supply system (inhabitants) 2,271,059 Percentage of inhabitants connected to the water supply system (%) 99.7 Number of connections 469,058 Number of economies connected to the water supply system 802,647 Length of the water supply network (km) 5,113 Percentage of connections equipped with flow meters (%) 98.8 Sources: COPASA and SNIS – Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS, 2001) Surface sources predominate in the BH water supply system (Table 2). There are four main sources, namely: • Velhas (Velhas River Basin) with a capacity of 6.75 m3/s; • Manso (reservoir, maximum storage: 121 hm3) with a capacity of 4.2 m3/s; • Serra Azul (reservoir, maximum storage: 93 hm3) with a capacity of 2.6 m3/s; • Vargem das Flores (reservoir, maximum storage: 44 hm3) with a capacity of 1.2 m3/s. Manso and Serra Azul are located at about 60 km from BH. Velhas and Vargem das Flores are relatively closer. Vargem das Flores, Serra Azul and Rio Manso withdraw water from tributaries to the Paraopeba River. The Paraopeba river basin has a total surface of 14,000 km2 and the river is also a tributary of the Sao Francisco River. The other systems are located at the Velhas river basin. Table 2 – Production of drinking water for Belo Horizonte and its metropolitan region Water supply system Full capacity Average production (2005) (m3/s) (m3/s) Production for the BH municipality (m3/s) (%)* Ibirité system 0.45 0.322 0.177 55 Morro Redondo system 0.75 0.543 0.750 100 Água Bruta Barreiro system 0.20 0.030 0.200 100 Água Bruta Catarina system 0.17 0.110 0.170 100 Rio das Velhas system 6.75 4.922 4.233 86 Vargem das Flores system 1.20 1.009 0.252 25 Serra Azul system 2.60 1.500 0.435 29 Rio Manso system 4.20 3.427 1.371 40 16.32 11.863 7.588 64 Total Source of data: COPASA MG * Percentage of the RMBH water supply full capacity ascribed to the Belo Horizonte municipality. All the systems are interconnected and supply not only BH but also most of the municipalities gathered into the Metropolitan zone. 4 In BH, about 92% of population is connected to the wastewater sewerage system but there is a lack of interceptor pipelines and wastewater treatment facilities (Tables 3, 4 and 5). There are two relatively recent wastewater treatment plants in operation, the Arrudas WWTP (Figure 3) and the Onça WWTP, with a total capacity to treat 4.0 m3/s. In the future, those WWTP will have their total treatment capacity increased to 8.1 m3/s and will then be able to treat almost 100% of the total wastewater flow generated at the Arrudas and Onça catchments, including wastewater drained from Contagem municipal area located upstream in both catchments. Table 3 – Belo Horizonte wastewater system: basic figures Population connected to the sewerage system (inhabitants) 2,223,943 Percentage of inhabitants connected to the water supply system (%) 91.7 Number of connections 466,458 Length of the water sewerage (km) 3,806 Percentage of treated wastewater volume in respected to total wastewater volume (%) 38.0 Source: COPASA (www.copasa.com.br, 2006) Table 4 – WWTP at Belo Horizonte Wastewater Treatment Plant Treatment Process Operational capacity (m3/s) Arrudas (secondary) Conventional activated sludge 2.25 (1st stage) 4.50 (2nd stage) Onça (secondary) Upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors 1.80 (1st stage) 3.60 (2st stage) Pilar/Olhos d'Água (primary) UASB reactor 0.017 m3/s Pampulha Physico-chemical and flotation 0.75 m3/s Table 5 – Interceptor pipelines in Belo Horizonte Lengh of interceptors Required Existing To be built Catchments Total Arrudas (km) Onça (km) Velhas (km) (km) 278 96 182 301 161 140 6 0 6 585 257 328 Source: GGSAN (2004) and COPASA (www.copasa.com.br). 5 Figure 3 – View of the Arrudas WWTP (Papiri and Raverai, 2005) In Belo Horizonte as well as in all the BH metropolitan area, a separated sewerage system is adopted, although illicit inter-connections between wastewater and stormwater networks prevail, resulting in heavily polluted receiving bodies in the urban area and downstream the city (Velhas River). Another source of water pollution by wastewater is the lack of interceptor pipelines (Figure 4) as part of the main sewerage system (Table 5). Therefore, improvements on urban creeks, detention ponds, wetlands, and in the Velhas River water quality will require important investments in wastewater interception. Alternatively, a new approach, which may combine the existing end-of-pipe WWTP with decentralised treatment facilities, may be adopted. Figure 4 – Pollution of receiving bodies by wastewater due to lack of interceptors 6 Another point under evaluation by the BH municipality is the possibility of keeping combined systems in certain areas where in fact this approach has been informally adopted (e.g.: in many of the shantytowns). Embracing such an approach will require improvements on those existing systems in order to eliminate continuous outflows in receiving waters (Figure 5) and to employ modern solutions for the reduction of CSO (e.g.: retention structures). Figure 5 – Creeks heavily polluted by wastewater and solid waste 7 In Brazil, as stated by the federal legislation, water supply and sanitation are public services under municipal responsibility. In BH, COPASA, a state company1, provides those services, by concession. Since its creation in the 60s till the end of the 90s, COPASA, like all the other Brazilian state water utilities, had been in charge of planning, operation, control and regulation of the BH water supply and the wastewater systems. Recently, BH municipality decided to recover its role on water supply and sanitation planning and regulation, a new policy that led to modifications on the municipal legislation for the sector (e.g.: Municipal law 8260/2001 stating the municipal policy on water supply and sanitation) as well as on the concession rules (e.g.: the Cooperation Agreement between COPASA and the BH municipality, from November 2002, for the provision of drinking water and sanitation). As one of the outcomes of those political changes, the municipality became shareowner of the COPASA state utility (Municipal law 8754/2004). Further than the concession contract amendments, other instruments and institutional improvements were set up by the BH municipality in order to allow the development and implementation of a comprehensive municipal policy for drinking water and sanitation: • The Municipal “Saneamento” Committee (COMUSA), composed by municipal staff and stakeholder representatives, having as main purpose the statement of a water resources management policy for the municipality (“saneamento” means, in Portuguese, drinking water + wastewater +stormwater + solid waste); • The Municipal “Saneamento” Fund, stated with the purpose of contributing to finance actions on water supply and sanitation at BH (Decree 11289/2003); • The Water Supply and Sanitation Strategic Plan; and • The Municipal Conferences on “Saneamento”, an instrument of intense public participation on the decisions related to the water supply and sanitation policy. Stormwater management has been entirely under the responsibility of the BH municipality since the city foundation. Traditional storm water systems prevail in the city, although experiences with detention ponds exist since the 50s. There are at about 4,300 km of roads all of them equipped with gutters, inlets etc. The municipal database on drainage infrastructure keeps details about 64,000 inlets (gullies), 11,500 manholes, 1,100 outflow structures (outfalls), and almost 770 km of stormwater sewers. There are some 700 km of perennial creeks in the municipal area. Part of those creeks have been lined, most of them as culvert concrete channels. The length of lined channels reaches near to 200 km (Figures 6 and 7). The creek lining policy, which prevailed up to the 90s, was mainly justified by the following rationale: • Lining is required for increasing the flow velocity and the channel conveyance, reducing the flood risk; • Lining makes easy the implantation of interceptor pipelines and the so called sanitary roads; • Lining makes easy the creek maintenance; • Health risk due to directed contact with polluted waters may be reduced by creek lining (see Box 1 for an assessment of health risk associated to creek lining approaches); • Inhabitants of riparian zones usually ask for creeks to be lined. 1 State utility here refers to the Minas Gerais state. 8 Using concrete box culverts as a “solution” to aesthetic, odour, garbage and water-borne disease problems related to heavily polluted streams demonstrate an oversimplified approach of stormwater management. Legend: lined creeks natural creeks Figura 6 – Belo Horizonte hydrography The apparent simplicity of stormwater management, as perceived almost during all the last century, led to the use of very simple design methods for storm water systems. Synthetic models were used which do not require observed data to calibrate parameters (e.g.: rational method and synthetic unit hydrograph). Since observed data were considered as not necessary for storm water management, during all the last century the BH municipality did not invest in monitoring stream discharges or water quality parameters. One of the consequences of those approaches is high uncertainty in hydrologic design. A similar oversimplification also prevailed in hydraulic design. Complex flow conditions, including the effects of stream confluence, flow transitions or unsteady flow, were infrequently regarded and model simulations of these conditions were rarely done. Only uniform flow conditions use to be 9 regularly considered in the design of channel structures, which usually resulted in underestimations of flood risk and flood effects. Figura 7 – First lining works at the Arrudas creek during the 1920s. 10 BOX 1.: Association between types of intervention on riparian areas and health in developing countries. The case of Onça Creek Basin, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Batista, Nascimento and Heller (unpublished paper) The occurrence of floods due to heavy rains, the formation of rain water pools in places of poor drainage, the waste carried by the drainage system, and the pollution of waters caused by sewers discharge are potential factors for the dissemination of diseases in areas where the drainage system is either inexistent or ineffective due to construction, design and operation problems. Possible engineering works aiming to minimize such a situation include the treatment of riparian areas (open and/or closed channeling) and the construction of intercepting lines bordering watercourses or channels, preventing sewage from being poured in watercourses and, consequently, from contaminating the waters. In fact, sewage should be conducted to treatment stations. However, such practice is still not frequent in Brazil. Sewage is often poured in watercourses downstream the urban areas. In view of that, the present assessment was developed with the purpose of evaluating the association between different types of intervention on riparian areas and health indicators, as well as that of estimating the number of avoidable cases of diseases should treatment of the riparian areas be expanded. Areas occupied by low-income families with no previous planning and no previous approval from public agencies tend to have their watercourses unchanged, although even their banks are occupied. In general, when public agencies intervene in those areas, watercourses are channeled into closed concrete structures, with the top of the gallery being used as road pavement. However, intercepting lines, which are responsible for carrying sewage generated in their subbasins, are not always built. In this case, domestic sewage keeps on being discharged into watercourses in the urbanized section. In view of different “models” of urbanism, there has been possible to classify the types of intervention on present riparian areas into: 1) No channeling, with no sewer collector; 2) No channeling, with sewer collector; 3) Closed channeling, with no sewer collector; 4) Closed channeling with sewer collector; 5) Open channeling with sewer collector. The region of the Onça Creek basin was selected as the Area of Assessment, comprising a reach of 106,816.77 meters of creeks, as shown in Table B1.1. The Onça Creek catchment has a total drainage area of 93.66 km2, thus comprising 58 districts served by 51 public health centers. In 82.90% of the area the population density ranges from 0 to 86 inhabitants/ha. For each creek, the Area of Exposure, inserted in the Area of Assessment, was materialized by two lines parallel to its main channel, each one located 150 m distant for it. The length of the Area of Exposure was equal to the length of the creek reach, thus presenting a homogeneous type of intervention in its bed and riparian areas. The rationale for classifying the areas of influence is discussed in a subsequent item (“Definition of exposure and no exposure conditions”). The epidemiological method adopted was the case-control, and the population assessed were children under five years old, as they are more susceptible to diseases related to lack of sanitation and hygiene. Children who presented diseases such as diarrhea, intestinal parasitosis and dermatological diseases have been considered as cases. The selection of these three disease groups was based on the transmission mode, as related to the water factor, being recognized by the specific literature as a suitable indicator to assess the impact of sanitation measures (Benenson 1997; Bennet & Plum 1990; Heller 1998; Neves 1991; Sampaio & Castro 1985; Veronesi 1996). 11 Table B1.1 – Onça Creek catchment - situation of the riparian areas according to the type of intervention ________________________________________________________________________ Types of intervention Length (meters) ________________________________________________________________________ Unchanneled with no sewer collector 56,556.77 Unchanneled with sewer collector 7,036.54 Subtotal Channeled (closed) with no sewer collector Channeled (open and closed) with sewer collector 63,593.31 24,887.11 18,336.35 Subtotal 43,223.46 Total 106,816.77 _________________________________________________________________________ Combinations among health indicators were adopted, thus generating seven types of Cases: 1- Diarrhea; 5- Diarrhea and dermatological diseases; 2- Intestinal parasitosis; 6- Intestinal parasitosis and dermatological diseases; 3- Dermatological diseases; 7- Diarrhea, intestinal parasitosis and dermatological diseases; 4- Diarrhea and intestinal parasitosis Children presenting diseases defined by 86 selected groups of diseases, excluding those of the health indicators adopted for the Cases, were considered Controls. The definition of the 86 groups of diseases for the control group, selected out of a total of 95 groups, were strictly evaluated with the purpose of excluding those records which were not suitable for the assessment when taking into account potential ascertainment or selection bias. This type of misinterpretation of results may happen when data are not subjected to quality control and/or suitable supervision. The geographic information system (GIS) for Belo Horizonte, used in the present research project, has been previously developed by the municipal data processing company namely Empresa de Informática e Informação do Município de Belo Horizonte (PRODABEL) on the base of a aerial photographic surveys and cartographic data available in 1989. The MapInfo Professional software, version 4.1, was used to geoprocess the records of cases and controls geocoded according to patient’s address. MapInfo was also employed in bordering the areas of influence of the riparian areas, ensuring the correct assessment of records) (Fig. B1.1). In the Area of Assessment, 909 cases and 6,270 controls have been identified, out of which 413 cases and 2,020 controls were located in the Area of Exposure. Children living within the 300 m area of influence of the riparian reach, belonging to the Area of Exposure, have been considered exposed, when the riparian areas were under one of the following intervention conditions: unchanneled with no intercepting line; unchanneled with intercepting line; channeled (closed) with no intercepting line. A channeled (open) riparian area with no intercepting line was not found in the Area of Assessment. Two definitions were adopted for no exposure: (1) children living within the Area of Assessment, except those living in the Area of Exposure, and (2) children living on channeled (open and closed) riparian areas with intercepting line. 12 The survey of exposure and no exposure condition was performed by local visits as well as by means of information provided by Superintendência de Desenvolvimento da Capital (SUDECAP) and Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (COPASA-MG). SUDECAP is the municipal company responsible for storm water management as well as the construction and maintenance of other urban infrastructures as roads and municipal buildings. COPASA is the state company in charge of water supply and sewage collection and treatment in the municipality. Figure B1.1 – Demarcation of the area of influence for counting of records of cases and controls (150 m on each bank of the creek) Two risk measures were employed in the data analysis: - The odds ratio – OR and respective confidence interval– CI of 95% (Rothman & Greenland 1998), as calculated by means of the EPIINFO 6.0 software; - The attributable populational risk – APR, calculated by the equation below (Gordis 2000), where p is the ratio between controls on unchanneled riparian areas with no intercepting line and total controls, in the respective area (Area of Assessment and Area of Exposure): APR = p(OR − 1) p(OR − 1) + 1 The analysis of the association between types of intervention on riparian areas and health indicators has been divided into three large groups relevant for the assessment, as follows: − First group: Comparison between Exposure and No Exposure conditions − Second group: Comparison among the several types of intervention on riparian areas, under Exposure condition − Third group: Comparison by type of intervention on riparian areas, under Exposure condition 13 From the OR values found in the analysis of the three groups of associations, the following evidences could be drawn: − In nine associations of the first and second groups, the worst situation of risk to health was that of unchanneled riparian area with no intercepting line, followed by riparian area with no intercepting line. − The associations of the third group presented neither statistically-significant results nor a significant confidence interval. A possible hypothesis may be the inadequate sample size. − The highest OR values, resulting from the seven combinations of case definitions, occurred in the situations of exposure to unchanneled riparian area with no intercepting line and to channeled riparian area with no intercepting line. REFERENCES Benenson, A .S. 1997 Manual para el control de las enfermedades transmisibles. 16ª ed.: OPS, Washington, D.C. Bennet, J. C. & Plum, F. 1990 Tratado de Medicina Interna. Editora Guanabara, Rio de Janeiro. Gordis, L. 2000 Epidemiology. 2nd Ed, Saunders, Philadelphia. Heller, L. 1998 Saneamiento y salud. OPAS/OMS, Lima. Neves, D. P. 1991 Parasitologia Humana. 8th Ed. Atheneu, São Paulo Rothman, K.J, Greenland, S. 1998 Modern epidemiology. 2nd Ed. Lippincott, Philadelphia. Sampaio, S. A. P., Castro R. M. & Rivitti E. A. 1985 Dermatologia Básica. 3rd Ed. Artes Médicas, São Paulo Veronesi, R. 1996 Tratado de Infectologia. Atheneu, São Paulo. The intense urban growth during the 70s (Figures 8 and 12) combined to inequalities in the distribution of income led to huge impacts on water quality in receiving bodies and an increase of flood risk (Figure 9) mainly due to the impacts of new urban developments, caused by the increase of imperviousness and also to the occupation of flood prone areas. Most frequently, flood prone areas are occupied by poor people precisely because the land is less valued and inappropriate for legitimate construction (Figure 10). Water pollution by wastewater and diffuse pollution, including solid waste carried by runoff, as well as a result of intense erosion processes have caused the degradation of water quality in streams and the reduction of conveyance of sewers and channels due to sediment deposits (Figure 11). Detention basins have also been heavily impacted (Nascimento et al., 1999). An example is the Pampulha detention basin case study (PDB), part of one of the city most important urban complexes (see Box 2). 14 Figure 8 – Urban development of Belo Horizonte from the 50s up to 2000. Figure 9 – Flood event in the Arrudas flood plain area. 15 Figure 10 – Occupation of flood prone areas by low-income urban areas. Figure 11 – Sediment and solid waste trapped at lined channels. 16 A close correlation was then observed between the population growth and the number of flood events in Belo Horizonte (Figure 12). Also Figure 13 illustrates a spatial distribution of flood occurrences in the BH territory. 2200 100 Ocor. Inundações 90 2000 População (x1000) 1800 1600 70 1400 60 1200 50 1000 40 800 30 População (x 1000) Ocorrência de Inundações 80 600 20 400 10 200 0 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Década Figure 12 – Population growth (dotted line) and number of flood occurrences (bars) from 1930 to 1990 (Champs, Aroeira e Nascimento, 2005) BOX 2: THE PAMPULHA RESERVOIR The Pampulha Reservoir, formed by the streams Ressaca and Sarandi, with catchment area of 95 km2, is an important component of a urban development project aimed at expanding the city northwards, interfering in the most important landscape of the region. Figure B2.1 Pampulha Reservoir 17 The reservoir was conceived and installed with multi-objective aims, namely, flood control, water supply, leisure and sports activities, sailing and rowing, cycling, etc. Originally, in 1958, the reservation volume was of 18 million cubic meters and the water surface was 261 hectares. The intense and disorganized urbanisation of the upstream catchment, originally a rural area, resulting in a population growth of 300,000 inhabitants over 30 years, combined with adverse climatic, pedologic and topographic factors, led to intensive erosion processes. Also, lack of adequate sanitation and solid waste management caused intense water quality degradation in nearly all the tributaries to the reservoir. Those combined processes caused a dramatic degradation of water quality and a progressive and severe silting of the reservoir. With estimated average sediment flow rate reaching 450,000 m3/year, and after several sediment removal operations, its present storage capacity is estimated at 45% of its original one. Figure B2.2 illustrates the progress of sediment deposits and the loss of water surface area at the reservoir. Figure B2.2. Evolution of the water surface of Pampulha from 1964 until 2000 (Bandeira, 2004) The reduction of its storage capacity resulted in a significant limitation of its flood control functions, leading to an overload of its hydraulic structures (spillways) and to critical operational conditions of the downstream drainage system, which a hydraulic capacity limited to the 10-year return period event. This level of hydrologic risk is incompatible with the dense occupation of the downstream area, equipped with important urban infrastructures, including one of the city airports. The Pampulha reservoir is also impacted by illicit disposal of sewage and waste materials, facing eutrophication and associated aesthetic problems. The intense growth of aquatic plants, mainly Eichornia crassipes, favoured by the incidence of intense solar radiation all along the year, leads to the silting and the subsequent decomposition of organic matters, provoking the exhaustion of the dissolved oxygen. As a consequence, a prevalence of anaerobic conditions in the deep reservoir layers is observed with a subsequent generation of bad odours. The water quality conditions of the reservoir became so degraded that made unfeasible its use for water supply, since the decade of 1980. Favourable conditions still prevail for the development of insects of other vectors of water borne diseases. Recently the Belo Horizonte municipality implemented a program, named PROPAM, aiming to the pond structural, aesthetic and environmental rehabilitation. As part of this project, works on sediment retention and dredging, and on rearranging the silted materials were carried out aiming to conform an island where a park has been implanted. At the main tributary to the reservoir an on-line wastewater treatment plant (ETAF) has been implanted, allowing the treatment of the stream flow during the dry season (Figure B2.3). Due to the reduction of flow attenuation a new spillway had to be also implanted in order to reduce dram break risk due to overtopping. 18 Figure B2.3. Partial views of ETAF and new spillway With the implementation of the Storm Water Strategic Plan (SWSP) combined with the Water Supply and Sanitation Strategic Plan (WSSSP) the formal stormwater and sanitation policies have recently changed. As an example, an ongoing programme, the DRENURBS programme, aims to keep natural the remaining natural creeks in the urban and suburban areas. This program is supported and partially funded by the BID (Inter-American Development Bank – IDB). The SWSP includes the building of some 40 new detention basins in the urban area, with a main purpose of flood control. There are still relatively few concerns related to stormwater diffuse pollution, although the problem obviously exists, mainly because pollution of water bodies by wastewater is intense enough to mask effects of diffuse pollution on water quality. As part of the SWSP the BH municipality has already implemented actions as: • The survey programme on land use and on stormwater existing infrastructure, assessing the physical characteristics of all the existing system components; • The stormwater maintenance programme focusing on the present BH storm water infrastructure, involving structural renovation of drains, culverts, lined channels, natural channels, etc; • The implementation of a GIS and a database system gathering data about the storm water system. This GIS is compatible with the previous and more general municipal GIS which contains a huge data base about BH (many layers on land use, road system, public buildings, health care system, etc). 19 Figure 13 – Number of reported flood occurrences in the period 1922-2002 (colour scale: yellow stands for less then 10 occurrences; red for more than 30 occurrences). 20 Presently, the on-going Stormwater Strategic Plan and the Water Supply and Sanitation Strategic Plan focus on the following programmes: a) the DRENURBS programme: creek restoration in the urban area, which involves not only the restoration of polluted creeks but complete sanitation, risk management (risk of flooding, risk to public health …), and a housing programme addressed to people living in risky areas (improvement of housing conditions, removing people from risky areas); b) the stormwater monitoring programme: establishing and operating a rainfall, discharge and water quality measurement network to allow the identification of BH stormwater present problems and to contribute to the future evaluation of the efficiency of control measures eventually implemented according to the stormwater plan issues. This programme will also contribute to impact assessment of urbanisation on water resources and to the statement of land use regulatory measures aiming the mitigation of those kinds of impacts. c) the rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling programme: data generated by the monitoring program will feed models that will be employed in diagnosing the storm water system functioning, in devising main causes of system functioning problems and failures and in the simulation of different scenarios of control measures. The first phase of the programme is starting in 2006. In this phase, modelling will be performed previously to the monitoring program, using data from the existing rainfall measurement network and from detailed surveys on land use and on the stormwater sewerage system characteristics, already concluded. Modelling results from this phase will be useful in devising actions to deal with critical and urgent problems and in designing the monitoring network. d) the research and technological development programme: the main programme goal is the development of stormwater management technology to face stormwater main problems. Although the final scope of the programme has not yet been concluded, the following themes will certainly be part of it: • physical modelling of specific hydraulic structures, like gutters, culvert entrances and confluences with the purpose of efficiency evaluation under particular conditions that prevail in BH (steep channels, high flow velocities, frequent changes in water flow regimes, …) and design criteria statement; • evaluation of the volume of solid waste transported by the storm water system during storms and assessment of the waste typology (this is a common problem in many Brazilian towns, due to failures in solid waste management); • experimental investigation of the efficiency of source control devices (BMP: infiltration trench, pervious pavement, detention facilities, …) in terms of runoff and pollution abatement, maintenance requirements, building and operational costs, design criteria statement, etc – this will be done by pilot experiments – although there is a quite important literature on this subject, local particularities may be relevant (rainfall intensity, sediments and solid waste, public acceptance, maintenance requirements, costs …). • Assessment of benefices of flood control measures by economic evaluation of direct and indirect flood damages. e) the institutional and managerial development programme: this programme aims the statement of legal, economical, institutional and managerial measures in order to improve storm water management in the BH municipality. For the development of those programmes, the BID contributes with 60% of the required funds and the BH municipality provides the remaining 40%. 21 In BH, about 360,300 inhabitants live in shantytowns, poorly urbanized areas, mainly located at hills around the legal urban area or in flood prone areas. Those areas are subjected to frequent landslides or flooding during intense rain events occurring typically in summer. The BH municipality has developed a successful risk management programme concerning landslides and floods, which has reduced injuries, deaths and damages. It consists essentially of preventive measures; mainly removing people from risk areas to safer locations, and the development of emergency plans based on a network of small local risk management centres equipped with rescue teams (health professionals, engineers etc…) and appropriate equipment. Nevertheless, further progress still needs to be done in terms of more preventive measures, urban development planning, and of course long term measures focusing on the social and economic inclusion of people living in shantytowns. Belo Horizonte Threads and Uncertainties Long term threads and uncertainties associated to the Belo Horizonte urban development are first and briefly discussed in terms of population growth and climate change. This discussion in then followed by a list of potential risks associated to water supply and sanitation infrastructure and services organised in a table form. Population growth Population growth in Belo Horizonte is virtually reaching a saturation state (Figure 14). Present average population growth rate is at 1.1 % per year (from 1990 to 2000) and nearly 95% of the municipal area is already urbanised (Figure 8). It is important to consider that the BH land use law still allows a considerable densification of the present urban occupation in almost all the municipal territory, with exception of the central, very densely occupied area, and zones of restricted densification. Nevertheless, this scenario of high densification seems do not represent such a significant risk when one takes into account the mentioned present population growth rate. Inhabitants (*1000) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Time (years) Figure 14 – Population growth in Belo Horizonte. 22 Studies developed under the context of the Stormwater Strategic Plan assessed possible impacts of population growth on the percentage imperviousness taking into account trends on densification at each of the 111 elemental catchments of the BH territory. Figure 15 illustrates the distribution of the percentage imperviousness according to the elemental catchments (subcatchments) of the Arrudas and the Onça catchments. Figure 16 illustrates trends on percentage imperviousness increase at the same 111 elemental catchments. Percentage imperviousness [%] Rel. frequency 1 0,75 0,5 0,25 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Arrudas IMP [%] Onça Figure 15 – Percentage imperviousness empirical distributions for the 111 elemental catchments from the Belo Horizonte territory Increase on the percentage imperviousness [%] Rel. frequency 1 0,75 0,5 0,25 0 0 5 10 IMP increase [%] 15 20 Arrudas Onça Figure 16 – Trends on percentage imperviousness based on empirical distributions for the 111 elemental catchments from the Belo Horizonte territory (SUDECAP, 2000) On the base of those data its possible to conclude that imperviousness at Arrudas catchment is considerable higher than in Onça catchment. For instance, at the Arrudas catchment 50% of the elemental catchments have percentage imperviousness higher than 75%, at the Onça catchment this happens only for 25% of its elemental catchments. However, imperviousnessincreasing trends are more significant for the Onça than for the Arrudas catchment, in spite of the fact that those trends do not reach increasing rates higher than 20% as forecasted by the Stormwater Strategic Plan. 23 On the other hand, pressures due to population growth on water resources as well a variety of environmental impacts due to rapid urban expansion may be consistently expected in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte (RMBH), where population growth rates higher than 5% per year are still observed in certain townships (Tables 6 and 7). Part of this phenomenon is due to the attractiveness of industrial and commercial activities as well to the quality of public services at townships located near to Belo Horizonte. The low cost of land in those peri-urban areas, in many cases illegal urban developments with poor infrastructure of public services, may also partially explain this expansion process. Table 6 – Population growth in Belo Horizonte and its metropolitan region Municipality or Region Period – population growth rate in % per year 1960/70 1970/80 1980/91 1991-2000 Belo Horizonte municipality 6.1 3.7 1.1 1.1 Total RMBH 6.1 5.0 2.5 2.4 RMBH except Belo Horizonte 6.2 7.5 4.8 3.9 Source: IBGE – Censos Demográficos, FJP/Plambel (1974) and Rigotti & Rodrigues (1994), apud www.observatoriodasmetropoles.ufrj.br (visited in October 2006) 1950/60 7.0 6.2 Table 7 – Urbanization rate and population growth in Belo Horizonte and chosen municipalities located at its metropolitan region Municipality Urbanisation rate Population growth rate (%) of urban population in (%) per year respect to total population period: 1991-2000 1991 2000 Total Urban Belo Horizonte 99.7 100.0 1.1 1.2 Betim 94.9 97.3 6.7 7.0 Contagem 93.4 99.1 2.0 2.7 Nova Lima 84.0 97.9 2.3 4.1 Ribeirão das Neves 83.4 99.4 6.2 8.3 Sabará 83.3 97.7 2.8 4.7 Vespasiano 64.5 98.4 3.8 8.7 Total RMBH 94.0 97.5 2.4 2.8 Source: IBGE – Censos Demográficos, apud www.observatoriodasmetropoles.ufrj.br (visited in October 2006) Another on-going process of urban expansion is due to the increasing interest of rich people in new urban areas located in neighbour municipalities, the so-called condominiums. The attractiveness of those new developments is explained by their sparse occupation and their private security systems, not to mention that they are better endowed with green parks and leisure facilities than in the BH urban area. In spite of their low occupation density, those areas produce impacts on the environment, exert pressures on local natural resources (water, forests) and led to a progressive privatisation of scenic landscapes and forested areas that would have different uses in the future, including public access for leisure and sport activities. Climate and Climate change Figures 17, 18 and 19 and 20 illustrate long-term mean monthly temperature, precipitation, maximum 24-hour precipitation, and relative humidity, respectively, in Belo Horizonte, supposing time series stationarity. 24 o Mean monthly temperature [ C] 24.0 22.0 T [o C] 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month] Figure 17 – Belo Horizonte mean monthly temperature Mean monthly rainfall depth 350 300 P [mm] 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Figure 18 – Belo Horizonte mean monthly precipitation The main climate characteristics of the Belo Horizonte area are the relatively small thermal amplitude, in terms of mean temperatures, and a high seasonality of precipitation with very dry winters and rainy summers. Regionalisation studies on rainfall intensity, duration and frequency recently carried out for the BH metropolitan region (RMBH), based on precipitation data coming from more than 20 recoding rain gauges having time series longer than 30 years did not detect tendencies associated to climate change on precipitation depth or precipitation intensity at different time steps (Pinheiro and Naghettini, 1998). In contrast, tendencies on temperature can be identified, particularly in terms of mean temperatures (Figure 21). Nevertheless, one has to recognise the difficulties in isolating global change effects from anthropogenic impacts at a local scale, as in the case of development of urban heat islands due to increases of impermeable areas and changes in vegetation cover and in wind patterns. In BH, part of the 25 trends in temperatures as highlighted by the 5-year moving mean are coincident with a period of intense urbanisation from the 70s on (Figure 21). Pmax24 [mm] Max rainfall deph in 24 hours 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Figure 19 – Belo Horizonte maximum 24-hour precipitation Mean monthly relative humidity [% ] 85 80 Rh [%] 75 70 65 60 55 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month Figure 20 – Belo Horizonte average monthly relative humidity Regarding global change, a particular concern is about the possible synergetic combination of global with regional climate changes due to local anthropogenic impacts caused, for instance, by deforestation or urbanisation. Studies assessing regional and local impacts of climate change are not numerous in Brazil. Nevertheless, according to Nobre, Assad & Oyama (2005), the existing studies suggest that an increase in 20 C to 30 C on average temperature may lead to a reduction of trees up to 25% at the “cerrado” area (savannah) and up to 40% at the Amazonian forest, before the end of the 21st century. Those kinds of vegetation changes may result in warmer and dryer climate, which may lead to water shortage, among other possible impacts on water resources. 26 0 Mean annual temperature and 5 year moving average ( C) Temperature [oC] 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 1910 1930 1950 Year 1970 1990 2010 Figure 21 – Belo Horizonte mean annual temperature and 5-year moving average The IPCC (2001) report on possible impacts of climate change on urban areas, cited by Bigio (2003), suggests: • Expected increases in the scale, intensity, and frequency of rainfall resulting in periodic flooding of flood prone areas and in landslides on geologically unstable slopes, areas typically occupied by low-income informal settlements; • Sewage treatment systems and solid waste disposal areas can be affected by flooding, with possible contamination of water supply sources. • An evolution to dryer climates is likely to compromise the replenishment of the water tables and to reduce minimum flows, possibly implying in water shortage. • Intense episodes of thermal variability could severely strain urban systems by adding an environmental health risk for more vulnerable segments of the population, imposing extraordinary consumption of energy for heating and air conditioning, and disrupting ordinary urban activities; • Increase possibility of fires at urban and forested areas, severe hail, and windstorm; • Worsening urban air pollution exacerbated by increased ground ozone formation; • Enhanced effects of urban heat islands due to higher overall temperatures. Although assessments of those kinds of risks are not so far available for Belo Horizonte and region, they are likely to happen in the future provided that forecasts on global change are confirmed. 27 Long-term uncertainties and potential risks to urban waters in Belo Horizonte and the RMBH Drinking water Risk and uncertainties Water quality degradation Event Comments and explanations Accidental contamination of water sources by the outfall of toxic substances. Toxic algae bloom in reservoirs due to catchment environmental degradation. Interruption of water treatment plants, for different time spells. Higher risks at less protected catchments (e.g.: Vargem das Flores) Operational failures Low risk considering high operational standards Higher risks at less protected catchments (e.g.: Vargem das Flores). Risk of pollution by Fe and Mg in reservoirs where those metals are of natural occurrence (e.g.: Manso and Serra Azul) High health impacts in the case of pathogens hardly removed by conventional treatment processes (e.g.: Cryptosporidium,Giardia) and virus. Thermal inversion in reservoirs leading to the mobilisation and mixture of previously settled toxic components High level of emergent pathogen occurrences in water supply sources due to environmental disruption Existing instruments and means to handle the risk and to mitigate impacts COPASA became owner of all the direct contributing areas to more recently implanted reservoirs (Manso and Serra Azul). Cooperation between COPASA and Contagem municipality led to the reduction of urbanisation at the catchment upstream to Vargem das Flores reservoir and to investments on wastewater management. Systematic reservoir monitoring system. Operation rules for water withdrawal. Water shortage Flow reduction during dry seasons due to global change and local anthropogenic impacts on the hydrological regime. Water supply rationing and risk of search by the population of alternative unsafe water sources Conflicts related to the use of water and other natural resources Difficulties in ensuring water sources protection and risk of water shortage or water quality degradation due to conflicting interests at the river basin scale. Agricultural activities, including irrigated cultures, mining and other industrial activities are common at all the catchments where the water sources for the RMBH are located. Urbanisation exists in some of those catchments. Accidents related to natural disaster Disruption of water supply systems due to natural hazards like flooding, fires or landslides. Failures on system units due to lack of maintenance or ageing of infrastructure and equipments. Leakage of water. Key units (e.g.: pumping units, major pipelines, …) may fail due to lack of maintenance or ageing. Leakage of water at the drinking water distribution system is still high. Part of the water supply system was implanted at the beginning of the last century. Water resources management law and environmental protection law have consistent instruments to reduce and to mitigate anthropogenic impacts. River basin committees exist for the Velhas and the Paraopeba River Basins, which are in charge of formulating the water resources management policy for those basins. Nevertheless, there are still difficulties in enforcing the law and in using all the available water management instruments. Water resources management law and environmental protection law have consistent instruments to handle conflicts of water as well as other natural resources use (land, forest, …). Difficulties persist on handling urbanisation, particularly the spreading of informal settlements. Urban development plans and urban land use legislation do not take into account impacts of urbanisation on water and other natural resources in an effective way. Emergency plans exist, but there is need of further developments on prevention and mitigation planning to cope with those kinds of risks. Maintenance standards are high and consistent. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment on investment needs for the modernisation of ageing systems must be performed. 29 Contamination or system failure induced by terrorism or criminal organisations. Increasing costs Sabotage, vandalism, water contamination by toxic substances on purpose Although there are no registers of those kinds of actions in Minas Gerais, it is convenient to take into account this kind of risk possibly linked to criminal organisations. Increasing costs imposed by different causes Possible causes: • Water resources pollution leading to higher treatment costs • Water shortage at present sources implying on higher capital and operational costs for withdrawing water at remote sources • Investment for de modernisation of ageing systems • Energy costs A vigilance scheme exists; nevertheless it is not able to cover all the system components. 30 Wastewater Risk and uncertainties Persistent and chronic pollution of receiving water Event Implementing interceptors is postponed. Persistence of illicit connexions between stormwater and wastewater sewerage systems. Lack of investments to increase WWTP treatment capacity Operational failure or poor operation of WWTP leading to poor treatment performance Comments and explanations Main causes may be lack of investments for implanting interceptors associated to high costs, political and social difficulties for removing informal settlements from riparian areas, making difficult interceptors building. Main causes: • Technical difficulties in locating and reducing that kind of connexions. • Need of training and information in order to avoid new inadequate connexions between the two systems. • Informal settlements (shantytowns) usually “adopt” combined sewerage systems. Although of low risk, changes in policy and planning may postpone investments in treatment plants. Main causes: • Poor operational qualification; • WWTP disturbed by wet weather transient flows due to illicit connexions between stormwater and wastewater sewerage systems Existing instruments and means to handle the risk and to mitigate impacts The Belo Horizonte Sanitation Plan states the complete equipment of the sanitation system in 20 years. The Brazilian Continuous Education Programme on Water Supply and Sanitation headed by the UFMG in the Southeast Region focus on operational capacity building. COPASA and PBH are partner of this programme. COPASA possesses maintenance high and consistent operational standards. 31 Accidents related to natural disaster WWTP not equipped to remove nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and emerging polluters as endocrine-disrupting chemicals. Disruption of wastewater systems due to natural hazards like flooding or landslides. Failures on system units due to lack of maintenance or ageing of infrastructure and equipments. Key units (e.g.: pumping units, major pipelines, …) may fail due to lack of maintenance or ageing. Increasing costs Increasing costs imposed by different causes System failure induced by terrorism or criminal organisations. Uncertainties related to sludge final disposal Sabotage, vandalism leading to system disruption Emerging polluting chemicals are not usually monitored in Brazil. Awareness of the problem is not wide. Emergency plans exist, but there is need of further developments on prevention and mitigating action planning to cope with those kinds of risks. Maintenance and operational standards are high and consistent. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment on investment needs for the modernisation of ageing systems must be performed. This question concerns mainly ageing sewerage where maintenance is less regular then in the case of the water supply distribution system. Possible causes: • Investment for de modernisation of ageing systems • Energy costs Vandalism is not uncommon regarding public service equipments, although this kind of problem is not frequent regarding wastewater units. A vigilance system exists; nevertheless it is not able to cover all the system. 32 Stormwater Risk and uncertainties Event Comments and explanations Existing instruments and means to handle the risk and to mitigate impacts Flooding No significant changes or increase on the occurrence of floods and damage caused by floods. Emergency plans exist, but there is need of further developments on prevention and mitigating action planning to cope with those kinds of risks. Difficulties persist on handling urbanisation, particularly the spreading of informal settlements. Urban development plans and urban land use legislation do not properly consider impacts of urbanisation on water and other natural resources in an effective way. Pollution of receiving waters by wet weather diffuse pollution No significant changes or even increase on the wet weather diffuse pollution. Main causes: • Increase on imperviousness due to urbanisation • Lack of investments to correct present hydraulic functioning problems in the existing stormwater sewerage system • New developments (legal and illegal) in flood prone areas • Lack of proper maintenance • Technology update is not sufficient, persistence in using oversimplified design methods • Climate change alters storm frequency and intensity Main causes: • Increase on imperviousness due to urbanisation • Lack of proper maintenance • Technology update is not sufficient, persistence in using oversimplified design methods • Wet weather pollution not properly considered • Failures in other sanitation sectors, as in solid waste management. High pollution of receiving waters by wastewater outflows masks effects of diffuse pollution. Difficulties persist on handling urbanisation, particularly the spreading of informal settlements. Difficulties in controlling illicit solid waste disposal on hills or directly on water bodies. Urban development plans and urban land use legislation do not properly consider impacts of urbanisation on water and other natural resources in an effective way. 33 Persistent and chronic pollution of receiving water Implementing interceptors is postponed. Persistence of illicit connexions between stormwater and wastewater sewerage systems. Lack of investments to increase WWTP treatment capacity Operational failure or poor operation of WWTP leading to poor treatment performance The Belo Horizonte Sanitation Plan states Main causes may be lack of investments the complete equipment of the sanitation for implanting interceptors associated to system in 20 years. high costs, political and social difficulties for removing informal settlements from riparian areas, making difficult interceptors building. Main causes: • Technical difficulties in locating and reducing that kind of connexions. • Need of training and information in order to avoid new inadequate connexions between the two systems. • Informal settlements (shantytowns) usually “adopt” combined sewerage systems. Although of low risk, changes in policy and planning may postpone investments in treatment plants. The Brazilian Continuous Education Programme on Water Supply and Sanitation headed by the UFMG in the Southeast Region focus on operational capacity building. COPASA and PBH are partner of this programme. COPASA possesses maintenance high and consistent operational standards. WWTP not equipped to remove nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and emerging polluters as endocrine-disrupting chemicals. Emerging polluting chemicals are not usually monitored in Brazil. Awareness of the problem is not wide. 34 Risks associated to the use of BMPs Failures on flooding control and wet weather pollution abatement. Health risks, soil pollution associated to the use of BMP devices Reduced public acceptance of BMP Accidents related to natural disaster Disruption of stormwater systems due to natural hazards like flooding or landslides. Failures on system units due to lack of maintenance or ageing of infrastructure and equipments. Key units (e.g.: major culvert channels) may fail due to lack of maintenance or ageing: structural rupture due to abrasion or foundation problems Increasing costs Increasing costs imposed by different causes Main causes: • Lack of maintenance • Technology update is not sufficient • Persistence in using oversimplified design methods for source control and other BMP devices • Failures in controlling urbanisation, diffuse pollution sources, including erosion processes at the catchment scale • Ignorance or not enough concern regarding wet weather diffuse pollution and its impacts on BMP Possible causes: • Investment for de modernisation of ageing systems • Maintenance costs • Operational costs: monitoring, modelling • Costs imposed by vandalism The Swormwater Strategic Plan includes a programme on technology update and on capacity building focusing on monitoring, modelling and new technologies, including BMP. The BH municipality is investing in environmental education and dissemination of urban drainage new technologies for a large public, including river restoration and BMP. The SWITCH project research and demonstration activities will certainly contribute to reduce the mentioned risks. Emergency plans exist, but there is need of further developments on prevention and mitigating action planning to cope with those kinds of risks. Maintenance and operational standards are high and consistent. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment on investment needs for the modernisation of ageing systems must be performed. This question concerns mainly ageing sewerage where maintenance is less regular then in the case of the water supply distribution system. It is part of the Swormwater Strategic Plan the assessment of alternatives for funding current stormwater operational actions. 35 System failure induced vandalism. Vandalism leading to system disruption There is concern on the risk of vandalism against monitoring equipments (rain gauges, automatic samplers, data logger stations, etc) that will be implemented under the Swormwater Strategic Plan and the SWITCH demonstration activities. The BH municipality is investing in environmental education and dissemination of urban drainage new technologies for a large public. This may include information on equipments implanted in the catchments and their role, possibly contributing to vandalism reduction. 36 Risk and uncertainties associated to governance and institutional development Further than the risks mentioned above, and as part of the reasons for the emergence of those risks, are institutional and governance issues. This may concern the requirements of integrated planning and management that must be developed at different territorial and institutional scales: • territorial scale: district, city, metropolitan, river basin, state, national; • water supply and sanitation sub-sectors: water supply, wastewater, storm water, solid waste • sectors of the urban policy development: urban planning, urban development major projects, housing, industrial development, road system and transport For part or those sectors, water issues are not currently included in the decision-making procedures or in the legislation. The implementation of an effective integrated urban water management system will, therefore, require considerable improvements on governance and institutional development, in order to ensure effective co-operation among different sectors of decision-making, policy formulation and management at the urban sphere as well as at the river basin sphere. As part of the required institutional development for integrated urban water management is capacity building. IUWM implementation implies on considerable changes on technical and managerial methods, including monitoring, modelling, planning, decision-making on the base of indicators, adopting new legislation, communication, facilitating public participation, etc. Those changes require well-trained professionals on new methods and techniques, which will require training of existing staff as well as hiring new professionals. Therefore, uncertainties and risks related to governance and institutional development refer mainly to concerns on the difficulties of implementing those new policies, methods and legal basis. REFERENCES Bandeira, J.V.. Desenvolvimento de técnicas nucleares e correlatas para estudos em Hidrologia Urbana. 2004. 311 f. Tese (Doutorado em Saneamento, Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Bigio, A. G. 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(2005), Gestão do território e das águas pluviais urbanas: Cidade de Belo Horizonte (MG), Acordo de Cooperação Interisticuinal Hydroaid-Ministério das Cidades, Brasília: Ministério das Cidades e Hydroaid, 59 p. Pinheiro, M.M.G., Naghettini, M. (1998), Análise regional de freqüência e distribuição temporal das tempestades na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte – RMBH. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, v.3, n.4, p.73-87, Out/Dez 1998. SNIS (2001), Diagnóstico dos Serviços de Água e Esgotos – 2001, Brasília: Programa de Modernização do Setor de Saneamanto. SUDECAP (2000), Plano Diretor de Drenagem de Belo Horizonte, primeira etapa, Belo Horizonte: Magna Engenharia. 38