Increasing Needs for Infrastructure Investments and

Increasing Needs For Infrastructure Investments
and Decreasing Federal Investments and Your
Prosperity:
What Can Local Governments Do?
41% of U.S. drainage
flows through the body
of the nation
BG U.S. Army (Ret.)
Duke DeLuca
Sapper, Builder, Educator,
Water Resources Steward and
Developer
Demand Increase - Water for Agriculture including
Embedded Exported Water and Transport
UNESCO:
World will need
55% more food
In 2030 than
today
 15-25 bushels per acre growing to
100 bushels per acre

Wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton
 Growing to 200 bushels per acre –
corn

Some cases 300 bushels per acre
 Second “Green Revolution” now

First – 1970s “Borlaug” Revolution
Demand Increase -
Embedded Exported Water
Demand Increase - Water for Livestock and
Embedded Exported Water
A) Cattle
B) Pork
C) Chicken
Production
Demand Increase - Water for Agriculture
Mitigation through Innovation
GMO Crops – Can Mitigate Water Demand But
What Qualifies as GMO?
Demand Increase - Water for Agriculture
Transport Services
Demand Increase - Transport Services in US
Demand Increase - Water for Hydrocarbon
Production and Shipping
 United States OIL production:

Grew 18% in last year alone

US will be world #1 producer in 2015 (more than KSA) US is #1 oil producer July 2014
 United States NATURAL GAS production:

United States is world’s #1 producer as of 2013 (more than Russia)
 Affects many other industries including chemical, plastics and all manufacturing
•
US has more natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar, and KSA combined:
• Enough for 575 years of total 2014 US Electricity demand
Demand Increase - Water for Hydrocarbon
Production
Water Use by Sector (MGal/Day)
Electric Power
Irrigation
Public Supply
Industrial
Aquaculture
Mining
Domestic
Livestock
:
Fracking
Top Industrial Water Users
(Production Use Only)
(100 gal of H20 / lb of cotton)
1. Apparel
(79 gal of H20 / iPad)
2. Technology
(1,400 gal of H20 / fast food meal)
3. Food
(1.85 gal of H20 / 20 oz bottle of H20)
4. Beverage
(250 million Lb of waste into water supply / yr)
5. Biotech/Pharm
(2.5 gal of H20 / sheet of paper)
6. Forest Products
201,000
128,000
44,200
18,200
8,780
4,020
3,830
2,140
:
48 (2012 data)
Water Use
10000
8000
d 6000
4000
2000
0
Aquaculture
Mining
Domestic
Livestock
Fracking
Fracking
Livestock
Domestic
Mining
Aquaculture
Industrial
Public Supply
Irrigation
Elec Power
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Demand Increase - Water for Hydrocarbon
Production
USA Water Consumption by Energy Type (2008)
1) Biofuel consumes 20x as much water per mile compared to
gasoline
2) Electric vehicles require 3x as much water per mile compared to
gasoline
Demand Increase - Water for Hydrocarbon
Production Shale Gas Wells vs. Golf Courses
4,992 MGal/day = H20 use by Golf Courses
in USA
312,000 gal/day = H20 use by avg Golf
Course in USA
The Water from the life of
one Shale Well (5 M
Gallons max)…
…could supply water for a
Palm Springs GC for five (5)
days
…could supply water for an
avg GC for sixteen (16) days
In a place like Palm Springs, where 57 golf courses
challenge the desert, each course eats up one
million gallons a day. That is, each course each day
in Palm Springs consumes as much water as an
American family of four uses in four years.
57 Palm Springs
Golf Courses
(1 year)
=
Drilling of 4,161
wells in North
Dakota*
*540,000 barrels of oil per well = 2.2 billion
barrels of oil
Demand Increase - Transport Services in US
Demand Increase - Transport Services in US
Demand Increase - New Industrial Revolution in the
US or the “Return” of Manufacturing to US - Transport
Industry 4.0
•
US manufactures 6 times more today
than in 1950 when we manufactured
more than rest of the world combined –
Manufacturing Never “Left” the US.
•
Chinese Imports
are only 2.7% of
US consumer
spending
•
They are only
1.3% of all US
spending total
Construction
began Jul 2014
on $1.1 billion
steel mill Osceola
Seversal
Steel Mill
Columbus,
MS
$975M Steel Mill at Port of
Caddo-Bossier on Red River
in NW LA expected to be
complete in 2015
US workers are 10 times more
productive than Chinese workers
Total Water Withdrawals – M Gallons / Day
Demand Increase - Groundwater and Surface
Water Withdrawals and Transport Services
• Ag Exports
Include
Embedded
Groundwater
• Ogallala
aquifer alone
loses
42 billion
gallons / year
(100K years
to
Recharge
with
Current
Rainfall)
Demand Increase - Transport Services – Where
is Most Cost Effective Payback?
Demand Increase - Adapting to the Measured
Impacts of Accelerating Climate Change
 Changes to weather

Precipitation more intense – more volume in less time

Increased runoff from this and development

Significant storm events of high intensity
• Record number of > $1 billion events in 2013 (41 - 7 in United States)
• Increasing high damage weather events - 151 since 1980
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change and Flood and Storm Damage
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change and Flood and Storm Damage
• Food
crises in
Africa
increased
threefold
since
the 1980s
Climate Change Impacts in the United States:
Highlights, U.S. Global Change Research Program,
p. 32, http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change and Flood and Storm Damage
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change Increasing Global Temperatures
*Graphic courtesy of NOAA Paleoclimatology,
National Climatic Data Center
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change Increasing Global Temperatures
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change Increasing Global Temperatures
Demand Increase - Accelerating Climate
Change Increasing Sea Level Rise
 Changes to watershed functioning – part climate change

Higher stages with same or less flow as in the past (need new flow
line for Mississippi River – underway)

Bottom changes (geomorphology study
underway)
• Accelerating sea level rise
• Louisiana coastal land loss is Relative Sea Level Rise
•
There is no fully funded Federal Program to address
the science of SLR adaptation or protection for
selected coastal or riverine assets or harbors
• MR&T Federal Program
Paid 44 to 1 Returns in
2011 alone - protection
• It has paid 245 to 1
since 1928
Demand Increase - Our Development Patterns
Increase our Risk Exposures
• Fastest growth area in US is
mid-Atlantic to Southeast US
-- Greatest Storm event threats
-- Experiencing moderate Sea Level Rise
•
West has Highest Water Use per capita
• We are increasing - not
reducing – our vulnerability
Overall Demand Increase for Infrastructure
• Increased Agricultural Production and Exports
= Increased Need for Water and Transport
• Increased Hydrocarbon and Industrial Production =
Increased Need for Water and Transport
• Increased Changes in Watershed Behavior (due to
development and climate change impacts)
= Increased Need to Adapt Water Resources
Infrastructure to deliver All Eco-system Services
> Flood Protection > Water Supply > Hydropower
> Navigation/Transport > Recreation > Stewardship
> Water Storage > Habitat Preservation/Restoration
• And Yet --- We are Failing to even Maintain our
Water Resources and Transportation Infrastructure
Overall Demand Increase for Infrastructure But
We Do Not Maintain What We Have
•
•
•
•
•
FY 16 President’s Budget adds $478B for
Highway infrastructure BUT……
Added to existing spending – no
prioritization…..no revenue source
Highway System needs ~$96B per year
just to be maintained - 45% Federal
55% State and Local
Federal MAP-21 is $40B / year which is
$9.5 B less than its share
Water Resources Spending CUT by
14.5%
• USA still largest
economy in
the world
• US is 3d or 4th
wealthiest per
person
• US Federal Investment
in Infrastructure is
LOWEST in over
70 years!
• MAP-21 Highway Plan
expires 31 MAY 2015
• (extended 2 months on
20 May 15)
• Highway Trust Fund
runs out of money ~
mid-July 2015
Overall Demand Increase for Infrastructure But
We Do Not Maintain What We Have
$12
~$70.00 per
person in the
US!
~$56.00 per
person in the
US!
~$18.00 per
person in the
US!
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Billions of FY 2011 Dollars
$10
Historical Investments by USACE Functional Category 1928
to 2011
Year
Navigation
Flood
Multipurpose
MR&T
Dredging
Overall Demand Increase for Infrastructure But
We Do Not Maintain What We Have
Low investment in infrastructure!
(equivalent to Greece #143 in world)
Overall Demand Increase for Infrastructure But
We Do Not Maintain What We Have
Since 2000:
 ~50% decrease in
availability
 Twofold increase in
scheduled outages!
Since 2000: more than
a doubling in delays!
These are actual delays
experienced by vessels!
Overall Demand Increase for Infrastructure But
We Do Not Maintain What We Have
2013 Report Card for
America’s Infrastructure
by the American Society of Civil Engineers
Aviation
D
Ports
C
Bridges
C+
Public Parks & Recreation C-
Dams
D
Rail
C+
Drinking Water
D
Roads
D
Energy
D+
Schools
D
Hazardous Waste
D
Solid Waste
B-
Inland Waterways
D-
Transit
D
Levees
D-
Wastewater
D
Estimated investment needed by 2020 =
$3.6 trillion
D+
America’s
Cumulative G.P.A.
A = Exceptional
B = Good
C = Mediocre
D = Poor
F = Failing
Private Investments in Rail Infrastructure
Increased Infrastructure Needs due to
Ag Production, Hydrocarbon Production,
Industrial Production
• Primary Impact Economic
• Increased Demand for Water – surface and
ground
• Increased Demand for Transportation
• Resulting Social and Political Impacts
US Gross Domestic Product & Federal Budget





2012:
Revenue = $2.5 T
Spent = $3.5 T
Deficit = $1 T
US GDP = $16.2 T





2014:
Revenue = $3.0 T
Spent = $3.5T
Deficit = $483 B
US GDP = $17.3 T
GDP per person at Purchasing Power Parity and share of global
population, 2014 As published in The Economist, “The Dragon
takes wing”, May 3rd 2014, p. 65.
US Gross Domestic Product & Federal Budgets
US Federal Capital
Infrastructure
Investment Trend:
• 1981 – 9.5% Federal
Budget
• 2014 – 4.5% Federal
Budget
• $150 B per year less
(~ 1% of GDP less) !
As published in “The Budget Control Act and Trends in
Discretionary Spending,”
D. Andrew Austin, Congressional Research Service,
2 April 2014, p. 20.
A Claim that “we are out of money”
is false.
It really means “I am happy with the way
the budget is being allocated right now.”
Federal Debt and Who Owns It
Federal Debt and How Much It Costs Us
 Since DEC 2008 the Federal
Funds rate of interest has
been between 0 and 0.25%
 The world is lending US
money at < 0.25%
When Trying to Recover From a
Depression:
Should the USA pay off a Zero %
Interest Loan Early?
Why?
 The World is
Bringing us
their Money at
almost Zero
Cost
 Why Not
Invest It and
Gain a Return
For the
American
people?
Federal Budgets and the Budget Control Act
 BCA Impact 2014 through 2021 expiration: SHAPING THE DEBATE!!
 Expenses capped at 2012 levels for all purposes!
 No prioritization of expenses
 10% reduction overall annually from 2012 budget = Total $ 350 B less / year
 Actual = Reduced $ 93 B / year in Federal infrastructure investment
 Total Actual reduction in investment by 2021= minimum of $ 744 B
 Existing Trend + BCA = guaranteed ~$ 250 B less Federal total (~1.5% of
GDP) investment per year in infrastructure and water resources than in
Unemployment and The Paradox of Thrift
• Long-Term Unemployment is an unprecedented Problem
since 1960 – in spite of “Recovery” since 2009 Why?
• Austerity Causes the “Paradox of Thrift”
• Risks the real economy killer – Deflation!!
What Is the Cost of Our Failure to Invest
In Infrastructure?
• Public
Investment of 1% GDP =
• 0.4% GDP additional growth year 1
• 1.5% GDP Additional Growth year 4
• Debt-to-GDP drop 0.9% in year 1
• Debt-to-GDP drop 4% in year 4
Source: IMF “World Economic Outlook 2014” OCT 2014
• Infrastructure Investment is like a Slot Machine that Pays Off
EVERY TIME
• The Federal Government is Refusing to Play this Wealth
Generation Machine – But our Parents and Grandparents Knew
• Rail (1840s to Present)
• Inland Waterways (1920s t0 1985)
• Highways (1956 to 1990)
• Led to the Three Largest Longest Economic Expansions in
World History = 80s, 90s, 00s in the USA.
What Is the Cost of Our Failure to Invest
In Infrastructure?
• For Comparison == What did we lose from the Great
Depression?
• Great Depression – loss of Real GDP 1929-1935
• Lost total of $1.8+ Billion in wealth directly (1930 $)
• Lost Forever with a long tail – no growth from it
• 75 Year Result = $30.3 Trillion less wealth in America today!!
(Ave GDP growth since 1940 of 3.67%)
• Today we are growing wealth at least 1 - 2 % lower than
potential due to reduced investments by ~ 1.5% GDP
• Lose approximately $320 B per year in wealth creation now
• 10 years = $4.2 Trillion lost (trend) to $7.6 T (trend+BCA)
• 50 years = $ 30.1 Trillion lost (trend) to $40.4T (trend+BCA)
 Budget Control Act Investment
Impacts Alone:
 Lost Growth by 2021 = $ 3.4 T
 GDP today in 2015 would be
Over $18 T (vs. $17 T)
• Far Exceeds
Wealth
Impact of the
Great
Depression!
Current Trend + Budget Control Act
•
Great Depression Global Impacts
• Social Breakdown
• Economic Collapse
• Famine
• Decayed Infrastructure
• National Breakdown
• War and Social Disorder aggravate
hunger
• 2000-2014:
•HS Grad earns
11% less
•College Grad
earns 5%less
•2007-2010:
•Median net US
family wealth is
39% less (1992)
• Signs of early Social Breakdown today?
• Extremely polarized politically
• Tea Party + Middle Class Resentments
• Working Class and Racial/Ethnic Resentments
• New Gilded Age?
• CEOs made 25 Times Worker pay 1970s
• CEOs make 300+ Times worker pay today
• Top 25 Hedge Fund Mgrs = paid ~$1B each
• Top 1% controlled 25% of wealth 1970s
• Top 1% control 40% of wealth today (US)
Increasing Inequality and Lower Income
Increasing Inequality and Lower Incomes
• From 2007 to
2010 Median Net
Worth of US
Families dropped
39%
• Top 0.01%
control 11% of
total wealth
(~1916 peak)
• Top 0.1%
controls 22%
(~1929 peak)
• US Wages today are 1.2%
lower today than in 2009 after 5
years of “Recovery”
• 1947-1960 Productivity and
Wages grew by 51%
• 1960-Present Productivity
Grew 220% but Wages Grew
only 100%
Why Choose Slower Growth ?
• Economic Growth
solves the issue of
struggling Working
and Middle Classes
• It reduces Debt to
GDP ratio
automatically
• It increases
collections to
reduce deficits
directly
• It provides
resources to protect
and adapt to climate
stress !!!!!
-
US Corporate Profits are at highest % of GDP since first measured in 1947
- In 2013 US firms spent more on dividends and buybacks than on capital investment
• Inequality in the US in income and
wealth has begun to suppress consumer
demand for the majority of the population
– this drags on and prevents growth
• 1/1000 of US
population donates
25% of all campaign
donations – going up
Why Choose Slower Growth ?
• When Lehman Brothers Collapsed
in 2008 –
• China starts a Massive Stimulus
Program to counter the impacts
• Focused on Infrastructure
• Loans to Banks requiring them
to lend to enterprises (conditions)
• China’s recovery was faster than
All other nations’ recoveries – why?
• Chinese GDP 2008 = $4.5 Trillion
• Chinese GDP 2014 = $9+ Trillion
• Economic Growth
solves the issue of
struggling Working
and Middle Classes
• It reduces Debt to
GDP ratio
automatically
• It increases
collections to
reduce deficits
directly
• It provides
resources to protect
and adapt to climate
stress !!!!!
What Is the Cost of Our Failure to Invest
In Infrastructure in Response to Climate Stress?
• Accelerating Impacts of Climate Change:
Affects Everything: Hard to Estimate Costs
• Most U.S. discussion focus so far:
• Increased water loading, peak flows
• We are not Adapting Our Water Infrastructure to
to manage new rainfall / runoff / flow patterns
• Flood Risk Increase – inland and coastal -- But…….
• Drought is the main threat of accelerating
accelerating climate change – globally & historically
• Global Vulnerability
• 75% of World Pop lives in Tropics (5.25 Billion)
• 2/3 depend on Agriculture to survive (3.5 Billion)
• 1.3 Billion people live in poverty today
• 600 Million people close to starvation today
• 400 Million more live in marginal land in the Sahel
Revolution 4 Climate Stress Responses
• Migration / Movement – most common
• Social Collaboration
• Muddling from Crisis to Crisis
• Decisive Leadership by Central Small Group
• Innovations to Increase the Carrying
Capacity of the Land
Not Always all bad effects
•
•
•
•
•
•
Migration Examples:
• US Dust Bowl 1931-40
• Ancient Sumeria
• Ancient Akkad
• Anasazi / Ancient
Pueblo
• Early bands – hunter /
gatherer
Collaboration Examples:
• Chumash (CA) intensify
ag and new governance
• Egyptian state building
and irrigation innovation
• Chimu irrigation
systems in Peru
- some Good Effects
Stone Age Coping = Mobility and well-developed Social
networks
8000 BCE = Development of Ag and Animal Husbandry
3000 BCE to today = population expansion!
Agriculture led to State Formation
Leaders and govts emerged, led cooperation + innovation
New Agriculture in 14-1500s in Europe in “Little Ice Age”
What Can We Conclude?
• Increasing demands on America’s water supply, water resources
infrastructure and transportation infrastructure
• US is not yet responding to these Demands or the Recession in a
systematic and coherent manner. It is costing us immense wealth
lost.
• Climate is under stress globally unlike any era since the Medieval
Warm Period and this stress will only increase
• Relationship between Population – Carrying Capacity – and
Legitimacy of Rulers is still active in human society (e.g. Somalia)
• Drought is the number 1 threat to the planet
• Not necessarily in Mississippi basin itself (41% of US)
• In the West and Southwest USA – long-term drought (last 15 yrs)
• In the Mid-West – marginal lands and groundwater aquifers
• Global and national drought will affect the USA
• Flows, allocations, conflicting demands
• These influences and solutions cannot be effectively
managed via the court system – EX: Missouri, Columbia Rivers
• Some Historic adaptation solutions are NOT open to us today
• Mass migration and movement
• Small centralized group exerting decisive leadership
What Can We Conclude?
• Some Historic adaptation solutions are open to us today and ARE
strengths of American culture
• Innovation to increase Carrying Capacity of the Land
• US tends to believe on faith that this will save us without
other efforts
• Social Collaboration – in a well-regulated market with rule of law
• Some Global Impacts last seen during the Great Depression are
Already visible in US and global society
• Social Breakdown (US, Africa, Middle East, Eurasia)
• Decaying Infrastructure (US, Africa)
• Famine (Africa)
• National Breakdown (Africa, Middle East, Eurasia)
• War and Social Disorder – only 15 nations conflict free today
• Some historic unsuccessful responses to climate stress are present
• Reliance on violence and extreme religious ideology P+S but no T
• Denial or misunderstanding of the problems precludes
the emergence of leadership on a scale needed to address it
• US dominant mode (Democracies in general) is to choose the
Adaptation method of Muddling Through from Crisis to Crisis
• Will decisive but collaborative leadership emerge?
Failure of Vision
 “Nothing has been proposed during my twenty-two years in the
United States Senate that would do more to wreck our fiscal budget
system. As we spend and borrow and borrow, the least we can do for
future generations – our children and grandchildren, on whom we
would place astronomical burdens – is to keep an honest set of
books so we’ll know what debts we of this generation have incurred
for them to pay.”
--Sen. Harry Byrd: VA commenting on the proposed Clay Plan for the
Eisenhower Interstate Highway System, 1955
Success of Vision
 United States GDP has grown 6 times larger today than
in 1955 – due in large part to investments in inland
waterways, flood protection and the interstate highway
system.
– $ 2.78 trillion in 1955
– $ 17 trillion in 2014
Failure of Vision
 May 2015 Memo from OMB to ALL Federal
Departments – POTUS Directive
 All FY 17 Budget Requests will be reduced 5% from the FY
16 Budget Request
 Sequestration becomes an enduring federal policy
 Curtails investment in infrastructure
 Reducing government demand in the economy without
private replacement or substitution for this demand
 Not just a “Tea Party” problem – all lack of understanding
Success of Vision
 Who will re-educate Congress and voters
about the virtues of Federal Capital
Investment in Infrastructure?
 Will we win in the 21st Century as we did in the
20th?
 What happens if we don’t?
What is Needed Now ?
• Renew Understanding about Federal Capital Investments
• Ask Your Federal Delegation to Change Budget Priorities
or Defend the Current Priorities – no “out of money”
excuses
• Understanding of Payback and Necessity of Water Resource
and Climate Resilience Science and Investments
• Necessity to Plan and Engineer our Watersheds to Deliver ALL
needed eco-system services
• Community Collaboration to address all requirements and
create an Achievable Plan
• Continue the Democratization of Water Resource Decisions
and Resourcing (WRRDA 2014) to Access Finances
• Energize and Employ Private Capital Investments
• Enable Use of Local and State Capital Investments
• Invest in Flood Protection of Selected Assets / Areas
• Zoning Changes in Affected Areas - to Reduce Risk
• Construction Standards in Affected Areas - Reduce Risk
What is Needed Now ?
• Discourage Biomass Fuel Agriculture – Inefficient Use of
Precious Water
• Plan for Increased Transport Infrastructure and Services
• Storage and Distribution Facilities
• State / County Road networks
• Highway to River or Coastal Ports
• Rail to River or Coastal Ports
• River Port Development – Navigation Dredging and Erosion
Control
• Invest in Stormwater, Grey Water Re-Use Processes and
Facilities - Drinking, Irrigation, Industrial Uses
• Build Up Emergency Operations Capacity and Planning
• First Responders
• Economic Recovery Plans
• Encourage Natural Gas Power Plant development (vs. Coal)
•And Alternative Energy – Solar, Wind
What is Needed Now ?
• Consider Groundwater Monitoring or Permitting
• Cannot Understand or Control what isn’t measured
• Evolution of USACE 3.0 – Hybrid Model – Oversight like FAA
• Co-Sponsor and Community Feedback can Drive this
• Evolution of Environmental Movement 2.0 – Collaboration
versus Confrontation and Lawsuits
• May Need to Adjust Water Rights Laws in the West (Prior
Appropriation based rights) – May Require State
Constitutional Amendment
• Help Voters and Federal Government Understand the Need
for a Full-Resourced Transportation Budget and Plan (“son of
MAP-21”)
• Implement Water Conservation Measures
• State and Local Goals and Programs
• NRCS Program Leverage
What is Needed Now ?
• Find a Way to Invest in Education
• K through 12 Programs
• Community College Cooperation with Industry and Ag
• College and University Partnerships with Communities
• Innovative CO-OP, Work-Study, Internship and Financing
Programs
• Better Educated Population to UNDERSTAND socioeconomic and environmental trends to COLLABORATE on
mitigation and solutions!
• Active Involvement of You!
BACKGROUND
Nothing is as easy as it
looks or sounds
Final Thoughts
Preamble to the U.S. Constitution
We the People of the United States, in Order to form
a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic
Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote
the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty
to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish
this Constitution for the United States of America.
GMO Crops – Can Mitigate Water Demand But
What Qualifies as GMO?
GMO Crops – Can Mitigate Water Demand But
What Qualifies as GMO?
Demand Increase - New Industrial Revolution in the US
or the “Return” of Manufacturing to US - Transport
Water Infrastructure and Total
Infrastructure Spending
Between 1962 to
2010…
Total funding increased
% GDP decreased
Greater burden on state
and local funding
sources as
infrastructure ages.
Increasing Inequality and Lower Income
Where Will the World’s Water Conflicts Erupt?
As published in Popular Science, June
2014, pp. 52-53,
http://www.popsci.com/sites/popsci.com
/files/water-lightbox.jpg
Last Time We Were Almost this Warm?
Global Average Temperature
Medieval Warming Period Effects
Good Effects in Europe
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bad Effects in Europe
• Expansion into marginal
lands – more vulnerability
• North Sea Rise – 31 inches
• Conquest, Raiding,
Constant warfare
• Mongol invasions
• Massive clear-cutting –
more vulnerability
• Inter-civilizational Trade –
more social and security risk
•
Population Growth
Mild and Stable Weather
Expansion of Ag
State Formation
Exploration
High Middle Ages art,
literature
Golden age of Architects
and Engineers 12-1300s
Inter-civilizational trade –
more wealth
Medieval Warming Period Effects
Good Effects in Mexico None
Bad Effects in Central
America
• Population exceeded
carrying capacity of the land
• 5-8 Million people in 600 CE
• Migrated to small selfsustaining villages where
they live to this day
• Sustained El Nino cycles
lead to drought in Maya
peninsula and modern
Mexico – 300 year Drought
• Resort to violence and
extreme religious ideology
(P, S, T!)
• Social rigidity limited
innovation
• Collapse 900 CE due to
ecological, social and
political factors
Changes in the
ENSO and NAO
Cycles deliver
extreme
weather
effects – not
always
warming
Is WRRDA 2014 The Beginning of a
Federal Response?
• Developing Implementing Guidance – With You!
• Needs your input to exploit full authorities to benefit public
• Needs your active support to achieve in a relevant timeline
• Section 1001, 2, 4, 5 – SMART Planning streamlining studies and
reviews, Section 1005 Streamlined environmental review
process
• Section 1007 – Speeds 408 Permission Review Process
• Section 1014 – Raised trigger for Indep. External Peer Review
• Section 1013 – Improve PPA Templates
• Section 1014, 1015 – Allows on-Federal Entities to Contribute
Funds to advance projects or to execute – Studies,
Construction and receive credits
Is WRRDA 2014 The Beginning of a
Federal Response?
• Section 1017 – Explore Non-Federal Entities paying for Expanded
Lock Operations
• Section 1018, 1019, 2020-2022 – Clarifies Credits for IN-Kind
contributions flexibly applied with some transferable between
projects
• Section 1043, 5014 – Directs Public-Private Partnership Pilot
Program (Up to 15 Proposals) Section 1044 - Revised IEPR
triggers
• Section 2002 – Refines Inland NAV Project Mgt, Enables ECI, DB, Continuing Contracts and Milcon-type mechanisms, Expands
IWUB’s Roles and Responsibilities, Requires a 20-year Inland NAV
and Inter-coastal NAV Plan (within 5 years).
• Section 2003-6, 2013 – Adjust Rules on IWTF, Olmsted
Is WRRDA 2014 The Beginning of a
Federal Response?
• Section 2010 – Closure for NAV of Upper ST. Anthony Falls L & D
• Section 4002 – USACE and NOAA upgrade Water Level
Forecasting, Special Status of Upper Mississippi Basin and need
for the NESP, USACE examine safety of NAV in extreme low water
• Section 1036 – Authorizes USACE to construct a locallypreferred plan for a higher level of protection authorized in a
WRDA, if feasible. NFS funds all costs above Federally-authorized
level
• Section 3001 - Establishes National Dam Safety Program for
awareness and outreach to public
• Section 3011 – Allows NFS to remain eligible for PL 84-99
program
if significant progress is being made on meeting Federal r
requirements to improve the system
Is WRRDA 2014 The Beginning of a
Federal Response?
• Section 3023,24,25 – Directs USACE to evaluate
strategies for managing comprehensive risks of extreme
weather events using all tools incl. eco-system restoration
and develop potential rehab or improvement to reduce risk
• Section 5023 – Directs USACE to study FRM and NAV
infrastructure in the Mississippi Basin to improve the
system in flood and drought
• Section 3016 – Establishes National Levee Safety
Program
• Section 1008 – Makes non-federal hydropower
development on USACE civil works features a national
priority with USACE report in two years
Is WRRDA 2014 The Beginning of a
Federal Response?
• Section 3017 – Allows USACE to restore flood risk reduction
projects to their authorized level of protection in response to
settlement, subsidence and relative sea level rise
• Section 3027 – Directs USACE to establish an emergency
communications network for notification and help when rain and
runoff exceed lowest risk to life and property
• Section 5023 – Study Flood Risk and NAV in Upper Miss. Basin
• Title V, SubSection C – Creates WIFIA $175 M over 5 years
• Loans for Projects worth more than $20 M
•
Over $9.1 Billion of new Authorized projects out of $14.6
Billion nationally are in the Mississippi Watershed
Poor People Did Not Cause the Housing
Debt Crisis
US Pipelines Overview
Source: Pipeline Safety Update, U.S. Department
of Transportation, September 2012,
https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=722017
Aging Pipeline Infrastructure
Source: Pipeline Safety Update, U.S. Department of
Transportation, September 2012,
https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=722017
Liquid Pipeline Spills with
Environment Consequences
Source: Pipeline Safety Update, U.S. Department of
Transportation, September 2012,
https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=722017
Significant Incidents for Gas
Transmission Pipelines
Source: Pipeline Safety Update, U.S. Department of Transportation, September 2012,
https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=722017
Pipeline System Significant and
Serious Incidents per year – 2005-2010
Source: Pipeline Safety Update, U.S. Department of Transportation, September 2012,
https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=722017
Education Inflation Far Beyond Rate of Overall Inflation
Locks in Economic Disadvantages