docPolicy Assessment Tool - MCDA - The Bartlett
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Policy Assessment Tool - MCDA - The Bartlett
Stakeholder-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Introduction 5th June 2013, London Evelina Trutnevyte (UCL Energy Institute) Zaid Chalabi (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, The Bartlett School of Graduate Studies at UCL) The aims of the stakeholder-based MultiCriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) • System dynamics exercise will result in a simulation model of policy options for the UK housing • The aims of the stakeholder-based MCDA: – Assess the policy options – Combine the stakeholder priorities and the modeling outcomes – Acknowledge the existence of multiple criteria Example Assessing the energy policy options for a Swiss region Trutnevyte, E., Stauffacher, M., Scholz, R. W. (2011). Supporting energy initiatives in small communities by linking visions with energy scenarios and multi-criteria assessment. Energy Policy, 39, 7884-7895. Stakeholder ideas and knowledge Policy option 1 Policy option 2 Future energy system Policy option 3 … “Opening-up” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) Stakeholder ideas and knowledge Stakeholder ideas of the relevant criteria Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 1 Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 2 Future energy system Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 3 Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs … Criteria 2: Emissions Criteria 3: Employment “Opening-up” … “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) Stakeholder ideas and knowledge Stakeholder ideas of the relevant criteria Stakeholder preferences for the criteria weightings Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 1 Criteria 3: Employment Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 2 Future energy system Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 3 Criteria 3: Employment … Group criteria weightings Criteria 1: Costs Individual criteria weightings … Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 1: Costs … Criteria 2: Emissions Criteria 3: Employment “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) Stakeholder ideas and knowledge Stakeholder ideas of the relevant criteria Stakeholder preferences for the criteria weightings Criteria 1: Costs Policy option 1 Criteria 3: Employment Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 2 Future energy system Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 3 Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs … Criteria 2: Emissions Group criteria weightings Criteria 1: Costs Individual criteria weightings … Aggregation into overall weighted performance Criteria 2: Emissions Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 3: Employment “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) Stakeholder ideas and knowledge Stakeholder ideas of the relevant criteria Stakeholder preferences for the criteria weightings Criteria 1: Costs Policy option 1 Criteria 3: Employment Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 2 Future energy system Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs Criteria 2: Emissions Policy option 3 Criteria 3: Employment … Criteria 1: Costs … Criteria 2: Emissions Group criteria weightings Criteria 1: Costs Individual criteria weightings … Aggregation into overall weighted performance Criteria 2: Emissions Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 3: Employment “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) Example: performance of each policy option against each criterion High performance Low performance Policy option 1 Policy option 2 Policy option 3 Example: Criteria weightings Stakeholder 2 Stakeholder 1 GHG emissions Group (joint) Example: Overall weighted performance Policy performance Criteria weightings Individual stakeholder Group result Policy option 2 Policy option 3 Policy option 5 Policy option 1 Policy option 3 Policy option 5 Policy option 1 Policy option 2 Policy option 4 Policy option 4 Overall weighted performance In this project Today: the shared list of criteria Final project workshop System dynamics modelling Criteria 1 Policy option 1 Criteria 3 Criteria 2 Policy option 2 Criteria 3 … UK housing Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Policy option 3 Criteria 3 … Criteria 1 … Criteria 2 Group criteria weightings Criteria 1 Individual criteria weightings … Aggregation into overall weighted performance Criteria 2 Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 3 “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) Interactive MCDA workshop (planned for early 2014) Overall weighted performance Weighting s Policy performance against each criterion Stakeholder-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Developing the shared list of criteria 5th June 2013, London Evelina Trutnevyte (UCL Energy Institute) Zaid Chalabi (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, The Bartlett School of Graduate Studies at UCL) In this project Today: the shared list of criteria Final project workshop System dynamics modelling Criteria 1 Policy option 1 Criteria 3 Criteria 2 Policy option 2 Criteria 3 … UK housing Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Policy option 3 Criteria 3 … Criteria 1 … Criteria 2 Group criteria weightings Criteria 1 Individual criteria weightings … Aggregation into overall weighted performance Criteria 2 Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 3 “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) In this project Today: the shared list of criteria Final project workshop Today System dynamics modelling Criteria 1 Policy option 1 Criteria 3 Criteria 2 Policy option 2 Criteria 3 … UK housing Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Policy option 3 Criteria 3 … Criteria 1 … Criteria 2 Group criteria weightings Criteria 1 Individual criteria weightings … Aggregation into overall weighted performance Criteria 2 Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 3 “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) The aim and the method • Derive a list of ≤10 core criteria for assessing the policy options – These criteria will be used in the interactive MCDA workshop – After this exercise the criteria weightings will not matter • The card game – Based on an adapted silent negotiation (Pictet and Bollinger, 2005) The initial list of criteria • The criteria come from the individual interviews • We merged and refined the list into criteria that: – Eliminate repetition and mutual dependence – Enable distinction between policy options – Balanced level of aggregation • Suggested detailed descriptions The initial list of criteria • In total, there are 27 criteria that were at least once mentioned as one’s 1st or 2nd priority in the interviews • Among these criteria, there are 9 criteria that were often ranked high • These 9 criteria form our suggested initial list (≤10) • This list shall be revised today Please have a look at this initial list and mark your personal 5 most important criteria More important The initial list of 9 criteria (pre-ranked) The list of 18 other criteria Less important … … More important • Please express your individual priorities, while building a shared list of criteria • It’s a silent negotiation! Less important … … More important •Please draw a card with a number •Please make TWO moves, when it is your turn •There shall not be more than 4 cards in one row Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list 3. No move Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list 3. No move 4-cards rule: There shall not be more than 4 cards in on line (use 2 moves for interchanging) Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list 3. No move 4-cards rule: There shall not be more than 4 cards in on line (use 2 moves for interchanging) Less important … … More important The list of criteria? • Please iterate the process twice • We will draw a line after up to 10 criteria • Vote Less important … … More important What counts as ONE move: 1.Move one card one line up or down in the core list (horizontal move is not a move!) 2.Move one card from the second list to the bottom of the core list 3. No move 4-cards rule: There shall not be more than 4 cards in on line (use 2 moves for interchanging) Less important … … Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 1. Carbon emissions from housing 2. Community connection 3. Fuel poverty 4. Housing adaptation to climate change 5. Housing affordability 6. Mental & emotional wellbeing 7. Physical wellbeing/health 8. Policy coherence 9. Social and income equity 1. Carbon emissions from housing 2. Community connection 3. Fuel poverty 4. Green space and neighbourhood 5. Housing affordability 6. Mental 7. Physical wellbeing/health 8. Social and income equity 1. Carbon emissions from housing 2. Community connection 3. Employment 4. Fuel poverty 5. Green spaces and neighbourhood quality 6. Housing adaptation to climate change 7. Housing affordability 8. Physical wellbeing/health Next steps • This is the revised list of criteria for the interactive MCDA • Next steps: – Your inputs for developing measurable indicators for these criteria – The policy performance will be assessed against these criteria in the SD simulation modelling – Interactive MCDA workshop in early 2014 In this project Today: the shared list of criteria Final project workshop System dynamics modelling Criteria 1 Policy option 1 Criteria 3 Criteria 2 Policy option 2 Criteria 3 … UK housing Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Policy option 3 Criteria 3 … Criteria 1 … Criteria 2 Group criteria weightings Criteria 1 Individual criteria weightings … Aggregation into overall weighted performance Criteria 2 Strengths and weaknesses of the different policy options Criteria 3 “Opening-up” … “Closing-down” “Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008) THANK YOU!
