Psychology of a Survivalist Subculture

“The Psychology of the Survivalist Subculture”
Debrief/Discuss
How Do They Believe It Will Happen?
*Chosen as the most likely to the least likely:
Significant Earthquake
Significant Hurricane
Terrorist Attack
Financial Collapse
Significant Blackout (Solar Flare, etc.)
Pandemic, Super-Virus
Nuclear Fallout
Others: Peak Oil, Super Volcano, Drought, Flooding
*National Geographic Channel poll, partnered with Kelton Research
BLACK SWAN EVENT
The definition of a black swan according to Nassim Taleb, author of the book ‘The Black
Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable’ is:
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is
unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an
explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
EMP
A switch connects the capacitors to
the stator, sending an electrical current
through the wires. This generates an
intense magnetic field.
•A fuse mechanism ignites the
explosive material. The explosion
travels as a wave through the middle of
the armature cylinder.
•As the explosion makes its way
through the cylinder, the cylinder
comes in contact with the stator
winding. This creates a short circuit,
cutting the stator off from its power
supply.
•The moving short circuit compresses
the magnetic field, generating an
intense electromagnetic burst.
Locations of Super Volcano structures:
U.S.
oYellowstone
•NW corner Wyoming
oLong Valley
•Eastern CA Near Mammoth Mountain
oValles Caldera
•Jemez Mountains northern New Mexico
Indonesia
oLake Toba, North Sumatra
New Zealand
oTaupo Volcano, North Island
Japan
oAira Caldera, Kyūshū,
New Madrid Fault Area
The New Madrid fault zone is six times bigger than the San Andreas
fault zone in California and it covers portions of Illinois, Indiana,
Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, more than 500 measurable
earthquakes have been recorded in central Arkansas between September and
December 2010.
A magnitude-3.8 earthquake that shook north-central Indiana on December 30th
2010 is being called "unprecedented." It was strong enough to actually cause cracks
along the ground and it was felt in portions of Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and Kentucky.
More than 3,000 red-wing blackbirds fell out of the sky dead in the Arkansas town of
Beebe on New Year's Eve 2011.
Large numbers of dead birds were also found in Kentucky right around Christmas
2010.
Approximately 500 dead blackbirds and starlings were also recently discovered in
Pointe Coupee Parish, Louisiana.
Approximately 100,000 fish washed up dead on the shores of the Arkansas River in
2011.
PEAK OIL
WHAT WILL THE PREPPERS DO?
Storage
Fortify
Weaponize
Escape Routes
Survival Skills
Sustainable Living
VARIATIONS OF PREPPERS
Community Rebuilders
Homesteaders/Off-the-Grid
Extreme Preppers/Stockpilers
Modest Preppers/Stockpilers
Hunker Down vs. Mobile
Militaristic/Militia
Video clips 1 & 2:
‘Doomsday Preppers’
South Carolina Farmland
&
Utah Foothills
National Geographic Channel
partnered with Kelton Research
to conduct a „Doomsday‟ survey.
The Survey was conducted Jan. 2012.
They gauged Americans‟
preparedness levels and mind-set
related to a potential
“Doomsday” scenario…
Here are some of the results.
85% of the nation is not ready for a devastating
event.
More than 62% of Americans think the world will
experience a major catastrophe in less than 20 years.
Nearly three out of every four people (71%) envision
a major disaster in their lifetime as an act of God,
not man.
27% believe that the Mayan calendar’s prediction
about a calamitous event in December 2012 will be
at least “somewhat true.”
Among those who feel unprepared, 40% cite the
lasting effects of the recession as the reason for their
unpreparedness.
Nearly half (49%) of Americans would forgo new
high-end appliances in a new home if it had a safe
room or bomb shelter instead.
If doomsday were to arrive, nearly four in 10 (39%)
think they would not last two weeks based on the
supplies they have on hand.
Video clip 2:
‘Doomsday Preppers’
Suburban Sustainability
Dennis McClung
The Suburban Prepper
"I'm preparing for a coronal mass ejection in 2012
that would likely take out the electrical grid and knock
civilization back to the Stone Age."
Featured in the following segment
Dennis McClung
The Suburban Prepper
Here are profiles of several other
‘Doomsday Preppers’
Paul and Gloria
The Retiree Preppers
"We're preparing for a polar shift that
will cause a sudden climate change,
and change life as we know it forever."
Both former soldiers, Paul and Gloria are an off-the-grid couple.
Live on property in Texas. Paul tends to livestock (35 goats, 16 ducks,
four pigs) & building. Gloria dries & cans vegetables and other
goods. Large extended family. Well armed. Extensive shipping
container fortress. Regularly drill for evacuation. Two school buses
serve as mobile units, w) alternate site selected for rallying point.
Paul and Gloria
The Retiree Preppers
Tim Ralston
The Innovator
He believes a foreign power may hit
America with an EMP attack that
disables the electrical grid and throws
people into a panic.
Scottsdale, AZ: Tim Ralston has built a business catering to the
survival-minded set.
Ralston trains his children in the use of firearms so they are
prepared for doomsday.
To prepare, Tim is readying his family to bug out to the Arizona
desert, where they will live in a shipping container specially
outfitted for survival purposes.
Among other inventions, he has created the Crovel: a hybrid strong,
lightweight multipurpose crow bar, spear, shovel, axe.
Tim Ralston
The Innovator
Preston White
The Johnny Appleseed
Fears a global nuclear disaster.
Preston White, a Colorado computer programmer says he
has invested more than $40,000 in over 11,000 seeds.
If Preston planted all of his seeds, he claims he could fill up
hundreds of thousands of acres of land with radiation free
food.
Preston White
The Johnny Appleseed
Pat Brabble
The Southern Gentleman
He believes our country is on the brink of
experiencing hyperinflation, which will
unleash civil unrest all across the country.
Pat, a non-drinking, church-goer, is stocking up on ammo
and alcohol, envisioning a world where the latter is the
ultimate bartering tool.
Pat has readied a secret room in his barn that is full of guns,
ammo and plenty of alcohol.
Pat and his wife don’t drink, but the two believe that in an
America gone mad, hard liquor will be the new dollar.
Pat Brabble
The Southern Gentleman
Megan Hurwitt
The Young Urban Prepper
“I’m prepping to survive a catastrophic oil
crisis.”
Megan Hurwitt, lives in the 4th largest city: Houston, Texas.
She carries a compact “go bag” with her at all times.
Inside the small gadget bag you’ll find a compact mess kit, survival
knife, compass, flint, pepper spray, family photos, SD card with
important financial, identification and medical documents, as well as a
few other hygienic essentials.
Fearing that that roads/highways might quickly become inaccessible
(as they did during Hurricane Ike), Megan plans to backpack south
through the city to an awaiting bug out vehicle.
Megan Hurwitt
The Young Urban Prepper
Dennis Evers
The “Godfather” Prepper
“I’m prepping to protect my family against
global chaos caused by hyperinflation.”
Lives on a farm in rural Colorado, with his extended family: 11
children & a growing number of grandkids.
A prepper for years—before he even knew he was prepping—
because you need to store a lot of food to feed an army of kids.
Largely self-sufficient, they can live off the land.
Organized, with specialties delegated to the older members of the
family: i.e. Security, Fuel, Technology/Communications, etc.
Dennis Evers
The “Godfather” Prepper
Kellene Bishop
The Gourmet Prepper
“I’m prepping for a collapse of our financial
system that will mean the end of the world
as we know it.”
Kellene lives in Orem, Utah. Her prepping comes from her faith,
which espouses the virtues of self-sufficiency and preparedness.
She has huge quantities of food stored throughout the house with
which she prepares gourmet meals.
She teaches a rape prevention class, because as society falls apart,
women are often the first victims.
Kellene plans to do the same and help feed others if the world comes
to an end.
Kellene Bishop
The Gourmet Prepper
Christopher Nyerges
The Street Survivor
"I'm prepping for a killer
earthquake that could completely
flatten the city of L.A."
Christopher Nyegres, has trained himself to live off of only what the
land provides…in Los Angeles County.
"What would happen if four million people were suddenly without highways,
electricity, water, or food? The USGS predicts that in the next 25 years, California has
a 60 percent chance of a magnitude 7 quake or higher.
Christopher has learned to live off the common shrubs and weeds that
grow nearby. Some plants he uses for food, medicinal purposes, and to
harness water.
He carries a flint for fire, can make fire with a wood-carved drill and a
shoestring.
Christopher Nyerges
The Street Survivor
Kathy Harrison
The Pollyanna Prepper
"I’m preparing for a black swan event like
a catastrophic new Madrid earthquake."
Kathy has a tight, self-reliant family unit.
Grow and can much of their own food.
Husband Bruce can make anything out of wood.
They approach the end of days as community rebuilders.
They regularly invite community members to participate in their cider
pressing and canning.
They have chosen not to include guns.
Plan to use honey as bartering in the aftermath.
Kathy Harrison
The Doris Day of Doom
How did they learn this behavior?
Have they been conditioned?
And, if so, how?
Conditioning
Modeling
Intrigue
Belief
Fear
How would they justify it,
if it didn‟t happen?
Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance
• Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter
1956 Study When Prophecy Fails
• Humans are sensitive to inconsistencies between
actions and beliefs.
• Recognition of this inconsistency will cause dissonance,
and will motivate an individual to resolve the
dissonance.
• Dissonance will be resolved in one of three basic ways:
– Change beliefs
– Change actions
– Change perception of action
Although, „Doomsday Preppers‟
remain a minority, what explains
the pre-existing fascination and
intrigue surrounding the
Apocalypse for so many others?
e.g. Books, Movies, Television, Video Games, etc.
What are the ways in which
Americans have prepared?
Let’s see what they said in their
survey.
The Question: Which of the following, if any, have you ever done to prepare for a
potential catastrophe? Please choose all that apply.
Response %
Collect or Store Canned or Non-Perishable Food
45%
Collect or Store Drinking Water
43%
Stock Up on Batteries
42%
Keep a Full Tank of Gas in My Car
34%
Have a “Go Bag” With the Most Necessary Supplies
33%
Learn Basic Survival Skills, Such as How to Start a Fire or Stitch a Wound
30%
Own at Least One Weapon, Such as a Fully Loaded Shotgun
26%
Have a Substantial Amount of Cash On Hand
24%
Grow My Own Food, Such as Fruit or Vegetables
21%
Plan an Escape Route to Leave Their Neighborhoods or Towns
20%
Run Practice Drills to Leave Neighborhoods/Towns Quickly
9%
Develop My Own Source of Water
9%
Develop My Own Source of Power, Such as Wind or Solar
9%
Build a Bomb Shelter or Safe Room
8%
Keep My Own Livestock
6%
One in four Americans have
done nothing to prepare.
What
will
you
do?
“The Psychology of the Survivalist Subculture”
Thank you!