CABARAN KE ARAH PENGURUSAN AIR SECARA MAMPAN
Transcription
CABARAN KE ARAH PENGURUSAN AIR SECARA MAMPAN
WATER: OUR RIGHT TO HAVE A CLEAN, SUFFICIENT, SAFE, AND AFFORDABLE WATER. Prof. Ismail Abustan (Professor of Urban Water) Pusat Pengajian Kejuruteraan Awam Universiti Sains Malaysia ceismail@eng.usm.my Visiting Professor of King Saud University (2013-14) Visiting Professor of Kyoto University(2008 -9; 2014-15) Disediakan untuk: Kem Pemimpin Muda Prihatin Air Kebangsaan, 19-21 August, 2014 , Putrajaya Water is a gift of Allah, We should treasure it as such Kepentingan air dalam kehidupan manusia telah dinyatakan dalam al Quran: “Apakah kamu tidak memperhatikan bahawa sesungguhnya Allah menurunkan air dari langit, maka diaturNya menjadi sumber-sumber air di bumi, kemudian ditumbuhkanNya dengan air itu tanamtanaman yang bermacam-macam warnanya…..” Surah az Zumar – 21 Water Cycle Dijelaskan oleh Allah dalam al Quran: “Dan Kami jadikan padanya gunung-gunung yang tinggi, dan Kami beri minum kamu dengan air yang tawar.” Surah al Mursalaat – 27 “Allahlah yang telah menciptakan langit dan bumi dan menurunkan air hujan dari langit, kemudian Dia mengeluarkan dengan air hujan berbagai buah-buahan menjadi rezeki untukmu, dan Dia telah menundukkan bahtera bagimu, supaya bahtera itu belayar di lautan dengan kehendakNya, dan Dia telah menundukkan pula bagimu sungai-sungai.” Surah Ibrahim – 32 Basic Water Cycle Precipitation Evaporation Evaporation (ET) Evaporation Ocean Infiltration runoff Aquifer Precipitation Evaporation/ET Surface Water Groundwater 4 Blue & Green Water - perspective Precipitation – the basic water resource GW GW GW GW GW 5 Management and Ecosystems: Living with Change Adapted from: GWP (M. Falkenmark), 2003, Water Blue & Green Water – Pathways percentages Consumptive water use by terrestrial ecosystems as seen in a global perspective. (Falkenmark in SIWI Seminar 2001). 6 Kenapa isu air penting? Sumber air terhad!! 97.5% jumlah air di dunia terdiri dari air masin 2.5% adalah sumber air tawar 2/3 jumlah air tawar terbeku di kutub dan ais glasier Jadi, cuma 1% jumlah air di dunia berbentuk cecair, air tawar Dari jumlah ini, 98% terdiri dari air bumi Oleh itu, 0.02% dari jumlah air di dunia terdapat di sungai dan tasik tempat di mana manusia mendapat kebanyakan sumber air yang digunakan. Air Dalam Tubuh Manusia Simpanan Tubuh Otak Pengambilan Air Minum Makanan Lain-lain Kehilangan 10% - hilang upaya bergerak Kehilangan 20% - kematian 66% 85% 50% 40% 10% United Nation’s Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights in General Comment No. 15, 2002 stated that: Human right Use of Water • • • • • Sufficient Safe Acceptable Physically accessible Affordable water for personal and domestic uses • Prevent death from dehydration • Reduce the risk of water related disease • Provide for consumption, cooking, • personal and domestic hygienic requirements Kenapa isu air penting di Malaysia? Air milik semua orang, anugerah Allah!! Air milik semua orang di dalam sesuatu negeri/negara Halangan dari pembaziran atau kecuaian penggunaan Air yang hendak dipindahkan mesti melalui hak/kontrak air yang tertentu World scenario There is a water crisis today. But the crisis is not about having too little water to satisfy our needs. It is a crisis of managing water so badly that billions of people -and the environment- suffer badly. World Water Vision Report, 2000 2 Global Water Crisis World: 1.1 billion people (18 %), mostly the poor, without access to safe drinking water 2.4 billion people (40 %) without hygienic sanitation Asia: 60 % of the world population without access to safe drinking water (670 million people) 80 % of the world population without hygienic sanitation (1.9 billion people) Source: Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment 2000 Report by WHO and UNICEF, December 2000 3 Potential sources for International Conflict China vs Laos vs Thailand vs Vietnam vs Kemboja (Sg. Mekong) India vs Bangladesh (Sg. Ganges) Thailand vs Malaysia (Sg. Golok) Malaysia vs Singapura …?? Pengurusan Sumber Air Bersepadu: Sumber air merupakan pemangkin pertumbuhan pembangunan socio-ekonomi Pertambahan permintaan dan kekangan ke atas sumber air Peningkatan pencemaran air Pendekatan bekalan dalam pengurusan sumber air kini adalah tidak mapan (unsustainable) Ketua Penagrah, Unit Perancang Ekonomi Jabatan Perdana Menteri (Asia Water, 2004) Malaysian scenario Water supply services Water is a state matter Federal Government provides loan for public water supply infrastructure and grant for rural water supply National Water Resources Council Move towards greater involvement of Federal Government in managing water resources and water supply services. PRODUCTION VALUES OF WATER RESOURCES IN MALAYSIA Source of Water (rainfall: 990 billion m3 yearly) groundwater recharge 64 billion m3 atmosphere 360 billion m3 (evapo-transpiration) surface runoff 566 billion m3 Sabah 113 billion m3 Peninsular Malaysia 147 billion m3 Sarawak 306 billion m3 Sarawak 306 billion m3 Malaysia – Water Demand (bil m3/yr) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 2000 2020 Domestic & Industry 2040 2060 Agriculture Annual Increase of - 12% Doubling every two decades National Drinking Water Quality Standards Parameters Maximum Acceptable Value Fluoride 0.4 – 0.6 mg/l Turbidity < 5 NTU pH 6.5 - 9.0 Colour < 15 TCU Free Residuel Chlorine 0.2 – 5.0 mg/l Aluminium < 0.2 mg/l Manganese < 0.1 mg/l Source: Ministry of Health National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (DOE) Classification Usage Class I Conservation of natural environment. Water supply l – Practically no treatment necessary. Fishery l – Very sensitive aquatic species Class IIA Water supply ll – Conventional treatment required Fishery ll – Sensitive aquatic species Class IIB Recreational use with body contact Class III Water supply lll – Extensive treatment required Fishery lll – Common of economic value and tolerant species; livestock drinking Class IV Irrigation Class V None of the above Source: DOE 19 WATER SECURITY CONCEPT: Malaysian scenario National Water Supply Coverage, 2003 Urban Rural 97 % 86 % Total 93 % Sewerage Services Coverage by IWK, 2002 Population served Connected to STP Septic tanks Total 11,297,903 4,743,400 16,041,303 Rural sewerage facilities provided by the Ministry of Health cover a population of 7.61 million in 2002. 9 KEY NATIONAL STATISTICS (POTABLE WATER) 2010 Raw Water Source : Mainly Surface Water with minor groundwater Design Capacity : 16,771 MLD Production Capacity : 14,065 MLD Total No. of Treatment plant : 458 Total Length of Pipes : 131,286 KM Pipe Material : AC (31.9%), PE (16.8%), MS (24.7%), uPVC (15.5%), DI (7.4%), CI (1.2%), Others (2.5%) Total Connection :6,459,663 Connections : Domestic (86.7%), Non Domestic (13.3%) Per capita Consumption : 225 litre/cap/d NRW : 36% Population Served : Overall (94.2%) Urban (96.8%), Rural (89.7%) Evolution of Sewerage Systems in Malaysia Prior to 1950-s Technology Septic Tank Pour Flush Early Days in Malaya 1950-s OP/AL Imhoff Tank 1960-s 1970-s Activated Sludge/ Fully Mechanised Biological Filters Plant 1980-s 1990-s Primitive / Primary Treatment Partial / Full Secondary Treatment (Address Public Health) (Address River Pollution) 2000 Year Future Tertiary (Address Environment) Fifth NKRA (National Key Results Areas) : Improving Rural Basic Infrastructure % of Rural Houses with Access to Clean or Treated Water 100 90 80 70 % 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2012 Year Commitment by Malaysian Government: Ensure access to clean or treated water to over 360,000 additional households by 2012. This will mean in Sabah and Sarawak, the percentage of rural houses with access to clean or treated water will reach approximately 60% in 2010 and 90% in 2012, a significant increase from 57% currently. For this purpose, a sum of RM2 billion is allocated AUDIT FINDINGS…… There are number of weaknesses found in the drinking water quality management: •Most Catchment Area Not Gazetted. •Lack Of Awareness Among The State Water Authorities. •High Cost Involved •Fragmentation •Raw Water Quality -Deterioration In Water Quality Illegal Activities In The Catchment Area - Farming, - Agriculture - Livestock - Garbage Disposal - Deforestation Illegal Activities In The River Basin - Effluent Discharge - From STP - Leachate Discharge – Solid Waste Disposal (Landfill) - Industrial Discharge – Chemical & Biological - Sludge Discharge From WTP - Domestic Discharge – Grey & Dark Water - Restaurant Discharge – Oil & Grease - Sand Mining Water Catchment Area, Border Basin, Dam And Reserve Forest in the Selangor state AUDIT FINDINGS…… Ageing Infrastructure 1. Treatment Plant - Using Conventional Treatment Vs Detoriate Raw Water Quality Not calibrated - Laboratory Equipment – Unreliable Data Old equipment - 64% of Fluoride Dosing System not Functional 2. Distribution System - Main Pipeline & Reticulation System - Burst & Leaks – Turbid Water, - Corroded Pipe –Rusty Coloured Water - Sampling Stations - Site Testing – In-situ Test – equipment not well maintain - Weekly/ Monthly Testing – Unreliable Data - cased by – wrong sampling procedure - sample not send on time 3. Plumbing System - G.I Communications Pipe - Corroded - Old Storage Tank – Corroded – (press steel tank) – resulting in colored water Air adalah komoditi utama Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty Water storage in m3/cap 6,150 4,729 3,255 North America Australia Brazil 1,406 China 1,287 Laos Ethiopia 43 South Africa 746 Thailand 2,486 Income per capita Water storage and the poverty trap 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India Water Supply The Marina Barrage is a dam built across the 350-metre wide Marina Channel to keep out seawater, forming Singapore's first reservoir in the city and 15th reservoir. Marina Reservoir, together with Punggol and Serangoon reservoirs, increased Singapore’s water catchment area from half to two-thirds of Singapore’s land area in 2011. Local catchment water is one of the Four National Taps, with the other three being imported water, NEWater and desalinated water. As one of the pillars of local water supply, Marina Reservoir will meet more than 10% of Singapore's current water demand. EXTREME WEATHER AND DISASTER ADAPTATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Professor Dr. Ismail Abustan Professor Urban Water School of Civil Engineering Universiti Sains Malaysia Visiting Professor King Saud University, Riyadh , KSA (2013-14) Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan (2008 -10, 2014 - 15) ceismail@eng.usm.my INTRODUCTION Extreme weather includes weather phenomena that are at the extremes of the historical distribution especially severe or unseasonal weather. An increase in extreme weather events has been attributed to anthropogenic global warming. Global warming playing a significant role in the rising number of extreme events such as windstorms and floods which have tripled since 1980, a trend that is expected to persist. www.unisdr.org 34 FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS, 8 OUT OF 10 ASEAN MEMBER STATES HAVE EXPERIENCED MAJOR DISASTERS WITH ALMOST 500 THOUSAND PEOPLE DEAD OR MISSING, RECONSTRUCTION COSTS OF MORE THAN USD 10 BILLION AND MORE THAN 17 MILLION PEOPLE AFFECTED 584 million people home of mega disasters 35 Toward a disaster-resilient and safer community by 2015 South East Asia is annually affected by climate extremes, particularly floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, while large areas of the region are highly prone to flooding and influenced by moonsons. The climatic impacts will severely threaten the livelihood of poor people living in rural areas with limited adaptive capacity. (IFAD) Affect 584 million or nearly 1/10 of world population Number of disasters in ASEAN from 2001-2009: 1. Flood – 213 (13% of world total) 2. Storm – 132 (13%) 3. Earthquake – 42 (15%) 4. Landslide – 42 (24%) 5. Epidemic – 36 (6%) 6. Volcanic eruption – 15 (26%) 7. Drought – 12 (7%) 8. Wildfire – 7 (5%) Source: http://www.emdat.be Extreme weather INCREASING TREND Storm Typhoon Drought Wildfire Flood SEA (Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myamar, Philippines, Thailand & Malaysia) - 1980-2007 Number of events - 1980-2007 (South East Asia) Casualties - 1980-2007 (South East Asia) Wild Fires 1% Wave-Surge 1% Volcano 5% Drought 4% Wind Storm 32% Earthquake 9% Epidemic 8% Slides 7% Flood 33% Slides 2% Wave-Surge 69% Flood 6% Epidemic 3% Earthquake 5% Wind Storm 14% IMPACT ALL SOCIO-ECONOMIC Economic losses - 1980-2007 (South East Asia) SECTORS 85 % of events 24 % of casualties 75 % of economic losses are related to hydrometeorological hazards and conditions. Wild Fires 23% Wind Storm 26% Drought 3% Earthquake 10% Wave-Surge 13% Flood 24% Volcano 1% Expected impacts of climate change in SouthEast Asia – IPCC 4th assessment report Increased rainfall intensity, particularly during the summer monsoon, along with increase of inter-annual variability Increased exposure to extreme events, including typhoons and tropical storms, floods and landslides, heat waves, forest fire risk, and droughts. Frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific and other extreme weather events associated with El-Niño. Projected sea-level rise could flood and affect the livelihoods of millions of people in low lying areas of Southeast Asia. Major impacts are expected on water supply and agriculture, and heavily populated coastal and lowland areas of SouthEast Asia Future Changes Rainfall Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Temperature Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990 to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4) Sea level rise Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s Extreme events Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation Rahman and Alam, 2007 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia, IDRC, 2009 SEA Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards Northwestern Vietnam Droughts Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones, droughts Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise Bangkok and its surrounding area Sea level rise, floods Southern regions of Thailand Droughts, floods Philippines Cyclones, landslides, floods, droughts Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts Western and eastern area of Java Island, Indonesia Droughts, floods, landslides, sea level rise Multiple climate hazard index medium, as compared to its neighbors Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) Landslide exposure (Philippines and Indonesia) Sea level rise - 5-m inundation zone (HCMC and Bangkok are high) Protecting Development Gains, Asia Pacific Disasters Report 2010 ESCAP, UNISDR, 2010 In 30 years, SEA had 1069 disasters, 394,687 people killed, more than 273 million people affected and close to US$ 48 billion in losses due to disasters Severe Weather in Malaysia Inter-Monsoon (Apr-Mei & Sep-Okt) Nort-East Monsoon (Nov – Mac) Monsson Flood Flash Flood South West Monsoon (June–August) Haze Tropical Cyclone (May – Nov) Strong Winds and Rough Seas Past Tropical Cyclone Events In Malaysia Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996) Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999) Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001) Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996) Formed in the South China Sea as TD on Dec 21 Headed east-southeastward, strengthened into the final TS on the 24th After reaching a peak of 45 knots winds it crossed the northern part of Borneo on the 25th. Continued east-southeastward until dissipation on the 27th, south of the Philippines • Caused flooding and severe mudslides in Sabah • Leaved more than 4,000 people homeless • Destruction of coral reefs • Fatalities : 238 people • Damage : $52 million USD Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999) Stretched out from the northwest Borneo coast early on Jan 4 Developed into a TD and moved slowly to the north away from the Borneo coast, becoming TS Hilda early on Jan 6 • Caused flooding and landslides in Sabah • Fatalities : 6 people • Damage : $1.3 million USD Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001) Developed on Dec 26 at 1.4°N in the South China Sea Strengthened quickly and made landfall along extreme southeastern Malaysia Rapidly dissipated over Sumatra on Dec 28, and the remnants eventually re-organized in the North Indian Ocean • Brought flooding and landslides to eastern Malaysia • Fatalities : 5 people • Damage : $4.2 million USD Period of Flooding South West Monsoon (Jun–Aug) Nort-East Monsoon (Northern Winter) (Nov – Mac) Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct) Yearly Flooding affecting the livelihood of more than 5 million population Causes of Flooding • There are two basic types of rainfall causing flooding in Malaysia: • (i)moderate intensity, long duration rainfall covering a wide area; and • (ii) high intensity, short duration localised rainfall. The highest 5-min point intensity storm in 2003 was 222 mm/hr and lasted for 114 minutes which occurred in Kuala Lumpur and caused a major flash flood. HISTORY OF FLOODINGS IN MALAYSIA 1926 1949 59 1967 Flood Areas - 29,720 km² 9 % of land 4.9 mil. population affected Average annual flood damage 1982 : RM 100 million 2002 : RM 1 billion 2010 : RM 3 billion (accounting for drag effect & other opportunity cost loss) The problem of flooding is larger than perceived High economic cost Year Flood damage – physical cost (economic drag effect) 1992 RM326 juta (RM701j) 2002 RM1.066 billion 4.916 mil inhabitants (Drag effect RM1.83b) 10 yrs With the current rate of development, flood damage cost is expected to increase by 3x 62 1.538 mil inhabitants Flood event on 19-31 December 2006 (1st wave) 63 EXTENT OF FLOOD AREA 64 24/12/2006 66 Flood Impact No. of Casualties : 16 people No. of Evacuees : 104,023 people Evacuees No State District i) 1 Johor Johor Bahru No. of Evacuation Centers Total Family Involved No. of Evacuees Casualties 48 2,373 11,724 0 ii) Kota Tinggi 35 1,161 5,227 2 iii) Kluang 70 3,147 13,828 3 iv) Muar 126 6,432 30,441 3 v) Batu Pahat 116 5,948 27,971 5 vi) Pontian 32 710 3,286 0 vii) Segamat 72 2,442 10,286 3 viii) Mersing 9 277 1,260 0 508 22,490 104,023 16 Total 67 Flood Hit Again! on 11 until 31 January 2007 (2nd wave) 68 1st wave 2nd wave 70 Jakarta floods: Nature is fighting back Flooding in Jakarta occurs on the northwest coast of Java, at the mouth of the Ciliwung River on Jakarta Bay, which is an inlet of the Java Sea and has happened recently in 1996, 2002, 2007 , 2013 and 2014 71 Jakarta Flood : Jakarta Suffers From Massive Rains 72 Floods in Singapore 2010-2012 Singapore floods Marina Bay Sands basement hall partly floods 73 Flood in Bangkok : Economic Disaster Thailand’s 2011 Flood expressed in Figures • The worst flooding in Thailand since over 50 years with over 1/3 of the country under water • Approx. 8 Mio. people currently affected; Over 5 Billion USD in economic losses; Source: The Guardian • Insurance claims so far filed amount to approx. 3.3 Billion USD • Approx 10,000 factories worth 800 Billion THB were flooded; potential loss: 26 Billion USD • Less than 1% of the approx. 800,000 destroyed private households are insured against flood • Damages at Ayutthaya Industrial Estates estimated at 20 Billion THB by Office of the Insurance Commission 24 November 2011 Images of flood in Bangkok 75 Images of floods in Bangkok 76 Bangkok Mega Flood 2011 Kasetsat University Mega Flood in Bangkok, 2011 Bangkok Mega Flood 2011 Upstream flood Upstream flood Upstream flood Tidal effect and sea level rise Heavy rains; Tidal surge; Rain – Tidal surge; Sea level rise Flood Problems in HCMC Urban Flood Issues in HCMC Heavy rains flooded many streets Traffic congestion and environmental pollution Hundreds of houses were flooded by 40 cm. Water receded after three or five hours More than 100 locations were reported flooded repeatedly. PHILIPPINES CASE The Philippine suffers severely from extreme weather events. The intensifying tropical cyclones caused an annual average of 593 deaths and damage to property of 4.5 billion pesos (around US$ 83 million), including damage to agriculture of 3 billion pesos (around US$ 55 million). The combination of strong typhoons, excessive precipitation and landslides has caused a great deal of death and destruction in the Philippines. If we do not act urgently, climate change will further intensify the severity of extreme weather events adaptation The concept of adaptation has been variously defined. In essence, adaptation refers to the measures taken in response to climate change, to reduce the adverse impacts or to take advantage of opportunities offered by such changes. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report defines that adaptation comprises actions to reduce vulnerability or enhance resilience (Adger and others 2007). Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science Scientific investigation needed to answer: Who are most vulnerable? To what are they vulnerable? What are the causes of their vulnerability? What are their options for adaptation and what are the consequences and costs of adaptation? Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies But . . . Scientific understanding is incomplete Though sufficient to begin acting, Must continually add to knowledge and adjust policies accordingly Scientific and technical capacity is generally deficient in developing countries There is a need to advance scientific understanding and build capacity to support adaptation actions in developing countries Natural and Conflict related Hazards in Asia Pacific, OCHA, 2009 SEA coping capacity is low Ten components of coping capacity: Hazard evaluation Consequence and vulnerability assessment Awareness-raising activities Sectoral regulations Structural defences Continuity planning Early warning Emergency response Insurance and disaster funds Reconstruction and rehabilitation planning Coping capacity to disasters Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia, IDRC, 2009 Adaptive capacity to climate change (Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are high) Penutup 1. 2. 3. 4. Air merupakan sumber yang sangat sensitif kepada pencemaran, kita mesti mengambil inisiatif bagi menangani sebarang permasalahan yang dihadapi. Strategi penting bagi memastikan sumber air dipelihara oleh semua pihak dengan meningkatkan kesedaran dan kecintaan ini terhadap sumber air dan alam sekitar. Kita semua perlu disedarkan tentang hubungan akrab antara manusia dan alam sekitar. Walaupun keadaan pemuliharaan dan penjagaan alam sekitar terutamanya sumber air yang unggul masih belum tercapai, namun kita tidak boleh berputus asa daripada terus berusaha. Nasib generasi akan datang terletak di tangan kita Thank you … KYOTO, JEPUN Alangkah Indahnya Sungai Impian