The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior
Transcription
The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior
Dr. Helmut Henschel, Beyond Behavioral Finance -The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 "So far as I know, anything worth hearing is not usually uttered at seven o'clock in the morning; and if it is, it will generally be repeated at a more reasonable hour for a larger and more wakeful audience." Moss Hart Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 2 1 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 3 Bullet Points Behavioral Finance shows, that in conflict to Modern Financial Theory, we do not always behave rationally. Most of our action is governed by the subconscious, by emotions. There is no rational behavior without emotions. Knowing about emotions can help to control and employ them for better investment decisions. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 4 2 Content page 1 MFT, behavioral finance and neuroscience 5 2 The new neuroscience 20 2.1 Rediscovery of emotion and the subconscious 20 2.2 The nucleus accumbens: forecasting is fun 71 2.3 Dopamine, the neurotransmitter of happiness 78 2.4 Subconscious perception and act: mother’s little helper 98 2.5 Descartes’ error, no rational decisions without emotion 100 2.6 Memories are made of this 113 2.7 Hemispheres, cranial volume, and intelligence 129 2.8 Citations 139 3 Conclusion: seven suggestions (not only) for investors 143 4 Current developments in neuroscience 190 6 Nothing to worry about? 239 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 5 Investment and Investment Analysis - Rational? CAPM, MPT, and MFT: rational expectations and decisions Emotions lead to irrational/bad decisions. “Be fearful only when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” (Warren Buffett) Emotions are important, but only the emotions of the other market participants. They can be used to their detriment. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 6 3 Failings of modern finance theory Modern finance theory explains the reality of financial markets but insufficiently: e.g. many players are reluctant to use the benefits of diversification for risk reduction, e.g. trading volume is much higher than could be explained by new information, e.g. actively managed equity funds still dominate, e.g. volatility of stock prices is much higher than could be explained by theory Behavioral Finance - a supplement to modern finance theory, analysis of human behavior for better forecasts, decisions Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 7 Failings of modern portfolio theory Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 8 4 Cognition, valuation, decision Three stages of human action What is the situation, where are we? To see, perceive, recognize, explain, forecast 2. What do I want? To evaluate, weight, judge 3. What has to be done? To decide, take action Behavioral Finance shows that there are deficiencies at each of the three stages, often systematic, sometimes avoidable. 1. The three stages describe the logical process. De facto there is strong interaction. E.g. the justification of decisions taken dominates not only the valuation but even the perception. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 9 Behavioral Finance Faulty Perception, Evaluation, and Decision Erkenntnisdefizite (1) Heuristiken - mentale Modelle (2) Verzögerte Wahrnehmung (3) Selektive Wahrnehmung (4) Wahrnehmungsschwellen (5) Risiken überschätzt (6) Selbstüberschätzung - Overconfidence Bewertungsprobleme (1) Präferenzen und Vorurteile (2) Reaktionsschwellen (3) Widersprüche bei der Risikobewertung (4) Konformismus, Herdentrieb, Ansteckung Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de Inkonsequenz bei der Entscheidung (1) Entscheidungsheuristiken (2) Bewahrung des status quo (3) Splittingeffekte (4) Buchhaltungs-Alchemie (5) Framing (6) Aversion to Regret (7) Dispositionseffekt (8) Mehrheitsentscheidungen The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 10 5 Behavioral finance - the idea Behavioral finance is based on the behavioral psychology of B. F. Skinner (1938). According to Skinner it is not possible to know the reasons for human (mis)behavior but luckily also not necessary. Each and every behavior has been learned and thus can be unlearned (conditioning). Behavioral finance: apparently irrational reactions of investors to certain stimuli - no questions as to causes Neuroscience tries to peep into the black box. Stimulus Reiz Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany black box Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de Response Reaktion The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 11 Behavioral Finance - based on miracles? Neuroscience tries to peep into the black box. Stimulus black box Response Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 12 6 MFT - Behavioral Finance - Neuroscience MFT postulates efficient markets. All information is processed instantaneously and rationally and reflected in current prices. Behavioral finance proves, with often very entertaining examples, that perception, valuation, and decision making of investors can not always be explained rationally. Subjective emotions often dominate. Neuroscience asks for the causes and shows that the emotions are indispensable. There is no rational behavior without emotions! First principles of emotion management are under construction. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 13 The Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Market Efficiency From an Evolutionary Prespective (Andrew W. Lo) The Efficient Markets Hypothesis postulates that market prices incorporate all information rationally and instantaneously. However, the emerging discipline of behavioral economics and finance has challenged this hypothesis, arguing that markets are not rational, but are driven by fear and greed instead. Recent research in the cognitive neurosciences suggests that these two perspectives are opposite sides of the same coin. A new framework reconciles market efficiency with behavioral alternatives by applying the principles of evolution---competition, adaptation, and natural selection---to financial interactions. Much of what behavioralists cite as counterexamples to economic rationality is consistent with an evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via simple heuristics. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 14 7 Neuroeconomics – Mind Games ALTHOUGH Plato compared the human soul to a chariot pulled by the two horses of reason and emotion, modern economics has mostly been a one-horse show. It has been obsessed with reason. In decisions from how much to produce to whether to save and invest, humans have been assumed to be coolly rational calculators of their own self-interest. Over the past few years, however, evidence from psychology has persuaded many economists that reason does not always have its way. Now, judging from a series of presentations at the American Economic Association meetings in Philadelphia, a burgeoning new field dubbed "neuroeconomics" seems poised to provide fresh insights on how the two horses together produce economic behaviour. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 15 Neuroeconomics – Paul Zak Yet another new term in neuro-, suggesting that the prefix is rapidly becoming a successor to e-, cyber- and other fashionable affixes of the last decade. A proponent of this new field is Paul Zak, Claremont University. He said: “Most economists theorize about how human beings behave instead of going out to observe. In Neuroeconomics, our goal is to observe and measure what’s happening in the brain when people are making decisions”. His team uses MRI and blood sampling to observe the way a person’s brain works, for example during a game of trust. There may be biochemical underpinnings to our willingness to be cooperative and generous in economic negotiations, associated with a hormone called oxytocin. Neuroeconomics aims to understand human social interactions through every level from synapse to society. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 16 8 Neuroeconomics – Richard Peterson NEUROECONOMICS THEORY Neuroeconomics is a new academic discipline bridging the theoretical divide between neuroscientific research regarding human choice behavior and economic theory. Neuroeconomics is the domain of economists, neuroscientists, psychologists, and physicians who are attempting to understand the neural basis of judgment and decision making, social behavior, and market economies. Experimental paradigms encompassed within this field include game theoretical constructs, mathematical modeling of neural learning and valuation, analysis of interactions among motivation, emotion, and behavior, trust and attachment, and addiction. Experimental methodologies include neuroimaging, genetic profiling, psychopharmacological (and diet) manipulations, psychophysiology (EMG, ERP, and EEG), and single neuron recording, among others. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 17 Neuroeconomics - Boring on Hayek "Half the time I read [Hayek's The Sensory Order] with amazement at the extent of his reading and comprehension . . he is right . . most of the time." " . . I feel sure that no one has done this particular kind of job [i.e. a physicalistic system of psychology, mind, and consciousness] nearly so well." "I do not for a moment believe it is the last word on this matter [i.e. a physicalistic system of psychology, mind and consciousness], but it is the best word I have ever heard spoken from this platform." (Edwin Boring, "Elementist Going Up", The Scientific Monthly, March, 1953, p. 183) Edwin Boring, Psychology, Harvard, is internationally known for his famous survey of psychology Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 18 9 Neuroeconomics - Edelman on Hayek "I must say that I have been deeply gratified by reading a book [Hayek's The Sensory Order] of which I had not been aware when I wrote my little essay on group selection theory . . I was deeply impressed . . I recommend this book to your attention, as an exercise in profound thinking by a man who simply considers knowledge for its own sake.” "[Hayek] made the quite fruitful suggestion, that whatever kind of encounter the sensory system has with the world, a corresponding event between a particular cell in the brain and some other cell carrying the information from the outside word must result in reinforcement of the connection between those cells. These day, this is known as a Hebbian synapse, but von Hayek quite independently came upon the idea. " Gerald Edelman, Nobel Prize winner in Physiology or Medicine, and Chairman of the Dept. of Neurobiology at the Scripps Research Institute Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 19 Neuroeconomics - Fuster on Hayek "The first proponent of cortical memory networks on a major scale was neither a neuroscientist nor a computer scientist but .. a Viennese economist: Friedrich von Hayek (1899-1992). A man of exceptionally broad knowledge and profound insight into the operation of complex systems, Hayek applied such insight with remarkable success to economics (Nobel Prize, 1974), sociology, political science, jurisprudence, evolutionary theory, psychology, and brain science." ( p. 87) "It is truly amazing that, with much less neuroscientific knowledge available, Hayek's model comes closer, in some respects, to being neurophysiologically verifiable than those models developed 50 to 60 years after his." (p. 89) Joaquin Fuster, UCLA School of Medicine, is a leading authority on the prefrontal cortex and the neuronal basis of memory. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 20 10 Freud‘s „Id“, the third humiliation of the human race Man had the perception that everything revolves around her. Copernicus proved: Not the sun revolves around us be we revolve around the sun. Abruptly we were dislodged from the center of the universe to the periphery. As the deputy of God we set out to govern the world until Charles Darwin discovered that we are not that special. Just an update of the ape, product of desultory evolution, like all other creatures. But one distinction remained for humans: reason, rationality. Then Freud revealed that reason is just the flimsy and fragile surface. Below blazes the chaos of instincts, compulsions, and emotions. For Freud this presented the third humiliation of mankind. Man is not even in command of his own head. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 21 Strizz, FAZ 23. Januar 2004 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 22 11 Freud‘s „Id“, the third humiliation of the human race - again accepted reluctantly if at all Copernicus: The Flat Earth Society still objects: “While the Society is not a "crackpot" group, it is opposed to the fashionable, politically correct Spherical Earth theory, which is expounded every day by so-called "scientists", the media and political leaders. The Society asserts that the Earth is flat and has five sides ...” ( www.flat-earth.org/society/about.html) 361-year abyss between Galileo's indictment for heresy 1632 and the church’s acquittal of him in 1993 Darwin: 137-year gap between Darwin's Origin of Species 1859 and acceptance of evolution by pope John Paul II 1996 In November of 2003 the Texas State Board of Education approved a list of biology textbooks that scientists believe do justice to Darwin‘s theory. 29 Jan. 2004, “evolution” removed from Georgia schoolbooks Freud: Discussion in FAZ 2003/2004 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 23 Fundamentalism A fundamentalist is someone who voluntarily decides that he will no longer change his mind in any significant way. “Howard Gardner, The Art and Science of Changing Our Own and Other Peoples Mind, Harvard Business School Press 2004 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 24 12 Doonesbury, 1. November 2004 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 25 Fundamentalism: Intelligence and Education no Help In theory education is supposed to help us think independently. But that's not how it works in the real world. Highly educated people may call themselves independents, but when it comes to voting they tend to pick a partisan side and stick with it. Collegeeducated voters are more likely than high-school-educated voters to vote for candidates from the same party again and again. That's because college-educated voters are more ideological. A college-educated Democrat is likely to be more liberal than a high-school-educated Democrat, and a college-educated Republican is likely to be more conservative than a high-schooleducated Republican. The more you crack the books, the more likely it is you'll shoot off to the right or the left. Once you've joined a side, the information age makes it easier for you to surround yourself with people like yourself. If there is one thing we have learned, it's that we are really into self-validation. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 26 13 Caught Between Church and State Shortly after the 1925 Scopes "monkey trial," the historian F. L. Allen concluded that fundamentalism had been permanently discredited by the prosecution of John T. Scopes, who had taught Darwin's theory of evolution. This was a serious historical misjudgment, as most recently demonstrated by the renewed determination of anti-evolution crusaders to force public school science classes to give equal time to religiously based speculation about the origins of life. Texas, then as now one of the largest textbook purchasers, led the drive to extirpate evolution. Censorship was soon institutionalized in a state commission that scrutinized all potential textbooks. The caution inspired by such pressure extended beyond the Bible Belt and persisted for decades. Perhaps the most insidious effect of the campaign against evolution has been avoidance of the subject by teachers who want to forestall trouble with fundamentalist parents. Recent surveys of high school biology teachers have found that avoidance of evolution is common among instructors throughout the nation. The singular achievement of the fundamentalist minority has been to render evolution controversial enough to silence many teachers who know better. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 27 When Sentiment and Fear Trump Reason and Reality The success of the scientific method, which changed the world beyond belief in the four centuries since Galileo, made the power and efficacy of that method evident. The Taliban government in Afghanistan destroyed the world's largest standing statues of Buddha, created almost 2,000 years ago. They claimed that Islamic law prohibited idolatrous images of human faces that might be used for worship. Those images come to mind with recent incidents in the United States. The "realitybased community," as one White House insider so poetically referred to, is losing the fight for hearts and minds to a well-orchestrated marketing program that plays on sentiment and fear. The intrusion of religious dogma into the highest levels of government is stunning. Science and religion are separate entities: science is a predictive discipline based on empirically falsifiable facts; religion is a hopeful discipline based on inner faith. Theologians as ancient as St. Augustine and Moses Maimonides recognized that science, not religion, was the method to try to understand the physical world. Yet it is precisely this ancient wisdom that is now under attack. Foes of evolution do not operate with the direct and brutal actions of the Taliban. They have marketing skills. The fundamentalist attack is on the basic premise that physical phenomena have physical causes that can be revealed by the scientific method. Most under attack is our remarkable ability to understand nature. In places like Afghanistan the enemies of truth are the enemies of freedom and democracy. If the scientific method is out of the mainstream in our country it is time to take a stronger stand against the effort to undermine empirical reality in favor of dogma. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 28 14 In Kansas, Darwinism Goes on Trial Once More Six years after Kansas ignited a national debate over the teaching of evolution, the state is poised to push through new science standards this summer requiring that Darwin's theory be challenged in the classroom. A parade of Ph.D.'s testified Thursday about the flaws they saw in mainstream science's explanation of the origins of life. It was one part biology lesson, one part political theater, and stage for the movement known as intelligent design, which posits that life's complexity cannot be explained without a supernatural creator. If the board adopts the new standards, Kansas would join Ohio, which took a similar step in 2002, in mandating students be taught that there is controversy over evolution. Legislators in Alabama and Georgia have introduced bills to allow teachers to challenge Darwin in class, and the battle over evolution is simmering on the local level in 20 states. The proposed changes to the state's science standards perhaps most significant shift would be in the very definition of science - instead of "seeking natural explanations for what we observe around us," the new standards would describe it as a "continuing investigation that uses observation, hypothesis testing, measurement, experimentation, logical argument and theory building to lead to more adequate explanations of natural phenomena." The experts testifying avoided mention of a divine creator, instead painting their position as simply one of open-mindedness, arguing that Darwinism had become a dangerous dogma. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 29 Intelligent design rears its head Intelligent design derives from an early-19th-century explanation of the natural world given by William Paley’s watchmaker analogy. If you found a watch in a field, you would infer that so fine and intricate a mechanism could not have been produced by unplanned, unguided natural forces. Proponents of intelligent design are renewing Paley's argument with molecular biology, claiming that living things are full of examples at the molecular level that you could not get from “successive, slight modifications”. Hence the molecular machines inside living beings are evidence of an intelligent designer—God. Intelligent design is not science because its claims cannot be tested by experiment and propose no new hypotheses of their own. But if intelligent design has few friends among scientists, it has won a significant following among the general public. Evolution seems to stick in the craw of anyone with strong beliefs, not just those who are religious. Stalin's Soviet Union rejected evolution. The Nation of Islam, an American Muslim group, also rejects it. Religious conservatives have a special reason for disliking natural selection. If God has a plan for the world then it is much easier to imagine evolution occurring under divine guidance than as a result of random mutations. Intelligent design has proved tempting to conservative Christians everywhere. The Catholic Church has long turned its back on a literal reading of the Book of Genesis. It does not seem to be doing the same with intelligent design. With its claims of scientific respectability intelligent design promises to reconcile anti-evolutionism with science. Strict creationism has been long discredited. Intelligent design is a different matter. Its proponents accept that the earth is billions of years old, that gene mutation and natural selection occur. They concede that scientific method, not biblical authority, is the arbiter of truth. Religious Americans are jumping at the chance to teach an alternative that claims to be science. The argument over intelligent design is likely to damage science teaching. This not because bad science standards will necessarily be adopted but because of the unwillingness of state Boards of Education to offend any sort of pressure group. Instead, they avoid controversial topics. In 2000 only ten states taught evolution fully, in 13 the treatment was considered useless or absent. These failings shame American teaching, and the manufactured controversy over intelligent design will do nothing to make them better. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 30 15 Evolution und Vernunft "Im Licht der Vernunft", schrieb Kardinal Christoph Schönborn in der "New York Times", könne man "leicht und klar Ziel und Plan in der natürlichen Welt, einschließlich der Welt des Lebendigen, erkennen". Wissenschaftliche Theorien, die versuchten, den Plan in der Natur als das Ergebnis von Zufall und Notwendigkeit wegzuerklären, seien nicht "eine Abdankung der menschlichen Vernunft". Längst hat aber die Evolutionstheorie zum Beispiel das Phänomen der evolutionären Konvergenz aufgenommen. Dabei geht es um die Tatsache, daß die Evolution aus sehr verschiedenen Richtungen oftmals die gleiche biologische Lösung ansteuert. Jedenfalls ist Evolution kein Komplott desillusionierter Materialisten. Umgekehrt wird ein Schuh daraus: Die kreationistische Sicht der Evolution operiert mit einer übernatürlichen Instanz, die eher einem Ingenieurbüro gleicht als dem Schöpfergott: Kreationismus ist Evolution für Kontrollfanatiker. Offenbar lassen sich die Pläne eines Offenbarungsgottes nicht so leicht nach- und hochrechnen, wie es die Kreationisten gerne hätten. Dem Anspruch auf Vernunft entspricht die kreationistische Forderung, das "argument from design" nicht etwa als religiöse These, sondern als wissenschaftlichen Befund zu vertreten. In den Schulen möge man gefälligst nicht nur die Evolutionstheorie lehren, so heißt es, sondern die Kontroverse um sie. Aber Evolution ist eine Tatsache. Um sie gibt es keine wissenschaftliche Kontroverse. Nirgendwo streiten Wissenschaftler um das Pro oder Kontra des Gedankens einer Entwicklung. Die wissenschaftliche Kontroverse, die in den Schulen abgebildet werden soll, ist insoweit nur behauptet. Die katholische Kirche hat längst klargestellt, daß sie nach ihrem Galilei-Syndrom nicht auch noch ein Darwin-Syndrom mit sich herumzuschleppen gedenkt. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 31 Renaissance of the science of emotion Only now Freud’s views are attested by Neuroscience. As keynote speaker drawing the „Decade of the Brain 1990-2000“ to a close, Antonio R. Damasio identified three possible reason for the long black hole of almost a century between Freud and the new blossoming of the Science of Emotion: Sexual fantasies were more attractive to the researchers than analysis of electrochemical processes in the brain. There is “a long philosophical tradition of not trusting emotions, regarding them as unruly phenomena that can wreck havoc on decision-making.” Neuroscience did not have the necessary instruments. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 32 16 Neuroscience used to neglect emotions With the traditional tools of neuroscience insights on emotion were hard to obtain. Destruction of brain areas in animal experiment: detect changes in the animal’s ability to perceive, learn, control movements. The emotions of animals are difficult to define and to detect. Non-invasive experiments with brain damaged humans: ethical objections and only very few cases (the emotion nuclei are well protected in the center of the brain), difficulties in defining and measuring emotions. Rediscovery of the Science of Emotion owed to new chemistry (psychotropic drugs) and new physics (new technical equipment). Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 33 Fähigkeiten nach Abschneiden der oberen Hirnteile vorhanden: Fähigkeit G rob-G leichgew icht Verdauung Extensions-,W isch-Refl. W egziehen beiReiz Prim itiv-Lernen beiReiz Standstarre,Schlaf Beißen,Schw anzschlag G eschm ack,M im ik Augenm otorik,Sakkaden Augenausricht.aufReiz Kauen,schlucken Lernen kurzzeitig Essen ablehnen Augenfolgebew egung Zuw endung/Abw endung Lernen schneller Affekte,Em otionen Bew egungen flüssig Tem p.-Regelung Riechen Lernen:essbar,ruhig Selbstversorgung N est,N achw uchs W illkürlich zielbew usst M ustererkennung Bew usstsein,Codes Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Rückenm ark Rautenhirn + + + + + - + + + + + + + + - Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de M ittelhirn Cham eläon + + + + + + + + + + + + + - Zw ischenhirn Althirn + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 34 17 New tools for neuroscience After electroenzephalogram (EEG) and computer-tomographe (CT) new imaging techniques: positron-emission-tomographe (PET), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and especially functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The scans can not only show which areas of the brain receive fresh, oxygenated blood at any given time, but also the electrical activity when individual neurons fire, chemically discharging e.g. dopamine. Current research centers on the strength of neural activities associated with specific perceptions, thoughts, emotions, and activities, the exact areas of the brain where these activities take place. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 35 In the last decades we have learned more about the brain than in all of the history of mankind before. Christoph Koch (CalTec), FAZ, February 20, 2004 If the human mind was simple enough to understand, we'd be too simple to understand it. Emerson Pugh Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 36 18 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 37 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 38 19 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 39 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 40 20 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 41 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 42 21 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 43 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 44 22 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 45 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 46 23 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 47 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 48 24 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 49 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 50 25 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 51 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 52 26 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 53 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 54 27 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 55 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 56 28 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 57 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 58 29 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 59 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 60 30 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 61 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 62 31 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 63 fMRI Reading Enjoying Orientation With functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) Researchers can observe the working brain. Depending on the individual tasks specific patterns show up. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 64 32 The Doctor Can See You Now GE imagination at work Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 65 Lufthansa Magazin, Sommer 2003 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 66 33 Inside the brain of a human emotion machine Six emotions: Agrravation / Anger Surprise Disgust Sadness / Grief Axiety / Fear Joy / Happiness in different regions of the brain Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 67 Abgeleitete Gefühle Nach Goleman Dankbarkeit und Verpflichtung Robert B Cialdini, Influence, Science and Practice, 4. Aufl. Needham, Ma. 2001 Gier, Neid und Geiz, die Gefühle der Investoren Wollust, schlechtes Gewissen und Reue Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 68 34 The anatomy of anxiety Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 69 Erläuterung des Funktionsdiagramms 1. Hören und Sehen: Bilder und Geräusche werden zunächst vom Thalamus verarbeitet. Dort werden sie gefiltert und zu den Mandelkernen oder dem entsprechenden Bereich der Hirnrinde weitergeleitet. 2. Riechen und Fühlen: Gerüche und taktile Reize gehen am Thalamus vorbei auch direkt zum Amygdalum. Deshalb rufen Gerüche oft stärkere Erinnerungen und Gefühle hervor als Geräusche. 3. Thalamus: Zentrale für Bilder und Geräusche, differenziert Bilder nach Größe, Form und Farbe, Geräusche nach Lautstärke und Dissonanz und sendet sie an den entsprechenden Bereich der Hirnrinde. 4. Cortex, Hirnrinde: Erfasst die Bedeutung von Bildern und Geräuschen und macht sie damit bewusst. Das Stirnhirn, spielt eine wichtige Rolle beim Abschalten von Ängsten, wenn die Gefahr vorbei ist. 5. Mandelkern, Amygdalum: Löst die Angstreflexe aus. Information, die durch das Amygdalum geht bekommt eine emotionale Bedeutung. Die Stria terminalis verbindet den Mandelkern mit dem Hippokampus. 6. Bed nucleus of the stria terminalis, BNST: Anders als die unmittelbaren Angstreflexe des Amygdalum sind die BNST-Reaktionen andauernde Furchtgefühle. 7. Locus coeruleus: Einer der Hirnnervenkerne, Produzent von Noradrenalin, das über den Hypothalamus auf das vegetative Nervensystem wirkt. Bekommt Signale vom Amygdalum und veranlasst die klassischen Angstreflexe: Adrenalinausschüttung, Herzrasen, hoher Blutdruck, Transpiration, Pupillenerweiterung. 8. Hippokampus: Gedächtniszentrale, organisiert im Neocortex Abspeicherung neuer Information von den Sinnesorganen mit den Emotionen, die bei der Passage durch das Amygdalum angehängt wurden. 9. Der Hypothalamus: Die Regelzentrale für alle vegetativen nervösen Vorgänge, steht mit der Hypophyse, der Zentrale für die hormonelle Steuerung, in sehr engen Wechselbeziehungen (Zwischenhirnhypophysensystem), das präoptische Areal des Hypothalamus bei Männern doppelt so groß wie bei Frauen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 70 35 Brain http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/humanbody/body/factfiles/brain/brain.shtml System: Nervous Location: Inside your skull Physical description: Pale grey, the size of a small cauliflower and the texture of pate Function: To control your body and house your mind Body and mind Information, in the form of nerve impulses, travels to and from your brain along your spinal cord. This allows your brain to monitor and regulate unconscious body processes, such as digestion and breathing and to coordinate most voluntary movements of your body. It is also the site of your consciousness, allowing you to think, learn and create. Your brain is made of many parts, each of which has a specific function. It can be divided into four areas: the cerebrum, the diencephalons, the brain stem and the cerebellum. Cerebrum The cerebrum is the largest part of your brain. It sits on top of the rest of your brain, rather like a mushroom cap covering its stalk. It has a heavily folded grey surface, the pattern of which is different from one person to the next. Some of the grooves in its surface mark out different functional regions. The front section of your cerebrum, the frontal lobe, is involved in speech, thought, emotion, and skilled movements. Behind this is the parietal lobe which perceives and interprets sensations like touch, temperature and pain. Behind this, at the centre back of your cerebrum, is a region called the occipital lobe which detects and interprets visual images. Either side of the cerebrum are the temporal lobes which are involved in hearing and storing memory. The cerebrum is split down the middle into two halves called hemispheres that communicate with each other. Cerebellum Your cerebellum is the second largest part of your brain. It sits underneath the back of your cerebrum and is shown in brown in the diagram above. It is involved in coordinating your muscles to allow precise movements and control of balance and posture. Diencephalons Your diencephalons sits beneath the middle of your cerebrum and on top of your brain stem. It contains two important structures called the thalamus and the hypothalamus. Your thalamus acts as a relay station for incoming sensory nerve impulses, sending them on to appropriate regions of your brain for processing. It is responsible for letting your brain know what's happening outside of your body. Your hypothalamus plays a vital role in keeping conditions inside your body constant. It does this by regulating your body temperature, thirst and hunger, amongst other things. And by controlling the release of hormones from the nearby pituitary gland. Brain stem Your brain stem is responsible for regulating many life support mechanisms, such as your heart rate, blood pressure, digestion and breathing. It also regulates when you sleep and wake. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 71 Forecasting is fun: the nucleus accumbens In the hemline of the bridge connecting the two brain sides Part of the limbic system, that is in charge of emotions: fury, fear, lust, sexual arousal and aggression (sex and crime) The brain nucleus for hope, euphoria but also addiction Activated in situations that involve reward and punishment Active with calculation of probabilities Central in search for analogies, especially left nucleus accumbens lodges patterns even when we positively know that there aren’t any. Representation of samples and gambler‘s fallacy, the feeling: “now it is the turn for red“ Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 72 36 The nucleus accumbens of the basal forebrain The nucleus accumbens contains neurons that are part of the basal ganglia. Thus, this structure may play a role in the regulation of movement, including the control of complex motor activity and the cognitive aspects of motor control. In addition, this structure has been found to possibly be the area that "becomes activated in situations that involve reward and punishment." Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 73 Addicted to forecasting Neuroscience tracks neural activity. Where are forecasts generated, where are they processed? Every action is based on forecasts, sometimes explicitly, mostly just implicitly. All forecasts are an extrapolation of analogies (trends, patterns, similarities, causations). That is why our brain compulsively looks for analogies, causation in random events, order in chaos, it forecasts. We always find analogies to base forecasts on, even if we positively know there aren’t any. ... and proofs (heuristics of availability, selective perception, cognitive dissonance, technical analysis, data mining). Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 74 37 We always find patterns, analogies Isn‘t that impressive? Yes, especially the 4th quarter Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 75 We always find patterns, analogies Beautiful mood isn‘t ? Very stable support lines! Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 76 38 Learning from experience? Chance or causality? Rain forest Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Casino Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 77 Learning from experience: a theory of superstition Superstitions sees causation that don‘t exist Allegedly the physicist Niels Bohr had a horse shoe over the door to his office, as a lucky charm for his research. Asked if he really believed in that he is said to have relied: „Of course not, but I heard that it works even if you don‘t believe in it.“ I am not superstitious but that does not oblige me to pass under a ladder. It may not help but it also doesn't hurt. Don‘t take chances! Decision making often takes the form of pattern matching rather than of explicit weighing of costs and benefits. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 78 39 Happiness is pleasant anticipation and dopamine is the neurotransmitter of happiness Neurotransmitter dopamine, most important amplifier in learning activities Good vibrations when forecasting „To the alliance of curiosity and desire sponsored by dopamine belongs creativity as well.“ Stefan Klein „The Brain Runs on Fun.“ American saying Dopamine causes happiness by pleasant anticipation. When we enjoy, relish, savor though, parts of the brain are activated that are in charge of conscious perception. And here the neurotransmitter is not dopamine but opioides, drugs produced by the brain that resemble opium. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 79 The expectation of achieving a desired outcome is always full of relish. Aristotle Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 80 40 Dopamin und Opioide „Bei Vorfreude läuft ein Zentrum im Vorderhirn zu großer Tätigkeit auf - der Nucleus accumbens. ...Er wird vom Lustmolekül Dopamin gesteuert und trägt wesentlich dazu bei, dass wir uns gute Erfahrungen merken. Wenn wir hingegen genießen, regen sich Teile des Großhirns, die für die bewusste Wahrnehmung zuständig sind. Und nicht Dopamin dient hier als Bote, sondern die Opioide, körpereigene Substanzen, die dem Opium ähneln. ... ... An der Entstehung aller Genüsse sind die Opioide beteiligt. Im Kern sind also alle Genüsse gleich.“ Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 81 Dopamine discharge at the time of the forecast Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 82 41 Timeline of dopamine discharge, pleasant anticipation Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 83 Rewards that we are sure to get, then provide but little pleasure. Ovid Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 84 42 Dopamine and learning If we are immediately rewarded for positive forecasts, no matter what the future brings, it is difficult to learn from mistakes. On the other hand it is just the dopamine discharge cause be the present expectation of a future reward that sweetens the waiting time. If you can anticipate and dream of future rewards you are prepared to make the effort, to study and toil. That holds true for mental efforts as well as physical fitness Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 85 Dopamin und Sucht Handlungen, die eine Dopaminauschüttung auslösen, will man sobald und so oft wie möglich wiederholen. Wer diesen Drang nicht beherrschen kann (Kontrollverlust), ist süchtig. Wenn die durch die Handlung bewirkte Dopaminauschüttung schwächer ist, weil die Rezeptoren nicht hinreichend ausgebildet sind, oder schwächer wird, weil die Wirkung ja schon erwartet wurde, folgt die Erhöhung der Dosis. Bis hin zum „Goldenen Schuss“ Jede Art von Sucht manipuliert das Belohnungssystem in ihrer eigenen Form, aber immer ist der Nukleus Accumbens aktiv. Das ist die Basis für einige viel versprechende Ansätze Medikamente zu entwickeln mit denen die Andockstellen der Suchtdrogen besetzt werden. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 86 43 Dopamine and exercise Exercise, sport cause discharge of dopamine Exercise, sport improve capacity for remembering Exercise, sport increase blood circulation also in the brain (cerebral perfusion) Discharge of growth factors, i.e. BNF Improved resistance, i.e. apoplectic stroke Faster regeneration Protection against dementia Protection against depression Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 87 Dopaminmangel Ursache für Parkinson-Krankheit Dopaminbildende Nervenzellen gehen zugrunde Medikamentöser Ausgleich des Dopaminmangels kann die motorischen Beeinträchtigungen über längere Zeit mindern Unter Einfluss von Dopamin entstehen im Hippocampus aus Stammzellen neue Nervenzellen Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 88 44 Centers of dopamine discharge Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 89 No risk - no fun / Forecasting is fun Dopamin discharge higher when more difficult to forecast. People enjoy surprises. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 90 45 Juice or water - model of dopamine discharge Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 91 Changes in predictability of sequential stimuli modulate brain response in the ventral striatum Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 92 46 Juice or water - brain activity Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 93 Hedonic adaptation Rewards that we are sure to get, then provide but little pleasure. Ovid The sense of well-being returns to the mean Jackpot versus paraplegia Pay rise Investment performance Exceptions: Chronic pain, loud noise It is the surprising punch line that make the joke funny. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 94 47 We love excitement Some brokers know, how to catch a bird. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 95 Kreativität durch Pruning (Auslichten, Beschneiden) „Dem Bund aus Neugier und Begehren, den Dopamin im Gehirn stiftet, gehört auch die Kreativität an.“ Stefan Klein Ein völlig unkreativer Mensch erlitt mit 51 einen Gehirnschlag, verursacht durch zwei kleine Gerinnsel auf beiden Seiten der Gehirns. Seiher schreibt er Gedichte, schafft Skulpturen, malt of 10 oder mehr Stunden am Tag. Lythgoe und seine Kollegen erklären dieses Phänomen mit Disinhibition. In Gehirn sind die Neuronen der hunderttausende von Synapsen miteinander vernetzt. Dies können entweder stimulierend oder inhibierend auf die Nervenzelle wirken, an die sie Informationen weiterleiten. In diesem Fall denken die Wissenschaftler, dass gerade genug inhibierende Verbindungen im Gehirn beschädigt worden sind, so dass sich die zuvor unterdrückte Kreativität entfalten konnte. Mark Lythgoe nach Cornelia Thomas, Das Gehirn bricht sich unaufhaltsam Bahn, FAZ, 6. Juli 2004, S. 33 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 96 48 Wenn die Neuronen gefeuert haben - eine weitere Fundierung der Prospect Theory W ert Unsymmetrische Risikopräferenz (Kahneman und Tversky 1979) Durch geeignete Sichtweise können Entscheidungen V erlust manipuliert werden Thalers vier Regeln zur Erhöhung der Attraktivität G ew inn 1. Betrachte Gewinne getrennt. 2. Füge Verluste zusammen. 3. Betrachte großen Verlust und kleinen Gewinn isoliert. 4. Füge großen Gewinn mit kleinen Verlust zusammen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 97 High on dopamine, electrified investors Our overconfidence is immune to learning. We get our reward now, even if forecasts later turn out to be wrong. Heuristics of availability, experiences that are not representative but dominate memory, especially when positive emotions had been experienced. High stakes trigger dopamine discharge (lottery, penny stocks, IPOs) however small the chances of winning. When expected rewards don’t materialize, dopamine level and mood go south, a possible reason for the sometimes extreme overreaction when earnings forecasts are just barely missed. Does this mean that the investor should suppress his emotions? No: but recognize and manage! Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 98 49 The power of emotions - humiliation? Since Freud we know that conscious awareness is only the tip of the iceberg of our intellect, below and much bigger is the subconscious mind. Freud felt deeply humiliated by this domination of the “Id”. Today we recognize our “Id” as an indispensable assistant, who perceives things that we fail to see and lets us act, without the need for reflection and attention. Perception: Skin reaction to not recognized acquaintances (Damasio), the 24th picture, furious face Action: driving, centipede, golf But even if we act consciously, reflected, and rational, emotions are of critical importance. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 99 Mother‘s little helpers Bewusstsein ist seit Freud nur die Spitze des Eisberges unseres Geistes, darunter und sehr viel größer liegt das Unbewusste. angeborene, instinkthafte Reaktionen Hautreaktion auf nicht erkannte Bekannte (Damasio), Spinnen, wütendes Gesicht kulturell erworbene Reaktionen Dankbarkeit, Mitgefühl Erlernte Reaktionen Radfahren, Autofahren, Golf, Ballgefühl 1 und 2 erkennen, kontrollieren 3 aktiv steuern But even if we act consciously, reflected, and rational, emotions are of critical importance, an indispensable helper. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 100 50 The error of René Decartes Descartes established the credo of rational, cartesian thinking: „Cogito ergo sum.“ or „Je pense donc je suis.“ His view was: only by thinking man becomes human, rational action must disregard emotion. Modern neuroscience begs to differ, and radically so. Antonio R. Damasio: without emotion there is no incentive for rational decision, it just does not happen! (Descartes‘ Error, New York 1994) „Long before the dawn of humanity, beings were beings.“ Emotions are the engine of thinking. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 101 The amygdala (corpus amygdalum) Part of the limbic system, processing scent information, center of instinctive reactions, fear and anger Instantaneous reactions of the whole body, connected to the adrenaline system, much faster than cortex With hippocampus welds emotions to memories a) Increasing gains activate left amygdala b) Increasing losses activate right amygdala Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 102 51 The prefrontal cortex Magazine of memories with attached emotions (know-feelcombinations, Damasio: „somatic marker“) In charge of planning of actions and of rational evaluation of possible outcomes Moderates the emotional input from the amygdala Input from amygdala to prefrontal lobe (via hippocampus) very much stronger than the other way round. That may explain the difficulties of psychoanalysis and why it is so hard to act against our emotions. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 103 Antonio Damasio’s Iowa gambling task Patients with damaged ventromedial prefrontal (VMF) cortex can not remember and therefore anticipate the emotion of winning and loosing. They develop no long-term winning strategies but gamble on short-term gains. Patients with damaged amygdala can not generate and therefore feel the emotion of winning and loosing. Without emotional input „rational“ probands just don’t care. The strength of emotions is measured by SCR (skin conductivity response), the stronger the emotion, the more humid the skin and the lower the electrical resistance as compared to normal in µS/sec. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 104 52 The Iowa Gambling Task Four stacks of cards to choose from A und B bad, possible gain of $ 130 - maximal loss $ 1,500 C und D better, maximal gain lower, much lower maximal loss Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 105 The Iowa Gambling Task: measured emotion before good decks (C,D) bad decks (A,B) µS/sec at card selection SCR (skin conductivity response) damaged amygdala resp. ventromedial prefrontal (VMF) cortex Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 106 53 The Iowa Gambling Task: measured emotion after good decks (C,D) bad decks (A,B) µS/sec after reward (gain)or punishment (loss) SCR (skin conductivity response) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 107 The Iowa Gambling Task: learning curve good decks (C,D) bad decks (A,B) normal (n=13) amygdala (n=5) learning curve of card selection1 to 100 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de VMF (n=5) The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 108 54 The Iowa Gambling Task, readings EKG Tachogram Atmung SCR (rechts) SCR (links) Zygomatic EMG Corrugator EMG Spiel Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 109 The somatic-marker-hypothesis Antonio Damasio: We make judgements not only by assessing probabilities and consequences, but also, „and primarily“, by evaluating their emotional attributes, the somatic marker. The „right“ decision is taken only when also felt to be „good“. There is no rational behavior without emotion. Without emotion the conscious mind is only a paper tiger, unable to stick to its chosen course. 4Ws: Why do We Want What? All our objectives are based on emotion. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 110 55 Aversion to Regret Facing the consequence of a decision can trigger emotions like satisfaction, relief, or regret, our assessment of what was gained as compared to what would have been gained by making a different decision. These emotions are mediated by a cognitive process known as counterfactual thinking. Normal subjects respond consistent with counterfactual thinking; they choose to minimize future regret. Patients with orbitofrontal cortical lesions, however, don’t regret or anticipate negative consequences of their choices. Regret is an emotion that accompanies negative outcomes to decisions for which we have been responsible. Minimizing anticipated regret means avoiding the possibility of a big negative value when, you compare what you got to what you could have had. Standard economic theory predicts that rational decision-makers will base their choice on the probability that a particular outcome will be favorable. However, many deviations from this prediction are observed, because humans are often anything but rational. Patients with orbitofrontal cortex lesions (OFC) can elaborate plans and options and even recognize the incongruence between how they should behave and how they actually behave, yet in real life their choices are inadequate in a manner suggesting a missing sense of responsibility for the consequences of their own decisions. This observation predicts that such patients should not feel regret and that their choices should not be weighted by possible future regrets. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 111 Behavior: Simian Economics Monkeys show the same “irrational” aversion to risks as humans When faced with an exchange whose outcome is predictable only on average, most people prefer to avoid the risk of making a loss than to take the chance of making a gain when the average expected outcome of the two actions would be the same. There has been a lot of discussion about whether it is the product of cultural experience or is a reflection of a deeper biological phenomenon. So Keith Chen and colleagues decided to investigate its evolutionary past, experimenting with monkeys. First they introduced their monkeys to the idea of a cash economy. They did this by giving them small metal discs while showing them food. The monkeys quickly learned that humans valued these inedible discs so much that they were willing to trade them for scrumptious pieces of apple, grapes and jelly. Once the price had been established, though, it was changed. The size of the apple portions was doubled, effectively halving the price of apple. The result was that apple consumption went up in exactly the way that price theory (as applied to humans) would predict. Then they tested their animals' risk aversion by offering them three different trading regimes in succession. What the responses have in common is a preference for avoiding apparent loss. That such behaviour occurs in two primates suggests a common evolutionary origin. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 112 56 „Id“ perceives faster than the conscious mind An interesting side outcome of the Iowa gambling task was that the normal subjects’ subconscious perception of the relative attractiveness of the decks was much faster. After 10 drawings they started to worry when choosing the “bad” decks A or B, skin resistance decreased. With 50 drawings players started to voice concerns, that A and B might be “somewhat risky”. After 80 drawings most where fully aware of the odds. The normal probands then only chose C or D. The brain damaged subjects were equally aware of the odds but did not go for a winning strategy. They did not care. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 113 Memory of emotionally arousing material superior What did you do or experience yesterday, one week ago, one year ago, or in your childhood? If you try to answer this question, you will typically remember most easily those episodes of your life with the greatest emotional impact, i.e., particularly positive or particularly negative events. Experimental psychology has confirmed that memory for emotionally arousing material is generally superior to memory for emotionally neutral material, and neurobiological research indicates that this superiority critically depends on neuromodulatory processes within the amygdala, a small almond-shaped structure in the medial temporal lobe of the brain. My current research projects are dedicated to the role that sleep and different sleep stages play in emotional and nonemotional memory processes as well as neuromodulatory influences of glucocorticoids on these processes. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 114 57 John Locke - Erinnerung bei stärkeren Emotionen Die Aufmerksamkeit und die Wiederholung tragen viel dazu bei, gewisse Ideen im Gedächtnis zu fixieren. Der tiefste und dauerhafteste Eindruck wird aber naturgemäß zuerst durch Ideen hervorgerufen, die von Freude oder Schmerz begleitet sind. John Locke, Versuch über den menschlichen Verstand Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 115 Träges Hirn verwischt Erinnerungen Besonders wenn Details eine Rolle spielen, kann das Gedächtnis kaum zwischen real Erlebtem und fälschlich Hinzugefügtem unterschieden. Craig Stark und Yoko Okado machten sich auf die Suche nach den Gehirnprozessen, die zum Abspeichern von fehlerhaften Erinnerungen führen. Mit dem Kernspintomografen beobachteten sie die Gehirne von Testpersonen beim Betrachten von Fotoserien. Jeweils 50 Bilder zeigten, wie ein Mann einer Frau die Brieftasche stiehlt und dann flieht. Im zweiten Durchgang waren die Bilder aber in manchen Details verändert. Zwei Tage später wurden die Versuchspersonen nach ihren Erinnerungen befragt. Stark und Okado stellten fest, dass sie mit ihren Kernspin-Aufnahmen vorhersagen konnten, welche Probanden deutlich von den Störinformationen beeinflusst wurden. Bei allen Beteiligten war nicht nur die für Gedächtnisarbeit zuständige Hirnregion Hippocampus aktiv, sondern auch ein anderer Bereich: der präfrontale Kortex. Bei Versuchspersonen, deren Erinnerungen zahlreiche Fehlinformationen enthielten, war der präfrontale Kortex auffallend träge. Stark und Okado schließen daraus, dass die Hirnregion besonders wichtig ist, um den Kontext und die Quelle einer Erinnerung abzuspeichern. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 116 58 Therapie: correcting the somatic markers ex post Our decisions are based on probabilities and expected consequences and their emotional attributes. Memories, including the emotional attributes (somatic markers) are opened and saved like a word document. I.e. decrease level of anxiety often describe in relaxed setting (psychoanalysis) recall and practice to relax (behavioral psychology) recall and attach new emotion (NLP) CISD, Critical Incident Stress Debriefing, for the military What is the emotion attached to this memory - do I want to change that? Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 117 A Pill That Helps Ease Grip of Irrational Fears A tuberculosis drug with surprising effects on the brain has given psychiatrists hope that a new approach to phobias and other severe anxiety disorders may be in the offing. The drug, D-cycloserine, an antibiotic, does nothing to soothe panic or calm nerves. Instead, it increases learning and memory, and may help people overcome their fears faster in psychotherapy, which can be costly and take years. Researchers at Emory found that people who combined the drug with behavioral treatment to conquer their fear of heights improved drastically after only two sessions, instead of the usual eight. Elsewhere, researchers are studying its effects on social phobia, panic disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder. "Treating anxiety with Valium or antidepressants works on the symptoms, but doesn't really get rid of the fear except to cover it up in the moment," said Dr. Michael Davis, a psychiatrist at Emory. "Psychotherapy is really the best way to treat these disorders, and this makes it better and faster." For panic disorder, phobias and other severe anxiety disorders, psychiatrists often rely on a specific type of treatment called exposure therapy, in which patients gradually learn to feel comfortable in situations they dread. Studies have shown that a glutamate receptor in the amygdala, a part of the brain that governs emotion, plays a role in learning to adjust to threatening stimuli. Since D-cycloserine is known to act on these receptors, Dr. Davis decided to test whether it might accelerate the breaking of people's fearful associations, a process called extinction. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 118 59 Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Psychological counseling after catastrophes damage control by the responsible organization requested by insurance ..., to prove our concern Often less advantages than disadvantages Propensity fort self-healing underestimated Phobia-Spiral reinforced instead of attenuated more effective: CISD, Critical Incident Stress Debriefing Counseling creates its victims Heart attacks in Israel: PTSD- counseling 19%, repression 7% Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 119 Correcting the somatic markers ex ante Preparation abates or even avoids affright Clausewitz: Every soldier must mentally anticipate everything that may happen in war. Mental Training: Be Prepared Gulf war 1991: 3% PTSD earth quakes, floods: 5% lethal car accidents: 20% rape: >50% 11th September 2001: population of Manhattan 40% Relapse of heart attacks in Israel 19% with PTSD-Treatment, 7% with suppression Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 120 60 Verdrängen, die traumatische Amnesie Bei extremem Stress werden die Rezeptoren im Hippocampus mit Cortisol überschwemmt. Die traumatische Erfahrung wird nicht mehr zu einem einheitlichen Ganzen geordnet. Häufig ergibt sich ein Durcheinander von überdeutlichen Details und Erinnerungslücken. Wenn dieser Schutzmechanismus versagt, kann die Erinnerung aus der aktiven Erinnerung „verdrängt“ werden, doch auch das Unbewusste kann noch erhebliche Störungen auslösen. Therapie 1: Psychoanalyse, Verhaltenstherapie, PTSD etc. bauen die somatic markers, die extremen Emotionen, ab. Therapie 2: Auslösung einer Cortisolschwemme während der Erinnerung durch Chemie (Pille des Vergessens) oder extreme physikalische Reize. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 121 Traumata in der Literatur Psychologen sprechen angesichts nicht zu bewältigender Situationen von Trauma. Angst, Wut und Ausweglosigkeit steigern sich zu einem derartigen Albtraum, daß der betroffene Mensch nicht mehr fliehen kann, in Hilflosigkeit erstarrt, seinen Körper unbeteiligt als etwas Fremdes erlebt. Das Erleiden von Gewalt - von Vergewaltigung, Folter, Vernachlässigung, Krieg, Katastrophen, Unfällen - kann in einen Ausnahmezustand münden. Wissenschaftliche Fundierung findet Hannes Fricke in der modernen Traumaforschung, die er auf die Literatur. Im Unterschied zur Psychoanalyse befasst sich die Traumatologie mit einer hirnphysiologisch nachweisbaren anthropologischen Konstante. Traumatische Erlebnisse lassen sich also im historischen Rückblick auf die gleichen empirischen Gesetzmäßigkeiten wie heute zurückführen. Denn sie werden in sonst unzugänglichen Regionen des Gehirns abgespeichert, im "heißen" statt "kalten" Gedächtnis. Dabei zerfallen die Informationen in willentlich nicht mehr abrufbare Fragmente, ohne räumliche, zeitliche und kausale Ordnung. Sie suchen den betroffenen Menschen unvorbereitet und unvorhersehbar heim, ausgelöst durch bestimmte Reize (Trigger), die tief eingeschriebene Erinnerungen aktualisieren und so die traumatische Situation erneut heraufbeschwören (Flashback). Dieser Teufelskreis hat seit jeher bestanden und Spuren in der Literatur hinterlassen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 122 61 But Sweetie, you love lima beans If children's happiest food memories were leafy green rather than beefy, what difference in what people might eat. Now it is possible to change those memories - as an adult. Psychologists fooled college students into thinking that as children they had become sick when eating certain foods. The students answered questions about their early eating memories. Later, they were presented with a bogus food history profile that embedded a single falsehood - that they had gotten sick when eating pickles or hard-boiled eggs. This is called the false feedback technique, where you gather data from the subjects and use it to lend credibility to this false profile. About 40 percent confirmed later that they remembered getting sick or believed it to be true. The believers said that they would be much more likely to avoid eating pickles or hard-boiled eggs. People who were told that they loved asparagus as children were much more drawn to that slender delicacy. The experience of taste is as open to tampering as other memories. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 123 Vergessen - Talent, Kunst oder Wissenschaft Je mehr man erinnert, umso mehr kann man lernen. Die Kapazität unseres Gedächtnisses ist kein limitierender Faktor. Das gilt allerdings nur für das Langzeitgedächtnis, die Kapazität des Kurzzeitgedächtnisses wird dagegen durchaus belastet, wenn wir Unwichtiges nicht vergessen können. Experimente lassen vermuten, dass das schlechtere Erinnerungsvermögen von kleinen Kindern und alten Menschen mit der Unfähigkeit verbunden sein könnte, Unwichtiges zu vergessen. „Directed Forgetting“ wird gelernt und verlernt. Das Kurzzeitgedächtnis profitiert vom absichtlichen Vergessen. „Directed forgetting“ spielt aber auch beim Bewältigen traumatischer Erlebnisse eine wichtige Rolle. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 124 62 Fünf Gedächtnisstufen 1. "Bahnung". Schon in der 23. Schwangerschaftswoche kann sich ein werdendes Baby an Geräusche gewöhnen. 2. "Automatisierung", von Bewegungen/Fertigkeiten. Tretend, boxend übt das Ungeborene einfache Bewegungsmuster ein. Fachleute sprechen auch vom "prozeduralen Gedächtnis". 3. „Perzeptuelles Gedächtnis“, bildet sich nach der Geburt, wenn Stimme, Geruch der Mutter dem Säugling rasch vertraut werden. 4. Der Beginn des bewussten Welt- und Faktenwissens, entsteht am Ende des ersten Lebensjahres. Jetzt finden Kinder ein Spielzeug wieder, das die Erwachsenen versteckt haben. 5. Das "episodische" oder "autobiografische" Gedächtnis. Dieses ermöglicht es, Erlebnisse so detailliert und im Zusammenhang mit Zeit, Raum und emotionaler Stimmung festzuhalten, dass wir sie jederzeit nacherleben können. Kinder erreichen diese Gedächtnisstufe im Vorschulalter, also mit vier, fünf Jahren. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 125 Gedächtnisbildung im Schlaf Otto Loewi entdeckte 1924 das Acetylcholin. Der Hippokampus gilt als Zwischenlager für frisch Erlerntes. Von dort werden die noch ungefestigten Gedächtnisinhalte an die jeweils zuständigen Bereiche des Neokortex weitergegeben und dauerhaft verankert. Einer neueren These zufolge laufen wichtige Teile dieses Prozesses während des Tiefschlafs ab. Während dieser Schlafphase, die durch besonders langsame Hirnwellen, sogenannte Deltawellen, charakterisiert ist, werden neue Inhalte des deklarativen Gedächtnisses im Hippokampus reaktiviert und an den Neokortex weitergereicht. Versuche lieferten Hinweise darauf, daß dieser Prozess durch die im Tiefschlaf verringerte Konzentration an Acetylcholin leichter abläuft. Schlaf begünstigt das prozedurale Gedächtnis noch deutlich stärker als das deklarative Gedächtnis. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 126 63 Problemlösung im Schlaf Otto Loewi, chemische Übertragung von Nervenreizen, MedizinNobelpreis 1936. An einem Morgen im Jahr 1921 hatte er plötzlich die Idee für ein ausgeklügeltes Experiment. Die Erleuchtung war ihm über Nacht gekommen. F. A. Kekulé wurde 1865 beim Schlummern die Molekülgestalt des Benzols deutlich. Erinnerungen werden zunächst im Hippocampus gebildet und gespeichert (Kurzzeitgedächtnis). Die Ablage in der Hirnrinde (Langzeitgedächtnis) erfolgt im Schlaf. Born und Wagner zeigten, daß im Schlaf nicht nur eine Überführung vom Kurz- in das Langzeitgedächtnis stattfinden kann, sondern auch eine Anpassung des neu Erlernten an schon vorhandene Inhalte des Langzeitgedächtnisses. Demnach findet eine Umstrukturierung mentaler Inhalte statt, die neue Einsichten ermöglicht. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 127 Brain, organ that lets us think that we think (Ambrose Bierce, Devil‘s Dictionary) 60 million years development from ape to human brain Selective advantages: Avoiding predators Finding food and sex partners Development of simple rules for survival Only recently selective advantages of: Algorithms of exchange rate arbitrage Derivative products and collateralized mortgage obligations Economic-Value-Added, Two-Stage-Dividend-Discount-Model Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 128 64 Aesthetics is hard-wired in the brain Even babies have an innate sense of beauty, choosing to gaze longer at lovelier faces. Parents have the same bias. Still, the headline yesterday in Science Times was jolting: “Researchers made a startling assertion: parents take better care of pretty children.” Researchers at the University of Alberta observed that at the supermarket, less adorable tykes were more often allowed to engage in potentially dangerous activities like standing up in the shopping cart. Good-looking children got more attention from their parents. "When it came to buckling up, pretty and ugly children were treated in starkly different ways, with seat belt use increasing in direct proportion to attractiveness," the article said. "When a woman was in charge, 4 percent of the homeliest children were strapped in, compared with 13.3 percent of the most attractive children." With fathers, it was even worse, "with none of the least attractive children secured with seat belts, while 12.5 percent of the prettiest children were." Dr. Andrew Harrel, the research team's leader, put the findings in evolutionary terms: pretty children represent a premium genetic legacy, so get top care. "Like lots of animals," he said, "we tend to parcel out our resources on the basis of value.“ A beauty bias against children seems so startling because you grow up thinking parents are the only ones who will give you unconditional love, not measure it out in coffee spoons based on your genetic luck - which, after all, they're responsible for. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 129 Rechte und linke Hirnhälfte Normalerweise Bildverarbeitung in beiden Hirnhälften Nach chirurgischer Trennung kein Austausch mehr zwischen den Hirnhälften, links im Augenwinkel wird nur rechts empfangen (rationale) linke Hälfte macht bessere Prognosen, Sprache, Mathe (emotionale) rechte Hälfte sieht Muster, wo keine sind Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 130 65 Pollyanna-Typen Pollyanna-Typen denken immer positiv, assoziieren positiv auch bei beunruhigenden Wörtern (z.B. Hass … Liebe). fMRI zeigt aber, dass bei Projektion im linken Gesichtsfeld die rechte Hirnhälfte negativ erregt wird. (Nur) Diese Wörter werden verzögert an das Sprachzentrum in der linken Hirnhälfte weitergegeben, während gleichzeitig der für positive Gefühle zuständige linke Schläfenlappen sehr aktiv wird. Bei neutralen Wörtern gibt es keine Verzögerung. Pollyanna-Typen nehmen das Negative also unbewusst durchaus wahr, aber ihr Gehirn schützt sie vor den negativen Gefühlen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 131 Unterschiedliche Reaktion der Hirnhälften Linke Hirnhälfte ist aktiver, besonders bei riskanten Entscheidungen Rechte Hirnhälfte wird vom Risiko nicht beeindruckt Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 132 66 Gray Matter and the Sexes: Still a Gray Area Lawrence H. Summers suggested that one factor in women's lagging progress in science might be differences between the sexes. Has science found evidence of sex disparities in skills, or perhaps the drive to succeed, that could help account for the persistent paucity of women in science? Researchers say that yes, there are a host of discrepancies between men and women. A century ago, the French scientist Gustav Le Bon pointed to the smaller brains of women and said that explained their "fickleness, inconstancy, absence of thought and logic, and incapacity to reason". Overall size aside, some evidence suggests that female brains are relatively more endowed with gray matter while men's brains are packed with more white matter, the tissue between neurons. New brain imaging studies, suggest that men and women with equal I.Q. scores use different proportions of their gray and white matter when solving problems like those on intelligence tests. Men, they said, appear to devote 6.5 times as much of their gray matter to intelligence-related tasks as do women, while women rely far more heavily on white matter to pull them through a ponder. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 133 Gray Matter and the Sexes: Still a Gray Area John Tierney, Scrabbling to the top: Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh have shown that women have less appetite for competition than men do. Helen Fisher et al., Neural Mechanisms of Mate Choice: A Hypothesis: "Charles Darwin distinguished between two types of sexual selection, intrasexual selection, by which members of one sex evolve traits that enable them to compete directly with one another to win mating opportunities; and intersexual selection, by which individuals of one sex evolve traits that are preferred by members of the opposite sex.“ Males are rewarded with mating opportunities when they reach the top. Sometimes that is their only chance. They compete with everybody. Women are rather rewarded for being lovely. Working to get to the top May even make them less lovely. They compete with each other. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 134 67 This Is Your Brain on Motherhood A mother's brain, as commonly envisioned, is impaired by a full-scale assault on sanity and smarts. So strong is this last stereotype that when a satirical Web site posted a "study" saying that parents lose an average of 20 I.Q. points on the birth of their first child, MSNBC broadcast it as if it were true.The more visibly "encumbered" we are, the more bias we attract: When volunteer groups were shown images of a woman doing various types of work, but in some cases wearing a pillow to make her look pregnant, most judged the "pregnant" woman less competent. But what if just the opposite is true? What if parenting really isn't a zero-sum, children-take-all game? This is, in fact, what some leading brain scientists now believe. Becoming a parent, they say, can power up the mind with uniquely motivated learning. The human brain creates cells throughout life, cells more likely to survive if they're used. Emotional, challenging and novel experiences provide particularly helpful use of these new neurons, and what adjectives better describe raising a child? Aging makes us cling ever more fiercely to our mental ruts. The unique bond with our children can yank us out of them. Learning and memory skills can be improved by bearing and nurturing offspring. A team of neuroscientists found that mother lab rats, just like working mothers, excel at time-management and efficiency, racing around mazes to find rewards and get back to the pups in record time. Other research is showing how hormones elevated in parenting can help buffer mothers from anxiety and stress - a timely gift from a sometimes compassionate Mother Nature. Oxytocin, produced by mammals in labor and breast-feeding, has been linked to the ability to learn in lab animals. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 135 Cranial volume and intelligence Volume should matter. If evolution resulted in an ever increasing size of the brain and specifically the cortex, this must present a selective advantage. Thinking and planning instead of just following the instincts obviously improved the odds as to survival and reproduction. Therefore it was all the more galling that all attempts failed to prove a correlation between brain size and intelligence (and thus the superiority of a certain sex or race). This seems to change now but the results are quite surprising. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 136 68 Intelligence depends on brain size - but not cortex The latest research by Paul Zak: Size matters. IQ and brain size are correlated after all. But not all the brain, especially not the highly developed neocortex that distinguishes man from all other species. It is the volume of amygdala and hippocampus that determines intelligence. The volume of the cortex, although obviously a selective advantage, is not a sufficient or even necessary condition for high intelligence. Feeling emotions, being able to match them to memories, and to employ both for purposeful decisions - that makes the successful animal. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 137 ... aber Lehrbuchwissen ist die zentrale Bedeutung der Mandelkerne noch nicht A. Waldeyer, A. Mayert, Anatomie des Menschen, 15. Aufl. Berlin - New York 1986, S. 315: „Der Mandelkern. ... Seinem Feinbau nach ist er vom Basalganglion abzuleiten. Funktionell gehört er zum limbischen System. Außerdem hat er regulatorische vegetative Funktionen. Experimente mit Tieren zeigen jedoch, dass der Mandelkern entbehrlich ist.“ Kommentar: Denken und Fühlen sind wohl auch entbehrlich. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 138 69 Gegen anatomielose Seelenmedizin Emil Kraepelin (1856-1926), Direktor der Psychiatrischen Universitätsklinik Heidelberg, dann München. Betrachtete die neuroanatomische Basis für psychiatrische Erkrankungen als spekulativ und in der Praxis unbrauchbar. Stützte sich daher auf eine Krankheitssystematik, die ausschließlich klinische Syndromprofile als Abgrenzungskriterien akzeptierte. Sigmund Freud (1856-1938), Begründer der Psychoanalyse, zu nächst Neuropathologe am Neurologische Institut in Wien. Empfand jedoch - ähnlich wie Kraepelin – die Schwierigkeiten, für psychiatrische Erkrankungen eine anatomisch-klinische Übereinstimmung zu finden, und entwickelte so eine anatomielose „Seelenmedizin“. Das Kind wurde mit dem Bade ausgeschüttet. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 139 Citations 1 Of all ways of defining man, the worst is the one which makes him out to be a rational animal. Anatole France 1844-1924 You must capture and keep the heart of the original and supremely able man before his brain can do its best. Andrew Carnegie 1835-1919 An adjudgement can be disproved a prejudice never. Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach 1830-19 The intuitive esprit is a sacred gift and the rational intellect a loyal servant. We have created a society that forgot the gift and praises the servant. Albert Einstein 1879-1955 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 140 70 Citations 2 Great ideas rather spring from a great emotion than from a great intellect. Fjodor Michailowitsch Dostojewskij 1821-1881 The blending of psychology and economics will lead nowhere. The mix is becoming popular simply because conventional economics has failed to explain how asset prices are set. Merton H. Miller 1994 Man may be able to do what he wants, but he can not choose to want what he wants. Arthur Schopenhauer 1788-1860 To be productive you must enjoy. Theodor Fontane Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 141 Citations 3 David Myers David Myers, Psychologist, Hope College; author, "Intuition" As a Christian monotheist, I start with two unproven axioms: 1. There is a God. 2. It's not me (and it's also not you). Together, these axioms imply my surest conviction: that some of my beliefs (and yours) contain error. We are, from dust to dust, finite and fallible. We have dignity but not deity. And that is why I further believe that we should a) hold all our unproven beliefs with a certain tentativeness (except for this one!), b) assess others' ideas with open-minded skepticism, and c) freely pursue truth aided by observation and experiment. This mix of faith-based humility and skepticism helped fuel the beginnings of modern science, and it has informed my own research and science writing. The whole truth cannot be found merely by searching our own minds, for there is not enough there. So we also put our ideas to the test. If they survive, so much the better for them; if not, so much the worse. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 142 71 Citations 4 Robert Sapolsky Neuroscientist, Stanford University, author, "A Primate's Memoir" Mine would be a fairly simple, straightforward case of an unjustifiable belief, namely that there is no god(s) or such a thing as a soul (whatever the religiously inclined of the right persuasion mean by that word). ... I'm taken with religious folks who argue that you not only can, but should believe without requiring proof. Mine is to not believe without requiring proof. Mind you, it would be perfectly fine with me if there were a proof that there is no god. Some might view this as a potential public health problem, given the number of people who would then run damagingly amok. But it's obvious that there's no shortage of folks running amok thanks to their belief. So that wouldn't be a problem and, all things considered, such a proof would be a relief - many physicists, especially astrophysicists, seem weirdly willing to go on about their communing with god about the Big Bang, but in my world of biologists, the god concept gets mighty infuriating when you spend your time thinking about, say, untreatably aggressive childhood leukemia. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 143 Conclusion: seven suggestions (not only) for investors Man is not just a thinking machine but at least as much a feeling machine. With no emotion as to the consequences of actions there is no right or wrong. The act of prediction is addictive. We are hard wired to make forecasts based on repetition and alteration. A brain that predicts gains looks like a brain that is high on drugs or sex. Illusion of control, pharmacologically addiction prone. Work your dopamine, you can’t possibly fight it. Seven suggestions Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 144 72 1: Define the right (accessible) objectives Happiness, well-being is not identical to performance. Thrill, fun, status gain are as legitimate. Saving is not always just deferred consumption. Investing in equities, riding the roller coaster of equity markets, can be fun (and thus consumption). „Hedonic Investment“, motivation and emotion of an investor developing complex investment strategies may be comparable to a sky diver preparing to jump. Self-commitment, burning the bridges makes use of cognitive dissonance (endowment effect). Think positively. Happiness by pleasant anticipation of gains, however improbable they may be, nobody can take away again. But beware of euphoria, the hangover wont take long to come. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 145 1a: Don‘t worry, be happy - the brain runs on fun Good moods, while they last, enhance the ability to think flexibly and with more complexity, thus making it easier to find solutions to problems, whether intellectual or interpersonal. One way to help someone think through a problem, is to tell her a joke. Laughing, like elation, seems to help people think more broadly and associate more freely, noticing relationships that might have eluded them otherwise - a mental skill important for creativity, recognizing complex relationships, foreseeing the consequences of a decision. The intellectual benefits of a good laugh are most striking when it comes to solving a problem that demands a creative solution. One study found that people who had just watched a video of television bloopers were better at solving a puzzle long used by psychologists to test creativity. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 146 73 1b: Good mood enhances performance, not (only) the other way round Andrew Lo et al, 2004 Online-Traders with more self-control underperform. Improving mood the night before explains 24% of the variance of performance of the best third of outperformers. Deteriorating mood the night before explains 35% of the variance of performance of the worst third of underperformers. Only trade when in the mood! Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 147 1c: Lustgewinn durch Träumen von Gewinnen Darüber sprechen, ausmalen Diversifizieren Lotterie: 1 € Einsatz Gewinn 1 Mio € a) oder 1€ Gewinn 10 Mio € b) oder 10 € Gewinn 10 Mio € c) oder 10 € Gewinn 1 Mio € Chance 1/1Mio Chance 1/10 Mio Chance 1/1Mio Chance 1/100.000 Bei sehr kleinen Wahrscheinlichkeiten bewirken selbst deutliche Veränderungen keine Verhaltensänderung. Wer 10 € investieren will, kauft vermutlich lieber 10 x a) als b) oder c) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 148 74 1d: Schopenhauer Wer viel lacht, ist glücklich, und wer viel weint, ist unglücklich. ...Dieserwegen sollen wir der Heiterkeit, wann immer sie sich einstellt, Tür und Tor öffnen: Denn sie kommt nie zur unrechten Zeit; statt daß wir oft Bedenken tragen, ihr Eingang zu gestatten, indem wir erst wissen wollen, ob wir denn auch in jeder Hinsicht Ursach haben, zufrieden zu sein; oder auch, weil wir fürchten, in unsern ernsthaften Überlegungen und wichtigen Sorgen dadurch gestört zu werden: Allein was diese bessern ist ungewiss, hingegen ist Heiterkeit ein unmittelbarer Gewinn. Sie allein ist gleichsam die bare Münze des Glücks und nicht, wie alles andere, bloß der Bankzettel, weil nur sie unmittelbar in der Gegenwart beglückt, weshalb sie das höchste Gut ist für Wesen, deren Wirklichkeit die Form einer unteilbaren Gegenwart zwischen zwei unendlichen Zeiten hat. Schopenhauer, Aphorismen zur Lebensweisheit Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 149 1e: Goethe Weißt du, worin der Spaß des Lebens liegt? Sei lustig! – Geht es nicht, so sei vergnügt. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 150 75 1f: Die Kirche im Dorf lassen Unser Gehirn neigt dazu, die Folgen positiver wie negativer Entwicklungen auf die Stimmung zunächst maßlos zu überschätzen. Lebenszufriedenheit pendelt sich (wieder) ein. Lottogewinn und Querschnittslähmung Gehaltserhöhung Erfolgreiche und weniger erfolgreiche Investments Ausnahmen: chronische Schmerzen, Lärm Homöostase, wir haben eine starke Tendenz zum Gleichgewicht, physiologisch und psychologisch (Hedonische Adaption) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 151 1g: Fighting hedonic adaptation: variety There is nothing wrong with homeostasis that lets us cope with a dire strait but hedonic adaptation to good news takes away the pleasure we deserve. That should be fought against. Strategies to avoid hedonic adaptation could be: Behavioral activities (Sport, Sex, Socializing) Cognitive activities (trying to see the best, count your blessings, Pollyanna) Volitional activities (striving for achievable personal goals, devoting effort to meaningful causes) Strategies of creativity, distraction, variety, and surprise: it is the surprising punch line that makes the joke funny. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 152 76 1h: Recognize and neutralize spoil sports Bad mood reduces intellectual capacities. Cognitive Control, not speaking up freely, ties up intellectual resources. This are the (hidden) costs of political correctness. Here could also be an additional cause for the inferiority of committee decisions. Increasing demand on explanation and documentation of investment decisions by asset managers may reduce the risk of litigation but will also reduce performance. The same holds true for the present regulatory bubble. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 153 1i: Zerredete Entscheidungen - auch nicht besser Viele Anlage-Alternativen bei begrenzter Information und Verarbeitungskapazität (Verfügbarkeitsheuristik) Beardstown ladies:1983-91 +8% wird zu -6% Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 154 77 1j: Glücklich ist, wer vergisst, … The brain runs on fun besseres Problemlösungsverhalten, Kreativität Wir wollen glücklich sein Kognitive Dissonanz, was wir haben ist besser Wir gucken uns die Welt schön Erfolge schreiben wir uns zu, Misserfolge anderen Unangenehme Situationen vermeiden wir (krankhaft) Regel: Ändern, was zu ändern ist, alles andere akzeptieren Aber: Wer glücklich ist, ändert nichts, neigt zur Passivität Selbstreparaturmechanismen: Hedonische Adaptation bestraft Passivität Wir suchen Spannung, den Kitzel Wir sind neidisch, konstruktiv oder destruktiv $ Amerikaner wollen auch nach oben € Deutsche wollen „Die da Oben“ runterholen Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 155 1k: Das Geheimnis von Glückspilzen Nur zu gern schieben wir die Verantwortung für eigenes Scheitern und Malheure auf höhere Mächte. Das Verhalten ist sehr menschlich, hindert uns jedoch daran, Herausforderungen aktiv anzugehen und zu einem Glückspilz zu werden. "Wiseman gab 1994 eine Anzeige auf, in der er ausgesprochene Glückspilze und Pechvögel suchte. Er kam zu dem Schluss, dass man rund zwölf Prozent aller Menschen als Sonntagskinder bezeichnen könne, während neun Prozent scheinbar ständig vom Pech verfolgt würden. Daraufhin begann Wiseman die Persönlichkeitsmerkmale dieser beiden Extremgruppen zu untersuchen und stellte fest, dass sich Glückspilze dank ihrer Denk- und Verhaltensweisen eher als andere Menschen Glück verheißende Situationen schaffen, diese erkennen und auch nutzen. Daher gewinnen sie öfter bei Preisausschreiben weil sie sich häufiger daran beteiligen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 156 78 1l: Laugh Your Way to Good Health and a Longer Life Happy people will be healthier, live longer, have more sex than unhappy people. That's why they're happy. Or the other way round, you too watching old movies and eating the wrong things instead of exercising with good friends before a vegan dinner and some cultural event - could be healthier, live longer and have more sex. If you would only cheer up. Negative affect is associated with a greater risk of heart disease, diabetes and disability. Positive affect is connected to greater longevity. Even worse, "A lack of positive affect rather than negative affect predicts mortality, stroke and the development of disability in older adults." You don't even have to be depressed to fare worse; a lack of happiness will wreck your golden years. The researchers asked 116 men and 100 women to record how happy they felt during the day. They also tested blood pressure and heart rate, and cortisol levels in saliva. Cortisol is a stress hormone, the less the better. And they conducted mental stress tests and took blood samples to determine response to stress. Naturally, the happier people were better off. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 157 1m: Go On, Laugh Your Heart Out Laughter may be good for your heart. Laughing causes the tissue that forms the inner lining of blood vessels, the endothelium, to expand and thereby increase blood flow - exactly what aerobic exercise does. Researchers had 20 healthy volunteers watch a 15-minute segment from "Kingpin," a 1996 Woody Harrelson comedy, and then 48 hours later view the opening battle scene from "Saving Private Ryan". After each movie, researchers used ultrasound to measure changes in blood vessel reactivity. On average, blood flow increased 22 percent after the Harrelson movie, comparable to the increase brought on by aerobic exercise, and decreased 35 percent after "Saving Private Ryan." While a comedy can be good for people, a stress-inducing movie can have a negative effect on cardiac health, said Dr. Michael Miller. “Anything that evokes an emotional response has an impact on the heart" that can be negative as well as positive. He speculates that laughter induces the release of beneficial endorphins, just as exercise. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 158 79 2: Recognize (= perceive and accept) your emotions The conscious mind works on 40-60 bits/sec and keeps track of a maximum of 7 objects, that is only a fraction of the processing capacity of the subconscious. The „Id“ often perceives faster and always more. Be conductive to ideas that are not (yet) based on information to the conscious mind (brainstorming). To the „(number-)crunch” factor add the „hunch” factor. Be conductive to but not just a conduct of ideas from the subconscious. “Id” is trigger happy and tends to decide on scant information (heuristics of availability, anchors, similarities, attention, Antonio’s pizza). Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 159 2a: Co-ordination between the "thinking" and the "feeling" regions Colin Camerer, of the California Institute of Technology, has conducted experiments in which brain-scanned participants play strategic games with anonymous partners. In these, a subject chooses his own actions and also tries to anticipate the choices of the other player. When players are doing the best that they can to "win" the game by anticipating their opponents' moves, their brains tend to show a high degree of co-ordination between the "thinking" and the "feeling" regions. Economic equilibrium, by this measure, is an identifiable "state of mind". Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 160 80 2b: An emotional registry for investors? Establish an emotional registry (Antoine Bechara) To the rational analysis of the cortex the limbic system adds the valuations and prejudice from emotions felt in similar situations in the past. The emotional registry helps to realize and thus neutralize these prejudices. a) How did I feel last time and b) what was the outcome? (a) explains why if wish to act. (b) could be the basis to decide against this emotional urge. Alongside your trading records, keep feeling records especially important for young investors. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 161 2c: Soros’ “Emotional Registry” “My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that, But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bull---t. I mean, you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm, and it’s this early warning sign.” (Robert Soros, describing his father George, quoted by Jason Zweig, Money Magazine, Money and the Mind, How Neuroscientists Are Cracking the Code of Investment Behavior, Presentation at AIMR Annual Conference, Toronto, 14. Mai 2002) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 162 81 2d: Inkubation (Ap Dijksterhuis) People should consciously think about the decisions they make. When faced with decisions such as whether to buy a house or whether to switch jobs, thorough conscious contemplation is expected to lead to the best decisions. But although consciousness can be said to be “smart” and rational, it is also of very limited capacity. This means that when making decisions about rather complex, multifaceted issues, conscious thought can be maladaptive and lead to poor decisions. This conclusion is less sobering than it may seem, because it does not mean that people are poor decision makers: “Unconscious thought” (i.e., chewing on a problem without directed conscious thought) can lead to very sound decisions. The great inventor Thomas Alva Edison supposedly, fell into a trance when looking for solutions to difficult problems . Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 163 2e: Intuition often superior to analytical dissection Susanne Haberstroh, (University of Erfurt) Spontaneous judgments are based on an automatic counting of instances. This leads to accurate judgments, even though people do not have an insight into the aggregation or the judgment process. When people think carefully about their judgment, they consider additional information, leading to biased judgments. Jamin Halberstadt & Steve Catty, (Otago University) Explicitly analyzing the reasons for a judgment – the opposite of intuition -- can interfere with its quality. We argue that reasons analysis disrupts the use of very simple “fast and frugal” heuristic cues, leading to an overemphasis on seemingly important, but ultimately irrelevant information. In several new studies participants used subjective familiarity as a cue to judgments about the objective popularity of music. Participants more often (correctly) chose the more subjectively familiar of two songs as the more objectively popular one when they made their judgments intuitively rather than following reasons analysis. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 164 82 2f: Irrational choices I do not believe that people are capable of rational thought when it comes to making decisions in their own lives. People believe they are behaving rationally and have thought things out, of course, but when major decisions are made - who to marry, where to live, what career to pursue, what college to attend, people's minds simply cannot cope with the complexity. When they try to rationally analyze potential options, their unconscious, emotional thoughts take over and make the choice for them. Roger Schank, Psychologist and computer scientist; author, "Designing World-Class E-Learning". . Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 165 2g: Entscheidungen reifen lassen Das Schlimmste in allen Dingen ist die Unentschlossenheit Napoleon Bonaparte Unentschlossenheit bindet Kapazitäten. Deshalb haben wir eine Tendenz, vorschnell zu entscheiden und (oft wider besseres Wissen) an einmal getroffenen Entscheidungen festzuhalten. Bei der Rechtfertigung hilft die kognitive Dissonanz. Erfolgreiche Strategen sind bereit, die Unentschlossenheit zu ertragen bis die unbewussten Denkprozesse alle Informationen verarbeitet haben. Entscheidungen reifen lassen, Inkubation Winner take all principle of neural signal-extraction Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 166 83 2h: Implizites Lernen (wie beim Sport) Intuitive decision making is a central mode of deciding in fastpaced sports such as ball games. Johnson and Raab (2003) showed that intuitive option-generation results in better choices than deliberative and prolonged option generation. Their TakeThe-First heuristic describes how people generate options and explains dynamical inconsistencies in a given situation. One means of becoming an expert in intuitive decision making is through implicit learning. Implicit learning results in knowledge of situation-action relations that can not be verbalized. The benefits of intuitive versus deliberative decision making, by means of implicit or explicit learning strategies, are discussed as ecological rationality. This approach defines what strategies will be successful on the road to excellence, dependent on the type of sport-specific situation. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 167 2i: Emotion + Ratio für erfolgreiches Handeln Andrew Lo et al. 2002: Online-Trader mit stärkerer Selbstkontrolle underperformen, Allerdings ist starke emotionale Reaktion ebenfalls performance-schädlich. A longstanding controversy is whether financial markets are governed by rational forces or by emotional responses. We study the importance of emotion in the decision-making process of professional securities traders by measuring their physiological characteristics during live trading sessions. We find significant correlation between electrodermal responses and transient market events, and between changes in cardiovascular variables and market volatility. „From an evolutionary perspective, emotion is a powerful adaptation that dramatically improves the efficiency with which animals learn from their environment and their past.“ Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 168 84 2j: Risiko- und Belohnungsschätzung im ACC Gyrus cinguli anterior im medialen frontalen Cortex Fehlererkennung und –korrektur; error-related negativity (ERN) beginnt nach 100 Millisekunden, also bevor der Fehler bewusst erkannt wurde. Längerfristige Einschätzung von Gewinn und Verlust wenn bei komplexen Strategien ein Verlust positiv sein kann (weil ein größerer vermieden wird) oder Gewinn negativ sein kann (weil ein größerer verpasst wird). Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 169 2k: Intuition Intuition will tell the thinking mind where to look next. Jonas Salk Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 170 85 3: Accept the limits to your knowledge My main topic is evaluation and decision making, but first a glance at perception and memory. The amount of information around us is unlimited. A very minor part of it we can apprehend with our senses. Of this we perceive only what fits in our (sometimes extremely distorted) model of reality. Some of that we remember somehow for some time but in a form that can be severely altered with the next recall. (Only) when the memorized item is marked with an emotion it is taken into account for evaluation and decision making. Winner Take All Nature of Neural Processing Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 171 3a: Gut gepanzert Unser Gehirn ist gegen physische Einflüsse von außen recht gut geschützt. Noch viel stärker aber ist der Schutz vor Informationen, besonders vor verwirrenden oder unangenehmen Informationen. Die Sensoren außen am Panzer übermitteln nur einen Bruchteil der außen verfügbaren Informationen nach innen und wir können die Wiedergabe beliebig manipulieren. Störungen an der Schnittstelle zwischen Informationen von außen und dem Innenraum empfinden wir manchmal als religiöses Erlebnis. “What humans actually see is a reflexive manifestation of past rather than a logical analysis of the present.“ Dale Purves and R. Beau Lotto, Why We See What We Do, An Empirical Theory of Vision, Sunderland, MA, 2003 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 172 86 3b: Mit wenig Wissen umgehen Dinge wahrzunehmen ist der Keim der Intelligenz. Laotse Es ist kein Verlass auf die Erinnerungen, und dennoch gibt es keine Wirklichkeit außer der, die wir im Gedächtnis tragen. Klaus Mann Unser Leben baut nicht unser Gedächtnis, vielmehr baut unser Gedächtnis unser Leben. Die Summe der Miteinander verwobenen Erinnerungen ist so etwas wie eine Ich-Maschine. Frank Ochmann + Markus Tollkopf Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 173 3g: Beware of guru-economics (Hans-Helmut Kotz) It‘s not what a man don’t know that makes him a fool, but what he does know that ain’t so. (Josh Billings) Le défi américain (JJSS 1968) Eurosclerosis (Herbert Giersch, Jahresgutachten 1976/77) USA „vercartert“ (1977-81, overconsumption, undersaving, and underinvestment - „A wasting disease“) The Japanese Challenge (Hermann Kahn 1979, 1990) The European Century „From the (neoclassical) perspective it is all the more galling that those economies in which banks play a greater role vis-à-vis auction type securities markets ... Appear to be doing better and perhaps for that very reason.“ Benjamin Friedmann 1990 New economy, the end of cycles (USA 2000 „The Model“) The Old Europe Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 174 87 3d: Biased research Students of Behavioral Finance are well aware of: Selective perception Anchors Heuristics of representation Illusion of knowledge nurtured by supportive media reports But even seemingly objective research as well creates a distorted view of reality only positive results are published Buy-recommendation by far outnumber Sell-recommendations Spurious Sense-Making: We tend to defend rationally what has been decided automatically on the subconscious level. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 175 3e: Due diligence but not general distrust A reasonable level of control is the basis of trust Power corrupts Corporate governance Auditing Due diligence General distrust is a wasting disease envy and jalousie are never satisfied level of well-being is reduced resources spend on self-preservation, control, (over)regulation are diverted from happiness, consumption, production, growth Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 176 88 3f: Black swans – learning to expect the unexpected The black swan is an outlier, an event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. Most people expect swans to be white because that’s what their experience tells them; a black swan is by definition a surprise. Nevertheless people tend to concoct explanations for them after the fact, which makes them appear more predictable, and less random, than they are. Our minds are designed to retain, for efficient storage, past information that fits into a compressed narrative. This distortion, called hindsight bias prevents us from adequately learning from the past. … A vicious black swan has an additional elusive property: its very unexpectedness helps create the conditions for it to occur. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 8. April 2004 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 177 4: Recognize your prejudices Behavioral finance: investors often act irrationally. Neuroscience has some evidence as to why that is so. Basis for critical reflection of this behavior applied to perception, valuation, decision, the whole panoply of behavioral finance. Erkenntnisdefizite (1) Heuristiken - mentale Modelle (2) Verzögerte Wahrnehmung (3) Selektive Wahrnehmung (4) Wahrnehmungsschwellen (5) Risiken überschätzt (6) Selbstüberschätzung - Overconfidence Bewertungsprobleme (1) Präferenzen und Vorurteile (2) Reaktionsschwellen (3) Widersprüche bei der Risikobewertung (4) Konformismus, Herdentrieb, Ansteckung Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de Inkonsequenz bei der Entscheidung (1) Entscheidungsheuristiken (2) Bewahrung des status quo (3) Splittingeffekte (4) Buchhaltungs-Alchemie (5) Framing (6) Aversion to Regret (7) Dispositionseffekt (8) Mehrheitsentscheidungen The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 178 89 4a: ... and thus neutralize unfounded urges When I realize, that my preference for BAYER over BASF is due to the fact that I live in Bayer town Wuppertal (home bias), I can put that into perspective and relativize. When I realize that only the disposition effect lets me stick to my looser shares, I can sell them. Gefahr erkannt - Gefahr gebannt or: Un homme averti en vaut deux or: once burned twice shy? Martin Weber’s student’s portfolios Antonio’s pizza Hans Eberspächer’s spittle Highway amygdala - prefrontal cortex: scant oncoming traffic We have to keep trying. Heisenberg’s Unschärferelation applied to emotion: any emotion reflected is not the same any more. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 179 4b: Blinde Risikoaversion kontrollieren Shiv, Loewenstein, Bechara nach Ernst Fehr, 2005 Lotterie mit PFC-Patienten und normaler Kontrollgruppe 20 mögliche Ziehungen mit sofortiger Auszahlung 1 $ Einsatz, 50% Wahrscheinlichkeit für 2,50 $ Gewinn Erwartungswert also 1,25 $ PFC-Patienten spielten rational = 20 mal Gesunde reagierten auf Verlust mit Zurückhaltung bei künftigen Spielen. Verlust begründet also irrationale Risikoaversion Bei bekannten Wahrscheinlichkeiten sollte man sich zu Rationalverhalten zwingen können. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 180 90 5: Nurse your emotional intelligence Daniel Goleman 1994 Be aware of your own emotions. emotion management (becalm, comfort, encourage) Dr. Spitzbart’s mental hygiene, anchors and selective perception Committment, self-bondage, burned bridges - amplify the cognitive dissonance, the endowment effect Self-motivation, deferred reward - the basis of learning Discipline, the marshmallow test Recognize your neighbor's emotions (empathy) relationship management Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 181 5a: Empathy – the Mirror Neuron Empathy with others seems to be due to a type of brain cell called a mirror neuron. Seeing a clip from a James Bond movie in which a large, hairy spider is climbing over our hero's naked body the observer can feel—literally feel—Bond's fear. This ability not merely to know what someone else is feeling, but actually to feel it, is an important social attribute. Only in the past few years its neurological basis has begun to be understood. It seems to rely on a type of nerve cell known as a mirror neuron, that is active when the individual whose brain it is in is engaged in some action or experiencing some sensation or emotion, and also when that particular action, sensation or emotion is being observed in someone else. Action-sensitive mirror neurons were the first to be found, discovered in rhesus monkeys. Dr Keysers chose to study an emotion, disgust. He put his volunteers in a brain scanner and wafted disgusting odours into their nostrils. The disgusting odours activated part of the brain called the anterior insula. He then played film clips of people's faces registering disgust and found activity in exactly the same part of the brain. The sense of touch, too, is mirrored in this way. Understanding what someone else thinks is the necessary first step to deceiving or even controlling them. The actions of mirror cells may have wide ramifications. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 182 91 5b: Gefühlsmanagement - Impulse Control Augusta Lewis Troup Middle School, New Haven Social Competence Program, 3 Stunden pro Woche Red light 1. Stop, calm down, and think before you act. Yellow light 2. Say the problem and how you feel. 3. Set a positive goal. 4. Think of lots of solutions. 5. Think ahead to the consequences. Green Light 6. Go ahead and try the best plan. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 183 5c: Dress Up: All that Glisters is Gold Aesthetics is hard-wired in the brain - even babies have an innate sense of beauty, choosing to gaze longer at lovelier faces. Parents have the same bias. Researchers at the University of Alberta observed that at the supermarket, less adorable tykes were more often allowed to engage in potentially dangerous activities. "When it came to buckling up, pretty and ugly children were treated in starkly different ways, with seat belt use increasing in direct proportion to attractiveness. Like lots of animals, we tend to parcel out our resources on the basis of value.“ An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis suggests that the goodlooking get more money and promotions. Being tall, slender and attractive could be worth a "beauty premium". Researchers report that taller men are more likely to win in business. Correlating 16-year-olds' height with their later salaries shows beanstalks grow up to earn about $789 more a year for each extra inch of height. Malcolm Gladwell did a survey of half the Fortune 500 C.E.O.'s, and found that the average C.E.O., at 6 feet, is about 3 inches taller than the average American man. Research also shows that obese women get 17 percent lower wages than women of average weight and that dishy professors get better evaluations from their students. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 184 92 6: Muster courage for contrarian investments Better performance than dead fish. You have to deal with maverick risk, the risk of being wrong and alone. And this risk is real. Fund managers who correctly saw the equity bubble, were not in the business any more, when proven right in mid 2000. Although right in the long term, they had been wrong longer than their clients were willing to tolerate. But it is even worse. As Bob Shiller states in his ”Irrational Exuberance”, every era, every location has its Zeitgeist. Strong pressure to group conformity is mainly on the subconscious level. Deviating behavior is felt by the other group members as a threat to their reliance on doing the right thing themselves. They don’t like that at all. Contrarian investors not only have to consider maverick risk, but also, and mainly, have to fight a very strong subconscious inclination to follow the crowd. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 185 6a: Social exclusion really hurts Feeling the Pain of Social Loss (Jaak Panksepp) Poets have long waxed lyrical about the pain of a broken heart. But, as Panksepp found, this metaphor may reflect real events in the mammalian brain. A brain neuroimaging study reveals that the brain areas that are activated during the distress caused by social exclusion are also those activated during physical pain. Thus, we now have an explanation for the feeling of physical pain that accompanies emotional loss - whether that be the loss of a loved one, rejection by one's social group, or the distress of separation experienced by young animals. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 186 93 6b: Caveman - or is women’s sensitivity superior? New Clues to Women veiled in black 1.7 Women to every depressed man, similar in 9 other countries. Women often claim to be more sensitive than men. From the evolutionary perspective that could make sense: the men as the roaming hunter and the women as the gatherers and housekeepers in control of the habitat. Inclination to “overthinking”, to dwell on petty sights, to mentally replay testy encounters, and to wallow in sad feelings. To ruminate over the common curveballs of life, like criticism at work or school or rejection by a friend. Dwelling on problems causes the initial sadness to snowball. Man are more likely than women to distract themselves, often by going off and doing something active, a healthy reaction. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 187 6c: more Contrarian Investments - Influence Robert B.Cialdini, Influence, Science and Practice, 4. Aufl. Needham, Ma. 2001, 8 Grundlagen und damit Angriffspunkte zur Einflussnahme auf Entscheidungen 1. Instinktreaktionen: Teuer=Gut, aber bitte mit Begründung 2. Geben und Nehmen: Verpflichtungen erfüllen 3. Committment and Consistency: sich treu bleiben 4. Social Proof: die Mehrheit hat recht 5. Sympathie: Attraktivität, Ähnlichkeit, Schmeichelei, Kooperation 6. Autorität: Titel, Kleidung, Auftreten, Auto, Größe 7. Knappheit: je weniger desto lieber 8. Primitiver Automatismus: Kurzschlussreaktion auf nur ein Merkmal. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 188 94 6d: mehr Contrarian Investments Einmal gefasste Meinungen sind nur schwer zu ändern. Überzeugung mit Argumenten ist kaum möglich, weil man an die zugrunde liegenden Gefühle nicht rankommt Man nimmt selektiv nur bestätigende Informationen war (confirmatory bias) oder sucht sogar aktiv danach zu jeder Expertenmeinung lässt sich auch ein Experte finden, der genau das Gegenteil behauptet. Wenn das so ist, wird die Schweigespirale zum Rationalverhalten Warum streiten, wenn ohnehin nichts dabei rauskommt? Lieber den Boten bestrafen als die Botschaft akzeptieren! Zwei mögliche Strategien für Nonkonformisten Beschränkung der Kontakte auf Gleichgesinnte (Sekten) Maverick Position, Nonkonformismus als Masochismus (Russel) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 189 6e: Organize for embarrassment In der ex-post-Analyse sollte mehr zwischen dummen und intelligenten Fehlern unterschieden werden. intelligenten Fehler sollten belohnt werden. In Anlagediskussionen sollten lebhafte Meinungsverschiedenheiten nicht nur akzeptiert sondern ermutigt werden. Ideen, die jeder teilt, sind entweder nichts sagend oder überholt. Wenn mutige Entschlüsse erschwert werden, können die Entscheidungen und ihre Resultate nur mittelmäßig sein. Siehe für eine ausführliche Darstellung schon Lawrence S. Spidell, Embarrassment and Riches: The Discomfort of Alternative Investment Strategies, Comfort and peace of mind at non-financial portfolio returns that come at a high price, in: The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 1990, S. 6-11 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 190 95 7: Discipline Winning investment bets is fun, but normally takes hard training. Persistent outperformance on financial markets requires: solid proficiency of financial instrument and analytical tools, control of illusions as to the reliability of our return forecast (low) and risk evaluations (even worse), Discipline, to stay on course when all others sway. Discipline is rarely fun Entertainment value of disciplined strategies no match for exploding tech stocks, penny stocks, gambling Discipline by definition means to follow preset rules instead of following the current emotional urges. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 191 Wohin geht die Hirnforschung medizinisch? Nach (PET) und fMRI optische Scans mit Infrarot-Spektroskopie Alzheimer Früherkennung mit PET Auslösen von Gefühlen durch elektro-magnetische Stimulierung Pille des Vergessens Verlässliche Tests der Risikobereitschaft, besonders die Erkennung von psychopathischer Risikoneigung (Zocker) Medikamente zur Regulierung von Dopamin und anderen Neurotransmittern. Serotoninblocker z.B. schon zur Behandlung von Depressionen und Phobien freigegeben. Drogen erhöhen die Dopaminauschüttung (Heroin, Kokain) oder vermindern die Serotoninauschüttung (Ecstasy) - Bekämpfung der Sucht mit Ersatzdrogen oder elektrischer Stimulierung. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 192 96 Psychotropic drugs 2003 retail drug sales worldwide were $317 billion. In the United States alone, consumers spent $163 billion on drugs. The use of drugs that affect the central nervous system, antidepressants and others, increased 17 percent. Antidepressants are the third biggest class of pharmaceuticals by sales in the United States, totaling $11 billion in 2003. Drugs in the top two categories — statins to reduce cholesterol levels and proton pump inhibitors to prevent heartburn, gastritis, ulcers and other digestive problems — had sales of about $14 billion and $13 billion, respectively. All CNS drugs amounted to 37 bn. One problem is that need can be manufactured by advertising. Even children know from television that if you are sad and worried, there is a pill for you. It is a lot harder to find out that there are other ways to feel better, physically and emotionally, than taking drugs. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 193 Psychotropic drugs and investment decisions Robert D. Rogers, Oxford: dietary manipulation of concentration of neuromodulators changes behavior in risky situations Ingestion of amino acid drink lacking serotonin precursor 1tryptophan reduces volunteer’s attention to gains but not to prospective losses. The beta-adrenoceptor- blocker propanolol did not alter volunteer’s attention to gains but did reduce their attention to losses particularly, while considering high risk choices. The selective noradrenaline reuptake blocker reboxitine enhances attention to losses. All these manipulations also markedly alter interaction with other players in Prisoner’s Dilemma tasks for monetary reward. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 194 97 Behavior: Uncertain Expectations Life is full of "what-ifs," yet each of us has to collapse multiple uncertainties into a binary yes/no in order to be able to make any decisions at all. Yu and Dayan have constructed a computational model that combines two types of uncertainty--the first incorporates the predictive value of a validated cue, and the second quantifies the likelihood that the existing cue is no longer valid and that a new one needs to be identified--and propose that these are encoded by the neuromodulators acetylcholine (ACh) and norepinephrine (NE); to be precise, by cholinergic and noradrenergic circuits, respectively. In their generalized Posner task, a red arrow points toward the side where the target will appear most of the time, whereas arrows of other colors are randomly oriented. As the predictive value of the red arrow declines, acetylcholine increases. At unspecified times, the red arrow stops carrying information, and another arrow becomes the predictive cue. During this changeover, norepinephrine increases, signaling the need to search for the cuing color. When the exquisite balance of these systems is disrupted, inappropriate behaviors ensue: A drop in norepinephrine leads to perserverence and a lack of adaptability; conversely, a drop in acetylcholine results in hyperdistractability. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 195 Behavior: Simian Economics Monkeys show the same “irrational” aversion to risks as humans When faced with an exchange whose outcome is predictable only on average, most people prefer to avoid the risk of making a loss than to take the chance of making a gain when the average expected outcome of the two actions would be the same. There has been a lot of discussion about whether it is the product of cultural experience or is a reflection of a deeper biological phenomenon. So Keith Chen and colleagues decided to investigate its evolutionary past, experimenting with monkeys. First they introduced their monkeys to the idea of a cash economy. They did this by giving them small metal discs while showing them food. The monkeys quickly learned that humans valued these inedible discs so much that they were willing to trade them for scrumptious pieces of apple, grapes and jelly. Once the price had been established, though, it was changed. The size of the apple portions was doubled, effectively halving the price of apple. The result was that apple consumption went up in exactly the way that price theory (as applied to humans) would predict. Then they tested their animals' risk aversion by offering them three different trading regimes in succession. What the responses have in common is a preference for avoiding apparent loss. That such behaviour occurs in two primates suggests a common evolutionary origin. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 196 98 SSRIs – selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors Noelle, daughter of Jeb Bush, tried for falsification of Xanax prescription Approaching „Soma“ of Aldous Huxley‘s „Brave New World“ Evidenced in English ground water Standard in therapy of adolescents, possibly associated with higher suicide risk Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 197 Talk is cheap - And surprisingly effective FOR almost a century after Sigmund Freud pioneered psychoanalysis, “talk therapy” was the treatment of choice for many mental illnesses. Advances in neurology and pharmacology, have called such therapy into question. When psychological and emotional disturbances is traced to faulty brain chemistry and corrected with a pill, the idea that sitting and talking can treat clinical depression might seem outdated. Robert DeRubeis and his colleagues have conducted the largest clinical trial to compare talk therapy with chemical antidepressants. The result: talking works as well as pills do. Better, if you take into account the lower relapse rate. The study looked at cognitive therapy, which tries to teach people how to change harmful thoughts and beliefs. Patients learn to recognise negative thoughts to replace them with positive ones. In the study of 240 patients one group was treated with cognitive therapy, a second with Paxil, an antidepressant drug, and the third group were given placebo pills. After 16 weeks of treatment, the results for those on cognitive therapy and drugs were identical. 58% had shown improvement. Only 25% of those on the placebo improved. The surprising advantage of cognitive therapy is that it seems to keep working even after the therapy sessions. A year after treatments ended, only 31% had relapsed into their former state, while 76% of those on antidepressants, and then been taken off them, had done so. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 198 99 THE RESPONSIBLE PARENT'S GUIDE TO HEALTHY MOOD-BOOSTERS FOR ALL THE FAMILY Could we live happily ever after? Perhaps. One's interest in the genetically pre-programmed states of sublimity sketched in The Hedonistic Imperative is tempered by the knowledge that one is unlikely to be around to enjoy them. In centuries to come, our baseline of emotional well-being may indeed surpass anything today's legacy wetware can even contemplate. Right now, however, a future Post-Darwinian Era of paradise-engineering can seem an awfully long way off. There's clearly a strong causal link between the raw biological capacity to experience happiness and the extent to which one's life is felt to be worthwhile. So one very practical method of lifeenrichment consists in chemically engineering happier brains for all in the here-and-now. Yet how can this best be done? Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 199 Gedächtnisforschung, -stimulierung Supercharging the brain, Economist, Sept. 11, 2004 Eric Kandel (Nobelpreis Medizin 2000) entwickelt eine Pille gegen das Vergessen (CREB, cyclic response element binding protein). MCI, mild cognitive impairment, Vorstufe zu Alzheimer? Modafinil (Provigil, Alertec) cognitive enhancers Pillen für das Vergessen (Adrenalin-Blocker) Stephan Klein, Niemand hat die Pflicht, sich zu erinnern, FAZ 24. Juni 2004 S.35 Wo war denn noch gleich…? Ochmann/Tollkopf 2004 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 200 100 Gefühlskälte - Alexithymie Sie kennen keine Freude, empfinden keine Trauer und werden selten wütend. Fast jeder Siebte erfüllt die Kriterien einer "Alexithymie". Emotionen entstehen tief im Gehirn, im limbischen System. Um als Gefühle wahrgenommen zu werden, muss der Frontalcortex die von dort ausgesandten Informationen analysieren. Man hat Hinweise, dass bei alexithymen Menschen die beiden Hirnbereiche unzureichend miteinander kommunizieren. Der Gyrus cinguli dient als Brücke zwischen limbischem System und Frontalcortex dem Bewusstwerden von Emotionen. Wird seine Aktivität nicht richtig moduliert, hat das Konsequenzen. Psychiater vermuten, dass einige psychosomatische Beschwerden von der Unfähigkeit herrühren, eigene Emotionen in Worte zu fassen, um sie mental verarbeiten zu können. Außerdem macht eine Alexithymie anfälliger für Drogen. Unter Süchtigen finden sich prozentual gesehen mehr alexithyme Personen. Einige Drogen wie Kokain rufen intensive Gefühle hervor - vermutlich verstärken sie die Kommunikation zwischen limbischem System und Frontalcortex so extrem, dass selbst alexithyme Menschen emotionale Fülle empfinden. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 201 Schmerzforschung Soziale Ablehnung wird wie schmerz empfunden (siehe auch Anregung 6a) Mitleiden geht über einen Teil, aber nicht über die volle painmatrix Placebos beeinflussen auch die Schmerzempfindung, nicht nur die Erwartung Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 202 101 Schlafforschung It is an axiom of sleep research that not all sleep is equal. A night's sleep is divided into five continually shifting stages, defined by types of brain waves that reflect either lighter or deeper sleep. Toward morning, there is an increase in rapid eye movement, or REM sleep, when the muscles are relaxed and dreaming occurs, and recent memories may be consolidated in the brain. Sleep-deprived snooze-button addicts are likely to cut short their quota of REM sleep, impairing their mental functioning during the day. Feeling alert is not just a matter of getting the right dose of different kinds of sleep. The body has its own alarm clock, a circadian rhythm in which fluctuations in hormones like cortisol, melatonin, ghrelin and growth hormone regulate sleepiness and alertness, as well as other body functions. And sleep patterns can run on a schedule different from a person's body clock. Trying to sneak in more sleep when someone is used to getting up early can cause the body to switch to an alert mode, making any extra sleep light and fragmented. On the other hand, if someone's body is on a later cycle from habitually staying up late, waking up early is that much harder because the body is not yet pumping out peak levels of cortisol and other hormones that help wake people up. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 203 Neurophysiologie des Träumens Stuff that dreams are made on, Economist, 11. September 2004 über Arbeiten von Matthias Bischof und Claudio Bassetti Träume erzeugt oder vermittelt durch „right inferior lingual gyrus“. Fraglich ob man nur in der Rem-Phase träumt. Fraglich ob Träume zum Aufbau des Langzeitgedächtnisses nötig sind. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 204 102 Neurophysiologie der Sucht Handlungen, die eine Dopaminauschüttung auslösen, will man sobald und so oft wie möglich wiederholen. Wer diesen Drang nicht beherrschen kann (Kontrollverlust), ist süchtig. Wenn die durch die Handlung bewirkte Dopaminauschüttung schwächer ist, weil die Rezeptoren nicht hinreichend ausgebildet sind, oder schwächer wird, weil die Wirkung ja schon erwartet wurde, folgt die Erhöhung der Dosis. Jede Art von Sucht manipuliert das Belohnungssystem in ihrer eigenen Form, aber immer ist der Nucleus Accumbens aktiv. Das ist die Basis für Hirnschrittmacher oder Medikamente, mit denen die Andockstellen der Suchtdrogen besetzt werden. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 205 Neuroscience of Addiction: Nicotine Larry had already tried to quit and failed four times in the last five years. Every aspect of his waking life, from morning coffee to nighttime television, was entwined with smoking. When he described the effects of smoking, he lapsed into a dreamy adoration usually reserved for lovers. Patients accept treatments because they are better than the disease. The central challenge of treating any addiction is that the treatment is almost never as pleasurable as the addiction itself. Like opiates and cocaine, nicotine is known to stimulate the release of dopamine in the reward pathways of the brain. This explains its pleasurable and powerfully selfreinforcing effects. Nicotine also releases an array of other neurotransmitters like serotonin, norepinephrine and vasopressin that mediate its other effects, like arousal, alertness and relaxation. I decided to give him high-dose nicotine replacement. Only one form of nicotine replacement can approach the delivery system of a cigarette - nasal nicotine spray. Because it is absorbed rapidly into the bloodstream through the nasal mucosa, it produces a spike of nicotine in the brain, just as inhaled nicotine in tobacco smoke does. I simply switched Larry's nicotine system from lethal tobacco to a plastic spray bottle, but left his nicotine addiction untouched. And though little is known about the very long-term risks of nicotine in humans, I wager that they pale next to the certain lethality of cigarettes. After all, it's the smoke that kills, not the nicotine. . Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 206 103 Spielsucht "Die Glücksspiel-Mentalität wächst, Fragen an Gerhard Meyer 25 Millionen Euro sind im Jackpot. Die Spieler stürmen die Annahmestellen. Kann Lottospielen süchtig machen? Ja, aber nicht so leicht wie andere Glücksspiele. Süchtige suchen schnelle Spielabfolgen. Das höchste Suchtpotential haben Automaten, weil im Sekundentakt das nächste Spiel möglich ist. Dadurch erlebt man kaum den Verlust. Wenn man verloren hat, kann man sofort weitermachen - und die Hoffnung auf Gewinn kommt wieder ins Spiel. Dieser Prozess ist im Lotto gestreckt. Christian Büschetief: Bei Spielsüchtigen zeigte sich eine geringere Aktivität des Belohnungssystems (Nucleus Accumbens) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 207 Psychochirurgie Behandlung von therapiefraktären Angst- und Zwangskranken mit Hirnschrittmacher. Hochfrequente Stromstöße zum Nucleus Accumbens Eher reversibel als Ausschaltungsoperationen. Linderung auch bei Gilles-de-la-Tourette-Syndrom (TS), einer neuropsychiatrischen Erkrankung, die durch Tics charakterisiert ist. Bei den Tics handelt es sich um unwillkürliche, rasche, meistens plötzlich einschießende und mitunter sehr heftige Bewegungen, die immer wieder in gleicher Weise einzeln oder serienartig auftreten können. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 208 104 The Behavior of Genes, Nature or Nurture Many people are leery of attributing other components of behavior to genes - personality or intelligence, or social traits like fidelity, for example. They're troubled by the ethical implications of genetic determination; it is as if giving a nod toward the genes automatically diminishes the role of the environment and free will. It is nature versus nurture: a debate that has spawned extremist views on both sides, from Nazism (nature) to Marxism (nurture). Animal behaviors may be simpler than human behaviors, but they all involve molecules known to operate in human brains. What these studies show is that the genome is responsive over different scales of time. Like voles and fruit flies, individuals may differ in gene activity because of DNA variations they inherited. These differences evolve over very long periods of time, from generation to generation. This is nature. Individuals may also differ in gene activity because of variations in their environment, like the rats and honeybees. These differences occur over shorter times, within individual lifetimes. This is nurture. In the past, biological conceptions of behavior that are influenced by genetics tended to be rigid and deterministic, spurring misguided concepts like "a gene for aggression." In contrast, social and behavioral scientists have long emphasized the flexible nature of behavior, and as a result have tended to ignore genes entirely. But as much as people like to divide themselves into nature or nurture camps, what genes actually do in the brain reflects the interaction between hereditary and environmental information. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 209 Evidence that psychopaths are born, not made Rather than being shaped by nature or nurture, most behavioural traits are the result of an interaction between the two. Nevertheless, one can be the dominant factor. A study suggests that in psychopathy, the genetic side is very important indeed. The researchers have drawn their conclusion from a study of twins on the books of a long-term project known as the Twins Early Development Study, which has been following several thousand twins since their births in 1994 and 1995. Among other things, many of the twins have been assessed both for a tendency to bad behaviour and for the display of callous-unemotional traits, such as a lack of feelings of guilt after doing something wrong, or not having at least one good friend. Twins come in two varieties: fraternal, in which the individuals have half their genes in common and identical, in which the individuals have all their genes in common. Behavioural traits with a large genetic component are more likely to be shared by identical twins. Traits with a large environmental component will be shared by identical and fraternal twins in equal measure. Applying appropriate statistical techniques allows the relative contributions of genes and environment to be worked out. The researchers identified the naughtiest 10% of the individuals in their sample—in other words those with severe conduct disorder. Their analysis showed that bad behaviour without psychopathy has relatively little genetic component—less than a third. By contrast, four-fifths of the difference in behaviour between the general population and children with psychopathic traits seems to lie in the genes. The genes in question are too abundant to be there by chance—in other words they are being kept in the population by natural selection because psychopathic behaviour sometimes confers a selective advantage. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 210 105 Replication of the Stockholm Adoption Study BACKGROUND: Two forms of alcoholism with distinct clinical features and mode of inheritance were first distinguished in the Stockholm Adoption Study. This involved a large sample of children born in Stockholm, Sweden, who were adopted at an early age and reared by nonrelatives. Type 1 alcoholism had adult onset and rapid progression of dependence without criminality, whereas type 2 had teenage onset of recurrent social and legal problems from alcohol abuse. METHODS: A replication study was carried out with 577 men and 660 women born in Gothenburg, and adopted at an early age/by nonrelatives. The genetic and environmental backgrounds of the adoptees were classified by the exact procedures calibrated by discriminant analysis in the original study. RESULTS: Both type 2 and severe type 1 alcoholism were confirmed as independently heritable forms of alcoholism in male adoptees. The lifetime risk of severe alcoholism was increased 4-fold in adopted men with both genetic and environmental risk factors characteristic of type 1 alcoholism. In contrast, the risk of type 2 alcoholism was increased 6-fold. CONCLUSION: Type 1 and type 2 alcoholism are clinically distinct forms of alcoholism with causes that are independent but not mutually exclusive. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 211 Linkage of Alcoholism to Serotonin 5-HT1B Receptor Background Is the 5-HT1B gene (HTR1B) is linked to alcoholism with aggressive and impulsive behavior in the human, as represented by 2 psychiatric diagnoses: antisocial personality disorder and intermittent explosive disorder comorbid with alcoholism? Methods Linkage was first tested in 640 Finnish subjects, including 166 alcoholic criminal offenders, 261 relatives, and 213 healthy controls. This was followed by a study in a large multigenerational family derived from a Southwestern American Indian tribe (n=418). All subjects were psychiatrically interviewed and typed for a HTR1B G861C polymorphism and for a closely linked short-tandem repeat locus, D6S284. Linkage was evaluated in sib pairs. Results In Finnish sib pairs, antisocial alcoholism showed significant evidence of linkage to HTR1B G861C (P=.04) and weak evidence with D6S284 (P=.06). By association analysis, the 183 Finnish antisocial alcoholics had a significantly higher HTR1B-86IC allele frequency than the other 457 Finns we studied (P=.005). In the Indian tribe, significant sib pair linkage of alcoholism to HTR1B G861C (P=.01) was again observed, and there was also significant linkage to D6S284 (P=.01). Conclusion These results suggest that a locus predisposing to antisocial alcoholism may be linked to HTR1B at 6q13-15. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 212 106 Some Politics May Be Etched in the Genes Political scientists have long held that people's upbringing determine their political views, but on the basis of a new study, a team of political scientists is arguing that people's reaction to issues like the death penalty is strongly influenced by genetic inheritance. Calculating how often identical twins agree on an issue and subtracting the rate at which fraternal twins agree provides a rough measure of genes' influence on that attitude. On school prayer, for example, the identical twins' opinions correlated at a rate of 0.66. The correlation rate for fraternal twins was 0.46. This translated into a 41 percent contribution from inheritance. Attitudes about issues like school prayer, property taxes and the draft were among the most influenced by inheritance. Others like modern art and divorce were less so. And in the twins' overall score genes accounted for 53 percent of differences. The researchers found that the twins' self-identification as Republican or Democrat was far more dependent on environmental factors than was their social orientation. Inheritance accounted for 14 percent of the difference in party, the researchers found. "We are measuring two separate things here, ideology and party affiliation". The researchers are not optimistic about the future of bipartisan cooperation or national unity. Because men and women tend to seek mates with a similar ideology, they say, the two gene pools are becoming, if anything, more concentrated, not less. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 213 Re-cognition of Race The recognition that races are real should have several benefits. To begin with, it would remove the disjunction in which the government and public alike defiantly embrace categories that many, perhaps most, scholars and scientists say do not exist. Second, the recognition of race may improve medical care. Different races are prone to different diseases. The risk that an African-American man will be afflicted with hypertensive heart disease or prostate cancer is nearly three times greater than that for a European-American man. On the other hand, the former's risk of multiple sclerosis is only half as great. Geneticists have started searching for racial differences in the frequencies of genetic variants that cause diseases. They seem to be finding them. Race can also affect treatment. African-Americans respond poorly to some of the main drugs used to treat heart conditions - notably beta blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. Pharmaceutical corporations are paying attention. Many new drugs now come labeled with warnings that they may not work in some ethnic or racial groups. Here, as so often, the mere prospect of litigation has concentrated minds. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 214 107 Wohin geht die Hirnforschung erkenntnistheoretisch? Neurophysiologie des Bewusstseins und freien Willen Neurophysiologie der vagabundierenden Ängste Gedankenhygiene, gezielte selektive Wahrnehmung Neurophysiologie des Mitleids und des Gewissens Neurophysiologie des Glaubens und der Religion Neurophysiologie der Kriminalität Neurophysiologie der Sucht (Drogen, Rauchen, Spielen, Internet) Neurodidaktik, Optimierung des Lernens Konzept der AI (artificial intelligence) steht vor neuen Herausforderungen, wenn Intelligenz Emotionen erfordert. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 215 FAZ- Diskussion: Freier Wille oder beherrscht vom ES? Klaus Lüderssen (Strafprozessrechtler, 4. November 2003), Hans-Ludwig-Kröber (Experte für forensische Psychiatrie, 11. November 2003), Eberhard Schockenhoff (Theologe, 17. November 2003), Gerhard Roth (Hirnforscher, 1. Dezember 2003) Reinhard Olivier (Mathematiker, 13. Dezember 2003), Herbert Helmrich (Jurist, 30. Dezember 2003), Wolf Singer (Neurophysiologe, 8. Januar 2004), Lutz Wingert (Philosoph, biowissenschaftlicher Naturismus, 12. Januar 2004), Thomas Buchheim (Philosoph, 19. Januar 2004), Christian Schwägerl (Wissenschaftsjournalist, Neurodämmerung, Wer den Geist schützen will, sollte seine Moleküle kennen, 23. Januar 2004) Karl Clausberg und Cornelius Weiller (Neurologen, 31. Januar 2004) Ottfried Höffe (Philosoph, 11. Februar 2004) Christoph Koch (Neurophysiologe, 20. Februar 2004) Martin Stingelin (Literaturwissenschaftler, 26. Februar 2004) Gerd Kempermann (Hirnforscher, 2. März 2004) Michael Hagner, (Wissenschaftshistoriker, 22. März 2004) Holk Cruse, (Prof. für Biologische Kybernetik, Motorkontrolle, Autonome Roboter) 5. April 2004 Christian Geyer (Leitartikel 10. April 2004) Gerhard Kaiser (Literaturwissenschaftler, 17. April 2004) Christian Geyer, 30.Juni 2004, Hirn als Paralleluniversum Christian Geyer, 5. Juli 2004, Frieds Brainstorming (zur neuronalen Geschichtswissenschaft) Patrick Bahners, 21. Juli 2004, Der Intelligenztest - Wolf Singer gratuliert Angela Merkel Friedrich Wilhelm Graf. 23. Juli 2004, Denk mal höher! (zur Neurotheologie) Christian Geyer, 5. August 2004, Was läuft in diesem Kino? Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 216 108 Bewusstsein: Grenze für die Naturwissenschaft? Das neunzehnte Jahrhundert gilt als Blütezeit des Fortschrittsoptimismus und der Wissenschaftsgläubigkeit. Der Mediziner und Physiologe Emil Du Bois-Reymond nahm die 45. Versammlung Deutscher Naturforscher und Ärzte 1872 zum Anlaß, um über die "Grenzen des Naturerkennens" zu sprechen. Er fand zwei Grenzen, die die Naturwissenschaft nie würde überschreiten können: das Wesen der Materie und das des Bewußtseins. Er schloss mit dem berühmt gewordenen "Ignorabimus": Wir werden es niemals wissen. Doch bewahrheitet sich die Rede vom "naturwissenschaftlichen Zeitalter": Während die Kirche traditionell einen Prozeß anstrengte, um zu entscheiden, ob ein Wunder stattgefunden hatte, machten die Spiritisten Experimente. Subjektiver gingen die Literaten mit der eingeforderten Beschränkung aufs Rationale um. Der Mediziner Arthur Schnitzler versucht über das Protokollieren von Gedankenströmen in Tagträumen einen Schritt auf die andere Seite der Vernunft. Der Ingenieur Robert Musil unterschied das wissenschaftlich faßbare "Ratioide" vom nichtratioiden Feld der menschlichen Erfahrung. Und Gottfried Benn erzählte seinen Sprung aus dem Arztberuf in die Literatur als Sturz in den Wahnsinn. Die Wissenschaft ruiniert Sinnangebote, kann sie aber nicht ersetzen. Was das Bewußtsein angeht, teilen viele Autoren noch heute das "Ignorabimus". Zu erwarten ist aber, dass sich unsere Intuitionen darüber, was gute Erklärung und was erklärungsbedürftiges Phänomen ist, nach künftiger neurowissenschaftlicher Erkenntnis und philosophischer Begriffsarbeit verändern, so daß zumindest nicht ausgeschlossen ist, doch noch eine Verbindung zwischen dem Wissen über das Gehirn und dem eigenen Erleben zu finden. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 217 The Quest for Consciousness After the Double Helix: Francis Crick unravels the Mysteries of the State of Being, Body and mind are the twin problems around which Dr. Crick's life has spiraled, much like the double helix structure of DNA that he and James D. Watson discovered half a century ago. In his 28 years at the Salk Institute his work has focused on the mind, and consciousness. For the past decade he has been working with. Christof Koch, a professor of computation and neural systems at CalTech. Together they have developed a framework, which Dr. Koch has spelled out in his new book, "The Quest for Consciousness: A Neurobiological Approach.“ Using M.R.I., Dr. Koch's team has shown that in trace conditioning, an area of the brain known as the anterior cingulate cortex is activated. They have found that when they remove this area from mice, they cannot be trace conditioned, indicating that this area is critical for consciousness. The advent of M.R.I. made it possible to see which parts of the brain are active during a "percept" — as when someone sees a face. Understanding the neural correlates of consciousness N.C.C’s, will explain awareness. Instead of asking the philosophical question of what consciousness is, they try to understand what is going on at the neurological level when consciousness is present. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 218 109 Inside the Injured Brain, Many Kinds of Awareness Neuroscientists now understand some of the physiology behind unconscious states, from deep sleep to coma. New research, has allowed for clearer distinctions between the uncounted number of people who at some time become comatose, the 10,000 to 15,000 Americans who subsist in vegetative states and the estimated 100,000 in states of partial consciousness. The most familiar unconscious state is sleep, which in its deepest phases is characterized by little electrical activity in the brain and almost complete unresponsiveness. Coma is in fact a continuum. Doctors rate the extent to which a comatose person shows pain responses and reactions to sounds on a scale from 3, for no response, to 13, for consistent responses. In 2002, a panel of experts established a new diagnosis: the minimally conscious state. Recovery from severe brain damage is viewed as a step-wise progression: people who regain conscious awareness pass from a coma to a vegetative state to minimal consciousness. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 219 Consciousness Versus Reality 1 Donald Hoffman, Cognitive scientist I believe that consciousness and its contents are all that exists. Space-time, matter and fields never were the fundamental denizens of the universe but have always been, from their beginning, among the humbler contents of consciousness, dependent on it for their very being. The world of our daily experience is a species-specific user interface to a realm far more complex, a realm whose essential character is conscious. It is unlikely that the contents of our interface in any way resemble that realm. Indeed the usefulness of an interface requires, in general, that they do not. For the point of an interface, such as the Windows interface on a computer, is simplification and ease of use. Evolutionary pressures dictate that our species-specific interface, this world of our daily experience, should itself be a radical simplification, selected not for the exhaustive depiction of truth but for the mutable pragmatics of survival. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 220 110 Consciousness Versus Reality 2 Jean-Pierre Changeux, THE PHYSIOLOGY OF TRUTH Edmund T. Rolls: Changeux on the promise of neuroscience Eminent French neuroscientists have a tradition of producing books on scientific topics of general interest for a wide audience. Here, Jean-Pierre Changeux draws on provocative new findings about the neuroscience and psychophysics of perception and judgement both in humans and in non-human primates. His case is that belief in objective knowledge is a characteristic feature of human cognition, and the scientific method its most sophisticated embodiment. Professor Changeux seeks to explain the ways in which modern science has made it possible to understand how language, truth and even morals are related to our genes and gene products, and to interactions with the environment. Changeux promises a radical understanding in neurophysiological terms of how perception, exploration, trial and error, cognitive games, the cultural. (“He provides grouns for concluding that we can know the world as it really is.”) Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 221 Ein Homunculus im Gehirn? Das Konzept einer zentralen Kontrollinstanz als Ort des Bewusstseins wurde von der Neurobiologie längst zugunsten der Dezentralität in Form rückgekoppelter Schaltkreise verworfen. Christof Koch und Francis Crick sehen eine derartige Instanz aber für das Vor- oder Unbewusste, wenn Sie den Zombiemodus beschreiben, der es erlaubt, ohne Nachdenken und Planen zu reagieren, und ohne bewusste Wahrnehmung. Um wirklich bewusst zu werden, müssen sich solche "dynamischen Koalitionen" von Nervenzellen (hauptsächlich in Thalamus und Mandelkernen) im Wettbewerb gegen andere temporäre Nervennetze durchsetzen, Schwellenwerte der Erregung, Frequenzwettstreite und Kontrollinstanzen überwindend. So, schreiben Crick und Koch, entsteht Bedeutung. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 222 111 Neurophysiologie des Glaubens und der Religion Welche Hirnbereiche sind bei religiösen Erfahrungen besonders aktiv? Nähe zu Epilepsie Augustinus und andere Kirchenväter waren Epileptiker Hemmung der Aufnahme externer Sinnesempfindungen Im Grenzbereich zwischen autonomen und externen Reizen Neurotheology: Virtual Religion in the 21st Century von Laurence O. McKinney Amer Inst for Mindfulness Neurotheology: Brain, Science, Spirituality, Religious Experience von Rhawn Joseph, u. a. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 223 Neurotheology: Virtual Religion in the 21st Century by Laurence O. McKinney The most lively, readable and authoritative work on the interface between mind science and religion, Neurotheology: Virtual Religion in the 21st Century has become the classic in its field, a standard by which others are measured. Teachers, scientists, students, and readers worldwide have found answers they wanted to basic riddles we all face. McKinney’s ability to trace the basis and evolution of religious and metaphysical practice with modern brain scanning technology has been praised by experts in every field including leading Christian theologian Harvey Cox, the Dalai Lama, and visionary writer Arthur C. Clarke. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 224 112 Gott im Gen 1 Christ oder Atheist - entscheidet darüber nur eine Kaskade biochemischer Reaktionen und elektrischer Impulse im Hirn? Nach neuester Forschung ist die Suche nach Gott im Erbgut verankert. Völlig ins Gebet versunken, erlebt die Franziskanerschwester einen Moment tiefster religiöser Verbundenheit, ein "greifbares Gefühl der Nähe zu Gott und der Verschmelzung mit ihm". Hirnforscher halten ihren Bewusstseinszustand direkt im Gehirn fest. Deshalb kniet die Franziskanerin auf dem Boden eines radiologischen Labors. In dem Augenblick, in dem sie sich Gott am nächsten fühlt, zieht sie eine Schnur. Andrew Newberg, der Leiter der Studie, spritzt ihr daraufhin eine radioaktiv markierte Substanz, die sich im Gehirn überall dort anreichert, wo besonders viele Nervenzellen aktiv sind. Dann wird die Nonne in einen Tomografen geschoben. Tatsächlich zeigen die Aufnahmen charakteristische Veränderungen der Hirnaktivität, bei Franziskanerinnen beim Gebet oder Buddhisten bei ihrer Meditation. In einem vorderen Bereich des Gehirns, der für Aufmerksamkeit und Konzentration zuständig ist, ist die Aktivität erhöht. Weiter hinten seitlich im Kopf, wo vor allem die Orientierung des Menschen im Raum gesteuert wird, ist die Aktivität dagegen drastisch reduziert. In diesem Bewusstseinszustand kann das Gehirn die Grenze zwischen eigenem Körper und Außenwelt nicht mehr ziehen; der Eindruck, mit der Welt oder mit Gott zu verschmelzen, wird ganz real empfunden. Newberg ist überzeugt: "Wir haben den Beweis für einen neurologischen Prozess erbracht, der es uns Menschen ermöglicht, mit einem tieferen, geistigen Teil von uns selbst in Verbindung zu treten." Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 225 Gott im Gen 2 Eine Untersuchung von 1600 Zwillingspaaren am Londoner St. Thomas Hospital ergab: Nicht die Bereitschaft zum Kirchgang wird vererbt - sie hängt ganz wesentlich von der Erziehung ab. Aber vererbt wird der Glaube an Gott. Tim Spector: „Hier stellten wir einen vererbten Effekt von 40 Prozent fest", sagt Die Ergebnisse decken sich mit Aussagen des Molekularbiologen Dean Hamer: Nicht die Religiosität an sich wird vererbt, sondern eine gewisse Bereitschaft, spirituelle Grenzerfahrungen zu machen. "Der Hang zur Spiritualität ist ein Teil unseres genetischen Make-ups." Hamer behauptet, ein Gottesgen lokalisiert zu haben. Der Sinn fürs Übersinnliche soll in einer Erbanlage namens VMAT2 stecken. Hamer hatte 1998 mit einer Studie über Rauchen und Suchtverhalten begonnen. Mehr als 1000 Männer und Frauen beantworteten einen 240 Fragen umfassenden Psychotest, der Temperament und Charakter der Probanden ergründete. Ein Wesensmerkmal, das abgefragt wurde, war die so genannte Selbst-Transzendenz, die Fähigkeit, über seine Grenzen hinaus zu wachsen, sich mit dem Universum eins zu fühlen, sich in bestimmten Situationen völlig verlieren zu können und übernatürlichen Erklärungen Glauben zu schenken. In einer Variante des Gens VMAT2 zeigten die Testpersonen nur durchschnittliche Selbst-Transzendenz. War das Gen in der zweiten Variante vorhanden, die sich in einem einzigen biochemischen Buchstaben des genetischen Alphabets von der anderen unterscheidet, dann waren sie mystischen und spirituellen Vorstellungen gegenüber extrem offen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 226 113 Neurophysiologie des Humors Siehe auch unter dem Thema Dopamin Siehe auch unter dem Thema 1a: Don‘t worry, be happy „Beyond an understanding of comprehension itself, medical studies, planned to begin next year, may explore the relation of laughter to serotonin levels, or test for links to the immune system.“ Most gags consist of an unreal image with a rather ordinary caption. There is always, of course, the Heisenbergian concern that the more humor is studied, the more elusive it will become. Humor is like Groucho Marx. It refuses to join any club that would have it as a member. Mr. Mankoff preferred to paraphrase E.B. White, who said that dissecting humor was like dissection a frog: nobody is much interested, and the frog dies. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 227 Why people laugh One description of how laughter is provoked is the incongruity theory that says that all written jokes and many other humorous situations are based on an incongruity— something that is not quite right. In many jokes, the teller sets up the story with this incongruity present and the punch line then resolves it, in a way people do not expect. Alternatively, the very last words of the story may introduce the absurdity and leave the listeners with the task of reconciling it. Why do people laugh at all? Laughter is very contagious and this suggests that it may have become a part of human behaviour because it promotes social bonding. When a group laughs, the message seems to be “relax, you are among friends”. Appletree Rodden sees religion and humour as different, and perhaps competing, ways for people to accept death and the general unsatisfactoriness of the world. 95% of the writings from important Christian scholars disapprove of humour, linking it to insincerity and idleness. Another theory of why people laugh—the superiority theory—says that people laugh to assert that they are on a level equal to or higher than those around them. Bosses tend to crack more jokes than do their employees. Women laugh much more in the presence of men, and men generally tell more jokes in the presence of women. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 228 114 Hey, big spender - the neuroscience of saving Margo Wilson and Martin Daly, McMaster University, Hamilton Study with 200 young men and women Time preference individually different but consistent – at first Four (alternative) sorting tasks 12 attractive members of the opposite sex 12 non-lookers 12 beautiful cars 12 unimpressive cars Result: men (case 1) and women (case 3) discounted the future more steeply. Activity in the nucleus accumbens (forecasting, rewards, euphoria, hope, addiction) Men: mating opportunity mindset: “I want that now.” Women: status symbols, more susceptible to display of wealth Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 229 Neurophysiologie des Vertrauens Getting to Know You: Reputation and Trust in a Two-Person Economic Exchange, Brooks King-Casas u.a., Science 1 April 2005: 78-83 Using a multiround version of an economic exchange (trust game), reciprocity expressed by one player strongly predicts future trust expressed by their partner—a behavioral finding mirrored by neural responses in the dorsal striatum. Here, analyses within and between brains revealed two signals—one encoded by response magnitude, and the other by response timing. Response magnitude correlated with the "intention to trust" on the next play of the game, and the peak of these "intention to trust" responses shifted its time of occurrence by 14 seconds as player reputations developed. Economist 14. Februar 2004, S.77-79 Dazu auch: Männer und Mäuse, FAZ 5.7.04, S. 29 Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 230 115 Hormone May Increase People's Trust in Strangers The hormone oxytocin circulates widely in the body during childbirth and lactation - prompts warm relations and mating in other mammals. A simple administration of a hormone can consistently alter trust. In the study 178 male college students played a simple investment game. Investors began with 12 monetary units, of which they could send 12, 8, 4 or none to an unseen, anonymous "trustee." Those who inhaled oxytocin before playing the game invested an average of 10 monetary units, 17 percent more than did players who got a placebo spray. In the oxytocin group, 45 percent invested all their money, compared with 21 percent in the placebo group. Oxytocin is a kind of brain messenger that primes animals to overcome their natural aversion to others. This may be an especially important ability in people with autism. The prospect of used-car dealerships infusing the air with oxytocin to increase sales is far-fetched. The half-life of oxytocin in the air (in a spray) is just two or three minutes. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 231 The Chemistry of Trust, Paying through the nose Michael Kosfeld and Markus Heinrichs of the University of Zurich explored the biological underpinnings of trust. They found that trust is surprisingly mechanistic: sniffing oxytocin increases a person's level of trust in others. Oxytocin, a hormone produced by part of the brain called the hypothalamus. Oxytocin is a peptides that can cross into the brain if administered as a nasal spray. To probe oxytocin's role in promoting trust between people, the researchers invented a game involving an “investor” and an anonymous “trustee” in whom money, in the form of “monetary units” worth 40 Swiss centimes (32 cents) was invested. Each investor received 12 units. He could choose to keep all of them, or to give four, eight or all 12 of them to the trustee which would result in their value being tripled. All the investors and all the trustees had something sprayed up their noses before the experiment started. In some cases, though, there was no oxytocin in this spray. Of the investors who were sprayed with oxytocin, 45% invested the maximum of 12 units, while only 21% of those who received the control spray did so. On average, the oxytocin-sprayed group transferred 17% more money to their trustees than the controls. Oxytocin, therefore, seems to promote trust. While these results could be misused, the authors hope their findings will instead be used to treat mental disorders such as extreme social phobia. Nevertheless, beware of strange odours or mysterious vapours in the boardroom. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 232 116 Neurophysiologie der Liebe Drei Grundformen Begierde, Sinneslust, Sex Romantische Liebe, Schmetterlinge im Bauch Long-term attachment Economist 14. Februar 2004, S.77-79 Dazu auch: Männer und Mäuse, FAZ 5.7.04, S. 29 Stephan Klein, Das Glückshormon, Ausführungen zum präoptischen Areal Helen Fisher 2002, The neural mechanisms of mate choice Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 233 A Gene for Romance? So It Seems (Ask the Vole) Biologists have been making considerable progress in identifying genes that shape an animal's behavior toward others of its species. Social behavior genes present a particular puzzle since they involve neural circuits in the brain, often set off by some environmental cue One gene was long known to promote faithful pair bonding and good parental behavior in the male prairie vole. Researchers discovered how the gene is naturally modulated in a population of voles so as to produce a spectrum of behaviors from monogamy to polygamy, each of which may be advantageous in different circumstances. The male mouse depends on pheromones to decide how to behave toward other mice. It detects the pheromones with the vomeronasal organ, an extra scent-detecting tissue in the nose. The male mouse's rule for dealing with strangers is simple - if it's male, attack it; if female, mate with it. But male mice that are genetically engineered to block the scent-detecting vomeronasal cells try to mate rather than attack invading males. A second gene, much studied by fruit fly biologists, is known to be involved in the male's courtship behaviors. The gene is called fruitless because when it is disrupted in males they lose interest in females and instead form mating chains with other males. Female flies genetically engineered with the male form of fruitless aggressively pursued other females, performing all steps of male courtship except the last. Fruitless serves as a master switch of behavior, just as other known genes serve as master switches for building an eye or other organs. Other such behavior switch genes may well exist but could have evaded detection because disrupting them - the geneticist's way of making genes reveal themselves - is lethal. An organism's genome is closely linked to its environment, and that there can be elaborate feedback between the two. A remarkable instance of genome-environment interaction has been discovered in the maternal behavior of rats. Pups that receive lots of licking and grooming during the first week of life are less fearful in adulthood and more phlegmatic in response to stress. A gene in the brain is chemically modified during the grooming period and remains so throughout life. It makes the gene produce more of a product that damps down the brain's stress response. A question of some interest is how far the genetic shaping of behavior exists in people. Activities like the suckling of babies, maternal behavior and sexual drives are likely to be shaped by genes, but that sexual drives are also modulated by experience. Researchers can rigorously explore how behavioral genes operate in lower animals by performing tests that are impossible or unethical in people. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 234 117 The Smell of Power - Odour and Mating Preferences What’s a girl to do when faced with the choice between a powerful man who has great DNA but is likely to love her and leave her, and a bloke who will hang around and bring up the kids but may not be Mr Right? Ideally, she should fool the latter into bringing up the former's children. And this seems to be exactly what happens. A preference for the scent of dominants has been found in the females of other species. But whether the odour of power is attractive to women had not been established. Deciding who is and is not a dominant male the researchers turned to male students. They were asked to rate such things as their tendency to correct others, to want to control conversations, and to surpass others' accomplishments. The volunteers had to wear cotton pads under their armpits for 24 hours to collect the sweat, The female volunteers had to smell the pads and rate them for “intensity”, “sexiness” and “masculinity”. And to vouchsafe whether they were single or in an ongoing relationship with a man, and to submit to a saliva test that would show the phase of their menstrual cycle. The upshot of was that women did, indeed, find the odour of dominants sexier than that of wimps—but only when first the woman was in a relationship and second was in the most fertile phase of her cycle. In other words, dominant males' scent was only more attractive when a woman could both conceive and cuckold her mate. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 235 Neurophysiologie der Rache – oder Rache ist süß Egoistisches oder kooperatives Verhalten, Siel von Dominique de Quervain, Universität Zürich Wenn ein Spieler seinen Gewinn dem Partner schenkte, wurde der Betrag von Spielleiter verdoppelt. Wenn der Beschenkte sich dafür nicht erkenntlich zeigte, konnte er von den anderen Spielern mit Strafpunkten belegt werden. Die Verteilung der Strafpunkte aktivierte genau denselben Hirnbereich, der auch für freudige Empfindungen und emotionale Belohnung zuständig ist. Schon die Vorstellung der Rache löst die Belohnung aus. Man muss also nicht unbedingt tätig werden. Häufiger Abruft der Vorstellung von Revanche kann aber süchtig machen. Rachsucht! Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 236 118 Fairnesspräferenz Egoistisches oder kooperatives Verhalten Auch altruistische Marktteilnehmer lassen sich nicht gerne ausnutzen. Ein paar Egoisten genügen, um alle Kooperation zu stoppen. Nur wenn die fairen Individuen die Möglichkeit haben, unkooperatives Verhalten zu sanktionieren, lässt sich eine stabile Kooperation erzielen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 237 Smile Some people are not good for anything. But they still can put a smile on your face when you push them down a flight of stairs. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 238 119 Neurophysiologie der Lüge Traditioneller Lügendetektor: emotionale Erregung gemessen über Atem, Puls, Blutdruck, elektrischer Hautwiderstand Neu: Messung der emotionalen Erregung über Blutfluss im Gehirn mit Ultraschall-Doppler fMRI: Aktivität im Stirnhirn, Schläfenlappen, limbischen System Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 239 Society for Neuroscience 34rd Annual Meeting Over 31,000 neuroscientists met in San Diego for Neuroscience 2004, from Saturday, October 23, to Wednesday, October 27. The Society for Neuroscience Annual Meeting is the premier venue to meet and exchange the latest discoveries. The ability to process more than 15,400 scientific abstracts has been greatly facilitated by the electronic submission process. Over 99.8 percent of the abstracts were submitted electronically. Improved Abstracts CD A CD-ROM containing all abstracts and an Itinerary Planner is provided free to all members in place of the printed Abstracts volume. In response to feedback from meeting attendees, a number of improvements will be made to this year's CD including the ability to print abstracts more easily and to search for presentations of interest more efficiently. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 240 120 Neuroscience: Nothing to worry about? In a free society everybody is free to worry as she pleases, however absurd this may seem to a third party: A chain smoker may sue his barbecuing neighbor. A disco freak may suffer agonies hearing the dog next door. A free climber may only invest in bonds. In the spring of 2002 the Economist devoted its cover story to neuroscience and expressed amazement that so far nobody seems to worry. Quite in contrary to gene technology, neuroscience has so far escaped the radar screen of our concerned contemporaries. Although here the possibility for manipulation „poses far more of a threat to human dignity and autonomy than does cloning.“ Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 241 Die falsche Warnung der Forscher Jens Johler und Christian Stahl: Es gibt Menschen und Mächte, die nicht wissen sollten, wie das Gehirn funktioniert. Experimente, die auf die Kontrolle der Gedankenwelt abzielen, sind nichts Neues. Schon während des Zweiten Weltkriegs gab es Experimente, mit denen Forscher versuchten, das Bewußtsein zu beherrschen. Deutsche Ärzte verabreichten in Konzentrationslagern Mescalin und andere Drogen, um herauszufinden, welches die ideale Wahrheitsdroge wäre. Das amerikanische "Office for Strategic Services" unternahm ähnliche Experimente. Mitte der Siebziger flog die Sache mit den Menschenexperimenten auf. Zwar vernichtete CIA-Chef Richard Helms den größten Teil der Akten, aber was dem Reißwolf entging, reichte aus, um die Öffentlichkeit zu schockieren. Die Grundfrage lautete: "Können wir einen Menschen so weit beeinflussen, daß er unsere Befehle auch gegen seinen Willen ausführt, selbst entgegen dem Selbsterhaltungstrieb?" Das Ziel war klar formuliert, nur die Mittel waren noch unvollkommen. Aber die Wissenschaft rastet nicht, sie rast. Was einmal Fortschritt heißen durfte, ähnelt mehr und mehr besinnungsloser Raserei. Einen besonderen Beschleunigungsschub bekam die Bemühung, "das Rätsel des menschlichen Geistes zu lösen", dadurch, daß der amerikanische Kongreß das letzte Jahrzehnt des vergangenen Jahrhunderts zur "Dekade der Hirnforschung" ausrief. Gerade haben elf führende deutsche Hirnforscher ein "Manifest" veröffentlicht, in dem sie Auskunft geben über Gegenwart und Zukunft der Hirnforschung. Das Manifest skizziert die schöne neue Welt der Zukunft: In nicht allzu weiter Ferne werden wir mit Hilfe der Gehirnforschung imstande sein, Alzheimer und Parkinson zu heilen; wir werden neue Psychopharmaka für die Behandlung von Schizophrenie und Depressionen entwickeln; wir werden auch Neuroprothesen haben wie eine künstliche Retina und intelligente Ersatzgliedmaßen. Und ebenso werden uns die Forschritte der Hirnforschung "vermehrt in die Lage versetzen, psychische Auffälligkeiten und Fehlentwicklungen, aber auch Verhaltensdispositionen zumindest in ihrer Tendenz vorauszusehen - und ,Gegenmaßnahmen' zu ergreifen". Versuche gibt es schon. Es gibt sogar den Antrag, die Messung von Gehirnströmen als neue Form des Lügendetektors bei Gericht zuzulassen. Was es noch nicht gibt, ist der Gehirnscan bei der Einreise nach Amerika: Hier ist ein Bild von Usama Bin Ladin. Das Feuer deiner Neuronen wird mir sagen, ob du mit ihm sympathisierst oder nicht. Unsere elf führenden Gehirne sehen diese Gefahr auch: "Solche Eingriffe in das Innenleben, des Menschen sind mit vielen ethischen Fragen verbunden, deren Diskussion in den kommenden Jahren intensiviert werden muß." In den kommenden Jahren? Besser sofort! Das ist nicht wissenschaftsfeindlich. Es gab in den letzten Jahren die ethische Diskussion über embryonale Stammzellen, PID, therapeutisches Klonen und das genetische Design von Tier und Mensch. Aber im Fall der Hirnforschung geht es nicht um einen Neuentwurf der Spezies Mensch, hier geht es um Kontrolle, Macht, Entmündigung. "In diesem zukünftigen Moment", heißt es im Manifest, "schickt sich unser Gehirn ernsthaft an, sich selbst zu erkennen." Verkenne dich selbst! In Wahrheit geht es durchaus nicht um "wir" und "unser" und darum, daß irgendein Gehirn sich selbst erkennt. Es geht darum, daß Forscher mit Computern, Elektroden, Chips und Drogen sich "in diesem zukünftigen Moment" anschicken, zum Angriff auf unsere Gehirne überzugehen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 242 121 Neuroscience and Neuroethics Children with ADHD are often given methylphenidate after a physician considers their need. High school and college students without benefit of evaluation are using the same drug in the hope of improving their exam performance. Aside from the health risks associated with such drugs, what is it that bothers us here? Perhaps it is our belief that the playing field should be level--we worry about the students who can't access the drug. Well, what about the kids who can't afford a preparatory course for taking a standardized test? The ability to peer into brain processes also intensifies old privacy questions. Suppose that fMRI records become individually diagnostic with respect to some behavioral anomaly or predictive of some future tendency. In the future, brain imaging techniques could conceivably be employed in the context of a court procedure as a test of truth-telling or subpoenaed in a case involving violence. Finally, special issues arise when we penetrate into the philosophical territory where dualists and determinists debate over free will. As we learn more about the neurobiology of choice and decision, will we reach a point at which we feel less free? Perhaps more important for society, will we eventually know enough to change our view about individual responsibility for antisocial acts? Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 243 Das Manifest - Elf führende Neurowissenschaftler über Gegenwart und Zukunft der Hirnforschung Was wissen und können Hirnforscher heute? Angesichts des enormen Aufschwungs der Hirnforschung in den vergangenen Jahren entsteht manchmal der Eindruck, unsere Wissenschaft stünde kurz davor, dem Gehirn seine letzten Geheimnisse zu entreißen. Doch hier gilt es zu unterscheiden: Grundsätzlich setzt die neurobiologische Untersuchung des Gehirns auf drei verschiedenen Ebenen an. Die oberste erklärt die Funktion größerer Hirnareale, beispielsweise spezielle Aufgaben verschiedener Gebiete der Großhirnrinde, der Amygdala oder der Basalganglien. Die mittlere Ebene beschreibt das Geschehen innerhalb von Verbänden von hunderten oder tausenden Zellen. Und die unterste Ebene umfasst die Vorgänge auf dem Niveau einzelner Zellen und Moleküle. Bedeutende Fortschritte bei der Erforschung des Gehirns haben wir bislang nur auf der obersten und der untersten Ebene erzielen können, nicht aber auf der mittleren. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 244 122 Die oberste Organisationsebene Verschiedene Methoden ermöglichen einen Einblick in die oberste Organisationsebene des Gehirns: Bildgebende Verfahren wie die Positronenemissionstomografie (PET) und die funktionelle Magnetresonanztomografie (fMRT), die den Energiebedarf von Hirnregionen messen, besitzen eine gute räumliche Auflösung, bis in den Millimeterbereich. Zeitlich gesehen hinken sie den Vorgängen allerdings mindestens um Sekunden hinterher. Die klassische Elektroenzephalografie (EEG) dagegen misst die elektrische Aktivität von Nervenzellverbänden quasi in Echtzeit, gibt aber nicht genau Aufschluss über den Ort des Geschehens. Etwas besser - etwa im Zentimeterbereich - liegt die räumliche Auflösung bei der neueren Magnetenzephalografie (MEG), mit der sich die Änderung von Magnetfeldern um elektrisch aktive Neuronenverbände millisekundengenau sichtbar machen lässt. Insbesondere durch die Kombination mehrerer dieser Technologien können wir das Zusammenspiel verschiedener Hirnareale darstellen, das uns kognitive Funktionen wie Sprachverstehen, Bilder erkennen, Tonwahrnehmung, Musikverarbeitung, Handlungsplanung, Gedächtnisprozesse sowie das Erleben von Emotionen ermöglicht. Damit haben wir eine thematische Aufteilung der obersten Organisationsebene des Gehirns nach Funktionskomplexen gewonnen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 245 Die unterste neuronale Organisationsebene Auch hinsichtlich der untersten neuronalen Organisationsebene hat die Entwicklung völlig neuartiger Methoden wie etwa der Patchclamp-Technik, der Fluoreszenzmikroskopie oder des XenopusOocyten-Expressionssystems zu einem Erkenntnissprung geführt. Inzwischen wissen wir sehr viel mehr über die Ausstattung der Nervenzellmembran mit Rezeptoren und Ionenkanälen sowie über deren Arbeitsweise, die Funktion von Neurotransmittern, Neuropeptiden und Neurohormonen, den Ablauf intrazellulärer Signalprozesse oder die Entstehung und Fortleitung neuronaler Erregung. Selbst was in einem einzelnen Neuron passiert, können wir mit hoher räumlicher und zeitlicher Auflösung analysieren sowie in Computermodellen simulieren. Dies ist von großer Bedeutung für das Grund legende Verständnis der Arbeitsweise von Sinnesorganen und Nervensystemen sowie für die gezielte Behandlung neurologischer und psychischer Erkrankungen Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 246 123 Die mittlere neuronale Organisationsebene Zweifellos wissen wir also heute sehr viel mehr über das Gehirn als noch vor zehn Jahren. Zwischen dem Wissen über die obere und untere Organisationsebene des Gehirns klafft aber nach wie vor eine große Erkenntnislücke. Über die mittlere Ebene - also das Geschehen innerhalb kleinerer und größerer Zellverbände, das letztlich den Prozessen auf der obersten Ebene zu Grunde liegt - wissen wir noch erschreckend wenig. Auch darüber, mit welchen Codes einzelne oder wenige Nervenzellen untereinander kommunizieren (wahrscheinlich benutzen sie gleichzeitig mehrere solcher Codes), existieren allenfalls plausible Vermutungen. Völlig unbekannt ist zudem, was abläuft, wenn hundert Millionen oder gar einige Milliarden Nervenzellen miteinander "reden". Nach welchen Regeln das Gehirn arbeitet; wie es die Welt so abbildet, dass unmittelbare Wahrnehmung und frühere Erfahrung miteinander verschmelzen; wie das innere Tun erlebt wird und wie es zukünftige Aktionen plant, all dies verstehen wir nach wie vor nicht einmal in Ansätzen. Mehr noch: Es ist überhaupt nicht klar, wie man dies mit den heutigen Mitteln erforschen könnte. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 247 Was wissen und können Hirnforscher in zehn Jahren Was wir in zehn Jahren über den genaueren Zusammenhang von Gehirn und Geist wissen werden, hängt vor allem von der Entwicklung neuer Untersuchungsmethoden ab. Das "Wo" im Gehirn, über das uns heute die funktionelle Kernspintomographie Auskunft gibt, sagt uns noch nicht, "wie" kognitive Leistungen durch neuronale Mechanismen zu beschreiben sind. Für einen echten Fortschritt in diesem Bereich benötigen wir ein Verfahren, das die Registrierung beider Aspekte in einem ermöglicht. Wie entstehen Bewusstsein und Ich-Erleben, wie werden rationales und emotionales Handeln miteinander verknüpft, was hat es mit der Vorstellung des "freien Willens" auf sich? Die großen Fragen der Neurowissenschaften zu stellen ist heute schon erlaubt - dass sie sich bereits in den nächsten zehn Jahren beantworten lassen, ist allerdings eher unrealistisch. Selbst ob wir sie bis dahin auch nur sinnvoll angehen können, bleibt fraglich. Dazu müssten wir über die Funktionsweise des Gehirns noch wesentlich mehr wissen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 248 124 Was wissen und können Hirnforscher in zehn Jahren Sehr wohl aber kann es der Hirnforschung innerhalb der nächsten Dekade gelingen, Erkenntnisse zu erarbeiten, die für Antworten auf diese übergeordneten Fragen entscheidend sein werden. So wollen wir herausfinden, wie Schaltkreise von Hunderten oder Tausenden Neuronen im Verbund des ganzen Gehirns Information codieren, bewerten, speichern und auslesen. Die mittlere Ebene - die Untersuchung der Arbeitsweise von kleineren Bereichen des Nervensystems, von Mikroschaltkreisen - gelangt also zunehmend in den Mittelpunkt der Forschung. Das bisher übliche Verfahren, solche Fragen an Gehirnschnitten zu untersuchen, gehört dann wahrscheinlich der Vergangenheit an, da es nur Momentaufnahmen in einem nicht mehr als Ganzen funktionierenden Schaltwerk darstellen kann. Stattdessen können wir in zehn Jahren wahrscheinlich die räumliche und zeitliche Verteilung von neuronaler Erregung bis auf die Ebene aller beteiligten Neurone in einem Mikroschaltkreis mit bildgebenden Verfahren hoher zeitlicher Auflösung im intakten Nervensystem erfassen. Multiple-Photonenmikroskopie, funktionelle Farbstoffe und molekulargenetische Methoden versetzen uns in die Lage, die Regeln des Informationsflusses innerhalb einzelner Neurone und im Verbund von Neuronen zu erkennen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 249 Was wissen und können Hirnforscher in zehn Jahren Ganz wesentlich unterstützt wird das Verständnis der Arbeitsweise von Mikroschaltkreisen durch eine detailreiche Modellierung mit Hochleistungsrechnern. Diese Modellierung orientiert sich weniger an den Konzepten der Informatik und künstlichen Intelligenz als vielmehr an den wirklichen physiologischen Vorgängen. Und zwar nicht nur an denen der unteren Ebene - einzelnen Neuronen mit ihren Ausstattungen an Kanälen und Rezeptoren -, sondern vor allem auch an den neuronalen Prozessen der bisher noch so wenig verstandenen mittleren Ebene. So wird sich neben der experimentellen Neurobiologie die theoretische Neurobiologie als Forschungsdisziplin durchsetzen, die dann ähnlich wie die theoretische Physik innerhalb der Physik eine große Eigenständigkeit besitzt. Am Ende der Bemühungen werden die Neurowissenschaften sozusagen das kleine Ein-Mal-Eins des Gehirns verstehen. Daraus lassen sich dann strenge Hypothesen zum Studium übergeordneter Hirnfunktionen ableiten: beispielsweise wie das Gehirn seine zahlreichen Subsysteme so koordiniert, dass kohärente Wahrnehmungen und koordinierte Aktionen entstehen können. Ohne diesen entscheidenden Zwischenschritt über die "mittlere" Organisationsebene bleiben die Aussagen über den Zusammenhang zwischen neuronal beobachtbarer Aktivität und kognitiven Leistungen weiterhin spekulativ Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 250 125 Was wissen und können Hirnforscher in zehn Jahren Vor allem was die konkreten Anwendungen angeht, stehen uns in den nächsten zehn Jahren enorme Fortschritte ins Haus. Wahrscheinlich werden wir die wichtigsten molekularbiologischen und genetischen Grundlagen neurodegenerativer Erkrankungen wie Alzheimer oder Parkinson verstehen und diese Leiden schneller erkennen, vielleicht von vornherein verhindern oder zumindest wesentlich besser behandeln können. Ähnliches gilt für einige psychische Krankheiten wie Schizophrenie und Depression. In absehbarer Zeit wird eine neue Generation von Psychopharmaka entwickelt werden, die selektiv und damit hocheffektiv sowie nebenwirkungsarm in bestimmten Hirnregionen an definierten Nervenzellrezeptoren angreift. Dies könnte die Therapie psychischer Störungen revolutionieren - auch wenn von der Entwicklung zum anwendungsfähigen Medikament noch etliche weitere Jahre vergehen werden. Zudem werden Neuroprothesen wie intelligente Ersatzgliedmaßen oder das künstliche Ohr immer weiter perfektioniert. In zehn Jahren haben wir wahrscheinlich eine künstliche Netzhaut entwickelt, die nicht im Detail programmiert ist, sondern sich nach den Prinzipien des Nervensystems organisiert und lernt. Das wird unseren Blick auf das Sehen, auf die Wahrnehmung, vielleicht auf alle Organisationsprozesse im Gehirn tief greifend verändern. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 251 Was wissen und können Hirnforscher in zehn Jahren Ebenso werden uns die zu erwartenden weiteren Fortschritte in der Hirnforschung vermehrt in die Lage versetzen, psychische Auffälligkeiten und Fehlentwicklungen, aber auch Verhaltensdispositionen zumindest in ihrer Tendenz vorauszusehen - und "Gegenmaßnahmen" zu ergreifen. Solche Eingriffe in das Innenleben, in die Persönlichkeit des Menschen sind allerdings mit vielen ethischen Fragen verbunden, deren Diskussion in den kommenden Jahren intensiviert werden muss. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 252 126 Was werden Hirnforscher eines Tages wissen und können? In absehbarer Zeit, also in den nächsten 20 bis 30 Jahren, wird die Hirnforschung den Zusammenhang zwischen neuroelektrischen und neurochemischen Prozessen einerseits und perzeptiven, kognitiven, psychischen und motorischen Leistungen andererseits soweit erklären können, dass Voraussagen über diese Zusammenhänge in beiden Richtungen mit einem hohen Wahrscheinlichkeitsgrad möglich sind. Dies bedeutet, dass man widerspruchsfrei Geist, Bewusstsein, Gefühle, Willensakte und Handlungsfreiheit als natürliche Vorgänge ansehen wird, denn sie beruhen auf biologischen Prozessen . Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 253 Was werden Hirnforscher eines Tages wissen und können? Eine "vollständige" Erklärung der Arbeit des menschlichen Gehirns, das heißt eine durchgängige Entschlüsselung auf der zellulären oder gar molekularen Ebene, erreichen wir dabei dennoch nicht. Insbesondere wird eine vollständige Beschreibung des individuellen Gehirns und damit eine Vorhersage über das Verhalten einer bestimmten Person nur höchst eingeschränkt gelingen. Denn einzelne Gehirne organisieren sich aufgrund genetischer Unterschiede und nicht reproduzierbarer Prägungsvorgänge durch Umwelteinflüsse selbst - und zwar auf sehr unterschiedliche Weise, individuellen Bedürfnissen und einem individuellen Wertesystem folgend. Das macht es generell unmöglich, durch Erfassung von Hirnaktivität auf die daraus resultierenden psychischen Vorgänge eines konkreten Individuums zu schließen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 254 127 Was werden Hirnforscher eines Tages wissen und können? Im Endeffekt könnte sich eine Situation wie in der Physik ergeben: Die klassische Mechanik hat deskriptive Begriffe für die Makrowelt eingeführt, aber erst mit den aus der Quantenphysik abgeleiteten Begriffen ergab sich die Möglichkeit einer einheitlichen Beschreibung. Auf lange Sicht werden wir entsprechend eine "Theorie des Gehirns" aufstellen, und die Sprache dieser Theorie wird vermutlich eine andere sein als jene, die wir heute in der Neurowissenschaft kennen. Sie wird auf dem Verständnis der Arbeitsweise von großen Neuronenverbänden beruhen, den Vorgängen auf der mittleren Ebene. Dann lassen sich auch die schweren Fragen der Erkenntnistheorie angehen: nach dem Bewusstsein, der Ich-Erfahrung und dem Verhältnis von erkennendem und zu erkennenden Objekt. Denn in diesem zukünftigen Moment schickt sich unser Gehirn ernsthaft an, sich selbst zu erkennen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 255 Was werden Hirnforscher eines Tages wissen und können? Dann werden die Ergebnisse der Hirnforschung auch zu einer Veränderung unseres Menschenbildes führen. Sie werden dualistische Erklärungsmodelle - die Trennung von Körper und Geist - zunehmend verwischen. Ein weiteres Beispiel: das Verhältnis von angeborenem und erworbenem Wissen. In unserer momentanen Denkweise sind dies zwei unterschiedliche Informationsquellen, die unserem Wahrnehmen, Handeln und Denken zu Grunde liegen. Die Neurowissenschaft der nächsten Jahrzehnte wird aber ihre innige Verflechtung aufzeigen und herausarbeiten, dass auf der mittleren Ebene der Nervennetze eine solche Unterscheidung gar keinen Sinn macht. Was unser Bild von uns Selbst betrifft, stehen uns also in sehr absehbarer Zeit beträchtliche Erschütterungen ins Haus. Geisteswissenschaften und Neurowissenschaften werden in einen intensiven Dialog treten müssen, um gemeinsam ein neues Menschenbild zu entwerfen. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 256 128 Was werden Hirnforscher eines Tages wissen und können? Aller Fortschritt wird aber nicht in einem Triumph des neuronalen Reduktionismus enden. Selbst wenn wir irgendwann einmal sämtliche neuronalen Vorgänge aufgeklärt haben sollten, die dem Mitgefühl beim Menschen, seinem Verliebtsein oder seiner moralischen Verantwortung zugrunde liegen, so bleibt die Eigenständigkeit dieser "Innenperspektive" dennoch erhalten. Denn auch eine Fuge von Bach verliert nichts von ihrer Faszination, wenn man genau verstanden hat, wie sie aufgebaut ist. Die Hirnforschung wird klar unterscheiden müssen, was sie sagen kann und was außerhalb ihres Zuständigkeitsbereichs liegt, so wie die Musikwissenschaft - um bei diesem Beispiel zu bleiben zu Bachs Fuge Einiges zu sagen hat, zur Erklärung ihrer einzigartigen Schönheit aber schweigen muss. Buchenring 25 42281 Wuppertal Germany Dr. Helmut Henschel, WestLB Senior Consultant Tel. +49 211 826 6795 mob. +49 171 3039306 email: dr_helmut.henschel@westlb.de The Neuroscience of Investment Behavior Copenhagen, November 29, 2005 Seite 257 129