Israel Macro Economic Review

‫מודפס גם בעברית‬
Issue No. 124
May 2015
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI UK PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
Israel Macro Economic Review
By: By Yaniv Bar, Economic Department, Finance Division
What’s in ”Investor’s Review"
Israeli Macro Economic Review
Stock markets across the globe
The Green Economy
Select Indices
Closing
value April
26.15
Return
in
April %
YTD
Return
in %
TA 100
1472
3.89
14.23
TA 25
1687
3.82
15.21
DJ
Industrials
18080
1.71
1.44
Nasdaq
Composite
5092
3.9
7.52
Nikkei 225
19963
4.23
14.72
April 27st, 2015
Editing: Smadar Ilan, Head of Business
Development Department
Head Office Of International Operations ,
Finance Division
Tel: 972-76-8859989
fax: 972-77-8959989
Email: smadar.ilan@bankleumi.co.il
The inflation environment remains low; a moderate increase in
inflation is expected in 2015
The March consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.3%. However, over the
last 12 months the index registered a 1% decline (March 2015 compared
to March 2014). Excluding the effect of the housing component, which
is based primarily on housing rental prices, the general index declined
by an even more substantial rate (2%), thus reflecting a very low inflation
environment.
In March substantial price increases occurred in the following components:
the housing component – primarily due to an increase in prices in renewed
housing rental contracts; as well as in transportation and communication
– primarily due to a 6.3% increase in the price of gasoline (against the
backdrop of the rise in global oil prices towards the end of February), and
despite the continued decline in prices of cellular phone services. On the
other hand, a seasonal decline in prices was registered in the clothing and
shoes component.
Looking forward, the annual rate of change in the index, which is currently
in negative territory, is expected to climb gradually (that is to say, to be
less negative). This is due to, among other things, the continuing rise in
housing prices and expectations for a continuing trend of moderation in
the rate of decline of food prices. We estimate inflation in the coming year
will continue to be moderate and below the center of the price stability
target range (1-3%); however, it is not expected to be negative.
Exports were stable in the first quarter of the year, with expectations
for an increase during 2015; the improvement in the core goods trade
account continues
Goods exports amounted to US$12.2bn in the first quarter of the year
(seasonally adjusted; excluding ships, aircraft, and diamonds). This figure
reflects a 2.3% decline (in nominal US dollar terms) compared to the parallel
quarter in 2014. However, it should be noted that the export data from
recent months were revised upwards, and following this revision, exports
remained almost identical in the last two quarters. In our opinion, the
export of goods and services from Israel will increase 4.8% in real (shekel)
terms in 2015, following an estimated 1.1% increase in 2014. This comes
against the backdrop of estimates for a certain increase in international
trade; improvement in the economic situation of some of Israel’s main
export destinations; and in light of our estimates for depreciation in the
shekel vis-à-vis the dollar (the primary trade currency – used in 86% of
transactions last year) during 2015.
Goods imports amounted to US$11.8bn in the first quarter of this year
(seasonally adjusted; excluding ships, aircraft, diamonds, and energy
products) – the lowest figure since the second quarter of 2013. This
represents a 6% decline compared to the parallel period in 2014. In our
opinion, in 2015 there will be a recovery in the import of investment
(continuation on page 4)
Stock markets across the globe
By: Capital Market Research Department, Investment Counselling Division
Most equity markets worldwide have been rallying
in recent months, driven by positive developments
in Europe, solid first quarter earnings reports and
assessments that the US Federal Reserve will postpone
its initial interest-rate hike and that subsequent hikes
will take place at a slower pace than markets had been
expecting. The positive developments in Europe include
economic growth (albeit tepid), a slower pace of decline
in aggregate credit issuance to both corporations and
households (some eurozone countries have even seen an
increase in aggregate credit), and a slight improvement in
the Continent’s labor market. These developments have
led to a leveling out of expected inflation, following an
extended period of declining expected inflation (though
the level has stabilized at a very low rate), in addition to
the stabilization of the euro’s exchange rate against the
dollar (after months of trending lower), a contraction
of yield spreads in European corporate bonds, and the
aforementioned rallies in the Continent’s main equity
markets. Comments by Mario Draghi, president of the
European Central Bank, that the ECB’s quantitative easing
program would persist until eurozone inflation moved up
and stayed up on a sustainable basis, was another factor
contributing to the aforementioned market trends. Greece
is the potential fly in the ointment, given growing concern
that the Greek government will fail to reach agreement
with its creditors to finance an extension of its bailout
program.
In the US, first quarter earnings season has gotten
underway. Analysts are expecting a cumulative 5% decline
in profits from the year earlier period, which would mark
the first time in several years that earnings dropped
rather than rose. But this negative outlook hasn’t cast a
shadow over stock markets, which have been rallying in
recent weeks, and are now approaching record highs. One
potential explanation is that most of the profit shortfall
is confined to the energy sector, owing to the collapse
in oil prices. Another possible reason for the discrepancy
between consensus expectations and the market’s push
higher is that analyst expectations have been consistently
proven overly pessimistic compared to actual results, with
corporate earnings in recent years coming in 3% higher
than average analyst estimates. According to the results
released so far, analysts have once again been too gloomy.
First quarter profits are up by around 7%. That said, only
62 of the components comprising the S&P 500 index have
reported quarterly results to date. And of those, 16 belong
to the financial sector, which has benefited from rallies
in the capital markets and cost reductions stemming
from productivity enhancing measures. Of the financial
companies that have reported so far, Q1 net income is up a
healthy 12% from a year ago. We continue recommending
US financial sector stocks, which should benefit from the
America’s growing economy and the sector’s reasonable
valuations. Moreover, banks are likely to generate higher
profits when interest rates eventually rise.
As to the direction of US interest rates, the outlook for
2
rate increases has changed owing to lackluster US labor
market data and comments from Janet Yellen, the Fed
chairwoman, regarding the slower pace of rate hikes once
the process gets underway. The Fed’s projected rate hike is
one of the threats hanging over global stock markets, and
the less hawkish attitude conveyed by Yellen lowered that
threat, contributing to the markets’ continued rallies.
Emerging-market stock markets are one alternative
(albeit a partial one) to investing in the world’s main
bourses, given that EM markets (where risks are admittedly
higher) are trading at more attractive valuations than their
developed-market counterparts.The reasonable valuations
are the consequence of those markets’ underperformance
over the past three years, stemming from slower economic
growth in a number of key EM economies (China, Brazil,
and Russia), in addition to falling commodity prices.
The Chinese government is persisting in its efforts to
stimulate the local economy. At the beginning of March,
the People’s Bank of China announced it was reducing
the interest rate it pays on deposits by 25 basis points, to
2.5%. The rate on loans was also cut by 25bp, to 5.35%.
On February 4th, the PBOC also lowered, for the first time
since 2012, the reserves it requires commercial banks to
hold with the central bank. But despite the government’s
efforts, recent data fail to indicate any pickup in economic
growth. In March, China’s trade figures disappointed
markets, as exports fell 14.6% (analysts had been
projecting an 8% rise) and imports dropped more than
consensus expectations. The weak figures led analysts to
predict the government will expand its stimulus efforts.
Assessments that accommodative monetary and fiscal
stimulus measures in the country will continue, in addition
to regulatory changes regarding the investment latitude
for Chinese and foreign investors in China’s equity markets,
sparked sharp rallies in the largest Chinese stocks. The CSI
300 index is up around 30% year to date, despite China’s
flagging economic performance.
Is the dollar’s uptrend nearing its end?
The dollar has slipped against its major rivals in recent days,
and stabilized globally over the past month, following
its 25% surge since June of last year, as measured by
the DXY dollar index, made up of a basket of six major
currencies. The dollar’s stabilization may be a sign that
the currency’s appreciation against rivals is nearing its
end. This assessment is based on a confluence of factors:
(1) A slowdown in the pace of US economic growth, as
reflected in weak exports stemming from the dollar’s rise;
(2) expectations that core inflation in the US is set to slip in
coming months, thanks in part to falling import prices; (3)
stepped up economic growth outside the US, particularly
in Europe; and (4) the fact that most forecasters across the
globe expect the dollar to continue climbing.
Taken together, these factors could induce US policy
makers to attempt to halt the dollar’s advance. But for the
meantime, we aren’t recommending that investors reduce
their exposure to overseas financial holdings.
2 ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI UK PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
The Green Economy
After several years of mismanaging the environment, humanity
has finally come to understand that dealing responsibly with the
environment, far from being detrimental to economic growth,
is actually a boon. A report recently issued by the OECD points
out that while the imposition of more stringent demands and
heightened standards for managing a green environment
raises costs over the short term, the process is likely to generate
significant profits for sectors and individual companies over the
medium and longer term.
The fundamentals of the green economy have affected several
areas, including the construction industry, agriculture, energy,
drinking water, natural gas development, and water fluorination.
The principles of recycling have been increasingly affecting the
products we use at home and work. Moreover, the green car has
continued to gain traction, having attracted the lion’s share of
public attention in terms of green environment issues.
Hybrid vehicles leading the way
As of the end of 2014, over 700,000 electric vehicles were in use
across the globe—i.e., 0.06% of all vehicles on the road. Norway
is the leader in this area, with the level of electric-car use having
reached around 13% of total vehicle use. Hybrid cars, in contrast,
have gained far wider acceptance, with around 4 million
currently in use in America, which is ranked No 2 after Japan,
where, surprisingly, the number of refueling stations for electric
cars currently exceeds the number of regular filling stations (i.e.,
those offering gasoline and diesel).
The leading car manufacturers that dominate the family and small
car categories are already selling more advanced generations of
hybrid cars. In recent years, these manufacturers have seen their
ranks expand to include luxury car brands, such as Lexus, BMW,
Infiniti, and Mercedes Benz, which have added hybrid cars to
their product lines. Even the manufacturers of sports cars, like
Ferrari and Lamborghini, are now selling hybrid versions of their
exclusive models, offering top-performance cars.
Government encouragement
The encouragement of governments worldwide to launch green
ventures, including the increased use of green cars (electric,
though mainly hybrid) is indicative of the top priority being
accorded green-car production in the world economy.
At the beginning of the month, the French government started
offering an impressive €10,000 to anyone abandoning their
old diesel-fueled vehicles for electric cars, and €6,500 to those
trading in an old standard car for a hybrid variety. This dramatic
shift by the leading European car-manufacturing country was
promoted by French auto manufacturer Peugeot Citroen. In 2015,
the French government discontinued its tax-incentive program
that encouraged the purchase of diesel rather than gasolinefueled vehicles. But given that around 80% of French drivers still
own diesel-powered cars, the conversion to green cars will be a
long, ongoing process. The French auto industry already offers
clean, low emission diesel engines, and the government has also
announced a long-term project aimed at converting the French
postal service’s entire fleet to green vehicles.
Meanwhile, the city of Chicago has begun using electric garbage
trucks, after a study indicated electric trucks are more cost-effective
than hybrid or natural-gas-powered trucks. Chicago already has
20 electric garbage trucks in use, each of which generates annual
cost savings an estimated $11,000. Hybrid trucks are already
a common sight in many major cities, primarily in Japan, and
PRIVATE BANKING Issue No. 124 May 2015
comprise an ever-growing percentage of the small and mid-sized
delivery vehicles on the road. Electric and hybrid taxis are also
becoming part of the urban landscape across the world.
In the US, a hybrid airplane that uses 30% less fuel conducted
its first flight at the beginning of 2015. Given that there isn’t
sufficient electricity for the plane’s takeoff phase, an electric
battery goes into effect only once the flight is underway. And if
the hybrid technology is good enough for places, why not hybrid
cruise ships? (Actually, they already exist.)
And what about Israel?
According to the Global Green Economy Index, Israel is ranked
No. 24 out of the 60 nations in the index, which is weighted
by the various categories within the green economy, of which
motor vehicles is one. Around NIS 40 million a year has been
budgeted in the framework of 20% to 30% tax incentives for the
owners of hybrid vehicles. And, in fact, the number of hybridvehicle imports grew in 2014by around 50%.
The local authorities recently decided to abandon the existing
method for measuring hybrid vehicle emissions, which was
based on the strict European standards, in favor of the American
standard. The decision is expected to result in a purchase-tax
reduction of around 50% for all hybrid models imported from
the US.
In October 2014, an inter-ministerial commission dealing with
domestic issues authorized a wide-ranging program aimed at
converting the existing railroad network to an electricity-powered
system in a project with an estimated cost of NIS 12 billion. It’s
fair to assume that several additional government initiatives will
be launched in the future aimed at the ‘electrification’ of Israel.
The green revolution in the global auto industry doesn’t merely
involve the traditional focus on emissions reduction. The use of
green cars, which reduces the consumption of non-renewable
energy sources, are manufactured for the most part in accordance
with recycling principles, using recycled materials adapted to
current environmental conditions. But a general decline in the
use of vehicles of all kinds is possible at some future date, owing
to the development of information technologies that could
reduce man’s need to travel by car.
For a list of sources that went into the preparation of this article,
see: http://bit.ly/rmmc-GreenEconomy.
And what about Leumi? By Hadas Eitan, head of corporate
social responsibility at Leumi’s training division
As part of Leumi’s broader social responsibility activities, the
bank invests considerable resources aimed at reducing Leumi’s
environmental footprint by developing products and tools
designed to further the green economy.
In recent years, Leumi has significantly reduced its carbon
footprint, promoted green construction in its own buildings
and branches, introduced energy-saving measures, reduced
its use of paper, developed environmental products, issued
loans aimed at upgrading the green profile of businesses,
financed solar projects, provided financing for environmental
infrastructure projects, and extended loans to factories with the
aim of converting them to natural-gas use.
Due to these ongoing activities in the area of environmental
protection, Leumi was awarded a Green Label by the Standards
Institute of Israel. Leumi was the first financial company, and one of
the first corporations of any sort in the country, to receive this label.
For additional information, see: www.leumi.co.il.
3
(continuation from page 1)
LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING
CENTERS IN ISRAEL
PRIVATE BANKING FOR ISRAELI RESIDENTS
products and raw materials for the purpose of investments in construction and
TEL AVIV - Tel: 972-76-8668699
in the industrial sectors.
HAIFA - Tel: 972-76-8668599
The sharp decline in imports, alongside the stability in exports, led to a continued
trend of improvement in Israel’s trade account. Thus, in the first quarter of 2015
HERZLIYA - Tel: 972-76-8668899
a US$315m surplus was measured in the core trade account (excluding ships,
JERUSALEM - Tel: 972-76-8678066
aircraft, diamonds, and fuel) – the highest figure since the third quarter of 2010.
PRIVATE BANKING FOR FOREIGN RESIDENTS
Against this backdrop, the trade deficit is likely to decline in 2015 due to a
higher rate of growth of exports over that of imports. The decline in the deficit
TEL AVIV - Tel: 076-866-0600, 076-867-1899
will contribute to the maintaining of a high surplus in the current account of the
JERUSALEM - Tel: 972-76-8678066
balance of payments, which represents a fundamental factor that contributes
exports over that of imports. The decline in the deficit will contribute to the
to stability of the shekel.
maintaining of a high surplus in the current account of the balance of payments,
The contents of this review, including
which represents a fundamental factor that contributes to stability of the shekel. Disclaimer:
the data, information, estimations, opinions and
A peak in the sale of new housing units in the beginning of 2015; demand
forecasts (the "Information") was prepared in
relianceis
upon general information known to the
to remain
in housing
the short-term
Ais expected
peak in the
sale ofhigh
new
units in the beginning of 2015; demand
public and / or information received, wholly or
expected
to remain
in new
the short-term
In February
this yearhigh
2,414
housing units were sold in the private and
partially, from third parties ("Information Providers")
is provided solely as general information. The
In
February
year 2,414
new housing
were
in the
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public
public
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(seasonally
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This levelunits
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for your independent discretion, or as an offer
since September
last year.
sales
reflectstrend
an annualized
sales September
or solicitation,
or advice whether general or as it
last year. February’s sales figure reflects an annualized sales rate of 29,000
new
rate of 29,000 new housing units (see accompanying chart) – representing a
pertains to your data and special needs, regarding
housing units (see accompanying chart) – representing a 20% increase compared
to
the acquisition
or execution of investments and/or
20% increase compared to February 2014. Volatility in housing sales may be an
other transactions or dealings whatsoever.
February 2014. Volatility in housing sales may be an indication of a lack ofany
clear,
It is hereby clarified, that Information regarding
indication
of a lack
of clear,
national
policy in the realm of housing.
credible
national
policy
in credible
the realm
of housing.
investment counseling services and securities
trading services, are not directed towards nor are
they offered in the U.S. or to U.S. Persons as defined
in Regulation "S" of the U.S. Securities Act.
Please note, Leumi has not carried out any
Seasonally adjusted data, Annualized
independent reviews for purposes of verifying
30,000
the Information supplied by the Information
Providers. You should take into account that the
28,000
Information is subject to change from time to time
and is provided "As Is". The Information may contain
Yearly Average Sales
mistakes and may be given to modification after it
26,000
of New Housing Units
has been published including as a result of market
over 2013-2014
changes. Furthermore, since the estimations
24,000
and forecasts in general and regarding shares
especially, by their nature, involve uncertainty and
22,000
risks of error, substantial errors may be discovered
between the estimations and forecasts expressed
in the framework of the Information and the actual
20,000
results. Leumi has no obligation whatsoever, to
provide any notification whatsoever regarding the
18,000
aforementioned changes and / or to update the
Information in advance or retroactively.
16,000
The products appearing in this review are
presented solely in a general manner and are
intended for Leumi customers exclusively. The
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06-13
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conditions that shall be agreed upon with each
customer, according to the discretion of Leumi.
to investing in any product whatsoever, it is
Housing sales increased by a substantial rate (23%) in the first two months Prior
of this
recommended
that all necessary evaluations be
year
compared
to the parallel
period of last
also
compared
to previous
years. including examination of the issue
performed,
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sales increased
by a substantial
rate year,
(23%)and
in the
first
two months
of
regarding
This
increase
in housing
beingofexpressed
in a also
notable
improvement
in theappropriateness of the product to fit your
this year
compared
to thedemand
parallel is
period
last year, and
compared
to
needs, the possible profitability and rate thereof
indices on the activity of construction companies, as arises from the business
and the possibility of alternative investments.
previous years. This increase in housing demand is being expressed in a notable
is permitted to change products or to
tendency survey of the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The most recent Leumi
figure
cease selling them completely, according to its
improvement
in
the
indices
on
the
activity
of
construction
companies,
as
arises
published (March 2015) is the highest since January 2013, and indicates a substantial
discretion.The Leumi Group and/or the controlling
from the business
tendency
survey
the Central
Bureau
Statistics
(CBS). The
parties and or interest holders as the case may be,
improvement
in all
the indices
of of
activity
and also
in of
the
expectations
for the coming
may have an interest in the Information from time
most recent
(Marchdemand,
2015) is the
highestmonths
since January
2013,
months.
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to thepublished
rise in housing
in recent
there has
been a decline
to time, including in financial assets, securities and
and
indicates
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and also
in the current
in
the
numbera of
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(the
number
of months
until
Provident Funds (the "Financial Assets") presented
such framework, and they may, according
the expectations
for thenew
coming
months.
to private
the rise sector
in housing
demand,based within
inventory
of available
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units Due
in the
is depleted,
on the
to their discretion, hold, buy or sell the various
current
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which
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9.8number
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close to
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in recentsales
months
there
has been
a decline
in the
of the
housing
Information framework. In this review publications
upward
pricing
pressures
are renewed.
supply (the
number
of months
until the current inventory of available new
may appear regarding structured deposits.
housing units in the private sector is depleted, based on the current sales rate),
Concerning structured deposits, the Bank deals with
Looking
forward,
estimate
activity
inrange
the coming
continuemarketing
to be investments, has an interest in relation
which stands
todaywe
at 9.8
monthsthat
– close
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in whichmonths
upwardwill
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such deposits and has a financial interest in the
characterized by a high level of uncertainty, since it is difficult to predict to
which
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pressures are renewed.
housing reforms the upcoming government, when it will be formed, will succeed
depositsto
will be given priority over similar products
Looking
forward,
we
estimate
that
activity
in
the
coming
months
will
continue
withwill
respect to their suitability for customers. It
advance. Furthermore, we estimate that the upward trend in housing demand
is further clarified that structured deposits are
to be characterized
a highmonths
level of (due
uncertainty,
since
it is difficult
to predict
continue
during the by
coming
to, among
other
things, compensation
for
the
defined
as transactions entailing a special risk.The
which housing reforms the upcoming government, when it will be formed,
Information may be protected by copyright laws
in
Israel
or abroad and/ or include confidential
will succeed to advance. Furthermore, we estimate that the upward trend in
details. The Information may not be used in a
housing demand will continue during the coming months (due to, among
manner which infringes upon such copyright and
it is forbidden to copy, modify, distribute or make
other things, compensation for the decline in activity that occurred in part from
any commercial use of the Information or any part
thereof. Any distribution or copying of this review
2014, and against the backdrop of the historical low of the interest rate), which
is strictly forbidden. If you received this review in
is expected to lead to an additional increase in the prices of new housing units
error, you are requested to notify us by phone or
e-mail and to delete this review immediately.
in 2015.
New housing units sold (private and public initiative)
4
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