Israel Macro Economic Review

‫מודפס גם בעברית‬
Issue No. 125
June 2015
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI UK PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
Israel Macro Economic Review
By: Yaniv Bar, Economic Department, Finance Division
What’s in ”Investor’s Review"
Israeli Macro Economic Review
When Bond Yields Spike
Advertising’s New Brain
Select Indices
Closing
value
May 31
Return
in
May %
YTD
Return
in %
TA 100
1472
3.89
14.23
TA 25
1687
3.82
15.21
DJ
Industrials
18080
1.71
1.44
Nasdaq
Composite
5092
3.9
7.52
Nikkei 225
19963
4.23
14.72
May 31st, 2015
Editing: Smadar Ilan, Head of Business
Development Department
Head Office Of International Operations ,
Finance Division
Tel: 972-76-8859989
fax: 972-77-8959989
Email: smadar.ilan@bankleumi.co.il
The Bank of Israel avoided a surprise and kept its interest rate
unchanged at 0.1%
Most forecasters in the financial markets expected the Bank of Israel
(BoI) to leave its June interest rate unchanged at 0.1%, and this is indeed
what occurred. The background factors emphasized by the BoI in its
June interest rate decision include: (a) a slight increase in the “inflation
environment” recently; (b) a mixed picture regarding economic activity,
involving also items that attest to an expansion in activity, particularly
in the area of private consumption; (c) the view that the low economic
growth rate in the US in the first quarter of the year is temporary and
transitory, and that in the remainder of the year growth will return and
will increase, together with an impact on economic growth in Israel and
on the interest rate path in the US; and (d) continued heightened activity
in almost all aspects of the local housing market. Furthermore, the BoI
noted that the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was taken
despite the appreciation of the shekel vis-à-vis the currency basket since
the meeting of the Monetary Committee at the end of April.
Looking forward, we believe there is still a possibility for an interest
rate cut to 0% in the coming months, with the necessary background
conditions for such a move likely to include a number of surprises
on the down-side in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) and an
additional appreciation of the shekel vis-à-vis the currency basket. An
interest rate hike in Israel, apparently only towards the end of 2015,
will be dependent on the interest rate path in the US – as a rate hike is
advanced there, then a change in the trend can be expected also in the
local interest rate.
The near-zero local interest rate reflects a negative real short-term interest
rate, and as such contributes to a situation of “asset price inflation”. The
consequences of expansionary monetary policy, with a global emphasis,
were discussed also in the lecture of Prof. Stanley Fischer at the University
of Tel Aviv on May 26th.
Prof. Fischer also mentioned in his written speech that the Fed is
making great efforts to communicate its intentions regarding the
path of monetary policy normalization, this with the purpose of
minimizing volatility in the markets due to its large influence over
them.
However, caution must be taken regarding countries that are relatively
unstable, with weak macro-economic underpinnings. For these
countries the normalization of monetary policy in the US, headed by a
return to a “normal” interest rate, is likely to lead to “bumpiness” along
the path; and therefore, the Fed has a heavy global responsibility
during this process to attempt to reduce the degree of uncertainty,
and thus clear description of its future plans is required.
(continuation on page 4)
When Bond Yields Spike
By: Capital Market Research Department, Investment Counselling Division
Investors get a taste of what happens when bond
yields spike
The subdued global interest-rate environment is the main
risk for investor portfolios, primarily because a rise in yields
(either gradual or sudden) over the next few years could
result in extremely low returns, or even losses, across
the varied asset classes. The potentially most vulnerable
asset class in our recommended portfolio is equities. As
to bonds, the allocation to medium-duration government
debt will eventually offset losses stemming from rising
yields, as the portfolio’s average maturity shortens over
time. At the end of April and beginning of May, investors
got a taste of the potential impact of a yield spike on
investment portfolios. Within two weeks, the yield on 10year German bunds rose from 0.1% to 0.7%, from 1.9%
to 2.2% on equivalent Treasuries, and yields on 10-year
Israeli fixed-rate government debt rose from 1.4% to 1.8%.
Over the same timeframe, the price of corporate bonds
responded globally in almost identical fashion, even as
spreads remained largely unchanged across most credit
ratings. The LQD exchange traded fund, which focuses on
US investment-grade corporate bonds, lost around 3% of
its value during this period, similar to the declines in 8-year
government bond durations (the same average duration
bonds tracked by LQD). In contrast, the MSCI World equities
index slipped 2%, while in Israel, share indices fell more
sharply than the major Tel Bond indices, possibly because
of the sharp stock rally that preceded the falls. In the days
immediately after the two-week stumble, when markets
calmed down and bond yields edged lower, shares rose
more sharply than bond prices.
That two-week period of rising yields should serve as an
indication to investors as to the sensitivity of their portfolios
to duration risk. Investors who were rattled by how sharply
the value of their bond holdings fell when yields spiked,
should consider reducing the level of their holdings’
duration risk, either by reducing exposure to bonds, or
shortening their average their average duration. In coming
years, there could well be periods of even greater volatility
on long-dated bonds.
of May, despite the rise in bond yields that put the price
of risk assets under pressure globally, the dollar failed to
strengthen (the dollar only appreciated globally in the
second half of May, driven by strong US macroeconomic
news releases). This phenomenon was surprising because
a rise in market jitters generally leads to falling risk-asset
prices and global dollar strength. The explanation for the
dollar’s surprising behavior may have been that Europe
was the primary trigger setting off the yield spike. In any
event, the development indicates that portfolio exposure
to the dollar doesn’t always offset across-the-board falls
in risk assets and that holding dollars offers nothing but
partial insurance for investment portfolios.
We believe the three factors summarized below argue in
favor of gaining exposure to this asset class at present.
1. T he growth rates in the US are expected to remain
positive in coming months, based on current trends
in the data. In consequence, default rates in the two
countries aren’t expected to rise significantly, with the
possible exception of bonds in the US energy sector.
2. T he main risk hanging over all risk assets is rising interest
rates, which would hit medium- and long-dated bonds
as well as equities. Short-dated high-yield bonds can
be expected to generate relatively solid returns as long
as interest-rate hikes (if they occur) are gradual and
measured, and economic growth trends don’t take a
turn for the worse.
3. A
nother potential scenario is that in coming months we’ll
be witness to stable stock and government bond prices.
Given such a backdrop, the ongoing returns generated
by short-dated high-yield corporate bonds could prove
to be superior to other risk assets.
That said, we should emphasize: these investments are
characterized by high risk.
Another phenomenon that accompanied the spike in
yields was the rise in inflation expectations in the US and
Europe, as reflected in the two countries’ bond markets.
Inflation expectations could end up being one of the
main accelerators (or decelerators) affecting the timing of
a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. An additional factor,
which receives almost no mention from the Fed, is the
dollar’s exchange rate. A strong dollar could significantly
reduce the pace of US interest-rate hikes. At the beginning
2
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
Advertising’s New Brain
Internet users don’t like ads, and have two main ways
of ignoring them. The first and most common is ‘banner
blindness.’ The second is the use of tools designed to
block ads, of which the most popular is AdBlock. In 2014,
the use of ad blocks surged by 70% to almost 200 million
users.
According to a forecast for 2015 published by Strategy
Analytics, a consulting and research firm, the United
Kingdom will be the first country in which digital
advertising exceeds 50% of all other forms of advertising.
The 2015 forecast for the US is 28%, for Western Europe
34%, and for the world as a whole 30%.
The rest of the advertising mix will include television
and other formats, such as radio, print, and outdoor
adverts. A growing percentage of digital advertising
is being managed by algorithms—i.e., programmatic
advertising.
The programmatic advertising revolution is being
brought about, unsurprisingly, by Google, with its
AdWords and AdSense platforms, which have changed
the face of advertising forever. Google’s platforms
enable the display of marketing messages and ads using
dynamic data about each specific user based on search
patterns and website preferences, charging advertisers
on a per-click basis. We’re all familiar with ads displayed
with search results. At the same time, Google aggregates
data about the behavior of users, enabling the company
to improve the accuracy and quality of its new advertising
tools. AdWords was launched in 2000 and quickly became
the dominant player in the advertising field. Google in
now the world’s No. 1 advertising firm.
Two of the new and most prominent in the programmatic
advertising segment are companies founded by Israeli
entrepreneurs. They’ve already gone international,
having set up head offices in New York. The two are
Outbrain, founded by the startup veteran Yaron Galai,
and Taboola, established by Adam Singolda, a young
new startup whiz.
Outbrain started its operations in 2006, with Taboola
coming later. Both have millions of users globally (550
million and 400 million, respectively), and both use smart
platforms that analyze aggregated and ‘live’ data, in
order to provide choices to online users. Advertisers pay
on a per-click basis. Both companies are leaders in the
content recommendation category. Neither describes
itself as an advertising platform.
Outbrain, Taboola, and other content-recommendation
firms offer advertisers solutions for new demands
stemming from the widespread transition to content
marketing. In the digital age, advertisers have become
publishers, creating and distributing content, nonstop
PRIVATE BANKING Issue No. 125 June 2015
and through varied media, including websites, blogs, and
Facebook, amongst others. Content recommendation is
a tool enabling advertisers to gain exposure to varied
media, such as news websites, integrating their ads with
content. Sophisticated algorithms, which continually
become smarter by gathering and analyzing data in real
time, stimulating user interest, thereby increasing the
odds of garnering clicks. The ads look like part of a page’s
content, and the objective of gaining users’ clicks isn’t to
direct them to an ad, but to potentially valuable content,
such as an article or survey.
In practice, the platforms try to predict the next moves
of online users before they’re aware of them themselves.
This may sound odd, but its how the technology works.
Giant databases with information about the behavior
of online users, in addition to dynamic algorithms, are
capable of predicting what the users’ interests and
focuses are, and to provide them with appropriate
content.
And that’s what they promise advertisers, who pay on
a per-click basis. To understand the amount of data
that enable this ambitious promise, you have to realize
that Outbrain is linked to more than 100,000 websites,
employing around 50 algorithms. In short, big data is
involved.
Content recommendations existed before the two Israeli
companies came on the scene, but were contextual,
based on subjects or key words defined in advance,
or on popularity. The innovative aspect of the new
advanced platforms is their simplicity. They just add
additional categories, such as involvement, discussions,
online patterns (the user’s typical online behavior)
amongst other factors, using technologies that enable
the processing of relevant information in real time. In
consequence, recommendations are tailored to the
individual preferences of each user.
But people, as a rule, don’t like advertising. Therefore,
the key to success—and developers and innovative
platform managers readily admit this—is not to offer
ads, but content. What they provide doesn’t look like
an ad or behave like an ad, even though a large part
of the operations of Outbrain and Taboola is paid for
by advertisers (the other part is conducted for media
outlets that use platforms promoting systematic content
and increase traffic within the medium). This isn’t only
a matter of disguise or cosmetics. The successful use of
these platforms involves creating high-quality content
that interests and proves valuable to users. The success
of these platforms depends on content quality, which is
the key to generating clicks.
Sources: http://bit.ly/rmmc-rogrammaticAdvertising
3
(continuation from page 1)
LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING
CENTERS IN ISRAEL
Despite moderate economic growth in the first quarter of the year,
business sector activity remained strong
Initial estimates of Israeli economic activity in the first quarter of 2015 show that
GDP increased 2.5% compared to the fourth quarter of last year (in annualized
terms, seasonally adjusted data). This is a low growth rate compared to the
average in recent quarters, and even low from a long-term perspective.
The business sector product, which does not include the contribution of
government expenditure to GDP, nor the contribution of a number of additional
small components, increased by an annual 3.2% rate. This is the highest
quarterly rate of growth since the second quarter of 2013 (except for the fourth
quarter of last year) and similar to the average quarterly growth rate over the
last three years, attesting to the resilience of the business sector.
PRIVATE BANKING FOR ISRAELI RESIDENTS
The GDP growth rate is expected to accelerate in 2015; private
consumption is expected to continue to support local economic activity
Examination of the GDP components from the first quarter of the year indicates
an expansion in most GDP components (led by private consumption and
exports), albeit by a more moderate rate compared to the fourth quarter of last
year, which was especially strong. This is because the fourth quarter of last year
was actually a “correction” to the near-zero GDP growth in the third quarter of
2014, which stemmed from, for the most part, Operation Protective Edge.
The private consumption component increased 5.5% in the first quarter of this
year compared to the preceding quarter, in continuation of the relatively strong
trend in the preceding three quarters. Overall, private consumption increased
5.9% in the full year ending in the first quarter of 2015. This figure reflects a
rapid 3.8% rate of growth in private consumption per capita during the last
four quarters. Among the uses of economy resources components, the private
consumption component represented the largest contribution to GDP, and
also indirectly affected other components of economic growth, thus showing
its very strong importance to real activity in the Israeli economy, similar to the
case in the rest of the world.
Looking forward, we estimate real economic activity in the coming quarters will
increase by a similar rate (and perhaps even more rapidly), such that overall in
2015 the economic growth rate will accelerate to 3.5%, against the backdrop
of the expected acceleration in exports and in investments in fixed assets.
Furthermore, we note the strong contribution to the GDP growth forecast
stemming from the expansion in private consumption.
However, in the coming years the potential for a substantial acceleration of Israel
growth is limited in light of the fact that some European countries, and also
the US, all of which have a significant impact on Israeli exports. Therefore, the
growth rate in Israel is expected to be lower than prior to the global economic
crisis of 2008-2009.
A slight increase in the inflation environment following the April CPI
figure; inflation is expected to exit negative territory towards the end of
the year
The April consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.6%, and contributed to a
moderate rise in the inflation environment. Over the last 12 months the CPI
declined 0.5% (April 2015 compared to April 2014), reflecting a slight change
compared to the preceding month (a 1% decline). However, excluding the
impact of the housing component, which is based for the most part on housing
rental prices, the CPI declined by a more substantial rate (1.3%). That is to say,
the inflation environment remains low.
Looking forward, the annual rate of change in the CPI (which is currently in
negative territory) is expected to continue to climb gradually (that is to say, to
be less negative), and to enter positive territory towards the end of the year.
This is due to, among other things, the continuing increase in housing prices
and expectations for a continuation in the trend of moderation in the food
prices decline rate. We estimate that inflation in the coming year will continue
to be moderate, and below the center of the price stability target range (1-3%);
however, it is not expected to be negative.
4
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
TEL AVIV - Tel: 972-76-8668699
HAIFA - Tel: 972-76-8668599
HERZLIYA - Tel: 972-76-8668899
JERUSALEM - Tel: 972-76-8678066
PRIVATE BANKING FOR FOREIGN RESIDENTS
TEL AVIV - Tel: 076-866-0600, 076-867-1899
JERUSALEM - Tel: 972-76-8678066
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