Weekly Technical

Weekly Technical
December 29, 2014
Index to challenge life-time highs post base formation in coming weeks…
Domestic Indices
Index
Current
CNX Nifty
S&P BSE Sensex
Nifty Future
S&P BSE 500
S&P BSE Midcap
S&P BSE Small cap
8200.70
27241.78
8273.75
10562.71
10115.85
10894.89
Previous Change%
8225.20
27371.84
8239.85
10560.47
10000.41
10922.21
-0.30
-0.48
0.41
0.02
1.15
-0.25
Global Indices Weekly Performance
China
3,157.6
1.6%
Germany
9,922.1
1.4%
France
4,295.9
1.3%
Japan
17,819.0
1.1%
Hong Kong
23,349.3
1.0%
Brazil
50,144.6
1.0%
UK
6,609.9
1.0%
US
2,088.8
0.9%
Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
-2.9
-2.9
-3.7
LT
HINDALCO
3.3
BHEL
4.2
BHARTIARTL
9.0
ULTRACEMCO
% Change
11.50
JINDALSTEL
-5.50
Technical Picks for the Week
1. Buy Corporation Bank (in cash) in range of | 320.00
– 326.00, Target | 390.00, Stop loss | 298.00 (Call
has been initiated on I Click-2-Gain on December 26,
2014 at 11:25)
2. Buy Garware Wall Ropes (in cash) in range of
| 180.00 – 186.00, Target | 235.00, Stop loss |
160.00 (Call has been initiated on I Click-2-Gain on
December 26, 2014 at 12:38)
The week that was
• Benchmark indices retreated from two-week highs amid profit bookings in the truncated derivatives expiry week. The BSE
Sensex shed 130 points or 0.48% to end at 27241 while the NSE Nifty was down 24 points or 0.30% to 8200. Broader
markets outperformed the benchmarks as BSE midcap index gained 1.15% while the small cap index was down just 0.25%
• The Nifty began the week on a firm note and went on to make a high of 8364 on Tuesday before succumbing to profit
bookings at higher levels. It pared all gains to close marginally in the red. Banking, auto and realty indices posted decent
gains while IT, oil & gas and capital goods indices were the major draggers losing over 1% each
• The weekly price action formed a High wave, a small bodied bear candle with long upper wick and small lower shadow
highlighting indecision after a strong recovery from the previous week’s low of 7961. It maintains a higher high higher low as
compared to the previous week suggesting a healthy breather after a rally of over 400 points
Week ahead
• We expect the index to remain in consolidation mode and undergo a base formation in the coming week amid muted global
cues owing to year-end holidays. The overall bias remains positive and the index is expected to resolve higher to challenge
the recent life-time high of 8626 in the short-term. Any dips towards the 8150-8120 region should be used as a buying
opportunity
• The Nifty retraced its December fall (8626 to 7961) by 61.8% at last week’s high of 8364 precisely in line with our expectation
and, thereafter, entered a corrective mode. The sharp bounce back of over 400 points from recent low of 7961 led the
intraday oscillator into overbought territory resulting in a cool-off in the last three sessions. The two consecutive bullish gaps
formed during previous week’s rally signal resumption of bullish momentum. The index is seen holding the previous Friday’s
bullish gap area (8159) over the last two sessions despite high volatility suggesting buying support near the gap area
• Over the last two sessions, the broader markets as represented by the midcap and small-cap indices have outperformed the
benchmark, which is also reflected in the flat to positive market breadth. It highlights the prevailing buoyancy in broader
markets while the recently run-up large caps take a breather. Therefore, a basing formation in the coming weeks will help the
benchmarks work off the short-term overbought conditions and lay the foundation for an eventual lift-off towards the recent
life high of 8626
• The two back to back bullish gaps formed during current pullback are placed around 8159 and 8082 regions. The bullish gaps
formed after a sizable correction reflect the change of sentiment and indicate bulls taking charge of the short-term trend. The
index is already seen taking support at the second bullish gap area formed in previous Friday’s session near 8159. We
believe a re-visit to these bullish gaps is bound to attract fresh buying support and should be used as an entry opportunity to
ride the expected up-move towards 8626 in the short-term
• Among weekly oscillators, the 14 week RSI has cooled off from its recent overbought readings of 75 odd levels and is now
poised at its October 2014 trough of 65 from where it had staged a steady recovery. The oscillator forming a double bottom
while price makes a higher bottom highlights the overall positive price structure
• For the coming week, the Nifty spot has resistance at 8290, 8375 whereas supports are at 8120, 8050
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Exhibit 1: CNX NSE Nifty – Weekly Candlestick Chart
CNX Nifty Spot
Open
High
Low
Close
8255.00
8364.75
8147.95
8200.70
Nifty took a breather after retracing its December fall by 61.8%
in last weeks trade. Index is expected to undergo a basing
formation in coming weeks before lifting off towards recent
life high of 8626 levels in the short term
8626
61.8%
8180
7723
Index is seen holding above
September high of 8180 on
weekly closing basis despite
high volatility
21 week EMA
Research Analyst
The weekly RSI is poised at its October 2014 low of 65 while prices
have made a higher low indicating strength in the underlying trend
Dharmesh Shah
dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
Nitin Kunte , CMT
nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
Dipesh Dagha
dipesh.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
Pabitro Mukherjee
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
Vinayak Parmar
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Bank Nifty – Index on strong footing, heading towards 19300…
CNX Bank Nifty Futures
Indices
CNX Bank Nifty
Close
18,746.8
Change
75.5
change%
0.40
CNX Bank Nifty Spot Performance
Index
Bank Nifty
Current
18,557.2
Performance in %
1M
3M
6M
2.9 21.3 21.8
12M
63.8
The week that was
• The Bank Nifty made a new life-time high of 18940 in the early part of the week in line with our expectation and, thereafter,
turned choppy amid a broad based profit booking trend over the next few sessions in the truncated derivatives expiry week.
The Bank Nifty January future settled at 18746, up 75 points or 0.40% over the week
• The weekly price action formed a small bull candle, which maintains a positive bias with a higher high and higher low as
compared to the previous week. It signals continuance of upward momentum after the previous week’s bullish hammer
candle signalled an end of the two-week corrective phase
Week ahead
CNX Bank Nifty vs. Nifty
19000
8600
8300
8000
7700
7400
7100
6800
6500
17800
16600
15400
14200
26-Jun
14-Jul
31-Jul
19-Aug
5-Sep
23-Sep
14-Oct
3-Nov
21-Nov
9-Dec
26-Dec
13000
Bank Nifty (RHS)
NSE (LHS)
• The Bank Nifty performed in line with our expectations and went on to make a new life-time high of 18940 ahead of the
benchmarks. The index has displayed resilience during the corrective phase in December 2014 and the revival of sentiment
in the last couple of weeks has seen the index resume its leadership role. We expect the Bank Nifty to remain in a rising
trajectory and head towards 19300 in the short-term. Last week’s low of 18410 will act as an immediate support for the index.
Any cool-off towards the same should be used as a buying opportunity
• The index displayed strength during the corrective phase in the first half of December 2014 as it retraced its preceding rally
by just 38.2% while the benchmark Nifty corrected almost 80% of the respective gains. The rally towards the new life-time
high in last week’s trade has now confirmed a significant higher bottom in place at the December 2014 low of 17600 and
signalled continuance of the uptrend
• We expect the index to continue its uptrend and head towards 19300 in the short-term. The 123.6% retracement of the mid
December fall (18929 to 17600) is placed around 17300 making this the immediate target for the index
• Last week’s low of 18410 is placed at the 38.2% retracement of current pullback from 17600 to 18940. The placement of the
previous two weekly lows near the 18400 region makes this an immediate support area for the index. We expect bulls to hold
fort above 18400 in the coming weeks and embark upon their next up-move towards 19300 in the short-term. Any dips
towards the 18400 region should be used as a buying opportunity
• Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI remains in rising trajectory and has rebounded after taking support at its nine period
average during the mid-December correction highlighting the underlying strength in the trend
• For the coming week, key support for the Bank Nifty futures is at 18550, 18400 while resistance is at 18950, 19300
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 3
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty generic futures
- Weekly Candlestick Chart
Bank Nifty made a new life high ahead of the benchmarks highlighting
strong outperformance and signalling continuation of uptrend after the
mid-December corrective decline. We expect the index to remain in
rising trajectory and head towards 19300 levels in the short term
18929
CNX Bank Nifty Futures
Open
High
Low
Close
18575.00
18940.00
18410.00
18746.80
38.2% @ 17500
15180
21-week EMA
Weekly RSI is seen rebounding after taking support at its 9 period
average highlighting inherent strength in the trend
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4
Trend Scanner
Positive Trends
Candlestick Patterns
Scrip Name
Close
50 days SMA
20-day SMA
5-day SMA
Automotive Axles
754.8
718.7
731.2
725.4
47.80
Scrip Name
Indian Hotel
120.0
109.4
118.0
118.3
70.20
Bullish Engulfing
1,361.9
1,314.7
1,364.3
1,336.3
63.10
Automotive Axles
261.9
245.2
248.0
252.2
40.20
Thermax
Akzo Nobel India
TVS Motors
Delivery % 5 days Averge
Bullish Reversal Pattern
Bearish Reversal Pattern
LTP
Scrip Name
Close
50 days SMA
20-day SMA
5-day SMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
Biocon
417.2
453.1
446.3
425.0
37.80
RCOM
80.5
99.2
91.3
80.8
28.50
754.80
208.75
Bearish contunation pattern
301.50
Biocon
417.20
Exide Industries
176.50
RCOM
80.50
Union Bank
240.90
TVS Motors
261.90
Piercing Line
Akzo Nobel India
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Rallis India
1030.75
Bank of India
Hathway
Note: Positive / Negative Trend stocks are scanned on the basis of mechanical signal.
Stocks which are trading above their 50 day simple moving average (SMA) and where
50 day SMA is rising for at least three sessions are considered in positive trend and
further filtered for a momentum signal of a cross over between 5 and 20 period moving
average. Opposite is true for Negative trending stocks.
LTP
Bearish Engulfing
Bullish contunation pattern
Negative Trends
Scrip Name
349.90
1361.85
Note: For Candlestick pattern description please refer towards
the end of the report.
Page 5
Market Activity
Commodities
Sectoral Indices – Performance (%)
INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods
Current
27241.78
8200.7
18455.13
21253.3
15113.05
1Wk
1M
3M
-0.5
-0.3
0.5
0.5
-1.8
-5.2
-4.8
-3.9
0.1
-7.9
1.7
2.1
3.4
17.9
4.4
Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap
9359.5
7686.06
14409.51
10422.16
10562.54
9878.81
2032.64
1533.94
10562.71
10115.85
10894.89
-1.4
-0.3
0.1
-1.3
-0.5
-1.1
0.4
2.4
0.0
1.2
-0.3
-2.5
0.2
-3.9
-7.8
-7.1
-9.6
-6.0
-9.7
-3.3
-1.3
-3.8
-2.1
0.3
5.4
-1.2
-10.4
-9.0
0.1
-7.6
3.2
5.2
0.9
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Prev. Close
1195.80
1197.33
-0.13
Copper (tonne)
6361
6452.5
-1.42
Brent Crude (brl)
59.98
61.90
-3.10
Gold (ounce)
%Chg
Global Currency
Spot
Close
Prev.close
% Chg
Rupee (|)
63.569
63.300
-0.42
Dollar Index
89.975
89.571
0.45
1.219
1.224
-0.42
Euro
British Pound
1.557
1.5631
-0.39
Japanese Yen
120.580
119.420
-0.97
Australian ($)
0.8123
0.8145
-0.27
0.987
0.983
-0.42
Swiss Franc
Global Treasury Yields
Institutional Activity
FII
Previous Week
-3548
MTD
-1872
Oct to Dec quarter
10709
YTD
94146
*Previous week figure are povisional figure
*MTD- Month till date
*YTD- Year till date
in US $
Close
DII
1832
4678
12295
21484
Closing Yield (%)
Previous Yield (%)
India 10 year
7.98
7.96
US 10 Year
EURO 10 Year
2.25
2.15
0.59
0.59
1.88
1.85
0.32
0.34
GBP 10 Year
JPY 10 Year
Page 6
• The share price of Corporation Bank has seen a
strong up move from March 2014 to June 2014
during which the stock price almost doubled
from 220 to 417 levels. The corrective decline
from the higher levels saw the stock retracing
its previous rally by 61.8% and formed a basing
pattern around the curial retracement level thus
providing base for the next up move
 Corporation Bank (CORBAN) CMP – | 330.45
Buying range: | 320.00 – 326.00 Target: | 390.00 Stop loss: | 298.00
Exhibit 3: Corporation Bank – Weekly Candlestick Chart
A positive follow up to the bullish hammer candlestick pattern signals a reversal of
trend and the stock is likely to start a fresh up move and test the 78.2%
retracement of the major decline from 417 to 292 which also coincides with the
falling trendline joining the previous major highs
495
417
• The important observation in the weekly chart
of Corporation Bank is that the formation of
bullish Hammer Candlestick pattern at the
61.8% retracement of the previous up move
from 220 to 417. A hammer candle formed
during a correction near an important support
area highlights the receding downward
momentum and emergence of strong buying
support
78.2% retracement @ 390
61.8% retracement at 290
• A positive follow up to the bullish hammer
candlestick pattern during the previous week
signals a reversal of trend and start of a fresh
up trend thus offering a fresh entry opportunity
to ride the next up move with a favourable risk
reward equation
• The overall technical set-up suggests the stock
is likely to embark upon its next up leg and
retrace its June 2014 - December 2014 decline
(417-283) by at least 78.2%, which projects an
upside towards | 390. This also coincides with
the trendline joining the highs of 2013 (| 495)
and 2014 ( | 417) placed at 490 levels
• Among oscillators, the MACD is sustaining
above the trigger line and is on the verge of
moving above the signal line thus supports the
positive momentum in price
220
Bullish Hammer candlestick pattern at the 61.8%
retracement at the of the major rally from 220 to 417
signalling reversal of trend after recent corrective
price action
MACD is sustaining above the trigger line and is on the verge of moving above the
signal line thus supports the positive momentum in price
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
(Call Initiated on i Click -2-Gain on December 26, 2014 at 11:25)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
• The share price of Garware Wall Ropes is in a
secular uptrend characterised by series of
higher high and higher lows on all time frames
• During Friday’s trade, the stock has given a
breakout above the 13 weeks trading range
(| 187-153) signalling continuation of the
positive trend
• At the October and December 2014 low of
| 153, the stock retraced its preceding up move
(| 137 - 187) by only 61.8%, which also
coincided with the rising 21-week moving
average, that has acted as a key support for the
stock during secondary corrective declines. The
stock is seen breaking out the consolidation
range after forming a decent basing pattern
around the confluence of the key technical
support around | 153 suggesting resumption of
the upward momentum
• Time wise the stock consumed almost double
time (13 weeks) in the consolidation phase
while retracing just 61.8% of the preceding
seven week rally. Larger time consolidation and
limited price correction is the primary indicator
of a healthy corrective action and highlights the
underlying strength in the trend
 Garware Wall Ropes (GARWAL) CMP – | 199.05
Exhibit 4: Garware Wall Ropes – Weekly Bar Chart
The stock during Friday’s trade has given a breakout above the 13 weeks trading range
signalling continuation of the positive trend. The stock is likely to start a fresh up move
and test 235 levels being the 161.8% extensions of the previous up move
187
137
61.8% retracement at 153
The stock formed a basing pattern at the
61.8% retracement of the previous up move
(137-187) and rising 21 weeks EMA
currently placed at 160 levels
Strong volume during price rally and breakout from consolidation range suggests larger
participation in the direction of the trend
• The volume behaviour supports the positive
trend in price as the breakout from the
consolidation range has seen strong volume of
more then four times the 50 weeks average
volume of (1.5 lakh shares per week) signalling
larger participation in the direction of trend
• Going forward, we expect the share price to
test | 235 levels being the 161.8% extensions
of the previous up move from | 137 to | 187 as
projected from recent higher bottom of | 153
Buying range: | 180.00 – 186.00 Target: | 235.00 Stop loss: |160.00
Bullish crossover of the 14 periods RSI above its nine period’s average thus validates positive trend in price
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
(Call Initiated on i Click -2-Gain on December 26, 2014 at 12:38)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 8
Dow Jones (18053)
The US equity benchmarks extended gains to
settle at record life highs in a truncated week. The
Nasdaq index climbed to a 14 year high to end the
year on a positive note. The DJIA settled at
18053, up 249 points or 1.4% for the week.
Global Market
Exhibit 5: Dow Jones Weekly Candlestick Chart
The DJIA closed at record highs indicating continuation of uptrend.
Index is expected to head towards 18344 in the short term while
December lows of 17067 remains a support
17991
17350
The price action formed the bull candle, which
settled near its high. In the process, prices closed
above the rising blue channel that encompassed
the entire price action since mid-2013. It
maintained positive bias with higher high and
higher low
Support @ 17067
15855 @ 61.8%
The DJIA recovered its seven session decline in
flat five sessions, thereby indicating positive price
structure and Dow Theory up trend signal with
rising peak and trough formation.
15341 @ 61.8
14551
December lows at 17067 remains key short-term
support while the index is expected to head
towards 18344 being 138.2% retracement of the
recent decline. (17991-17067)
52-week EMA
RSI inched up however is yet to catch up price and shows early signs of possible negative divergence
The 14 period RSI continues to trend up , however
flags possibility of negative divergence in
momentum with price
For the coming week, the DJIA has support at
17950, 17750 while resistance is placed at
18170, 18350.
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
German Dax (9922)
The Dax inched up in a truncated week to end the
year on a positive note
Exhibit 6: German Dax - Weekly Candlestick Chart
The Dax is expected to challenge its life high in the short term and
head towards 10300 levels.
The price action for the week resulted in a bull
candle with higher high and higher low thereby
maintaining positive bias
Multiple tops @ 10050
After the strong recovery earlier in the week, the
German Dax gained on both sessions in a short
week helped by strength in global markets. We
expect the index to challenge its life-time high at
10093 and head towards 10300 being 123.6%
retracement of recent decline (10093-9219)
9148
52-week EMA
Immediate support for the index is now placed at
December 2014 lows of 9219 levels
8354
Among oscillators, the weekly RSI has reacted
lower below its 9 period average indicating end of
positive momentum and correction decline
For the coming week, the index has support at
9770, 9600 while resistance is at 10090, and
10170
RSI took support at its 9 period average suggesting continuation of positive momentum
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
US$-INR (63.57)
The rupee slipped to fresh yearly low as FIIs
continue to exit equities in a year-end profit
booking mode and US dollar index remain firm
at seven year high against major global
currencies
US$-INR Outlook
Exhibit 7: US$-INR - Weekly Candlestick Chart
The US dollar closed at highest level in a year amid profit booking in equities
and strength in US dollar index against major currencies
The price action, a bull candle that remained
contained within the prior week’s large bull
candle, indicates a slowing down of positive
momentum for US Dollar after strong gains early
during the month
63.30
The US$-INR pair closed firmly above 63 mark
for second week on a closing basis shifting
short term trajectory to 62-64
The strength in greenback is on expected lines
as the entire up move since May 2014 remains
in a well defined rising channel (blue). The
US$INR pair hit the upper band of the channel
during last week. While the bias for the US
dollar remains positive above 62 mark on
immediate basis, we expect US$INR pair to
consolidate in 62-64 range over next few weeks
52 week EMA
Weekly RSI is in rising trajectory highlighting positive momentum for US dollar
The weekly RSI is in rising trajectory and is
seen turning away from its 9 period average
indicating positive bias in the near term
For the coming week, US$INR support is placed
at 63.10, 62.70 whereas resistances are at
63.90, 64.20
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 11
Gold International Spot– ($1196.10)
International gold prices fell to a three-week low
of $1170 at the start of the week amid broad
based dollar strength. The bullion prices recovered
the losses in the last trading session to close
marginally higher at $1196.10 levels
Gold Outlook
Exhibit 8: Gold International (spot) --- Weekly Bar Chart
The gold prices continue to mark time in the broad range of
$1140 to $1230 levels over past seven weeks. We expect
bullion prices to resume downward journey after the current
consolidation and remain on course towards our medium term
target of $1000 levels
The price action for the week formed a long
legged Doji candle signalling indecision at current
levels amid a range bound consolidation since last
seven weeks
The bullion prices are seen marking time between
the broad range of $1140 and $1230 in the last
seven weeks. This seven week consolidation
against one week decline indicates a corrective
consolidation and highlights the underlying
weakness in the trend. The horizontal trendline
placed at $1240 has acted as a stiff resistance in
the recent consolidation. We expect bullion prices
to resume downward journey after the current
consolidation and remain on course towards our
medium term target of $1000 levels
The price equality of the July-October 2014
decline ($1346 to $1183=$163) measured from
the breakdown point of $1180 projects downsides
towards $1014 over the medium term which also
coincides with breakout area of 2010 placed
around $1000 levels
Among oscillators, the weekly stochastic is seen
struggling below its bear market resistance
reading of 70 over the past several weeks
highlighting the underlying weakness in the trend
$1434
$1392
$1346
52-week EMA
$1180
The weekly stochastic is seen struggling below its bear market resistance reading of 70 over the past several weeks
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 12
Brent Crude Futures – ($59.45)
Brent crude extended the decline and closed
lower for a fifth consecutive week as supply glut
and strength in the US$ kept the prices under
pressure. The spot Brent crude prices ended 3%
lower at $59.45 levels
Brent Crude Outlook
Exhibit 9: Brent Crude Futures Continuous --- Weekly Bar Chart
128
The weekly price action formed a sizable bear
candle which maintained a lower high for eighth
consecutive week indicating continuation of the
bearish trend
115
Crude oil prices continue to remain under
tremendous selling pressure defying the record
oversold conditions on the momentum oscillators.
The overall price structure remains weak.
However, after the spate of rapid price decline,
however we expect the crude price to enter a
short term consolidation phase
88.49
Crude prices extended decline for fifth consecutive week. On long term
price charts, the prices are now approaching a major rising support
trendline which is currently placed around $54 levels
On long term price charts, the crude prices are
now approaching a major rising support trendline
which traces its origin way back since 1999. The
value of this trendline over the coming months is
placed around $54 levels, which is expected to
provide some respite to the prices. The placement
of 80% retracement of 2009-10 rally near $54
mark makes this a crucial support level for Brent
crude
In the last 25 odd weeks decline, the crude prices
have not given a close above previous weeks
close barring just one instance. A sustained close
above previous weeks high ($63) would be
required to signal waning downward momentum
MACD remains in sell mode below its trigger line and is seen diverging from its 9 period average highlighting underlying weakness
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 13
Previous Week’s Performance
Date
28-Nov
19-Dec
19-Dec
Scrip
Tata Chemical
JBF Industries
Maruti
Product
Cash
Cash
Cash
Strategy
Buy
Buy
Buy
RP
433.00
249.00
3405.00
Target
485.00
299.00
3940.00
SL
405.00
225.00
3148.00
Gain/Loss %
-3.00
Comment
Open
Exit at 241.50
Open
Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (December 29 – January 02)
Company
NIFTY
SENSEX
ACC
CMP
8200.70
27241.78
1393.50
Pivot
S1
S2
R1
R2
8237.80
8110.85
8021.00
8327.65
8454.60
27394.75
26938.41
26635.03
27698.13
28154.47
1393.67
1376.03
1358.57
1411.13
1428.77
AMBUJACEM
226.05
227.32
222.83
219.62
230.53
235.02
ASIANPAINT
727.05
733.35
715.70
704.35
744.70
762.35
AXISBANK
494.45
495.65
485.30
476.15
504.80
515.15
BAJAJ-AUTO
2480.70
2490.93
2442.87
2405.03
2528.77
2576.83
BANKBARODA
1068.20
1060.22
1040.53
1012.87
1087.88
1107.57
BHARTIARTL
354.30
351.90
346.40
338.50
359.80
365.30
BHEL
251.55
257.10
244.50
237.45
264.15
276.75
BPCL
645.70
645.98
629.47
613.23
662.22
678.73
CAIRN
241.85
243.48
237.17
232.48
248.17
254.48
CIPLA
622.80
623.93
611.42
600.03
635.32
647.83
COALINDIA
378.35
381.75
370.15
361.95
389.95
401.55
DLF
136.20
134.33
131.77
127.33
138.77
141.33
3168.75
3082.50
3030.90
3220.35
3306.60
DRREDDY
GAIL
3134.10
439.88
427.77
417.88
449.77
461.88
GRASIM
3382.25
437.65
3417.38
3319.87
3257.48
3479.77
3577.28
HCLTECH
1564.65
1524.85
1454.80
1344.95
1634.70
1704.75
HDFC
1116.15
1124.75
1083.60
1051.05
1157.30
1198.45
HDFCBANK
948.65
HEROMOTOCO
3096.40
954.57
935.18
921.72
968.03
987.42
3106.60
3051.20
3006.00
3151.80
3207.20
HINDALCO
152.00
153.48
148.12
144.23
157.37
162.73
HINDUNILVR
750.35
755.22
739.63
728.92
765.93
781.52
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 14
Company
CMP
ICICIBANK
350.95
Pivot
353.65
S1
S2
R1
R2
345.40
339.85
359.20
367.45
IDFC
154.65
155.20
151.55
148.45
158.30
161.95
INDUSINDBK
784.45
780.78
767.77
751.08
797.47
810.48
1963.07
1904.23
1856.22
2011.08
2069.92
370.93
363.42
358.88
375.47
382.98
INFY
ITC
1952.25
367.95
JINDALSTEL
149.30
KOTAKBANK
1253.05
146.22
141.53
133.77
153.98
158.67
1253.35
1234.70
1216.35
1271.70
1290.35
LT
1490.20
1501.55
1459.20
1428.20
1532.55
1574.90
LUPIN
1406.95
1420.53
1378.47
1349.98
1449.02
1491.08
M&M
1255.30
1254.83
1225.87
1196.43
1284.27
1313.23
MARUTI
3333.10
3361.03
3298.07
3263.03
3396.07
3459.03
150.90
NMDC
144.50
144.35
141.15
137.80
147.70
NTPC
139.30
139.77
135.68
132.07
143.38
147.47
ONGC
344.45
347.93
337.57
330.68
354.82
365.18
PNB
222.25
222.75
218.50
214.75
226.50
230.75
POWERGRID
137.10
136.98
134.22
131.33
139.87
142.63
RELIANCE
888.85
891.88
876.97
865.08
903.77
918.68
SBIN
307.65
307.83
303.17
298.68
312.32
316.98
SSLT
207.50
208.58
200.37
193.23
215.72
223.93
SUNPHARMA
811.15
811.17
799.98
788.82
822.33
833.52
TATAMOTORS
485.15
488.52
475.58
466.02
498.08
511.02
82.08
79.57
77.98
83.67
86.18
399.32
389.03
379.82
408.53
418.82
TATAPOWER
TATASTEEL
81.15
398.25
TECHM
2566.70
2561.25
2506.55
2446.40
2621.40
2676.10
TCS
2505.00
2502.22
2467.78
2430.57
2539.43
2573.87
ULTRACEMCO
2602.95
2588.33
2512.67
2422.38
2678.62
2754.28
WIPRO
547.40
548.15
539.35
531.30
556.20
565.00
ZEEL
376.90
378.22
372.73
368.57
382.38
387.87
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 15
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Date
US
Event
29-Dec
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
30-Dec
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
30-Dec
Consumer Confidence Index
31-Dec
Initial jobless claims
31-Dec
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
31-Dec
Pending Home Sales MoM
2-Jan
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
2-Jan
Construction Spending MoM
2-Jan
ISM Manufacturing
2-Jan
ISM Prices Paid
India
31-Dec
Bloomberg Dec. India Economic Survey
31-Dec
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
China
31-Dec
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
1-Jan
Manufacturing PMI
3-Jan
Non-manufacturing PMI
UK
30-Dec
Nationwide House PX MoM
2-Jan
Net Consumer Credit
2-Jan
Mortgage Approvals
2-Jan
M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY
2-Jan
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 16
NOTES:
•
Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report
•
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing
basis.
•
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on
remaining position to the entry point
•
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in
prescribed range then the recommendation is considered not initiated.
•
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we
intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail.
Trading Portfolio allocation
•
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical
research products
•
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
•
Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
•
For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal
amount to each recommendation
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 17
Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation
Products
Allocations
Product wise
Max allocation
allocation
in 1 stock
Return Objective
Number of Calls
Frontline Stocks
Mid-cap stocks
Duration
Daily Calls
8%
2-3%
3-4 Stocks
0.50-1%
2-3%
Intraday
Short term Delivery
6%
3-5%
7-10 p.m
4-5%
7-10%
Opportunity based
Weekly Calls
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Weekly Technical
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Monthly Call
15%
5%
2-3 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Monthly Technical
15%
2-4%
5-8 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Techno Funda
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
6 Months
Technical Breakout
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
3-6 Months
Cash in Hand
10%
-
-
-
-
-
100%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 18
Candlesticks Glossary:
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore,
are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in
complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of
the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market
falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern
becomes short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open
but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two
candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the
session’s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of
sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish
trend. The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior
up trend has stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a
white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price
opens over the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should
fall well into the prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a
very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 19
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 20
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
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wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance,
venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other
business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives
from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant
solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written
consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be
regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in
compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report
and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments.
Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed
and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific
recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment
may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual
results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the
past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect
of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the
report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other
benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of
interest at the time of publication of this report.
It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the
preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the
publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies
mentioned in this report.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 21