Opening Bell - Moneycontrol

Opening Bell
December 22, 2014
Market Outlook
• Any sharp dip in the market like the recent correction should be
utilised for building the long term equity portfolio as the medium to
long term outlook remains positive.
Today’s Highlights
UK GDP, Current account balance
Index Movement (past one month)
BSE (RHS)
• Ashok Khemka has sought registration of an FIR after a right to
information (RTI) query by him found two pages of a file on the DLFRobert Vadra deal missing from government records
• To reduce attrition, Infosys plans to change its appraisal practice that
could include feedback from clients, colleagues as well as
subordinates
• Telecom industry body COAI has requested the Department of
Telecom (DoT) to extend the deadline for rollout of 4G services to
2020 citing various hurdles mainly a delay in development of
technology and regulatory procedures
• A special court is expected to pronounce its verdict on Tuesday in
the multi-crore accounting fraud in the erstwhile Satyam Computer
Services (SCSL), capping a nearly six-year trials
• To push through the 10 % sale of MOIL in the current fiscal year, the
government has started the process of appointing merchant bankers
for the disinvestment which could fetch around | 500 crore to the
exchequer
Sensex
Nifty
19-Dec
1-Dec
Key Developments
17-Dec
24000
15-Dec
25000
7800
11-Dec
26000
8000
9-Dec
27000
8200
5-Dec
28000
8400
3-Dec
29000
8600
27-Nov
8800
25-Nov
Markets Yesterday
• Domestic markets rose sharply for a second consecutive session as
investors continued to embrace the Federal Reserve's pledge to be
patient in hiking interest rates and also got a boost after Switzerland's
central bank said it will usher in negative interest rates
• US markets saw some further upsides. The strength on Wall Street
continued to reflect a positive reaction to the Federal Reserve's
monetary policy statement
NSE (LHS)
Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)
27,372 27,127
0.9
-4.6
29.3
17.7
8,159
8,030
1.6
-4.2
30.5
17.6
Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)
CY12
127,481
-56,894
CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days
112,221
100,699
-669
-4,704
-73,464
-32,643
623
3,365
World Indices – Monthly performance
Shanghai
3,109
26.8%
France
4,242
-0.6%
Germany
9,787
3.3%
NSE
8,225
-1.9%
Nikkei
17,603
1.9%
Kospi
1,930
-1.9%
Nasdaq
4,765
1.9%
U.K.
6,545
-2.3%
Dow Jones
17,805
0.7%
BSE
27,372
-2.4%
Nifty Heat Map
Power
Grid
RIL
TCS
HDFC Ltd
NMDC
Ambuja
Cement
GAIL
Sun
Pharma
Cipla
HUL
135.8
3.2%
900.6
2.3%
2,510.6
2.0%
1,115.0
1.5%
140.7
0.9%
225.2
0.5%
435.1
0.3%
807.9
-0.5%
619.0
-1.0%
755.2
-1.4%
Hindalco
Coal India
NTPC
Grasim
Ind
M&M
Axis Bank
Tata
Motors
Lupin
JSPL
Bharti
Airtel
157.8
3.2%
376.0
2.3%
135.5
1.9%
3,375.9
1.4%
1,222.3
0.8%
490.3
0.5%
485.9
0.2%
1,418.1
-0.5%
137.0
-1.2%
343.1
-1.5%
ICICI
Bank
HCL Tech
L&T
ONGC
356.0
3.0%
1,589.2
2.2%
1,535.2
1.9%
349.5
1.3%
HDFC
Bank
941.5
Cairn
India
240.5
BPCL
Maruti
0.8%
0.4%
653.8
0.1%
3,359.4
-0.8%
Bajaj
Auto
2,473.6
Asian
Paints
733.0
-1.2%
-1.6%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Tata
power
Sesa
Sterlite
Infosys
Tech M.
BHEL
United
Spirits
ACC
PNB
Kotak
Bank
ITC
83.4
2.5%
208.3
2.2%
1,998.7
1.7%
2,579.4
1.2%
259.1
0.7%
2,768.8
0.4%
Wipro
Ultratech
Dr Reddy
Tata Steel
IDFC
Hero
Moto
1,380.4 Indusind
Bank
0.0%
224.1
-0.9%
1,236.3
-1.3%
368.8
-1.6%
SBI
Bank of
Baroda
DLF
550.6
2.3%
2,498.4
2.1%
3,199.5
1.5%
405.5
1.0%
155.5
0.6%
3,074.1
0.3%
770.6
-0.4%
304.2
-1.0%
1,040.4
-1.4%
132.0
-2.9%
Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs
Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
27,019
36,265
62.2
6452.5
27,051
36,590
61.4
6362
-0.1
-0.9
1.4
1.4
2.8
1.6
-11.3
0.6
-1.9
-16.5
-43.8
-12.5
63.30
1.22
119.43
63.11
1.22
119.50
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-2.0
-1.7
-0.7
-2.4
-10.9
-11.8
50.7
11.6
41.4
32.1
50.2
52.1
11.7
42.0
32.6
50.3
-2.6
-0.9
-1.5
-1.3
-0.2
-3.3
NA
-11.4
-4.4
-11.6
47.2
NA
34.4
13.5
22.3
Sectoral Index
Sector
3,858
20,021
3,015
16,509
3,693
18,294
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
3,551
18,260
12-Dec
15-Dec
16-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
19-Dec
BSE Cash
NSE Cash
12-Dec
15-Dec
16-Dec
17-Dec
328,560
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
303,486
NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
389,960
Prior Values
4,757.51bln IN
-7.8bln mo
26.1bln $
314.66bln $
5.70%
4.50%
39.4bln $
2.50%
2.50%
-34.6bln $
13.35bln $
2.70%
0.40%
1.77%
2.43%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
401,964
Latest Values
10.1bln mo
25.96bln $
5.30%
4.70%
42.82bln $
-4.20%
-7.60%
38.6bln $
16.86bln $
0.63%
-4.91%
2.04%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
2,924
14,012
Release Date
31-Dec
03~08Dec
10~15Dec
19-Dec
28-Nov
30-May
10~15Dec
12-Dec
12-Dec
03~08Dec
10~15Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
215,422
Period
Nov
Q3
Nov
w/e
Q2
12M
Nov
Oct
Oct
Q3
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
N/A
N/A
N/A
2,976
16,361
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
Key Domestic Economic Indicator
Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
242,100
Key Data Points
18-Dec
19-Dec
NSE Derivative
Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)
Close
Previous
Change
% Change
Volume
Auto
18389.9
18018.1
371.8
2.1
1215000
Banks
20987.4
20478.1
509.3
2.5
5454000
BSE Small Cap
10860.8
10516.1
344.6
3.3
78793000
Capital Goods
15192.8
14782.5
410.3
2.8
5086000
Consumer Durables
9493.1
9019.0
474.1
5.3
705000
FMCG
7781.5
7691.4
90.0
1.2
851000
Healthcare
14385.7
14197.8
187.9
1.3
1452000
IT
10357.9
10246.4
111.5
1.1
653000
Metals
10430.8
10226.7
204.2
2.0
4931000
Mid Cap
9964.7
9706.5
258.2
2.7
59502000
Oil & Gas
9842.1
9683.1
159.0
1.6
2993000
Power
1999.4
1936.3
63.1
3.3
10645000
PSU
8018.1
7834.6
183.5
2.3
17763000
Real Estate
1510.8
1474.4
36.4
2.5
10326000
Banks
FMCG
PSU
Mid Cap
Consumer
Healthcare
IT
Auto
BSE Small
Capital Goods
Metals
Power
Oil & Gas
Real Estate -9.1
-10.0
5.0
-0.3
-1.6
-2.1
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
-3.9
-4.6
-5.3
-5.6
-7.1
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
(%)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Key News for Today
Company/Industry
Bajaj Auto
News
Bajaj Auto has secured an order for 1.25 lakh
units of Discover series from the Sri Lankan
Government. This is in addition to the recent
order for 50,000 units from the same.
View
The Sri Lankan market, which had been
witnessing lot of challenges in the last
year, is now back to normal. This order
highlights the same. This order aids the
company in terms of volume growth in
profitable exports market
Tech Mahindra
TechM plans to expand its global seating
capacity by 30,000 in the next two years, taking
its total seating capacity to 125,000. The
company plans to expand in Hyderabad,
Bengaluru, Pune, Visakhapatnam, Jaipur and
Bhubaneswar
Strong hiring indicates a healthy demand
environment for the company. Though
this could be margin dilutive if utilisation
does not pick up, dollar revenue growth
could likely exceed that of industry
average during FY16E
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Impact
Key News for Today
State Bank of
India
SBI has indicated at plans to unlock the value of This is positive for bank as this can add
subsidiaries by selling shares in subsidiaries
to profits and reserves of the bank as
well boost capital. It stressed particularly
on insurance & credit card companies
and post discussion with partners it said
it will consider a sale
HDFC Bank
HDFC Bank has received FIPB approval to raise | Even if 10% price discount is considered
10000 crore via a rights issue
in rights, we believe the net addition to
networth will add | 16 per share taking
the book value to | 245 for FY15. Also, if
HDFC Ltd does not participate, it can
offer a fresh window for FII investment
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Sensex Chart
Technical Outlook
We said, "Bias positive ... watch for volatility if
initial gains fail to hold..." The index opened
166-point gap-up. However, up 368 points at
10:22 am, it did turn volatile but still finished
245 points or 0.9% higher. Sectors that led the
fall, e.g. IT, metals, oil & gas, capital goods and
power added 1-2% while FMCG, realty and
PSU banks lost about 1%. The A/D ratio ended
flat.
The action formed a small Bull candle with
111-point gap-area below its bottom. Its head
comprises the upper shadow suggesting
some hesitation at higher levels. Both the
shadow area and gap-up, are crucial technical
levels. Strength above the shadow area is
required to test the 50%-mark. Watch if it
turns lacklustre at higher levels, however.
Pivot Points
CNX Nifty Technical Picture
Index/Stocks
Close
27371.84
8225.20
1380.40
452.20
42.15
1684.90
124.00
84.65
1168.10
222.60
270.20
50.60
733.00
1106.30
2473.55
1040.40
287.15
1274.15
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA
S1
27379.45
8228.80
1376.90
452.70
42.15
1666.00
124.35
83.05
1152.10
222.60
271.25
50.85
720.80
1103.70
2443.80
1025.95
282.90
1278.10
S2
27328.20
8215.10
1370.80
449.60
41.90
1637.70
123.35
82.10
1141.30
220.15
268.55
50.30
716.40
1095.50
2427.40
1012.70
280.40
1267.60
R1
27481.95
8256.25
1389.10
458.85
42.65
1688.85
126.30
85.15
1169.95
227.55
276.65
51.90
736.60
1120.15
2478.75
1044.70
288.45
1299.10
R2
27641.00
8304.70
1395.20
462.30
43.10
1700.25
128.05
86.20
1178.85
230.40
282.65
52.95
744.50
1131.10
2496.25
1054.05
291.20
1308.75
Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – December 2014
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
150.0
50
54
59
26
74
77
43
35
35
98
103
107
10
100.0
50.0
68
0.0
Call
50.0
Put
Intraday
Short Term
Trend
Trend Reversal
Up
8170
Up
7950
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA
8200-8170
8265-8300
0
0
7950
8400
8296
7618
Advances / Declines
Advances
1483
810
BSE
NSE
Declines
1417
704
Daily Technical Calls
1. Buy HCL Technologies above 1592.00
2. Buy Power Grid in range of 135.00-135.50
3. Sell Reliance Infrastructure below 493.50
*All recommendations are of December Future
See Momentum Pick for more details
Buy ARVMIL Dec Fut at 275.50-276.50
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 279.50
Target 2: 284
Stop Loss: 272.50
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 273
27
93
Nifty
Intraday Derivative Strategy
2
116
Trend
+ve
+ve
Neutral
+ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
100.0
150.0
Sell TVSSUZ Dec Fut at 253-254
View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 250
Target 2: 247
Stop Loss: 257.20
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 253
See Daily Derivatives for more details
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Unchanged
102
66
Results/Events Calendar
24
November
Monday
Markit US Service PMI
Markit US Composite PMI
0
0
0
01
December
Monday
HSBC India Manu. PMI
Markit Japan Manu. PMI
Markit EC Manu. PMI
Markit UK Manu. PMI
Mankit US Manu. PMI
08
December
Monday
Japan Current Account Bal.
0
0
0
0
15
December
Monday
India WPI YoY
US Industrial Prod. MoM
US manufacturing Prod.
0
0
22
0
0
0
0
0
December
Monday
25
Tuesday
Eight Infra Industries Ind
US GDP Annualized QoQ
0
0
0
02
Tuesday
Tuesday
17
Tuesday
24
Tuesday
UK GDP YoY
UK Current Account Balance
US GDP Annualised QoQ
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Major Economic Events this week
Date
23-Dec
23-Dec
23-Dec
26-Dec
26-Dec
26-Dec
26-Dec
26-Dec
26-Dec
Event
GDP YoY
Current Account Balance
GDP Annualized QoQ
Eight Infrastructure Industries
Natl CPI YoY
Industrial Production YoY
Eight Infrastructure Industries
Natl CPI YoY
Industrial Production YoY
Thursday
19
Thursday
Friday
26
December
Thursday
0
0
0
0
0
Friday
06
December
13
December
20
December
27
December
Saturday
Saturday
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
December
Friday
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
December
Friday
India Eight Infra Industries
Japan CPI YoY
Japan Industrial Prod. YoY
0
0
November
0
0
0
0
0
December
ECB Current Account
0
0
0
0
29
0
0
0
0
0
December
India CPI YoY
India Industrial Prod YoY
China Industrial Prod YoY
Japan Industrial Production
UK Construction Output
December
25
December
12
December
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
Markit US Comp. PMI
Markit US Service PMI
0
Wednesday
Friday
US Trade Balance
US Unemployment Rate
EC GDP SA YoY
0
0
18
December
US CPI YoY
Eurozone CPI YoY
US Current Account Balance
Japan Trade Balance
0
December
Thursday
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
0
0
0
Wednesday
05
December
11
December
November
India GDP YoY
India Fiscal Deficit
Japan Industrial production
EC CPI Core YoY
EC Unemployment Rate
0
0
0
0
0
Wednesday
India Exports YoY
India Imports YoY
Japan PPI YoY
China CPI YoY
0
December
HSBC China Manu. PMI
Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI
UK CPI YoY
Markit US Manu. PMI
0
23
10
December
Thursday
04
December
28
November
0
0
0
0
0
Wednesday
HSBC India Service PMI
China Non-Manu. PMI
Markit EC Service PMI
Markit EC Composite PMI
EC GDP YoY
UK Industrial Production YoY
UK Manu. Production YoY
0
0
0
16
03
December
27
November
Wednesday
UK GDP YoY
Initial Jobless Claims (US)
Continuing Claims (US)
US New Home Sales
0
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Repurchase Rate
EC PPI YoY
0
09
26
November
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
Bulk Deals
CountryPeriod
UK
3Q F
UK
3Q
US
3Q T
IN
Nov
JN
Nov
JN
Nov P
IN
Nov
JN
Nov
JN
Nov P
Expected Previous
---- -23.1B
-3.90%
6.3%
-2.9%
--0.8%
-6.3%
2.5%
2.9%
-2.4%
-0.8%
Company
BSE*
Aanchal Ispat Ltd
Radico Khaitan Ltd
Weizmann Ltd
Weizmann Ltd
NSE*
Client Name
Guiness Finance & Leasing Private Limited Buy
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte
Sell
Windia Infrastructure Finance Limited
Sell
Sitex India Private Limited
Sell
No. of
shares Price (|)
198,000
674,125
2,646,225
563,369
18.1
90.3
12.0
11.5
Marksans Pharma Ltd
Van Eck Vip Emerging Markets Fund
Buy
2,126,130
61.4
Ncc Limited
Van Eck Vip Emerging Markets Fund
Buy
3,809,668
82.9
Speciality Rest Ltd
L And T Equity Fund
Buy
1138267
175
Recent Releases
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Type
Date
Report
19 December 14
Initiating Coverage- Castrol India
19 December 14
Management Meet Update- Bharti Infratel
17 December 14
Event Update- SpiceJet
17 December 14
Initiating Coverage- VA Tech Wabag
16 December 14
Management Meet Update- MPS
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Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain
Weekly
1-7 days
5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
10%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest
Not regularly
recommended
3 months
20%
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Fortnightly
Fortnightly – every
alternate Wednesday
> 7-15
days
5 – 7%
When published
> 1 year
> 20% &
above
Quarterly
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research