Opening Bell

Opening Bell
October 21, 2014
Results: Biocon, HDFC Bank, KPIT, Cairn India,
JSW Steel, Mahindra CIE, PNB, SKF, Indoco,
McLeod Russel, South Indian Bank; China GDP
Index Movement (past one month)
Key Developments
BSE (RHS)
• Exide Industries’ Q2 results came below our and Street estimates on
the operating margins and profitability front while revenues came in
line with estimates
• Warburg Pincus Llc has invested $200 million in Kerala based Kalyan
Jewellers for a minority stake
• JSW Steel is expected to report sales volumes of 3.1 MT in Q2FY15
with EBITDA/tonne of approx | 8000/tonne
• Biocon’s revenues are expected to grow ~14% YoY on the back of
22% growth in the research services business and 20% growth in
branded formulations
• Cairn India’s revenues are expected to decline 8.2% YoY to | 15418.3
crore on the back of a decline in crude oil prices while PAT is
expected to increase sharply QoQ to | 1117.7 crore due to an
exceptional item in the last quarter
• Indoco’s revenues are expected to grow ~19% YoY on the back of
24% growth in export formulations on the back of a pick-up of sales
in the newly entered geographies and 18% growth in the domestic
formulations business
Sensex
Nifty
20-Oct
16-Oct
23000
13-Oct
24000
7400
9-Oct
25000
7600
7-Oct
26000
7800
30-Sep
27000
8000
26-Sep
28000
8200
24-Sep
8400
22-Sep
Markets Yesterday
• Domestic markets closed positive after a high run throughout the day
mainly after the ruling party's victory in two state assembly elections
of Maharashtra and Haryana and on news the government has raised
the price of gas
• US markets closed positive on the back of largely upbeat US
economic data on the back of easing concerns about an Ebola
outbreak in the US
Today’s Highlights
18-Sep
Market Outlook
• Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive on the back of
reforms announced by the central government as well as positive
global cues. Domestically, sectors such as coal, mining, power, steel,
cement and banks are expected to be in focus.
NSE (LHS)
Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)
26,430 26,109
1.2
-0.8
24.8
16.8
7,879
7,879
0.0
-1.1
25.0
16.6
Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)
CY12
127,034
-55,612
CY13
112,221
-74,125
YTD CY14
81,256
-29,314
Yesterday Last 5 Days
1,040
-2,675
-166
2,298
World Indices – Monthly performance
Shanghai
2,360
1.2%
BSE
26,430
-2.4%
NSE
7,879
-3.0%
Dow Jones
16,400
-4.5%
Nasdaq
4,316
-5.8%
Kospi
1,920
-6.0%
Nikkei
15,002
-7.4%
U.K.
6,267
-8.3%
France
3,991
-10.5%
Germany
8,718
-11.0%
Nifty Heat Map
United
Spirits
DLF
Lupin
Hero
Moto
SBI
Bharti
Airtel
Tech M.
BHEL
Cairn
India
HCL Tech
2,556.3
7.7%
115.2
4.1%
1,386.8
2.9%
2,937.7
2.2%
2,569.5
1.9%
401.7
1.5%
2,296.1
1.0%
228.1
0.6%
276.5
0.1%
1,496.4
-0.6%
Ultratech
Axis Bank
L&T
Sesa
Sterlite
NTPC
HUL
Indusind
Bank
M&M
IDFC
TCS
2,450.3
5.7%
417.9
4.0%
1,495.3
2.9%
237.7
2.1%
143.5
1.8%
736.6
1.4%
667.3
1.0%
1,260.7
0.6%
139.6
0.0%
2,423.3
-0.7%
ONGC
419.0
5.5%
Tata
Motors
494.7
Ambuja
Cement
212.9
Maruti
Bajaj Auto
ACC
4.0%
2.7%
3,003.7
2.1%
2,412.6
1.7%
1,424.2
1.2%
HDFC
Bank
893.8
Sun
Pharma
801.6
NMDC
Infosys
1.0%
0.4%
159.7
-0.1%
3,812.4
-1.0%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Hindalco
PNB
GAIL
Tata
power
Dr Reddy
146.5
5.1%
955.5
3.9%
459.0
2.5%
86.8
2.1%
2,966.3
1.6%
Asian
Paints
647.6
Power
Grid
135.1
Kotak
Bank
1,003.9
RIL
Wipro
1.2%
0.7%
0.4%
935.1
-0.3%
556.4
-1.7%
BPCL
Coal India
HDFC Ltd
ICICI Bank
Cipla
Grasim
Ind
Tata Steel
Bank of
Baroda
ITC
JSPL
696.9
4.5%
361.3
3.0%
1,020.1
2.3%
1,536.9
2.1%
604.3
1.5%
3,317.2
1.2%
450.2
0.6%
873.7
0.2%
352.0
-0.6%
135.5
-8.2%
Markets Today
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs
Close
Previous
Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
27,328
37,728
85.5
6609
27,296
38,346
85.4
6689
0.1
-1.6
0.1
-1.2
2.0
-2.7
-9.7
-1.7
-0.8
-13.1
-22.9
-10.4
61.36
1.28
106.79
61.44
1.28
106.95
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.6
1.3
2.7
0.7
-6.9
-1.4
49.7
53.0
44.4
62.2
48.8
48.9
52.2
42.5
62.0
48.8
1.7
1.6
4.4
0.3
0.0
2.1
NA
-7.9
4.7
-2.9
42.0
NA
38.0
9.6
19.0
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
Sectoral Index
Sector
20000
10-Oct
13-Oct
3,408
15,818
5000
3,096
17,006
10000
3,235
17,400
15000
3,226
15,754
14-Oct
16-Oct
17-Oct
20-Oct
0
BSE Cash
NSE Cash
NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
100000
0
10-Oct
13-Oct
14-Oct
232,798
200000
256,136
300000
241,296
Prior Values
3,979.29bln IN
-1.2bln $
26.96bln $
312.74bln $
4.60%
4.50%
37.8bln $
0.50%
-1.00%
-30.7bln $
10.84bln $
5.20%
4.50%
3.74%
3.45%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
227,361
Latest Values
-7.8bln $
28.9bln $
5.70%
4.70%
43.2bln $
0.40%
-1.40%
-34.6bln $
14.25bln $
3.52%
1.33%
2.38%
2.84%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
2,427
13,389
Release Date
31-Oct
1-Sep
14-Oct
24-Oct
29-Aug
30-May
14-Oct
10-Oct
10-Oct
1-Sep
14-Oct
14-Oct
14-Oct
14-Oct
14-Oct
30-Sep
30-Sep
30-Sep
189,542
Period
Sep
Q2
Sep
w/e
Q1
12M
Sep
Aug
Aug
Q2
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
N/A
N/A
N/A
3,056
15,857
Key Domestic Economic Indicator
Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
236,318
Key Data Points
16-Oct
17-Oct
20-Oct
NSE Derivative
Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)
Close
Previous
Change
% Change
Volume
Auto
17388.2
17018.8
369.4
2.2
1109000
Banks
18564.4
18240.2
324.2
1.8
3328000
BSE Small Cap
10363.5
10314.0
49.5
0.5
52369000
Capital Goods
4655000
14548.3
14244.2
304.1
2.1
Consumer Durables
9395.1
9281.4
113.7
1.2
428000
FMCG
7339.7
7308.1
31.6
0.4
1868000
Healthcare
13632.3
13467.2
165.2
1.2
758000
IT
10047.2
10131.0
-83.8
-0.8
633000
Metals
11022.6
10852.4
170.2
1.6
7234000
Mid Cap
9376.1
9272.5
103.6
1.1
51767000
Oil & Gas
10747.0
10542.1
204.8
1.9
4034000
Power
2017.8
1988.9
28.9
1.5
9979000
PSU
8064.2
7856.5
207.7
2.6
13202000
Real Estate
1442.2
1429.6
12.5
0.9
12902000
Banks
PSU
FMCG
Consumer Durables
Oil & Gas
Healthcare
Power
Capital Goods
Auto
Mid Cap
IT
BSE Small Cap
Metals
Real Estate
-18.7
-20.0
0.5
0.2
-1.9
-2.0
-2.4
-2.6
-3.2
-3.5
-3.9
-5.0
-5.0
-7.4
-9.3
-15.0
-10.0
(%)
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Key News for Today
Company/Industry
News
Indian coal sector The government has brought an ordinance to
facilitate the e-auction of coal blocks for private
companies
View
The user industry will be able to acquire
mines through a transparent e-auction
process in the medium-term. This will
ensure fuel supply to companies in future
Hero Motorcorp
With a view to becoming a global twowheeler player, HMCL plans to raise
annual production capacity to 12 million
units by 2020, with ~20 manufacturing
plants. Focus on R&D and product
development augurs well for the future
product pipeline as it looks to stay ahead
of competition in terms of technology
and efficiency
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) has lined up an
investment of | 5000 crore over the next three
years to build new manufacturing plants, even
outside India as well as an R&D centre
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Impact
Key News for Today
United Spirits
United Spirits (USL) is planning to sell two
distilleries, one each in Andhra Pradesh & Kerala,
and move towards distillation & distribution of
the high margin Diageo brands. The company
also plans to monetise the surplus assets of the
company
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
This augurs well for the company as it
moves towards closure of low margin
plants, which were a drag on the
profitability. Also, distribution of Diageo
brands for a fee will further improve
income for USL
Sensex Chart
Technical Outlook
We said, "Strength above the candle positive
with faster retracement of last week's fall..."
The index gapped up above Friday but
stopped short of complete retracement of last
week's fall. While the Sensex finished 321
points or 1.2% higher, the PSUs, auto, capital
goods and oil & gas indices added about 2%
each. The A/D ratio also strengthened to 2:1.
The action formed a Doji, with Open=Close
indicating lack of follow-up above the initial
euphoria on state poll results. One day is still
left to generate faster retracement of last
week's fall. Accordingly, strength and close
above 26551 can open up further positive
options. However, failure to reach/sustain
above 26551 can be negative and test the gaparea.
Pivot Points
CNX Nifty Technical Picture
Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA
Close
26429.85
7879.40
1424.20
450.30
43.60
1637.25
106.15
75.20
1038.65
208.40
283.75
44.35
647.60
933.75
2412.60
873.65
260.55
1214.15
S1
26434.35
7880.10
1422.65
449.20
43.60
1639.20
106.00
74.95
1038.55
208.90
282.65
44.50
648.80
930.70
2409.80
875.85
260.55
1207.80
S2
26397.15
7867.85
1415.45
445.40
43.35
1626.80
105.55
74.30
1032.45
207.45
280.25
44.15
645.85
923.70
2398.30
868.95
257.85
1199.05
R1
26508.85
7904.60
1437.10
456.80
44.05
1664.05
106.90
76.30
1050.75
211.80
287.50
45.20
654.65
944.70
2432.80
889.60
265.95
1225.20
R2
26658.40
7947.75
1447.35
459.95
44.50
1679.00
108.55
77.80
1059.15
213.60
290.50
45.70
660.45
954.50
2447.35
893.50
268.65
1233.90
Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – October 2014
7500
7600
7700
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
80.0
40
49
20
43
23
64
64
9
7
7
40.0
20.0
56
43
0.0
Call
20.0
Put
Intraday
Up
7855
7855-7820
7928-7970
0
0
Short Term
Range bound
0
7700
8200
7908
7259
Advances / Declines
Advances
1637
934
BSE
NSE
Declines
1197
587
Daily Technical Calls
1. Buy Lupin in range of 1388.00-1390.00
2. Buy NTPC above 144.75
*All recommendations are of October Future
See Momentum Pick for more details
Buy HINDAL Oct Fut in rng of 148.00-148.50
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 149.90
Target 2: 152.50
Stop Loss: 146.50
Market Lot: 2000
CMP : 146.50
7
48
60.0
Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA
Intraday Derivative Strategy
2
4
56
54
Trend
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
Neutral
40.0
60.0
80.0
Sell WIPRO Oct Fut in rng of 562.00-564.00
View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 556.50
Target 2: 550
Stop Loss: 570.10
Market Lot: 500
CMP : 559
See Daily Derivatives for more details
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Unchanged
120
56
Results/Events Calendar
06
October
Monday
0
0
0
0
0
07
08
October
Tuesday
09
October
Wednesday
Cera Sanityware
HSBC China Services PMI
HSBC India Services PMI
HSBC China Composite PMI
HSBC India Composite PMI
Japan Trade Balance
UK Industrial Production YoY 0
UK Manufacturing Production Y 0
13
October
Monday
Indusind Bank, Sintex Ind.
Reliance Industries
TTK Prestige, India CPI YoY
India Import/Export YoY
China Trade Balance
20
October
Monday
Exide Industries, JustDial
Idea Cellular
Wabco India
Jindal Saw
Hindustan Zinc
27
October
Monday
kajaria Ceramics
Eight Infra. Ind. India
Markit US PMI
0
0
03
Dabur
0
0
0
0
November
Monday
14
15
October
Tuesday
Bajaj Auto, Bluedart
Symphony Ltd
India WPI YoY
Japan PPI YoY
UK CPI YoY
21
22
October
Tuesday
Biocon, HDFC Bank, KPIT
Cairn India, JSW Steel
Mahindra CIE, PNB, SKF
Indoco, McLeod Russel
South Indian Bank
28
29
October
Tuesday
05
Tuesday
V-Guard
Gujrat Pipavav Port
0
0
0
23
October
Wednesday
October
Wednesday
Dr. Reddy's Lab
CONCOR
Sesa Sterlite
Industrial Prod. Japan
Fed QE3 Pace
November
0
0
0
0
0
October
Thursday
November
Torrent Pharma, Bata
FAG Bearings
Shoppers Stop, Bata India
0
0
06
November
Thursday
Cadila, Aurobindo Pharma
Ashok Leyland
0
0
0
October
Saturday
Persistent Systems
Unichem labs
Oberoi Realty
LIC Housing Finance
0
25
October
Friday
0
0
0
0
0
30
18
Friday
24
October
October
Saturday
TV18
0
0
0
0
October
Axis bank, NIIT, HCL Tech
Mahindra Lifespace
HT Media, Zee Ent.
0
0
Thursday
NHPC, IDFC
Bharti Airtel, Glenmark
Ajanta Pharma
Maruti Suzuki
US GDP Annualised QoQ
Wednesday
Major Economic Events this week
Friday
17
October
Thursday
TCS, InfoEdge, DB Corp
Rallis India, Somany, CMC
Bajaj Corp
Federal Bank, Hero Motocorp
Initial Jobless Claims (US)
HDFC, Kotak bank, Wipro
Asian Paints
Havells, Kansai
0
0
Nestle India, Lupin
0
0
0
0
04
16
October
11
October
India Local Car Sales
Infosys
Germany Trade Balance
India Industrial Production YoY
Germany Current Account Bala India Exports YoY
Initial Jobless Claims (US)
India Imports YoY
Continuing claims (US)
UK Trade Balance
Wednesday
Cyient, Mindtree, NIIT Tech
Japan Ind. Prod. YoY
China CPI YoY
UK Jobless Claims
0
10
October
Thursday
October
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
31
Friday
M&M, MMDC, PVR
Transport Corp of India
India Fiscal Deficit
Japan Jobless Rate
0
07
01
October
Saturday
Godrej Consumer
China Manufacturing PMI
0
0
0
08
November
Friday
Navneet Education
0
0
0
0
November
November
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
Result Preview
Date
20-Oct
Event
Country Period
ECB Current Account SA EC
Aug
Date
21-Oct
21-Oct
21-Oct
22-Oct
22-Oct
23-Oct
23-Oct
23-Oct
23-Oct
23-Oct
24-Oct
24-Oct
Event
Country
Existing Home Sales MoMUS
Industrial Production YoY CH
GDP YoY
CH
Trade Balance
JN
CPI YoY
US
Markit Eurozone ManufactEC
Markit US Manufacturing US
Initial Jobless Claims
US
Continuing Claims
US
HSBC China Manufacturin CH
GDP YoY
UK
New Home Sales
US
Period
Sep
Sep
3Q
Sep
Sep
Oct P
Oct P
18-Oct
11-Oct
Oct P
3Q A
Sep
Actual Expected
18.9B
-Expected Previous
1.00%
-1.80%
7.50%
6.90%
7.20%
7.50%
-¥771.5B -¥948.5B
1.60%
1.70%
50.0
50.3
57.3
57.5
-264K
-2389K
50.1
50.2
3.00%
3.20%
470K
504K
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Revenue
EBITDA
Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ Q2FY15E
Q2FY15E
HDFC Bank
5,233.4
16.9
1.2 4,030.6
Biocon
846.0
14.2
16.6
207.1
KPIT
724.8
3.1
5.1
105.1
JSW Steel
13,564.2
4.5
2.3 2,628.3
Mahindra CIE
100.4
5.8
7.1
16.8
Mcleod Russel
543.1
10.7 446.5
288.3
SKF India
626.3
9.4
4.2
76.6
Cairn India Ltd
4,268.1
-8.2
-4.8 2,913.3
Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC
Company
Recent Releases
Date
Report
20 October 14
Result Update- Info Edge
20 October 14
Result Update- LIC Housing Finance
20 October 14
Result Update- Oberoi Realty
20 October 14
Result Update- HT Media
20 October 14
Result Update- HCL Technologies
PAT
Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ Q2FY15E
19.0
4.9 2,398.0
17.8
19.1
131.2
-3.4
26.4
64.1
11.9
0.6
662.0
59.7
4.3
7.6
9.7
LP
273.0
13.6
0.1
54.3
-16.3
-4.6 2,540.6
Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ
21.0
7.4
28.4
27.5
-3.9
26.3
LP
0.8
71.2
40.9
11.2
LP
16.5
0.3
-24.9 132.5
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Weekly Calls
Weekly Technicals
Weekly Derivatives
Market Trends
Global Derivatives
Monthly Technical’s
Technical trends for a week considering key
technical indicators & statistical information
Features stocks with a trading outlook for a
week based on short-term technical trends
considering key technical indicators &
statistical information.
Trading opportunities in futures & options
segment based on data analysis, overall
market trend, volatility & open interest
positions of securities.
Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O
data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis
along with statistical inputs.
Derivatives outlook on global equity indices,
currencies and commodities. Also,
elaborating the likely impact on the Indian
bourses.
Trading outlook for a month based on
medium-term technical trends considering
key technical indicators & statistical
information.
Medium & Long term recommendations
Tecno Funda
On basis of Technical and Fundamental
whenever opportunity occurs we give these
Pick/Technical
calls
Deliver Call
Positional Derivatives
Stocks on the move
Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers
vis a vis index along with positional
recommendation on Stocks/Nifty.
Covers stocks, which are likely to show
significant upward movement in the next 15
days due to change in trader sentiment.
Detailed Company
Report
Fundamental report understanding the
business model and future prospects of the
company & valuations.
Equity Model
Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks
A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large
cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain
Weekly
1-7 days
5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
10%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest
Not regularly
recommended
3 months
20%
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Fortnightly
Fortnightly – every
alternate Wednesday
> 7-15
days
5 – 7%
When published
> 1 year
> 20% &
above
Quarterly
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
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report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research