Opening Bell - ICICI Direct
Transcription
Opening Bell - ICICI Direct
Opening Bell December 29, 2014 Stock specific action Index Movement (past one month) Key Developments BSE (RHS) • The government is planning to spend | 3 lakh crore on investments in power transmission & distribution to achieve its ambitious target to give 24x7 electricity to all by 2020 • According to media sources, Infosys has, for the first time, partnered with three training firms to improve its sales team efficiency and deal win ratio • According to media sources, Hyundai Motors is looking at launching its compact SUV codenamed GS in H1FY15E • The Dabhol power project's management and promoters NTPC and the Maharashtra state government have opposed the plan of lenders and the central government to sell the plant's liquefied natural gas terminal to pare its | 8,500 crore debt • The DoT has sought views from the Defence and Finance Ministries on the draft note of spectrum auction. The auctions are scheduled to take place from February 23 next year • Kingfisher Airlines' two-year term to renew its flying permit expires on December 31. The Vijay Mallya promoted full service carrier has been grounded since October 2012 and lost its flying license on December 31, 2012 Sensex Nifty 26-Dec 23-Dec 24000 19-Dec 25000 7800 17-Dec 26000 8000 15-Dec 27000 8200 11-Dec 28000 8400 9-Dec 29000 8600 5-Dec 8800 3-Dec Markets Yesterday • Domestic markets ended a choppy session marginally higher. Technology stocks supported the markets after a report showed that the US labour market is steadily improving as the year ends • US markets closed positive. Sentiments remained bullish on continued signs of strength in the economy and on Fed comments that it will be cautious in its decision on starting to raise interest rates Today’s Highlights 1-Dec Market Outlook • Indian markets are likely to remain in consolidation mode before the Q3 earnings season. In the long term, however, the undertone continues to remain bullish. The volatility may increase on global news flows but it is prudent to remain invested. NSE (LHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd) 27,242 27,209 0.1 -5.1 28.7 17.7 8,201 8,174 0.3 -4.5 30.1 17.6 Institutional Activity FII (| cr) DII (| cr) CY12 127,481 -56,894 CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days 112,221 98,531 40 -2,837 -73,464 -30,811 417 2,455 World Indices – Monthly performance Shanghai 3,199 21.2% Kospi 1,935 -1.6% Nikkei 17,851 2.5% France 4,296 -1.7% Germany 9,922 1.9% U.K. 6,610 -1.8% Dow Jones 18,054 1.3% NSE 8,201 -3.2% Nasdaq 4,807 0.4% BSE 27,242 -4.0% Nifty Heat Map DLF Infosys BPCL GAIL RIL Bharti Airtel ONGC Indusind Bank NMDC Grasim Ind 136.2 3.5% 1,952.3 1.1% 645.7 0.9% 437.7 0.7% 888.9 0.5% 354.3 0.3% 344.5 0.1% 784.5 0.0% 144.5 -0.3% 3,382.3 -0.8% JSPL Sesa Sterlite Hindalco IDFC Lupin 149.3 2.2% 207.5 1.0% 152.0 0.9% 154.7 0.7% 1,407.0 0.4% Cairn India 241.9 Bajaj Auto 2,480.7 NTPC Ambuja Cement HUL 0.3% 0.1% 139.3 0.0% 226.1 -0.4% 750.4 -0.9% Tech M. PNB L&T SBI Coal India M&M Axis Bank Tata power Cipla ITC 2,566.7 2.0% 222.3 1.0% 1,490.2 0.8% 307.7 0.6% 378.4 0.4% 1,255.3 0.3% 494.5 0.0% 81.2 -0.1% 622.8 -0.4% 368.0 -0.9% ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research HCL Tech TCS 1,564.7 1.6% 2,505.0 1.0% Bank of Baroda 1,068.2 Kotak Bank 1,253.1 HDFC Bank 948.7 0.4% Tata Motors 485.2 ACC 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1,393.5 0.0% Hero Moto 3,096.4 ICICI Bank 351.0 Maruti -0.1% -0.6% 3,333.1 -1.0% HDFC Ltd Sun Pharma Tata Steel Power Grid Wipro United Spirits 1,116.2 1.5% 811.2 1.0% 398.3 0.8% 137.1 0.6% 547.4 0.3% 2,726.3 0.2% 3,134.1 Dr Reddy 0.0% Asian Paints Ultratech BHEL 727.1 -0.2% 2,603.0 -0.7% 251.6 -1.2% Markets Today Close Previous Commodities Gold (|/10 gm) Silver (|/kg) Crude ($/barrel) Copper ($/tonne) Currency USD/INR EUR/USD USD/YEN ADRs HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Tata Motors Infosys Dr Reddys Labs Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) 27,225 36,962 59.8 6361 27,207 35,999 59.5 6381 0.1 2.7 0.6 -0.3 3.6 3.6 -14.7 -0.8 -1.1 -14.9 -46.0 -13.8 63.57 1.22 120.46 63.53 1.22 120.31 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.4 -2.1 -1.5 -2.8 -11.3 -12.6 50.4 11.5 41.4 31.8 49.3 50.9 11.7 41.1 31.7 49.6 -1.0 -1.7 0.6 0.2 -0.6 -2.9 NA -7.7 -9.0 -15.4 46.2 NA 34.3 12.4 20.1 Sectoral Index Sector 19-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec BSE Cash 1,962 22,159 18-Dec 2,553 22,159 2,523 13,630 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2,478 12,524 24-Dec 26-Dec NSE Cash 18-Dec 19-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 303,486 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 566,898 NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) 517,331 Prior Values 4,757.51bln IN -7.8bln mo 26.1bln $ 316.83bln $ 5.70% 4.50% 39.4bln $ 2.50% 2.50% -34.6bln $ 13.35bln $ 2.70% 0.40% 1.77% 2.43% 4.00% 8.00% 7.00% 325,027 Latest Values 10.1bln mo 25.96bln $ 5.30% 4.70% 42.82bln $ -4.20% -7.60% 38.6bln $ 16.86bln $ 0.63% -4.91% 2.04% 4.00% 8.00% 7.00% 3,693 18,294 Release Date 31-Dec 03~08Dec 10~15Dec 26-Dec 28-Nov 30-May 10~15Dec 12-Dec 12-Dec 03~08Dec 10~15Dec 15-Dec 15-Dec 15-Dec 15-Dec 2-Dec 2-Dec 2-Dec 328,560 Period Nov Q3 Nov w/e Q2 12M Nov Oct Oct Q3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov N/A N/A N/A 3,015 16,509 Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Key Domestic Economic Indicator Fed Fiscal Deficit Current Account Exports - USD FX Reserves, USD Final GDP Quarterly yy GDP Annual Imports - USD Industrial Output yy Manufacturing Output Trade Deficit - RBI Trade Deficit Govt - USD WPI Food yy WPI Fuel yy WPI Inflation yy WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy RBI Cash Reserve Ratio RBI Repo Rate RBI Reverse Repo Rate 303,486 Key Data Points 26-Dec NSE Derivative Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Close Previous Change % Change Volume Auto 18455.1 18462.6 -7.4 0.0 1118000 Banks 21253.3 21226.6 26.7 0.1 3915000 BSE Small Cap 10894.9 10892.9 2.0 0.0 80722000 Capital Goods 15113.1 15071.8 41.3 0.3 3051000 Consumer Durables 9359.5 9406.2 -46.6 -0.5 192000 FMCG 7686.1 7749.1 -63.1 -0.8 454000 Healthcare 14409.5 14372.7 36.8 0.3 668000 IT 10422.2 10334.4 87.8 0.8 440000 Metals 10562.5 10501.5 61.1 0.6 3013000 Mid Cap 10115.9 10074.5 41.3 0.4 45369000 Oil & Gas 9878.8 9871.7 7.1 0.1 1024000 Power 2032.6 2035.9 -3.3 -0.2 6872000 PSU 8121.3 8082.9 38.4 0.5 13659000 Real Estate 1533.9 1519.9 14.1 0.9 8700000 Banks Mid Cap FMCG PSU Auto BSE Small Cap Healthcare Consumer Durables -4.8 Power -6.1 IT -6.3 Metals Capital Goods -6.9 -7.6 Real Estate Oil & Gas -9.2 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 3.2 0.0 -0.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -4.0 -2.0 (%) 0.0 2.0 4.0 Key News for Today Company/Industry TCS News Media reports suggest TCS ex-employees, who were asked to leave as per the company's recent workforce optimisation drive, are looking at legal recourse backed by certain activists' groups. The employees are generally with >10 years of experience in the assistant and associate consultant bands on the delivery side View The company has reiterated its stance of leaving out only those employees who are non-performers. Though this could impact employee morale, operating margins could improve, going ahead VA Tech Wabag The company has won an order for a sewage treatment plant (STP) in Valenzuela, Philippines for | 175 crore, which is funded by the World Bank. The company will undertake desiging, building and O&M service of thisc 60 MLD STP for Maynilad water services With this order win, the company's total order backlog in Philippines has totalled | 450 crore. The order intake will further strengthen Wabag's presence in the European region, which would help the company to meet its order intake target of | 3200-3400 crore for FY15E ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Impact Key News for Today The shortfall in sowing of Rabi crops can be attributed to delayed monsoon and consequent delay in sowing of Kharif Crops. The situation is expected to improve once all kharif crops of the current season (FY15) are harvested Indian Agricultural Sector As per media sources, the sowing of Rabi crops (in terms of acreage) is down 5% as compared to the same time last year. Total acreage under Rabi crop as of December 26, 2014 came in at 53 million hectares (MH) vis-à-vis 55.8 MH in the corresponding period last year Petronet LNG Petronet has been shortlisted for setting up an If selected, it would set up a 3.5 MMTPA LNG import terminal in Bangladesh terminal and diversify its business ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Sensex Chart Technical Outlook We said, "Bias negative if the index weakens/closes below Wednesday's low..." The index did break Wednesday's low but did not close below it. Down 118 points at 2:30 pm, it recovered 179 points, and finished 33 points or 0.1% higher for the day. While the PSU bank, realty and IT outperformed, the FMCG sector kept the Sensex under pressure. The A/D ratio ended slightly positive. The action formed a High Wave, with bothside shadows indicating intra-day volatility. The index broke Wednesday's low but refused to close below it. This could prove to be a fallarresting candle if today's action strengthens and closes above its head. However, failure to reach/sustain above Friday's high would keep negative options open. Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Index/Stocks SENSEX NIFTY ACC ADANI ENTER. ADANI POWER ADITYA BIRLA ALLAHABAD BANK ANDHRA BANK APOLLO HOSPITALS APOLLO TYRES ARVIND ASHOK LEYLAND ASIAN PAINTS AUROBINDO PHARMA BAJAJ AUTO BOB BOI BATA INDIA Close 27241.78 8200.70 1393.50 452.90 42.80 1669.80 130.30 90.25 1128.80 218.15 277.40 49.75 727.05 1093.05 2480.70 1068.20 301.50 1279.45 S1 27098.55 8175.90 1388.90 450.75 42.70 1671.60 129.50 89.50 1121.25 216.30 276.25 49.45 724.05 1087.15 2470.60 1066.85 299.90 1274.75 S2 26992.40 8154.25 1382.55 446.50 42.45 1662.50 128.10 88.30 1116.50 214.75 273.10 49.10 720.05 1082.25 2460.85 1062.10 297.20 1270.15 R1 27238.20 8219.20 1401.55 459.25 43.25 1689.80 132.30 91.95 1130.75 218.05 282.55 50.15 732.05 1096.95 2490.05 1076.30 305.25 1284.00 R2 27308.00 8240.85 1407.85 461.40 43.75 1698.60 133.00 92.60 1135.50 218.95 284.20 50.50 736.05 1101.85 2499.75 1079.65 307.05 1288.60 Trend -ve Neutral Neutral +ve +ve +ve +ve +ve -ve -ve +ve Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral +ve +ve Neutral Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Trend Reversal Up 8185 Up 7950 Support Resistance 20 Days EMA 200 days EMA 8185-8155 8240-8270 0 0 7950 8650 8276 7642 Advances / Declines Advances 1381 772 BSE NSE Declines 1451 739 Daily Technical Calls 1. Buy Bank of India above 305.00 2. Buy Exide Industries in range of 177.50-178.00 3. Sell Apollo Hospital below 1137.00 *All recommendations are of January Future See Momentum Pick for more details Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – January 2014 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 100.0 Intraday Derivative Strategy Buy WIPRO JAN Fut at 546.00-547.00 View: Bullish Strategy: Buy Future Target 1: 552 Target 2: 557 Stop Loss: 541 Market Lot: 500 CMP : 550 3 2 51 55 25 87 11 66 69 24 60 59 66 23 25 26 80.0 60.0 40.0 53 61 20.0 Call 0.0 Put 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 Sell ASIPAI JAN Fut at 737.50-738.50 View: Bearish Strategy: Sell Future Target 1: 732 Target 2: 725 Stop Loss: 742.9 Market Lot: 500 CMP : 734.60 See Daily Derivatives for more details ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Unchanged 123 62 Results/Events Calendar 08 Monday Japan Current Account Bal. 0 0 0 0 15 16 Monday Tuesday 23 Monday 29 30 December Monday 0 0 0 0 0 December Tuesday January Monday Japan Manu. PMI 0 0 0 0 06 January Tuesday HSBC India Services PMI HSBC India Composite PMI HSBC China Services PMI Markit US Services PMI Markit Japan Services PMI Thursday 25 December 0 0 0 0 0 December US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims Markit US Comp. PMI Markit US Service PMI 0 Wednesday December Thursday 0 0 0 0 0 31 07 08 Wednesday US Trade Balance Eurozone CPI YoY 0 0 0 Event CountryPeriod Expected Previous Fiscal Deficit INR Crore IN Nov -- 36925.0 HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH Dec F 49.5 49.5 Initial Jobless Claims US 27-Dec -280K Continuing Claims US 20-Dec -2403K Manufacturing PMI CH Dec 50.0 50.3 HSBC India Manu. PMI IN Dec -53.3 Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI EC Dec F 50.8 50.8 Markit UK PMI Manu. SA UK Dec 53.6 53.5 Markit US Manu. PMI US Dec F 54.0 53.7 January Thursday China Manufacturing PMI 0 0 0 0 January 12 December Friday India CPI YoY India Industrial Prod YoY China Industrial Prod YoY Japan Industrial Production UK Construction Output 19 Friday ECB Current Account 0 0 0 0 26 Friday January Thursday China Trade Balance US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims Eurozone PPI YoY 0 09 Friday Friday 27 December 03 January 10 January Saturday Saturday Saturday Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Bulk Deals Company BSE* Chambal Breweries Dist. EPC Industries Ltd. JMC Projects (India) Ltd. V-mart Retail Ltd. V-mart Retail Ltd. No. of shares Price (|) Client Name Type Arch Capital Advisors Llp Indianivesh Securities Private Limited Crest Capital & Investment Fidelity Trustee Company Private Limited Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt Lt Buy Sell Buy Buy Sell 100,000 173,000 135,000 500,000 500,000 KSS Limited Lilac Farms Private Limited Sell 1,861,248 5.1 Technocraft Industries Indianivesh Securities Pvt. Ltd. Sell 300000 170.5 7.5 146.8 176.0 563.0 563.0 NSE* Recent Releases ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research December 0 0 0 0 0 January China CPI YoY UK Trade Balance UK Industrial Prod. YoY UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY 0 20 Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 January HSBC India Manu. PMI Eurozone Manu. PMI UK Manufacuring PMI US Manufacturing PMI 0 December 0 0 0 0 0 December 02 13 0 0 0 0 0 December India Eight Infra Industries Japan CPI YoY Japan Industrial Prod. YoY 0 0 01 December Wednesday Major Economic Events this week Date 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 2-Jan 2-Jan 2-Jan Thursday 18 December Wednesday India Fiscal Deficit HSBC China Manu. PMI US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 24 Tuesday December US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims 0 0 0 US CPI YoY Eurozone CPI YoY US Current Account Balance Japan Trade Balance 0 December UK GDP YoY UK Current Account Balance US GDP Annualised QoQ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Tuesday 11 December Wednesday India Exports YoY India Imports YoY Japan PPI YoY China CPI YoY 0 December HSBC China Manu. PMI Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI UK CPI YoY Markit US Manu. PMI 0 December 10 December UK Industrial Production YoY UK Manu. Production YoY 0 0 0 December India WPI YoY US Industrial Prod. MoM US manufacturing Prod. 0 0 22 09 December Date Report 26 December 14 Company Update – Mastek Ltd 24 December 14 Company Update – Container Corporation 24 December 14 Company Update – Jaiprakash Associates 24 December 14 Company Update – Gujarat Pipavav Port 24 December 14 Quick Comment – UltraTech Cement Research Product Basket Research Perspective Product Pre-market view & Recommendation Opening Bell Daily Calls Daily Derivative Daily comprehensive snapshot containing information & in-depth analysis of Indian & US markets, major headlines, technical view, derivatives statistics, economic indicators, commodities, market indicators, domestic & global events. Features four stocks & Nifty view with a trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading strategy for a day in the futures & options segment based on news events, market trends, technical & other factors governing movements in stocks. Frequency Time frame Avg. Returns objective Location on ICICIdirect.com Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day - Market Page, Trading PageScroller & iCLICK-2-GAIN Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Intraday Recommendation BTST Calls Margin Calls Derivative Calls Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Provides simplified derivative strategies such as spreads and covered calls Derivative Strategies Weekly & Monthly recommendations Weekly Calls Weekly Technicals Weekly Derivatives Market Trends Global Derivatives Monthly Technical’s Technical trends for a week considering key technical indicators & statistical information Features stocks with a trading outlook for a week based on short-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading opportunities in futures & options segment based on data analysis, overall market trend, volatility & open interest positions of securities. Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis along with statistical inputs. Derivatives outlook on global equity indices, currencies and commodities. Also, elaborating the likely impact on the Indian bourses. Trading outlook for a month based on medium-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Medium & Long term recommendations Tecno Funda On basis of Technical and Fundamental whenever opportunity occurs we give these Pick/Technical calls Deliver Call Positional Derivatives Stocks on the move Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers vis a vis index along with positional recommendation on Stocks/Nifty. Covers stocks, which are likely to show significant upward movement in the next 15 days due to change in trader sentiment. Detailed Company Report Fundamental report understanding the business model and future prospects of the company & valuations. Equity Model Portfolio High Dividend Yield Stocks A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large cap, midcap and diversified Features high dividend yielding stocks for assured returns on investment Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN iClick-2-Gain Weekly 1-7 days 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days 10% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iClick-2-Invest Not regularly recommended 3 months 20% Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN Fortnightly Fortnightly – every alternate Wednesday > 7-15 days 5 – 7% When published > 1 year > 20% & above Quarterly Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Pankaj Pandey Head – Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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