Closing Bell

Closing Bell
November 12, 2014
a74
Domestic Indices Snapshot
Indices
Close
S&P BSE Sensex
CNX Nifty
Nifty future
S&PBSE 500
S&PBSE Midcap
S&PBSE Smallcap
S&PBSE Bankex
Change
change%
98.84
20.65
16.65
39.32
47.62
22.40
223.20
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.2
1.1
28,008.9
8,383.3
8,412.5
10,737.0
10,133.3
11,184.4
20,117.8
Market Snapshot
•
•
•
Sectoral Performance
Equity benchmarks scaled fresh life-time highs ahead of IIP and CPI
data print to be released late on Wednesday. The Sensex settled
above 28000 for the first time ever while the Nifty hit the 8400 mark
intra-day before settling marginally below the same
The BSE Sensex gained 98 points or 0.4% to settle at 28008 while the
Nifty shut the shop at 8383, up 20 points or 0.2%
In the broader market space, the BSE midcap index outperformed
gaining 0.5% while the small cap index fared in line with benchmarks
and gained 0.2%. The overall market breadth was flattish with A/D
ratio of 1:1
Corporate/Economic Highlights
1.2
1.1
•
1.0
0.5
-0.9
-1.4
% Change
-0.6
•
Power
Metals
PSU
FMCG
Banks
Auto
-2.5
•
Nifty Top Gainers & Losers
1.8
-2.9
•
-3.1
•
POWERGRID
TATAPOWER
AMBUJACEM,
DLF
AXISBANK
-2.7
CIPLA
2.2
% Change
3.2
Aditya Birla Nuvo rose 5.54% to | 1822.55, after the company said its
consolidated net profit rose 55.79% to | 452.05 crore on 2.07% fall in
total income to | 6565.40 crore in Q2 September 2014 over Q2
September 2013
Oil India declined 2.34% to | 596, after the company said its net profit
fell 32.68% to | 608.33 crore on 17.53% fall in total income to
| 2622.26 crore in Q2 September 2014 over Q2 September 2013
Power Grid Corporation of India declined 3.12% to | 143.05, after the
company reported a 3.06% fall in net profit to | 1201.27 crore on
4.99% rise in total income to | 4309.26 crore in Q2 September 2014
over Q2 September 2013
Aurobindo Pharma rose 3.25% to | 1063, after the company said its
unit has emerged as the highest bidder to acquire US-based Natrol
Inc
Adani Enterprises fell 1.79% to | 476.75, after reporting a
consolidated net profit of | 210.29 crore in Q2 September 2014
compared with net loss of | 416.95 crore in Q2 September 2013
Market Outlook
•
Market Breadth
Adv
Dec
BSE
1523
1520
NSE
557
592
NSE Cash Turnover
(| crore)
12-Nov
11-Nov
10-Nov
Nse Cash
17392
16944
16680
•
•
•
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
After a buoyant start led by firm Asian cues, the Nifty scaled fresh
life-time highs and surpassed 8400 for the first time ever in the first
few hours of trade. However, underperformance from heavyweights
from the oil & gas, IT and pharma pack kept gains in check leading
the index to surrender most of the intra-day gains by mid-session.
The strong performance from banking stocks helped the index to
recover some of the lost ground towards the end. Sectorally, auto
and banking stocks extended their rally while metal and power stocks
remained under pressure
The price action resulted in another Doji, an indecisive candle
formation, suggesting a narrow range trade. The index, however,
resolved higher from the past five session’s trading range on a
closing basis signalling continuance of the up trend and positive bias
The Nifty gapped up above Tuesday’s high (8378) and now remains
within striking distance of our immediate target of 8450. The series of
back to back indecisive candles formed on the daily chart indicate a
slowdown in momentum after a rally of over 600 points in a short
span of time. Such behaviour after a strong rally suggests a breather
taken by bulls to gather steam for continuance of the upward journey.
Outperformance of broader markets and largely positive market
breadth during last week highlight the prevailing buoyancy in the
market
After concluding a recent narrow range action, we expect the index to
resolve higher and head towards our short-term target of 8450. The
138.2% extension of the preceding 900 point rally measured from the
post election results low of 7218 projects upside towards 8450 in the
short-term. A sustained close above 8450 will see the current rally
•
•
extend towards 8650 being the depth of the September-October
correction (457 points) added to breakout point of 8180
Earlier, the index had cemented its bullish stance by posting a faster
retracement of the September-October 2014 decline. The strong
upward momentum is reflected in four unfilled bullish gaps in the
current up move. From an immediate short-term perspective, the
fourth bullish gap area (8198-8169) coinciding with the breakout area
of September 2014 high around 8180 will act as key technical support
for the index. Any cool-off towards the same will attract fresh buying
Among oscillators, the short term stochastic is seen gradually easing
from the overbought threshold while the 14 period RSI has turned flat
in line with the pause in price momentum
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily chart
Index settled at new closing high continuing its up trend. We
expect the index to eventually resolve higher after conclusion
of current consolidation and head towards 8450 levels
8180
Gap #4
Gap #3
Gap #2
Gap #1
100 SMA
7723
7540
Stochastic continues to ease marginally from the overbought threshold
meanwhile RSI has turned flat along with pause in price momentum
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
\
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Date
Event
US
12-Nov
MBA Mortgage Applications
12-Nov
Wholesale Inventories MoM
12-Nov
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
13-Nov
Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims
13-Nov
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
13-Nov
JOLTS Job Openings
14-Nov
Monthly Budget Statement
14-Nov
Retail Sales Advance MoM
14-Nov
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
India
12-Nov
CPI/Industrial Production YoY
14-Nov
Wholesale Prices YoY
25-Nov
Eight Infrastructure Industries
China
13-Nov
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY
13-Nov
Retail Sales YTD YoY
13-Nov
Industrial Production YTD YoY
14-Nov
Foreign Direct Investment YoY
UK
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
12-Nov
Claimant Count Rate
12-Nov
Jobless Claims Change
12-Nov
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
12-Nov
Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY
12-Nov
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
12-Nov
Bank of England Inflation Report
Page 3
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Technical & Derivative Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4