Opening Bell - ICICI Direct
Transcription
Opening Bell - ICICI Direct
Opening Bell January 23, 2015 Results: UltraTech, EPC Industrie, Wabco, Colgate; India Eight Infra. industries, China Manufacturing PMI, US Manufacturing PMI Index Movement (past one month) 2-Jan Key Developments BSE (RHS) • Cairn India reported its Q3FY15 results with revenues declining 29.9% YoY to | 3504.1 crore, above our estimate of | 3069.5 crore on account of lower than estimated profit sharing with the government. PAT during the quarter declined 53.2% YoY to | 1349.64 crore, marginally below our estimate of | 1356.9 crore • Biocon’s Q3FY15 revenues grew 8.8% YoY to | 769.2 crore, marginally above I-direct estimates of | 749.5 crore. EBITDA margins dropped 406 bps YoY to 20.8% lower than I-direct estimates of 23% due to unexpected growth in other expenditure. • Trent Hypermarket, the equally owned joint venture between Tata Group and UK's Tesco plans to invest | 250 crore to open more stores in India • Wipro plans to ramp up its Odisha centre headcount by 4000 from around 100 currently • EPC Industrie is expected to report a robust Q3FY15 performance post a subdued Q2FY15. Sales are expected at | 51.6 crore, up 20% YoY with EBITDA margins at 6%, up 160 bps YoY • UltraTech is expected to report 9.7% revenue growth. PAT is expected at | 421 crore (up 14.1%YoY) Sensex Nifty 22-Jan 25000 20-Jan 26000 8000 16-Jan 27000 8200 14-Jan 28000 8400 12-Jan 29000 8600 8-Jan 30000 8800 6-Jan 9000 31-Dec Markets Yesterday • Domestic markets ended positive touching a new high buoyed by buying in blue chips, optimism that the government will continue with the reform agenda and on reports that the government may raise the limit on foreign holding of Indian corporate bonds • US markets ended positive following the European Central Bank’s President’s announcement of an expanded asset purchase programme Today’s Highlights 29-Dec Market Outlook The Indian markets are expected to remain positive in today's session on the back of higher than estimated ECB stimulus. This may keep global liquidity benign and FII inflows may continue. However, Greece election outcome on January 25 will also be an important factor. NSE (LHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd) 29,006 28,889 0.4 5.5 5.5 17.4 8,761 8,730 0.4 5.8 5.8 17.3 Institutional Activity FII (| cr) DII (| cr) CY13 112,221 -73,385 CY14 YTD CY15 Yesterday Last 5 Days 99,525 4,711 2,065 6,714 -30,570 -2,310 -1,350 -3,594 World Indices – Monthly performance France 4,553 7.0% U.K. 6,797 3.3% Shanghai 3,362 6.9% Nasdaq 4,750 -0.6% Germany 10,436 5.8% Kospi 1,935 -1.1% NSE 8,761 5.3% Dow Jones 17,814 -1.4% BSE 29,006 4.7% Nikkei 17,474 -1.7% Nifty Heat Map United Spirits 3,549.1 Tata Motors 566.5 Tata Steel 6.3% 2.7% 403.4 1.6% Power Grid 148.4 Grasim Ind 3,809.4 Indusind Bank 846.3 Hindalco Bajaj Auto GAIL HCL Tech 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 143.5 0.2% 2,444.3 -0.1% 431.1 -0.6% 1,665.7 -1.3% Sun Pharma Ultratech Lupin Ambuja Cement BHEL M&M HDFC Bank Tata power Bank of Baroda Tech M. 920.1 3.8% 3,122.5 2.2% 1,503.5 1.3% 249.0 1.0% 284.5 0.7% 1,330.0 0.4% 1,021.3 0.1% 83.3 -0.1% 223.9 -0.8% 2,758.1 -1.4% DLF ONGC Infosys ACC JSPL 148.6 3.4% 352.9 2.0% 2,196.5 1.2% 1,558.8 0.9% 153.7 0.6% ICICI Bank 369.8 Cairn India 238.5 SBI NMDC PNB 0.4% 0.0% 324.7 -0.5% 137.0 -0.9% 212.8 -1.5% ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Axis Bank Asian Paints Coal India Dr Reddy L&T HUL TCS ITC Maruti NTPC 564.8 3.2% 867.2 1.9% 396.4 1.2% 3,361.3 0.8% 1,663.3 0.5% 944.7 0.3% 2,513.6 0.0% 350.7 -0.6% 3,597.3 -1.0% 140.2 -2.3% IDFC Cipla Wipro Sesa Sterlite BPCL 174.8 2.8% 654.8 1.8% 594.6 1.0% 201.1 0.7% 657.1 0.4% Bharti Airtel 370.0 Kotak Bank 1,387.7 HDFC Ltd Hero Moto RIL 0.3% 0.0% 1,279.7 -0.6% 2,838.9 -1.3% 883.8 -2.5% Markets Today Close Previous Commodities Gold (|/10 gm) Silver (|/kg) Crude ($/barrel) Copper ($/tonne) Currency USD/INR EUR/USD USD/YEN ADRs HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Tata Motors Infosys Dr Reddys Labs Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) 28,558 39,534 49.6 5696.5 28,356 39,684 48.5 5801 0.7 -0.4 2.1 -1.8 5.6 8.3 -13.6 -10.5 5.6 8.3 -13.6 -10.5 61.71 1.14 118.34 61.64 1.14 118.49 0.1 0.0 -0.1 2.2 -6.1 1.2 2.2 -6.1 1.2 60.0 12.6 48.8 35.8 54.5 59.0 12.3 46.8 35.2 54.0 1.5 2.6 4.4 1.7 1.0 16.5 NA 13.0 9.5 7.5 16.3 NA 10.6 11.9 7.0 Sectoral Index Sector 3,295 18,133 4,482 20,413 3,557 19,255 15-Jan 16-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan BSE Cash NSE Cash NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) 100000 0 15-Jan 16-Jan 19-Jan 251,234 200000 267,242 300000 290,287 400000 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan NSE Derivative Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Close Previous Change % Change Volume Auto 19807.2 19666.5 140.7 0.7 1943000 Banks 22804.8 22721.2 83.6 0.4 5218000 BSE Small Cap 11449.5 11422.9 26.6 0.2 65739000 Capital Goods 16794.1 16607.3 186.8 1.1 46460000 Consumer Durables 10295.4 10395.0 -99.5 -1.0 616000 8093.7 8077.7 16.0 0.2 3571000 1340000 FMCG 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 3,488 15,572 Prior Values 5,251.34bln IN -7.8bln mo 25.96bln $ 319.48bln $ 5.70% 4.50% 42.82bln $ -4.20% -7.60% -34.6bln $ 16.86bln $ 0.60% -4.90% 0.00% 2.04% 4.00% 8.00% 7.00% 191,946 Latest Values 10.1bln mo 25.4bln $ 5.30% 4.70% 34.83bln $ 3.80% 3.00% 38.6bln $ 9.43bln $ 5.20% -7.82% 0.11% 1.57% 7.75% 6.75% 4,136 19,228 Release Date 30-Jan 03~08Dec 15-Jan 23-Jan 28-Nov 30-May 15-Jan 12-Jan 12-Jan 03~08Dec 15-Jan 14-Jan 14-Jan 14-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 15-Jan 15-Jan 206,268 Period Dec Q3 Dec w/e Q2 12M Dec Nov Nov Q3 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec N/A N/A N/A 4,306 21,367 Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Key Domestic Economic Indicator Fed Fiscal Deficit Current Account Exports - USD FX Reserves, USD Final GDP Quarterly yy GDP Annual Imports - USD Industrial Output yy Manufacturing Output Trade Deficit - RBI Trade Deficit Govt - USD WPI Food yy WPI Fuel yy WPI Inflation yy WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy RBI Cash Reserve Ratio RBI Repo Rate RBI Reverse Repo Rate 372,000 Key Data Points Healthcare 15436.9 15181.0 255.9 1.7 IT 11191.1 11141.5 49.6 0.4 621000 Metals 10420.4 10351.0 69.4 0.7 3682000 Mid Cap 10710.2 10702.2 8.0 0.1 113754000 Oil & Gas 9878.3 9954.9 -76.5 -0.8 1811000 Power 2162.3 2157.5 4.8 0.2 50850000 PSU 8357.5 8337.3 20.2 0.2 13422000 Real Estate 1648.7 1639.7 8.9 0.5 11575000 9.0 8.9 Capital Goods Real Estate Consumer Auto Banks Healthcare Mid Cap IT Power BSE Small Cap FMCG PSU -2.2 Oil & Gas Metals -3.1 -4.0 7.1 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.2 4.5 3.5 1.6 -2.0 0.0 2.0 (%) 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Key News for Today Company/Industry HCL Tech News HCL Tech (HCLT) expects a change in its pyramid structure over the next couple of years ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research View The company may rationalise testingrelated staff likely due to redundancy and could replace the same with domain experts focusing on newer technologies. This could alter the pyramid structure and margin profile over the longer term Impact Sensex Chart Technical Outlook We said, "Strength sustaining above the candle to continue existing positive bias..." The index opened above the previous candle. Maintaining the positive territory, it traded volatile but managed to end 117 points or 0.4% higher. The pharma and capital goods indices outperformed, up 1%+. The broader indices and A/D ratio ended even. The action formed a small Bull candle similar to the previous day. With a higher high-low, the bias continues to be positive even at new high levels. With positive global cues, today's action may open up positive or gap-up. Watch, however, if the higher levels attract some profit-booking. If the index is able to hold the positive zone, it will attract buying on dips. Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Index/Stocks Close 29006.02 8761.4 1558.80 518.6 47.25 1829.65 128.10 91.95 1241.70 231.05 272.95 63.10 867.15 1181.10 2444.30 223.85 298.70 1468.30 SENSEX NIFTY ACC ADANI ENTER. ADANI POWER ADITYA BIRLA ALLAHABAD BANK ANDHRA BANK APOLLO HOSPITALS APOLLO TYRES ARVIND ASHOK LEYLAND ASIAN PAINTS AUROBINDO PHARMA BAJAJ AUTO BOB BOI BATA INDIA S1 28954.10 8746 1546.45 517.15 47.20 1813.35 126.55 91.00 1240.10 228.20 268.45 62.50 867.20 1179.75 2451.10 220.50 295.50 1454.85 S2 28912.05 8734.2 1538.15 513.3 46.60 1799.95 125.95 90.40 1234.10 226.15 266.10 61.80 860.00 1172.30 2437.80 217.90 293.25 1437.45 R1 29038.15 8769.6 1563.05 524.9 48.35 1832.30 128.70 92.20 1252.05 231.15 273.30 63.20 881.60 1194.65 2477.65 224.15 299.35 1471.85 R2 29080.20 8781.35 1571.35 527.3 48.60 1841.80 129.75 92.85 1258.85 232.60 275.70 63.60 886.15 1202.95 2491.95 225.95 301.25 1480.35 Trend Neutral Neutral Neutral +ve +ve -ve -ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve +ve +ve +ve -ve -ve -ve Nifty Trend Trend Reversal Support Resistance 20 Days EMA 200 days EMA Intraday Short Term Up 8760 8790-8760 8850-8880 0 0 Up 8380 8380 8900 8438 7771 Advances / Declines Advances 1333 699 BSE NSE Declines 1589 812 Daily Technical Calls 1. Buy Aurobindo Pharma above 1186.00 2. Buy Exide Industries above 192.50 3. Buy Ambuja Cement above 250.50 *All recommendations are of January Future See Momentum Pick for more details Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – January 2014 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 150.0 Intraday Derivative Strategy 103 105 58 64 90 73 70 27 4 88 8 1 0 100.0 Buy YESBAN JAN Fut at 864.00-865.00 View: Bullish Strategy: Buy Future Target 1: 871 Target 2: 880 Stop Loss: 857 Market Lot: 500 CMP : 858 36 38 87 50.0 0.0 Call Put 11 6 50.0 100.0 Sell VOLTAS JAN Fut at 250.00-251.00 View: Bearish Strategy: Sell Future Target 1: 247.50 Target 2: 244 Stop Loss: 254.50 Market Lot: 1000 CMP : 253 See Daily Derivatives for more details ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Unchanged 111 77 Results/Events Calendar 05 Monday Japan Manu. PMI 0 0 0 0 12 26 0 0 0 0 0 Tuesday 20 Monday 14 January Tuesday 21 January Tuesday 27 Monday 03 Monday January Wednesday 28 January Tuesday January Wednesday 04 Tuesday February Wednesday Tata Power Gujarat Pipavav Bharti Airtel Aurobindo Pharma 0 Hero Motocorp Lupin PNB, ACC, Shree Cement 0 0 Major Economic Events this week 29 23 January January Friday January Friday EPC Industrie, Wabco Colgate, UltraTech Cement India Eight Infra. Industries China Manufacturing PMI US Manufacturing PMI 30 January Thursday January Friday Mahindra Lifespace, NTPC JSW Steel, Sun TV, BOB Shoppers Stop, PVR Dabur, Indoco Remedies Kansai Nerolac 06 February Thursday PTC India 0 0 0 0 Friday Axis bank, Wipro, V-Guard Reliance Ind., Oberoi Realty US Ind. Prod. MoM US Manufacturing Prod US CPI YoY Thursday Dr. Reddy's Lab, Essel Pro. HDFC, IDFC, Asian Paints Kansai, Gandhi Sp. Tubes Ashok Leyland,Gateway Dist. Sesa Sterlite, TajGVK Hotels 05 16 January Thursday Biocon, Cairn India Somany Ceramics Dish TV, VST Industries Essar Ports US Initial Jobless Claims Torrent Pharma, EIH Pidilite Industries, Sintex Jyothy Labs, Havells India Ajanta Pharma Aban Offshore February 22 January Infosys India Imports/Exports YoY China CPI YoY UK Trade Balance UK Industrial Prod. YoY TCS, Cyient, HSIL Bajaj Auto, DB Corp Federal Bank, PTC India Fin. US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims Zee Entertainment TTK Prestige, ITC Siyaram Silk KPIT 0 Maruti Suzuki Amara Raja, Idea Cellular Titan Company UK GDP YoY US Service PMI February 15 January Wednesday 09 January Thursday China Trade Balance US Initial Jobless Claims US Continuing Claims Eurozone PPI YoY 0 Kajaria Ceramics, NIIT Tech TV18, LIC Housing Finance Yes Bank India WPI YoY Eurozone Industrial Prod. YoY Kotak Mahindra Bank Rallis India South Indian Bank Jindal Saw China GDP & Ind. Prod YoY January 08 January Wednesday US Trade Balance Eurozone CPI YoY 0 0 0 IndusInd Bank, DCB Bank UK CPI YoY UK PPI YoY 0 0 January Japan Trade Balance Japan Import/Export YoY 0 0 0 02 13 Monday InfoEdge, Mindtree Hindustan Zinc HUL, Atul Auto CCL Products ECB Current Account 07 January HSBC India Services PMI HSBC India Composite PMI HSBC China Services PMI Markit US Services PMI Markit Japan Services PMI January India Industrial Prod. YoY India CPI YoY 0 0 0 19 06 January February Friday Apollo Tyres, TV Today Tata Steel Jet Airways 0 0 10 January 17 January Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Saturday Unichem Labs Symphony Ltd 0 0 0 24 January Saturday United Spirits Gati, Tata Coffee City Union Bank Persistent Systems 0 31 January Saturday Exide Industries Divi's Labs 0 0 0 07 February Saturday IPCA Labs, JK cement VA Tech Wabag 0 0 0 Result Preview Date 19-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 20-Jan 22-Jan 22-Jan Event Industrial Production YoY ECB Current Account SA Industrial Production YoY GDP YoY Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims CountryPeriod JN Nov F EC Nov CH Dec CH 4Q US 17-Jan US 10-Jan Actual Expected -3.70% -18.1B -7.90% 7.40% 7.30% 7.20% 307K 300K 2443K 2400K Date 23-Jan 23-Jan 23-Jan 23-Jan 23-Jan Event CountryPeriod Eight Infrastructure Industries IN Dec HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH Jan P Markit/JMMA Japan ManufactuJN Jan P Markit Eurozone Manufacturing EC Jan P Markit US Manufacturing PMI US Jan P Expected Previous -6.70% 49.5 49.6 -52.0 51.0 50.6 54.0 53.9 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Company Wabco India Colgate Palmolive UltraTech Cem Persistent Sys. * United Spirits * City Union Bank * Revenue Q3FY15E 339.0 1,016.5 5,250 495.6 2,227.6 213.0 EBITDA Chg(%) YoY QoQ Q3FY15E 30.6 5.0 57.7 15.0 2.3 185.3 9.7 -2.4 889.2 14.5 6.8 103.9 -3.5 2.3 242.2 7.8 3.3 180.4 PAT Chg(%) YoY QoQ Q3FY15E 60.1 13.7 39.0 23.1 -0.6 130.9 16.4 7.2 421.8 -13.2 8.6 75.1 9.1 3.8 57.0 33.9 3.3 98.9 * - Results will be declared on 24th Jan, 2014 (Saturday) Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC; * - Standalone Recent Releases Date Report 22 January 2015 Result Update – TTK Prestige 22 January 2015 Result Update – Rallis India 22 January 2015 Result Update – ITC Ltd 22 January 2015 Result Update – Jindal Saw 22 January 2015 Result Update – Zee Entertainment Ltd Chg(%) YoY QoQ 93.0 24.8 16.0 1.0 14.1 2.9 17 5.3 -12.2 LP 11.1 5.5 Research Product Basket Research Perspective Product Pre-market view & Recommendation Opening Bell Daily Calls Daily Derivative Daily comprehensive snapshot containing information & in-depth analysis of Indian & US markets, major headlines, technical view, derivatives statistics, economic indicators, commodities, market indicators, domestic & global events. Features four stocks & Nifty view with a trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading strategy for a day in the futures & options segment based on news events, market trends, technical & other factors governing movements in stocks. Frequency Time frame Avg. Returns objective Location on ICICIdirect.com Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day - Market Page, Trading PageScroller & iCLICK-2-GAIN Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Pre-market open – Daily 1 Day 2-3 % Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 Days 1 - 2% Daily 1 – 2 Days 1 - 2% Intraday Recommendation BTST Calls Margin Calls Derivative Calls Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Provides simplified derivative strategies such as spreads and covered calls Derivative Strategies Weekly & Monthly recommendations Weekly Calls Weekly Technicals Weekly Derivatives Market Trends Global Derivatives Monthly Technical’s Technical trends for a week considering key technical indicators & statistical information Features stocks with a trading outlook for a week based on short-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading opportunities in futures & options segment based on data analysis, overall market trend, volatility & open interest positions of securities. Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis along with statistical inputs. Derivatives outlook on global equity indices, currencies and commodities. Also, elaborating the likely impact on the Indian bourses. Trading outlook for a month based on medium-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Medium & Long term recommendations Tecno Funda On basis of Technical and Fundamental whenever opportunity occurs we give these Pick/Technical calls Deliver Call Positional Derivatives Stocks on the move Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers vis a vis index along with positional recommendation on Stocks/Nifty. Covers stocks, which are likely to show significant upward movement in the next 15 days due to change in trader sentiment. Detailed Company Report Fundamental report understanding the business model and future prospects of the company & valuations. Equity Model Portfolio High Dividend Yield Stocks A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large cap, midcap and diversified Features high dividend yielding stocks for assured returns on investment Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN iClick-2-Gain Weekly 1-7 days 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Weekly 1-7 days 4 – 5% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days - Trading Page Monthly 30 days 10% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iClick-2-Invest Not regularly recommended 3 months 20% Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN Fortnightly Fortnightly – every alternate Wednesday > 7-15 days 5 – 7% When published > 1 year > 20% & above Quarterly Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Pankaj Pandey Head – Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. 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